Phân tích một số tác động tới thời gian đào tạo tối ưu

,,(t Phdng Xuan Nh^ & Pham XuSn Hoan T^ip chi PhSt Uiin Kinh te 27(5) 02-16 Phan tich mot so tac dong toi thoi gian dao tao toi iru PHtiNG XUAN NHA Dai hoc Quoc gia Ha Noi - nhapx@vnu.edu.vn PHAM XUAN HOAN Dai hoc Quoc gia HaNfli - pxhoan@vnu.edu.vn Ngay nhdn: 01/04/2016 Ngay nhgn lai: 26/04/2016 Ngay duyet dang: 12/05/2016 Ma so: 0416-I22-V01 Tom tat Bai viet dung tren goc kinh te &k nghiSn cihi m6i quan hS giOa thai gian di hgc toi uu vai mot so yeu t6 xa hoi, nham cung cap ttiSm co sa khoa tigc de xem xet cac y kien ve viec nang tu6! nghi huu, nit ngan thai gian dao tao thong, thai gian dao tao dai hgc da va dang xuit hiSn tai VN Ket qua nghiSn ciiu cho thiy nSu nSng tu6i nghi huu thi nen keo dai then gian di hgc; neu cai thiSn dirge hiSu qua quan trj giao due thi nSn nit ngan thai gian di hgc; vk neu cai thien duoc vai tro cua giao due d6i voi thi truong lao dflng cung nhu ndng sudt lao dong thi nSn keo dai thcri gian di hgc Abstract Tu khoa This paper studies the relation between the optimal schooling duration and a number of social factors in order to provide a scientific basis for assessment of some proposals that have been being raised recently in jy Vietnam such as raising the retirement age, cutting the studying time, and so on The paper concludes that in case of increased retirement Keywords age, it is imperative that the schooling duration be lengthened, whereas in case of improved efficiency in education administration Schooling duration, human capital, education and greater contribution of education to the workforce and productivity, it is necessary to reduce and increase the number of administration, schooling years, respectively employment Thoi gian di tigc, v6n nhan tuc, quan tri giao due, viSc lam ;(^, I , Phong Xuan Nha & Ph^m XuSn Hoan Tap chi Phat tnen Kinh 1^, 27(5) 02-16 Dat van de Deri song ciia ngirai thuang duoc chia lam ba giai doan chfnh: Thai gian di hpc tfch luy kien thuc, thai gian lam viec tao cua cai cho xa hpi va cu6i ciang la thM gian nghi huu Thai gian di hoc truac ,buac vao tuoi lao dpng la rit quan trpng VS mat xa hoi, hpc tap giiip nguai biet each huang thu cupc s6ng mpt each lanh manh, nhu biet dpc truyen, biet nghe nhac, biet chung s6ng voi nhirng nguai xung quanh, v.v VS mat kinh te, hpc tap la can thiet de nang cao nang luc ca nhan, nang cao nang suit lao dpng va thu nhap sau nay, hoan tra lai cac chi phf da phat sinh giai doan hpc tap Xet tren phuang dien xa hpi thi kh6ng co gi6i han nao cho hpc tap, vi cang hpc cang hieu biet nhieu, cang biet each huong thu cupc song mot each lanh manh, biSt song hai hoa hon vai xa hpi va thien nhien, v.v Tuy nhien, xet tren phuong dien kinh te thi se co mpt "diem dimg" toi uu cho giai doan hoc tSp: Neu thofi gian hpc tap dai hon, thi xu huong la chat lupng nguon nhan luc tang len, nang suat lao dpng se tang len; nhimg thoi gian lai de lao dong san xuat tao cua cai vat chat se ngan hon; nhu vay, khong phai cu hpc cang dai, hpc cang nhieu la cang tot, xet ve mat kinh te Do vay, dung tren phuong dien kinh te rat can nghien cuu ve lmh vuc thoi gian dao tao toi uu Ozcan va cpng sy (2000) cho rang thai gian hpc tSp toi im cua ngudi dupc xac dinh bang cong thuc s = \j{r + p); do: p la ti le sinh cua quoc gia va r la mat bang