35(4), 381 386 Tap chi CAC KHOA HOC V£ TRAI DAJ N/DANH GIA TINH DE BI TON THLTONG DO HAN HAN DOI V6l SlT PHAT TRIEN KINH TE XA HOI TAY NGUYEN THONG QUA CHi SO NHAY CAM HAN KINH TE XA HOI LE VAN HU''''ONG[.]
Trang 1N/DANH GIA TINH DE BI TON THLTONG
DO HAN HAN DOI V6l SlT PHAT TRIEN
KINH T E - XA HOI TAY NGUYEN THONG QUA CHi SO NHAY CAM HAN KINH TE - XA HOI
LE VAN HU'ONG, PHI THI THU HOANG E-mail: huong_ig@yahoo.com
Viin Dia ly Viin Hdn Idm Khoa hgc vd Cong nghi Viet Nam
N g i y nhan bai: 1 0 - 9 - 2 0 1 3
l M d d a u
Han la hien tugng thdi tiet kbd khdng binh
thudng d mgt khu vgc do trong mflt thdi gian dai
khflng cd mua hay mua khdng dang ke, Theo
logi hgn han la ban khi tugng, han nflng nghiep,
hgn thuy van va ban kinh t l - xa hfli, trong dd han
din nhu cau cung cap nudc phyc vy phat trien kinh
t l - x a h f l i [ l l ]
Hgn ban khi x i y ra m i cd anb hudng den nhu
c^u cung c^p nudc phyc vg phat trien kinh le - x i
hfli, dugc ggi la ban kinh tfl xa hpi Hgn kinh te
-x i hfli cd thfl -xay ra ngay ca khi khdng cd ban khi
tugng thiiy v i n do nhu cau nudc cua cae nginh
kinh t l x i hgi tang cao Nd dac trung hda hgn hin
ddi vdi cic ngudn, dilm sii dgng nudc ldn
Hifln nay eae nha chuyfln mdn thudng dya vao
cic chi s6 hgn khi tugng, ban thiiy van dfl danh gii
inh hudng ciia hgn hin ddi vdi sy phat trifln kinh te
- x i hfli 6 Viet Nam phuang phap danh gia tinh dfl
bi tfln thuang (Vulnerability) cua ban ban ddi vdi
khi mdi me
Trong bii b i o n i y chiing tdi gidi tbiflumflt so
kit qui budc diu ciia viflc d i n h g i i tinh de bi ton
thuong ciia hgn hin ddi vdi sg phat trien kinh tfl
-x i hfli Ihdng qua chi sfl nhgy cam bgn kinh tfl - -xa
hOi (SDI - Socio-economic drought vulnerability
index) de rtr dd kiln nghj cie giii p h i p phdng ngira
v i hgn chi lic ddng ciia hgn kinh te - xa hfli tai
2 Tong quan dieu ki^n t y nhien v i tinh hinh
ban h i n if Tay Nguyfln
Tiy Nguyen gflm 5 tinh: Kon Tum, Gia Lai,
D i k Lak, Dak Ndng va Lam Ddng, dien tich tg nhien 54.474km^, chiem 16,8% dien tich ca nudc, dan sd dfln cudi nam 2010 li 5.215.877 ngudi, la mflt trong bay vimg kinh te - sinb thai ciia nude ta bien nay,
Tay Nguyfln l i vimg cd diflu kifln dja hinh, dit dai, khi hgu kha da dang Dp cao trung binh ciia viing khoang 600-800m nhung cd nhieu day niii triing diflp v i cao ban 2.000m, Khi hau nhiflt ddi gid miia cao nguyen l i chii yeu v i chia Ihinh 2 miia ro rflt: miia khd v i mua mua Miia mua tai Tay Nguyen thira ara, hay xay ra lii lyt, ngap iing, trong khi dd miia khd thi thieu i m nghiem trpng
Tay Nguyen cd rapt mang ludi sdng ngdi diy dac, nhiflu ghlnh thic Bfln hfl thflng sdng chinh tai day gdm co: sdng Pfl K6 Se San, sdng Ba -Ayun, sdng Srepook v i sdng Dong Nai vdi trii lugng thiiy nang ldn, chiflm khoang 22% nguon thuy nang ciia ca nudc Hifln nay, ngudn nudc sinh
dio bogc giflng khoan cd bam, cac ngudn nudc khac chiflm ty lfl nhd Nguon nudc sii dyng trong
