Q U A N L Y - SAN XUAT Q Can CO tam nhin chien litcfc DE KHAI THAC NANG LUONG GlO HIEU QUA TRUdC NGUY CO KHUNG HOANG NANG LUQNG Pham Phu Uynh Nang lUOng ti Viet Nam dang nong Hien nUde ta dang ddng trade nguy cd thieu hyt nang lUdng nghiem trpng Nhieu hdi t h i o , hdi nghi ve nang lUong cho thi'y: Cdn v i i t h i p nien nda, n i n g lUdng hda thaeh:Thanda, dau md, khiddtse bj can kiet, loai ngudi se lam vao tinh trang khiing hoIng nang luong tram Viet Nam khdng t h i t r i n h khdi nguy cd t h i l u hut nang lupng sip d i n gan Theo Hiep hdi Nang lapng, hien nhieu Nha m i y Nhiet dien Trung Qude xiy dyUg bi hU hong, chat luong kem, xiy dung cham tien dp, sin xuat dien bj i n h hudng Idn Cac Nhi miy Thiiy dien rat thilu nade, nguy co thieu dien, g i i dien se tang Neu t h i l u nang lUdng, cong, ndng, nga nghi&p, e h l bien, sin xuat, kinh doanh se bj dinh ddn, kinh t l , ddi sdng xa hdi se bj tut hau Tham chi, thieu dien thi chung ta khong the lam dupe gi Nang laong l i then chdt, quylt dinh sa tdn tai v i phat t r i l n eiia xa hoi Mudn phat t r i l n dat nude, nang luong phai di trude mdt bude, nen hudng dug eude each mang KHKT Dai hdi Dang lan thd ill p h i t ddng nam 1960, Viet Nam bat dau xay dyng nhilu n h i may nhiet dien, thuy dien ThUc t l hien ta rat thieu dien, nam nao eung nhap khau nUdc ngoii Du doan ta trd nude edng nghiep, nam 2020, edng suat sin xuat dien tang g^p lan so vdi nam 2006 (theo bdo cao ngdnh Diin tai Hoi nghj khoa hoc toan qu6c 2007, tr 116-117, ndm 2006 cdng sudt dien 12.352 MW sdn xuat 60,61^ kWh, nam 2010 cdng sudt 19.550 MW sdn xud't Nang luong nhiet dien, than d i : 112.658 ty kWh, ndm 2015 cdng sudt Dau t u 1.000 USD/kW, nhUng phii 32.116 MW sdn xudt 190.700 ty kWh, mua than sd iUdng Idn, Hien ndm 2020 cdng sudt 48.462 MW, sdn ta khai thic dupe 22 trieu tan than/ xudt 294,012 ty kWh) mie dCi liie nam, xuat khIu nhilu tri#u tan, Tuy da xiy xong cic nha miy dien hat nhien nam 2020, trd thinh nudc nhan 4,000 MW nhung ta van thieu cdng nghiep, ta phii nhap 40 trieu hut nang luong 4.000 MW, phii nhap tan than/nim eho hing loat n h i m i y eiia Lio 2.000 MW, Campuchia 1.000 nhiet dien ddi, khdng biet mua d MW, Trung Qude 1.000 MW diu? Chung ta da cd doan di khIp t h i gidi: Brazin, Achentina, An Od, Khdng nSn thda man hien tai, Trung Qude.,., nhang chi Indonexia tho'd vdi mai hda ban cho ta 3,5 trieu tan than/ nam, Sd than edn lai giii quyet the Chung ta dang ddng trUde bde nao ? Md than d Ddng bang Sdng xue Idn vi tinh hinh nang lupng eiia Hdng trd luong 200 ty tan, NhUng d Viet Nam dang bj de dpa thilu hyt sau 4000 m, nhiet dp d dd 150"C, nghiem trong: Thuc te lu lut vUa qua khdng cd edng nghe hien dai l i m bde Id nhilu bat cap ve thuy dien the nao khai thac dUpc ? Gia Nang lupng thiiy dien ta da khai thae khai thic se l i bao nhieu chUa biet tdi da Hon 2000 tram thiiy dien Idn, ? Chua tinh toan dUde sa sup lun nhd ehilm Idng hd rdng Idn nhieu v i hau q u i ve sau ? Ngoai d n tinh chuc van ha, p h i hiiy rdng, cay coi, t o i n den cic nha may nhiet dien g i y gay d nhiem moi trUdng sinh t h i i d nhiem mdl trUdng sinh t h i i , gay chaa tinh dUde hit, dae biet khdng hieu dng n h i