UNG DUNG CRYSTAL BALL XAC DDUH GHE DO VAN HANH TOI UU PHAT DIEN CHO HO CHUA THAC BA, TUYB\I QUANG VA BAG THANG HO CHUA SON LA, HOA BJNH CO TiNH DB\I YEU CAU CAP NUDC HA DU Hoang Thanh Tung'''', Ha Van Kh[.]
UNG DUNG CRYSTAL BALL XAC DDUH GHE DO VAN HANH TOI UU PHAT DIEN CHO HO CHUA THAC BA, TUYB\I QUANG VA BAG THANG HO CHUA SON LA, HOA BJNH CO TiNH DB\I YEU CAU CAP NUDC HA DU Hoang Thanh Tung', Ha Van Khoi', Nguyen Thanh Hai' Tom tat: Van hdnh tdi uu ho chira da muc tieu vd hi thdng ho chua Id mpt chd de dirge nhieu nhd nghien ciru vd ngodi nudc quan tdm nhieu ndm gdn day nhdm dem lgi nhirng hi4u qud kinh te - xa hpi cao nhdt cho cong tdc van hdnh ho chira Bai bdo ndy trinh bdy kel qud nghien cuu iing dung phdn mem Crystal Ball xdc djnh che dp van hdnh tdi icuphdt dien cho ho chira Thdc Bd, Tuyen Quang vd bgc thang ho chua San La, Hoa Binh co tinh den yeu cdu cdp mcdc hg du Crystal Ball Id phdn mem toi iru vd phdn tich riii ro rdt mgnh kinh le vd lan ddu lien dugc nhom tdc gid dp dung thdnh cong cho van hdnh cdc hd chica noi tren Kel qud dgi dugc Id ticang doi tot so v&i cdc mo hinh toi uu sir dung hi?n vi mo hinh ndy cho phep phdn tich dp tin cdy vd dua che dp van hdnh toi uu v&i cdc mux: ddm bdo khdc nhdm ho tra quyet dinh van hdnh ho chira Tir khoa: Hda Binh, Son La, Thdc Bd, Tuyen Quang, Crystal Ball MO BAU Trong quy hoach va quan ly tai nguyen nudc viec van banh cac ho chira nuac pbuc vu cho cac muc dich khac ddng mot vai tro het sire quan trpng Hau het cac ho chiia dupc xay dung phyc vu cho da myc tieu, hau bet cac muc tieu co mau thudn v6i ve cac yeu cau khai thac sii dung ho chiia Mpt so mau thuan viec van banh ho chiia cd the ke den bao gom: i) mau thuan vi?c sii dyng dung tich ho chiia kbi ho chira co dung tich ban che lai phai thoa man nhieu muc tieu nhu phat di$n va chong lu; ii) mau thuan giua cac muc tieu cap nudc che dp van hanh cap nudc cho cac muc lieu khac (cap nudc cho nong nghidp thi theo thdi vu, tinh hinh mua ndng, nhung cho phat dien lai dya tren nhu cau thay ddi theo ngay, tuan, hay miia); va iii) mau thuan ciing mpt muc tieu nhu cdu nudc va lugng nudc d6n khong phai liic nao cung thoa man theo thdi gian, doi hoi vi?c tifit ki?m nudc kbi van hanh cac ho chira Doi vdi h? thong ho chira, viec van hanh cung can phai can nhac va xem xet mpt each hgp ly tren ca sd can ddi lugng nudc hi?n cd cac bo Ro rang, khong co mpt hp diing nudc nao l^i tuang Ibich hoan toan vdi hp khac Quy trinh van hanh ho can phai hudng dan cho ngudi dieu banh giai quyet cdc mau thudn Vi$c tim giai phap "thoa hi?p" giOa cac myc tieu la mpt yeu td quan trpng vi?c nang cao hi?u qua cua h? thdng ho chiia nudc ' Khoa Thuy vdn vd Tdi Nguyen nudc, Dgi HQC Thuy lgi Day Cling