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35(4), 381 386 Tap chi CAC KHOA HOC V£ TRAI DAJ N/DANH GIA TINH DE BI TON THLTONG DO HAN HAN DOI V6l SlT PHAT TRIEN KINH TE XA HOI TAY NGUYEN THONG QUA CHi SO NHAY CAM HAN KINH TE XA HOI LE VAN HU''''ONG[.]
35(4), 381-386 Tap chi CAC KHOA HOC V£ TRAI DAJ N/DANH GIA TINH DE BI TON THLTONG DO HAN HAN DOI V6l SlT PHAT TRIEN KINH TE - XA HOI TAY NGUYEN THONG QUA CHi SO NHAY CAM HAN KINH TE - XA HOI LE VAN HU'ONG, PHI THI THU HOANG E-mail: huong_ig@yahoo.com Viin Dia ly Viin Hdn Idm Khoa hgc vd Cong nghi Viet Nam Ngiy nhan bai: - - l.Mddau Han la hien tugng thdi tiet kbd khdng binh thudng d mgt khu vgc mflt thdi gian dai khflng cd mua hay mua khdng dang ke, Theo Trung tam Khi tugng Thuy van Qudc gia, cd cac logi hgn han la ban tugng, han nflng nghiep, hgn thuy van va ban kinh tl - xa hfli, dd han kmh tl - xa hpi dugc hiflu la ban cd inh hudng din nhu cau cung cap nudc phyc vy phat trien kinh tl-xahfli[ll] Hgn ban x i y m i cd anb hudng den nhu c^u cung c^p nudc phyc vg phat trien kinh le - x i hfli, dugc ggi la ban kinh tfl - xa hpi Hgn kinh te x i hfli cd thfl xay ca khdng cd ban tugng thiiy v i n nhu cau nudc cua cae nginh kinh tl x i hgi tang cao Nd dac trung hda hgn hin ddi vdi cic ngudn, dilm sii dgng nudc ldn Hifln eae nha chuyfln mdn thudng dya vao cic chi s6 hgn tugng, ban thiiy van dfl danh gii inh hudng ciia hgn hin ddi vdi sy phat trifln kinh te - x i hfli Viet Nam phuang phap danh gia tinh dfl bi tfln thuang (Vulnerability) cua ban ban ddi vdi sg phit trien kinh t l - x i hgi ciia rapt khu vyc cdn mdi me Trong bii bio n i y chiing tdi gidi tbiflumflt so kit qui budc diu ciia viflc d i n h g i i tinh de bi ton thuong ciia hgn hin ddi vdi sg phat trien kinh tfl x i hfli Ihdng qua chi sfl nhgy cam bgn kinh tfl - xa hOi (SDI - Socio-economic drought vulnerability index) de rtr dd kiln nghj cie giii phip phdng ngira v i hgn chi lic ddng ciia hgn kinh te - xa hfli tai Tiy Nguyfln Tong quan dieu ki^n t y nhien v i tinh hinh ban h i n if Tay Nguyfln Tiy Nguyen gflm tinh: Kon Tum, Gia Lai, Dik Lak, Dak Ndng va Lam Ddng, dien tich tg nhien 54.474km^, chiem 16,8% dien tich ca nudc, dan sd dfln cudi nam 2010 li 5.215.877 ngudi, la mflt bay vimg kinh te - sinb thai ciia nude ta bien nay, Tay Nguyfln li vimg cd diflu kifln dja hinh, dit dai, hgu kha da dang Dp cao trung binh ciia viing khoang 600-800m nhung cd nhieu day niii triing diflp v i cao ban 2.000m, Khi hau nhiflt ddi gid miia cao nguyen li chii yeu v i chia Ihinh miia ro rflt: miia khd v i mua mua Miia mua tai Tay Nguyen thira ara, hay xay lii lyt, ngap iing, dd miia khd thi thieu i m nghiem trpng Tay Nguyen cd rapt mang ludi sdng ngdi diy dac, nhiflu ghlnh thic Bfln hfl thflng sdng chinh tai day gdm co: sdng Pfl K6 - Se San, sdng Ba Ayun, sdng Srepook v i sdng Dong Nai vdi trii lugng thiiy nang ldn, chiflm khoang 22% nguon thuy nang ciia