TIEN LirONG TOI THIEU, VIEC LAM VA THAT NGHIEP ^VIETNAM HIEN NAY • • Nguyin Vinh Giang Khoa Kinh te vd Qudn ly Ngudn Nhdn lire, Dgi hoc Kinh te Qudc ddn Email: gignnl@gmail.com Ngay nh?n: 8/8/2016 Ngay nhan b^n sua: 8/12/2016 Ngay duyet dang: 25/2/2017 Tom tat: Ty le tdng tien luang tdi thieu ndm 2016 Id 12,4% so voi ndm 2015 Ngdy 01 thdng 08 ndm 2016, Tdng lien doan lao dong Viet Nam, Phdng Thuong mgi vd cdng nghiep Viet Nam, vd Hoi ddng tien luang quoc gia dd thdng nhdt de xudt ty le tdng tien luang tdi thieu ndm 2017 Id 7,3% Co rdt nhieu vdn di lien quan den tdng tien luang tdi thieu, nhimg pham vi bdi viet ndy, tdc gid khdng de cap din mite tdng tien luang tdi thieu bao nhieu la phii hop, md chi bdn ludn den nhimg tdc dong cua tiin luang tdi thieu tdng se dnh hirang den viec lam vd that nghiep nhu the ndo Tic do, dua khuyin nghi ve nguyin tdc tinh luang tdi thieu, cdc yiu td xdc dinh mirc tdng tien luong tdi thieu vd ca quan thuc Men cdng bd mirc luong tdt thieu Tu khoa: Do co gian cua cung va cau, that nghiep, tien luong toi thieu, viec lam Minimum wage, employment and unemployment in Vietnam Abstract: The rate of minimum wage increase in 2016 was 12.4% compared to 2015 On August 1st, 2016, Vietnam General Confederation of Labour, Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industiy, and National Wages Council agreed that the propo.sed rate of the minimum wage increase in 2017 would be 7,3% There are many issues related to the minimum wage increase This paper discusses the impacts of the minimum wage increase on employment and unemployment The paper also provides government agencies with recommendations for calculation of the minimum wage and determinants of the minimum wage Keywords Elasticity of demand and supply: unemployment; minimum wage; employment Gidi thieu Mpt y nghia rit quan tang tiln lucmg t6i thieu la nhSm dam bao muc sing tdi thilu cho nguai lao dong Tuy nhien, viec tang tiln luong toi thilu se CO nhung tac dong nhieu mat, tren nhieu ITnh vuc ca tich cue va tieu cue, dac biet doi vai viec lam va that nghiep cua ngucri lao dong Trong pham vi bai viet nay, tac gia tap trung nghien cihi nhirng tac dong tieu cue ciia viec tang tien luong toi thieu den viec lam va that nghiep, tir de xuat mgt so khuyin nghi vcri cac nha quan ly nham dira quyet dinh vc So 237 thdng 3/2017 tang lien luong toi thieu hop ly, thiic dhy qua trinh ph:it tnen kinh te hieu qua Phuons; phap nghien ciiu, co- so ly luSn va thuc tiSn vk tiln luong t6i thilu 2.1 Phuong phdp nghien ciru Phucmg phap nghien ciru thirc hien bai vilt ^^'^^ y^^ su dung nghien cuu dinh tinh Tren co sa he thong hoa ly thuyet ve tien luong toi thilu, dua tren cac ly thuyet cita mpt s6 nha khoa hoc ntioai nuac tong hgp cac dii' lieu thirc tiln vl tiln luanc tli thicu 31 killllh'J'l]:" tham khao, tong hop va phan tich cac y kien cua cac chuy§n gia, can b6 lanh dao, quan Iy v% Imh vuc tien luong, lao dong va viec lam, tir nit cac k6t luiln, ban luan va de xuat cac khuyen nghi 2.2 Ctfs&lylu^n thiiu vd thirc tien vetien Immgtoi 2.2.1 Khdi niem, dgc trung vd chirc ndng Theo dilu 91, B6 Luat Lao d6ng (2012) quy dinh: "Muc lirang tdi thieu Id miic thdp nhdt trd cho ngudi lao ddng lam cdng viec gidn dcm nhdt diiu Men lao ddng binh thieongvd phdi bdo ddm nhu cau sdng tdi thiiu cua nguai lao dgng vd gia dinh /ip."