ve lai suat Tuy nhien, nhin chung cac nghien cuu lmh vuc chua nhieu, a VN thi hoan toan chua co Gan day, tai VN da xuat hien nhieu y kien nen giam thoi gian hpc thong, cijng nhu thai gian hpc dai hpc Bay la cac dk xnkt rat dang quan tam, dya tren nhiing phan tich tuang doi xac dang Tuy nhien, chua co cac nghien cuu thyc su chuyen sau, va chua CO CO sa khoa hpc thyc su dii tin criy de co the dinh huong chi'nh sach ITnh vyc Ngay nay, VN da va dang xuat hien nhieu nhan to mai co the tac dpng toi thoi gian di hpc t6i uu cua nguoi Thu nh3t, tu6i thp nguoi VN da va dang tang len, tao sure ep vk mat kinh te va cho phep v6 mat th6 lyc de tang tuoi nghi huu Cau hoi dat la b6i canh nhu vay, nen rut ngan hay keo dai thoi gian di hpc? Quan trj giao due cua VN chua dugc tien tien nhu cac nuoc phat trien, nhu vay du dia nhieu de cai thien, xu huong thi nen rut ngan hay keo dai thoi gian di hpc? Giao due luon co vai tro rit quan trpng viec hinh nguon von nhan lyc, tang nang suat lao dpng Tuy nhien, duong nhu xa hp! cho rang giao due VN chua thyc su gan tot vai thi truong PhCing Xuan Nhj & Ph^m Xuan Hoan Tsp chl Phat tnen Kmh t^, 27(5), 02-16 lao dpng; vi vay, chua phat huy h6t vai tro cua giao due doi vai thj truong lao dgng, cung nhu nang suat lao dpng Vay neu thai gian toi VN lam tot hon dugc viec thi nen rut ng5n hay keo dai thai gian di hpc? Nghien cuu thuan dung tren phuong dien kinh te, tap trung xem xet vi6c tim cau tra loi cho cac cau hoi tren; cu the, de co lgi nhat ve mat kinh te thi nen nit ngan hay keo dai thai gian hpc tap, tuoi nghi huu tang len, hieu qua quan tri giao due dugc cai thien, giao due dao tao gan t6t hon voi thi truong lao d6ng va gop phan cao hon nua nang cao nang suat lao dong; vdi muc tieu de Chinh phii tham khao hoach djnh chinh sach Mpt \kn nOa xin dugc luu f, keo dai hay nit ngan thdi gian hpc tap can dugc xem xet kT luong tren nhieu phuang dien, co phuang dien xa hpi, phuang dien van hoa, v.v nhien, tac gia tu giai han d viec thuan nghien ciiu tren phucmg dien toi uu hoa ve mat kinh te Khung li thuyet va xay dung mo hinh Nghien cOru ung dung cac li thuyet hien hanh de xay dung mo hinh toi uu hoa; theo do, moi cgng dong tat ca nhung ngudi ciing sinh mgt nam nao d6 (trong nghien cihi nay, thong nhat gpi tat la "Cpng d6ng ngudi" chpn so nam di hpc toi uu de t6l da hoa phan chenh lech givta tong san lugng ma "Cpng dong ngudi" se san xuat dugc suot thdi gian lao dpng san xuat vdi tong cac chi phf phat sinh, bao gom chi phi cho von hiiu hinh (may moc thiet bi) de san xuat va chl phi hpc tap de hinh nguon von nhan lyc Cu the, mo hinh dugc phat trien nhu sau: Gia su m§i "Cgng dong ngudi" sinh d nam 0, di hpc m nam, r6i sau di lam tir nam m +1 tdi tuoi nghi huu p DT nhien, thyc te thi khong the mpi ca nhan "Cpng dong ngudi" deu giong nhau; vf du d VN, nam gidi nghi huu d tudi 60 cdn nir nghi huu d tuoi 55, CO ngudi hpc cao, co ngudi hpc thap Tuy nhien, cac md hinh kinh te deu phai dya tren cac gia thiet nhat dinh cho de hieu, miln la Ichdng lam sai lech y nghTa ciia mo hinh Khai niem "di hgc" nghien cuu duac hieu mgt each rat linh hoat nhu quan diSm cua Heckman (2004), Cunha va cgng su (2005), chii khong hi6u mgt each cling nhac "di hpc" cd nghTa ia phai dkn trudng Vf du, cac em be so sinh thi hoan toan khong den trudng hgc, nhung gia dinh