Kinh nghiệm từ mô hình quỹ ứng phó với biens đổi khí hậu ở Bangladesh.pdf

Nghien ciiu An Do va Chau A So - 2015 J KINH NGHIEM TlTMO HINH QUY I T N G PHO v o l BIEN DOI KHI HAU BANGLADESH (BCCRF) Nguyin Thi Kim Chi* Bui Thi Bich Thao** T^angladesh dugc biet den Id mdt quoc gia ngheo a khu vuc Nam A Dugc ddnh J^ gid Id nu&c chiu tdc dgng mgnh tie Men doi hdu Nhdn thdy dugc hodn cdnh cua ddt nu&c, cdc nhd hogch dinh chinh sdch cda Bangladesh dd hit sue no luc de xdy dung quy ddi v&i biin ddi hgu (BCCRF) Quy ndy d&i v&i muc dich ho trg nguai ddn ung v&i thien tai, quy dd thdnh cdng v&i muc dich hogt dgng dd dgt cua mink Nhin nhdn su thdnh cong cua BCCRF, bdi viet dd riit nhung kinh nghiem thdnh lap quy tucmg tu cho Viet Nam TlT khda: biln ddi hau, Bangladesh, quy ung phd vdi biln ddi hau Bangladesh vd bien doi khf hau 1.1 Gi&i thieu chung ve Bangladesh Bangladesh (Nudc Cgng hda Nhan ddn Bangladesh) la qudc gia tie nhdt Nam A, dugc lap vao nam 1971 va co dien tich la 143.998 km^ vdi dan sd khoang 170 tiieu ngudi Day la mgt qudc gia cd hau • PGS.TS., Dai hpc Kinh xi, Bai hoc Qu6c gia H^Noi •* Hpc vien Chinh tri Quoc gia H6 Chi Minh nhiet ddi gid mua, quanh nam ndng va am, mua he nhiet trung binh tir 24-39''C, mua ddng nhiet tir 18-23°C Tieng Bengali la qudc ngii ciia ngudi Bangladesh, vdi khoang 95% dan so sir dung, dong thai tieng Anh ciing dugc sir dung rgng rai Ve tdn giao, dan sd theo dao Hdi chiem tdi 89,5%, dao Hindu chiem 9,6%, cdn cac tdn gido khac chiem 0,9% 21 Nguyen Thi Kim Chi, Bui Thi Bich Thao Kinh nghiem tu mo Mnh vh chinh tri, Bangladesh la quoc gia theo ch6 dan chii nghi vien, diing dau Nha niroc la T6ng th6ng - Quoc hgi bau vcri nhiem ky 05 nam - nhung chii yeu chi mang tinh nghi thiic Qu6c hoi la co quan lap phap tdi cao duoc bau true tiep thong qua Tong tuyen cii vdi nhiem ky 05 nam Chinh phii la co quan hanh phap cao nhit vh kinh th, tir 1996, kinh te Bangladesh tang trudng 5,8%/nam b& chip nen chinh tri khong on dinh, tang co so yeu kem, tham nhung va viec cai each kinh th cham chap Mac dii vay, Bangladesh vln la mgt nuoc ngheo, quan Iy nha nudc yeu kem Mdt sd lmh vuc ndi bat nhu dich vu, ddng gdp toi 14 gia tri, 45% dan sd Bangladesh van sdng nhd vao lam ndng nghiep ma san pham chinh la cay liia Det may la nganh xuat khau chu yeu, dat 12,3 ty USD nam 2009 va tien gui ve tir ngudn lao ddng xuat khau dat II ty USD nam 2010, chiSm 12% tdng GDPV dai, thidu mua nhu hien tai thi san lugng ndng pham cua Bangladesh cd the bj sut giam tdi 50% vao nam 2020 va se dan din tinh trang thidu lucmg thuc trim trgng Theo mdt bao cao nam 2003 cua OECD thi bidn ddi hau cd the tac dgng tdi 50% cac hoat ddng phat trien cua Bangladesh Cdn theo udc tinh cua Ngan hang Thd gidi (WB) thi anh hudng ciia bi6n ddi hau ddn ndng nghiep d Bangladesh cd thd trung binh khoang 2,9-5,1 ty USD moi nam giai doan 2005-2050, va cac hd gia dinh se phai true tiep ganh chju phan ldn hau qua Them vao dd, tdn that mdt bao nghiem trgng trung binh