(Qu6c Hoi, 2012) Nhu vay, tiln luong toi thieu co mdy dac trung CO ban: Tien luong t6i thieu dugc Iimt hoa va nha nuac quy dinh, la mirc tra cong thdp nhdt cho khu vyc kg dung tien lucmg toi thieu (nguod sii dung lao dpng khong dugc tra thap hon muc nay); Tiln luong toi thieu khong co dinh ma thupc gia ca tijmg thai ky can dugc dieu chinh tang len nham dam bao miic song toi thieu cho nguoi huong luong Dieu cung cho thdy tien luong tii thilu co nhirng chirc nang ca ban sau: ch6ng doi ngheo va boc lot, nhat la nhom lao dpng yeu thi xa hgi; la luai an toan chung cho nguai huang luong, dap img cac nhu cau toi thieu cho nguai lao dpng va gia dinh hp, va la ca so dl tinh miic bao hilm xa hpi 2.2.2 Tien hrong tdi thieu danh nghia vd tien luang ldi thiiu thuc te Tien luang tdi thiiu danh nghia (TLTTDN) la s6 lupng lien te dugc Nha nuoc quy djnh de tra luang cho nguai lao dong gian don nhat dilu kien binh thuang ciia xa hpi Tien^ luang toi thiiu thuc ti (TLTTTT) dugc bilu hien bang so lugng va chdt lugng hang hoa dich vu trao doi dugc bdng s6 luong tiln luang tli thilu danh nghTa, Dieu co ngliTa la TLTTDN va TLTTTT co moi quan he chat che voi thong qua gia ca tieu diing tren thi tnrong qua cong thuc sau: Imiiitl = Imindn/lgc Trong do: Immtr la chi so ticn hrong t6i thieu thuc te; Imindn: chi so tien hrong tdi thieu danh nghia; Igc: chi so gia ca: Dilu quan trpng la TLTTTT co dam bao duac mirc song toi th.eu clio nguai lao dong hay khong, \ a dieu phu thuoc vao ca hai TLTTDN va sia ca' Sd 23-thdng 3/2017 Nhdt la gia ca, rat kho kiem sodt v^ on dinh Nhilu ylu t6 tac dfing vao nen kinh tl Ikra cho gia ca tang va lam phat phat sinh Dieu bat huge Nha nuoc phai giam sat va dieu chinh tang TLTTDN nhdm dam bao TLTTTT dap iing dugc muc song toi thilu cho nguoi lao dgng timg thdn ky 2.2.3 Tien luong tdi thieu v&i co gidn cda cung vd cdu lao dong Dp CO gian cua cung lao dgng (€cg) cho biSt ty 1^ % thay doi cung lao dgng (s6 gia tham gia lao dpng) thay d6i 1% tien luong €cg = % thay ddi sd gia Idm viec / % thay ddi mirc tien luang Neu €cg CO gia tri am, nghia la tien luang tang len lam cung lao dgng giam di, neu \k ducmg thi cung lao dong tang len Khi tri myet doi ciia €cg nho hon 1, cung lao dpng it co gian, lan hon I cung lao d6ng coi la CO gian (nghia la so gio lam viec chiu anh huong manh ciia tien luong) Dp CO gian ciia cung lao dgng rat khac vi phu thupc mlu khao sat: doi tugng khao sat nam hay nix, gia hay tre Han nira, viec xac dinh s6 gia lam vice (cung lao dgng) ciia ca nhan, tiln luang, thu nhap khong lao dgng rat kho uoc lugng S6 gia lam viec de uoc lugng cung lao dpng theo dan vi thai gian mgt ngay, mpt tuan hay mpt nam se cho dp co gian khac nhau, dp co gian cung lao dpng ciing phu thupc nguai lao dpng dugc tra luong va miic tien luong tra theo gia, thang hay nam Dp CO gian ciia cau lao dgng (€cu) la phdn h^am thay doi so lao dpng cdn thue thay d6i 1% tiln hrong, va dugc xac djnli theo cong thirc sau: €cu = % thay ddi sd lao dgng can thue / % thay ddi mice tien luang Dp CO gian ciia cau lao dpng ng§n han va dai