KHOA HOC PHirONG PHAP DANH GIA TAC DONG CUA BIEN D 6 I KHI HAU DEN HE THONG CO S6 HA TANG NONG NGHIEP VA NONG THON TINH THITA THIEN HUE TS Le Xuan Quang Vien Nude, Tuai tieu va Moi trudng Tom tilt Thi[.]
KHOA HOC PHirONG PHAP DANH GIA TAC DONG CUA BIEN D I KHI HAU DEN HE THONG CO S HA TANG NONG NGHIEP VA NONG THON TINH THITA THIEN HUE TS Le Xuan Quang Vien Nude, Tuai tieu va Moi trudng Tom tilt: Thira Thien Hui Id tinh thuoc vimg Bdc Trung Bp vd ndm vung phat trien kinh ti trpng diSm miSn Trung Hang ndm, ca sd hg tdng nong nghiep vd nong thon ciia tinh Thira Thien Hui bi thiet hgi len din hdng tram ty ddng su tan phd ciia thien tai vd tdc dong ciia bien doi hdu Xdy dung phuang phap ddnh gid tdc dong ciia bien doi hdu (BDKH) den he thong ca sd tdng nong nghiep vd Nong thon vdi BDKH cho linh Thira Thien Hue la mpt cac noi dung cua nhiem vu danh gid tdc dong ciia BDKH den he thong ca sd hg tdng nong nghiep va Nong thon- thuoc chuang trinh muc tieu quoc gia irng vdi BDKH ci/a Bo nong nghiep va Phdt trien Nong thon Ket qua nghien ciru dua lai canh bdo, cdc kien nghi giiip cho cac nha hooch dinh chinh sach ciia Bp, nganh vd dia phuang co cdi nhin khdch quan ve tdc dpng BDKH den linh vuc ca sa hg tdng vd chi dao thuc hien cdc chinh sdch dau tu hieu qua han Tir khoa: Tac dpng ciia BDKH, co sd tang ndng nghiep va ndng thdn, Thira Thien - Hue Summai^: Thua Thien Hue province is located in the North Central part of Vietnam and is on the key economic development zone of the Central region Annually, natural disasters have servere damages to agriculture and rural infrastructure of Thua Thien Hue caused the loss of hundred of billion Vietnam dong Developing the methodology to assess impacts of climate change lo agricuUiire and rural infrastructure for Thua Thien Hue is one of the task of National Target Program responding to climate change - MARD action plan The research results give warning of climate change impacts to policy makers at the both central and provincial levels which provide evidence on climate change impacts to agriculture and rural infrastructure in order to formulate more effective investment policy Kcywors: Impact of climate change, infastructure, agriculture and rural I MO" D A U Thanh phd Hue vira chiu anh hudng cua gio Thira Thien - Hul la tinh nim d cue Nam viing T ^ ^ ^ " ^ Bac vira bi gid mua Tay Nam chi Bic Trung Bd Phia Tay Bic giap vdi tinh Quang Tri, phia Tay Nam giap vdi Lao, phia Nam giap vdi Da Nlng, la cku ndi giira BSc Nam, giira biln va true kinh t l Ddng Tay va da timg la trung tam kinh t l chinh tri cua dit nude thdi nha Nguyin P^""" ^'^ ""^^^ ^ ^ '^ " " ' > " ^ P^'^" ^^i" ^? ^""^ "^ ^'^"^ ^ ' ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ g ^"^^ ^^*^ ^ ° ' ' ^ ^ S ^' ^^ " ^ ° ^ ^^"^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ " ^^^"^ "^^• ' ^ ^ ' ^ ' ^ ^^' ^^ ""^^ ^ ° " S ^' l ^ *^ P^'^ ^^' ^'.