ao hd d l tudi liia va diing trong chan nudi (cbiflm bon 70% trong ca ciu ngudn nudc tudi lua) Nhin chung, tgi 5 tinh thuflc T i y Nguyfln, ngudi dan cd dii nudc d l phgc vy sinb boat, nhung trong sin xuil thudng xiy ra thieu nudc, d?ic biflt vao
Trang 2suy giim, khi nang tai sinh rit khd khan Day ciing
la mgt trong nhimg nguyen nhan din dfln dien bien
bat Ihudng cua khi hau Tay Nguyfln Tay Nguyen
difln ticb ldn nbat ci nudc, tao diflu kifln cho viec
trdng cac cay cdng nghiep chuyfln canh vdi difln
tich ldn Hifln nay, Tiy Nguyfln la viing dit da dan
vdi rit nhieu dac trung, sac thii ciia nhiflu tdc
ngudi, nhieu dia phuong trong ca nudc hgi tụ
Nhiing nim gan day, khi bau Tiy Nguyfln dien
bifln that Ihudng, miia mua ket thiic sdm, lugng
mua giam va thudng xuyen xiy ra tinh trang kho
cao khic nhau tgo ra nhiflu tieu vimg khi baụ Dieu
niy khien cho tinb binh ban bin d Tiy Nguyen
trong 5 nara trd lai diỵ Miia khd bgn d Tiy
Nguyfln keo dai khoang 6 thing, tir thing 11 nara
miia kho d Tiy Nguyen bat diu sdm bon so vdi
quy luat (phd bien vao tuan giira thing 10) Trong
3 thing cudi nara (thing 10, 11 vi 12) hiu bet cic
tinh Tay Nguyfln khdng mua hoac mua vdi lugng
khdng dang ke (phd bien thieu hut tir 40 - 60% so
vdi trung binh nhieu nam cimg ky), ket bgp thing 1
vi 2-2013 nhiflu noi khdng mua nfln hgn han di
xay ra tren khap dia ban cac tinh Tay Nguyen Miia
khd nam 2012 - 2013 can kiflt xiy ra khi nghiflm
trgng, đng chay trfln mflt sd sflng sufli d mirc rat
chiy thieu hgt 60 - 70%> Qua sd liflu quan trie
tinh Dak Lak, sau do dfln hai linh Gia Lai vi Kon
Tum; tinh Lara Ddng va Dak Nflng theo cac cbi
tieu thi d miic bat dau xiy ra can kiflt [1]
Nhu vgy, Tay Nguyen ed nhiflu Igi thfl va ciing
khdng it khd khan Irong phit trifln kinh te - xa bgị
Nhung dgc diflm ty nhien va xa hfli ndi trfln ciia
tdn thuong va nhay cim ciia ban kinh tfl - xa hgị
3 Dinh gia tinh de bi ton thuong cua hgn hin
vdi sg* phit trien kinh te - xa hgi Tay Nguyfln
thong qua chi so nhay cam ban kinh te - xi hgi
Hifln nay hgn kinh tfl - xa hgi cd thfl dugc phin
c^p thanh eac miic dg khac nhau nhu: Tuong đi
am; Gan diflu kifln binh Ihudng; Han nh?; Han
trung binh; Han nang; Hgn nghiem trgng; Han rit
nghiem trgng [9]
đi vdi sg phat trifln kinh te - xa hdi Tay Nguyen, chiing tdi sii dgng cbi sd nhgy cim hgn kinh tfl - xi hdị Chi sd nhay cim ban kinh tl M hgi (SDI) xic dinh muc dg nhgy cam cda mdi qudc gia hoac viing đi vdi ban kinh tfl xa hgị Chi sd nay dugc tinh loan dua tren xem xet đng gdp GDP tur cac Unh vuc phi ndng nghiflp, ty lfl lao dgng ndng nghidp vi
da dgng cay trdng Neu mgt qudc gia cd tý 1^ đng gdp GDP CU3 cac nginh phi ndng nghidp cao, t;^ lfl lao dgng ndng nghidp thip vi da dang cay trdng cao thi nguy ca hgn kinh te - xa hdi cing giim khi
dgng cay trdng ciia mgt qudc gta phg thudc vio kha ning đng gdp cua ndng nghiflp đi vdi nen kinh te qudc gia đ Gia tri SDI nim trong khoang tir 0 den
100 vdi 100 thi hifln mirc đ nhgy cam ldn nhit [3] SDI dugc tinh theo cdng thirc nhu sau: SDI = 0,4.IDI + 0,4.EDI -I- 0,2.CDL Trong do:
_ Ậactual - Ậ mJn Ậma]ị - Ậ min Êactual-Ê min
£„max - £„ min 100
^ P ^ ^ C , a c m a / - C , min ^ ^ ^ ^^ ^ ^ ^ , C,max-C, min ' Trong do:
IDI: chi sd da dgng thu nh|p
EDI: cbi so da dang viflc Iim
CDI: chi sd pham vi ciy trflng [2], Av: Phan trim đng gdp ciia ndng nghiflp cho GDP qudc giạ
Ea: Phan trim lao dgng ndng nghiflp trfln long
sd lao đng
Ci: Chi sd da dang ciy trong
P: Ty sd dign tich 1 logi ciy trdng trfln ting sd difln tich ciy trdng Gia tri Ci cing nhd thi miic dg
da dang ciy trdng cang caọ
Ap dgng cdng thiic tren tinh chi sd nhay cam ban kinh tfl - xi hgi cho 5 tinh viing Tay Nguyfln, chung ldi Iga chgn nguon so li^u tinh toin tir tu liflu kinh tl - xi hgi 63 tinh, thinh pho Vi^t Nam,
Trang 3dugc su dgng Ii sd liflu nam 2007, cd sg ddng nhit
ve cic sd Uflu tinh toin de viflc dinh gii hgn kinh tfl
riflng biflt dugc tinh toin sd liflu so sinh trfln pham
vi moi tmh Ngoii sd lieu tinh toin cho viing TSy
Nguyen, nhdm tic gii cdn tinh toin cho tat ca cic
nho nbat ciia moi chi sd trong cac cflng thiic tinh
Do pham vi sd Uflu cdn hgn chfl, nhdm tic gii
lya chgn eay liia la cay trdng chinh dl tinh toin chi
sd phgm vi ciy trong (CDI) Difln tich cay trlng
trong bii bio gdm cd dien tich ciy luong thgc cd
hgt (liia, ngfl), difln tich gieo trdng cic cay chit bflt
cd Cli (khoai lang, sin) vi difln tich mgt sfl ciy
edng nghiep hang nam (mia, lac)
Cac sd li^u cua cac tinb, thanh phd gflm cd:
- Tflng sin pham trfln dia bin theo gia thgc te
(ty dflng)
- Ddng gdp ciia nginh ndng nghiep trong tdng
sin pham tren dia bin theo gii thgc te (ty ddng)
BAng 1 K^t qui tinh toan chi so da dgng
- Tdng sd lao dgng (ngudi)
- Dien tich cay Iiia (ba)
- Dien tich ciy trong (ha)
Ket qua tinh loan d tren cho thay 5 tinh Tay Nguyen deu cd ty lfl lao dgng nflng nghiep tuong duong nhau va chiflm ty 1^ Idn trong long sd Iao dflng dang boat dgng trong cic nginh kinh te nen cbi sd da dang viflc lam (EDI) cua cac linh cd su
chenh lech khdng Idn (bdng 2) EDI tai Dik Ndng
cd gii Iri Idn nhat (92,39), thip nhit tai Gia Lai (83,36) Trong khi dd, chi sd da dgng thu nhip (IDI)
vi cbi sd phgm vi cay trdng cd su phan biflt rfl ret
giua cac tinb (bang I) Gia tii cao nhit ciia IDI
Kon Tum Muc cbenb lech vfl chi sfl IDI giiia tinh
cao nhat va thip nhat kha ldn Bdng 3 cho thay chi
so ptigm vi cay trdng (CDI) ed su dflng deu tgi 3 tinh Kon Tum, Gia Lai, Dik Lik, thap nhat thuflc vl linh Dik Ndng - nai cd difln tich liia nhd nhat trong vimg, cao nhit thupc ve Lim Ddng
t h u nhgp (IDI) cua 5 tinh v i i n g T3y Nguyen Tdng sdn phdm (GOP) trgn
dja bdn (ty ddng)
Kon Tum
GiaLal
Bik Ldk
Dlk Nfing
6.314.4
15,306,3 10,240,9
12 546,1
2 117,5 4,421.3
9 187,6 5694.4
33,53 60,02 51,85
60.72
(Binh PtMiiic)
s a n g 2 K4t q u i t t n h t o i n c h i s6 fla dang vigc lam (EDI) cua 5 tinh v u n g T i y Nguyen
SA lao ddng nOng nghidp (ngirfri)
Tdng sd lao dfing (r>girfi^}
Kon Tum
Gia Lai
B6k Nfing
143 900 573.300
464100
199 000
550 600 776.700
