CÁC YẾU TỐ GIA ĐÌNH ẢNH HƯỞNG ĐẾN TUỔI THOI HỌC CỦA THANH THIẾU NIÊN

Nghi§n ciiu Gia d i n h v a G i d i S^ - Cac yeu to gia flinh anh hirofng den tuoi tiioi iioc cua tlianii tiiieu nien Viet Nam Tran Quy Long Vi^n Nghidn ciru Gia dinh va Gi(2n Tom tat: Nghien cijtu dUdc tie'n hanh nham xem x6t mo'i quan he giiJTa cac ye'u to' gia dinh vdi nguy cd thoi hoc sdm hay muon ciia thieu nien qua phan tich so' lieu tir cuoc Dieu tra ve Vi men va Thanh men Viet Nam lan thii hai (SAW 2), sii dung hai ky thuat ap dung cho so'lieu co ca'u true "thdi giansU kien" la Udc lUdng Kaplan-Meier va mo hinh nguy cd xac suat Cox Ke't qua nghien ciiu cho tha'y dac trUng gia dinh dong vai tro quan trong viec tri qua trinh hoc van cho thieu nien Gia dinh c6 ca bo' va me d nhom hoc van cao hdn, khong phai lam nghe lao dong gian ddn thi thie'u nien co khoang thcJi gian di hoc dai hdn Thanh phan dan toe, so' lUdng anh chi em va miic so'ng gia dinh co mo'i quan he vdi tudi thoi hoc ciia thie'u nien, phan anh sU phan bd nguon liic sii dyng djch vu giao due cho vien ciia gia dinh bi anh hUdng bdi tinh trang dong ngUdi, chi phf, thu nhap va mot so'rao can khac nhu nhieu nghien ciifu da phat hien Tir khda: Thanh thieu nien: Vi nien; SAVY 2; Giao due; Tudi thoi hoc Clia thieu nien; Gia dinh Datvande Giao due mang lai ca hdi sd hiru kien ihiirc va ky nang, khuydn khfch phdt triln sang kidn, kha nang thfch umg, thay ddi hanh vi va giiip liep can 30 Nghien curu Gia dinh va Gidi Quyen 23, sd 2, tr 29-42 vdi nhumg ca hdi to ldn cudc sd'ng cho mdi ca nhan Tdm quan trpng cua giao due ddi vdi ca nhan, cdng ddng va su phat triln cua mot qudc gia dugc phan anh viec thira nhan nd nhu mdt quyin ngudi (UNFPA, 2005; Nhdm hanh ddng chdng ddi ngheo, 2002) Viet Nam da cd nhihig budc tie'n manh me viec cai thien dilu kien sdng nhiimg nam qua Ngoai sir tang len vl thu nhap va lieu dung cdn cd su tang cudng dang kl miirc dp tiep can giao due ca ban ciia thidu nien Miirc dp tiep can vdi giao due mdt tang ddng nghia vdi viec cac hd gia dinh va ban than thieu nien da nhan thiire dugc giao due la mdt ddu tu cd hieu qua va la mdl phuang ihiirc di giam ngheo ddi (Indu Bhushan va nhiimg ngudi khac, 2001) Tuy nhien, Viet Nam \'dn phai ddi mat vdi nhimg thach thurc ldn vl tinh trang tre em bd hpc gia tang (UNESCO, 2008), nhieu tre em d lira ludi vi nien khdng hpc lrung hpc (UNICEF Vict Nam, 2008) Ty le di hpc cua lhanh thidu nien ddp ludi 15-19 tuang iimg la 54,6% Tdng dilu u*a dan sd va nha d nam 2009 cho thay gdn mdt nua nien d dp ludi khdng hpc tidp d bac cao han sau hoan bac lrung hpc ca sd va lrung hpc phd thdng (UNFPA, 2011) Dilu tra qudc gia vi nien va nien Viet Nam lan thiir hai nam 2008 cho thay khoang mdt nira nhdm dan sd dd tudi 14-25 da thdi hpc, 24% sd dd da thdi hpc chua den 15 tudi (Tdng cue Dan sd - Ke hoach hda gia dinh va cac ca quan khac, 2010) Cd nhilu ly giai thfch tam quan trpng ciia viec giam ty le bd hpc ciia hpc sinh Bd hpc se lam cho viec ddu tu vao giao due trd nen khdng hieu qua muc tieu hpc hanh de'n nai den chdn khdng dat dugc (Vd Thanh Son va nhiimg ngudi khac, 2001) Dd'i vdi thidu nien, bd hpc qua sdm phai tra gia dat bang nang suat sau Thu nhap bj mdt va thieu tfch liiy ky nang se iam cho mdt ngudi khd cd the thoat ngheo ddi trudng lhanh {Ngan hang thdgidi, 2007) Ngoai \'iec phu thudc vao he thd'ng giao due hay cac chinh sach khuyen hpc, \'iec di hpc hay khdng cdn lien quan den cac dilu kien kinh te - xa hdi va nhan khdu hpc khac, cac yeu td gia dinh ludn ddng vai trd rat quan trpng (Nguyin Dure Vinh, 2009) Gia dinh dugc coi la ngudi quyet djnh trung tam qua trinh tfch luy \'dn nhan luc Chfnh cac hd gia dinh da tfnh loan dl dua cac qu\et dinh cd anh hudng sau sdc ddn ilnh trang giao due ciia cac lhanh N ien gia dinh (Indu Bhushan va nhimg ngudi khac, 2001) Cha me anh hudng den hanh vi cua hpc sinh, dd dl dang anh hudng de'n quyel djnh di hoc, bang each tac dpng den nhumg uu tien cii nhan ddi vdi giao due thdng