se len tdi tren ty USD vao nam 2050 Nhiing khd khan trd nen cap bach hon ca Bangladesh dang roi vao tinh trang vo cimg khd khan, nhihig tdn that tham hoa tu nhien gay chiem tdi 0,5-1% GDP trung binh mdi nam Trong vdng 30 nam qua, Bangladesh cd khoang 191.637 nguoi da bi chet tham hga thien nhien, 1.2 Bien doi hdu & Bangladesh dd sd ngudi chdt bao len tdi 167.178 Bangladesh dugc danh gia la mdt ngudi (Theo bao cao ciia Maplecroft) Gin nhiing nudc se phai chiu sir tac dgng ldn ti ngudi da bi anh hudng bdi tham hoa nhat ve bien ddi hau 80% dien tich ciia thien nhidn thap ky cudi cua thi ky Bangladesh la nhtmg viing dat dh ngap iing, XX, 86% la bi anh hudng bdi lu va ban cimg vdi bd bien keo dai, Bangladesh cd han (WFP - Chuong trinh luong thuc thj the mat tdi 15% tdng dien tich dat nudc gidi) Va cdn rat nhieu sd thiet hai muc nudc bidn tang them Im Didu niy bien ddi hau gay da dugc thdng ke tuong ung vdi viec 30 trieu ngudi Bangladesh se mat noi sinh sdng cua minh QuSi ihig phd vdi bien doi hau Them vao dd, vdi tinh trang han han keo cua Bangladesh (BCCRF) 2.1 Qud trinh hinh Ihanh BCCRF ' Ban Quan Ii5 Qu6c le (2013), HS sa Ihl trmtig Bangladesti, tr.2, lillD://imB.vcci.com.vn/lniages/llplnaried/Share/Mli; 02Q5/HSTT-Baneladesh-Jan201.1 pdf 22 Nguon: hItD://www.liccrf-bd.ore/ Nghien ciiu An Do vd Chau A Sd - 2015 Nhdn thdy dugc sy tdn that ldn ciia Bangladesh bien ddi hau gay ra, cac nhd hoach chinh sdch Bangladesh da het siic quan tam ve van de Nam 2008, Bangladesh xay dung Ke hoach hanh dgng vd chien luge bien ddi hau cho giai do^n 10 nam (BCCSAP)^ nham giai quyet nhiing thach thiic bien ddi hdu d Bangladesh BCCSAP nhan nii ro ma bien ddi hau dnh hudng tdi sy phdt trien cua qudc gia ciing nhu tam quan trgng ciia hoat dgng phat Irien iing phd vdi bien doi hau de lam giam nhiing tdn thuong bien ddi hau gay De giai quyet nhirng tdn thuang bien ddi hau va bat dau thyc hien chien luge ciia BCCSAP, Chinh phii Bangladesh va cac ddi tac phdt trien da lap hai qu)' bien ddi hau cua qudc gia: Qu5' uy thac biln ddi hau (BCCTF) Chinh phli Bangladesh cung cap kinh phi va Quy ling phd vdi bien ddi hau (BCCRF) sy ddng gdp ciia mgt sd nhd tai trg qudc te Cac ngudn tai chinh khac dugc cung cap qua Chuong trinh Chien luge iing phd vdi biln ddi hdu (SPCR)^ Quy ling phd vdi bien ddi hau (BCCRF) dugc tiianh lap thang 05 ndm 2010 vdi viec ky ket Bien ban ghi nhd (MOU - Memorandum of Understanding) giiia Chinh phvi Bangladesh, cac ddi lac phat tiien vd Ngdn hang the gidi Co che ndy cho phep Chinh phu Bangladesh ^ BCCSAP: Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan - Ke ho^ch hanh dpng va chi^n lupng bien doi h§u cua Bangladesh * Strategic Program for Climate Resilience (SPCR) chuyen 188,2 tiieu USD dudi dang trg cdp cho hang trieu ngudi ddn Bangladesh de ling phd vdi hau qua ciia bien ddi hau Cac ddi tac phat tiien ddng gdp cho quy gdm Dan Mach (1,8 tiieu USD), Lien minh chau Au (37,6 tiieu USD), Thyy Diln (19,3 trieu USD), Anh (96,9 