PHAN NHAN DINH - DU E rn/\n TICH iik.n HUA :xtf Nguy -o^, ca "chiTa giau da gia' d Viet Nam TRAN DAO Vtfi mtfc thu nh$p qudc gia (GNI) binh quSn dlu ngtfM cdn each xa so vtfi mtfc giau, Idii ddn sd* gisi hda ddn stfm v^ nhanh, ndn Viet Nam dtfng trtftfc nguy ctf "chtfa giau da gia" Mud'n ngan ch§n nguy ctf "chtfa giau da gia", cin cd cac giai phap tac d$ng lam ch$m td'c d$ gia hda dSn sS'va tSng tdc d$ thu nh$p dd' lam giau THE NAO LA "GIAU", ''GIA" VA "CHl/AGIAUDAGIA"? Nrfdc giau la nrfde ed thu nhsip qudc gia (GNI) tinh bang USD theo ty gid hdi dodi binh quan dlu ngtfdi dat tten 20 nghin USD Vide tinh b^ng GNI chff khdng phdi la tdng sdn phd'm nffdc (GDP), bdi giffa GDP va GNI ed chdnh Idch: Nd'u thu nhap cfia ngrfdi lao ddng nrfde sd tai tff nrfdc ngoai gffi vl thSp hdn thu nhdp cfia ngrfdi nrfdc ngodi tff nrfdc sd tai gffi nffdc ngoai va thu nhap sd huXi eua nffdc ngodi tai nffdc sd tai, thi GNI se nhd hdn GDP Neu ngrfdc lai, tiii GNI sd ldn hdn GDP Ddn sd' gid drfdc Quy Dan sd Lien hdp qud'c (UNPPA) djnh nghTa d cd'p dd khac nhau: (1) "Dan sd gia hda" sd'ngrfdi trf 60 tudi ttd len chiem 7% ting sd' dan; (2) "Dan so' gia " sd ngffdi tff 60 tudi ttd len chie'm 20% tdng sd ddn; sd ngrfdi trf 65 tudi ttd ldn chid'm 14% tdng sd ddn; (3) "Dan sd rd't gia" sd ngtfdi tff 60 tudi ttd ldn chidm 30% tdng sd ddn; sd ngtfdi tff 65 tudi ttd ldn chid'm % tdng sddan; (4) "Ddn sdsidu gid" sd ngrfdi trf 60 mdi ttd len chidm 35% tdng so" ddn; so' ngtfdi trf 65 tudi U^ len chid'm 26% tdng sdddn Nhrf vdy, "ehrfa giau dd gid " la sd nam d l d^t ehuin gidu ddi hdn thdi gian dat ehuin gid VI^T NAM JR\J6C NGUY CO "CHl/A GIAU DA CIA" ddn sd vdng" tff nam 2007, ty le tte em dffdi 15 tudi chidm khoang 30%, tJ Id sd ngrfdi trf 60 tudi ttd ldn chidm drfdi 10%, ty Id sd ngrfdi tff 65 tudi ttd ldn ehidm dffdi 7%, binh qudn ngrfdi ttong tudi lao ddng nudi tiJf 1-2 ngrfdi phu thude Theo thong le thd gidi, "cd cau ddn sd'vang" cd thi diln tffdng ddi dai (30-40 ndm); nhilu nffdc cdn keo ddi hdn (Phdp 100 nam, Thtjy Diln 85 nam My 75 nam ); d Vidt Nam dffdc dff bao ngan hdn, ed thd kdo ddi den nam 2035 Tuy nhidn, thtfc td' md^y nam eho thd'y, "cd cau dan sd vang " ed thi se sdm ke't thfic, drfde drf dodn Id vao nam 2025, tffc la sdm hdn hang ehue ndm so vdi dff dodn trffdc day va ddn sdgid hda den sdm, diln nhanh ttong thdi kJ "cd cd'u ddn sdvdng" Ty le sd ngrfdi ttdn 60 tudi vdo ndm 2011 da chiem 9,9%, vao ndm 2019 ehidm 12,7%, dtf dodn vao nam 2038 se vrfdt 20% va ndm 2049 se Vrfdt 25% Gia hda ddn sdefia Vidt Nam didn sdm va nhanh ydu to' chfi ye'u sau: Ve yeu td sinh, ty sua't sinh da giam ttfdng dd'i nhanh tff 18,6%o vdo nam 2005 xud'ng cdn 14,8%o ndm 2018 (ndm 2019, Tong cue Thdng ke dieu chinh theo ke't qua Tdng Dieu tta ddn sd, ndn dd tang len 16,3%o); ty le tang ttf nhidn da giam tff 13,3%o nam BAMG 1: MQT s CHJ Tlttl C6 LIEM QUAN DEN "GlA" VA "GlAU" c d A Vli,r MAM MAM 2019 ^ M b Ten chi ti&u Ptfti vj linh Sffltf^g,, %0 16,30 Ty 1$ t^ng Oi nhien %c 10,00 Tdng ty suSt sinh Sdcon/phu nO' Tuoi thp binh quan Nam 2,09 73,60 Ty I? ngu'di tren 65 tudi % % GNI binh quan dlu ngtfdi USD/ngifdi Ty le ngtfdi tr^n 60 tudi Nguy ed ndy xudt phdt tff hi$n ttang vd drf bdo tfidi gian tdi ve cde ehi tidu lien quan den "gia" vd "gidu" cfia Viet Nam VS'ndl " g i S h o a " Viet Nam btfdc vdo thdi kJ "ed ed'u J M B l.TJiesinh 12,70 8.30 2.549 Mgu6n: Tdng cue Th6ng kt 11 nCH - NHAN DjNH - DCT B A O Toe dg gia hoa dan so a Viet Nam rat nhanh 