210 600 633.900
72,31 73.81 73,21 85.64 (ScTnLa) 0.45 (Hd Nfii)
B i n g 3 Ket quk t i n h t o i n c h i sA phgm vi cay trAng (CDI) c u a 5 t i n h v u n g l a y Nguyen
TT Tfintlnh DIQn llchcaylOa (ha) Dl^r< lich cfly Irdng ( h ~
Kon Tum
Gia Lai
Blk Ldk
Dlk Nfing
Lflm Ddng
23,300
67,500
70,200
11.400
32 60O
71000 0.328 0,108 199,100 0.339 0,115
229 400 0,306 0,094 76.100 0.150 0,022
59 200 0.551 0.303
0,991 (Cin Tho)
0,022 (Dlk Lik)
Trang 4kinh tl - xa hdi (SDI) cho cic tuih Tay Nguyfln,
chiing tdi cd dugc kit qui nhu sau (bdng 4)
B i n g 4 Bang tdng hgp tinh toan chi sd nhgy cam
hgn kinh t e - x a hfli
TT Ten tinh IDI EDI CDI SDI
Kon Tum 54.23 84.16 8,84 57,12
Gia Lai 76,24 83,36 9,59 65,72
OdkLik 98,82 85,91 7,39 75.37
DikNOng 91,39 92.39 0.05 73.52
L3m
Nguon: Tinh to^n t u ckc so Ii0u thong ke thu thgp
Tai khu vuc nghien cuu, hogt dgng sin xuit
nong nghiflp ddng gdp ldn vao ngudn thu nhip
chinh Sd Iao dgng boat ddng sin xuit ndng nghiep
li ciy Iuong thgc quan trgng ciia viing nhung
nhiing cay mang Igi gii tri kinh tfl cao Iai la cic cay
rgng ldn, miic dfl tir ban nang den nghiflm trpng
ban kinh tfl xa hfli ciia khu vuc nghien cim khi eao
Theo kflt qua tinh toin ndi trfln, Dik Lik la tinh
cd ehi sd nhay cim han kinh te - xi hgi ldn nhit
cam cing cao Cd the phan thanh 3 nhdm vfl mirc
thap tdi cao, Nhdm 1 gdra Kon Tum (SDI =
57,12), nbdra 2 gflm Gia Lai (SDI = 65,72), nhdm
3 gdm 3 tinh cdn lgi (SDI hi 73 din 75)
Trong 5 tinb tai Tay Nguyfln, Kon Tum la tinb
cd nganh ndng nghiflp ddng gdp thip nhit cho tdng
sin pham tren dja ban, chiflm 33,53% Cbi sd da
dang thu nhip ciing dat gia tri thip nhit (IDI =
54,23) Co cau kinh te tgi Kon Tura can dii ban so
vdi cic tmh cdn lai cua vimg Nganh ndng nghiflp
ddng vai trd quan trgng trong nfln kinh tfl tinh,
nhung nen kinh te tinh khdng phg thupc ngng nl
vio nginh ndng nghiflp nhu mflt sd tinh khac Tuy
chiflm ti If rat tdn trong tflng sd lao ddng boat dpng
ciia cae nganh kinh tfl (72,31%) Ciy liia gifi radt
vai trd thiet yflu trong ca cau cay trong Igi Kon
Tura, nhung khdng phai la cay trong dpc canb ciia
linh (P = 0,328) Kon Tum edn cd nhieu loai cay
cdng nghiflp hing nim va lau nam va cd ddng gdp
niy Cling tuang tg vdi cic tinh Gia Lai, Dak Lik
ban kinh tfl - xi hgi thugc loai trung binh (SDI = 57,12), chu ylu do chi sd da dgng viflc Iam (EDI) cao, nhung vin thip nhit so vdi cic tinh cdn lgi
Trudng hgp ciia Gia Lai ciing tuong tu nhu vdi Kon Tum Gia Lai cd ty trgng nginh ndng nghiep trong ca cau tdng sin pham tren dja ban eao ban Kon Tum nhung thap ban so vdi cac tinh cdn lgi, chi sd da dang vifc lam (EDI) va phgm vi cay
viy, chi so nhgy cam hgn kinh te - xa hgt ctia Gia Lai cao hon Kon Tum vi thap hon 3 tinh cdn lgi
Qua sd li^u thing kfl, cd thfl thiy nflng nghiflp ddng vai trd cbii dgo trong co cau kinh te Dak Lak (khoing trfln 60% tdng sin pham trfln dia bin) Ty trgng nganh ndng nghifp trong co ciu tdng sin phim cua Dak Lik cao thii 2 ci nudc (chi sau Btnh Phudc) Trong khi dd ndng nghifp li nginh phg thugc vio dieu kifn tg nhifln va chiu anh hudng rit nghiem trgng tir ban hin Mat khac, tdng sin pham trfln dia ban cua Dik Lik vao loai cao nhit trong
