E] KHOA HQC - CONG NGHf: Khai thac hop ly THUY DIEN BAC THANG S O N LA - HOA B i N H TRANTRlDUNG Gidi thieu Trong ban bao cao "De an tinh toan khai thac thuy dien bac thang San La - Hoa Binh", Trung tam Oieu He thong dien quoc gia, thang 8/2010 [TK1] thUc hien V6i vai tro phan bien, danh gia va nhan xet tong quat ve bao cao nay, toi da viet " dac diem cua doi tuong nghien CU'U la tinh ngau nhien cua cac diJIieu dau vao; dexCily nhQng van de co ban chat ngau nhien, ta can chia nho khoang dieu hanh, theo chu ky van hanh (cac thang tich nUdc, xa ni/dc, lu) va theo thdi doan ngan (chang han 10 ngay) d e e d ccr hoi dieu chinh co bien d p n g ; de x i i ly nhQng van de co ban chat ngau nhien nhQ iQu luang nQde vao ho chQa, can mo hinh hoa doi tQOng nghien cQu theo mo hinh ngau nhien va ky thuat mo phong Monte Carlo la each tiep can dung dan nha't " Bai bao dQ6i day trinh bay t o m tat nhQng ket qua tinh toan khai thac thuy dien bac thang Son La - Hoa Binh (SL-HB) theo cac dinh hQ6ng noi tren Cac thong so ky thuat to may phat dien, thong so ho chQa nQde, quan he mQc nQde iQu.vv dung tfnh toan da duoc giai ti'ch hoa va dQa tren so lieu ban dau cho [TK1] Chu6i dQ lieu dong ehay hon mot tram nam (tQ 1903 den 2007) eua song Da tai tram thuy van Pa Vinh va tram thuy van Hoa Binh eho [TK1] duoc dung nhQ la Input data Mot dieu can nhan manh la, neu co nhQng nha may thuy dien phia tren Son La (thuocTrung Quoc) thi ket qua tinh toan co the khae di vi dQ lieu dong ehay vao ho Son La se phu thupc vao quy tac van hanh eua nha may thuy dien nam tren no Chfnh VI vay, toi eung da iQu y ban nhan xet, danh gia [TK1] la" SQco mat eua cac nha thuy dien tren cung dong song se lam bien dang lu tU nhien (co the on hoa hon nhQng eung eo trQdng hop gay lu nhan tao) Hon nQa ta cung can biet each hanh xQ hay quy trinh van hanh eua it nhat mot nha may thuy dien phi'a tren Son La." 24 Dien A Ddi song So tinh toan Thuy dien bae thang Son La - Hoa Binh (sau gpi tat la td hop) dflpc tinh toan theo sd dd Hinh Muc tieu cua tinh toan la tim kiem va lUa chon tap mflc nflde thflong Iflu cac hd chfla chu ky tinh toan eho eflc dai tdng nang Ifldng cua td hdp va thoa man cac yeu cau: mflc nfldc chdng lu eua ban than hd chfla va mflc nfldc chdng ICi du; Iflu Iflpng nfldc phat dien tdi thieu eho tfldi tieu; can bang nang Iflpng phu hpp vdi cac ngudn phat dien ed he thdng dien tflng thdi doan Chuoi dong ehay 100 nam {Q_sl} HdSON LA dieu khien tap bien { Zt SL} — > M a x [IEtsL+IEt_HB] {QpdJL } (Q.HBI Hd HOA BiNH dieu khien tap bien {ZtBhl —->Max[lEtsL+lEtHB] Hinh Cau true md hinh tinh toan khai thac thuy dien bac thang Sdn La- Hoa Binh KHOA HQC - CONG NGHt „ Trong hinh 1, thupng Iflu hd chfla d thdi doan eudi N la Z\ va chudi dfl lieu ddng ehay { Q^} vao hd chfla nflde Hay tim gia tri nghiem eua (N -1) bien doe lap la mflc nflde thfldng Iflu hd chfla nfldc Z = {Z[,Z'- .Z^ Z ^ _ j } sad cho eflc dai tdng nang Ifldng chu ky dieu tiet dd Khi dd md hinh toan ed dang quy hoach phi tuyen nhfl dfldi day: { Z ; - ^ ' t=1,2, N-1 } v a { Z',-"' t = 1,2, N-1} tap cac bien dieu khien la mflc nflde thfldng Iflu hd chfla Sdn La, Hda Binh d eudi eae thdi doan t = 1,2, , N-1 (vl mflc nfldc eudi d thdi doan N la Z^r^''^Z^-"'^ vdi N la sd thdi doan ehu ky tinh toan cho trflde) • { Q sJ la chudi dfl lieu ddng ehay vao hd Son La dotaitramtTluy van PaVinh va{Q ^^lla chudi dfl lieu ddng ehay bd sung vao hd Hoa Binh f dflpc tinh tfl sfl chenh lech ddng ehay tai tram thuy van Hoa Binh & PaVinh) Ddng ehay bd xung thfldng