ca nudc Hifln nay, ngudn nudc sinh hogt cbii ylu tai Tiy Nguyen la nudc may, gieng dio bogc giflng khoan cd bam, cac ngudn nudc khac chiflm ty lfl nhd Nguon nudc sii dyng ndng nghiflp dugc ngudi dan lay tir cic sdng sudi, ao hd d l tudi liia va diing chan nudi (cbiflm bon 70% ca ciu ngudn nudc tudi lua) Nhin chung, tgi tinh thuflc Tiy Nguyfln, ngudi dan cd dii nudc d l phgc vy sinb boat, nhung sin xuil thudng xiy thieu nudc, d?ic biflt vao miia khfl Nguon tai nguyen rimg tai Tay Nguyen dang suy giim, nang tai sinh rit khd khan Day ciing la mgt nhimg nguyen nhan din dfln dien bien bat Ihudng cua hau Tay Nguyfln Tay Nguyen la vung dat cua dat dd bazan giau dinh dirdng vdi difln ticb ldn nbat ci nudc, tao diflu kifln cho viec trdng cac cay cdng nghiep chuyfln canh vdi difln tich ldn Hifln nay, Tiy Nguyfln la viing dit da dan tge, da van hda, nai cu tni ciia 47 dan tgc anh em, vdi rit nhieu dac trung, sac thii ciia nhiflu tdc ngudi, nhieu dia phuong ca nudc hgi tu Nhiing nim gan day, bau Tiy Nguyfln dien bifln that Ihudng, miia mua ket thiic sdm, lugng mua giam va thudng xuyen xiy tinh trang kho ban Sg da dang cua cic loai dia binh vdi eic cao khic tgo nhiflu tieu vimg bau Dieu niy khien cho tinb binh ban bin d Tiy Nguyen dien phiirc tap, giy nhiflu thiet hai, nbat li nara trd lai diy Miia khd bgn d Tiy Nguyfln keo dai khoang thing, tir thing 11 nara trudc dfln thing nam sau Riflng nam 2012 miia kho d Tiy Nguyen bat diu sdm bon so vdi quy luat (phd bien vao tuan giira thing 10) Trong thing cudi nara (thing 10, 11 vi 12) hiu bet cic tinh Tay Nguyfln khdng mua hoac mua vdi lugng khdng dang ke (phd bien thieu hut tir 40 - 60% so vdi trung binh nhieu nam cimg ky), ket bgp thing vi 2-2013 nhiflu noi khdng mua nfln hgn han di xay tren khap dia ban cac tinh Tay Nguyen Miia khd nam 2012 - 2013 can kiflt xiy nghiflm trgng, ddng chay trfln mflt sd sflng sufli d mirc rat thap, so vdi trung blnb cimg ky nhieu noi ddng chiy thieu hgt 60 - 70%> Qua sd liflu quan trie dugc tbi can kiet dien gay gat nhat tap trung d tinh Dak Lak, sau dfln hai linh Gia Lai vi Kon Tum; tinh Lara Ddng va Dak Nflng theo cac cbi tieu thi d miic bat dau xiy can kiflt [1] Nhu vgy, Tay Nguyen ed nhiflu Igi thfl va ciing khdng it khd khan Irong phit trifln kinh te - xa bgi Nhung dgc diflm ty nhien va xa hfli ndi trfln ciia Tay Nguyen da cd nhirng tic ddng den tinh de bi tdn thuong va nhay cim ciia ban kinh tfl - xa hgi Dinh gia tinh de bi ton thuong cua hgn hin vdi sg* phit trien kinh te - xa hgi Tay Nguyfln thong qua chi so nhay cam ban kinh te - xi hgi Hifln hgn kinh tfl - xa hgi cd thfl dugc phin c^p eac miic dg khac nhu: Tuong ddi am; Gan diflu kifln binh Ihudng; Han nh?; Han trung binh; Han nang; Hgn nghiem trgng; Han rit nghiem trgng [9] 382 Dfl danh gii tinh de bj ton thucmg cua ban hin ddi vdi sg phat trifln kinh te - xa hdi Tay Nguyen, chiing tdi sii dgng cbi sd nhgy cim hgn kinh