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Tap chi KHOA HOC DHSP TPHCM Trinh Phi Hoanh VN NGHIEN CUtJ CAC LOAI TAI BIEN MOI TRlTOfNG TlT NHIEN 6 TINH DONG THAP VA GIAI PHAP PHONG TRANH, GIAM NH? THIET HA] TRINH PHI H O A N H '''' TOM TAT Dong Thd[.]
Tap chi KHOA HOC DHSP TPHCM Trinh Phi Hoanh VN NGHIEN CUtJ CAC LOAI TAI BIEN MOI TRlTOfNG TlT NHIEN TINH DONG THAP VA GIAI PHAP PHONG TRANH, GIAM NH? THIET HA] TRINH PHI H O A N H ' TOM TAT Dong Thdp ndm a viing Ddng bdng sdng Cuu Long (DBSCL) khdng cd nhiiu thien tai nhu khu vuc mien Trung nhung nhung tai biin mdi trudng tie nhien diin tren lanh thd nhu lu lut xdi Id ba sdng giong Idc, han hdn vd xam nhap man da dang gdy nhieu thiet hgi ve sinh mang, tdi sdn cua ngudi ddn Tren ca saphdn tich nguyen nhdn ddc diem cdc tai bien tir nhien bdi bdo de xudt nhung gidi phdp phdng trdnh, gidm nhe thiet hgi Cdc gidi phdp duac de xudt theo hudng tiep can tai biin vd hudng dip can cdng ddng ddn cu Tir khda: tai bien moi trucmg tu nhien, tinh D6ng Thdp ABSTRACT A study of natural en vironmental hazards in Dong Thap province and solutions to prevent and mitigate the damage Dong Thap is located in the Mekong Delta, which does not often suffer from natural disasters like the Central region of Viet Nam; however, this land has to face many natura environmental hazards such as: flood, riverbank erosion, thunderstorm, cyclone, drough salinity intrusion and so on, causing many damages to people's lives and property Base on the analysis of the causes and features of natural environmental hazards, this article proposes some solutions that can mitigate or prevent damages The suggested solutions are hazard-based and community-based Keywords: natural environmental hazard, Dong Thap province Dat van de D6ng Thap nam a khu vuc ddng b5ng chau tho song Ciiu Long thuoc luu song Me Kong, vai dja hinh tucmg doi bSng phang, hau nhiet dai gio miia mang tinh can xich dao, mang luai song rach day dac Trong do, song Ti§n phan chia khong gian lanh tho tinh hai bo phan, phan phia BSc thupc vung DSng Thap Muai thap trGng, phan phia Nam nam kep giua song Tien va song Hau duac boi dap phii sa hang nam Tren nen tang tu nhien do, D6ng Thap c6 nhi^u dieu kien thuan lai cho phat trien kinh t£ - xa hoi (KT-XH), nhat la tai nguyen nuac va dat Tuy nhien, ben canh nhung thuan lgi ma tu nhien mang lai cho D6ng Thap thi tinh cung phai d6i mat vai nhi§u kho " NCS, Tru&ng Bai hgc Dong Th^p 185 Tu' lieu tham khao sS 61 nam 2014 khan, thach thirc tit tu nhien ma tai bien mdi trudng (TBMT) tu nhien dang la nhan td tao nhiiu bat lgi, gay nhieu thiet hai ve tinh mang va tai san cua nhan dan (theo thing ke ciia Ban chi huy Phdng chdng lut bap & tim kiem ciru nam tir ndm 2000 2013, tadn tinh cd 504 ngudi chit, thiet hai ve tdi sdn lin den 2734 ti ddng TBMT) Dac biet, bdi canh bien ddi hau toan cau va nude bien dang nhu hien nay, viing DBSCL dugc du bao sg chju anh hudng nang ne nhat d nude ta, nen cac loai hinh TBMT nhu 10 lut, xdi Id bd sdng, han ban, gidng loc d tinh Ddng Thap ndi rieng va DBSCL ndi chung se diln manh me va phiic tap hon Vi thi, nghien cim cac loai hinh TBMT tu nhien dl cd phuong an ting phd, thich nghi, chu ddng phdng tranh dang la van dl dat cap thiet tai tinh Ddng Thap, nhat la bdi canh biin ddi hau vdi nhung bieu hien cua nd dang diln biin phirc tap No! dung 2.1 Quan niem ve TBMT vd TBMT t{r nhien Theo Nguyen Can, Nguyen Dinh Hoe [2] thi: "TBMT la bieu hien ve dieu kien, hoan canh, hien tugng, vu viec hoac qua trinh, dugc xuat hien, dien bien frong thien nhien, xa hdi, cd tiem nang gay hai, gay nguy hiem, de dga ddi vdi an toan siic khde, tinh mang ngudi, tai san kinh te, tai san van hda - xa hdi cua mgt bg phan cdng ddng loai ngudi hoac cd nguy co de dga, tham chi pha vd tinh dn djnh, an toan mdt bd phan, cho den toan cue mang tinh chat he thdng mdi trudng tu nhien, mdi trudng van hda - xa hdi va mdi trudng nhan sinh" [2, tr 13] Quan niem ngin ggn hon vl TBMT thi TBMT la nhimg qua frinh gay hai van hanh he thdng mdifraidng,dd la dac tinh vdn cd, phan anh tinh chit nhiiu loan, tinh bit dn djnh cda bat ki he thdng mdi trudng nao Qua trinh TBMT gdm giai d o ^ : (i) giai doan nguy ca (hiim hpa) da tdn tai nhimg yiu id gay hai nhung chua gay mit dn djnh cho he thdng; (ii) giai doan phdt trien: tap trung va gia tang cac yiu to tai biin, xuit hien trang thai mat dn djnh nhimg chua vugt qua nguong an toan cua he thdng mdi trudng; (iii) giai doan sir cd mdi trudng: trang thai mit dn djnh da vugt qua mirc an toan cua h? thdng, gay cac thiet hai khdng mong dgi cho ngudi ggi la thien tai hgac su- ci mdi trirdng (gdy thiet hai rdt ldn ve sinh mang, tdi sdn, phd vd cdn bdng moi trucmg sinh thdi ) Cd nhieu each phan loai TBMT, frong each phan loai dua vao tac nhan gay tai biin dugc nhiiu