han giong la deu mang ddu am (tiic la tien luong tang len thi cdu lao dpng diu giam xuong), nhung khac nliau la dp co gian cdu lao dpng dai han co gian hon cdu lao dpng ngdn han (vi dai han c6 du thai gian va dilu kien dl dilu chinh ca v6n va lao dpng, ngdn ban chi dilu chinh dugc lao dpng ma v6n khong thay dli) Cdu lao dong dugc gpi la co gian nlu co dp co gian vai gia tri tuyet doi Ion hon 1, khong co gian nlu gia trj tuyet doi nho han Nhu vay, Nha nuac tang tiln luang t6i thilu danh nghia, mat bang tiln luong noi chung se tang len va tac dpng den cung cdu lao dpng tren thi trircmg Tiiy thupc mirc tang tiln luang t6i thilu bao kinll KU'liiillrleii Bang 1: M^c thcri gian ap dung va mirc tien l u w g toi thilu danh nghia qua 23 nam qua Don vf: ngdn ddng ThaDg/ Nam 4/ 1993 TLminc 120 11 1997 144 1/ 2000 180 1/ 03 10/ 05 290 350 1/ 08 540 5/ 09 650 5/ 10 730 5/ 11 830 5/ 12 7/ 13 1.050 1.150 1/ 1/ 14 1.150 15 1.150 5/ 16 1.210 Ngudn: Tdc gid tdng hgp nhieu se tac dpng den co gian ciia cung cau lao dpng o cac khu vuc, cac nganh, cac doi tugng lao dpng rat khac lam cho biln dgng ve cung cau lao dgng tren thi truang lao dgng rat kho dir doan va kiem soat 2.2.4 Thttc trgng tang tien lucmg tdi thieu danh nghia nhimg ndm qua Thdng nam 1993, Nha nuac moi bat dau quy dinh va dp dung tien luong t6i thilu Hon hai chuc nam qua, Nha nuac chi cai each tiln luong nam 1993 va thang 10 nam 2004, nhung tien luang toi thieu khong tang ciing voi thcri diem cai each tien luong ma dugc dieu chinh gan vai su bien dgng gia ca va nang cao miic s6ng, qua cac moc thai gian nhu Bang Nhu vay, c6 the thay rang, Nha nuoc da co nhieu CO gang dieu chinh tang mirc tien luong toi thieu dardi nghTa 13 lan vong 23 nam qua, nhung hau nhu cac miic tien luong tot thieu van chua hgp ly Han nira, thai diem ap dung thucmg qua tri so vai thuc te, lam cho tien luong toi thieu thuc te noi rieng va tiln luong diuc tl noi chung ciia ngiroi lam cong an luang khong dap irng dugc miic song toi thieu va nhu cau cupc song cCia hg a mpi thoi ky tang luong Dilu tac dpng nhieu den m^t bang luang cua thi truemg, ciia xa hgi, dan toi nhieu bat cong va bdt cdp giua tiln luang, thu nhap giiia cac khu vuc, cac loai hinh kinh te a nuoc ta 2.2.5 Tdc ddng cua tdng tien luong tdi thieu danh nghia din viic lam, thdt nghiip Phan tich tac dpng ciia tang tien luong t6i thieu doi voi vi?c lam va that nghiep qua Hmh Theo George J Stigler (1946), ban dau thi truong lao dgng can bang tai miic tien cong W* va muc viec lam E* Nhimg mirc luong can bang la qua thap so vai mijc song ciia dan cu noi chung va nhirng nguai lam cong an lucmg tren thi truong, liic nay, chinh phu ap dung miic tien cong toi thieu W, cao hon miic lucmg can bang cij (W*) Gia sir tien lucmg toi thieu ap dung chung cho tat ca nguai lao dpng va tat ca ngucri sii dung lao dpng tren thj truong lao dpng phai tuan thu Liic nay, nguai sir dung lao dpng se Hinh 1: Tac dong tang tien lirong toi thieu den viec lam, that nghiep S Tiin luang O E E' Es Sd lao ddng lime Ngudn: George J Stigler (1946) So 237thdng 3/20n kliillll'J'llilUH^'i phai tra cong cho nguai lao dpng cao htm tnroc, lgi nhuan bi giam siit, se quyit dmh giam quy mo sdn xudt va s6 lao dpng