tfl - xi hdi Chi sd nhay cim ban kinh tl M hgi (SDI) xic dinh muc dg nhgy cam cda mdi qudc gia hoac viing ddi vdi ban kinh tfl xa hgi Chi sd dugc tinh loan dua tren xem xet ddng gdp GDP tur cac Unh vuc phi ndng nghiflp, ty lfl lao dgng ndng nghidp vi da dgng cay trdng Neu mgt qudc gia cd ty' 1^ ddng gdp GDP CU3 cac nginh phi ndng nghidp cao, t;^ lfl lao dgng ndng nghidp thip vi da dang cay trdng cao thi nguy ca hgn kinh te - xa hdi cing giim hgn kbi tugng xiy Muc dg quan trgng cua sg da dgng cay trdng ciia mgt qudc gta phg thudc vio kha ning ddng gdp cua ndng nghiflp ddi vdi nen kinh te qudc gia dd Gia tri SDI nim khoang tir den 100 vdi 100 thi hifln mirc dd nhgy cam ldn nhit [3] SDI dugc tinh theo cdng thirc nhu sau: SDI = 0,4.IDI + 0,4.EDI -I- 0,2.CDL Trong do: _ A^.actual - A^ mJn A^.ma]i - A^ E^actual-E^ 100 £„max - £„ ^ P ^ ^ C , a c m a / - C , ^ ^ ^ ^^ ^ ^ ^ , C,max-C, ' Trong do: IDI: chi sd da dgng thu nh|p EDI: cbi so da dang viflc Iim CDI: chi sd pham vi ciy trflng [2], Av: Phan trim ddng gdp ciia ndng nghiflp cho GDP qudc gia Ea: Phan trim lao dgng ndng nghiflp trfln long sd lao ddng Ci: Chi sd da dang ciy P: Ty sd dign tich logi ciy trdng trfln ting sd difln tich ciy trdng Gia tri Ci cing nhd thi miic dg da dang ciy trdng cang cao Ap dgng cdng thiic tren tinh chi sd nhay cam ban kinh tfl - xi hgi cho tinh viing Tay Nguyfln, chung ldi Iga chgn nguon so li^u tinh toin tir tu liflu kinh tl - xi hgi 63 tinh, thinh Vi^t Nam, Nba xuat bin Thdng ke nam 2009 Sd li^u thdng ke - So Iao dflng nflng nghiflp (ngudi) dugc su dgng Ii sd liflu nam 2007, cd sg ddng nhit - Tdng sd lao dgng (ngudi) ve cic sd Uflu tinh toin de viflc dinh gii hgn kinh tfl - xi h$i cd sg so sinb dfl ding hem Cic chi sd - Dien tich cay Iiia (ba) riflng biflt dugc tinh toin sd liflu so sinh trfln pham - Dientichciy (ha) vi moi tmh Ngoii sd lieu tinh toin cho viing TSy Nguyen, nhdm tic gii cdn tinh toin cho tat ca cic Ket qua tinh loan d tren cho thay tinh Tay tinh, thinh phd cdn Igi de tim gia tq ldn nhit vi Nguyen deu cd ty lfl lao dgng nflng nghiep tuong nho nbat ciia moi chi sd cac cflng thiic tinh duong va chiflm ty 1^ Idn long sd Iao dflng dang boat dgng cic nginh kinh te nen Do pham vi sd Uflu cdn hgn chfl, nhdm tic gii cbi sd da dang viflc lam (EDI) cua cac linh cd su lya chgn eay liia la cay trdng chinh dl tinh toin chi chenh lech khdng Idn (bdng 2) EDI tai Dik Ndng sd phgm vi ciy (CDI) Difln tich cay trlng cd gii Iri Idn nhat (92,39), thip nhit tai Gia Lai bii bio gdm cd dien tich ciy luong thgc cd (83,36) Trong dd, chi sd da dgng thu nhip (IDI) hgt (liia, ngfl), difln tich gieo trdng cic cay chit bflt vi cbi sd phgm vi cay trdng cd su phan biflt rfl ret cd Cli (khoai lang, sin) vi difln tich mgt sfl ciy giua cac tinb (bang I) Gia tii cao nhit ciia IDI edng nghiep hang nam (mia, lac) thuflc ve tinh Dak Lik, gia tri thap nhat thuflc vfl Kon Tum Muc cbenb lech vfl