cham soc day dd dudi nhiSu hinh thuc khac nhau, nen xet tren phuang dien toan xa hpi, thi day vSn la thdi ki ca nhan "di hgc", xa hgi van Phdng Xuan Nha & Pham Xuan Hoan Tap chl Phat trien Kinh Ic, 27(5), 02-16 phai dau tu de nuoi dudng va day d§ cac be Khai niem "di hgc" d day chi co gia tri co hgc de phan biet vdi thdi ki tham gia luc lugng san xuit sau Ki hieu Y^ la san lugng "Cgng dong ngudi" san xuat namy, lai suat thj trudng la r thi tdng san lugng "Cong dong ngudi" san xuit toan b6 thdi gian lao dpng san xuat, tinh chiet khau theo gia tri hien tai vao nam dau budc vao tuoi lao dpng se la: Y"""' =r„.+ (1 + r ) ' ^—rY„,^.-\- -\J^ (l + r ) — " rY (1) Gia sir, san lugng ma "Cgng dong ngudi" san xuat tuan thu theo ham san xuat Cobb-Douglas vdn rat bien kinh te hgc, vdi hai dau vao la ngudn von va nguon nhan lyc, nhu da dugc su dung cac mo hinh ciia rat nhieu nghien cuu; vi du Jones (2002), Mankiw va cdng su (1992) hoac Bills va Klenow (2000), v.v la: Y^=KJHl-'' (2) Vdi j = m + \,m + 2, ,p; nghta la phuang trinh (2) phan anh diing thuc te la "Cgng dong ngudi" chi san xuat ciia cai vat chat giai doan d dp tuoi lao dpng, khong san xuat ciia cai vat ehat d giai doan di hgc hay giai doan nghi huu Nguon von ngudi H dugc hinh tir rat nhieu yeu to ben canh siic lao dgng thong thudng, nhu tri thiic cd dugc thong qua hgc tap cdn nhd, hgc tap qua trinh lao ddng, ngudn th6ng tin, kinh nghiem lao dgng, cac moi quan he xa hgi, v.v Tuy nhien, de don gian hda cac mo hinh kinh te, cac nha kinh te hgc deu gia thiet nguon von nhan lyc la mgt ham sd cua viec diu tu cho cac nam di hpc cua ngudi Trong nghien ciiu nay, tac gia ti^p tuc sur dung mo hinh hinh ngudn nhan luc ma Pham Xuan Hoan (2008, 2009) da thuc hien, dugc phat trien tren y tudng ciia Heckman (2004), Cunha va cpng sy (2005) la: //^/;[(/,r-H{A)''+ + (/„,r]^ (3) Tuang ty nhu Heckman (2004); Cunha va cpng su (2005) da nhan djnh thong qua quan sat thuc tiln, Pham Xuan Hoan (2008) chiing minh bing cong thuc toan hgc' rang H la mgt ham s6 thuan ciia v; theo i; cao hon the hien mot nen quan tri giao due tdt han, vdi ciing mpt mire dau tu vao giao due se tao mgt ngudn vdn nhan luc cao PhiUiE Xufln Nha & Phjim XuSn Hoan Tflp chi PhSt tn£n Kinh 16.27(5), 02-16 han; va u thip hon hon the hiSn mot nen quan trj giao due kem han Con ( l - ^ ) la dp cogian ciia ngudn luc ngudi //vdi £|j ^ ^ = (7,] +y2) \ , vdn dugc coi la vai trd ciia giao due viec hinh ngudn von nhan lyc (luu y, giao due mac du la quan trpng, vSn chi la mdt cac yeu td gdp phSn tao len ngudn von nhan luc) Vdi ciing mdt miic diu tu cho giao due, neu vai tro (ndi each khac la ti trpng) cua giao due ddi vdi viec tao len nguon nhan lyc tang 1% thi nguon vdn nhan luc se tang len (l—^) % Ham y ciia di6u cd the tang dugc ngudn vdn nhan lyc ma khong can tang dau tu cho giao due, bang each tang cudng vai trd ciia giao due ddi vdi viec hinh nguon vdn nhan luc Trong md hinh cua nghien ciiu nay, ngudn vdn nhan luc cao ddng nghTa vdi nang suat lao ddng cao, nen de di hi€u co the diln giai la (l-f^) la vai trd cua giao due ddi vdi nang suat lao dpng Trong phuong trinh (3) thi / la quy md cua "Cpng ddng ngudi" ciing sinh mdt nam nao dd, nen nd la mdt hang sd; va vi nd la mdt hang sd nen nd khdng cd y nghta viec phan tich bien doi cua cac cdng thiic toan De don gian, ve