tac gia sOr dung Dira vao tde nhdn gdy tai biin, ta chia TBMT loai: TBMT tu nhien, TBMT nhan sinh va TBMT van hda - xa hdi TBMT tu nhien la nhimg qua trinh (hien tugng) tu nhien cd nhihig tac ddng tieu cue, gay tac hai den ngudi, cac ddifrigngKT-XH va mdi frudng [16 fr 17] Trong thuc tl, cac loai TBMT xay vd ciing da dang, cd nhiing loai tai biin khdng chi mgt loai tac nhan (vi du: chay rimg cd thi xuat phat tir tu nhien hoac xa Tap chi KHOA HOC OHSP TPHCM Trjnh Phi Hoanh hdi lii lut ngoai nguyen nhan tu nhien cdn cac boat ddng KT-XH khdng hgp li cua ngudi nhu pha rimg dau ngudn, thu hep ddng chay ) Vi thi, nghiin ciru cdc loai TBMT tir nhiin d tinh Bdng Thdp, chimg tdi xem xet tai biin cd nguyen nhdn chu dao Id tir tir nhiin Tren lanh thd Viet Nam cd 10 loai TBMT tu nhien nguy hilm la bao, han han, lu lut, trugt Id dit, lu quet - lu biin da, xdi Id bd sdng, xdi Id - bdi tu bd biin, nirt dit va dgng dit [16] Tuy nhien, d tinh Dong Thap cd cac loai TBMT tu nhien anh hudng ldn den mdi trudng, va phat triln KT-XH ciia tinh la lu lut, xdi Id bd sdng, gidng, idc, han han va xam nhap man 2.2 Cdc loai TBMT tir nhien d tinh BSng Thdp 22.1 Lit hit (flood) •I' Quan niem Lit lut bao gdm hai hien tugng lii (flood) dien trudc, muc cac sdng dang cao Khi muc nude sdng dang cao vugt bd, chay trim, ngap tren dien rgng mdt khoang thdi gian nhat dinh tao nen ngap lut (inandation) Lu lut diln d Ddng Thap (cimg vdi cac tinh viing Ddng Thap Mudi, Tu giac Long Xuyen) thugc loai sdm, phirc tap nhit d DBSCL *t* Dac diim Miia lu xuat hien d Ddng Thap tir thang 8-11, muc nude dinh lu cao nhat thudng xuat hien vao khoang 15/9 - 15/10 Tning binh cir khoang - nam cd mdt nam lu ldn (lii cd muc nude dinh IQ cao hon trung binh nhieu nam), lii ljch sii (lu cd muc nude dinh lu cao nhat thdi ki quan trac) Tir nam 1911 den nay, d DBSCL cd 33 fran lu Idn, lu ljch sir nhiing nam lu Idn gin day la 1961, 1966, 1978, 1984, 1991, 1994, 1996,2000,2001,2011 Dac diem chung cda lu lut d Ddng Thap la: (i) Lit hiin vd on dinh: luu lugng nude miia lu la rat ldn nhung dugc dieu tilt bdi nhiing viing triing tren dat Campuchia, dac biet la Bien Hd nen din Ddng Thap khoi lugng va luu lugng 10 diu giam cdn khoang 20.000 - 25.000 mVs (bang I), muc nude lu len cham, cudng suat lii trung binh 6cm/ngay, ldn nhat khdng qua 30cm/ngay, hi tran nen tde khdng qua ldn 0,5 - 0,8m/s (ii) Thdi gian xudt hiin dinh lii vd thdi gian tri muc nude lu keo ddi: tri muc nude cao tren 3,0m (mirc bao dgng cip I) tai Tan Chau va ndi ddng tinh Ddng Thap keo dai khoang 2, thang (hinh 1) Tuy nhien, nhiing nam dau thi ki XXI, Id lut diln biin kha phiic tap (ve thdi gian, miic ) 187 Tu' lieu tham khao SS 61 nam 2014 khan, thach thuc titfri.nhien ma tai biin mdi trudng (TBMT) tu nhien dang la nhan td tao nhiiu bit lgi, gay nhieu thiet hai ve tinh mang va tai san cua nhan dan (theo thing ke cita Ban chi huy Phdng chdng lut baa & tim kiim ciru nam tir ndm 2000 2013, todn tinh co 504 ngirdi chit, thiet hai ve tdi sdn lin den 2734 ti ddng TBMT) Dac biet, bdi canh biin ddi hau toan ciu va nude bien dang nhu hien nay, viing DBSCL dugc du bao se chiu anh hudng nang nl nhit d nude ta, nen cac loai hinh TBMT nhu lu lut, xdi Id bd sdng, han ban, gidng Idc d tinh Ddng Thap ndi rieng va DBSCL ndi chung se diln manh me va phuc tap ban Vi thi, nghien ciiu cac loai hinh TBMT tu nhien dl cd phuong an ling phd, thich nghi, chil ddng phdng tranh dang la van de dat cip thiet tai tinh Ddng Thap, nhat la bdi canh biin ddi hau vdi nhiing bieu hien cua nd dang dien bien phiic tap Noi dung 2.L Quan niem vi TBMTvd TBMTtif nhien Theo Nguyin Cin, Nguyin Dinh Hde [2] thi: "TBMT la bieu Men ve dieu kien, hoan canh, hien tugng, vu viec hoac qua frinh, dugc xuat Men, dien bien frong thien nhien, frong xa hdi, cd tiem nang gay hai, gay nguy hiem, de dga ddi vdi an toan siic khde, tinh mang ngudi, tai san kinh te, tai san van hda - xa hgi cua mdt bd phan cdng ddng loai ngudi hoac cd nguy co de dga, tham chi pha vd tinh dn dinh, an toan mdt bd phan, cho den toan cue mang tinh chat he thdng mdi trudng tu nhien, mdi trudng van hda - xa hdi va mdi trudng nhan sinh" [2, tr 13] Quan niem ngin ggn hon ve TBMT thi TBMT la nhung qua frinh gay hai van hanh he thdng mdi trudng, dd la dac tinh vdn cd, phan anh tinh chat nhieu loan, tinh bat dn djnh cua biit ki he thdng mdi trudng nao Qua trinh TBMT gdm giai doan: (i) giai doan nguy CO (hiem hpa) da tdn tai nhtrng yeu td gay hai nhung chua gay mat dn djnh cho he thdng; (ii) giai dpan phdt triin: tap trung va gia tang cac yeu td tai bien, xuat hien trang thai mat dn djnh nhung chua vugt qua ngudng an toan ciia he thdng mdi trudng; (iii) giai doan sir cd mdi trirdng: frang thai mat dn djnh da vugt qua mirc an tgan cua he thdng, gay cac thiet hai khdng mong dgi cho ngudi ggi