chinh la chu de dugc nhieu nha nghien ciiu va ngoai nudc quan tam nhieu nam qua nham dem lai hi?u qua kinh te xa hpi cao nhat Luu vuc song Hong la liru vuc sdng Idn thii hai cua Vi?t Nam va la luu vuc song co cac cong trinh thuy Igi va phdng chong lu lut hoan cbinb nhat nudc ta vdi cac ho chiia Idn da di vao vgn hanh nhu Scm La, Hoa Binh, Thac Ba va Tuyen Quang, h? thong de dieu, cac cong yinh phan lu, cham lu va cac he thong tudi tieu Idn Theo Quyet djnh So: I554/QDTTg cua Thil tudng Chinh phu phe duy?t Quy hoach thuy Igi vung ddng bdng sdng Hdng giai dogn 2012 2020 va dinh hudng din nam 2050 dilu kien bien doi khf hau, nudc bien dang tbi viec "Duy Iri hgp ly dong chdy ki$t Id vdn de mang linh chien luge doi vai on dinh vd phdt trien kinh ti xa hpi viing dong bdng song Hong" Muc tieu trudc mat den nam 2020 la phai van hanh hgp ly h? tbdng bo chira Idn tren thugng nguon song Hong (San La, Hoa Binh, Thac Ba, Tuyen Quang) kit bgp ky trieu cudng dieu tiet cap nudc miia ki?t, phyc vu san xuat vy Dong Xuan, dac bi?t cho giai do^in lir 10/1 den 28/2 hang nam, D8 gdp phan dat dugc cac myc tieu de nhu tren tbi vi?c nghien ciru v|in hanh h? thong hd chira tren song'Hong co mpt y nghTa quan trpng va nghien ciiu thir ngbi?m ap dyng phan mem Crystal Ball xay dyng che dp v^n hanh tdi uu cac ho chira Tuyen Quang, Thac Bd, va b^c thang hd chiia Son La, Hoa Binh phat di?n cd xet den nbu cau nudc d h^ du KHOA HOC K9 THUAT THUY iq\ VA MOI ItaiijHQ • sd 42 (9/2013) PHirONGPHAPNGHlfeNCCtJ V ^ hanh hd chua (VHHC) la mpt nhung van de dugc quan tam nhieu nhdt ljch sii hang tram nam ciia cdng tac quy ho^ch quan ly h? thong nguon nudc Nghien cuu v^n hdnh quan ly h? thdng ho chiia ludn phat trien theo thdi gian tir cac nghien ciiu dan gian tdi cac nghien ciiu gan day ve phuang phap van hanh toi uu h? thong hd chiia phyc vy da muc tieu Tren the gidi da cd rat nhiSu nghien ciiu ap dyng cac thu§l toan dieu khiln khac vao giai quyet bai toan van hanh hd chiia da muc tieu va he thong lien ho chiia Cac phuang phap da dugc John W Labadie [1], Trudng Dai hpc Bang Colorado tong k6t bao gdm: i) Nhom cdc phuang phdp toi uu ngdu nhiin dn (Implicit Stochastic Optimization) nhu: cac mo hinh quy hoach tuySn tinh (Linear Programming Models), cac mo hinh toi uu ddng chay mang (Network Flow Optimization Models), cac mo binh quy hoach phi tuyen (Nonlinear Programming Models), cac mo hinh quy hoach dgng rdi r?c (Discrete Dynamic Programming Model), cac mo hinh quy hoach dpng lien tuc (Diffirential Dynamic Programming Models), cac ly thuyet dieu khien toi uu rdi rac theo thdi gian (Discrete Time Optimal Control Theory); ii) Nhom cdc phuang phdp ngdu nhiin hi^n (Explicit Stochastic Optimization) nhu: cac mo