^ ''''^^^ '''' ^^""^ ^^ "'^"^ ^ ^" P^'^ V^ ^^ chuyen len da gay mua Idn, gidng, Idc to tren khu vuc va hinh nhung tran IQ Idn va lu quet lam truot Id ddt, xdi Id bd song A,Tstii,' u u- ^ ã \u u- ãô -^ ^^^' ^^" ^ ^ ^^^ ^^^° ^^"^ "^^P " ^ ^ ^^° ^^^ ^ ^ ^""f" ^^^ ^™S vao miia khd Tuy Thira Thien Hue chiu nhieu tac ddng ciia BDKH, ~ , , , ~~ I Nguai phan bien: TS Tran Van Dat Ngay nhgn bai- 21/11/2013 ' Ngay thong qua phan bi?n: 06/3/2014 Ngay duy?t dang: 06/5/2014 34 TAP CHf KHOA HOC VA C O N G N G H E THUY LOl S 22 - 2014 I KHOA HOC ^*J»lMcl!M!l^ nhimg cho den van chua cd mot kit qua nghien ciru nao danh gia tac ddng cua BDKH ciing nhu de xuat ke hoach hanh ddng cho chinh quyIn tmh viec ling phd vdi BDKH ddi vdi CO sd ting ndng nghiep va ndng thdn Trong bai bao nay, chung tdi se gidi thieu phuang phap danh gia thiet hai tac ddng ciia BDKH den he thdng co sd tang ndng nghiep va ndng thdn tmh Thira Thien Hul lam co sd cho viec xay dyng ke hoach hanh dpng ung phd vdi BDKH ciia dia phuong + R (Risk - nii ro) la kha nang tdn tbdt tai bien gay + H (Hazard - tai bien): la kha nang xay tai bien + V (Vulnerability - kha nang tdn thuong): Kha nang tai bien xay cd the gay tdn thuong (tdn that) den ngudi, mdi trudng va cac ddi tugng Hen quan tdi ddi song san xuat, sinh hoat ciia ngudi + E (value of vulnerable Elements - gid tri cua cdc yeu td cd thi bi tdn thSt) II PHU'CNG FRAP DANH GIA Cac yeu td c6 the bi tdn that bao gdm (nha cira, cdng trinh giao thdng, thiiy Igi, ba tang 2.1 Cong thuc xac dinh t/iiet hai ndng thdn nhu: giao thdng ndng thdn, dudng Tren the gidi cd nhieu phuang phap xac dinh gia dien, trudng trani ndng thdn, nude sach va tri ton thuang bien ddi hau ddi vdi ITnh VSMT ndng thdn, ), cac hoat dpng sinh ke, vyc CO sd tang nhu: mdi trudng, va cac gia tri vd hinh khac Phuong phap dy kien tac dpng: Ndi dimg chinh Trong bai bao sir dung Phuang phap lugng gia cua phuong phap dua tren gia dinh mdi quan tdn that de danh gia tac ddng cua BDKH den he giira cac dieu kien hau vdi cac dieu kien he thdng co sd tang ty nhien khac lich sir dugc lap lai hoan toan ho5c xay gan dung tuong lai va 1.1 Trinh tu ddnh gid tuong quan so sanh ve tdc dp xu the giira cac yeu Budc 1: Danh gia tac ddng ciia bien ddi hau d thdi ky nin (1980-1999) (ling vdi td thdi gian qua van tdn tai qua khir; cac dieu kien kinh te, xa bdi, mdi trudng thdi Phuang phap tuong ty thyc nghiem Ndi dung ky nen); ciia phuong phap la minh boa cac dieu kien Budc 2: Danh gia tac ddng ciia bien ddi khi hau cac kjch ban deu la dieu kien hau d thdi ky hien tai (2000- 2010) ung vdi tuong lai va danh gia ve dieu kien ty nhien hay cac dieu kien kinh te, xa hpi, mdi trudng thdi tai nguyen thien nhien deu la