qua mdi trudng gia dinh va Tran Quy Long 31 bang each giup phat triln cac ky nang hanh vi ciia cai hp (Ngan hang thdgidi, 2007) Nghien curu ndy dugc tie'n hanh nhdm xem xet cac ydu id ciia gia dinh cd md'i quan he nhu the nao vdi viec chdm diin hanh trinh hpc vdn d timg dd tudi ciia thidu nien Viet Nam thdng qua viec su dung sd lieu Dilu tra qudc gia vl Vi nien va Thanh nien Viet Nam Idn thur hai (SAVY 2) Hay ndi each khac, nguy ca thdi hpc sdm hay mudn ciia thieu nien phu thudc vao nhimg ydu id nao cua gia dinh Di thuc hien dugc dilu nay, nghien cum se sir dung md hinh hdi quy nguy ca xac suat Cox su dung (Cox Proportional Hazard Model) Diem luan Thanh thidu nien Viet Nam cang dugc hudng mdt nin giao due tdt han nhieu so vdi trudc day Tuy nhien, vdn cd mdt ty le nhdt dinh thidu nien Viet Nam cham dih hanh irlnh hpc van trudc mdl ldp hpc nao dd Da cd nhilu nghien curu nhdm tim hiiu nhCmg yeu td anh hudng den viec thdi hpc Clia ire em ndi chung va lhanh thidu nien ndi rieng Mdt nhumg ye'u td' quan trpng anh hudng de'n vice di hpc ciia cai la trinh dd hpc vdn ciia ciia bd me Khi trinh dd hpc van ciia cha me cao han, ire em va lhanh thidu nien ft bd hpc han (Nguyin Dure Vinh, 2009; Vd Thanh Son va nhumg ngudi khac, 2001) Neu nhirng ngudi ldn gia dinh dugc hudng su giao due td't, hp cd kha nang am hiiu lot hem vl each thiire tan dung cac dich vu giao due Vl ban chat vd'n nhan luc duac truyin lir thd he sang thd he khac (Indu Bhushan va nhiimg ngudi khac, 2001) Hpc vdn cua cha me cd thi tdc ddng ddn tinh trang giao due ciia cai ihdng qua cac yeu td trung gian nhu su quan tam den viec hpc cua con, cho hpc them, thai dd va hanh vi hudng nghiep cho con, cho tham gia cdng viec Siin xuat hay mirc chi lieu cho giao due (Nguyin Dirc Vinh, 2009) Trong gia dinh, hpc van ciia ngudi me cd vai trd dac biel quan trpng, nhumg ngudi me cd trinh dp hpc \'an cao, cai hp cd xac sua't ddn irudng cao han (Nguyin Ditc Vinh, 2009; Truomg Thi Kim Chuyen va nhiimg ngudi khac, 1999), nhumg ba me cd hpc van lam tang ngudn vdn ngudi thdng qua anh hudng cua hp ddi vdi hpc vdn cua cai (UNFPA, 2005) Mdl sd nghien cihi gdn day su dung sd lieu nhumg cudc dilu tra miic sdng dan cu cho thdy tre em nhumg gia dinh cd mirc sd'ng cao hom cd ly le nhap hpc nhilu hon (Indu Bhushan va nhimg ngudi khac, 2001; Cteneral Staii.siics Office, 2011; Truang Thj Kim Chuyen va nhumg ngudi 32 Nghien curu Gia dinh va Gidi Quyen 23, sd tr 29-42 khac, 1999; Vd Thanh Scm va nhimg ngudi khac, 2001) Indu Bhushan va nhumg ngudi khac (2001) da phan lich, nin kinh td thj trudng, giao due dudng nhu trd nen mpt khoan ddu tu cd gia trj nhilu han nin kinh td kd hoach tap trung Hoan loan cd kha nang xay la viec cdc gia dinh ngheo tan dung sure lao ddng cua em minh, vay cd Ihl bat thdi hpc hay cat giam miirc dp hpc hanh cua cai Nolwen Henaff va Jean Yves Martin (2001) lai cho rdng nhumg hoan canh \'a miirc sdng khac lam cho nhumg bat binh ddng vl mat xa hdi tang len gdp bdi Viec tidp tuc theo hpc d nhOmg bac hpc cao hem cang khdng phu thudc vao chfnh kdt qua hpc tap ma phu thudc vao dilu kien tai chfnh ciia cha me Cac cdp sau tiiu hpc la nhumg cap mang tfnh chdt phan biet vl mat xa hdi nhilu nhdt (Nolwen Henaff va Jean Yves Martin, 2001) Hdu hdt cac nghien cum diu cd mdt dilm chung cho rdng chi phi gian tidp va chi phf ca hdi la hai ydu id can trd viec tidp tuc di hpc ciia hpc sinh nhirng gia dinh cd mii'c sdng thdp hom Trong ra't nhilu hd ngheo, lao ddng ciia tre em cd gia trj hom nhilu so vdi viec tdi trudng Lgi fch dai han Clia giao due khdng ihl bii dap dugc nhumg tdn that vl thu nhap ngdn han (Bao cao Phat iriln Viet Nam, 2004) Nhiimg hd gia dinh ngheo nha't khdng thi dap irng nhumg nhu cdu tieu dimg hien tai neu khdng cd ngudn thu nhap lao ddng ire em mang Iai, vl vay hpc vdn ciia ire em va trien vpng ihoal ngheo phai nhudng chd cho sir ton lai trudc mdl (Ngan hang thdgidi 2007) Ngay ca tre em ngheo dugc di hpc ihl su suy dinh dudng, benh tat va