vai trò của vốn con người với tăng trưởng kinh tế vùng duyên hải nam trung bộ

2 I Ha Thi Thigu Dao & Nguyin Dang Khoa | 02 - 20 Vai tro cua von ngircri vol tang tru-ong kinh te vung duyen hai Nam Trung Bo HaThiThi£uDao Truong Dai hgc Ngan hang TP.HCM - daohtt@buh.edu.vn Nguyen D a n g K h o a Tnrdng Cao dang Cgng dong Binh Thuan - nguyenkhoa.pt@btu.edu.vn Ngay nhan: 12/12/2013 Ngay nhan lai; 24/01/2014 Ngav duyei dang: 12/05/2014 Ma so: I2-13-S-06 Til' khoa: V6n ci>ii ngirai tang trucmg kinh le giao due chai lugng lao dong Keywords: Human capital, economic growth, education, labor quality Tom tat Vdi muc dich ki^m chung vai tro ciia von nguoi den tang trudng kinh td vung Duyen hai Nam Trung Bg (DHNTB), nghien ciiu ap dung mo hinh tang trudng tan co dien vdi ham san xuat Cobb-Douglas md rgng gom cac bien: San lugng, von vat chat, luc lugng lao dgng, von ngudi va cac bien vT mo khac anh hudng den nen kinh te Nghien ciiu Sli' dung dfl' lieu bang can doi ciia tinh, DHNTB giai doan 2000-20! I Vdi mo hinh hieu irng co djnh, ket qua uoc lugng cho thiy c6 anh hirong cua cac yeu to; Von vat chat, luc lugng lao dgng, von ngudi, ti trgng von FDI, ti trgng chi tieu ciia Chinh phii va ti trgng nong nghiep doi vdi tang truong kinh te Trong do, yeu to von ngudi bang so nam di hgc binh quan ciia luc lugng lao dgng vdi hieu ung udc lugng gan 0.43% tren moi phan nam tang ihem cua so nam di hgc binh qu3n Abstract To examine the role of human capital in economic growth in coastal provinces of Southern Central Vietnam (SCV) the research employs data from balance sheets of eight provinces in this region and a neoclassical growth model with an extended Cobb-Douglas production function including the following variables: output, capital, labor,, human capital and other macroeconomic variables that have effects on economic development Iistimation results based on the fixed effect model show thai the economic growth is affected by capital, labor, human capital, FDI, public expenditure, and agricultural production Of these variable, the human capital is represented by averageschoolingyear of laborers with an estimated effect of nearly 0,43% per a one-percent increase in the average schooling year Phat triln Kinh te 283 (05/2014) | DAT VANDE Ve li thuyet, vdn ngudi the hien ddng gdp vd chat lugng va sd lugng cua ngudi vao tang trudng kinh td Tuy nhien, kdt qua nghien cuu thyc nghidm lai cho thay su khdng thdng nhat kiem dinh mdi quan he giira vdn ngudi va tang trudng kinh td UNDP (2011) xac dinh "Y te va giao due la chia khda de phat tridn ngudi", nhidn "nhirng tien bd vd y td va giao due khdng phai Iuc nao cting di kem vdi tang thu nhap" Permani (2009) cho rang cd mdi quan he nhan qua giira vdn ngudi va tang trudng kinh te Leeuwen (2004) nhan dinh mdi quan he khdng ro rang Chinh vi vay Romer (1990) da canh bao vide giai thich mdi tucmg quan giira vdn ngudi va tang trudng kinh td ddi hdi sy than trgng bdi Ie rat cd the tang trudng san lugng va lang trudrig vdn ngudi lac dgng lan chu khdng phai la mdi quan he mdt chidu