dugc thue se giam xuong (cdu lao dpng giam) va viec 1dm chi E Kit qud la mgt s6 lugng lao dpng (E* -JE) bi mdt vice lam, tro nen that nghiep Mat khac, tiln luong tdi thilu tang, d6ng nghia vai viec tiln luong fren thi tnrong se tang, khuyin khich nhiing ngucri chua tham gia muon nhap thi truemg lao dgng (Es), nhien, khong dl gi CO dugc viec lam nhu mong muon Do vay, co them (Es - E*) ngucri muon lam viec md khong c6 dugc vi$c lam, tro nen that nghiep T6ng hgp hai trang thai tren cho ta thay, tang tien luong toi thilu (tir W* len W) se lam cho (Es E) so lao dpng hi that nghiep, va ty le thdt nghiep la (Es - E)/Es Hon niia, tinh trang se k6o dai, vi cdc ong chii khong muon thue them lao dgng, nguoi lao dgng muon Idm viec a miic tien luong toi thieu mdi (E) Ket qua la, tang tien luong toi thieu, se 1dm gidm viec 1dm va gia tang that nghiep tren thi tmang lao dgng ma khong de gidi quyet mot sdm mgt chieu Mot so van de can trao doi Tir phan tich chung neu tren, nghien ciiu trao doi them ve nhimg tac dgng cu the tang tien luong toi thieu doi voi viec lam, that nghiep tren thi tnrong lao dgng Tang luang toi titieu cd lai cho nguoi lao dpng vdn co viec lam, nhung se tirdc di ngudn sdng cua nhung ngu&i lao dgng bi mdt viec idm tang luang tdi thieu That vay, tien luang toi thilu danh nghia tang Nha nuoc nhan tiln luong thuc tl cua nguai lam cong an luong qua thdp Tiln luang toi tliicu tang se lam tang luong, thu nhap cho nhirng nguai lam cong an luong, dem lai ich ldn cho nhirng nguoi lao dgng CO tiln luong thu nhap thdp (va thuong la nhung nguoi CO trinh dp, ky nang lao dpng thdp) Viec tang vai tram ngan d6ng voi nhihig nguai c6 thu nhap hang chuc trieu ding tro len va hon nira thi chdng ••tham thap" gi, nhung vcri nguai lao dpng co thu nhap 3,4trieu ding/ thang la rdt dang kl Nhirng tac dpng tich cue chi co Igi cho nhirng nguai c6 ky nang thap, thu nhap thdp nhung may mdn van co vice lam Con nhirng nguai bi mat viec lam tang hrong toi thieu thi la tham hoa ma phdn Ion mdt \ lec lai rai vao nhimg nguai c6 ky nang thdp, sl lai chiem ty le Ion irong doi ngu lao dong cua xa hoi So 23-thdng 3/2017 Tang tien Immg tdi thieu khong Idm gidm S6i ngheo Nhu da de cap tren, tang tien luong t6i thilu lam tang tiln luang cho nhihig ngucri c6 tien luong thu nhap thdp nhung lai lam mat viec lam cho mpt s6 nhung ngucri Nghien ciiu thuc tien cua Burkhauser & cgng su (1996) b My cho thdy: tang thu nhap tang tien luang toi thieu chi roi vao khoang 19% s6 hg c6 thu nhap ndm duoi miic ngheo kho, thu nhdp tang lai chiem fren 50% s6 hg CO thu nh^p gdp hai ldn ngudng ngheo kh6 Dilu cho thdy ca tien lucmg t6i thieu kh6ng CO dnh huang tieu cue den viec lam thi viec tang tien luang t6i thieu ciing khong phdi la mgt each hieu qua ch6ng doi ngheo Da s6 truang hgp, Igi ich chi din vai nhiing nguai co miic thu nhap bac tren cSn ngheo, nhung ngucri ngheo doi thi van hoan toan ngheo doi Cdt gidm viec lam tdng tien luang toi thieu nhieu hay it (lam cho ty l^ th&t nghiep cao hay thap) phu thugc mite vi pham luat tien Immg toi thieu pham vi hep hay phd bien Vi$c tra kiem soat ngucri su dung lao dpng chap hdnh nghiem ludt tang luong toi thieu het siic kho khan nguai sir dung lao dgng