dflpc gpi la ddng ehay "khu gifla" {Q ^ ^J la chudi gia tri ddng ehay phat dien eua thuy dien Son La, nd la bien phu thude vao tap bien dieu khien {Z, ^^} Max £ ^ , ( e , , Z / , Z ; ) r = 1.2.3 N (1) Vdi cac rang budc > Sfl can bang nang Ifldng HTO hoac nang Ifldng bao dam (firm energy) theo tan suat qui djnh (chang han 90%) hoac theo nhu cau tfldi nflde phia Iflu (neu ed) • lEj ji^va I Ej ^g lan Iflpt la tdng nang Iflong phat dien cua thuy dien Sd~n La va thuy dien Hoa Binh Cau true hinh cho thay mot Ifla chpn Z cua mdt phan tfl eua td hop deu ed tae ddng de'n ham mue: Z^^^ ^ Qpa.sL ^ Z,_„, - Q^,_„, - Max [ lE,^^ + Z E,_„, ] Mo hinh & thuat toan va chUOng trinh tfnh I vi^/ ^ t ^ I ' (2) m; > Cae thdng sd hd chfla nfldc Md hinh todn (3) Z„ < Z,' < Z _ Nhfl da dflpc trinh bay eae tham khcio [TK2], [TK3], md hinh dieu tiet tdi flu thuy dien mot ehu ky dieu tiet cd N thdi doan phat bieu nhfl sau: Cho trflde Sdn La - Hoa Binh, md hinh (1), (2), (3) se ed dang ® mflc nfldc thflong Iflu hd chfla ban dau Z[ nhfl sau: Trong trfldng hpp cu the cua bac thang thuy dien va mflc nfldc Max \Y.^','-{Q','X-''^^r'')' X^,™(g,™,z;'-™,z;-™) vdi eae rang bupe Ar"^ = E mpi Q_hb mgatiori > = Q mgatKXi m r Z hb do-rtTi •; = hb max Z hb do'ATi >= Z N J nwi iZ_si_dov.Ti (/, (mVs) - -*, \ Mflc nfldc dau thang chin hd SL:195 m; cudi thang 12:215 m; s d t d may e d t h e tham gia phat dien 3-4 Mflc nfldc dau thang chin hd HB:100 m; eudi thang 12:115 m; s d t d may e d t h e tham gia phat dien 5-6 Bang Cac dieu kien tinh toan eae thang tich nflde phu hop vdi h e t h d n g dien Viet Nam nam 2012 Hinh dfldi day tdng hpp ket qua tinh toan dien bien mflc nflde Thflpng Iflu hd SL va HB cac thang tich nflde chudi thuy van 101 nam (1903-2003) Tren hinh ed ve sau dfldng mflc nfldc thfldng Ifl hd chfla : Ba dfldng tren cho hd SL, ba dfldng dfldi eho hd HB Gia tri "30 cao cua mflc nfldc ghi rd bang phia dfldi Cac dfldng lien (—) the hien ket qua mflc nflde tinh toan eao nhat va thap nhat theo d f l lieu chudi ddng ehay 101 nam Cac dfldng dut doan (—95% ) nam gifla hai dfldng lien nham khang dinh rang cd tdi 95 % sd nam tinh toan, eao mflc nfldc thflong Iflu hd chfla nam tren cac dfldng (—95% ) Vdi ket qua cd the ndi rang, neu hieu rd quy luat t f l nhien, khai thac hpp ly tiem nang cdng trinh thi se ludn ludn dam bao tich nflde day hd Muc nuac (Tieu tiet toi uu ho Som L a-Hoa Binh cac thnng tich nuoc 1 _ - - - ^ ' ^ y^a, " j \ i \ 1 fOff.ff \ ' ; ' /Vffff rtaca i ! ! I fta.o ^ / tee 3fyj S i ^ j au^ Ocj Oij A^j' ^A^j »faj» afs.s *f.S^ a/sa afs.M tfSJl ^SJf M/S.f M/.sa a/sa a/sa S ^ J ^ j «u-^ ft/* ftaj /96.x »»SJ aasj aatJ x/a£ t/gy **^ „^M a/*a SCff /mf.ff ff^j ffS* rf^TS ff.SM //S.B //S.0 /fS.O //.TJi //sa //sa r/sa >wr# JIT* 49S ft*£ /0«y /gfj /M£ //a.f //tj //S£ //*j f/*./ faj Mtf MS MM ar/ Mf* tf* M/.I */J ars a/s a/j* f»f f»* /WW f«t //» f/J /VJ- /fS f/S ffS //s ffj I f j- '' XSBjL^^ - - - ^^^ s^ ôằ., ã^fl jM,Sy JMLJC9 3L^ 3UJ 33t^ Hinh Mflc nflde dieu tiet tdi flu hd Sdn La-Hoa Binh cac thang tich nflde Dien A Ddi sdng 29 S KHOA HOC - CONG NGHE Phan bd tan xuat ky vpng nang Iflpng va phan bd ky vpng nang lupng edng ddn va dae trflng thdng ke ky vpng nang Iflpng cuatdhppcdng trinh cae thang tich nflde cho tren hinh 7.Tfl hinh tha'y rang giai ky vpng nang Iflpng kha phan tan (tfl 2,425,400 den max 9,654,500 MWh) va cd xu hfldng lech ve ben trai, ed nghia sd nam nang Iflpng phat dien thap se nhieu hon sd nam phat dien eao Cac tham so dac trUng thong ke cua chuoi nang lUOng (MWh) cac thang