la thien tai hoac sir co mdi trirdng (gdy thiet hai rdt l&n ve sinh mang, tdi sdn, phd vd cdn bdng mdi trirdng sinh thdi ) Cd nhieu each phan loai TBMT, frong dd each phan loai dua vao tac nhan gay tai bien dugc nhiiu tac gia sit dung Dira vao tac nhdn gdy tai biin, ta chia TBMT loai: TBMT ht nhien, TBMT nhan sinh va TBMT van hda - xa hdi TBMT tu nMen la nhung qua trinh (hien tugng) ta nhien cd nhOng tac ddng tieu cue, gay tac hai den ngudi, cac ddi tugng KT-XH va mdi frudng [ 16 fr 17] Trong thuc tl, cac loai TBMT xay vd ciing da dang, cd nhiing loai tai biin khdng chi mgt loai tac nhan (vi du: chay rimg cd the xuat phat tit tii nhien hoac xa 186 Tap chi KHOA HOC OHSP TPHCM Trinh Phi Hoanh hdi lu lut ngoai nguyen nhan tu nhien cdn cac boat ddng KT-XH khdng hgp li cua ngudi nhu pha rimg dau ngudn, thu hep ddng chay ) Vi the, nghiin ciru cdc loai TBMT tir nhiin a tinh Dong Thdp, chimg tdi xem xet tai biin cd nguyen nhdn chii dao Id tir tir nhiin Tren lanh thd Viet Nam cd 10 loai TBMT tu nhien nguy hilm la bao, han han, lii lut, trugt Id dat, lu quet - ID biin da, xdi Id bd sdng, xdi Id - bdi tu bd biin, mit dit va ddng dat [16] Tuy nhien, d tinh Ddng Thap cd cac loai TBMT tu nhien anh hudng ldn din mdi trudng, va phat triln KT-XH cua tinh la lu lut, xdi Id bd sdng, gidng, Idc, ban ban va xam nhap man 2.2 Cdc hgi TBMT tu nhien o tinh DSng Thdp 2.2.1 Lit lilt (flopd) •I* Quan niem Lii lut bao gdm hai hien tugng lii (fload) diln trudc, muc cac sdng dang cao Khi muc nude sdng dang cao vugt bd, chay tran, ngap tren dien rdng mdt khoang thdi gian nhit dinh tao nen ngap lut (inandatian) Lii lut diln d Ddng Thap (ciing vdi cac tinh viing Ddng Thap Mudi, Tir giac Long Xuyen) thugc loai sdm, phirc tap nhit d DBSCL '*' Dac diem Miia lii xuat hien d Ddng Thap tii thang - 1 , muc nude dinh lu cao nhat thudng xuat hien vao khoang 15/9 - 15/10 Trung binh cir khoang - nam cd mdt nam lu ldn (lu cd muc nude dinh lii cao ban trung binh nhieu nam), IQ ljch sir (lu cd muc nude dinh lii cao nhat thdi ki quan trac) Tir nam 1911 den nay, d DBSCL cd 33 tran lu Idn, lu lich sir nhiing nam lii Idn gin day la 1961, 1966, 1978, 1984, 1991, 1994, 1996,2000,2001,2011 Dac diem chung cua lii lut d Ddng Thap la: (i) Lit hiin vd dn dinh: luu lugng nude miia lii la rat Idn nhung dugc dieu tilt bdi nhiing vimg triing tren dat Campuchia, dac biet la Bien Hd nen din Ddng Thap khdi lugng va luu lugng lu diu giam cdn khoang 20.000 - 25.000 m^/s (bang I), muc nude lu len cham, cudng suat lO trung binh 6cin/ngay, Idn nhat khdng qua 30ctn/ngay, lu tran nen tde khdng qua Idn 0,5 - 0,8m/s (ii) Thdi gian xudt hien dinh lii vd thdi gian tri mirc mrdc lU keo ddi: tri muc nude cao tren 3,0m (mirc bag dgng cip I) tai Tan Chau va ndi ddng tinh Ddng Thap keo dai khoang 2, thang (hinh 1) Tuy nhien, nhirng nam dau thi ki XXI, lu lut diln bien kha phiic tap (vl thdi gian, miic ) 187 Tu' lieu tham khao SS 61 nam 2014 Bdng Lini luang lu ldn nhdt vd mirc mrdc cao nhdt trin sdng Tiin tai trgm Tdn Chau Nam 1961 Luu lugng ldn nhat (mVs) Muc nude cao nhat (m) 1978 1984 1991 1996 2000 2001 2011 25.900 22.400 24.300 23.600 25.500 23.800 5.12* 4.94 4.96 4.80 4.99 5,06 478 4,86 Ngudn: [6], [11], [12], *Binh lit cao nhdt tir 1961 - 20!I • Bao dong cap (z=3,0ni) • Bao dong cap II (z=3.6m) D Bao (teng cap III (z=4.2m) 1978 1984 1991 1994 2000 2003 •""" Hmh Bieu thai gian tri muc nude ting vdi cdc cdp bdo dpng ba thdng miia 10 (8, 9, 10) tai tram Tdn Chau tren song Tiin mot s6 nam la lan Mdi dgt lu - lut thudng gdm giai doan (i) Giai doan diu: nude d thugng ngudn sdng Me Kdng dd vl, muc nude sdng Tiin, sdng Hau dang cao; (ii) giai doan giira: (lu fran, ngSp lut) bit diu muc nude d Tan Chau len cao, luc nude la vin chay vao kenh chinh nhung bat dau cd mdt lugng nude fran qua bd sdng Tien dd vao Ddng Thap; ddng thoi nude d thugng ngudn dd vl tang them khoi lugng nude vao Ddng Thap tiieo sdng Tien va dugc tang cudng bdi lugng nude tran qua bien gidi Campuchia, giai doan keo dai kha lau cho din xuit hien dinh lu (thudng cd mdt dinh lu chinh va mdt dinh lu phu); (iii) giai doan cudi (lu nit) Khu vuc ngap lu ciia Ddng Thap chia lam 02 viing: viing ngap sau phia Bic kenh Nguyen Van Tiip A (sau nhit cac huyen Tan Hdng, Hdng Ngu tren ra), vung ngap ndng (0,8 - 1,5m) phia Nam kenh Nguyin Van Tiep A, viing nam giOa sdng Tiin va sdng Hau Xet ve nguyen nhan ngap lut, Ddng Thap xip vao viing ngap lu va ngap mua ndi ddng; xet ve thdi gian ngap, Ddng Thap dugc xip vao loai viing ngap sau va rit lau va vimg ngap sau va ngap lau trung binh; xet vl tac ddng cua lu trilu thi Ddng Thap thugc khu vuc lu, lut nude d thugng ngudn va khu vuc IQ - trilu [6] ••• Nguyen nhdn Nguyen nhan gay lu lut d DBSCL ndi chung va tinh Ddng Thap ndi rieng la 188 Tap chi KHOA HOC OHSP TPHCM Trjnh Phi Hoanh