nfln kinh tfl tinh vio nginh ndng nghiep Neu nginh ndng nghifp chiu thiet bgi n^ng nfl ciia hgn
pham tren dia ban tinh Nfln kinh tl tinh trong tuih trang dd kbd cd the phit trifln mdt cich bfln vfing
va fln dinh
Dik Ndng ciing la tinh cd nfln kinh tl ndn^ nghiflp vdi sd Iao ddng ndng nghifp chiflm ti If rat cao trong tdng sd lao dflng Ddng gdp ciia nginh
tuang ddi cao, dgt 50,60% Nlu chi tinh hai cbi sd nay Dik Ndng khdng hon Dik Lik Tuy nhien, tinh cd difn tich cay liia vio log! thip nhit trong 5 tinh ciia viing Tiy Nguyen Tbeo kflt qua tinh toin, difn tieh eay liia d Dik Ndng chi chiera 15% tdn^
nhgy cim hgn kinh tl - xa hgi (SDI), hing sd gin vdi chi sd pham vi cay trdng (CDI) thip hon so vdi hai chi sd cdn lai (0,2 so vdi 0,4) nfln SDI cua Dik
Ndng tuy cao nhimg van cd gii tx\ thip han so vdi Dik Lik vi ci ba chi sd (IDI, EDI, CDI) ciia Dik
Lik deu cao, die biflt chi sd da dgng thu n h ^ (IDI) diing dau trong 5 tinh thupc viing Tiy Nguyen
Lam Dong cd chi sd IDI vi EDI vio logt cao
so vdi cic tinh, do ndng nghifp ddng gdp han 50% tdng san pham tren dia ban (51,85%) T6ng san phim trfln dia biii tinh dgt gii trj ldn thir hai trong
Trang 5trong c i c nginh kinh te C i y lua cd difn tich chilm
tren 55% difln tich cay tr^ng ciia tinh Day l i ciy
trong cd difn tich ldn tbii hai cua tinh, sau cay ca
phfl Lam Ddng ciing la tinh cd dien tich cay liia
chilm ti If Idn nhat trong tdng difn tich cay trdng
trong sd 5 tinh vung Tay Nguyen Chinh vi viy, chi
so phgm vi cay trdng (CDI) cua tinh cao obit trong
vung, thgm chi g i p ba so vdi c i c tinh D i k Lik, Gia
Lai, Kon Turn Vi vay, chi sd nhay c i m ban kinh te
- x i hgi cua L i m Ddng dugc xep v i o muc cao
Nhirng tinh cd gia t n SDI cao la nhung tinh de
bi tdn thuang ban khi ban ban x i y ra so vdi nhiing
tinh khie v i inh hudng cua hgn ban ddi voi sg phat
trien kinh tfl tinb ciing nghiem Irgng ban
Ddi voi phgm vi nghien ciru nhd (huyen, thinh
phfl trgc thuflc tinb) cd the tham khio eac chi sd
trfln d l dinh gii vfl miic dfl nhgy c i m ciia han kinh
tl - x i hfli ciia mdi khu vgc nghifln cim
4 Phdng chdng b a n kinh te xa hgi tai
TSy Nguyen
M^c dil hgn hin Ii mgt hien tugng khic nghifll
ciia thien nhifln nhung van ed the giara nh? nhiing
thift hai do hgn hin giy ra thdng qua vifc phdng,
ching hgn hin mpt cich cd hifu qua, Phdng chflng
hgn kinh t l - x i hfli cua Tay Nguyen khong
thi thilu cic giii phip phdng chflng ban ban
ndi chung,
Tai Tiy Nguyfln, trudc hit can phii sii dgng
hgp 1^ tii nguyfln nudc trong sin xuit cung nhu
Irong sinh boat Nflng nghifp l i mflt nginh kinh lfl
quan trgng, ddng gdp ty trgng ldn trong tdng san
phim tren dia b i n cic tinh ciia vimg Trong sin
xuit ndng nghifp, tilt kifm nudc ein dugc thgc
hifn v l c i 3 phuang difn: quy hogch tudi tieu hgp