tac ddng dy kien ky hien tai); Cac dy kien Uong nhieu trudng hgp chi la Budc 3: Danh gia tac ddng ciia bien ddi ngoai suy ve phia tuong lai, cd hoac khdng kem hau tuong lai (iing vdi cac kich ban bien theo cac gia dinh tuong ty thyc nghiem ddi hau va dieu kien kinh te, xa bdi, mdi Phuang phap lugng gia tdn that la phuong phap trudng tuong lai theo khung thdi gian quy cac tdn thSt BDKH vl gia tri, phuang danh gia); phap ciia ICG (Trung tam qudc te ve Dja + Danh gia tac ddng ciia bien ddi hau tai biln, Vien Dia Ky thuat Nauy) nghien ciiu Uong tucmg lai dugc thyc hien theo cac kjch ban bien ddi hau va nude bien dang khac de xuat va cac kich ban phat trien kinh te xa hdi Trong cac phuong phap tren, phuong phap khac ciia timg dia phuong; lugng gia tdn that cd uu diem han ca Kha tang + Danh gia tac ddng cua bien ddi hau ton that mpt hoac mgt loat cac tai bien thien cd cac dieu chinh quan trpng ve chien nliien cd thi tinh toan bing cdng thiic khai quat luge, chinh sach, ke hoach, quy hoach phat nhu sau: trien nganh va phat trien kinh te xa hdi ciia dia phucmg; R = H I^.f, do: TAP CHl KHOA HQC VA C O N G N G H E THUY LQI SO 22 - 2014 35 KHOA HOC + Danh gia tac'ddng cua biln ddi hau cd thi dugc thyc hien theo timg ITnh vyc tang ndng nghiep va ndng thdn, theo vimg dia ly + Lya chpn cac diem nghien ciiu dien hinh + Danh gia tac ddng cua bien ddi hau can cd sy tham gia cua cac ben lien quan d dia phuang, trung uong, cac y kien chuyen gia, cdng ddng 2.3 Trinh tucdc budc thuc hien Budc 1: Diiu tra thu thap sd lieu Budc 2: Danh gia tdng quan hien trang co sd ting ndng nghiep va ndng thdn, hien trang phat triln kinh te, xa hpi, dinh hudng phat triln kinh tl xa hdi ciia viing mien Budc 3: Lya chpn kjch ban bien ddi hau ddi vdi tung viing, mien Budc 4: Xay dyng tieu chi danh gia anh hudng ciia bien ddi hau den be thdng co sd tang ndng nghiep va ndng thdn - Budc 5: danh gia anh hudng ciia bien ddi hau din he thdng co sd ting ndng nghiep va ndng thdn 2.4 Cdc biiu hien cua biin ddi hau Biln dpng ve nhiet dp Thay ddi ve lugng mua Tang cudng va tan suat bao Nude bien dang 2.5 Nhan dien tdc dpng Tac ddng cua biln ddi hau den tang ndng nghiep dugc gidi ban la cac tac ddng tryc tilp Cac tac ddng gian tiep anh hudng din kinh tl, xa hgi, siic khoe cdng ddng, ndng nghiep, da dugc nghien ciiu cac nhiem vy khac, vay cac tac ddng gian tilp khdng dl cap nhiem vy Tac ddng ciia bien ddi hau tryc tilp den tang ndng nghiep dugc nhan dien theo bang 2.1; Biing 2.1 Ciic dang tac dong cua BDKH den he thong cff so' tang NN&NT Cac dang tac dong Lam thay ddi tien va thdi gian thi cdng Lam hu hdng va giam tudi tho cdng trinh An mon cac cdng trinh ven bien Tang mire dp pha hoai lam hu hdng cdng trinh lii lyt xay thucmg xuyen bon, manh ban, thdi gian ngap lau hem Pha hiiy va lam hu hdng