khong tu giac chap hanh, dgi ngii tra yeu vd thieu, nguoi lao dgng sg mat viec lam khong dam khieu nai, tl chiic cong doan chua bdo ve chinh dang Igi ich cho nguai lao dpng, che tai xu phat nguai sir dung lao dpng vi pham tien luang toi thieu chua dii sire ran de, va viec giai quyet thoa hiep co Igi cho nguoi sii dung lao dpng Do vay, cac doanh nghiep vi pham ma khong bi phat hien (ma rat co the chiem ty le cao) CO the tiep tuc tra thii lao vai mirc thap hem tien luang canh tranh, lam giam ty le that nghiep, Dieu nghTa la, miic dp vi pham luat tien luong toi thieu cdng bien thi viec lam cat giam it va ty le that nghiep thdp Thuc tl tai Viet Nam, miic dp vi pham luat tien luong toi thieu kha bien nhieu nguyen nhan neu tren nen ciing tac dpng lam cho ty le that nghiep a nuac ta a miic thap Tdc dpng tdng tien luang tdi thieu den viec Idm vd thdt nghiep rdt da dgng, phuc tap ddi voi khu vuc dp dung vd khdng dp dung quy dinh tien lutmg tdi thieu, cdc loai hinh kinh te: nhd nu&c, tu nltdn, ddu tu nirdc ngodi Mac dil Nghj dinh 122/20I5/ND-CP quy dinh dli tugng ap dung gdra: doanh nghiep lap, td chiic quan ly va hoat dgng theo Luat Doanh nghiep, lien kinll liy'liiillrico hiSp hgp tac xa, hgp tdc xa, t6 hgp tdc, trang trai, hg gia dinh, ca nhan vd cac to chiic khdc ciia Viet Nam CO thue muon lao dgng theo hgp d6ng lao dpng; ca quan, to chiic nuac ngodi, to chiic quoc te, vd ca nhan nguoi nuac ngoai t^ii Viet Nam co thue muon lao dgng theo hgp ddng lao dpng (quy djnh theo viing, vd khu vuc dau tu nuoc ngodi), nhung viec kiem sodt la rat kho Tren thuc te, co hinh khu vuc dp dung (cdc co quan, to chiic, doanh nghiep nha nuac qudn ly, cac doanh nghiep nuoc ngodi, cdc doanh nghiep tu nhan vua va Ion khu vi^c thi Id chu yen) vd khu vuc khong dp dung quy dinh tiln lucmg toi thieu (cac co so tu nhan nho, co sa dich vu, buon ban le va nho, vd khu vuc nong thon) Do vay, giiia hai khu vuc c6 su dich chuyen lao dpng rat da dang Nguoi lao dgng se chuyen den khu vuc nao CO miic tien cong mong dgi cao nhat Neu khu virc dp dung tiln luong tdi thieu tra luong ky vpng cao ban khu vuc khdng dp dung tien luang tdi thieu, thi luong lao ddng se chuyen den khu vuc ap dung tien luong tdi thieu de tim viec lam, lam giam kha nang tim dugc viec Idm, dp dai thdi gian that nghiep tang len va lam giam tien cdng ky vpng d day Ngugc lai, neu tien luong d khu vuc khdng ap d\ing cao hem, ludng lao ddng di chuyen den khu vuc se lam giam tien luang canh tranh, ca hdi tim viec d day se khd khan hon Neu ngudi lao ddng co viec lam d khu vuc ap dung giii dugc viec mgt thdi gian dai, se khd cho ngudi vira budc vao khu vuc ap dung tim cdng viec lam Do vay, ngudi thdt nghiep se chuyen sang tim viec trgng khu vuc khdng ap dung vdi tien luong thap hon nhimg lai san viec NIU nhiing ngudi lao ddng dang cd viec lam d khu virc ap dung khdng gan bd vdi cdng viec, thi ca hdi tim viec d day se cao, nhieu ngudi se xep hang de tim viec d khu vuc ap dung Ket qua, di chuyen lao dgng tu giira cac khu vuc cudi cimg se dan din trang thai ap dung tien luang toi thieu d khu vuc ap diing thi tien luong se tang len va mdt sd lao ddng se bi mat viec lam Tuy nhien, hp cd the chuyen sang khu virc khdng ap dung