chi sfl IDI giiia tinh Cac sd li^u cua cac tinb, phd gflm cd: cao nhat va thip nhat kha ldn Bdng cho thay chi - Tflng sin pham trfln dia bin theo gia thgc te so ptigm vi cay trdng (CDI) ed su dflng deu tgi tinh (ty dflng) Kon Tum, Gia Lai, Dik Lik, thap nhat thuflc vl linh - Ddng gdp ciia nginh ndng nghiep tdng Dik Ndng - nai cd difln tich liia nhd nhat vimg, cao nhit thupc ve Lim Ddng sin pham tren dia bin theo gii thgc te (ty ddng) BAng K^t qui tinh toan chi so da dgng thu Kon Tum GiaLal Bik Ldk Dlk Nfing LamDdng Tdng sdn phdm (GOP) trgn dja bdn (ty ddng) 6.314.4 9.486.9 15,306,3 10,240,9 12 546,1 nhgp (IDI) cua tinh v i i n g T3y Nguyen 117,5 4,421.3 187,6 5694.4 6.506.3 33,53 46,60 60,02 55,60 51,85 60.72 (Binh PtMiiic) s a n g K4t q u i ttnh t o i n chi s6 fla dang vigc lam (EDI) cua tinh v u n g T i y Nguyen Kon Tum Gia Lai BkklAk B6k Nfing Lflm Ddng TT SA lao ddng nOng nghidp (ngirfri) 143 900 394.400 573.300 167.100 464100 Tdng sd lao dfing (r>girfi^} 199 000 550 600 776.700 210 600 633.900 72,31 71,63 73.81 79,34 73,21 85.64 (ScTnLa) 0.45 (Hd Nfii) B i n g Ket quk t i n h t o i n c h i sA phgm vi cay trAng (CDI) cua tinh v u n g l a y Nguyen Tfintlnh DIQn llchcaylOa (ha) Dl^r< lich cfly Irdng ( h ~ 71000 0.328 0,108 23,300 Kon Tum Gia Lai 67,500 199,100 0.339 Blk Ldk 70,200 229 400 0,306 0,094 Dlk Nfing 11.400 76.100 0.150 0,022 Lflm Ddng 32 60O 59 200 0.551 0.303 Nguin: l A n g hgp vk tinh todn s i li$u [4-8.10] 0,115 0,991 (Cin Tho) 0,022 (Dlk Lik) Ap dung cdng thiic tinh chi sd nhgy cam hgn kinh tl - xa hdi (SDI) cho cic tuih Tay Nguyfln, chiing tdi cd dugc kit qui nhu sau (bdng 4) B i n g Bang tdng hgp tinh toan chi sd nhgy cam TT Ten tinh Kon Tum hgn kinh t e - x a hfli IDI EDI 54.23 84.16 CDI 8,84 SDI 57,12 Gia Lai 76,24 83,36 9,59 65,72 OdkLik 98,82 85,91 7,39 75.37 DikNOng 91,39 92.39 0.05 73.52 5,07 5,21 29,02 73.9: L3m Nguon: Tinh to^n t u ckc so Ii0u thong ke thu thgp Tai khu vuc nghien cuu, hogt dgng sin xuit nong nghiflp ddng gdp ldn vao ngudn thu nhip chinh Sd Iao dgng boat ddng sin xuit ndng nghiep tuang ddi Idn, sd lugng cay Irdng da dang, cay liia li ciy Iuong thgc quan trgng ciia viing nhung nhiing cay mang Igi gii tri kinh tfl cao Iai la cic cay cflng nghiep lau nim Han ban xay d phgm vi rgng ldn, miic dfl tir ban nang den nghiflm trpng Chinh vi vay cd the nhin dinh cbi so nhay cim vfl ban kinh tfl xa hfli ciia khu vuc nghien cim eao Theo kflt qua tinh toin ndi trfln, Dik Lik la tinh cd ehi sd nhay cim han kinh te - xi hgi ldn nhit Gii tri ciia SDI eang dan dfln 100 thi mdc dp nhay cam cing cao Cd the phan nhdm vfl mirc dfl nhay cim ban kinh tfl - xa hgi vdi raiic dg tir thap tdi cao, Nhdm gdra Kon Tum (SDI = 57,12), nbdra gflm Gia Lai (SDI = 65,72), nhdm gdm tinh cdn lgi (SDI hi 73 din 75) Trong tinb tai Tay Nguyfln, Kon Tum la tinb cd nganh ndng nghiflp ddng gdp thip nhit cho tdng sin pham tren dja ban, chiflm 