cdng trinh co sd ba tang ndng nghiep mua bao cudng dd Idn xay Chi phi xay dung tang Chi phi sira chiia thudng xuyen tang Nude bien dang + + + 2.6 Xac dinh mire dp tdc dpng Loai thien tai Bao, ap Lu lut; sat Han han thap nhiet ddi Id dat + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Nhiet dp tang + + + + + + + + + da la 15 diem Viec cho dilm dugc thyc hien Viec danli gia mire dp tac ddng cua bien ddi theo cac y kien chuyen gia hau den timg viing mien dugc thuc hien theo Ket qua dy bao miic tac ddng cua bien bang 2.2 Ket qua danli gia miic dp tac dpng ciia ddi hau din nam 2020 cho cac viing BDKH den timg viing mien dugc the hien bang dugc the hien bang 7.12, ket qua cho diem sd, dao dpng tir 0-3, la tac dpng manh thay VLing ven bien chiu miic tac ddng Idn nhat; la klidng tac ddng, tdng dilm tac ddng tdi nhat 67,0% 36 TAP CHl KHOA HOC VA C O N G N G H E THUY LOl Sd 22 - 2014 I KHOA HOC ^•I.IJIJ.HtWaB Bang 2.2 Mire dp tac dong H {%) Vimg dia ly Vung ven bien Viing trung du Vimg mien nui Loai tliien tai Nuac Bao, ap Lu lut; Han bien sat thap han dang nhiet doi la dat 2 2 Chu thich: Cho diem 1, 2, tuong iing cho timg viing, iing vdi timg loai thien tai cy thi tac ddng den he thdng co sd t4ng ndng nghiep va ndng thdn + 3: tac ddng manh 2: tac ddng trung binh Tong Nhiet Tyle Diem (%) 10 1 67,0 46,7 40,0 + 1: tac ddng thap f trdng: khdng tac dpng Tdng diem: •I- Tac ddng manh 11-15 diem -I- Tac dpng trung binh 6-10 diem + Tac dpng thap_< diem 2,7 Ddnh gid mire dp uu tien phdt trien he thing Cff sd Ita tdng NN&NT trien kinh te chung cua dat nude, nganh va ciia vimg Danh gia mire dp uu tien dugc lap theo Viec danh gia mire dp uu tien cho phat trien cac dang bang ma tran (bang 2.3); vdi vimg uu tien cdng trinh co sd tang ndng ngliiep va ndng cao cho diem cao nhat la diem; viing cho uu thdn dya theo cac quy hoach phat trien ciia cac tien thap, diem cao nliiit la 15 diem, viec cho nganh kinh te khac nhau, cac chien luge phat diem dugc thyc hien theo cac y kien chuyen gia Bang 2.3 Danh gia miic UTI tien PT he thong cong trinh CSHT theo tirng vung _^ Loai Diem miTC u'u tien Khu vyc He thong cong trinh thuy loi He thong giao thong nong thon He thong luai dien nong thon Cong trinh nuac sach va VSMT nong thon Nha a Ichu dan cu nong thon Cac cong trinh ca sa tang Ichac 10 10 15 10 10 10 Chii thich: Cho diem 5,10, 15 tuong iing: + 5: Cao + 10: Trung binh + 15: Thap 2.8 Khd ndng thich uitg cua tirng vimg Kha nang thich irng ddi vdi timg loai cdng trinh co sd tang ndng nghiep va ndng thdn d timg viing khac nhau; kha nang phu thupc nhilu va nhan thiic ciia ngudi dan, tiem nSng kinh tl, tap quan ciia viing dd Viec danh gia kha nang thich iing ciia timg ^ n g dugc lap theo bang 2.4 Ket qua danh gia kha nang thich ling the bien bang bang diem, va y kien cbii