nhiimg phi ton khac lien quan den viec hpc hanh vdn la nhihig thach thurc to ldn ngan can chiing den irudng va theo dudi cac bac hpc Mac dil chfnh sach xa hdi hda giao due cd nhirng lgi fch, nhung nhilu gia dinh ngheo thudng khdng dii kha nang trang trai phf tdn hgc dudng, ca em hp dugc miln hpc phf (Nhdm hanh ddng chd'ng ddi ngheo, 2002) Cac chi phf ca hdi ciia viec ma't Iao ddng tre em lam viec gia dinh cung ngan can cac hd gia dinh ngheo - nhumg ngudi ma cac chi phf ca hdi ldn han - ddu tu vao giao due, dac biet cho gai (ADB 2002) Ddi vdi cac hd ngheo d ndng thdn, ly bd hpc chii ydu va phd bien ciia hpc sinh la kinh te khd khan Hd cd mirc sd'ng cang thdp ihl cai cang hay bd hpc va di hpc mudn hom so vdi ludi (Nguyin Dure Vinh 2009) Nhilu nghien cum cho tha'y lhanh ihie'u nien dan tdc thiiu sd ft di hpc hem lhanh thieu nien ngudi Kmh la nhumg rao ciin vl ngheo ddi, phai iam viec, ca sd vat chat nha trudng thieu thdn va chdt lugng day hpc thdp .Mac du cac cap chinh quyin da cd nhilu cd gdng dl hda nhap cac nhdm dan ldc thie'u sd vao xu the chung kl ca viec miln hpc phi ciing nhu vice lap cac trudng ndi trii, viec di hpc ciia nhdm xa hdi vdn d miirc thap va Tran Quy Long 33 tinh trang mu chir vdn cdn d mvtc cao Md'i quan tam gin giir phuang thii'c san xua't vd cac dinh hudng van hda da tri thai dd ne tranh viec di hpc ciia cac nhdm dan tpc thiiu sd (Nolwen Henaff va Jean Yves Martin, 2001) Cac ty le nhap hpc thdp han d nhdm dan tdc thiiu sd la cac chi phi ca hdi va chi phf tiln mat cao han va thidu nhan thurc phu hgp vl giao due (ADB, 2002) Viec ngudi dan tpc thiiu sd sd'ng tap trung d cac vimg miln niii va ddng bang sdng Cuu Long lam cho hp gap phai nhumg khd khan dac thii rieng d nhumg viing (Nhdm hanh ddng chdng ddi ngheo, 2002) Nhin chung, nhumg sd lieu khao sat hoac nghien ciru trudc da cho thdy mdt vai khia canh vl tinh hinh thdi hpc ciia lhanh thidu nien Viet Nam Tuy nhien, han chd ca ban ciia cac nghien ciim la dan gian hda hanh ddng thdi hpc Clia thidu nien mdt su kien rdi sau dd tfnh toan tdn sud't xud't hien su kien d cac nhdm dac tnmg khac nhu gidi tfnh, phdn ddn tdc Cdn nhimg trudng hgp chua cd sir kien (chua thdi hpc) thi khdng dugc cac nghien curu dl cap den VI thd, nghien curu se dp diing md hinh nguy ca xac suat Cox dl cd gdng bd sung mdt phdn han chddd dua tren sd mdu cd tfnh dai dien tir sd lieu SAVY So lieu, dac diem bien so, ky thuat phan tich J So lieu Nghien cii^u sir dung sd lieu ciia cudc Dilu tra ve vj nien va nien Viet Nam ldn thii' hai (SAVY 2) nam 2009 Bd Y te va Tdng cue Thd'ng kd (TCTK) chii tri SAVY dugc tidn hanh vdi 10.044 thidu nien dd tudi 14-25 Phan bd mdu cua SAVY theo viing dja ly, dan tdc, tdn giao, nai cu trii, hay gidi tfnh cd su tuomg dong tuang ddi cao (Tdng cue Di\n sd - Ke hoach hda gia dinh va cac ca quan khac, 2010) Trong sd 10.044 thieu nien dugc khao sat, cd 240 ngudi chua bao gid di hgc nen sd khdng dugc dua vao mdu phan tfch Trong so 9.804 thidu nien da timg di hpc cd 4.984 ngudi da thdi hpc va sd tra ldi vl tudi thdi hpc la 4.969 ngudi Vdi nhumg trudng hgp chua xay sir kien thdi hpc (right censor) hoac khdng nhd tudi thdi hpc thi bidn sd phii thudc se bang tudi cua ngudi tra ldi tai ihdi diem khao sat 3.2 Bien sd Bie'n sd phu thupc dugc sir dung nghien cum la khoang thdi gian di hgc dugc bang sd nam de'n thdi diem thdi hpc ciia thieu nien Cdc bidn sd ddc lap bao gdm" hpc van va nghi nghiep ciia bd me, thdnh phdn ddn tdc, sd lugng anh chi em ciia thidu nien (khdng tfnh 34 Nghien ciiru Gia dinh va Gidi Quyen 23 sd 2, tr 29-42 ban than ngudi tra ldi va nhumg ngudi da mat) va mure sd'ng ciia gia dinh Hpc vdn cua bd me thidu nien dugc xay dung mdt bidn kdt hgp giira hpc vdn bd' va hpc van me vdi cac nhdm: ldp 0-5 (bao gdm ca nhumg trudng hgp khuydt thieu), ldp 6-9, bd hoac me cd hpc van iir 10 den dai hpc va ca hai cd hpc van tir ldp 10 den dai hpc Nhdm lhanh thie'u nien cd bd me vdi hpc vdn ldp 0-5 dugc dimg dl so sanh vdi cdc nhdm khac