tiln luong tdi thieu va tim dugc viec lam (dich vu, budn ban nhd chang ban) se lam cho sd lao ddng cd viec lam d khu vuc khdng ap dung tang len va tien luong d khu vuc giam xudng Tuy nhien, nhiing lao ddng khu vuc khdng ap dung co tien cdng thap ciing cd the di chuyen sang khu vuc dp dung den tim dugc tien luang tdi thieu hoac tiln luong cao hon, va dieu dd lam cho vice lam khu vuc khdng ap dung giam xudng va tien Sd 237 thdng 3/2017 cdngdday tang len Dilu ndy cho thdy viec t^r rdi bd hay gia nhap thi trudng lao ddng cd thi lam can bdng tien cdng thuc tl nin kinh tl ma khdng phu thudc quyet djnh ciia nhd nuoc quy dinh tiln lucmg tdi thieu cho cac vung N I U ngudi lao ddng cd thi tu di chuyin giiia cac khu vuc, giiia cac viing dl dang thi qua trinh di chuyin se van tiep dien Khi ngudi lao dgng vin cdn k>' vgng din khu vuc nao ma hg se tim dugc viec lam vdi miic tien cdng cao hem, thi di chuyin lao ddng vdn xay ra, cho den tien cdng ky vgng bdng giiia cdc khu vuc Viet Nam hign nay, Nha nude dang quy dinh ti8n lucmg tdi thilu khdc theo viing, nlu cdc dieu kien thuan lgi cho viec di chuy8n lao ddng ddm bao, thi qud trinh se dien sdi ddng, lien tuc cho den khdng cdn su ch^nh lech vl tiln luong giira cdc viing niia Tuy nhien, viec di chuyen lao dpng tren thi trudng lao ddng nude ta hiSn rat ban che neu khdng ndi la rdt khd khan (do thilu viec lam, ca chi, chinh sdch, trinh dg ngudi lao ddng, thdi quen tap quan sg phieu luu, mao hiem chuyen nghe, chuyen noi lam viec, sinh sdng ) Ben canh dd, cdc td chirc doanh nghiep nhd nude quan ly, viec tuyen dung vd cho nghi viec bi rang budc bdi nhieu chinh sdch ciia Nha nude Thdng thudng lao ddng td chiic kinh te nha nude thudng dn dinh, it bien ddng, nen mac dii tang tien lucmg tdi thieu, viec cat giam viec lam thudng it thuc hien Nguoc lai, lo^i hinh td chiic, doanh nghiep tu nhan va dau tu nude ngoai, viec tang tien luong tdi thieu se tac dgng den chi phi lao dgng, ngudi sii dung lao ddng de chii ddng cat giam lao dpng linh boat theo tinh hinh boat ddng san xuat td chirc ciia hp Ddi tuang lao dpng khdc nhau, khodng thdi gian dp dung, vd ngdnh nghe khdc cUng se cd ket qud khdc ve viec Idm vd thdt nghiep tdng tien lucmg tdi thieu Ddi vdi nien, mdt khao sat ciia Brown & cdng su (1982) cho thdy, dp co gian viec lam ciia lao ddng nien theo tiln luong toi thilu tir -0,1 den -0,3 Ndi each khac, cii 10% tang tiln luong tdi thieu lam giara viec lam cua lao ddng nien tir !%dln3% Tuy nhien, dp co gian viec lam tang tiln luong tdi thieu tinh cho mgt khoang thdi gian ngdn se khac neu dugc tinh theo klioang thdi gian dai Tang tien luang tdi thieu thudng cd tac ddng sau killlllfAlll'll luat cd hieu luc tit din nam Nhirng ngudi sii bj Id trinh tang luang tdi thi6u nam 2017, 20 dimg lao ddng cd the khdng thay ddi iao ddng chinh thang nam 2016, HOi dong tiln luang qudc gia, xac vao ma luat cd hieu luc, nhung hg se cd Tdng LDLDVN da de xuat tnmg binh tang luong thi dilu chinh dan ddn cdc chi phi lao dpng tang tdi thilu vimg nam 2017 Id 11,11% Muc tang len bdt bupc tang tien luang tdi thieu theo qui tuang img tir 250.000 - 400.000 ddng cho vimg dinh Trudc vd tuan thii quy dinh tien luong Du kiln vung tang 400.000 ddng; viing