quan ciia chuyen gia, ket qua cho mdc diem: 5, 10, 15 diem: vdi kha nang thich ung cao diem; trung binh 10 diem va thap 15 diem TAP CHl KHOA HOC VA C O N G N G H E THUY LOl S6 22 - 2014 KHOA HOC Bang 2.4 Danh gia kha nang thich irng vol biln 461 h$u theo Imh virc Chij thich: Cho diem 5,10, 15 tucmg tai + 5: Cao + 10: Trung binh + 15:Thip 1.3 Tdng hap ddnh gid de bi tdn llmang biin Si kitl liau din lie thong ca s& tang nong nghiep vd nong thon Lap bang tong hop danh gia phan tich da muc tieu vai cac y^u t6 dau vao la: i: Mire tac dong cua biln doi hau den he thong ca sa tSng nong nghiep va nong thon; ii: Mire uu tien phat triSn he thong ca sa tSng nong nghiep va nong thon ciia cac vimg sinh thai; iii; Kha nang thich tag vai bien doi Idii hau cua viing Phan tich tong hop ca y€u t6 cho k& qua danh gia tinh dl bi ton thuang bien d6i Ithi hau cua cong trinh co sa tjng nong nghiep va nong thon Ket qua cho diem tir 1025 diSm khu vuc t6n thuang thdp; vai s6 kiem tir 25-30 diem khu vuc bi tin thuang trung binh; khu vuc co s6 diSm tit 30-45 t6n thuong cao K& qua danh gia dugc lap theo theo bang 2.5, viec danh gia phu thuoc vao y kien chuyen gia la chu yeu Bang 2.5 T6ng hop danh gia d£ bj t6n fhuffng Bien d6i klit hau den he th6ng cong trinh co' Sff t3ng nong nghiep va nong thon (chi so V) Vung dja ly I 11 38 Tac dong (H) Vung ven bien He thong cong trinh thuy lai He thong giao thong nong thon He thong luoi dien nong thon Cong trinh NS va VSMT nong thon Nha a khu dan cu nong thon Cac cong trinh ca so tang khac Viing trung du He thong cong trinh thiiy Igi He thong giao thong nong thon He thong luai dien nong thon Cong trinh NS va VSMT nong thon Nha a khu dan cu nong thon Cac cong trinh co sir tang khac TAP CHl KHOA HOC VA CONG NGHE THUY LOI S6 22 - 2014 T6ng(V) Noi dung Mirc Kha nang Diem nu thich ung tien PT (%) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 15 10 10 10 10 15 10 10 10 25 30 40 30 30 30 55,6 66,7 88,9 66,7 66,7 66,7 7 7 7 9 9 9 10 15 10 10 10 21 26 31 26 26 26 46,7 57,8 68,9 57,8 57,8 57,8 KHOA HOC Viing dia ly III ViinE mien niii He thdng cdng trinh thiiy loi He thdng giao thdng ndng thdn He thdng ludi dien ndng thdn Cdng trinh NS va VSMT ndng thdn Nha d khu dan cu ndng thdn Cac cdng trinh co sd tang khac Tac dong (H) 6 6 6 IB-l-li'UfHil-M Noi dung T6ng(V) Mtrc Kha nang iru Diem thich irng tien PT (%) 10 10 9 5 5 5 21 20 21 20 20 20 46,7 44,4 46,7 44,4 44,4 44,4 Chit thich: Cho diem tucmg iing cho timg vimg iing vdi timg noi dung cu the duac xac dinh thdng qua cac danh gia d cac bang phia tren Ket qua danh gia dugc the hien nhu sau: +- Tir 10 - 25 diem: Kha nang de bi tdn thuong thap + Tir 25 - 30 diem: Kha nang de bj tdn thuang trung binh + Tir 30-45 diem^: Kha nang de bi tdn thuong cao Lifu y: Viec cho diem phai dua vao y kien