33,53% Cbi sd da dang thu nhip ciing dat gia tri thip nhit (IDI = 54,23) Co cau kinh te tgi Kon Tura can dii ban so vdi cic tmh cdn lai cua vimg Nganh ndng nghiflp ddng vai trd quan trgng nfln kinh tfl tinh, nhung nen kinh te tinh khdng phg thupc ngng nl vio nginh ndng nghiflp nhu mflt sd tinh khac Tuy viy, sd Iao dgng ndng nghi?p cua Kon Tum chiflm ti If rat tdn tflng sd lao ddng boat dpng ciia cae nganh kinh tfl (72,31%) Ciy liia gifi radt vai trd thiet yflu ca cau cay Igi Kon Tura, nhung khdng phai la cay dpc canb ciia linh (P = 0,328) Kon Tum edn cd nhieu loai cay cdng nghiflp hing nim va lau nam va cd ddng gdp ldn cho gia tri sin xuit ndng nghiflp ciia tinh Diflu niy Cling tuang tg vdi cic tinh Gia Lai, Dak Lik Chi sd miic dg nhgy cam cua tinh Kon Tum vdi ban kinh tfl - xi hgi thugc loai trung binh (SDI = 57,12), chu ylu chi sd da dgng viflc Iam (EDI) cao, nhung vin thip nhit so vdi cic tinh cdn lgi Trudng hgp ciia Gia Lai ciing tuong tu nhu vdi Kon Tum Gia Lai cd ty trgng nginh ndng nghiep ca cau tdng sin pham tren dja ban eao ban Kon Tum nhung thap ban so vdi cac tinh cdn lgi, chi sd da dang vifc lam (EDI) va phgm vi cay trdng (CDI) gin tuang duang vdi Kon Tum Vi viy, chi so nhgy cam hgn kinh te - xa hgt ctia Gia Lai cao hon Kon Tum vi thap hon 3tinhcdn lgi Qua sd li^u thing kfl, cd thfl thiy nflng nghiflp ddng vai trd cbii dgo co cau kinh te Dak Lak (khoing trfln 60% tdng sin pham trfln dia bin) Ty trgng nganh ndng nghifp co ciu tdng sin phim cua Dak Lik cao thii ci nudc (chi sau Btnh Phudc) Trong dd ndng nghifp li nginh phg thugc vio dieu kifn tg nhifln va chiu anh hudng rit nghiem trgng tir ban hin Mat khac, tdng sin pham trfln dia ban cua Dik Lik vao loai cao nhit viing Dieu niy cing cho thiy sg phg thuflc cua nfln kinh tfl tinh vio nginh ndng nghiep Neu nginh ndng nghifp chiu thiet bgi n^ng nfl ciia hgn han se din dfln sg suy giira nfanh me cua tong sin pham tren dia ban tinh Nfln kinh tl tinh tuih trang dd kbd cd the phit trifln mdt cich bfln vfing vaflndinh Dik Ndng ciing la tinh cd nfln kinh tl ndn^ nghiflp vdi sd Iao ddng ndng nghifp chiflm ti If rat cao tdng sd lao dflng Ddng gdp ciia nginh ndng nghiflp tong sin pham trfln dia bin ciing tuang ddi cao, dgt 50,60% Nlu chi tinh hai cbi sd Dik Ndng khdng hon Dik Lik Tuy nhien, tinh cd difn tich cay liia vio log! thip nhit tinh ciia viing Tiy Nguyen Tbeo kflt qua tinh toin, difn tieh eay liia d Dik Ndng chi chiera 15% tdn^ difln tich ciy Theo cdng thiic tinh chi sfl nhgy cim hgn kinh tl - xa hgi (SDI), hing sd gin vdi chi sd pham vi cay trdng (CDI) thip hon so vdi hai chi sd cdn lai (0,2 so vdi 0,4) nfln SDI cua Dik Ndng cao nhimg van cd gii tx\ thip han so vdi Dik Lik vi ci ba chi sd (IDI, EDI, CDI) ciia Dik Lik deu cao, die biflt chi sd da dgng thu nh^ (IDI) diing dau tinh thupc viing Tiy Nguyen Lam Dong cd chi sd IDI vi EDI vio logt cao so vdi cic tinh, ndng nghifp ddng gdp han 50% tdng