mua bao, ap thap nhiet ddi, dai hdi tu nhiet ddi' ket hgp vdi gid miia Tay Nam! Cac hinh the thdi tiet thudng boat ddng manh tit cudi thang din thang 9, gSy mua ldn d Tay Trudng Son (thugc Trung va Ha Lao; Campuchia; Tay Nguyen, Vi$t Nam) Cdn nguyen nhan ngap lut theo Td Van Trudng, ed ba nguyen nhan chinh gay ngap lu d viing DBSCL la (i) dien tich luu virc sdng Me Kdng nhd (khoang 5% tdng dien tich toan luu vyc), luu lugng nude thugng ngudn dd vl ldn nen kha nang tieu thoat nude cham; (ii) Anh hudng cua thuy trilu, nhit chi ban nhat trilu; (ill) mua ndi ddng triing vdi miia Id [12] Nguyen nhan mdt sd tran lu lut ldn dugc xac dinh nhu sau: Tran lu Ijch su thang 9-10/1961 la bSo dd bd vao Viet Nam, Idn nhit la bao sd va sd 10 gay mua ldn d nude ta, Lao va tam mua la Draivy - Campuchia vdi lugng mua thang la 737mm Tran lu Idn vao thang 9/1978 can bao lien tiip dd bd vao miin Trung gay mua ldn d Trung va Ha Lao, Ddng Bic Thai Lan vao cac thang 7, 8, Lugng mua thang d Thakhek (Lao) la 667mm, thang d Pakse (Campuchia) la 900mm Lu Ion nSm 1996 bao va ap thip nhiet ddi gay nen Tran lu Ijch su nam 2000 cd nhimg diim rit khac thudng: tran lu dang hai dinh lu Idn, la dang IQ it gap d DBSCL (1978, 1984), dinh lu each 51 ngay; IQ ve sdm nhat ljch sii va cac dinh IQ rat cao; dien bien IQ rat phirc tap Nguyen nhan true tiip cua fran lu lut dugc xac dinh la bao sd va sd gay mua tren dien rdng nhung nguyen nhan sau xa la tac ddng cua bien ddi ban toan ciu, cua hien tugng La Nina manh keg dai (tit nam 1999 - 2000) Ngoai ra, cdn tang cudng them bdi nhimg boat ddng cda ngudi nhu thay ddi Idn co sd ting d chau thd sdng Me Kdng ndi chung va d DBSCL ndi rieng LQ nam 2011 lien tuc cd nhiing can bao (4, 5) va hoat ddng manh cua gid miia Tay Nam, sy xuat Men thudng xuyen cua cac dai hgi tu nhiet ddi Vl the, lugng mua d trung, luu vyc sdng Me Kdng (tir Chieng Saen - Thai Lan den Strung Treng) rat ldn, vugt qua lugng mua trung binh nhiiu nam va Idn hon cung thdi ki (nam 2010) rat nhieu lan - hinh 2, 3, nen myc nude tren ddng chinh sdng Me Kdng tai Kratie (22,8m 22/9), Kongpong Cham (16,02 m, 25/9) (Campuchia) vugt qua myc nude lu lich sii nam 2000, tit 25/9 tai Tan Chau myc nude vugt mirc canh bao IQ (cip III)^ hinh va tri din giOa thang 10/2011 CJ Ddng Thap, lu lut cdn dugc tang cudng bdi lugng mua tai chd va lugng nude chay tran qua bien gidi tir Campuchia Ddng Thap nam d khu vuc thap trQng eua Dong Thap Mudi (do cag trung binh I - 5m, dd cao 1,0 - 1,5m chiem din 75,84%i dien tich tu nhien cua tinh), anh hudng ddng trieu cua Biin Ddng va vinh Thai Lan (lu ljch su nam 2000, myc trilu cao den 4,05 - 4,16m) Ddng thdi, mdt sd doan sdng bi lin chiem xay dung nha cita, nudi trdng thuy san, bd bao ngan lu chua theo quy hoach da ban chi kha nang tieu, thoat cua nude lu 189 SS 61 ndm 2014 Tu' lieu tham khao Hinh Bieu dS lirang mua tich liiy tai Luang Prabang, Lao [12] Hinh Bieu lupng mua tich luy tai Strung Treng, Campuchia [12] rainl.l1 (.Tan Chai ^ _i ; _ _i_ "W5.J —^\,-i=^»i3" ,^-^^"11^^^^ ^ , m> _^^^^^^^^e=^^^ Hinh Biiu dd luang mua tich By tat Tdn Chau (An Giang) [12] •t* Hinh Miic mrdc Ki virm miic canh bdo lU (cdp bdo dpng 111 = 4,5m) tai Tdn Chau 25/9 Ghi chu; Arm (arm level - miic bdo dpng la) Flood (flood level - mice cdnh bdo m)[12] Thiit hai Lu lut xay d Ddng Thap ben canh nhtrng mat lgi (bdi dip phu sa, khai thac thuy san, thau chua rira phen, lam giam chu ki boat dgng cua sau benh, cung cap nude ) cQng gay khdng it thiet hai cho dia phuang LQ sdm gay anh hudng din san xuat vu He Thu, lu chinh vu anh hudng den lua Thu Ddng (vu 3), vudn cay an trai, co sd tang, tang cudng xdi Id bd sdng, anh hudng ddi sdng va tinh mang ngudi dan LQ nam 2011, theo thdng ke ciia Ban chi huy Phdng chdng lut bao va Tim kiem cuu nan tinh Ddng Thap thi lu lut da gay thiet hai: 23 ngudi chit, 7000km dudng bj nude fran qua gay sat Id, hu mat dudng, 24 cau cdng bi pha hiiy, 2000 liia Thu Ddng (vu 3) bi mat tring thiet hai kinh tl tren 300 ti ddng 2.2.2 Xdi Id bdsdng (riverbank erosion) *> Quan niem Xdi Id bd sdng la dang biin hinh cua sdng bun cat Idng, bd sdng bj xdi trdi, lam khdi dit bd mat can bing va bj trugt Id Xdi Id bd sdng xay phd biin, manh me va phirc tap nhat la tren he thdng sdng Tiin doan chay qua lanh thd tinh Ddng Thap 190 Tap chi KHOA HOC DHSP TPHCM *•• Trjnh Phi Hoanh Thuc trang xdi Id bd sdng Qua dieu tra, khao sat ket hgp vdi eac ket qua nghien cim cua cac tac gia [1], [4], [5], [7] thi tinh den nam 2013, cd den 113 diem xdi Id Idn nhd xay d sdng Tiin tinh Ddng Thap Trong dd, nhiiu khu vuc xdi id cd tde dd xdi Id ldn (> lOm/nam), gay hoac cd nguy co gay nhiiu thiet hai nhu bd sdng Tiin thugc huyen Hdng Ngu, sdng Tien doan thj xa Hdng Ngu, sdng Tiin thugc huyen Thanh Binh va doan sdng Tiin thugc phd Sa Dec (bang 2) Ngoai