tiieu USD), Thuy ST (12,5 trieu USD), AusAID (7,1 tiieu USD), US AID (13 tiieu USD) Cdc nha tai trg cung nhu WB khdng dua dieu khodn ddc biet nao de giai ngan quy 84,6% cdc hoat ddng quy BCCRF tdi ug dugc thyc hien bdi cac td chiic cua Chinh phii, 10% bdi NGOs (cdc to chiic phi Chinh phii) vd cac Id chiic xa hdi dan sy khdc dudi d^ing cac chuang trinh dya vao cgng ddng va 2% bdi WB nham cung cdp cdc cdng viSc phdn tich vd hd trg ky Ihual de dat muc tieu thii va thii cua Ke hoach hanh ddng va chien luge biln ddi hau (BCCSAP) 2.2 Muc tieu cua Quy BCCRF Muc tieu ciia Quy BCCRF la hd trg viec thyc hien BCCSAP 2009, bao gdm ITnh vuc chinh: (i) An ninh luong thyc, bdo v? xd hOi va y te; (ii) Quan ly thien tai toan dien; (iii) Phdi Irien co sd tang; (iv) Nghien ciiu va kien thiic quan ly; (v) Giam nhe va phat trien it cac-bon; (vi) Xay dyng nang lyc va lang cudng the che Cdc hoat ddng tdi chinh ciia BCCRF dugc thiet ke nhdm dat cac muc tieu cua Nguyin Thi Kim Chi, Bill Thi Bich Thao Kinh nghiem tu mo hinh BCCSAP va hd trg mdt hoac nhieu hon cac trg mdt hoac nhieu hon cac ITnh vuc ciia llnh vuc ciia BCCSAP Sd tay hudng din BCCSAP se cd the dugc cung cip von, cii thuc hien BCCRF tdm tSt cac chinh sach va the nhu Bang thii tuc thuc hien BCCRF va cung c4p * Qud trinh tdi trcr hudng dan viec tiep can, sir dung va Qua trinh tai trg quy BCCRF gdm giai thich sii dung ngudn quy BCCRF nham thuc hien cac du an ho trg ITnh vuc giai dgan: tren - Chuan bi du an: Bao gdm thidt kd ban dau, chuan bi chi tiet, tham dinh, phe duyet 2.3 Nguyen tic qudn ly Quy BCCRF tai trg, va tuyen bd hieu qua cua cac khoan Quy BCCRF la su cdng tac cua Chinh trg cip til BCCRF phli Bangladesh, cac ddi tac phat trien va - Thuc hien du an: Trach nhiem thuc WB nham giai quyet tac dgng ciia bidn ddi hau va Chinh phli Bangladesh cdng hien Uiudng dugc giao cho mgt nhdm quan tac vdi cac ddi tac phat tridn va WB quan ly du an dugc ggi la don vi thyc hien dy an ly Su cdng tac dd nham muc tieu dat dugc (PIU - Project Implementation Unit) hieu qua toi uu chi phi giao djch - Ket thiic va danh gia dy an: Ngay kSt la thSp nhat, lam cho Chinh phii thiic dy an chinh thiic se dugc quy dinh Bangladesh phan bd ngudn vdn tdi hang Hiep dinh vien trg Ddn dd, tit trieu ngudi dan Bangladesh dd tang cudng ca cac hang hda, cdng trinh, va cac djch vu kha nang lirng phd cua hg vdi tac ddng ciia can dugc tra lai de cac hoat dgng du an bien ddi hau dugc hoan ciu true quan ly ciia BCCRF gdm cip: (i) Hgi ddng lanh dao (GC Governing Council), (ii) Uy ban quan Iy (MC - Management Committee), va Ban thu ky (Secretariat)' [Hinh 1] 2.4 Dieu kien de xin tdi tra ciia BCCRF' * Cdc hogt dong co Ihi xin vdn Quy BCCRF se cung cip tai chinh eho bat Cli hoat ddng nao nhim dat dugc muc tieu ciia BCCSAP Bit cii boat ddng nao hd ' BCCRF (2013), Amual Report 2013, p.47-49, htlp://bccrf-bd.ore/Documents-Publicationshtml 'Ngu6n hltD://bccrf-bd.iirp/ 24 Bai hgc kinh nghiem cho Viet Nam tir md hinh BCCRF 3.1 Thuc