san pham tren dia ban (51,85%) T6ng san phim trfln dia biii tinh dgt gii trj ldn thir hai vimg, sau Dik Lik Lao dgng nong nghifp chilm 73,21% tong sd tao dgng dang hogt ddng c i c nginh kinh te C i y lua cd difn tich chilm tren 55% difln tich cay tr^ng ciia tinh Day l i ciy cd difn tich ldn tbii hai cua tinh, sau cay ca phfl Lam Ddng ciing la tinh cd dien tich cay liia chilm ti If Idn nhat tdng difn tich cay trdng sd tinh vung Tay Nguyen Chinh vi viy, chi so phgm vi cay trdng (CDI) cua tinh cao obit vung, thgm chi gip ba so vdi c i c tinh D i k Lik, Gia Lai, Kon Turn Vi vay, chi sd nhay cim ban kinh te - x i hgi cua L i m Ddng dugc xep vio muc cao Nhirng tinh cd gia tn SDI cao la nhung tinh de bi tdn thuang ban ban ban x i y so vdi nhiing tinh khie v i inh hudng cua hgn ban ddi voi sg phat trien kinh tfl tinb ciing nghiem Irgng ban Ddi voi phgm vi nghien ciru nhd (huyen, thinh phfl trgc thuflc tinb) cd the tham khio eac chi sd trfln dl dinh gii vfl miic dfl nhgy cim ciia han kinh tl - x i hfli ciia mdi khu vgc nghifln cim Phdng chdng ban kinh te TSy Nguyen xa hgi tai M^c dil hgn hin Ii mgt hien tugng khic nghifll ciia thien nhifln nhung van ed the giara nh? nhiing thift hai hgn hin giy thdng qua vifc phdng, ching hgn hin mpt cich cd hifu qua, Phdng chflng hgn kinh tl - x i hfli cua Tay Nguyen khong thi thilu cic giii phip phdng chflng ban ban ndi chung, Tai Tiy Nguyfln, trudc hit can phii sii dgng hgp 1^ tii nguyfln nudc sin xuit cung nhu Irong sinh boat Nflng nghifp l i mflt nginh kinh lfl quan trgng, ddng gdp ty trgng ldn tdng san phim tren dia b i n cic tinh ciia vimg Trong sin xuit ndng nghifp, tilt kifm nudc ein dugc thgc hifn vl c i phuang difn: quy hogch tudi tieu hgp 1;^, xiy dgng ddng rupng cd nang ling cudng giii nudc dit va tuyfln Iga dugc e i c gidng eay cd nhieu ning chiu bgn Xay dgng mdi nhitng hd chiia cd dung tieh thich bgp nhim ting cudng ddng chiy kiflt eho c i c hf Ihflng sdng Xay dgng mdi v i ning c i p cac cdng trinh tudi liflu, giinh the chii dgng tudi tiflu Ufln phin ldn difn tich canh lic ndng nghifp, vira Ii giii phip trudfc rait vira li giii phip lau dai phdng, chdng bgn bin Ngoii ra, mpl giii phip phdng chdng hgn khic cd hifu qui li trdng n ^ g v i bao vf rung t>i hgn chi tic ddng cua hgn hin kinh tl - x i hfli, cin thgc hifn mgt sd bifn phip sau: - Chuyfln ddi co cau kinh te phii bgp vdi dieu kifln tg nhifln cua Tay Nguyfln va kba nang ngufln nudc cua mdi tinli, ddng thdi phat trifln thflm cac nginh nghe phi ndng nghifp de tang din ty If lao dgng phi ndng nghiflp tgi cic linh T i y Nguyen - Nang cao chi sd pham vi c i y trdng thdng qua viflc phat trifln cac logi c i y trflng da dugc tbii nghifm cd nang chiu khd ban, lieu thu it nudc - Khuyen khich i p dung cac ky thuit v i cdng nghfl thuc day vifc diing nudc tiet kifm, su dung tuin hoin, tii su dung va giim thieu d nbiem nudc - Dinh gii, cin ddi kba nang nguon nudc