Bidn sd nghi nghiep ciia bd me thidu nien dugc xay dung mdt bidn ludng phan vdi gia tri bdng I ndu ca hai lam nghi lao ddng gian dan va bang cho nhiimg irudng hgp khac Cung nhu nhilu cudc khao sal khac, SAVY khdng ludng vl miirc sdng gia dinh trudc ihdi dilm thdi hpc cua lhanh thie'u nien VI the, nghien ciim ap dung khudn mdu cua cac nghien cum khdc nhdm cd gdng han chd khidm khuydt bdng each su dung bidn sd ludng sd hum nhiimg Ioai tai san gia dinh ciia thidu nien tai thdi dilm khao sal nhu la mdt bidn sd xdp xi vl miirc sdng gia dinh vdi gia dinh la khdng thay ddi nhilu trudc thdi diem thdi hpc ciia lhanh thie'u nien Bidn so dugc xay dimg vdi gia trj phan Ioai gdm mirc sd'ng thap, lrung binh va cao, dd gia tri miirc sd'ng ihap dugc chgn iam nhdm so sanh Vdi nhumg bie'n sd kilm soat, md hinh phan tfch se dua vao nhumg dac trung nhan khdu hpc - xa hpi cd thi anh hudng ddn su tac ddng ciia cac ydu td gia dinh ddn tudi thdi hpc ciia thidu nien Cac bien sd kilm soat cd the anh hudng den su lac ddng cua cac ye'u id gia dinh den thdi diem thdi hpc ciia lhanh thieu nien ihdng qua anh hudng ciia su dap img nhu cdu vl hpc tap, trinh dp phat triln kinh te, su ngheo ddi, tfnh sdn cd hoac thai dd dd'i vdi giao due Nhiimg bidn sd kilm soat se bao gdm gidi tfnh, nhdm nam sinh, nai cu trii va vimg dia ly 3.3 Ky thugt phdn tich Phuang phap phan tfch sd'ng (sumval analysis) dugc su dung nhdm phan tfch cac loai sd lieu phan anh dp dai thdi gian ma dd'i tugng nghien cihi d mdt trang thai nao va chuyin hod sang trang thai khac (time to event), nghien cum dd la khoang thdi gian tir sinh de'n tuoi thdi hoc ciia thie'u nien Dua tren sd lieu lich sir hoc va'n ciia lhanh thieu nien SAVY 2, hai ky thuat dugc diing phuang phap phan tfch sd'ng la udc lugng Kaplan-Meier va md hinh nguy ca xac sudl Cox (Cox Proportional Hazard Model) se dugc sudung Thii luc udc luang Kaplan-Meier vd kilm dinh Log-rank vl su gid'ng giOa cac gia tri cua bidn sd ddc lap ddi vdi xac sudt xay su kien ciia bidn phii thudc thudng Tran Quy Long 35 dugc ap dung trudng hgp phan tfch hai bie'n va dd'i vdi nhumg bidn sd giai thfch cd tfnh chdt phan loai Md hinh nguy ca xac suat Cox dugc d&ng phdn phan tfch da bien nhdm ludng tac ddng thudn tiiy ciia bidn sd ddc lap ddn xac sua't thdi hpc theo timg dp tudi ciia thidu nien Md hinh cd gia tri d chd la nd cd thi phan tfch bao gdm ca nhumg trudng hgp chua xay su kien Ket qua nghien ciiru Kdt qua phan tfch bang sdng bdng dd thi dugc trinh bay d bieu I vl xac sudt "chua thdi hpc" ciia thidu nien cho ddn dd ludi tiep theo Theo ke't qOa phan tfch, tudi thdi hpc ciia thieu nien nhd nhdt la va keo dai ddn 25 tudi (tudi gidi han cudi ciing cua mdu khao sat) Xac suat ciia nhumg ca nhan thidu nien chua bao gid thdi hpc trudc tudi cd gid tri bang I, xac sudt ndy se giam theo sd lugng thidu nien thdi hgc d lirng dd tudi Dudng d6 thi giam nhanh nhdm 15-20 tudi va giam cham cho ddn 25 tudi Tren dd thi, xac sua't thdi hpc tuang img vdi cdc thdi dilm 15; 18 va 22 tudi la 0,76; 0,43 va 0,18 Nhu vay, tai cac thdi dilm chuyin tidp tir trung hpc ca sd ien trung hpc phd thdng hoac tdt nghiep trung hpc phd thdng la nhumg diem mdc thdi hpc dang chii ^ ciia thieu nien Nghien cum da tie'n hanh phan tfch hai bidn bang each thuc hien udc lugng Kaplan-Meier va kiem djnh log-rank giira timg bien sd dpc lap dd'i vdi bidn sd phiJ thudc Kdt qua cho thdy cac ydu td ciia gia dinh nhu hpc va'n bd me, nghi nghiep bd me, phdn dan tdc, sd lugng anh chi em va mijrc sd'ng gia dinh cd anh hudng de'n thdi diem thdi hpc ciia thieu nien Theo dOy nhdm thidu nien co bd me vdi hpc va'n cao han ldp Bleu Xac suat thoi hoc ciia thie'u nien chia theo tudi Kaplan-M eier survival estim ate 10 ts analysis time 20 25 36 Nghien curu Gia dinh va Gidi Quyen 23, sd 2, tr 29-42 Bieu Xac suat thoi hoc timg tudi cua thieu nien chia theo nghe nghiep bd me o o -I Kaplan-Meier survival estimates IO o m o •n o o -I —1 10 1— 15 analysis lime Nghe BM = Khac —r— 