tang toi thieu, co gian viec 1dm tang tien lucmg tdi 350.000 ddng; vung tang 300.000 ddng; viing thieu se rat lihd (gan bang 0), nhung vdi khoang thdi tang 250.000 ddng Nhu vdy, miic tang viing dap gian ddi thi co gian mang ddu am vd gid tri tuyet ung cao nhdt 92,85%; vung thap nhdt chi ddp iing 88,5% nhu cdu sdng tdi thilu Ngugc lai, Phdng ddi ldn hon nhieu (viec lam cat giam nhieu) Thuong mai vd Cdng nghiep Viet Nam (VCCI) dl Hon nira, neu khao sat co gian viec 1dm tang xudt mtic tang tu 100.000 -180.000 ddng cho viing tien lutmg toi thieu vdi nganh nghe khac ciing Tinh trung binh, mirc tang Id 4,62% Ngdy 0! thang cho nhirng ket qua rat khac Vi du, neu tien luang tdi thieu tang len se tac dgng lam gidm viec 08 nam 2016, ba ca quan tren da thdng nhdt dl nghi Idm vdi nhung nganh nghe det may, dich vu, san Chmh phu quyet djnh ty 18 tang tiln lucmg tdi thilu xudt nhd, nhung se it tac dgng ddi vdi nhimg nganh Id 7,3% So sdnh vdi cac nude nhu Lao, Campucbia, nghe san xudt cdng nghe ky thuat nhu lap rdp sdn Myanma, An Dp, Malayxia vd Thai Lan thi miic xuat dien tii (ddi hdi ky thuat phiic tap vd ludn tien tang tien luang tdi thieu d nude ta nhanh hon Tuy bd nhanh) Cung cd the cdng nghe cua cac doanh nhien, nhirng can cii dl xac djnh tang luong tdi nghiep cd tinh dac thii, sd lao ddng se tuong doi co thieu, cdc td chiic tren van xac dinh theo Bd Lu|it dinh cho tiing cdng doan, cdng viec, thi dii tang tiln Lao dgng gdm yeu td: nhu cdu, dilu kien kinh tl luong tdi thieu ciing khdng fhl giam lao ddng dugc, xa hdi va tien cdng tren thi tnrdng Hay ndi each nhung vdi nhung doanh nghiep cd day truyin cdng khac, xac dinh miic luong tdi thieu chii ylu dua vao nghe gdm nhieu lao dgng thay thi d moi cdng doan tac ddng ciia chi sd gia sinh hoat va nhu cdu sdng ldi thieu Ba co quan dua cac tieu thiic vd mirc tinh thi cd the se cd cat giara lao dgng khac VCCI bag ve doanh nghiep va dn dinh Muc tdng (hay ty le tang) tien luffng tdi thiiu gia thanh, gan vao nang sudt lao ddng nen miic tang nhieu hay h se tdc ddng den muc dp cdt gidm viec lucmg tdi thieu d mirc thdp Tong LDLDVN muln Idm nhieu hay k (Idm cho ty le thdt nghiep cao hay dam bao mirc sdng cao hon nen dl xudt muc tang thdp) cao Bd Lao ddng - Thuang binh va Xa hdi cd each Ro rang, ty le tang den luong tdi thieu cang nhilu tinh dung hda, ba ben ban luan rdi chia binh quan thi viec lam cang giam va ty le thdt nghiep cang tang (Hoang Manh, 2016b) Nhu vay, vdi each xac dinh va cung, cdu lao ddng cang co gian Dilu dd cho tang luong tdi thieu tren thi rd rang chua xem xet toi thay viec xac dinh ty le tang tiln luong tdi thilu (hay yeu td: gidm viec tdm vd tang that nghiep tdng mirc tang tien lucmg toi thieu) la hit sire quan tien luang tdi thieu ma nhu phan tich d tren n6 c6 klidng the chi dua tren sir phan doan theo cam tinh tac ddng Idn den cugc song ciia ngirdi lao ddng va ma phai tren co sd nghien ciiu va khao sat thuc tiln bien ddng ciia thi trudng lao dgng mdt each khoa hoc Khuyin nghi Muc tang tiln luong tdi thilu nam 2016 theo Nghi dinh I22/20I5/ND - CP la 12.4% so vdi nam 2015' Thir nhdt, can thdng nhdt ve nguyen tdc tinh nhung chua dap img dugc ky vgng, chua dap irng luong tdi thieu phai dam