thuc tfl d cic sdng sudi, hd, ngudn nudc trfi cita cic cdng trinh Ihiiy Igi va ngufln nudc ngam ciia timg dia phuang dfl chii ddng bd tri co cau sin xuit v i mua vg; quan Iy chat che ngudn nudc, chdng rd ri that thoat nudc cua cic hd chua - Du bio, du kifln difln bien ngudn nudc hang nam xet cae yflu td anb budng nhu phat Uifln kinh te - xa hpi; tinh trang kbai thic, sii dgng; kha nang suy thoai ngudn nudc v i tic dgng ciia bifln ddi kbi hgu toan cau dfl cd cic phuang in khai thac sir dung nudc hgp Iy Ket lugn Han ban la mgt hifln lugng kbic nghift ciia thifln nhifln, xay d Tay Nguyen hang nam vdi miic dp nghiem trgng khac va anh hudng tdi cac hoat dgng kinh te - xa hpi cua viing vdi quy md, miic dfl v i pham vi khac d tung tinh Dfl danh gia anh hudng ciia hgn bin doi vdi sg phat trifln kinh tl - xa hpi, chiing ta phai diing nhiflu chi sfl khac dfl thgc hifn Chinh vi vay cflng lic dinh gia thudng khd khan Trong bai bao, chiing toi Iga chpn vifc danh gii muc dfl de bj tfln thuong ciia hgn ban ddi vdi sg phat trifln kinh tc xa hgi cua vimg Tay Nguyfln dga vio cbi sd nhgy cim han kinh te - x i hfli Day li mpt phuong phap mdi Phuang phap cung cd nhiing ban che vi nd chi danh gii hgn kinh te - xa hgi cd anh hudng cbii yeu tdi ndng nghiflp Nong nghifp li nganh chiu inh hudng sau sac nhat ciia hgn han, viy ciing khdng thfl phu dinh anh hudng cua hgn han din cic nganh kinh tfl khic nhu cdng nghifp, cae nganh dich vg Bii bio chi gidi bgn pham vi nghien ciiu linh thd la virng Tay Nguyen, chinh vi vgy ngudn sd lifu chi so sanh phgm vi vimg Chi sd da dang thu nhip dugc tinh toin dga vio phin trim 385 ddng gdp ciia nginh ndng nghifp nfln kinh tfl cua rafli tinh eiia vimg Hifn nay, ndng nghiflp v i n Ii nganh cd ddng gdp rat Idn tdng san pham tren dia ban cic tinh thupc viuig T i y Nguyfln C i c cay cdng nghiflp iiu nam nhu ca phfl, che, bd tiflu, dieu cd ddng gdp ldn cho g i i tri sin xuat ciia nginh nflng nghifp Tuy vgy, ngudn sfl lieu vfl nhdra cay trdng khdng ddng bd so vdi cae tinh, phd khic nen chiing tdi chua the dua vio de tinh toin cho chi sd pham vi cay trdng (CDI) D i y cung la mot han che kbi tinb toan chi so nhay cira han kinh te - xa hdi (SDI) Trong bai bao, chiing tdi chi Iua chon ragt loai cay trflng phd bifln, cd vai trd thiflt yflu nganh ndng nghiflp la cay liia Neu cd the Iua ebon nhiing loai cay chiu anb budng true tiep va sau sac ciia han ban thi kflt qui tinh SDI sfl chinh xac han, va nflu md rgng pham vi nghien ciiu vdi nhiflu loai ciy trdng d cac tinb vimg Tay Nguyen tbi se tinb toan dugc chi so pham vi cay trdng (CDI) gin vdi thuc te ban Ldi cam an Tap thfl tac gia trin trpng cam an GS.TSKH Lfl Dire An va PGS.TS Duong Van Kham da cd nhiing nhan xet, gdp y gnip cbiing tdi hoan thifln bai bao, TAILIEUDAN [1] Nguyen Minh DUng, Nguyen Hodng Tdm, 2013: Han han va can kift ngudn nudc miia kbd nam 2012 - 2013 d Tay Nguyen B i o Dak Lak dien