1;^, xiy dgng ddng rupng cd k h i nang ling cudng
giii nudc trong dit va tuyfln Iga dugc e i c gidng eay
trong cd nhieu k h i ning chiu bgn Xay dgng mdi
nhitng hd chiia cd dung tieh thich bgp nhim ting
cudng ddng chiy kiflt eho c i c hf Ihflng sdng Xay
dgng mdi v i ning c i p cac cdng trinh tudi liflu,
giinh the chii dgng tudi tiflu Ufln phin ldn difn tich
canh lic ndng nghifp, vira Ii giii p h i p trudfc rait
vira l i giii p h i p lau dai phdng, chdng bgn bin
Ngoii ra, mpl giii p h i p phdng chdng hgn khic cd
hifu qui l i trdng n ^ g v i bao vf rung
t>i hgn chi tic ddng cua hgn hin kinh t l - x i
hfli, cin thgc hifn mgt sd bifn p h i p sau:
kifln tg nhifln cua Tay Nguyfln va kba nang ngufln nudc cua mdi tinli, ddng thdi phat trifln thflm cac
dgng phi ndng nghiflp tgi cic linh T i y Nguyen
- Nang cao chi sd pham vi c i y trdng thdng qua viflc phat trifln cac logi c i y trflng da dugc tbii nghifm cd k h i nang chiu khd ban, lieu thu it nudc
- Khuyen khich i p dung cac ky thuit v i cdng nghfl thuc day vifc diing nudc tiet kifm, su dung tuin hoin, tii su dung va g i i m thieu d nbiem nudc
- Dinh gii, cin ddi kba nang nguon nudc thuc tfl d cic sdng sudi, hd, ngudn nudc trfi cita cic
dia phuang dfl chii ddng bd tri co cau sin xuit v i mua vg; quan Iy chat che ngudn nudc, chdng rd ri that thoat nudc cua cic hd chua
- Du bio, du kifln difln bien ngudn nudc hang nam khi xet cae yflu td anb budng nhu phat Uifln kinh te - xa hpi; tinh trang kbai thic, sii dgng; kha nang suy thoai ngudn nudc v i tic dgng ciia bifln ddi kbi hgu toan cau dfl cd cic phuang i n khai thac sir dung nudc hgp Iy
5 Ket lugn Han ban la mgt hifln lugng kbic nghift ciia thifln nhifln, xay ra d Tay Nguyen hang nam vdi miic dp nghiem trgng khac nhau va anh hudng tdi cac hoat dgng kinh te - xa hpi cua viing vdi quy
danh gia anh hudng ciia hgn bin doi vdi sg phat
sfl khac nhau dfl thgc hifn Chinh vi vay cflng lic dinh gia thudng khi khd khan Trong bai bao, chiing toi Iga chpn vifc danh gii muc dfl de bj tfln thuong ciia hgn ban ddi vdi sg phat trifln kinh tc
-xa hgi cua vimg Tay Nguyfln dga vio cbi sd nhgy cim han kinh te - x i hfli Day l i mpt phuong phap mdi Phuang phap nay cung cd nhiing ban che vi
cbii yeu tdi ndng nghiflp Nong nghifp li nganh chiu inh hudng sau sac nhat ciia hgn han, tuy viy
din cic nganh kinh tfl khic nhu cdng nghifp, cae nganh dich vg
Bii b i o chi gidi bgn pham vi nghien ciiu linh thd la virng Tay Nguyen, chinh vi vgy ngudn sd
dang thu nhip dugc tinh toin dga vio phin trim
Trang 6cua rafli tinh eiia vimg
Hifn nay, ndng nghiflp v i n Ii nganh cd ddng
gdp rat Idn trong tdng san pham tren dia ban cic
tinh thupc viuig T i y Nguyfln C i c cay cdng nghiflp
iiu nam nhu ca phfl, che, bd tiflu, dieu cd ddng gdp
ldn cho g i i tri s i n xuat ciia nginh nflng nghifp
Tuy vgy, do ngudn sfl lieu vfl nhdra cay trdng nay
khdng ddng bd so vdi cae tinh, thanh phd k h i c nen
chiing tdi chua the dua v i o de tinh toin cho chi sd
pham vi cay trdng (CDI) D i y cung la mot han che