chuyen gia ve tam quan cua timg loai tac dong, mirc dp uu tien phat trien va kha nang thich iing ciia timg viing 2.10 Ud'c lu'O'ng kinh phi gid titdnh cff sd Iia Diln, Huong Tra, Phii Vang, Huong Thiiy va Phu Lgc vdi dien tich gieo trdng khoang 56 tdng tren dia bdn Viec udc lugng gia tri cdng trinh co sd tang 58 ngan ha, dd cd khoang 40 ngan ba ndng nghiep va ndng thdn -gia tri E (ty ddng), dang dugc sii dung de trdng lua va cay hang nam nhu lac, ngd, rau mau Day la vimg dat gia tai thdi diem danh gia (nam 2011) dugc can thdp trung vdi cao tir -0,5m den +3m, he cii vao viec tdng khdi lugng cdng trinh tren dia thdng de bao thap, nam sat dgc theo be dam ban, gia tri dau tu ciia nha nude va nhan dan pha Tam Giang - Cau Hai va cira bien Thuan thdi gian vua qua, gia trj hao mdn Tren An - Tu Hien CO sd udc lugng gia tri cdng trinh ciia ITnh vuc tren dia ban tinh (Gia tri E tren chi la vi du Theo kich ban BDKH Bd Tai nguyen va cho viec xay dung phuong phap danli gia tac Mdi trudng cdng bd nam 2012, dd cd ddng ciia BDKH din co sd ba tang NN&NT kich ban BDKH cho Thira Thien Hul Vl tren dia ban tinh Thira Thien Hue) nhiet do, din nam 2020 tang 0,5''C so vdi thap III AP DUNG PHirOKG PHAP TfNH nien 1980-1999 Ve nude bien dang den nam THIET HAI DO BDKH DEN CO SO HA 2020 dang cao 9cm va lam ngap khoang 300 TANG NONG NGHIEP VA NONG THON Muc nude bien dang den cuoi the ky 21 khu vuc Trung Trung Bg (trong cd Thira CHO TiNH THlTA THIEN HUE Thien - Hul) theo kich ban den nam 2050 Nhu chiing ta da biit, Thira Thien Hul cd den dang len 25cm va den 70cm vao cuoi the ky hon 70% dan sd sdng d ndng thdn va sinh song Nude biln dang se tac ddng den cac cdng trinh bang nghi ndng va cac nghe lien quan den xay dung, dd cd he thdng de dieu, giao ndng nghiep, phu thugc nhieu vao dieu kien tu thdng, cang ca, nha cira, sinh ke ngudi dan ven nhien va tai nguyen nude Trong dd, ndng biln, ven sdng va bao tdn da dang sinh hgc nghiep, thiiy san la nganh bj tac dgng manh me Du bao, tinh trang BDKH se cdn tac dgng xau nhdt bdi BDKH Thira Thien Hul cd dien tich nhieu nam tiep theo vdi mirc cang Idn trdng lua phan Idn tap trung d viing ddng bang th§p triing ciia cac huyen Phong Dien, Quang han Din nam 2020, cudng va tan suat bao, TAP CHi KHOA HOC VA C O N G N G H E THUY LOI 5(5 22 - 2014 KHOA HOC T ^ E I M ! B i ^ B lu va cac loai thien tai nhu Idc td, trugt dat, sat Id bd sdng, bd biln tang manh gay thiet hai hfing nam khoang 10% GDP cua tinh Tac ddng Idn nhdt de dga su phat trien bin viing ciia tinh la nude bien dang BDKH Ngoai ra, mgt so dien tich dat ndng nghiep ciing phai chuyen muc dich sir dung sang lam nha d, cac cdng trinh cdng cdng de phuc vu cho viec di dan, tai djnh cu cho ngudi dan vimg bi ngap sat Id, viing cd nguy co cao Ap dung phuang phap tinh nhu tren, nhiem vu