Trong giai doan 2000-2011, vung DHNTB vdi tdc tang trudng kinh td binh quan kha cao 11.7% so vdi tdc tang irudng kinh td binh quan ca nudc la 7,11 % Ben canh Bda cdo dieu tra lao dong viec ldm (TCTK 2012) cho thay vung Bac Trung Bg va Duyen hai mien Trung cd ti Id tham gia lao dgng kha cao chi xdp viing Trung du va midn nui phia Bac va Tay Nguydn Lieu cd mdi quan tuang quan duong giua vdn ngudi va tang trudng kinh td cua viing DHNTB - nai ganh chju nhieu thien tai nhat ca nudc hay khong? Nhdm nghien cuu ticn hanh kidm chirng nham phan tich vai trd ciia ydu td von ngudi va cac.ydu td tang trudng khac ddi vdi tang trudng kinh td cac tinh phd DHNTB giai doan 2000-2011 de tir dd cd nhii'ng giai phap dau tu, phat tridn cac yeu td tang trudng mgt each hgp Ii gdp phan vao tang trudng kinh td ciia vung va ca nudc VOIN CON NGUOI VA KHUNG PHAN TICH Nhieu if thuyet va md hinh khang dinh vai trd cua vdn ngudi ddi vdi tang trudng kinh td Li thuyet tang trudng tan cd didn vdi md hinh lang trudng Solow (1956) xem von ngudi la yeu td dau vao ciia tang trudng kinh te Tuy nhidn vdn ngudi d day la bien ngoai sinh va chi cht'i trgng ddn sd lugng Thuyet tang trudng ngi sinh ciia Mankiw & cgng su (1992) Lucas (1988) xem vdn ngudi nhu la mgt yeu td tac dgng true tiep ddn tang irudng hoac gian tidp tac dgng den lang trudng thdng qua thay ddi cdng nghe nhu md hinh R&D ciia Romer (1990) Vdn ngirdi la mdt khai niem phiic tap bao ham nhirng kT nang tri thuc, kha nang lao dgng sue khde va nhirng gia tri ngudi duge hinh sudt cudc ddi ciia ngudi thdng qua qua trinh dau tu va tich luy lau dai dd ydu td giao due dugc I Ha Thi Thigu Dao & Nguyen DSng Khoa j 02 - 20 coi la ngudn tich luy ca ban nhk OECD (2001) dinh nghTa vdn ngudi la "kien thuc, kT nang, nang luc va nhiing thudc linh tidm lang moi ca nhan gdp phan tao ndn sy thjnh vugng kinh td, xahoi va ciia ban than ngudi ay'' Laroche (1999) cho rang vdn ngudi cd cac dac trung: Vii'a mang tinh cong dong, vua mang linh ca bidt, vua chiia dyng ca mat lugng lan mat chat va chua dyng ca nhung hieu irng ngoai sinh; vdn ngudi khdng phai hang hda ndn khdng cd thi trudng cho phep mua ban tai san vdn ngudi va khdng phai luc nao eon ngudl cijng cd the kidm soat cac kenh va each thuc dd cd dugc Vdn ngudi la mdt khai nidm phuc tap ndn dugc ludng bang nhidu each khac Romer (1989) sir dung ti Id ngudi bidt dgc biet vidt d ngudi Irudng Barro (1991) sir dung ti Id nhap hgc d bac tieu hgc; Mankiw & edng sy (1992) su dung ti Id nhap hgc d bae trung hgc ca sd Mulligan & Sala-i-Martin (1997) cho rSng "Irinh ciia mdt ngudi lidn quan ddn muc tidn luong ma ngudi nhan dugc tren thi Irudng" vi vay vdn ngudl cho mdt nen kinh te dugc bang thu nhap cua lao ddng; Barro & Lee (1993) sir dung sd nam di hgc binh quan cua luc lugng lao dgng va thudc dugc su dung rdng rai Irong nhieu nghidn cu'u Judson (1995) dd xuat lay chi phi giao due lam trgng sd de tinh mii'c vdn ngudi cho mdi cap hgc Mac dil cd su tranh luan vd vai trd vdn ngudi tang trudng kinh Id cua cac qudc gia Nhung cac nghidn cuu thuc nghidm vd vai