kinh, ciy cdi bam day ngan dupe lu lyt hiiy hoai nha cda, bui b i m , mUa axit, eon ngudi khdng ruong vudn, hoa m i u , ciy cdi,,., tdn ton tai gan duac, vl cd nguy co ciia that hing ngan ty ddng/nam, nen nhilu benh Mat khie hay bi sU ed xi vai tram thiiy dien dang xay dang dd than, sup Id khd giii quyet dang phai dinh ehl Dd la dieu rat bde xuc nhung Uu diem ciia thiiy dien la khong phii mua nhien lieu, dau tU 2.000 USD/kW, n l u tinh dien tich ve Idng hd, di dan ed the hon 3.000 USD/kW Cd d i l u nghjeh ly khdng khIe phye dapc la d i n mua khd han rat d n dien, thi lai t h i l u nude, t h i l u dien, cd -tuc mUa lu, ngap lut d mien Trung, thi cic tram Thiiy dien Trj An, Dau Tieng d mien Nam, nha may Thiiy d l l n Hda Binh, Thac Ba d mien Bae khdng dii nUdc de hoat ddng v i ngUdc lai, lam t i n g nguy ca thieu dien cho cac nha miy, xi nghiep, sinh hoat xa hdi Nhu t h i eii loi v i eai hai lau d i i can dUOc tinh t o i n eu t h i VI dau md: Dau tU dien 4.000 USD/kW, phii mua nhien lieu d I t USD/thung Cd n i m chung ta khai thac duoc 19-22 trieu tan dau thd Tadng ring chiing ta nhanh chdng dat 30-40 trieu tan/nim, nhung (ehuaid s^ lieu eu the), du doan ta chl-i(h3i thae 16 trieu tan/nam, vi md Bach Hd va v i i md khae d i b i t dau can kiqf.Theo mdt sd tinh t o i n ve trd luong 2,7 fy thung ta chi khai thac duac 20 rfam v l dau md, Khi ddt dau t u dien 4.000 USD/kW TrUde day ta khai thic 11 ty mV nam Nay ta chua cd sd lieu cy t h i v l trd lUdng, sin luong, nhUng chic v i i t h i p Dien & D&i song\ 15 E Q U A N L Y - SAN XUAT nien tdi se bi ean kiet Indonexia la nude xuat khau dau md, trd t h i n h nUde nhap khau, nen rut khdi td chdc OPEC, vi dau md can ki^t, Nang luong h^t nhin: D i u t u 4.000 USD/kW Bit loi l i ehung ta p h i i diing ngoai t$ n h i p khIu t o i n bd 100% v l t h i l t bi, ky t h u i t , nhidn lieu uranium, thue chuydn gia, d nade ehaa e h l tao duoc nhien lieu hat n h i n , mua nhi^n l i l u r I t dIt, khdng chu ddng dupe, lai th^m d l gay sU cd, d nhiem mdi trUdng sinh t h i i , m i t an t o i n td khiu khai thic, c h i b i l n den c i t d i u chSt t h i i hat nhin, n^n n h i n d i n nhieu nude p h l n ddi, (d Ddc chon d t c h i t t h i i hat n h i n siu km r i t tdn k i m , d Phip va Dde n h i n d i n cung b i l u tinh p h i n ddi viec ehuydn chd eic chit t h i i hat n h i n tren l i n h thd, nhan dan Canada eung p h i n ddi d t d i u 56 tan chat t h i i hat nhan, n h i n dan O i l Loan phan ddi bude n h i d m quyIn huy xay dUng n h i m i y dien hat n h i n 4,000 MW) Nang luong dja nhiet, nude bien, sinh hpe, sinh khdi ta chda ed t h i khai thae, p h i t dien duoc Nha nade chua cd phuong hadng tham dd trd luong, tiem nang, chua thd nghiem, t h i l t ke, d u trii trang thiet bi, cdng nghe khai thic, dja d i l m , haeh t o i n kinh te Nude ngoai da dau ta khai thac nhilu, nhUng ta khdng b i t chudc duac Chung ta cung khdng the keu gpi nudc ngoii dau tu cic ITnh vac Nang laong mat trdi: Dau tU dien rat d I t 7.000 -10.000 USD/kW Ta p h i i n h i p 100% d e t l b i o quang dien, eae phy tiing t h i l t bj, ti'ch trd nang iuong, bp doi dien inverter rat phdc tgp, ta khdng tU c h i tao dUpc Nude ta cd Ipi