hinh quy hoach tuyen tinh ngau nhien (Stochastic Linear Programming Models), cac mo hinh quy hoach dpng ngau nhien (Stochastic Dynamic Programming Models), cac mo hinh dieu khien toi uu ngau nhien (Stochastic Optimal Control Models) va iii) Nhdm lich hgp du bdo de van hdnh ho chua theo th&i gian thuc M^c dii da dat dugc nhiing tien bo vupt bac nghien ciiu van hanh ho da muc tieu va he thdng ho chira, nhung cho den khdng co mpt ldi giai chung cbo mpi h? thdng ma tiiy dac thii ciia timg he thong ma c6 cac ldi giai phii hgp Nhap so lieu Xay dyng rao hinh ddng chiy ngau nhien 6cn hb tir s6 li^u ljch sir (m6 hinh Monte Carlo") Xay dung mo hinh toi ini Crystal Ball (mo dun Opquest) Xay dyng mo hinh mo ph6ng vfin h^nh ho chiia cdc bang tinh lien ket Excel Mo hinh mo phong - toi iru van hanh ho chira Toi uu h6a san lui?ng di?n trung binh nSm T6i uu hoa san lirgng di?n trung binh nSm co xet den c^p nu6c du Phan tich dp tin cay phdt di?n va cap nuoc / dy bdo san lirgng di?n ©e xuat bieu dieu phoi toi iru Hinh So Hip cgn nghien cini Trong nghien ciru niy, nhdm tac gia lya chpn phuang phap ket bgp giifa cac mo hinh mo phong va mo binh to! uu bao gom: md hinb md phdng ddng chay den ho ngau nhien theo mo phong Monte Carlo, mo hinh mo phong h? thong ho chira, va mo hinh toi uu de xac djnh cha dp v^n hanh loi uu phat KHOA HQC Kf THUAT THUY LQl VA Mfll TRlrfmC - S6 42 (9/2013) di?n cac hd chira Tuyen Quang, Thac Ba va bac Cho phep long ghep cac thuylt todn toi uu (thupc thang ho cbiia Son La, Hoa Bmh co xet den nhu cau nhom cac phuong phip ngiu nhien hi?n neu tr8n) vao cap nudc h? du phyc vy san xukt vy Dong Xuan, dac cac bang tinh six dyng Modun toi uu Opquest Cac biet cbo giai doan tir 10/1 din 28/2 hang nam Phan ket qua dat dugc hi mo hinh ket hgp md phong va t6i m6m Crystal Ball da dugc su dung de xay dung md uu VHHC Iai tiep tuc dugc phan tich dp tm c§y de hinh ket ndi nhu minh hpa torn tat Sa dd xac dinb ch8 dp vgn hanh tdi uu iing vdi cac muc dam bao khac giup ho trg quyet dmh tiep can nghien cuu (Hinh 1) KET QUA VA THAO LU^N Crystal Ball la phan mem toi uu va phan tich nii ro 3.1 Xdy dung mo hinh mo phong dong chay dugc sir dyng nhieu phan tich kinh te ORACLE - Cong ty hang dau the gidi ve phan mem ngdu nhien din cdc hd chita Tuyen Quang, Thdc CO sd dir li?u phat tri^n [2] Phan mem co giao dien Bd vd bgc ihang hS chira San la, Hoa Binh (mo ngudi diing than thien, co modun tfch hgp bang phdng Monte Carlo) Nhom nghien ciiu da sir dyng md pbong Monte tinh Excel Thong qua siic manh toi uu va mo phong Crystal Ball da trd cong cy hi?u qua tay Carlo xay dung mo hinh mo phdng dong chay trung ciia nhiing nguai quyet djnh Phan mem Crystal binh 10 nglu nhien den cac hd cbiia tren dya