20 25 Nghe BM = LOGO 0-5, bd me khdng phai lam nghi gian dan, la dan tdc Kinh, cd sd lugng anh chi em ft hem va gia dinh cd mijrc sd'ng kha han ihi cd dp tudi thdi hpc ldn hom (khdng trinh bdy ket qua d day) Bilu dd la vf du minh hpa su khac vl thdi dilm thdi hpc ciia lhanh thie'u nien theo nghi nghiep cua bd me thdng qua ihu luc udc lugng Kaplan-Meier bdng dd thi Dudng "chua thdi hpc" theo dp tudi cua nhdm thidu nien cd ca hai bd me khdng lam nghi Iao ddng gian dan ndm tren vd cd khoang each kha ldn so vdi dudng "chua thdi hpc" ciia nhdm cd bd me lam nghi lao ddng gian dan (dudng net durt) Dilu cd nghia la lhanh thieu men d gia dinh ma ca hai bd me Iam nghi Iao ddng gian dan phai lir bd hpc vdn sdm han so vdi thieu nien ma ca hai bd me khdng lam nghi lao ddng gian dan Ket qua udc lugng bang sd'ng cho thdy 39,4% va 62,5% thieu nien tucmg umg d nhdm bd me lam nghi khac va bd me lam nghi lao ddng gian dan da thdi hpc d tudi 18 Qua dd cho thdy, thie'u nien gia dinh cd bd me khdng Iam nghi Iao ddng gian dan thdi hpc d Ma ludi cao han va cd ihl thdi hpc sau td't nghiep dai hpc Ket qua kilm djnh cho thay su khac giira hai nhdm nghi nghiep ciia bd me dd'i vdi xac sudl thdi hpc d timg dp tudi ciia thieu nien rdt cd y nghia thdng ke (log-rank test = 358,60; p < 0,001) Phdn tich da bien Bang trinh bay kel qua udc lugng bdng md hinh hdi quy ngu>' ca xac sual Cox nhdm tim hieu xac suat thdi hpc d iCmg dd ludi ciia thidu 37 Tran Quy Long Bang I Tac dong ciia cac ydu td gia dinh ddi vdi xac suat thoi hoc theo tudi cue thieu nien (Mo hinh nguy ca xac suat Cox) Mo hmh Yeu to 0,93** 0,93** 0.93** 0,93** 0.92** 1991-1994 (nhom so sanh) 1,00 1,00 1.00 1,00 1,00 1987-1990 1,56*** 1,56**^ 1,53*** 1,52*** 1,57*** 1983-1986 1,58*** 1.57*** 1.50*** 1,56*** 1,37*** 1.31*** 1.50*** 21*** 1,26*** 1,15*** DB s6ng H6ng (nh6m so sanh) 1,00 1,00 1.00 1.00 1,00 Mi6n niii phia bdc 1.24*** 1.18** UI 1.07 Trung bo 0,95 0,90** 0,9*" 0,84*** Tay Nguyen 1.48*** 0,94 |^y*«* 1.34"** 1,31*** 1,20** {)6ng Nam b6 1,36*** 1.37*** 1.31*** 1,30*** 1,33*** D6ng bang s6ng CiJru Long 1,42*** 1.40*** 1.3.5*** 1.3.5*** 1,29*** 1^0-5 1,00 1,00 1.00 1,00 1,00 Ldp 6-9 0.63*** 0,63*** 0.66*** 0,67=^** 0.71*** Bo hoac mc = Ldfp 6-9 0,45*** 0,47-** 0.49*** 0,.50*** 0,55*** ]Jtp\0+ 0,28*** 0.31*** 0.33*** 0,33*** J 22**=^ 1,21*** 0.38*** 1.05*** 1,05*** 0,91** 1,08 Giui tinh (nur) Nhom ndm sinh Niri cir tru (nong thon) Khu vuc dia ly lli;e:%c;!f « ^ ^ Hoc van bii mc T^*** 1.15*** Nghe bo me = lao dong gian don — So anh chj cm ruot — Dan toe Kinh — — Thdp(nh6msosanh) — — — 1.00 Tning binh — — 0.76*** Cao — — 0.53*** 1.05*** Mijrc song gia dinh — Log lilvclihood -40460 -40442 -40411 -40409 -40249 Time at risk 160009 160009 159973 1599.54 159795 (N) (9803) (9803) (9801) (9800) (9791) Ghi chu: Mirc y nghia thdng ke: ** p < 0,05, *** p < 0,001 — Khdng ap dung 38 Nghien curu Gia dinh va Gidi Quyen 23, so 2, tr 29-42 nien SAVY Ti sudt nguy ca (hazard ratio-HR) dugc dimg dl so sanh vl xac sua't thdi hgc cua thieu nien theo timg dd tudi cua mdt nhdm phan tfch so vdi nhdm dugc diing lam thaim khao mdi bidn sd dpc lap Ndu ti suat nguy ca ldn hem cho bidt nhdm thieu nien vdi dac trung nao dd cd kha nang "chua thdi hpc" thdp hom so vdi nhdm so sanh; ngugc lai gia tri cua ti suat nguy ca nhd hem cho bidt rdng nhdm thieu nien vdi dac trung khac tri hpc van lau hom so vdi nhdm so sanh Md hinh phan tfch da bien bang thii tuc Cox cho thdy cac bidn sd kilm soat cd mdl quan he vdi tudi thoi hpc ciia lhanh thieu men va diu cd J nghia thdng ke d tdt ca cac md hinh Theo ket qua udc lugng, thidu nien nil cd khoang thdi gian di hpc dai hom nam gidi; ndi each khdc, nam thidu nien cd nguy ca thdi hpc sdm hom nu" Thanh thidu nien d hai nhdm nam sinh 1987-1990 va 1983-1986 cd ti sua't nguy ca thdi hpc cao han so vdi nhdm cd nam smh 1991-1994, dilu dd chimg td rdng nhdm lhanh thie'u nien dugc sinh nhumg nam gan ddy cang cd kha nang dugc tap trung cho viec tri hpc van lau