t h i vi n g i y n i n g n h i l u , n h l t l i d m i l n Nam, m i l n Trung Miia H I , miia Thu n g i y n i n g n h i l u hon ngiy mUa Sd gid n i n g thadng c h i l m 1/3 eiia ngiy Cic ndde Ble Au n i n g rat it ngudl ta v i n sddung Nhang khd k h i n l i n i n g lUpng n i y q u i d I t khdng hpp vdi tui t i l n ciia n h i n d i n ta (d nudc ngoii lUdng eao d i n 10.000 USD/thing, n l u nhin i n tiSu mdt t h i n g da l i p d i t dUdc tram n i n g lupng m i t trdi kW, n^n nhilu gia dinh sd hCfu mdt tram dien m i t trdi l i binh thadng, nhung d ta mudn cd sd tien nhu viy, nhdng ngudi luong t h i p t i l t kidm nhilu n i m cung khdng dat dupe) Qua sd lilu thdng ke tr^n, ehang td ehung ta chua b i o d i m an ninh nang lUdng, cd nguy eo t h i l u hut nang lapng tram N l u cdduy tri sin xuat dien nhu hien nay, chung ta khdng t h i dat muc t i l u edng nghiep hda, hien dai hda dat nude, n i m 2020 nude ta khdng the trd t h i n h nudc edng nghiep daoc Khi t h i l u dien thi edng, ndng, ngU nghiep, ehe bien, khai t i c se bj tut h i u , ddt sdng vat chat va tinh than sut kem se gay b i t dn djnh ddi sdng, x i hdi Bdi viy, tU biy gid ta phii ed bade dot p h i d i u t u khai t h i c nang lupng gid t i l m tang vd t i n , ben vdng tuong lai cho d i n ty nam nda mat trdi ngudi lanh.Theo d u d o i n t i l m ning ed t h i d i n 10 trieu ty kW Nlu khai t h i c 10% nang laong eung dii diing cho t o i n thd gidi Khai thae ning lupng gid, nang lupng mat trdi l i bude di tat y l u cua loai ngudi thay the ngudn nang lupng hoa thach sap can kiet Hidn gid l i ngudn nang lupng p h i t t r i l n nhanh n h I t trIn t h i gldl, mdc dd tang tradng dat 29% t h i p k^ qua, Ide than chi t i n g 2,5%, n i n g luong hat nhan t i n g 1,8%, tU nhien t i n g 2,5% va d i u t i n g 1,7%/nim Hiln nhilu nudc no lUe khai t h i c n i n g lUdng gid, di dau l i Ddc, My, Tiy Ban Nha, Trung Qude Co quan ndng luong Dde d l muc tieu d i n n i m 2015 sin luong dien td cae n i n g lUdng t i i tao chilm 20% tdng sin lupng di&n qude gia, dd 35.000 MW di&n dUpc sin xult td gid Khu vue Ddng Nam A cd nhilu d i o Idn nhd n i m d phia Tiy Thii Binh duong, phia Ddng An Dd duong ehju I n h hudng eiia hai tin gid mua rlt manh l i gid Ddng Ble v i Tiy Nam, Philipin ed 7.107 hdn dio, phia Tay Indonexia cd 17.000 hdn dio, Viet Nam hon 3000 hdn d i o deu cd gid manh thadng xuyen Theo khio sat ciia ngan hing the gidi T h e World Bank Asia Alternatie Energy Program"da eho dilu tra b i n dd gid vdi sd thac hien eua AWS True Wind- mdt td ehde nghien eOu co 20 nam kinh nghiem linh vUc ning lupng tai tao, dae v i md hinh hda quyIn, dd cd ndde Viet Nam, Lao, Campuchia, Trung Quoc va Tiy ble Thai Lan cho thay ve dien tich, 28.000 km' cua Viet Nam cd gid rat tdt Trong dd Campuchia 345 km', Lio 6676 km^Thai Lan la 761 km' Lfu t h i eiia Viet Nam ti cd bd bien dai tren 3.000 km, nhilu h i i dio, nui cao td 400 d i n 1500 m d Ddng v i Tay day TrUdng Son cd tdc dp gid ta den m/s l i thadng xuyen, cd luc 15-17 m/s, dac biet la d mien Trung v i Tay Nguyen den chua duoc khai thac QUAN LY - SAN XUAT Q Td nam 1960 d i n nhieu cO quan, Xi nghiep, tradng hpc Cue, Vy, Vien, quan dpi, ca nhan khdng