cac khu vyc xdi Id trgng diim tren, xdi Id bd sdng cdn xay phd biin d hau het cac huyen cd sdng Tiin chay qua nhu cac xa diu cu lao Long Khanh (Long Thuan, Long Khanh A huyen Hdng Ngu), cac xa Tan Qudi, Tan Binh, An Phong, Tan Thanh (Thanh Binh), An Long (Tam Ndng), xa Tan Thuan Ddng, Tan Thuan Tay (TP Cao Lanh), My Xuong (huyen Cao Lanh) vdi nhiiu mire khac Bdng Tinh hinh xdi la bd sdng Tiin tinh Ddng Thdp giai doan 2009 -2013 Nam 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Sd diem bi xdi Id 96 92 95 95 113 Sd xa, phutmg, thi tran bj xdi Id 34 35 39 36 32 Sd xa, phuong, thi tran cd kha nSng xdi Id 43 43 47 46 42 Chieu dai bj anh hudng (km) 74,0 23,0 95,0 56,4 38,74 Dien tich dat bi xdi Id (ha) 36,60 21,97 49,0 26,58 10,27 Ngudn: Sa Nong nghiep va Phat trien nong thon tinh Dong Thap Xoi 16 ba song tinh Dong Thap chu yeu xay mua mua lu, nhat la nhung nam lu lon Tuy nhien nhung nam gan day, xoi la xay nhieu hon vao mua kiet (thuang xay nai tranh chap giGa dong chay thugng ngu6n va tridu nhu a ba song Ti^n huyen Chau Thanh, doan Sa Dec) Nhin chung, xoi la ba song a tinh Dong Thap dang cang gia tang ca ve quy mo lan miic xoi 16 va dien bien phiic tap (loai hinh xoi 16, thai gian xoi la ) • Nguyen nhdn Nguyen nhan cua xoi la bcr song a tinh D6ng Thap noi chung va doan song Tien noi rieng la su,tac dpng tong hop cua nhieu nhan to (tu nhien, KT-XH) thong qua moi quan he giiia long dan tu nhien (thay doi hie&ng lien tuc, co nhieu vuc sau vd hdi ndng xen ke, su ton tai cua nhieu cu lao, bai boi giua song ), vat chat cau tao ba song, long song mim yeu, de chay nhao {chii yen Id set a phia tren vd cdt a phia du&i v&i luc ket dinh 0,lkg/cm^, cdc tap cdt bixoi nhanh han set ) va dpng luc dong chay lon, gap - lin van toe cho phep khong xoi cua khoi dat ba song, dupe tang cuang ca hai mua (miia mua lii chu yeu ia dong chay thuong nguon co lini lupng dong chay Icm va tri thai gian dai (hinh 1), mua kho chu yiu la dong trieu Bien Dong, vinh Thai Lan va sii dung 191 Tu' lieu tham khao SS 61 ndm 2014 nude sdng qua muc) deu tao dieu kien cho xdi Id bd sdng xay Cac boat ddng KT-XH bat hgp li tren luu vuc va tai dia phirong nhu pha rimg diu ngudn; xay dung cac cdng trinh thiiy dien; khai thac cat san Idng sdng qua mirc; chay tau thuyen tai trgng ldn vdi tde cao; xay dung cac cdng trinh lan chiem long sdng, bd sdng gdp phan tSng cudng gay xdi Id bd (tang lye gay trugt Id, lam giam luc chdng xdi cua bd sdng) [5] •:• Thiet hai Tai biin xdi Id bd sdng da, dang gay nhieu thiet hai ve tinh mang, tai san cua ngudi dan d tinh Ddng Thap Xdi Id bd xay mdt thdi gian dai d sdng Tien do^n thugc phd Sa Dec cung da gay nhieu thiet hai: lam sup dd xudng sdng lang, hai ciu dai 30m va 100m; hang chue cay sd dudng d td; mgt benh vien da khoa cua tinh; mdt trudng trung hgc cua phd; try sd mdt sd co quan cua tinh; lam sat Id khu phd chg Sa Dec Dgt xdi Id bd nam 1995 d Sa Dec gay thiet hai din 36,5 ti ddng, lam mat 51ha rudng dat Xdi Id bd sdng dien manh d Sa Dec la mdt nhQng li quan trgng ma tinh Ddng Thap di ddi tinh Ij len Cao Lanh va nha nude da phai dau tu ldn cho mdt he thdng bao ve bd sdng Giai doan 1991 - 2001, d Sa Dec xdi Id bd sdng da cudn di 254.800m^ dat, 679 hd phai di ddi, thiet hai m^nh nhat la Phudng 3, 4, xa Tan Quy Tay [7] Cac dgt xdi Id gan day (nam 2011), diln rang sang 16/8/2011, tai to 19, ip (xa Thudng Phudc I, huyen Hdng Ngu) da xay vu xdi Id nghiem trgng keo dai tren 100m, sau 20m, lam sup dd can nha xudng sdng Tien va de dga 40 hd dan sdng khu vyc sat Id xa An Hiep (Chau Thanh) 26-27/9/201,1 da xay xdi Id dai 200m, Ian sau khoang 40m, dien tich dit mit khoang 12.000 m^, 70 hd dan phai di ddi Xa Tan Binh (Thanh Binh), xdi Id keo dai 2,5km, tren 120 hd dan phai di ddi Ngay 2/3/2013 d xa Phu Thuan B xay sat Id; chilu dai sat Id 200m, sau vao bd 7,0m, dien tich sat Id 1400m^ va 24 nha dan phai thao dd di ddi Vy sat Id diln diu thang 6/2014 thugc dia ban Phudng 11, phd Cao Lanh keo dai tren 100m, an sau vao bd den 25m, de dga din sy an toan cua kho chiia xang diu (each 20m) nen Ddng Thap da quylt dinh ban bd tinh trang khin cip sat Id dit bd sdng Tiin thugc Phudng 11 2.2.3 Cdc loai TBMT tir nhiin khac •> Giong (thunderstorm), Ldc (cyclone) Gidng la Men tugng thdi tilt kit hgp mua Idn, gid manh va su phdng dien quyen (sim set) cd ngudn goc nhiet lye, ddng lye hoac dia hinh-" va cd thi xay khdi khdng cd lugng am cao hay vung nhiiu ddng quyin [10] Gidng xay d DBSCL vdi tin suit Idn, keo dai sudt nam va thang nhiiu nhit la thang (tdi 20 - 24 ngdy giong, phdn ldn Id ddng nhiit, bang / Mdi nam d Ddng Thap, gidng xuat hien d vung trung tam Ddng Thap Mudi (ben canh lugng mua Idn, mua gidng cung cd lugng dam - mudi N ldn han binh thudng, tot cho ndng 192 T9P chi KHOA HQC DHSP TPHCM Trinh Phi Hoanh nghiep) thucmg