mat toan hpc co the coi / = hay bing bit cii gia tri co dinh nao Trong thdi gian tdi, ke thira ket qua ciia nghien cicu nay, tac gia se tiSp tyc phat trien md hinh t6ng quat ap dung cho pham vi quoc gia, chii khdng chi ap dung cho mpt "Cdng ddng ngudi" sinh cimg nam nhu nghien cuu Liic / se la quy md dan sd ciia dat nudc, chii khdng phai la quy md dan so cua mgt "cdng ddng ngudi" sinh ciing mgt nam, se bien ddi qua timg nam chu khdng co dinh nhu md hinh hien tai Trong thyc tien, sau nghi him, mpt sd ca nhSn cd the van cd boat dgng san xuat kinh doanh va nhu vay la van "khai thac" vdn nhan lyc cua chfnh hp Tuy nhien, de dan gian ve mat toan hpc, cung gidng nhu tit ca cac cdng trinh nghien ciiu khac, co Heckman (2004), Cunha va cdng su (2005), Pham Xuan Hoan (2008,2009); nghien ciiu gia dinh sau nghi huu tat ca diu khong san xuit kinh doanh, va nhu vay vl mat kinh te thi ngudi khdng cdn su dung nguon von nhan lyc cua hg dugc hinh giai doan di hgc nira, hay ndi each khac cae khoan diu tu cho giao due d giai doan di hgc da dugc "khiu hao" het De "san xuat" nguon vdn nhan luc nhu neu tai cdng thiic (3) thi xa hgi da tieu ton chi phi dau tu cho giao due, tfnh theo gia tri tal thai dilm nam bit diu di lam se la: Phune Xuan Nha & Pham XuSn Hoan Tpp chi Ph^l man Kmh le 27(5) 02-16 C ' = ( l + r ) " / , + ( l + r ) " " ' / ; + ( l + r ) " " ' / , + + (l + r ) ' / (4) Gia sir ti8p, cac nam lao dong, d6 san xuat san luong Y^ a nam j bit ki nao do, ngoai nguon von nhan lire ciia chinh minh, "Cong dong nguai" sir dung nguon von hihi hinh (may moc thiet hi, v.v.) la ^ De don gian mo hlnh, gia sir "Cong dong nguoi" thue toan bo nguon von hiru hinh vol lai suat r , thi chi phi nguon von hiiu hinh chi tuong ducmg voi tong muc khau hao va lai suat (thuc duong) Nhu vay, tong chi phi nguon von huu hinh "Cong dong nguai" sii dung, tinh theo gia tri hien tai vao nam "Cpng dong nguai" bat dau di lam, nghTa la nam (m+1) se la: C'' ={r + S)K (5) K TK, (l + y "^ - (1 + r ) ' - ' 'J Mo hinh kinh ti tra thanh: Xac dinh so nam di hoc toi uu m de toi da hoa chenh lech giiia t6ng san luang (1) vai tong chi phi (4) va (5), ham san xuat tuan theo phuang trinh (2), ham san xuat nguon von nhan lire tuan theo phuang trinh (3) Diln ta day "du theo mo hinh toan hoc se la: Toi da hoa: 1 "' (1 + ,-)' ~ (l + r)' -{(l + r ) " / , + ( l + r ) " - / , + ( l + )"'"/,+ + (l + r)'/.} Trong dd Yj =KJH^;'' va H = l^[{l,y +{!:,)" -\- +{I„y\ (6) " bing each chpn sd nam di hpc tdi uu m Giai mo hinh, kit qua mo phong va ham y chinh sach doi vdi VN Muc tieu ciia viec thilt lap mo hinh tdi uu (6), nghien cuu nay, khong phai la dl tim gia tri tuyet ddi cua sd nam di hpc tdi uu m la bao nhieu, vi viec la khdng Phimg Xuan Nha & Phgm Xuan Hoan Tap chi Phai tnSn Kinh 16,27(5), 02-16 kha thi: Lfng vdi mdi bien doi cua cae tham sd a, 5,v,^, v.v hay ling vdi mdi sy thay doi v^ tudi nghi huu ^ , se mgt gia tri m khac nhau, ma khdng biet chfnh xac gia tri cua cac tham sd a, S,v,^, v.v d bat ki dat nude nao Ngay ca tfnh dugc mpt gia tri m "hoan hao" nao do, ciSng khdng ung dung dugc, vi thdi gian dao tao cua mdt nen giao due cdn phu thupc vao rat nhieu yeu td khac, vf du dieu kien kinh te xa hpi, nen van hoa, v.v Thyc te cho thay so nam di hpc rat khac giiia cac nudc cac nudc OECD, binh quan ngudi dan theo hpc 10 