ehuyen da ehe tao hing van roto gid thi nghiem loai nhd theo mau nUdc ngoai de phit dien, lam mudi, bom nUdc tudi eay, nhung khd thinh edng, ehUa cd roto nao dat edng suat v i i kW, tdn tai dUde vai nam, thadng giy canh, giy dudi lai, tdn kdm rlt nhilu t i l n Nhieu ndi e h l tao nhilu lan roto gid cong suat nhd, cdng nghe thap, nhung khdng tim dupe nguyen nhin bat thinh, trd be tic, g i y chin nan khoa hpe, Bdi vay khai thic nang lupng gid d ta dang d sd 0, vi ta chua dat dUdc kien thdc sing ehl mdi, kem edng nghe cao, ehe tao md mam, nhin thdc theo d m tinh, i o tudng v l edng suat ning luong gid Cd ngudi hang chye nam nghien cOu e h l tao hang ngin roto gid, dUpc mdi ngdi tren g h i hdi ddng di xet chon da an, m i nhan thde edn au tri, den noi eho rang: "Cdng suat roto gid ty le thudn vdi binh phuang dt/dng kinh bdnh gio" mac d i u ty le vdi binh phaong ban kinh banh gid da thoi phdng eong suit len hang chye lln rdi Chung ta hoan nghenh mdt sd nha dau tu nhap khau cic turbin gid roto trye ngang ed Idn, cong nghe eao ciia nude ngoai, l i p dat d Binh Thuin, Ninh Thuan va se md rdng d Tay Nguyen, Cdn Dao, Phil Qude, md mdt giai doan mdi phat triln nang lapng gid d Viet Nam Mong rang se t l l p tuc nhan rdng e a c v i i n g k h i c T u y nhien cdng suit duac edng bd khdng dii tin ciy N l u turbin gid cd cdng suit dich ihuc ehi 100 kW la sde manh to Idn khdng t h i cd sde manh nao cin difac [way p h i t dien Diesel 75 ma lUe = 55 kW da cd sde manh phi thUdng), Nlu turbin gid cdng suit 1500 kW nd ehay tung trdi, the m i cd nhilu turbin gid khdng quay dupe dat nghi van ? Dang tlec d ta ehUa du khl nang de ehl tao eic turbin gid ed Idn cdng nghe cao, ehUa tan dung dUdc t i l m nang tri tue, ndi lac nadc, nen phii nhap 100% t h l l t bi, miy mdc, vat lieu, cong nghe l i p dat cua nude ngoai, bj le thude, khdng chii ddng dUdc ky thuit edng nghe nang lupng gid NhUng Turbin gid tren la tieu bieu hien nay, dat edng suat dang ke, da sin xuat hing van turbin, gdp p h l n kinh t l x i hdi d nhieu nudc tren the gidi Tuy nhi^n ngUdi ta chua tim g i i i phap mdi hon de khIc phye nhiJfng y l u kem ciia no ve hieu suit, eie einh ehl ddn gid mdt hadng, tdc dp cham, ling phi ning lupng, einh nang hing tan tidu hao nang lupng, khdi ddng khd, g i y t l i n g dn Idn, gia dIt, tinh toan bj thdi phdng edng suat de quing cio, (thUe te thudng ehi dat 1/10 hay 1/15 cdng suit tinh t o i n quing eao) Qua nhieu nam nghien edu sang ehl, tdi da tim giii phip mdi ve Design thilt bj khai thic nang lUpng gid theo nguyen ly ein cinh budm hieu suit cao, ddn gid mpi hudng, nen gid ehllu nio roto eung quay khong can banh lii ehinh hudng, dac biet l i ed t h i tang luu luong gid, ting edng suit len nhieu lan nhd he thdng phu, cd t h i dn dinh dieu toe, de ehe tao, lip dit, gia ha, da thif nghiem dDa Nang (1978) edng suat 15 kW, d HTXTU Hiep, Thanh Tri, Ha Ndi (19811983) cdng suat kW de bdm nUde t h i i nudi c i (cdng bd tren bao Nhan Din 6/5/1983, Ha Ndi Mdi 10/4/1983), da dang ky ban quyen tie g i i sd 435/2001/QTG 5/12/2001, dat giii Nhi v l Sang kien sddung nang lupng gid bao ve mdi trUdng nhan mdi trddng t h i gidi 5/6/2006, da du nhieu Techmart H i