han Thanh thidu nien cu trii d khu vuc ndng thdn cd khoang thdi gian di hpc ngdn hom so vdi thie'u nien d khu vuc thj Kdt qua phan tfch mpt lan nira khang djnh "uu the thi" ctia nhdm thidu nien cu tru d khu vuc viec tri hpc va'n Ngugc lai, nhilu thieu nien d ndng thdn khdng thi hoan chuang trinh giao due cac khd khan ve kinh te va nhu cdu phai lao dpng de hd trg thu nhap cho gia dinh Thanh thieu nien d cac viing khac diu cd ti suat nguy ca thdi hpc cao hem nien d ddng bang sdng Hdng, ngoai trir khu \arc Trung bd, dieu cho thdy phong trao theo dudi hpc van ciia thidu nien vdn tri tdt d hai viing Tham chf, kha nang tri hpc vdn cua thieu nien d khu vtrc Trung bd cdn cao hom so vdi ddng bang sdng Hdng d md hinh Sau cd djnh su anh hudng cQa cac bien sd kilm soat va bien sd dpc lap khac tiimg md hinh, bien sd hpc va'n bd me vdn tri md'i lien he chat che va cd y nghia thd'ng ke vdi nguy ca thdi hpc theo timg dd tudi ctia thieu nien Ket qua phan tfch d md hinh cudi cimg (md hinh 5) cho thdy hpc van ciia ca bd va me cao hom thi ti suat nguy ca thdi hpc cua thidu nien thap han So vdi nhdm bd me cd hpc vdn Idp 0-5, ti sudt nguy ca thdi hpc ciia thieu nien cd bd me vdi hpc va'n ldp 6-9 thdp hom 29%, dd ti sua'l nguy ca thdi hpc ciia thieu nien nhdm cd bd hoac me vdi hpc van ldp 10 trd len tha'p hom 45% va ti sudt nguy ca thdi hpc ciia nhdm cd ca bd va me cd hpc va'n tir ldp 10 ddn dai hpc tha'p hom 62% Tran Quy Long 39 Cling mdt gidi ifnh, nhdm nam sinh, nai cu trii, trinh dd hpc vdn ciia bd me, dan tdc, sd' lugng anh chj em rudt va mirc sdng nhumg thieu nien cd ca hai bd' me diu lam nghi lao ddng gian dan ihl cd nguy ca thdi hpc cao han nhdm thieu nien cd bd' me vdi dac dilm nghi nghiep khac Md hinh ciia bang cho thdy, so vdi nhdm thieu nien cd ca hai bd me cd loai hinh nghi nghiep khac, nhdm thie'u nien cd bd me vdi nghi nghiep gian dan cd nguy ca thdi hpc cao han 15% Sd lugng anh chi em gia dinh va thdi dilm thdi hpc ciia thidu nien cd md'i quan he cung chilu vdi Kdt qua phan tfch d md hinh ciia bang cho thay, them mpt anh chi em gia dinh thi kha nang thdi hpc d timg dd tudi ciia thieu nien tang ien 5% Nhu vay, cd thi tha'y quy md hd gia dinh ldn la mpt nhumg yeu td can trd su tri hpc va'n va ldm cho thidu nien thdi hpc sdm hom Md hinh ciia bang udc lugng md'i quan he giura phdn dan tdc vdi nguy ca thdi hpc ciia thieu nien Sau cd dinh su anh hudng Clia cac bien sd kliac cd md hinh, bidn sd' dan tpc Kinh van cd anh hudng den thdi dilm thdi hpc ciia thieu nien NghTa la, thidu nien ngudi Kinh cd khoang thdi gian di hpc dai hom so vdi thidu nien dan tdc thieu sd va sir khac biet cd y nghia thd'ng ke (HR = 0,91, p < 0,05) Qua dd cho thay, dan tdc thiiu sd vdn la mdt nhdm xa hdi chiu nhilu thiet thdi va rdt cdn sir hd trg nhilu hem nu:a vl mat chfnh sach ITnh \'Uc giao due Tuy nhien, dua bien sd mii'c sdng gia dinh vao md hinh cudi ciing thi mdi quan he giira bien sd dan tpc Kinh va xac suat thdi hpc d timg dd tudi ciia thidu nien khdng cdn cd y nghTa thdng ke Cd thi anh hudng cua su cdng tuydn giira hai bie'n sd nay, cd nghTa la hdu hdt thidu nien ngudi Kinh sdng gia dinh cd mii'c sdng trung binh hoac cao va ngugc lai thieu nien ngudi dan tdc khac sdng dilu kien gia dinh cd mii:c sdng thap Mdi quan he giira tinh trang kinh id va ca hdi giao due ciia lhanh thieu nien la rdt rd rang va mure sdng cao hem ihi xac suat tri hpc dudng cao han tfnh ddn su tac ddng ciia cac bien sd khac cd md hinh Nhu dugc dua d md hinh cudi ciing ciia bang 1, so vdi nhdm thieu nien gia dinh cd miic sd'ng thdp, ti sudt nguy ca thdi hpc ciia nhdm thidu nien gia dinh cd mirc sdng lrung binh la 0,76 va giam xudng 0,52 d nhdm lhanh thidu nien gia dinh cd mure sd'ng cao, Nhu vav, so vdi nhdm thidu nien gia dinh mure sdng thdp, xac suat thdi hpc d lumg dd tudi ciia thie'u nien gia dinh cd mirc sdng trung binh \'a cao ldn lugt thdp hom 24% va 47% 40 Nghien ciiru Gia dinh va Gidi Quyen 23, sd 2, tr 29-42 Thao luan va Ket luan Duy