trgng guy img bien ddi hgu a Viet Nam Viet Nam la mgt nhimg qudc gia de bi tdn thuong nhit anh hudng cua bien ddi hau Bidn ddi hau cd thd se lam tram them nhiing nguy co sin cd ddi vdi tai nguyen thidn nhien, ndng nghiep, an ninh luong thyc, co sd ting, y te va dat nhiing mdi de dga ldn cho phat tridn kinh td va nguoi, cung nhu mdi trudng cua Viet Nam, dd ngudi ngheo va cdng ddng ngheo it co kha nang Nghien ciiu An Do va Chau A Sd - 2015 Hinh 1: Cau true quan Iy ciia BCCRF [ Governing Council i [ Trustee (World Bank) — Management Committee (MoEFj • Program management • GC/MC (Screening, ntinutes, etc) • TF management • Investment Secretariat • M&E (compilation + program level) • Coordination (World Bank) * Communications 'Others i""!"' 1' r ftsk Teams (World Bank) ;:K Task Team Function: National Implementing Entity (NIE) (unidentified) Supervision/tech, du? diligence Procurement Review Financial Mgmt Reeview (Child TF) Safeguard! Review Legal due diligence : • Responsible Agencies (e.g LGEO) Project Management & Report'ng Procurement Financial Management Safeguards Ngudn: BCCRF (2QU\ Annual Report 2013, p.47 Bang 1: Cac hoat dong co the xin tai tro tir BCCRF LTnh vuc Chuong trinh An ninh luong thyc, bao ve xa hoi va y te - Kha nang nghien cuu cac cay ung vai bien doi hau va bien chiing - Phat triSn he thong miia mang limg v6i bien doi hau - Thich ling vai han han - Thich ling nghe ca - Thich ling chan nuoi gia siic - Thich ung nganh y te - Chucmg trinh nuoc sach va ve sinh a nhiing khu vuc bi ton thuang bofi 25 Nguyen Thi Kim Chi, Biii Thj Bich Thao Kinh nghiem lit mo hinh hau - Bao ve sinh ki nhOng khu vuc co he sinh thai dl v5 - Bao ve sinh ki cua nhOng nhom kinh t^-xa hoi bi ton thuang (bao gom Linh vu-c Chuang trinh phu nu) Quan ly thien tai toan dien - Cai thien canh bao sam va du bao lu lut - Cai thien canh bao bao - Nang cao nhan thiic va giao due cgng dong ve ung vai bien doi hau - Quan ly nii ro ch6ng lai mit mat ve thu nhap va tai san Llnh vuc Phat trien cc sor tang Chuong trinh - Sua chiia va bao duang he thfing de ch6ng lii hien tai - Sua chiia va bao duang cac ham tranh bao Sua chua va bao duang cac khu dat lan bien dang co - Cai thien he thong thoat nuac a thi - Thich ling vai lii - Thich ling vai bao nhiet dai - Len ke hoach va thiet ke cong trinh cai tao song - Len ka hoach, thilt ke va thuc hien nao vet bun cho long song LTnh vuc Nghien cuu va kien thuc quan Iy Chu(mg trinh - Thanh l^p trung tam quan ly va dao tao kiln thiic vh bidn d6i hau - Lap kich ban bien doi hau cap qu6c gia va cip dual cip qu6c gia - Nghien cuu cho viec thich iing voi nuac biin dang - Kiem soat su thay d6i vh he sinh thai va da dang sinh hoc va nhung tac dong ciia chiing - Tac dong kinh ii theo nganh va kinh te vT mo ciia biln doi hau - Kiem soat luong di cu Irong nuac va nuac ngoai va cung c§p hd tra 26 Nghien cuu An Do va Chau A So - 2015 cho hp thong qua phat trien nang lyc djnh cu a moi trucmg mai - Kiem soat tac dpng ciia