tit (www.baodakIak.vn) [2] Julich S., 2006: Drought Risk Indicators for assessing rural households Presentation made at Global Water Hotspots: Water-related social vulnerabilities and resilience building Summer Academy for Social Vulnerability, University of Bonn, Germany [3] Nishadi Eriyagama, Vladimir Smakhtin and Nilantha Carnage, 2009: International Water Management Institute research report: Mapping Drought Patterns and Impacts: A global Perspective, Sri Lanka [4] Cue Thdng kfl tinh D i k Ndng, 2011: Nien giim thdng ke D i k Ndng 2010, Gia NghTa [5] Cue Thdng kfl tmh D i k Lik, 2011: Nifln giim thdng kfl D i k Lik 2010, D i k Lik [6] Cgc Thdng ke tinb Gia Lai, 2011: Nifln giam thdng ke Gia Lai 2010, Pleiku [7] Cue Thdng kfl tinh Lam Ddng, 2011: Nien giam thdng ke Lara Ddng 2010, D i Lat [8] Cue Thdng ke tinh Kon Tum, 2011: Nifln giam thdng ke Kon Tum 2010, Kon Tum [9] Iseiences L.L.C, 2011: Freshwater Sustainability Analyses: Interpretive Guidelines, US [10] Tdng cyc thdng kfl, 2009: Tu lifu kinh tfl xa hfli 63 tinh, phd Viflt Nam, NXB Thflng ke H i Npi [11] Trung tam Dg bao Khi tugng thiiy van Trung uong - Trung tam Khi tugng thiiy v i n quoc gia, 2013: Phd bifln kien thiic tugng thuy van (www.ncbmf, gov vn) Assessing easy-injured characteristics of drought on socio-economic development in Central Highland by Socio-economic Drought Vulnerability index (SDI) Drought in Central Highland occurs frequently in dry season and cause serious damage to socio-economic development in this region The authors use Socio-economic drought vulnerability index (SDI) to assess impacts of drought on socio-economic development It is new assessment method We calculated three component indexes : IDI (income diversification index), EDI (employment diversification index) and CDI (crops range index) for assessment of SDI Among those, CDI was very complicated to calculate Dak Lak province had maximum agncuiture economics by IDI and SDI index and, EDI index was also quite high But Kon Tum province had minimum of SDI and the economics development was more harmonious than others Number of agriculture labours for all provinces of thie region mads up over 70% total labour On the based of study, we also proposed some solutions for drought reduction and prevention in Central Highland region ... tinh de bi ton thuong cua hgn hin vdi sg* phit trien kinh te - xa hgi Tay Nguyfln thong qua chi so nhay cam ban kinh te - xi hgi Hifln hgn kinh tfl - xa hgi cd thfl dugc phin c^p eac miic dg khac... nhit (IDI = 54,23) Co cau kinh te tgi Kon Tura can dii ban so vdi cic tmh cdn lai cua vimg Nganh ndng nghiflp ddng vai trd quan trgng nfln kinh tfl tinh, nhung nen kinh te tinh khdng phg thupc... nguy ca hgn kinh te - xa hdi cing giim hgn kbi tugng xiy Muc dg quan trgng cua sg da dgng cay trdng ciia mgt qudc gta phg thudc vio kha ning ddng gdp cua ndng nghiflp ddi vdi nen kinh te qudc