da du bao thiet hai tac dgng cua BDKH din ITnh vuc CO sd tdng ndng nghiep va nong thdn tren dia ban tinh Thira Thien Hue den nam 2020 udc 7296 ty dong; din nam 2030 udc khoang 8755 ty ddng, ITnh vuc thuy loi bi (chi tinh cac cdng trinh thuy Igi ndi ddng) thiet hai nang nhat chiem tdi 30% (Bang 3.1) Bang 3.1 Bang du- bao thiet hai BDKH dSn cff s* HTNN va NT Thua Thien Hue TT Viing, hang muc I Viing ven bien He thong cong trinh thiiy loi He thong giao thong nong thon He thong luai dien nong thon Cong trinh NS va VSMT nong thon Nha a khu dan cu nong thon Cac cong trinh ca so tang khac Cong I Vung trung du He thong cong trinh thiiy lai He thong giao thong nong thon He thong luoi dien nong thon Cong trinh NS va VSMT nong thon Nha a khu dan cu nong thon Cac cong trinh co so tang khac Cong II Viing mien mil He thong cong trinh thiiy lai He thong giao thong nong thon He thong luai dien nong thon Cong trinli NS va VSMT nong thon Nha khu dan cu nong thon Cac cong trinh co sa tUng khac Cong III Tong cgng H (%) n III 0,67 0,67 0,67 0,67 0,67 0,67 0,56 3.000 0,67 1.500 0,89 300 0,67 200 0,67 2.000 0,67 800 7.800 1.118 673 179 90 898 359 3.317 0,67 0,67 0,67 0,67 0,67 0,67 0,56 3.600 0,67 1.800 0,89 360 0,67 240 0,67 2.400 0,67 960 9.360 0,46 0,46 0,46 0,46 0,46 0,46 0,46 0,58 0,69 0,58 0,58 0,58 1.000 2.500 1.000 900 3.000 1.500 9.900 212 667 317 240 800 400 2.636 0,46 0,46 0,46 0,46 0,46 0,46 0,46 0,58 0,69 0,58 0,58 0,58 0,40 0,40 0,40 0,40 0,40 0,40 0,47 4.500 846 0.44 1.200 211 0,47 300 56 0,44 200 35 0,44 600 106 0,44 500 88 7.300 1.342 25.000 7.296 0,40 0,40 0,40 0,40 0,40 0,40 0.47 5.400 1.015 0,44 1.440 253 68 0.47 360 42 0,44 240 127 0,44 720 106 0,44 600 8.760 1.611 30.000 8.755 IV KET LUAN VA KHUYEN NGHI 4.1 Ket luan Theo kjch ban BDKH, nhiet trung binh tinh Thira Thien Hue co xu hucmg tang din theo thai gian a tat ca cac miia, thoi ky 40 Niim 2030 Nam 2020 E R H V R V E (%) (10.'d) (10.* d) (%) (%) (10.'d) (10.'d) 1.341 808 215 108 1.077 431 3.980 1.200 254 3.000 800 1.200 381 1.080 288 3.600 960 1.800 480 11.880 3.163 thang Xll- II CO miic tang nho han cac miia khac nam Theo kich ban phat thai cao A2, vao cuoi the ky 21, nhiet trung binh nam co kha nang tang len , r c , theo kich ban phat thai trung binh, mire tang la 2,5°C va theo kich ban phat thai thdp la 1,6°C TAP CHl KHOA HOC VA CONG NGHE T H O Y LOI Sfi 22 - 2014 I Vac gi&a the ky 21, nhiet dp trung binh nam CO xu huang tang dan tir Bac xuong Nam, tir Dong sang Tay Luong mua vao mua kho a Thira Thien Hue CO sir tang giam khac giira cac khu vuc tinh, nhien tinh trung binh cho toan tinh thi luong mua miia kho co xu huang giam va miia mua c6 xu huong tang vao cuoi thi ky 21 la 7,2% (theo kich ban B2) Muc nuac bien dang bien doi hau vao _,„„ , ,, _,, ™, ,• , i nam 2100 cho khu vuc Thua