Ndi, Can Thd, Tilt kiem nang lUdng qude te, cd nhilu bIng khen, giay chdng nhan, Td nam 1980 t i e gia da cd nhieu de xuat khai t h i c nang lUong gid gdi lanh dao Ding, Nha nUdc va dau nam 1990 da gap true t l l p Bd trUdng Ke hoaeh - Dau tU de nghj dUa ning lapng gid v i o ehuong trinh qude gia de dam phin sir dung ky thuat cua CHLB Ode va kinh phi cua EU theo gpi y eua dng Wolfgang Skor, giam ddcTrung tamThdy ddng hpe eiia Ddc, nhung deu khdng cd hleu q u i , vi nang lupng gid bj danh gia thap Gan diy, nang lUdng hda thach: Than d i , dau md, ddt sip bj can kiet, trade nguy ed khdng hoing nang lupng dang den g i n , nhieu nude thi dua khai thac nang lupng gid, ta mdi b i t dau thay gia trj cua ning luong nen d i md nhieu Hdi nghj, Hoi t h i o ve ning laong t i l tao m i quan trpng nhat l i nang lupng gid, nhdng eung chi la nhdng b i i tham luin ehung ehung cdng bd chinh sich, keu goi nudc ngoii dau tu, khdng cd tham luan d u i n sang e h l cy the ve nang lUpng gid, nen bj d i m chan tai ehd, Ve phia cac co quan quin ly n i m kinh te va quyen lUc ehi trdng chd cie Cue, Vy, Vien KH, eac tradng dai hpe, eie GS, TS hoc vj cao, nhung vi ho bj le thudc sich vd, thieu thyc te d l p h i t minh sing ehe, nen c i eude ddi ehUa dUa dupe p h i t kiln mdi v l nang luong gid Mat khie ehi trdng dpi nUdc ngoai, "But chua nha khdng thieng", da l i p Hdi ddng cd hpe vi eao, chuyen siu ly thuyet, nhdng t h i l u thue t l , de ehpn da an nang lUOng gid, nhdng dU i n dUOc duyet lai mua t h i l t bi nude ngoai ve lap dat, tdn kem hing ty ddng, khdng t h i sin xuat hang loat dUpc, thdi phdng cdng suit, g i y tdn kem Idn v l ngan saeh? Qua mdt sd v i n de neu tren, trade nguy eo khiing hoing ning lupng sip den gan, de bao dam an ninh nang lUpng trade m i t va lau d i i eho cdng nghiep hda, hien dai hda, ndde ta d n cd tam nhin chien laoc tat yeu, c i n cd bude dot p h i khai thac ning lUdng gid sach, ben vQng cho tUdng lai Viet Nam Mudn dat muc tieu dd, nha nUdc phii dau tu kinh phi, ky thuat thich ding, t u minh l i m ehu ky thuat, khdng te thude nUde ngoai, tap trung khai thae nang lupng gid theo nguyen ly can eanh budm ndi tren, lue dau ehe tao loai nhd v i i kW, tiep d i n vai chuc, v i i tram kW theo k h l nang san cd d nude de phye vy ddng bao vting cd gid manh quanh nam nhu bd biln, hai d i o nui cao, vung sau, vung xa, bd dpi h i i quan, bien phdng, ngudan, nong d i n , danh b i t ca tdm, sue nudi tdm, thap sang, ehay dien dai, ehay miy, ndi mang dap dng nhu d u ngiy cing tang len theo sU van ddng khdng ngdng ciia cudcsdng, Dien & D&i song\ \J ... khdi ta chda ed t h i khai thae, p h i t dien duoc Nha nade chua cd phuong hadng tham dd trd luong, tiem nang, chua thd nghiem, t h i l t ke, d u trii trang thiet bi, cdng nghe khai thic, dja d i... nghiep, ehe bien, khai t i c se bj tut h i u , ddt sdng vat chat va tinh than sut kem se gay b i t dn djnh ddi sdng, x i hdi Bdi viy, tU biy gid ta phii ed bade dot p h i d i u t u khai t h i c nang... lanh.Theo d u d o i n t i l m ning ed t h i d i n 10 trieu ty kW Nlu khai t h i c 10% nang laong eung dii diing cho t o i n thd gidi Khai thae ning lupng gid, nang lupng mat trdi l i bude di tat y