lam hu hai nha cira, cay trdng eua ngudi dan, nhat la frong gidng cd set nen mdi nam thudng cd - vu gay chet ngudi [ ], [14] Ngoai cd gid manh mua ldn (ddng) cdn gay tac hai nghiem trgng thdng qua gid xoay giai manh Khi xay ldc thudng gay thiet hai rit Idn \ l hoa mau, nha cira Nam 2013, toan tinh Ddng Thap 307 nha sap, 1334 ngdi nha xieu ddng ldc Bdng Sd ngdy gidng d Nam Bp img vdi tdn sudt dam bda trin 50% Thdng I 10 n 12 Nam Sd ngdy cd gidng 1 10 20 19 17 15 15 14 10 120 Ngudn: Pham Ng(3c Toan, Phan Tat Dac [10] Han hdn vd xdm nhap man (drought and salinity intrusion) Han han la hien tuang luang mua thieu hut nghiem trpng keo dai, lam giam ham lucmg am khong va ham lupng nuoc dat, lam suy kiet dong chay song su6i, thip muc nuac ao ho, muc nuoc cac tang chiia nuoc duoi dit gay anh huang xau den su sinh truang cua cay trong, lam moi truang suy thoai Theo To chiic Khi tupng th6 gioi (WMO) han han duac phan lam loai: han tucmg (xay luong mua thieu hut, thai gian keo dai), han ndng nghiep (xay thieu hut nuac, dp am dat lam giam sut san lupng va nang suat ca\- trong), han thuy vdn (dong chay song suoi thap hon trung binh nhieu nam ro ret va muc nuoc cac tang chiia nuoc du6i dat thap) va han KT-XH Han han xuat hien a DBSCL va Dong Thap vao miia kho, kiet (tir thang - nam sau, lupng mua trung binh thang it - 40mm) Han han ket hpp voi thuy trieu, dia hinh thap nen man xam nhap sau vao DBSCL Truac day, a Dong Thap xam nhap man dien it (do nam each xa Bien Dong) nhung hien nay, miia kho keo dai, nuac biin dang, sii dung nuoc qua miic nen man xam nhap va anh huong toi Dong Thap thong qua song Tien va song Vam Co Tay (dp man %o co the xam nhap tai Hiep Hoa each BiSn Dong 149km) roi theo cac kenh, rach xam nhap sau vao Dong Thap [15] Nhin chung, han han va xam nhap man a Dong Thap khong nghiem trpng (nhit la tinh trang xam nhap man) nhung voi su bien dpng cua tu nhien, dac biet la bien doi hau dang lam cho lupng mua phan hoa them sau sic (nam 2010, lupng mua nam cua D6ng Thap lon 2387,8mm nhung thang 2, hau nhu khong co mua), muc nuac biin dang, cac dap thiiy dien duac xay dung thuang nguon, du an thiiy nong KhongChi-Mun (Thai Lan) se lam cho han han va xam nhap man xuat hien cang nhiiu a khu vuc DBSCL noi chung va tinh Dong Thap noi rieng 2.3 Gidi phdp phong trdnh, gidm nhe thiet hai TBMT tir nhien & Ddng Thdp 3.1- Quan diem tiep can de xudt gidi phdp 193 Tu- lieu tham khao SS 61 ndm 2014 Qua nghien ciru dac diem, nguyen nhan eac tai bien va thiet hai ma chung gay ra, nhan thiy: dl chu ddng phdng tranh, giam nhe thiet hai cac loai TBMT ndi chung va TBMT ty nhien ndi rieng tinh Ddng Thap can tiep can theo hai hudng Hudng tiip can nhim vao tai bien: giam muc nghiem trgng cua tai bien, giam tac nhan gay tai bien, giam thieu thiet hai Hudng tiip can nhim vao cdng ddng: tang site chdng chiu, giup cdng ddng thich iing vdi tai bien, chii dgng phdng tranh tai bien 2.3.2 Dinh hirdng gidi phdp phdng trdnh, gidm nhe thiit hai '*• Gidi phdp tiip can tai bien D I giam thieu nguyen nhan gay tai bien IQ lut, xdi Id bd sdng, gidng ldc, han han va xam nhap man la rit khd khan (bdi nguyen nhan chu yiu deu xuat phat tu tu nhien va mang tinh khu vyc, quoc te nhu pha rimg diu ngudn, cac cdng trinh thuy dien ) Ddng Thap, can ban che cac hoat dgng lam gia tSng cac tai bien nhu lan chiem Idng, bd sdng de xay dung nha cira, nudi trdng thuy san, khai thac cat san qua mirc, sir dung nude lang phi (nhat la mua khd) Trong quy hoach phat trien can tranh bd tri dan cu, cac ca sd kinh te d nhung khu vyc cd nguy co xdi Id cao, ngap lyt ldn; tang cudng trdng rimg, nhat la cac huyen Hdng Ngy, Tan Hdng *t* Gidi phdp tiep can cpng dong Giao due cho cdng ddng dan cu d Ddng Thap nhan thirc va cd nhQng hieu biet v^ nguyen nhan, dac diem, muc thiet hai cua eac tai bien thdng qua cac thdng tin dai chung, td roi, cac budi hgp dan cu de ngudi dan nang cao canh giac, chu ddng phdng tranh cac tai bien, nhat la nhimg cu dan sdng ven sdng rach ily ban Phdng chdng lut bao va tim kiim cim nan tinh Ddng Thap, Dai Phat va Truyin hinh tinh Ddng Thap phdi hgp chat che vdi Trung tam dy bao Khi tugng thuy van Trung uong va dia phuang de kjp thdi cap nhat thdng tin canh bao sdm lu lut, khu vyc cd nguy ca xdi Id bd sdng, gidng ldc dl chinh quyin va nhan dan chii ddng img phd Ddi vdi la lut Quan triet quan diim 'sdng chung vdi lu" Cd nghia la chu ddng diiu khiln lam IQ thay ddi vl phin va hudng phat triln, giam bdt tac hai, tan dung IQ Chung sdng vdi thien nhien, dya vao nhung hilu biit day du vl quy Iuat ty nhien, xay dung canh quan xa hdi khdng ddi lap vdi ty nhien ma van dung quy Iuat tu nhien lam nIn tang phat trien xa hdi ben viing Tinh Ddng Thap can chu trgng cdng tac tai thiit sau IQ (ra soat lai he thdng de bao ngan va thoat lu, cac cdng trinh thoat lu va