trd vdn ngudi giiJa cac tinh, cac vung mdt qudc gia lai kha tuong ddng Lau & cgng su (1993), Cravo & Soukiazis (2009) cho rang can phai dau tu va phat tridn giao due dai han dd lir thiic day tang trudng kinh te cac bang cua Brazil Theo Coulmbe & Tremblay (2001), giao due chinh la chia khoa dd tang trudng kinh td tai cac viing ciia Canada Ng & Leung (2004) nhan thay vide md rdng giao due dai hgc va cao dang, song song vdi viec nang cao chat lugng giao due bac phd thdng la giai phap phat trien kinh td cac tinh ciia Trung Qudc Nguyen Th; Tue Anh & Le Xuan Ba (2005), Tran Thg Dat & cgng sy (2007) cho rang dau tu va phat tridn khu vyc giao due la each kha thi dd nang cao tang irudng va phat tridn kinh te cac tinh cua VN Kel qua tuong tu cung dugc tim thay cac nghien ciru cua Martin & Herranz (2004), Permani (2008), Ll & Liang (2009), Vogi Vidyattama (2010) Ben canh do, cac nha kinh td da tim kidm cac ydu td ngoai vdn ngu'di quyet dinh ddn tang trudng kinh td sudt thdi gian dai nhu cac nghien cuu cua Barro (1991), Mankiw & cgng sy (1992), Barro & Sala-i-Martin (1995) Mdt sd ydu td quyet djnh Phat trign Kinh te 283 (05/2014)1 tang tru'dng kinh td cd anh hudng ddn kinh te cac vimg, tinh cda mdt qudc gia nhu: (i) Vdn dau tu dai didn cho vdn vat chat cua mgt ndn kinh te cd lac dgng tich cyc ddn tang trudng kinh Id; (ii) Lyc lugng lao ddng la ydu td quan trgng khdng the thidu ddi vdi tang Irudng kinh Id Ydu td lao ddng vira the hien ca mat lugng la sd lugng lao ddng va mat chat dugc hieu la vdn ngudi Sy gia lang luc lugng lao ddng se gdp phan tang trudng kinh te; (ill) Muc hdi nhap kinh Id qudc te thudng ludng bang ti trgng xuat nhap khau tren GDP Cac nghien ciru cho thay md cira cua ndn kinh te tac ddng tich cyc den tang Irudng kinh id; (iv) Chi lidu ciia chinh phu vua phai se kich thich tang Irudng kinh te nhung neu chi tidu cua chinh phu vugt qua mirc gidi han se can trd tang trudng kinh td (Rahn, 1986); (v) Anh hudng cua cac doanh nghidp nha nudc (DNNN) Ng & Leung (2004), Tvkn Thg Dal & cgng sy (2007) cho r^ng cac DNNN hoai dgng kinh te ydu kem va didu dd ban che ddng gdp vao tang trudng kinh td; (vi) Ti trgng cua ndng nghidp Irong nen kinh td cd ddng gdp vao lang trudng kinh te giam dan Ng & Leung (2004) cho rang vide md rgng cac hoat dgng kinh Id phi ndng nghidp la budc quan irgng dd phat trien kinh td Vdl cac li thuyet va nghidn ciiu thuc nghidm tdm lugc d tren, nhdm tac gia dd xuat khung phan tich d Hinh 1; dd chu trgng nghien cuu tac ddng ciia vdn ngudi ddn tang trudng kinh te va tac dgng ciia nhirng ydu td khac den tang trudng kinh td nghidn cuu dugc dd cap den vdl vai trd cua cac bidn kidm soat MO HINH VA CAC BIEN NGHIEN CUU Dya vao li thuyet va cac nghidn cuu trudc dac biet l a c u a N g & Leung (2004) nhdm tac gia dd xuat md hinh nghidn ciru vdi dang ham san xual Cobb-Douglas: };, = A^Kf'-H^" Lf/ €^-'"••,2 = {F,G,SOE,ARG) Trong dd: i la bieu thj tinh, va t bidu thj thdi gian, Y„ la mirc san lugng, Ao ia yeu td cdng nghd Ku la mu'c von vat chat Hi, la mii'c vdn ngudl L,, la lao dong, Z la