kbi tinb toan chi so nhay cira han kinh te - xa hdi
(SDI)
Trong bai bao, chiing tdi chi Iua chon ragt loai
cay trflng phd bifln, cd vai trd thiflt yflu trong nganh
ndng nghiflp la cay liia Neu cd the Iua ebon nhiing
ciia han ban thi kflt q u i tinh SDI sfl chinh xac han,
va nflu md rgng pham vi nghien ciiu vdi nhiflu loai
toan dugc chi so pham vi cay trdng (CDI) gin vdi
thuc te ban
Ldi cam an Tap thfl tac gia trin trpng cam an
GS.TSKH Lfl Dire An va PGS.TS Duong Van
Kham da cd nhiing nhan xet, gdp y gnip cbiing tdi
hoan thifln bai bao,
TAILIEUDAN
[1] Nguyen Minh DUng, Nguyen Hodng Tdm,
2013: Han han va can kift ngudn nudc trong miia
kbd nam 2012 - 2013 d Tay Nguyen B i o Dak Lak
dien tit (www.baodakIak.vn)
assessing rural households Presentation made at Global Water Hotspots: Water-related social vulnerabilities and resilience building Summer Academy for Social Vulnerability, University of Bonn, Germany
[3] Nishadi Eriyagama, Vladimir Smakhtin and Nilantha Carnage, 2009: International Water
Management Institute research report: Mapping Drought Patterns and Impacts: A global Perspective, Sri Lanka
[4] Cue Thdng kfl tinh D i k Ndng, 2011: Nien giim thdng ke D i k Ndng 2010, Gia NghTa [5] Cue Thdng kfl tmh D i k L i k , 2011: Nifln
g i i m thdng kfl D i k L i k 2010, D i k Lik [6] Cgc Thdng ke tinb Gia Lai, 2011: Nifln giam thdng ke Gia Lai 2010, Pleiku
[7] Cue Thdng kfl tinh Lam Ddng, 2011: Nien giam thdng ke Lara Ddng 2010, D i Lat [8] Cue Thdng ke tinh Kon Tum, 2011: Nifln giam thdng ke Kon Tum 2010, Kon Tum [9] Iseiences L.L.C, 2011: Freshwater Sustainability Analyses: Interpretive Guidelines, US [10] Tdng cyc thdng kfl, 2009: T u lifu kinh tfl
-xa hfli 63 tinh, thanh phd Viflt Nam, NXB Thflng
ke H i Npi
[11] Trung tam D g bao Khi tugng thiiy van Trung uong - Trung tam Khi tugng thiiy v i n quoc gia, 2013: Phd bifln kien thiic khi tugng thuy van (www.ncbmf, gov vn)
Assessing easy-injured characteristics of drought on socio-economic development in Central Highland by
Socio-economic Drought Vulnerability index (SDI)
Drought in Central Highland occurs frequently in dry season and cause serious damage to socio-economic development in this region The authors use Socio-economic drought vulnerability index (SDI) to assess impacts of drought on socio-economic development It is new assessment method We calculated three component indexes : IDI (income diversification index), EDI (employment diversification index) and CDI (crops range index) for assessment of SDI Among those, CDI was very complicated to calculate Dak Lak province had maximum agncuiture economics by IDI and SDI index and, EDI index was also quite high But Kon Tum province had minimum of SDI and the economics development was more harmonious than others Number of agriculture labours for all provinces of thie region mads up over 70% total labour On the based of study, we also proposed some solutions for drought reduction and prevention in