Ball CO the dap irng dugc nhiing yeu cau cua bai toan tren chudi s6 lieu tbyc tir nam 1956 den 2009 toi uu van hanh ho chiia nhu: i) Cbo phep tao Ket qua minh hpa Bang dudi day cho thay chuoi ddng chay ngau nhien tu nhien den ho theo mo phan bo dong chay den hd San La thudng la phan bo phong Monte Carlo; ii) Cho phep xay dung mo binb cyc tri "Maximum Extreme" cac thang miia lu mo phong h6 chiia mpi each linh boat cac bang va phan bd chuin "normal" hoac "log normal" cbo tinb, rat de dang thay doi vdi cac dieu kien thuc te; iii) cac thing lai Bdng 1: Minh hga phdn bo dong chdy ngdu nhien din ho Scm La iheo mo phong Monler Carlo 10T6 20T6 30T6 10T7 2on Gamma Gamma Loqnorrhal Loqnormai Loqnormai Th6i gian Phan bo Location 202,25 Location 64.33 Location •685.65 Location -1079.19 Location •2083.67 Scale Shape 474,34 Scale 398.63 Mean 2653 84 Mean 2,78 Shape 5.18 Std Dev 1008.22 Std Dev 3430.45 1219.34 Mean 3840.05 Sld.Dev 1389.78 Thoi gian 3on 10T8 20T8 30T8 10T9 Phan bo Loqnormai Beta Maximum Extreme Logistic Gamma Location 547.81 Minimum 824 63 Likeliest 3476.02 Mean 3583.85 Location 188.04 Mean 4164,49 Maximum 9083.61 Scale 1377.01 Scale 746.8 Std Dev, 1380,02 Alpha 3.14 Beta 4.26 Scale 428.28 Shape 6.4 Thoi qian 20T9 30T9 10T10 20T10 30T10 PhSn b6 Gamma Beta Loqnonral Loqnormai Loqnormai Location 419,12 Minimum 878.49 Location 600.96 Location 688.24 Scale 317,3 Maximum 4574.03 Mean 1837.17 Mean 1767.15 Mean Shape 6,31 Alpha 1.93 Std Dev 616 41 Std Dev 750.33 Beta PhSn b6 Thtt qian PhSn b6 1512.7 Sld.Dev 565.13 4.25 Til T12 Loqnormai Loqnomial Th6i qian Location 447.98 10T1 Gamma 20T1 30T1 Gamma Gamma Location 242.52 Location •144.49 Location 124.91 Location 124.91 Location 124.91 Mean 1098 23 Mean 678.83 Scale 38.58 Scale 38.58 Scale 38.58 Std Dev 191.08 Shape 9.62 Shape 9.62 Shape 9.62 Std, Dev, 407.15 10T2-20T2-30T2 10T3-20T3-30T3 Maximum Extreme T4 Gamma Likeliest 370.04 Location Scale 75.91 T5 Loqnomial Gamma Location 104.18 Location Scale 186.09 47.64 Mean 392.66 Scale 197.33 Shape 3.42 Std Dev 129.68 Shape 288 173.75 KHOA HOC Kf THOAT THOY Hn VA MOl TRlrtNG • S6 42 (9/2013) 3.2 Xay dwng mo hinh mo phdng van hdnb ho chira Tuyen Quang, Thdc Bd vd bgc thang ho chira Sent La - Hoa Binh Mo hinh md pbong van banh ho chiia va bac thang iMIlffllBHIHM B cm gjggH^ll^^gw^rBt J t r n t IM HUU t|B« ^ ^ " ^ ho chiia pbat di?n cd tinh d6n nhu cau dimg nudc du dugc thiet lap dudi dang cac bang tinh cd lien ket vdi Excel nhu minh hpa hinh dirdi day cho bac thang hd chiia Son La va Hoa Binh: '"^'"" Đ:-ã-: ^ãã^^ ô > MO rm^i MO PI I6NG - TOI UU B.