tap hgp cac bien sd anh hudng ddn san lugng phii hgp vdi ndn kinh td dang chuydn ddi Gom cd; Do md cira cua ndn kinh td nudc (F), sy can thiep cua chinh phii nen kinh Id (G), anh hudng cua DNNN (SOE) vai trd cua ndng nghiep (ARG) 6 I Ha Thi Thifa Dao & Nguygn Dang Khoa | 02 - 20 Von vat chat Lao dpng C • ^ Von ngudi Ti le ngudi bidt doc, biet vigt So nSm di hgc binh quan Chi phi cho giao due Tang trudng kinh te Muc hgi nhap ngoai thuang Chi tieu ciia chinh phii Anh huong cua DNNN Ti nong nghigp Hinh Cac ycu td anh hudng den tang trudng kinh te ^i dp dung cae md hinh hdl quy nghien cuu, la lay logarit hai vd va chuydn vd dang sau: Md hinh he sd khdng thay ddi ~ Pooled OLS b y;, = a + y?; In K„ + >9^ In //„ -H p, In L„ (I) + ^/ P„ + 'S',,G„ + ^SOESOE,, -1- 0„„-ARG„ + »„ Trong do: ff p va la cac he so chda dyng hidu ii'ng cua cac bidn ngoai sinh va Uji la so hang sal sd the hidn lac ddng ciia cac bidn bj bd qua Md hinh hidu iing cd dinh - FEM \nY,=a + a,+ fi^ In AT,, + p,^ In //„ + p, In i„ ^e,.F,, +e,G„ +e^,„.soE„+e„,^-ARG,, +«„ (2) Trong do; a la cac dai lugng cd dinh cua mdi linh bao ham dac trung ciia tinh Ihir i Md hinh hidu ung ngau nhien - REM Phat trign Kinh t^ 283 (05/2014) | \nY.,=a-\-a+p^]nK, + ^FK +p„\nH, + p,}n + &GGU + OSOESOE, + d^^^ARG, +u, L, ^ ' Trong dd: a, la sai sd ngau nhidn theo dan vj khdng gian tuan theo quy luat phan phdi chuan Vdi cac bien dugc md ta: - Bidn phu thugc: Y la GDP eiia cac tinh, phd theo gia so sanh nam 1994 va dugc bang don vi nghin ti VND - Bien giai thich; + Bidn H (vdn ngudi) Cac thudc vdn ngudl ddu cd nhtrng iru, nhugc diem va phan anh cac khia canh khac cua vdn ngudi Tuy nhien, nhirng khd khan Irong thu thap du' lieu nen nhdm tac gia su dung sd nam dl hgc binh quan cua luc lugng lao dgng de ludng vdn ngudl Thudc cung dugc sir dung kha phd bien Irong cac nghidn cu'u phan ti'ch tang Irudng kinh te cua cac khu vyc kinh te, cac qudc gia cd VN nhu Cravo & Soukiazis (2009), Tran Thg Dat & cdng su (2007) Nhdm tac gia phan lao dgng nhdm theo trinh giao due dat dugc tucmg tu nhu each phan nhdm cua Luat Giao due VN (2005); (i) Khdng cd trinh (mil chii); (il) Biet chir nhung chua hoan bac tieu hgc; (iii) Da tot nghidp tidu hgc; (iv) Da tdt nghidp trung hgc ea sd; (v) Da tdt nghidp trung hgc phd thdng; (vi) Cd trinh cao dang, dai hgc va sau dai hgc Sd nam di hgc binh quan dugc tinh cua lyc lugng lao ddng dugc tinh cdng thuc o c tung den truong Chi nhung ngudi Iuc lugng Iao dgng biet doc bigt vigt nhung chua hgc xong b|c tigu hoc Chi nhung ngudi Iuc lugng Iao dgng da tot nghiep tieu hpc va khong di hgc nua Chi nhO'ng nguoi Iuc lugng lao dgng da tot nghiep trung hgc co sd va khong di hgc nua Tj (so nam) , Q - Tot nghigp trung hgc Chi nhung nguoi Iuc lugng lao dgng da tot thong nghiep trung hgc thong va khong di hgc nua ^; :L ^ Chi nhiing ngudi trone luc luong lao done da tot Tot nghiep cao dang, dai ^ R * -? ' ' , r ^ V " , * , " • nghiep cao dang, dai hoc va nhune tnnh cao , o o hoc va sau dai hoc hon , + Bidn K (vdn vat chat) dugc udc tinh bang cdng thuc : K^ ={\ — (5)Ar„| + /, vdi It la vdn dau tu hang nam va la ti Id khau hao Do khdng du sd lidu cua cac tinh, phd trudc nam 1996, nen nhdm tac gia su dung GDP nam 1996 thay cho vdn vat chat ban dau Ko Day cung la nhan dinh cua Tran Thg Dat & cgng sy (2007) De dan gian, li Id khau hao dugc gia djnh d muc - % Dd ciing la ti Id khau hao dugc sii' dung nghien ciru cua Ng & Leung (2004), Tran Thg Dat & cgng sy (2007), Whalley & Zhao (2010) + Bien L (lao dgng) dugc tinh bang sd ngudi Irong dan sd hoat dgng kinh td khong phan biet tinh trang vide lam (Lau & cgng sy, 1993) Nghien ciru ludng lyc lugng lao dgng.eua mdi tinh, phd bang tdng dan sd boat dgng kinh td cua tinh, bat ke tinh trang vide lam nhu thd nao gidng nhu djnh nghTa dugc Bg Lao dgng, Thuang binh & Xa hgi de cap + Bidn F (do md cua cua ndn kinh td) dugc bang ti trgng vdn FDI tdng von dau tu Ng & Leung (2004) cho rang md cua cua ndn kinh te nude gdp phan nang cao trinh cdng nghd thdng qua vide thue day cae ddng nhap khau kT thuat va cdng nghd tien tidn cdng nhu kinh nghidm quan li cua nudc ngoai vao ndn kinh te nudc Do do, nghien cuu ki vgng mdi quan he duang (+) giira F va tang trudng kinh te Phat trign Kinhte 283 (05/2014)1 Nguydn Thi Tud Anh & cdng su (2006), Tran Thg Dat & cdng su (2007) cung su dung chi tieu + Bien G (sy can thiep cua chinh phu) dugc ttnh bSng ti trgng chi lidu ciia chinh phii so vdl GDP Tac ddng cua chi tieu cua chinh phu ddn lang irudng kinh Id ihdng thudng cd quan he ducmg Nhung Barro (1997) cho ring sy ean thiep cua chinh phii se dan den meo md thi trudng va can trd tidn bg cdng nghe Theo Rahn (1986), gia tang chi tidu ciia chinh phtJ cd thd se can trd tang trudng neu chi tidu cua chinh phu vugt qua muc gidi ban Tuy nhidn, mdt sd nghidn cuu tai VN nhu Pham Thd Anh (2008), Hoang Thi Chinh Thon & cdng su (2010) cho thay he sd G am (-) Vi vay nghien cuu ki vgng mdi quan he am (-) giu'a G va tang trudng kinh te + Bidn SOE (anh hudng cua DNNN) dugc tinh bang li trgng gia tri cdng nghidp ciia DNNN gia trj cdng nghidp Tran Thg Dat & cdng su (2007) cho ring cac DNNN cd the khdng nhanh nhay vide lan dung tien bd cdng nghd kT thuat tham chi cdn gap nhidu khd khan qua trinh chuydn ddi sang co chd thj trudng d VN Word Bank (2012) nhan xet cac DNNN VN su dung nhieu ngudn lyc nhung lai kem hidu qua nhal, Dieu the hien qua hidu suat vdn: Nam 2000 ti Id doanh thu/vdn trung binh cua cac DNNN la 1,6 so vdi 8,8 cua loan bg khu vyc doanh nghiep, khoang each gia tang theo thai gian, nam 2009 ti Id lan lugt la 1,1; 21,0 Do vay, nghien ciru ki vgng mdi quan he am (-) glii'a SOE va tang trudng kinh td Dd ciing la nhan djnh chung cua Ng & Leung (2004), Tran Thg Dat & edng sy (2007) + Bidn ARG (vai trd ciia san xuat ndng nghiep nen kinh td) dugc tinh bang tl trgng cua nhdm nganh ndng, lam nghiep va thuy san so vdl GDP Ng & Leung (2004), cho rSng cac tinh, phd dua nhidu vao san xuat ndng nghiep it cd ca hdi gia tang nang suSt han cac tinh dua vao san xuat cdng nghidp Tran Thg Dat & cgng su (2007) cung cho bidt giam ti trgng nganh ndng nghidp GDP se