tfch nudc: tCr thang den 12 Phan bo tan xuat & phan bo nang hiong cong don cac tliang tich niroc Phan bo nang lugng cong don Max: 9,654,500 Min: 2,425,400 Trung binh: 5,431,700 Sai lech chuan 1,526,700 Khoang tin cay 95% Q(.025): 2,834,800 Q(.975): 8,389,800 Khoang tin cay 90% Q(.05):3,035,800 Q(.95): 7,771,900 Kv vong nfing lu-gng cflc tliang tidi nirac (MWh) Hinh Tham sd thdng ke & phan bd tan xuat chudi nang Iflpng cae thang tich nfldc D Oanh gia kha nang phat dien hang nam cua bac thang thuy dien SL-HB Tfl nhflng tinh toan theo chu ky dieu tiet eae thang xa nflde (dau thang den cudi thang 6), eae thang mua lu (dau thang den eudi thang 8), cac thang tich nflde (dau thang den cudi thang 12) cd the danh gia kha nang phat dien hang nam cua td hpp bae thang thuy dien SL-HB nhfl cho hinh 8.a va hinh 8.b Hinh 8.a the hien phan bd tan xuat (theo tinh toan) ky vpng nang Iflpng va phan bd ky vpng nang Iflpng cdng ddn va dac trflng thdng ke nang Iflong hang nam cua td hpp cdng trinh Tfl hinh 8.a thay rang giai ky vpng nang Ifldng kha phan tan (tfl 13,947,700 den max 22,351,400 MWh) va ed xu hfldng lech ve ben trai, cd nghTa sd nam nang Ifldng phat dien thap se nhieu hdn ddi chut so vdi sd nam phat dien eao Phan bd tan xuat tfnh toan hinh 8.a ed the xap xi vdi ham mat dp phan phdi xac suat chuan hinh 8.b dfla theo tieu ehuan danh gia sfl phiJ hpp Kolmogorov-Smirnoff Cac tham so' dac trflng thdng ke cua chuoi nang lUdng (MWh) kha nang phat dien hang nam Max:22,351,381 Min:13,947,761 Trung binh:18,309,031 Sai lech chuan:l,832,758 Khoang tin cay 95% Q(.025): 14,836,056 Q(.975): 21,796,696 Khoang tin cay 90% Q(.05): 15,059,075 Q(.95): 21,601,986 Hinli 8.a Plian bd tan suat tinli toaii 30 Dien A Ddi song KHOA HOC - CONG NGHf: Q Phan bd tan xuat tinh toan hinh 8.a ed the xap xi vdi ham mat dp phan phdi xac suat chuan hinh 8.b dfla theo tieu chuan danh gia sfl phu hop Kolmogorov-Smirnoff Ham (Normal ky v p n g chuan o mat dp phan bd xac suat chuan Probability Distribution) ed Gia tri (trung binh): 18,309,031; sai lech = 1,832,758 (xin xem hinh 8.b) Hinh 8.b Ham mat phan bo ly thm et (ham chuan Nonnal) Hinh Oanh gia kha nang phat dien hang nam cua td hdp thuy dien bae thang SL-HB Ldi binh ngan Bae thang thuy dien SL-HB la ngudn phat dien quan trpng he thdng dien Viet Nam vai nam tdi day Chi cd hieu biet day du va chinh xac ve kha nang eung nhfl gidi han eua edng trinh mdi ed the khai thac hdp ly nd Hy vpng rang bai bao se la ngudn tham khao bd ich eho ban doc quan tam Tdi liiu tham khao: "De an tinh toan khai thac thuy dien bac thang Son La - Hoa Binh", ddn vi thflc hien: Trung tam dieu dp He thdng dien qude gia, thang 8/2010 M d hinh bat dinh tinh toan dieu tiet hd chfla nfldc nha may thuy dien dieu kien thdng tin bat dinh-Tran Tri Dung, tap ehi edng nghe Dien Iflc sd 2/ 2006 Sach "Excel Solver cho ky sfl'-tae gia Tran Tri Dung, Nha xuait ban Khoa hoe Ky thuat 7/ 2005 Dien A Ddi song 31 ... cae thang xa nfldc (thang den thang 6), eae thang mua lu (thang va 8), cae thang tich nflde (thang den thang 12) va cudi cung la tdng hpp ea nam A Cac thang xa nUdc (tii dau thang den cudi thang. .. chu ky dieu tiet: cac thang xa nfldc (thang den thang 6); cac thang mua lu (thang 7, 8); eae thang tich nflde (thang den thang 12) Mdi thdi doan tfnh toan dflpc quy fldc la 10 Xin xem hinh 2,... gian tinh la kha lau Chang han, de tinh toan ehu ky cac thang xa nflde cua td hopSL- HB (tfl thang den thang 6) gdm 18 thdi doan ( thang x thdi doan = 18 thdi doan) sd bien can tim la hd x 18