tri va nang cao trinh dd giao due la chia khoa cho sir phat triln lien iuc Ben canh nhumg lgi fch true tidp cd lien quan den ddu tu vao vdn nhan luc, nhilu nghien ciim chi rang ddu tu vao giao due la vdn di cdt ldi de thoat khdi ngheo ddi Nhiimg ngudi cd giao due cao cd kha nang tao ihu nhap cao hom lir lao ddng ciia hp va cd thi sir dung tdt han lgi fch lir thu nhap (Indu Bhushan \a nhihig ngudi khac, 2001) Cd hpc vdn cao hom se giiip cho budc chuyin tiep sang giai doan di lam dugc thuan lgi han va ddn den nhilu cdng han cudc sd'ng, ndu thdi hpc sdm se khdng giiip thidu nien Viet Nam Iam dugc dilu dd Kel qua SAVY cho thay xac sudt thdi hpc ciia lhanh thidu nien tang ddn theo dp tudi, dac biet la tai thdi dilm chuyen tidp ttr Trung hpc ca sd len Trung hpc phd thdng hoac td't nghiep Trung hpc phd thdng Ngudi ta cdn hoc hdt ldp cudi cdp trung hpc phd thdng di cd mdt mure kidn thurc td't, du dl hiiu cac vdn dl vl cdng nghe, xa hdi va kinh tddang diln cudc sdng; td't nghiep lrung hpc phd thdng cung giiip cho viec ap dung cac kidn thurc vao cudc sd'ng hang (Vd Thanh San va nhihig ngudi khac, 2001) Giao due ca sd la nin tang dl phat triln cac ky nang linh hoat vd'n rdt cdn thiet dl tham gia vdo cac hoat ddng kinh td cd ham lugng chdt xam cao Nhiimg khdng co dilu kien tidp can de'n giao due ca sd cd nguy ca bi loai khdi nhumg ca hdi mdi (Ngan hang thdgidi, 2001) Nghien cihi cho tha'y cac ye'u td lien quan den gia dinh cd mdi quan he chat che vdi viec tri hanh trinh hpc van ciia thidu nien Gia dinh cd ca bd vd me vdi hpc vdn cao han thi thidu nien cd khoang thdi gian di hpc dai han so vdi nhdm cd bd me vdi trinh dd hpc vdn ldp 05 Tuomg tu, nhdm cd bd me vdi nghi nghiep khdng phai Iao ddng gian dan cd kha nang thdi hpc mudn hom so vdi nhdm cd bd me lam nghi lao ddng gian dan Dieu ham y rdng, cac nguyen vpng mong mudn cai cd hpc van cao hom dugc dan xen vdi cac hy vpng vl su di ddng xa hdi dl ien dl cd mdt cudc sd'ng chat luang han cd ve la mdt su giai thfch phii hgp cho viec thieu nien irl vh cd hpc vdn cao han gia dinh cd bd me vdi hpc vdn cao han hoac ca bd va me khdng lam nghi gian dan (Trdn Quy Long, 2009) Sd lugng anh chj em gia dinh cd md'i quan he vdi khoang thdi gian di hpc cua thieu nien Ndu gia dinh cd them mdt anh chj em thi kha nang tri viec hpc cua thieu nien cang giam Kel qua ham y rdng quy md gia dinh cd kha nang anh hudng den vice iri hpc vdn ciia ihieu nien ihdng qua anh hudng ciia tinh trang ddng Tran Quy Long 41 ngudi nen cdn phai cat giam chi phf hpc tap va huy ddng thie'u nien tham gia lam viec nhdm phat sinh them thu nhap Thudng se cd mpt sd em phai hy sinh quyin lgi dem trudng cua minh cho nhumg dua tre khac nhiimg gia dinh cd nhilu tudi de'n trudng (Nhdm hanh ddng chdng ddi ngheo, 2002) Hai ydu td chi phf sir dung dich vu (hpc phf, sach vd, cac khoan ddng gdp ) va thu nhap diu cd anh hudng den hanh vi ciia gia dinh vice tri hoc va'n cho thieu nien Trong bdi canh dd, gia dinh cang cd vai trd quan trpng han vl nd quydt djnh viec phan bd ngudn luc cho cac thdnh vien VI thd, mii'c sdng va khoang thdi gian di hpc ciia thie'u nien cd md'i quan he chat che vdi Dilu cung cd nghTa rdng viec tidp can va tri hpc van ciia thieu nien phu thupc nhieu hom vao dilu kien kinh td gia dinh Van dl can quan tam d day la ne'u cac chfnh sach vl giao due khdng dugc xay dung hudng den nhdm ngirdi ngheo va thiet thdi thi su khac biet vl giao due giira cac nhdm thieu nien cd hoan canh xa hdi khac se tidp tuc tri Nhdm hanh ddng chd'ng ddi ngheo (2002) phan tfch rang, viec khdng tao ca hpi cho mpi ngudi dugc quyin tiep can giao due mpt each binh ddng se han che nhiimg nd lire pha'n da'u cai thien sure khde va phiic lgi, han che vice tang them nhirng ca hdi vuan tdi mpt cupc sdng bu'u fch hom va thiic day xa hdi phat trien mdt xa hdi doan kel, dan chii, cd nhirng quyin cdng dan tdi thiiu khac Bdo cdo gidm sat Giao due cho mpi ngudi ciia UNESCO (2008) lai khdng djnh, ndu cac chfnh sach vl giao due