thiic day lang trudng kinh te cac tinh, phd Nghien cuu ki vgng mdi quan he am (-) giiJa ARG va tang trudng kinh te PHU01\G PHAP NGHIEN CUV Dd tai su dung thiet kd nghien cuu djnh lugng vdi sy hd trg cua phan mdm Stata 11 dd phan tieh mdi quan he cua vdn eon ngudi va tang Irudng kinh te cac tinh, phd DHNTB gial doan 2000-2011 DiJ lieu dugc sir dung la bang can ddi (Balanced Panel Data) cua tinh, phd DHNTB glal doan 2000-2011 dugc tdng hgp tii' sd lieu cua Tdng cue Thdng ke (GDP phan theo nhdm nganh kinh td, vdn dau tu phan theo ngudn 10 I Ha Thj Thigu Dao & Nguyen Dang Khoa j 02 - 20 dau tu, chi tidu ngan sach eua dja phuong; gia tri cdng nghidp phan theo hinh thuc sd hiru theo gia so sanh nam 1994) va Bd Lao dgng, Thuong binh va Xa hgi (Sd dan boat ddng kinh te va phan theo trinh giao due) giai doan 2000-2011 KET QUA NGHIEN CUU & THAO LUAN 5.1 Phan tich thong ke, md ta cac bien md hinh Bang Thdng ke mo ta cac bien mo hmh nghien ciru ^^ quan •f Gia tri ' trung binh Gi^ tri " trung vj Gia tri , Ion nhat Gi^ tri • nho nhat D6 lech i 'cnuan Bo • nghieng Dfi u nnon Y 96 5290,44 4607.888 13370,36 1252,342 2947,537 0,8102 2,9068 K 96 7224,635 6041,463 19708,64 1475,895 4123,153 0,8619 3,1121 L 96 536990 545357,5 852900 216847 180974,4 -0,1237 1,8820 H 96 6,7652 6,4454 9,6300 5,5772 1,1012 1,5900 4,5316 F 96 0,0671 0,04 0.35 0,0666 1,6650 6,1693 G 96 0.2592 0.235 0,5 0,13 0,0895 0,8580 3,0733 SOE 96 0,3917 0,37 0.91 0,09 0.1969 0.2631 2,3276 ARG 96 0,2943 0,32 0,52 0,03 0,1285 -0,5818 2,4212 Nguon: Ket qua phan tich ttr phan mem Stata 11 Bang cho thay eac bidn Y, K, L, G, SOE va ARG cd gia tri trung binh va gia tri trung vi chenh lech khdng ldn, gia trj he sd nghieng va nhgn cua sd lieu phan phdl kha deu va tap trung Didu the hidn sy lang Irudng kha ddng deu cua cac linh phd DHNTB Tuy nhien, kdt qua cung cho thay cd su chenh lech kha ldn giira gia tri nho nhal va cao nhat ciia cac bien trdn; cd sy chenh lech chi lieu ngan sach va ti trgng ciia ndng nghiep GDP giu'a cac tinh, phd Dang chu y la sy chdnh lech kha ldn ddng gdp gia trj cdng nghiep cua DNNN gia trj cdng nghidp (SOE) giua cac linh phd Quang Ngai cd gia trj SOE cao nhal ldn den % nhd khu lgc dau Dung Quat so vdi Binh Dinh thap nhat la 9% Cac gia tri ciia bidn H Bang cho thay sd lieu thd hidn phan phdi Idch phai va mirc lap trung cac sd lieu la mgt da giac nhgn vdl hai dudi hep Didu thd hidn Phat trign Kinh tg 283 (05/2014)j 11 muc vdn ngudl cua da sd cac tinh, phd cao hem muc vdn ngudi binh quan cua viing va cd su chech idch Idn ve muc vdn ngudi gid'a cac tinh cao va thap Bidn F cd sy chdnh lech kha ldn giiia gia tri Idn nhit la 35% (Phu Ydn) va gia tr; nhd nhat la 0% (Binh Thuan) Vdi cac gia tri trung binh va gia tri trung vj gan bang nhau, gia tri nghidng va gia trj dd ddc phan phoi Idch phai; muc dd tap trung cua cac sd lieu cd dang da giac kha nhgn vdl hal dudi hep, cho thay cd sy chenh Idch kha ldn vd thu hut vdn dau tu FDI giua eae tinh phd Bang Ma tran tuong quan cac bien md hinh nghien ciiu K 0.9444 L 0,4329 0,3708 H 0.4949 0,5181 -0,1629 F 0,1363 0,1457 -0,0501 0,1676 G -0,2652 -0,1630 -0,4283 0.0487 0.1516 SOE -0,2785 -0,2761 -0,5048 0.2054 -0.171 0,1009 ARC -0,701 -0,6992 0,0316 -0.8187 -0.2535 0,1043 Ngudn: Kh qua phan tich tu- phan niem Stata 11 Bang cho thay khong co hien tirtjng da cgng tuyen giira cac bien Trong do, bien Y th^ hien moi quan he thuan rat cao doi vai bien K each tinh gia tri K Dang chu y, biin Y CO m6i tuong quan nghich cao voi bien ARG, chi viec giain ti nong nghiep co thS se gia tang tang truang Itinh te Bien L va H the hien inoi tuang quan tuyen tinh thuan vtJi bien phu thuoc Y vai he so r lan lugt la 0,4329 va 0,3708, xac nhan co m6i quan he giua so lugng va trinh hgc van ctia lire lugng lao dgng vol tang tru'ong kinh te, Tuy nhien, m6i quan he giua L va H co moi tuang quan nghjch rSt yeu vai r = -0,1629 ham y ring khong CO inoi quan he ro rang giua so lugng va chat lugng ciia luc lugng lao dgng 12 I Ha Thj Thi^u Dao & Nguyin Dang Khoa | 02 - 20 5,2, l/tfc lirong va phan tich cac ham hoi quy Lua chon mo hinh hoi qay thich hap Nhom tac gia hoi quy mo hinh Pooled OLS, ket qua cho thay cac bien giai thich InK, InL, G, SOE, ARG co y nghTa thong ke; nhung anh huang von can nguai can quan tam a day la bien InH vai he so uoc lugng co gia tri duong lai khong co y nghTa thong ke, he so uac lutTng cua bien F lai trai voi ki vgng va ciing khong co y nghTa thong ke, Ket qua kiem dinh chung minh ton tai hien tugng phuang sai thay doi va tu tuang quan Ket qua hoi quy hai mo hinh hieu iing co djnh (FEM) va mo hinh hieu tjng ngau nhien (REM) a Bang chi da so he so uac lugng cac bien deu co y nghTa Ihong ke Trong do, he so uac iirgng cua bien InH hai mo hinh deu duang va khong co y nghTa thong ke mo hinh REIVI Bang 4, Ket quii hoi quy mo hinh hieu irng ngau nhien va hieu u'ng co dinh Bien pliu thugc: InY Mo hinh hoi quy Bien giai thich Hieu ung co djiih - FEM l„l^ 0,5325 0,7318 InL (9.99-1 0,6140 (5,65)"« 0,4251 (14.20)"* 0,1518 (2,59)«" 0,0451 (1,86)« 0,5053 (0,28) -0,0501 G (3,49)*«« -0,6144 (-0,23) -0,4382761 SOE (-4,15)«" 0,0229 (-2,4I)" -0,1541 ARG (0,33) -2,2581 (-1,74)* -0,7996 (-6,74)*" -4,3158 (-2,92)*" 0,3684 (-3,32)««* 0,9740 (0,50) 0,9543 InH F R- Hieu ting ngSu nhien - REM Ghi chu: ***, **, * co miic y nghTa thfing ke lin luot la 1%, 5% va 10%, so dSu ngoac don li t-statistic Nguon: Ket qua phan tich tii' phiin mem Stata 11 Phat triln Kinh tl 283 (05/2014)1 13 Ket qua kiem djnh Hausman bac bo gia thiet Ho, nghTa la mo hinh hieu ung co dinh (FEM) phll hgp hon so vai mo hinh hieu ung ngiiu nhien (REM) Ket qua kiem dinh mo hinh hieu ung co dinh cho th^y mo hinh FEM t6n tai phuang sai thay ddi Nhom tac gia da khac phuc hien tugng phuong sai thay doi bang each hieu chinh viec uoc lugng ma tran hiep phuang sai sai so theo phuang phap GLS nhu'ng mo hinh xu li du' lieu bang (Green, 2008), Gidi thich cac ket qua u&c lircmg mo hinh hieu img co dinh Biing 5, Ket qua hoi quy mo hinh hieu irng co djnh co chon "Robust" Bien phu thuoc: InY Mo hinh FEM co chon Robust Bi£n giai thich He so hoi quy InK 0,5325 (S,75)