-^C THANGH d a „„ MtrcniAcdioKbt s tI(K UTAC pbiiut U I Uvc nidcxi bins Dim Muc nu6c cbct A^ T«,^« iOO 175 Qd IUA SON LA - H A BlNH I^^BgHg ^^^S 115 W4 w Wlb F* Wbh mtJm I i,bK aide dinjt bt Mlic nnic pb6iu| M MVCDuAcxl lilnaaiiu K^cc BIDC chit WD Wtoc Z:l„c Qui™ 117 101 • • : 30 QiiB Qn Wd w lCfT6 5339 "- GOI 95312 1D169 8939 8953 3720 3977 10129 106331 1D5S9 100S2 9923 5077 10T8 2018 30TS lOTS SOTS 3019 ,"\ >*»ts/(jo2KJ?j; jali'hih» /waj taSS.'^rvQ^y"- "1< " " • iV Hinh 2: Minh hga mo hinh van hdnh bdc thang ho chua phdt dien cd xel den nhu cdu sir dung nuac hg du dugc ihiet lap du&i dang cdc bdng linh co lien kel v&i Excel Mo hinh dugc thiet lap gom bang tinh co lien ket vai nhau: -"Bdng Q din ho" dugc sii dgng de xay dung phan b6 dong chay den cho tirng buac thai gian chay mo hinh (10 ngay), bang dugc lien ket vai "Bang cb^y mo phong" de cap phat chuoi dong chay den ho timg giai dogn mQt each ngau nhien theo mo phong Monte Carlo -"Bdng Quan h? hd" bao g6in cac quan he Z-WF va Q-Z luu sau dugc ngi suy vai buac thay d6i Z khoang 10cm dugc lien ket vai "Bang chay mo phong" de mo hinh tir dgng tra ngugc/xuoi cac gia trj tr^ng thai ho chiia - "Bdng mo phdng" dugc thiet l^p nbu mgt bang tinh dieu tiet h6 Vdi b^c thang ho chira "Bang mo ph6ng" bao g6m bang tinh di6u tiet: mgt bang cho ho Hoa Binh va mgt bang cho ho San La Hai bang tinb toan dieu tiet co lien quan d^n nhau: Qxa tir ho San La cpng vol Qkhu giira se la Qvao cua ho H6a Binh, myc nuac denh ciia ho Hoa Binh den luu ciia ho San La cung dugc xem xet tinh toan bang cac !$nh rang bugc -"Bdng kel qud" dua c^c ket qua tinh toan tir mo hinh toi uu Crystal Ball -"Bangphdn lich bdo cdo" la cac bao cao dirge trich phan tich dp tin cay, dir bao ham muc tieu kem theo eac bieu bang va ve hinh minh hpa w "Bang mo phong" dugc thiet lap cho tirng ho chiia dua vao nhirng co sa cae tieu chf ve miic dam bao phat dien (quy dinh theo tieu chuan TCXDVN 285:2002), cac rang bugc ve dung tich ciia ho chiia, nha may dien, ham muc tieu ve phat di?n, rang bugc cap nu0C cho luu giai doan tir 10/1 den 28/2 hang nam (chi liel xin iham khdo TLTKso 3) 3.3 Xdy dung mo hinb toi tru Crystal Ball vd ket noi v&i mo hinh mo phdng Nhom nghien ciru da sir dung modun toi uu OptQuest phan m^m Crystal Ball de xay di/ng mo binh toi uu sau k6t noi voi mo hinh mo phong dong chay ngau nhien den ho va mo hinh mo phong h6 chiia phat di?n va cSp nuac da xay dyng a cac buac truac de hinh mo hinh v^n hanh toi uu ho chira Thac Ba, Tuyen Quang va bac thang ho chiia San La - Hoa Binb a Ket not v&i cdc biin ngdu nhiin irong mo hinh KHOA HQC K? THUAT THUY LQl VA MCI TRlrtWC - S6 42 {9/2013) mo phong: De ket noi vai mo binh mo phong dong chay ngau nbien d6n bo, can tien hanh dinh nghia cac bien nglu nhien va dua vao cac ham phan bo xac suit da tim dugc cho tung giai dogn nam nhu da trinh bay