nhung van de khac lien quan den quan ly du ljch Cf Bangladesh va viec thirc hien ke hoach hanh dpng chien lupc LTnh vuc Chuong trinh Giam nhe va phat trien it cac-bon - Cai thien hieu suat nang luong san suat va tieu thu nang luong - Khai thac gas va quan ly khu du trii - Phat trien khai thac than da va cac nha may su dung than da - Phat trien nang lugng co the lam mai - Phat thai dat nong nghiep thap han - Quan ly rac thai thi - Trong cau gay rimg va chuang trinh rimg - Ma rgng viec sii dung cac thiet bi tilt kiem nang lugng - Hieu suat nang lugng va nuo'c moi tmong da xay dung - Cai thien miic tieu thi nang lugng nganh giao thong van tai va each dl lam giam bat LTnh vuc Xay dung nang luc va tang cuong the che Chuong trinh - Xem xet lai chinh sach theo nganh doi voi iing vai bien doi hau - Biln doi hau cac Pchucng trinh phat triln quoc gia, theo nganh va theo khong gian - Tang cuong nSng luc ngu6n nhan luc - Tang cuang quylt dinh theo gioi viec quan ly thay d6i hau - Cai thien nang luc thl che nham ung vai bien doi hau - Ph6 biln biln d6i hau tren tmyln hinh thich ling se la nhdm bj tac dgng nang ne nhit Xu hudng phat thai nha kinh toan cau cho thay den nam 2100, trai dat cd the se ndng them 4°C va khidn Viet Nam gap phai su thay ddi nhiet ldn, dae biet la d 27 Nguyen Thi Kim Chi, Bui Thj Bich Thao Kinh nghiem tie md hinh khu vuc phia B5c Cac tham hga thien nhien va muc nuac bien dang da va dang gay nhflng hau qua n ^ g ne doi vai nguai va tai san, gay nhung anh huong bat lgi tai tang tmong va giam ngheo, va tai nhieu ITnh vuc khac ciia nen kinh te Trong hai thap ky qua, uac tinh moi nam Viet Nam da thiet hai tir 1% den 1,5% GDP cac tham hga thien nhien Chang han nhu can bao Xangsane nam 2006 da gdy thiet hai tai 1,2 ti la M^ 15 tinh a khu vuc mien Tmng Tuy nhien, Chinh phii Viet Nam da va dang the hien cam ket manh mg iing vdi bien doi hau, giam nhe rui ro thien tai va tang truang xanh, ap dung phuang thiic lien nganh tap trung vao thich iing va tang cuong no lyc de giam nhe tac dgng ciia bien doi hau Viet Nam da dat dupc nhung tyu dang ke ITnh vyc phong chong va iing vai bien ddi hau, da huy dpng nguon luc tai chinh tir nhieu nguon khac de iing vai bien doi hau nhu tir ngan sach trung uong, ngan sach dja phucmg, tir nguoi dan, cac doanh nghiep va c^c to chiic kinh tl - xa hgi khac, nhat la tir cac nguon tai chinh hau quoc te tu cac doi tac song phuang nhu Dan Mach, Thuy Dien, Nhat Ban hay tir cac to chiic da phuang nhu WB, Ngan hang Phit trien chau A (ADB) Tuy nhien, nlu xet ve mgt mo hinh nhu quy BCCRF ciia Bangladesh thi Viet Nam chua co 3.2 Bdi hgc kinh nghiem cho Viet Nam tie BCCRF 28 Viec ling vai bien doi hau thong qua viec lap quy iing voi biln d6i hau de co the giu' vai tro chii dgng viec lua chpn cac du an, tim kilm ngu6n tai chinh hau la rat can thilt Mgt s6 bai hgc kinh nghiem cho viec lap Quy iing vai biln d6i hau a Viet Nam nit tir mo hinh Quy BCCRF nhu sau: Thie nhdt, Quy cin co ca quan rieng chiu trach