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VAI TRO CilA TIN DUNG VI MO BOI Vdl PHUC LOI HO G U DINH; NHfTNG NHAN THlTC M I TlT H I QUY PHAN VI MANG Vu Van Hudng Hoc vien Tdi chinh Email: huongaofvn@gmaiLcom Hoang Tran H^u Truong bdi duovg cdn bg tdi chinh Email: hauht3767@,gmail.com Ngaynhan 15/8/2017 Ngay nhan ban siia: 25/9/2017 Ngay duyet ding: 25/11/2017 Tdm tdt: Nghiin cuu ndy sir dung bg sd lieu mdng cdn bdng ve dieu tra miec song ddn cu giai dogn 2010 - 2014, nghien ciru ndy khdng tim thdy mdi lien he giira chi tieu cua hg gia dinh vd tiep cgn tin dgng su dung hoi quy uac lugng mdng trung binh Tuy nhien, sd dung cdch tiep can hoi quy phdn vi mdng dnh huong co dinh, chung tdi tim thdy rdng giira tiep can tin dung CO dnh huong tich cue den chi tieu hp tgi nhieng diem phdn vi cao Ket qud cua chung tdi hdm y rdng cdc nghien cieu truac ddy sie dgng cdch tiep cgn trung binh co the khong phdn dnh dugc tdc dgng thuc cua tiep can tin dung vi md den phuc lgi hg gia dinh Them nira, kit qud nghien cieu hdm y rdng tiep cdn tdi chinh vi md co the Id mgt cdch de giup hg gia dinh cua Viet Nam cdi thien phdc lgi ciia hg Tu khda.- Tiep can tin dung vi md, hdi quy phdn vi, hd gia dinh, Viet Nam The Role of Microcredit in Household Welfare: New Perspectives from a Panel Quantile Regression Abstract: Using a balanced panel dataset for Vietnam household standard surveys in the 2010-2014 period, we not find a linkage between credit access and household expenditure when ordinary least square or FE is used However, by using afixed-effectquantile approach, we find that credit access is positively related with household in the high expenditure percentile The study results also show that previous studies using mean approach may hide the true impact of credit access on household welfare and access to household microfinance can be a way to help households in Vietnam imptove in their welfares Keywords: Microcredit access; quantile regression; household; Vietnam Dat van de Cd rdt nhilu nghien ciiu vl frip can tin dung din phuc lpi hp gia dinh nhung phdn Idn nghien eiru ve tac ddng tin dung ddi vdi phiic lgi hp gia dinh nhu tieu dung gia dinh vd thu nhdp sir dyng phucmg phdp tilp can trung binh (ATE) ATE gid dinh rang tdt ea eac hp gia dinh dugc xem xet deu cd ciing tde ddng tir sy tham gia ciia chuang trinh Tuy nhien, nhilu nghien cihi cho thdy rang gia thilt ATE khdng giii dugc (Bitler & cgng su, 2008; Dammert, 2009; Djebban & Smith, 2008; Galdo & c^ng sy, 2008) Sd 246 thdng 12/2017 Nhtrng nghien eiiu chi rang cae hieu ting khac "hau giua eae ed nhan va nhdm, va phdn bl ddu Them niia, ede nhd hoach dinh chinh sach cd the mudn xem xet cdc tdc ddng tai cdc diem phdn phdi ket qua khdc hoac cdc cd nhdn, nhdm hg gia dinh khac nham myc tieu eae ehinh sdch phii hap vdi cae ea nhan hoac hd gia dinh cd du dieu kien Vi du, mot chinh saeh nham vdo cae nhdm hoac ca nhdn d phdn phdi phuc lpi hd gia dinh thdp de cai thien siic khoe eiia hg l/dc lugng hdi quy phan vi (QTE) ed die dugc sii dung dl ddp ung nhu edu eiia 23 l\iniiteJliat trien cdc nhd hoaeh dinh ehinh saeh nhu vay, nd ed the giup hiln thi su khdng ddng nhat tac ddng thay dli nhu thi nao dpc theo sy phdn bd ket qud Cdc ehinh sach hudng tdi mpt nhdm dli tupng cu thi ed thi khdng hoat dong tit nlu khdng biet cde hp gia dkih vdi cac miic ehi tieu khde phdn ling nhu thi ndo ed can thiep nhu ehinh sdch tham gia tin dung Hay ndi cdch khac, phdn iing cua hg gia duih ddi vdi sy tham gia tin dung phy thude vao mue ehi va loai chi cua cde hd gia dinh Tuy nhien, hdu bet cde nghien cim ve tdc ddng tin dung den ehi tieu cua hd gia dinh deu sii dung each frep can trung binh, khdng c6 nhieu nghien euu ddnh gid ve tac ddng eiia tin dung hp gia dinh tap trung vao cdc diem phdn bd khac eiia ehi tieu Trong thyc te, nhieu nghien ciiu danh gia tap tnmg vao tinh khdng ddng nhdt frong cdc tde ddng dya tren cdc dae diem quan sat dupe, vi dy; nhdm tudi, nhdm hge vdn (Angrist, 2004; Coleman, 1999; Pifr & Khandker, 1998; Pitt & cdng sy, 2003), nhung hp khdng xem xet cae thay doi cila cdc tdc dpng eua tiep can tin dung thdng qua phan phdi ciia dau cd kiem soat cdc yeu td khdng quan sdt dupe Mdt sd nghien euu sii dung each tiep can hoi quy phdn vi de Idem tra sy khdng ddng nhat frong eac tae ddng Bitler & cdng sy (2008), Heckman & edng sy (1997a va 1997b) la nhiing ngudi ddu tien kiem tta tinh khdng ddng nhdt frong eac tae ddng, va hp bac bd each tiep can thdng thudng ddi vdi viec ddnh gid chuang trinh tap trung vao cac tac dgng tmng binh dya tten mdt gid dinh quan trgng rang tdt ea cde hp gia dinh dugc xem xet deu cd ciing hipu qua tir chuong trinh su tham gia Hp chi bang ehirng manh me ve sy khdng ddng nhdt ttong phdn bd tdc dpng sir dung dii lipu tir Chuang trinh dao tao viec lam quoc gia Hg eiing nhdn manh rang viec khdng quan tam dimg muc cita viec phan phdi cde ket qud co the ddn tdi kit qua sai khac ttong ddnh gia tae ddng Theo nhu hieu biet cua ehiing tdi, mpt sd hge gid (vi dy: Dammert, 2009; Dehejia & Gatti, 2002; Djebbari & Smith, 2008; Galdo & cdng sy, 2008) Id nhirng ngudi tten phongfrongviec dieu tra cdc hieu ling khong ddng nhdt cua eac chuang trinh nhu ddo tao vd cac chuang ttinh chuyen tien mat d cac nude dang phdt trien Nhiing nghien cuu eho thay rang tdc dgng eiia cac chuang trinh khac giira cae phdn bd ciia ket qua bdng eac dae dilm khdng theo ddi hoac eac hieu iing khdc vdi eac ddc tinh cd the quan sat dupe, phdn nhdm hoae nhdm Sd 246 thdng 12/2017 (gidi tmh, nhdm tudi, gidi tinh eua hpc sinh, ) Tuy the, cho den cd khd it nghien euu xem xet tde ddng eiia tiep can tin dung den phue lpi hd gia dinh sir dung each tiep can phan vi Vi vay, nghien cuu Idem tta lai eau hdi nghien cim su dung mpt each tiep can mdi Cdu tnie cua bdi bdo dupe td ehire nhu sau: Phdn trinh bay ngudn sd lieu va phuang phap ludn Cde ket qud thue nghiem duge trinh bay ttong phan Phan cudi eiing danh cho eae phdt hien vd thao ludn ehinh sach Nguon so lieu va phirorng phap luan 2.1 Nguon so liiu Trong nghien ciru nay, cuoc Dieu tra miie sdng hp gia dinh Viet Nam nam 2010, 2012 vd2014 se dupe su dung Ngdn hdng The gidi vd Tdng cue Thong ke Viet Nam thyc hien Cupe dieu tta duge tien hanh tten 63 tinh cd 128 tdng va xa ngdu nhien Sd lupng xa ttong moi tdng tuong ung vdi ty le ddn sd ciia cac tdng Idp tten tdng ddn sd Cac ngudn dii lieu njly cung cdp sd lieu can thiet eho eac hd gia dinh nhu nhdn khdu hpe ea ban, viec lam va sy tham gia ciia lue luang iao ddng, giao due, y te, thu nhdp, chi tieu, nhd d, tdi san cd dinh va hang hoa lau ben, sy tham gia eiia eae hp gia dinh vao cac chuang trinh x6a ddi giam ngheo, chuyen tien qude te, ehuyen tien tu nhan, ttp cap va ttp cap xa hoi nhan dupettong12 thdng trudc cupe phdng van d cdp hp gia dinh, eac cuge dieu tra cung cap nhieu thdng tin ve dae diem hg gia dinh, bao gdm nhan khau hpe ca bdn, thu nhdp, chi tieu, vd cde boat dpng tin dung cap cd nhan, cd san thdng tin ve nhan khau hge, viec Idm, giao due vd y te Mdu day dli eiia VHLSS 2010 bao gdm 9402 hg gia dinh vdi thdng tin ve chi tieu vd thu nhdp, ttong dd cd 1.369 hd gia dinh vay mugn tir eae ngudn tin dung nho khae Trong dd, 1.175 hd gia dinh da sir dung tin dyng vi md ttong sd 9.399 hg gia dinh duge khdo sat vao nam 2012; va 3.675 hg gia dinh frong sd 9.399 da tham gia vao eae ehuong trinh tin dung nhdfrongnam 2014 Vdi cac thdng tin cd sdn chiing tdi tien hanh xay dyng bd sd lipu mdng can bdng vdi 1914 mdi hg gia dinh dupe lap lai qua cdc nam mdng cua ehiing tdi frong giai doan 2010-14 Them niia, vdi cdc thdng tin san cd eho phep nghien cim xem xet anh hudng eua tilp cdn tin dung den phuc lgi hd gia dinh 2.2 Phirffngphdp ludn Udc luang OLS la mgt phuong phdp thdng thudng hiiil]te.J*lialtrifn de xem xet vai ttd eiia tilp can tin dung ddi vdi chi tieu hg gia dmh (Vi dp: Doan & cpng sy, 2014b) Tuy nhien, mdi quan hp giiia tilp can tin dung va chi tieu hg gia dmh ed the bi dnh hudng bdi cdc ylu td khdng quan sat dugc De gidi quyet vdn dh nay, mdt phuang phap bien la su dung cae ude luong dii lieu mang anh hudng ed dinh (Wooldridge, 2002) Hdi quy mdng dnh hudng ed dinh (FE) cd thi kilm soat dupe eac yeu td khdng quan sdt dupe va frong eae y6u to khdng quan sat dugc eoi Id eac phan khdng ddi theo thdi gian (Cameron & Trivedi, 2009) Tuy the, Buchinsky (1994) cho rang each tiep can tnmg binh ehua bao gid la mdt cdeh tiep can hgp ly de ket ludn ve mdt mdi quan he frong mpt tdng the khdng ddng nhdt Khi phan phdi ehuan eua phan du duge thda man, md hinh xae dinh eua phdn vi thii q* (0< q
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