amyc 3.1 b Xdc dinh cdc biin quyit dinh Cic bien quyet djnh (biln dieu khiSn) mo hinh van hanh b6 chira pbat dien co tinb den cap nuac hg du chinh la Iuu lugng qua tudc bin cua tumg buac thai gian LSn lupt dua vao pham vi bien doi (can tren va can duai) cua bien quyet djnh (minh hga hinh 3) Thong thucmg su dyng bieu dieu phoi hien tai ciia ho de xac dinh va dua vao mo hinh n h ^ tiet ki^m thai gian chgy mo binh Khi tinh den nhu cau cap nu6c du tbi can dua vao c^c rang bupc cap nuac cho khoang thai gian cap nuac khan truong tir 10 thang den 28 thang hang nam q MBMI Hinh 3: Minh hoa hdng xdc dinh bien quyel dinh, bien du bdo Modun Opquest c Xdc dinh cdc biin dg bdo vd cdc ihdng so chgy dien binb quan nam cua cac ho Cac thong so chgy mo phong mo phong dugc thiet lap nhu sau: mo phong 1000 Bien dir bao hay ham muc tieu van hanh ho lan, phucmg phap tao chuoi dong chay ngau nhien chiia va bac thang bo chira phat dien co xet den cap den ho la Monte Carlo vai dp dai chuoi tuang umg nuac cho du chinh la cue dai boa tong san lugng 500 nam so lieu !iffminffi^^B^^^B^ Trial! 5aiiipfcrig ^ p f ^ j Oftmn Slatatici FlaKtom nunber genoatoi \2 Li« '.ame sequwce of snifcm r w i e r i InUI iced value N - [ iorcbig melhacf i H o " l ^ Carlo |n«,er*ido m] C LatnHjip&cii* [maee «,] iaroplesce- ai^ \\ 500 £«al J IJdaAi j II a* j Hinh • Minh hga bang xdc dmh bdng Ihong so chgy mo phong toi ini Modun Opquest 3.4 Xdc dinh che dp van hdnh toi iru phdi di^n tien hanh chay mo hinb de xac djnh che dp vgn cdc ho Tuyen Quang, Thdc Bd vd bgc thang hd hanh toi uu pbat di?n co xet den nbu cau cap nuac ehda San La, Hoa Binh cd xet den cap nw&c bg du hg du cho cac h6 va bac thang ho chiia noi tren giai dogn tir 10/1 den 28/2 hdng nam Kinh nghi?m riit dugc tir cac k6t qua nghien ciiu Vai mo hinh ket hgp mo phong va toi uu van van hanh toi iru bo chira da myc tieu va h? thong ho hanh ho chiia da xay dymg, nhom nghien ciiu da chira va ngoai nuac truac day cbo thay rat KHOA HOC Kt THUAT THOY LQI VA MOI TRUfiWC - S6 42 (9/2013) nhieu bai toan thiet Igp xong va di tim Iai giai Igi khong tim dugc nghidm vi c6 qua nhi6u bien quyet djnh, dai chay mo phong ciia cac biln qua 16n, cac may tinb thong thuang khong the chgy noi vi tran bg nho Cbinb vi vay vai h§ thong h6 chira tren song H6ng, nhom nghien ciiu da ti§n banh chay mo phong t6i mi theo tiing giai dogn: i) giai dogn chgy mo phong toi uu cho timg ho chiia dgc Igp phat dien de tim dai giai han cac bien quyit djnh theo cac miic dam bao khac nhau; ii) giai dogn chay mo phong toi uu cho tirng b6 chira dgc lap phat di?n c6 xet tai cip nuac hg du giai dogn tir 10/1 den 28/2 hang nam Trong giai doan tien hanh khoa dan dan cac biln quyit dinh cho hiu hit cac