nhiem ve vice lap cac ccr che chinh sach nham huy dpng nguon lire tai chinh nham iing vai bien doi hau mgt each tot nhat dual su giiip ciia cac nha tai trp co kinh nghiem ve tai chinh hau nhu WB Ca quan can co dai dien ciia cac bp, ban nganh lien quan; ciia cac nha tai trp va ca cac to chiic chinh trixa hpi khac Tuy nhien, Bg TM nguyen va Moi tmong cin giu- vai tro chii dao viec cac quyet sach va kiln nghi, ddng thai tham khao y kien va tu vin ciia cac dli tac khac Thu hai, Quy can phai nhim muc ti£u thyc hien cac chuong trinh muc tieu quoc gia vh iing vai biln d6i hau, giiip dd, cung cip cac ngu6n tai chinh cho cac dia phuong, cac t6 chiic co dy an Tuy nhien, cin dua mgt bg tieu chuin cu thl, cung nhu cac dilu kien, cac budc cin thiet de trinh, xet duyet, thim djnh va phe duyet du an, danh gia, kilm tra sau dy an hoan Thu ba, ben canh vai tro huong din, h6 trg ciia nha tai tra (WB), cac nha lanh dao Quy (nguai Viet Nam) cin phai Nghien ciiu An Do vaChau A So - 2015 chii dpng hpc hoi, tim toi, nghien ciiu cac mo hinh qu^ ling voi bien doi hau khac, ciing nhu cac mo hinh tai chinh hau tren the gioi de lya chpn cac cong cu, bien phap, mo hinh ap dung vao dieu kien cu the ciia Viet Nam Tuy nhien, viec ap dung khong dupc rap khuon ma phai CO chpn lpc va can cii vao dieu kien cu the ciia timg dy an cung nhu khu vyc thyc hien dy an Tai lieu kham khao Ban Quan he Qu6c tl (2013), Ho so thi trudng Bangladesh, tr.2, http://img.vcci.com.vn/lmages/Uploaded/Share /2013/02/25/HSTT-Bangladesh-Jan2Q13.pdn Ha Noi BCCRF (2013), Annual Report 2013, p.47-49, http://bccrf-bd.org/DocumentsPublications.html 3.http://bccrf-bd.org Thie tu, can tang cudng vai trd tham gia ciia dja phuang cung nhu cac td chiic kinh tl-xa hpi khac, nhat la tir phia tu nhan, tir doanh nghiep vi bien ddi hau khdng phai la nhiem vy ciia mdt hai ngudi ma la ciia mgi ngudi Cd sy tham gia chii dgng, tich cyc ciia cac dan vi nay, Quy se khdng nhiing chu ddng ve ngudn von ma cdn nam rd nhu ciu vdn nhim ling phd vdi biln ddi hau Thii- ndm, cin cdng khai ve Quy tren cac phucmg tien thdng tin dai chiing, nhit la thdng qua viec lap website de nhiing ca nhan, td chiic cd nhu cau tai trg hoac nhu ciu von cd the tim hieu Tren trang web cin phai dua cac van ban can thill vl quy trinh, dieu kien, thii tuc, thdi gian nhan, tra hd sa; dae biet cin cdng khai ngudi phu trach ciia timg phong ban 29 ... quan hanh phap cao nhit vh kinh th, tir 1996, kinh te Bangladesh tang trudng 5,8%/nam b& chip nen chinh tri khong on dinh, tang co so yeu kem, tham nhung va viec cai each kinh th cham chap Mac dii... Nguyen Thi Kim Chi, Biii Thj Bich Thao Kinh nghiem lit mo hinh hau - Bao ve sinh ki nhOng khu vuc co he sinh thai dl v5 - Bao ve sinh ki cua nhOng nhom kinh t^-xa hoi bi ton thuang (bao gom Linh... thay d6i vh he sinh thai va da dang sinh hoc va nhung tac dong ciia chiing - Tac dong kinh ii theo nganh va kinh te vT mo ciia biln doi hau - Kiem soat luong di cu Irong nuac va nuac ngoai va cung