nam trudc budc vao dp tudi san xuat, d cac nudc kem phat trien nhu Nepal va Botswana, sd nam di hpc binh quan ciia ngudi dan chi la nam Muc tieu ciia viec thiet lap mo hinh toi uu (6) nghien cuu la thong qua no de danh gia so nam di hpc tdi uu m phu thupc the nao vao cac bien dpng ben ngoai mo hinh ma chung ta dang quan tam, cy the la bien ddng cua tudi ve h u u ^ , bien dgng ve hieu qua quan tri cua he thdng giao due v, bien dpng ve vai trd cua giao due doi vdi viec hinh ngudn vdn nhan lye va nang suat lao dpng ,(l—^) ,v.v de tir nit cac ham y ve mat chinh sach Chung ta hoan toan khong quan tam tdi gia tri tuyet doi ciia m Chinh vi vay, gia tri tuyet ddi ciia mpt sd yeu to nhu lai suat r va quy mo cua "Cgng dong ngudi" / hoan toan khdng anh hudng tdi y nghta md hinh De don gian han ve mat toan hgc, tac gia gia dinh r - va / - ; nhien, viec gia dinh r — de don gian ve mat toan hgc ciing la han che cua nghien cuu Trong thdi gian tdi, tac gia se tap trung nghien ciiu, xir li them trudng hgp r^O Tuong ty, nhu da trinh bay tai muc 2, viec chgn doi tugng nghien ciiu la mgt "Cgng ddng ngudi" sinh cung mpt nam, chii khdng phai la toan bd dan sd cua qudc gia, cung la mot han ehe cua nghien ciiu Trong thdi gian tdi, tac gia se nghien ciiu phat triSn md hinh them mpt budc de ap dung cho toan bg dan sd cua mgt nudc, dd quy mo dan so / , trudng hgp cua VN se co xu hudng tang hang nam Vdi cac gia thiet tren, sau qua trinh bien ddi ham tdi uu hda (6) cudi ciing trd thanh' tdi da hoa: Phimg Xuan Nha & Pham XuSn Hoan Tap chi Phil Iriin Kmh te, 27(5), 02-16 = {p-m)5'-'m " Up-m)S''-'m " (l-^) a'""-a'"" or'-"-or'-" (V) -m [p-m)d''-^m " (1-?>)| a'^" -or'" Bang viec lua sd nam di hgc t6i uu m , a don gian la tham s6 ham san xuit Cobb-Douglas vdn rat than thudc kinh te hpc, S don thuin la ti le khiu hao; va nhu da giai thich rit ro d phan d tren, u phan anh hieu qua cua quan tri giao due, cdn y nghTa cua ^ dugc the hien gian tiep qua viec (l—^) phan anh vai trd ciia giao due doi vdi viec hinh ngudn vdn nhan lyc va nang suat lao dgng Vdi phuong trinh (7), chiing ta da gan dat dugc muc dfch, da dien giai dugc lgi fch rdng T dudi dang ham sd cua thdi gian di hpc tdi uu m, da loai bd dugc mpt loat cae biSn sd khac chac chan co anh hudng tdi T, vi du nhu muc dau tu cho giao due Ij, muc dp Sli dung may mdc thiet bi hoat dpng san xuat kinh doanh Kj Chfnh viec giai md hinh tdi uu hda (cu the la qua trinh bien ddi tir md hinh tdi uu hda (6) md hinh tdi uu hda (7)) da giiip chiing ta lam dugc viec Viec phan tich tiep theo se dugc thuc hien tren ca sd phuong phap md phdng, theo ung vdi mdi gia tri ciia m ta se tinh gia tri ciia T a phuong trinh (7), T dat gia tri cao nhat tiic la m tuong ling se la so nam di hgc tdi uu; tir md phdng chiing ta se nhan dien dugc su phu thudc ciia m vao cac bien sd p, v, (l-rji) De nhat quan, cac mo phdng nghien ciin deu dugc trinh bay vdi gia thiet a-0,3 va 5=0,5 Luu y rang viec thay ddi cac gia tri cua a hay khdng lam thay ddi y nghta cua md hinh Tuy nhien, hai gia tri dugc chgn vi chung dugc gia thi§t tuong ddi rdng rai cac nghien cuu ve kinh tfi Phimg Xuan Nha & Pham Xuan Hoan Tap chi PhSl t r i ^ Kinh t^, 27(5), 02-16 3.1 Tdc ddng ciia viec thay doi tuoi nghi huu [pj 40,000- 30,000- 20,000- 10,000 - ' / IX Tpm=20^ TdtractBida hoa (iofi nhit) 4 • **•