thang miia lu dl tiln hanh tim va ban chi dan dan khoang gidi ban cua bien quyit djnh cac thang lai, dac bi?t giai doan can cip nude hg du; iii) giai dogn cu6i ciing, tiln hanh kit noi h? thong bac thang ho chiia va ham mue tieu luc la tong san lugng dien binb quan nam cua cdc bo nghien ciiu, cac bien quyet dinh chinb la luu Iugng xa qua tuoc bin tirng budc thai gian (10 ngay) nam cua cac ho chiia, nhung khoang bien doi ciia cac bien da dugc thu h^p tir cac giai dogn trudc Bang each tien hanh nay, bai toan da tim dugc nghi?m Ho chua Thdc Bd SAn hJ^ng dWn TB nam Ho chua Tuyen Quang StaUdngdUnTBnta Bdc ihang ho chira San La, Hoa Binh Hinh Bieu mo td tong sdn lugng dien ndm ciia ho Thdc Bd, Tuyen Quang vd bgc thang ho chira Scm La, Hoa Binh v&i muc ddm bdo khdc phdn tich dp tin cdy Ciystal Ball Che dg van hanh toi uu phat di?n iing vdi cac mirc dam bao khac cac ho chira Tuyen Quang, Thac Ba va bac thang h6 chiia San La, Hoa Binh co xet den cap nudc d luu dugc minh hga tom tit cac hinh 5, Vdi chi van hanh de xuit cho ho (Bang 2), nhdm tac gia da thir nghidm danh gia ket qua vgn hanh cho cac nam 2009, 2010, 2011 cho thiy vdi tong mirc xa cua ca ho la 2300 m3/s (bgc thang Son La, Hoa Binh: 2.000 m3/s, Tuyen quang: 200 m3/s, va Thac Ba: 100 m3/s) giai doan tir 10/1 den 28/2 da dap iing dugc nhu cau nudc cho du, tong san lugng di?n trung binh nhieu nam cua bgc thang hd chiia San La, Hoa Binh dat mirc 18.547 (lO^kWh) (Idn ban tong san lugng dien tinh toan thiet ke ciia EVN, san lugng dien eiia rieng ho Hoa Binh deu Idn ban san lugng dien san xuat cua cac nam ndi tren), san iugng di?n trung binh nam ciia hd Tuyen Quang la 1.297,7(10^kWh) Idn han san lugng di?n san xuat cae nam noi tren, san iugng di?n san xuat ciia ho Thac Ba la 330.3 (lO'kWh) Idn Hon san lugng dien thyc te san xuat cao nhat 30 nam khai thac (300 IO\Wh) Qua phan tich dp tin cay nhu minh hpa hinh 3, ta cd the thay la vdi 1000 lan mo phdng thi co khoang 7% ddi vdi hd Scm La va khoang 1% ddi vdi ho Hda Binh bj rai vao tinh trang thieu nudc, san lugng di?n bj giam neu cap dii nudc cho hg du giai doan tir 10/1 den 28/2 vdi mirc 2.000 m3/s Vdi mo hinh van hanh kit hgp md phdng va toi uu da thiet lap, ngudi quyet djnh cd the lya chgn cac mirc dam bao khac de quyet djnh che dp vgn hanh Cac gidi hgn dua Bang chi la gidi hgn tren va dudi ctia quy trinh vgn hanh, tiiy thugc vao dg tin cay dugc KHOA HOC Kt THUAT THUY LQI VA M O I TRUOWC • S6 42 (9/2013) phan tich tir md hinh ma ngudi quyet dinb se lira chgn dk cac quyet dinh phii bgp ddng tbdi cung cd tbi dir bao dugc san lugng di?n tuong ling nhu mOt vai minb hga hinh Ehwng v» tr"* " f « « « * • " « « • " « •'*'» l"** •**' "•"" •^ / ^-^ •.•*•// -^Z ^ ^' - ^ / z -^ •^