Thien Hue ,, , ~n -, ^~ '•-1 • , , khoang 57-73 cm doi vai kich ban trung binh ° Nhihig danh gia, phan tich ban d&u cho thay: BDKH da, dang va se co nhimg tac dpng nhit dinh toi nhieu Ihih vuc kinh tl- xa hpi tren dia ban tinh KHOA HOC ^AI;M;M!I:^ Thita Thien Hul, dac biet la cac linh vuc nhu co so ting nong nghiep va nong thoa Thiet hai tac dpng cua BDKH den liiih vuc co so ting nong nghiep va nong thor.Thira Thien HuS tit nam 1979 dSn 2010 uoc khoang 3250 ty d6ng, dSn 2020 uoc khoang 7296 ty d6ng va din 2030 uoc khoang 8755 ty dong Trong linh virc thiiy lai bj thiet liai nang nl nhlt , ^' ',- ' ,' 4.2 Khuyen nghi T, , r-, , T-, ,, ; ; , , ,i, , unh Thua Thien Hue can xay dung ke hoach , ., , , , /.:° ,, : hanh dong thich img va giam thieu tac dong ^•.^ , , f ,."= ^ ^ , A^ vol BDKH nuac men dang tren dia ban Can co dau tu trpng tam, trpng diem cho cac nganh nghe, dac biet la cac cong trinh linh vuc thuy lai nhu de, ke, , TAI LIEU THAM KHAO [1] GS.TS Dao Xuan Hpc Ke hoach thich img vai bien doi hau ITnh vuc nong nghiep va phat trien nong thon (Tap chi Tai nguyen nuoc so 1-2009) [2] Nhiem vu cdp Bo: "Danh gia tac dpng cOa BDKH den he thong ca so tang nong nghiep va Nong thon va de xuat cac giai phap giam thieu" TS Le Xuan Quang- Vien Khoa hpc Thuy loi Viet Nam chii nhiem thuc hien 2010-2012 [3] Vien Khi tuang Thiiy van Moi trucrng, tai lieu huang dan danh gia tac dpng ciia bien doi hau va xac dinh cac giai phap thich irng (2011) [4] D6 tai d p nha nuoc: "Nghien ciiu tac dpng ciia BDKH toan cSu din cac yeu to va hien tuong hau cue doan a Viet Nam, kha nang du bao va giai phap chien lupe img pho", PGS.TS Phan Van Tan truang Dai hpc Qu6c gia Ha Npi chu tri thuc hien nam 2009-2010 [5] D I tai cSp nha nuac: "Nghien ciru anh huang ciia BDKH din cac dieu kien tu nhien, tai nguyen thien nliien va dl xuSt cac giai phap chien lupc phong tranh, giam nhe va thich nghi, phuc vu phat triln bin vung kinh tl xa hpi Viet Nam" TS Nguyin Van Thing, Vien Khoa hpc Khi tuang Thuy van va Mci truong thuc hien tir 12/2007 - 11/2010 [6] Bp Tai nguyen Moi truang, B6 sung kich ban biln dii hau va nuac biln dang, 2012 [7] Chiln lupc phat triln kinh te xa hpi eiia Viet Nam 2011- 2020 [8] Dl tai cdp nha nuac KC08.13/06-10 "Nghien cim anh huong ciia BDKH den cac dieu kien tu nhien, tai nguyen thien nhien va dl xudt cac giai phap chien lupc phong tranh giam nhe va thich nghi, phuc phu phat triln kinh tl- xa hpi Viet Nam", 2008-2010, TS Nguyen TJt Thang thuc hien [9] Cruz, Harasawa, Anokhin, N.H.Ninh Impacts, Adapttion and Vulnerability of the Intergovernmental panel on Climate changes Cambridge University Press,2007 [10] www.baothuathienIiue.vn Dien biln va tac dpng ciia BDKH den tinh hinh phat trien ciia Thira Thien Hue TAP CHl KHOA HOC VA CONG NGHE THUY LOI SO 22 - 2014 41