bao mat bdng tiln lucmg duoc miic sdng tdi thilu cua ngudi lao dona Trong ciia thj trudng, tang luong chain hon tang nang suat budi tga dam giua Ban Quan he lao ddns T^ng lien lao ddng, dam bao Igi ich ciia doanh nghiep va dam doan Lao ddng Viet Nam (LDLDVN)."vien Cdng bao ddi sdng cho ngudi iao ddng, nhdt la dam bao nhan Cdng doan va LDLD Thanh phd Hd Chi Minh 26 thang nam 2016 cac dai bieu cho rdng viec lam, tranh thdt nghiep tang lucmg tdi thilu Thir hai, viec xac dmh va cdng bd miic song toi muc tien luong tdi thieu nam 20! mdi chi dap ung thieu phai mpt ca quan nhd nude thuc hien (nen dirge 80"/o miic sdng idi thieu cua ngudi lao ddng chang la Tdng cue Thdng ke) va dugc xac dinh tren Mdl cudc phong vdn cua Hoang Manh (2016a) ca sd: nhu can luong thuc, thuc pham, nhu cdu ddi vol Thu tnrang Pham Mmh lUian cho biet: chudn sdng van hda tinh than, nha d, dien nude,., vdi mot So 23-thdng 3/2017 kinll li'JIiiilli'jco bd tieu chi danh gia cu the ve hao phi the luc va tinh todn sd tien bao nhieu dS bit ddp calo cac hao phi dd Thir ba, xac dinh muc tang tiln lutmg tdi thieu (ty !e tang luong tdi thilu) ngodi ylu td ndu tr8n, can dua thdm cac yeu td: nang sudt lao dgng, tuang quan khu virc, phat triin doanh nghiep vd dac biet can them ydu to viec 1dm, thdt nghiep Thir tu, de bd simg ylu td viec lam, thdt nghiep vao viec xdc dinh ty le tang luong toi thilu, cac ca quan chiic nang cdn to chiic khao sat thuc tiln vdi mdu da dang, todn dien theo khu v^tc, loai hinh doanh nghi?p, ngdnh nghi, ddi tugng lao ddng de cd thi xdc dinh mdi tuang quan giiia tang luong toi thilu vdi gidm viec lam, tang thdt nghiep nhu thd nao, nhdm gdp phdn xdc dinh miic tang tien lutmg tdi thilu cho hgp ly timg thdi ky Tai lieu tham khao Charles Brown, Curtis Gihoy & Andrew Kohen (1982), 'The Effect of the Mmimum Wage on Employment and Unemployment', Journal ofEconomic Literature, 20,487-528 George J.Stigler (1946), 'The Economics of Minimum Wage Legislation', American Economic Review, 36, 358-365 Hoang Manh (2016a), 'Thii tnidng Pham Minh Huan: Hy vong chit miic luong tdi thilu 2017 thang 7', Dantri, truy cap lan cuoi 01 thang 07 nam 2016, tii Hoang Manh (2016b), 'Dai bilu qudc hpi Bui Si Lgi: Luang tdi thilu nam 2017 khd tang cao', Ddn tri, truy cap ldn cuoi 13 thang 06 nam 2016, tir < http://dantri.com.vn/223.htm> Quoc Hpi (2012), Bg lugt lao dong, ban hanh 18 thang nam 2012 Richard V Burkhauser, Kenneth A Couch & Andrew J.Glenn (1996), 'Public Policies for the Working Poor: The Eamed Income Tax Credit Versus Minimum Wage Legislation", Research in Labour economics, 15, 65-109 Sd 237 thdng 3/2017 Illl'JIiiin ... nghia nhimg ndm qua Thdng nam 1993, Nha nuac moi bat dau quy dinh va dp dung tien luong t6i thilu Hon hai chuc nam qua, Nha nuac chi cai each tiln luong nam 1993 va thang 10 nam 2004, nhung tien luang... killlllfAlll'll luat cd hieu luc tit din nam Nhirng ngudi sii bj Id trinh tang luang tdi thi6u nam 2017, 20 dimg lao ddng cd the khdng thay ddi iao ddng chinh thang nam 2016, HOi dong tiln luang qudc... thang 07 nam 2016, tii Hoang Manh (2016b), 'Dai bilu qudc hpi Bui Si Lgi: Luang tdi thilu nam 2017 khd tang cao', Ddn tri, truy cap ldn cuoi 13 thang 06 nam 2016,