ngan thuy trieu, nhat la sau dgt lu nam 2011) Chi de lai va kien cd hda nhung de bao cho cac khu vuc trgng yiu vl dan cu va 194 Tap chi KHOA HOC OHSP TPHCM Trjnh Phi Hoanh san xuat, nhung khu vyc khac de cho ddng lu thoat ty nhien Cae tuyin dudng giao thdng nhu qudc Id 30, tinh Id 848, cac tuyin giao thdng vung ngap IQ sau cin dugc kien cd hda, nang cao va trdng cay hai ben dudng han chi tac ddng gay xdi id cua nude mua IQ Tiep tuc nghien cixu va xay dung cac cum tuyin dan cu vugt lu dl ngudi dan In dinh chd d; uu tien xay dyng d cac dia phuang thudng xuyen chju ngap sau nhu Hdng Ngu, Tan Hdng Tuy nhien, qua trinh xay dyng phai tinh toan ki din cac nhu cau ca ban cua ngudi dan (dien, dudng, trudng, tram) cQng nhu quan tam tdi cugc sdng ngudi dan sau den chd d mdi Cum, tuyen dan cu vugt lu phai cao ban muc ngap lu nhung nam IQ ldn gin day (2000, 2001, 2011 ); xay dyng nha kien cd tranh IQ va giQ tre mua lu Bdng Co cdu mita vu lita (03 vu) d tinh Bong Thdp Vy Thoi gian gieo xa Thoi gian thu hoach Dong Xuan 05/9 - 20/11 15/02-01/3 He Thu 25/02 - 05/3 31/5-10/6 Thu Dong* 05/6-15/6 10/9-25/9 Ghi chii * Chi nen nhimg khu vuc CO bo bao kien co, neu khong chuyen sang hoa mau hoac cay cong nghiep ngan ngay, rau thuc pham Ngudn: [8] va bo sung Co phuang an tan dung \u (nhu nao vet kenh muang, dao kenh tich nuoc) de thau chua, rira phen man, ve sinh dong rupng Thay doi co cau miia vu, nhat la vu Thu Dong (vu 3) chi san xuat lua o nhtrng nai co de bao kien co, cac khu vuc khac cay ngan de tranh lu Hien nay, co cau miia vu liia duoc the Men bang 4, can luu y mua vu Thu Dong chu dpng gieo xa va thu hoach sam Boi vdi xdi la ba song De han che xoi la bo song, tinh Dong Thap co the ling dung cac bien phap gia co bo (ke be tong, tham thuc vat, tuomg chan), cac bien phap cong trinh mang tinh chii dpng nhu phao huang dong, kenh rach phan dong, mo han, dap khoa Xay dimg va hoan thien ba ke chong xoi tren song Tien a xa An Hiep (Chau Thanh), Phuong (Sa Dec), xa Tan Binh (Thanh Binh), xa Thuong Thoi Tiin (H6ng Ngu), xa My An Himg B (Lap V6) de han chi xoi Id xay ra, gay thiet hai lan Cac khu vuc xoi lo khac nhu cac xa dau Chinh Sach, cii lao Long Khanh (Long Khanh B, Long Thuan), dau cii lao Tay (Tan Quai, Tan Binh huyen Thanh Binh), cu lao Chai (xa Tan Thuan Dong), xa Tan Thuan Tay, Hoa An TP Cao Lanh, xa My An Hung A (Lip V6), xa My Xuong (huyen Cao Lanh) tang cuong trdng tham 195 Tu" lieu tham khao SS 61 ndm 2014 thuc vat (dira nude, dude, tha beo ) de han chi xdi Id va di ddi nhiing hd dan cu sdng khu vyc xuat hien cac vet nirt Ddi vdi gidng, ldc Xay dyng cac cdng trinh, nha d kien cd, thudng xuyen chang chdng nha cua de tang bin vimg cua cdng trinh nham de phdng ddng ldn, Idc xoay d cac ciia sdng, nai trdng trai (cac xa ven sdng Tiin huyen Hdng Ngu, xa Tan Thuan Ddng ), neu nha d Igp bing la tdn trang kem, tdn xi mang ngdi cd the dan len mai nha cac loai nep bing gd, sit, day kem cd ldn (chu y su dung cdt thu Idi chdng set ddi vdi cac cdng trinh cd cao Idn khu vyc trdng trai) hoac cac bao chira cat de ban che tde mai cd ldc xoay Chat tia canh, nhanh eua cac cay cao, de gay dd, muc rdng, nam gan nha d, ludi dien Khi frdi mua ldn kem theo ddng, ldc can sa tan ngudi gia va tre em khdi nhung can nha tam bg, den nhirng noi an tgan, vthig chae hon Khi xay Idc xoay mgi ngudi phai tim nhihig nai tru an an toan nhu cac nha kien cd, tranh tni dudi bdng cay, nha tam bg dl bi nga dd Tuyen truyen, van ddng den cac hd dan cd nha kien cd tiep nhan nhiing ngudi dan tru an xay Idc xoay, nhat la d cac huyen phia Bac tinh Ddng Thap Ddi vdi han hdn vd xdm nhap man Nghien cuu va du bao tinh hinh han ban theo timg nam, timg thdi ki de cd phuong an su dung nude mua khd, kiet Sir dung nude tiet kiem mua khd, nhat la san xuat ndng nghiep va sinh boat Han che lay nudc'nhieu nhihig luc trieu cudng trieu len Cd phuang an giu nude mua mua lu cac hd, kenh muang, trdng cay ven kenh rach, ddng rudng de tich trQ nude su dung frong mua khd, kiet Ket luSn Mac du, cac loai hinh TBMT ty nhien khdng dien manh me, phirc tap nhu khu vuc mien Trung nude ta nhung d Ddng Thap vdi cac loai tai biin nhu IQ lut, xdi Id bd sdng, gidng ldc, ban ban va xam nhap man cQng gay khdng it thiet hai vl ngudi va tai siin cua nhan dan, can trd den sy phat triln KT-XH bin vQng cua tinh Nguyen nhan cua cac tai bien la tac ddng tdng hgp cua nhan td tu nhien (chu yiu) va boat ddng KTXH chua hgp li tren luu vuc va tai dia phucmg gdp phan lam gia tang cac tai biin (vl miic do, thiet hai) De chil ddng phdng tranh va giam nhe thiet hai TBMT ty nhien xay d dia phuong, tinh Ddng Thap can thye thi cac giai phap da djnh hudng d fren Mdi giai phap cd nhung uu, nhuge diem rieng vi thi cin phdi hgp cac giai phap qua trinh thuc hien de dam bao hieu qua cao nhit Trudc mit, tinh nen uu