ciia Viet Nam khdng dugc xay dung hudng tdi tre em ngheo va thiet thdi, tinh trang bat binh dang xa hdi se trd nen trdm trpng han chat lugng giao due thap \'a cac he thdng trudmg ldp phan hod rd ret Mdi gia dinh la mdt lieu van hda khac va la dem vj kinh te ca ban ciia san xudt hoac tieu diing, cac quyet djnh hoac hanh vi vl giao due diu dugc thuc hien gia dinh Sir tham gia ciia cac bac bd me vao viec tri hgc va'n ciia thieu nien dugc ihl hien qua nhihig mdi quan tam, ndng cao nhu cdu di hpc va tinh than trach nhiem, tao ap luc viec tich luy hpc va'n cho cai Ngoai ra, nd cdn bao ham ca su bat binh ddng xa hdi ngodi giao due, day la nguyen nhan sau xa ciia nhumg bat binh ddng xa hdi giao due Mirc sdng thap kem cd thi la md'i de doa ldn nha't vdi viec thuc hidn iri hpc van ciia ihie'u nicn.B Th\ lieu tham khao ADB 2002 Phu mid Viet Nam Ha Npi 42 Nghien curu Gia dinh va Gidi Quyen 23, sd 2, tr 29-42 Bao cao phat trien Viet Nam 2004 Ngheo Bao cao chung cua cac nha lai irg Ha Npi Bo Giao due - Dao lao va cac ccr quan khac 2008 Chuyen tiep ne em gdi ngifdi ddn tpc thieu sd tif tien hpc ten tritng hpc casd General Statistics Office 2011 Vietnam Population and Housing Census 2009: Education in Vietnam: An analysis of key Indicators Ha Noi Indu Bhushan va nhihig ngudi khac 2001 Vdn nhdn life ciia ngifdi ngheo dVict Nam: Tinh hinh vd cdc lifa clwn ve chinh sdch Ngan hang phat triln chau A va Bp Lao dpng Thucfng binh - xa hpi Ha Npi Ngan hang thdgidi 2001 Difa vdn de gidi vdo phdt trien Nha xudt ban Van hodThong tin Ha Npi Ngan hang the gidi 2007 Bdo cdo phdt trien the'gidi 2007: Phdt trien vd the he kecdn Nha xuat ban Van hoa Thong tin Ha Noi Nguyin Dure Vinh 2009 "Tac dpng cua cac yeu id ca nhan va gia dinh den linh trang di hpc cua cua tre em va nien a nong thon" Tgp chi Xd hpi hpc, (sd4),tr 26-43 Nhom hanh dpng chdng doi ngheo 2002 Cnng cdp gido due ca ban cd chdt luang cho mpi ngifdi Bao cao chung cua cac nha tai trp Ha Noi Nolwen Henaff va Jean Yves Martin 2001 Td chifc lgi nen kinh teva cacau lgi xd hoi, Nolwen Henaff vd Jean Yves Martin (cb) Lao dpng, viec ldm vd nguon nhdn life dViet Nam 15 ndm Ddi mdi Nha xuat ban The gidi Ha N6i Ting cue Dan sd - Ke hoach hoa gia dinh va cac ccf quan khac 2010 Dieu tra qudc gia ve vi thdnh men vd nien \ iet Nam ldn thif Ha Ndi Trdn Quy Long 2009 "Tre em va su tham gia lao dpng dong gop thu nhap cho gia dinh" Tgp chi Nghien cifu Gia dinh vd Gidi, (sd 4) tr 44-55 TrUdng Thi Kim Chuyen va nhQng ngudi khac 1999 Yen td dnh hifdng de'n di hoc cap II, Dominique Haughton yd nhCfng ngifdi khdc, (cb) Ho gia dinh \ 'let Nam nhin qua phdn fich dinh lifpng Nha xuat ban Chfnh trj qudc gia Ha Npi UNESCO 2008 Bdo cdo gidm sdt todn cdu gido due cho mpi ngifdi: Gido due cho mpi ngifdi muc tieu cd dgt difpc vdo ndm 2015? (Bao cao tom tat) Paris UNFPA 2005 Tinh trgng ddn sd the gidi 2005 - Ldi hifa ve cdng bdng, binh ddng gidi, sifc khde sinh sdn vd cdc Muc tieu Phdt trien Thien nien ky UNFPA 2011 Thanh nien Viet Nam: Tdm tdt mpt sd chi sd thd'ng ke tif Tong dieu tra Ddn sdvd Nhd dViet Nam ndm 2009 Ha Npi UNICEF Viet Nam 2008 Phdn tich tinh hinh tre em d Viet Nam sif dung cdch tie'p can difa vdo quyen Ha Npi Vo Thanh Son va nhung ngudi khac 2001 Di hpc vd bd Iwc cua hpc sinh, D Hcmghton vd nhCfng ngifdi khdc (cb), Mifc sdng thdi ky bimg nd kinh teViet Nam Nha xudt ban Thdng ke Ha Noi  ... kl miirc dp tiep can giao due ca ban ciia thidu nien Miirc dp tiep can vdi giao due mdt tang ddng nghia vdi viec cac hd gia dinh va ban than thieu nien da nhan thiire dugc giao due la mdt ddu... ly giai thfch tam quan trpng ciia viec giam ty le bd hpc ciia hpc sinh Bd hpc se lam cho viec ddu tu vao giao due trd nen khdng hieu qua muc tieu hpc hanh de''n nai den chdn khdng dat dugc (Vd Thanh. .. Vinh, 2009; Vd Thanh Son va nhumg ngudi khac, 2001) Neu nhirng ngudi ldn gia dinh dugc hudng su giao due td''t, hp cd kha nang am hiiu lot hem vl each thiire tan dung cac dich vu giao due Vl ban