tien xay dyng cac cum, tuyin dan cu vugt lu va xay dung bd ke, di ddi dan d nhihig khu vuc xay va cd nguy CO xay xdi Id bd sdng cao dl han chi thiet hai vl ngudi va tai san cua nhSn dan 196 Tap chi KHOA HOC DHSP TPHCM Trinh Phi Hoanh Hpi tu nhiet doi (hoi tu noi chi tuygn - CIT) la dang nhiiu dong dac trung cua gio mua mua No the hien sir hpi III dac trirng %\Qa tin phong B^c ban cau va gio mua miia (cQng chinh la tin phong Nam ban cau virpt qua Xich dao va doi hucmg gio mua Tay Nam) Khong hai ben khu virc hpi tu thirong nong am, lien tuc boc len cao va gay mua [4] [10] "Truoc day mirc canh bao lia DBSCL tren song Tien deu lay otram Tan Chau {An Giang) lam chuan Mirc bao dpng cap I: mirc nuac tai Tan Chau> m, IT mirc nuoc cao hon 3.6 m cap III: myc niroc > 4,2 m Hien nay, mirc canh bao lii cap 1, II, III tai Tan Chau ldn Iuat dupe sir dung la 3,5 m, 4,0 m va4,5 m [3], ' Giong nhiet (nhiet luc) - sir chenh lech nhiet dp sir nong len cua be m3t luc dia, dpng luc - sy chuyen dich cCia cac doi gio hanh tinh theo Mat Troi, giong dia hinh (do dia hinh, cac khoi khong am, nong boc len cao dpc theo siron mii \ 10 11 TAI LIEU THAM KHAO Ban Tuyen giao tinh Dong Thap (2014), Dia chi Ddng Thdp Nxb Tre, Nguyen Can, Nguyen Dinh Hoe (2007), Tai bien mdi truang Nxb Dai hpc Quoc gia Ha Noi, Ha Noi Dai Khi tugng Thuy van khu virc Nam Bp, Trung tam du bao Khi tupng Thuy van Quoc gia, "Cac tin bao lu Idian cap va thiet hai lii lut tren song Cim Long tir 20/9/2011 - 9/10/2011", http./fwww.kttv-nb.orgvn Trinh Phi Hoanh (2013), "Nghien cuu cac nhieu dong thai tiet gay mua - lu lut Dong bang song Ciru Long", Tgp chi Khoa hoc Dgi hoc Su pham TP Hd Chi Minh 43(77), tr.l07-116 Trinh Phi Hoanh (2014), '"Hien trang xoi 16 bo song Tien doan chay qua tinh Dong Thap giai doan 2009 - 2013"', Tgp chi Khoa hoc Dgi hoc Sir pham TP Hd Chi Minh 59(92),tr.n6-171 TrJin Nhu H6i (2014), "Mpt s6 tran lii dien hinh \a phan viing ngap lut a viing Dong bang song Cuu Long", TuySn tap Khoa hpc Cong nghe 50 nam xay dung & phat trien, http://www.vawr.org.vn/, 01/8/2014 Le Manh Hiing (2008), Xdi bdi he thdng sdng rach viing Ddng bdng sdng Cuu Long Nxb Nong Nghiep, TP H6 Chi Minh So Nong Nghiep va Phat triln nong thon tinh D6ng Thap, Vien Quy hoach Thiiy lpi mien Nam (2008), Bdo cdo chinh Quy hoach ndng nghiep vd phdi trien ndng thon tinh Ddng Thdp din ndm 2020 TP H6 Chi Minh So Tai nguyen va Moi truang tinh D6ng Thap - Trung tam KT thuat moi truang, Bp Tai nguyen va Moi Truang (2008), Bdo cdo tdng hop Quy hoach mdi truang tinh Ddng Thdp den ndm 202O Dong Thap, Pham Ngpc Toan, Phan Tit Dac (1993), Khi hau Viet Nam Nxb Khoa hpc va ki thuat, Ha Npi Trung tam Khoa hpc tu nhien va Cong nghe quoc gia (1995) Sir dung tdi nguyen mrdc vd han chi hdu qud lu lut viing Ddng Thdp Mudi Bao cao Hgi nghi khoa hpc, TP Ho Chi Minh 197 Tu- lieu tham khao SS 61 ndm 2014 12 Td Van Trudng (2005), Tap bdn dd ngdp lit theo cdc tdn sudt Bao cao chuyen de thugc dl tai Nghien cuu nhan dang toan dien ve Id, du bao, kiem soat va thoat IQ phuc vu yeu cSu chung sdng vdi lii d ddng bang sdng Cim Long, ma sd KC.08.14, Phan vien Khao sat Quy hoach Thuy lgi Nam Bd, TP Hd Chi Minh 13 Td Van Trudng (2011), "Danh gia so bd tinh hinh mua lu luu vyc sdng Me Kdng", to;7;//vncoZrf.v« 05/10/2011 14 Uy ban nhan dan tinh Ddng Thap (2010), Ki hoach qudn li nil ro thiin tai tdng hpp tinh Bdng Thdp din ndm 2020 (bdo cdo khung) Ddng Thap 15 Trin Thanh Xuan (2008), Ddc diim thiiy vdn vd ngudn mrdc song Vift Nam, Nxb Ndng nghiep, TP Hd Chi Minh 16 Nguyin Trpng Yem va nnk (2006), Nghien ciru xdy dimg bdn phdn vimg tai biin mdi trirdng tir nhiin lanh thd Viet Nam, Ma sd: KC.08.01, Be tai ddc lap cap nha nude, Vien Dia chit - Vien Khoa hoc va Cdng nghe Viet Nam, Ha Ndi (Ngiy Toa soan nhan 6ogc bii; 04-8-2014; ngiy phan bien dinh gii 12-8-2014; ngiy ctiip nhan ding 20-8-2014) CAC S TAP CHi KHOA HOC SAP T a i : Thang 9/2014: So 62(96) - Khoa hoc giao duo Thang 10/2014: So 63(97) - Khoa hoc xa hdi va nhan van Thang 11/2014' So 64(98) - Khoa hoc tu nhien va cong nghe San bien tap Tap chi Khoa hgc rat mong nhan duoc sty trao dot thong tin cua cac dan vi b^n va dime ban cJpc thuung xuyen cpng tac bai va, gop y xay dpng ... vao tai bien: giam muc nghiem trgng cua tai bien, giam tac nhan gay tai bien, giam thieu thiet hai Hudng tiip can nhim vao cdng ddng: tang site chdng chiu, giup cdng ddng thich iing vdi tai. .. tai bien, chii dgng phdng tranh tai bien 2.3.2 Dinh hirdng gidi phdp phdng trdnh, gidm nhe thiit hai ''*• Gidi phdp tiip can tai bien D I giam thieu nguyen nhan gay tai bien IQ lut, xdi Id bd sdng,... tinh Nguyen nhan cua cac tai bien la tac ddng tdng hgp cua nhan td tu nhien (chu yiu) va boat ddng KTXH chua hgp li tren luu vuc va tai dia phucmg gdp phan lam gia tang cac tai biin (vl miic do,