2005, xudng edn dffdi 7,8%o ndm 2018 (vd 10%o nam 2019) Tong ty suat sinh da giam tff 2,11 eon/phu nff nam 2005 xudng cdn 2,05 con/phu nff" ndm 2018 (vd cdn 2,09 eon/phu nff ndra 2019) - tffc Id d drfdi mffe sinh thay the - Viydu tdthp, tuli tho trung binh cfia Vidt Nam da tdng vd thude loai cao Neu nam 1960, tudi tho trung binh cua Viet Nam Id 40, ttong cfia thd gidi Id 48 Vidt Nam tiid'p hdn ndm - thi ddn ndm 2019, tudi tiip trung binh cua Viet Nam Id 73,6 nam, ttong cua the gidi Id 71 - Vidt Nam cao hdn 2,6 ndm Tudi tho trung binh cua Vidt Nam cao tiirf ct Ddng Nam A, tiirf 23 d chdu A vd tliff 76 ttdn tiid gidi Vdi'ndl**giau'* Trong thdi k5' "cd eau ddn sd vang", Viet Nam dd dat dffdc nhieu kd't qua tich ctfc Ket qua tich ctfc nhat ttong thdi ky "cd c£u ddn sdvdng", ddng thdi cung Id thdi ky Vidt Nam gia nhdp Td chffc Thrfdng mai Thd gidi (WTO), GDP binh quan dau ngtfdi tinh bang USD theo ty gid hdi doai ndm 2008 dat 1.145 USD - lln dlu tidn vrfdt qua mdc 1.000 USD - Vidt Nam chuyin tff nhdm nrfdc cd thu nhdp thdjp sang nhdm nrfdc ed thu nh$p trung binh, mOt dau an quan ttong ttong phdt trien eua dat ntfdc Nd'u tinh theo ty gid sffc mua tffdng dffdng (PPP) dat 4.075 USD Nhieu chi tieu kinh td- xa hdi ed sff edi thidn ddng kl, xuat khau tdng, ty Id nghdo giam Tuy nhidn, Viet Nam vin dffng trffdc nguy cd "chtfa giau da gid", so vdi "chuan gia", thi ddn sdm, den nhanh, edn so vdi "chuin giau", thi cdn cdch khd xa "Cdch khd xa" drfde xem xet d nhieu gde dp, nhiftig chfi yd'u d gde dd sau: O gde dp thd nhdt, so vdi tieu chi cd bdn nhd't cfia rapt nrfde drfdc coi Id giau, thi GNI binh qudn dau ngrfdi tinh b^ng USD theo ty gid hdi dodi, den ndm 2019 mdi dat 2.549 USD Ndm 2019 so vdi nara 2010, GDP binh qudn dau ngrfdi tinh bang USD theo ty gid 12 hdi dodi tang 108,3%, binh qudn ndm tdng gin 8,5% - dd Id tdc dp tang khd cao Ndu tdng vdi tdc dp nay, d l d^t 20.000 USD/ngtfdi, tiii Vidt Nam phdi md't 25 ndm nffa, tffc Id phdi ddn ndm 2044, Nd'u thdi ky "ed eau ddn sdvdng" cua Vipt Nam ke't thuc vao nam 2025, thi ddn sd' Viet Nam da bffdc vdo gid hda trtfdc gidu khodng 19 ndm O gde dd thd hai, ttong cd cafu kinh td cfia Vidt Nam hidn nay, ty ttpng khu vtfc kinh td ttong ntfdc cdn thlTp, ttong ty trpng khu vtfc cd vdn dau ttf ntfdc ngoai d mffe ldn (ehidm tten 1/5 tdng vd'n dau tff phat trien toan xa hdi, 1/5 GDP, 1/2 gid tri sdn xuCt cdng nghiep, gin 3/4 kim ngach xuat khau Ty ttpng ldn ndy cflng vdi mdt sd ylu td khde (vdn PDI tdng, kilu hdi giam tdc, ODA ffu dai giam vd ehuyin thdnh vay thrfdng mai ) se Id nhihig yeu td ldm cho GNI so vdi GDP cfia Vi$t Nara th^P vd cd xu hrfdng ngdy mdt thap (ndm 2005 bang 98,18%; ndm 2010 edn 96,19%; ndm 2015 cdn 94,87%; ndm 2019 edn khoang 93% va tiep hie gidm ttong nhffng nam tdi) Cf goc dp thd ba, ndi lo "chffa gidu da gia" Id ndi lo "kdp" "Gid" tdc dOng den cd hai dau efia "gidu" O dau thu nbap ndi dung chfi ydu efia "gidu" - thi "gid" da tde ddng dd'n mdt sd ydu td Cii eau lao dpng dang ldm vide cd srf chuyin dich tfieo htfdng; ty ttpng sd lao dpng Iffa mdi ttd gidm (ti/ 15-24 ttidi ndra 2005 Id 21% ndm 2019 c6n 12,5%; trf 25-49 hidi ndm 2005 la 63,3% nam 2019 • I 60,1%); t^ ttpng sd lao ddng d Iffa tudi cao tdng (ttdn 50 tudi ndm 2005 la 16,3%, ndm 2019 la 27,3%) Dieu dd se lam cho mffc nang suat lao ddng vd td'c tang ndng suat lao ddng se khd cao, tinh ndng ddng, sang tao va ffng dung khoa hpe, ky thudt cdng nghd cao, cdng nghe mdi, nhat la thdi ky Cdch mang Cdng nghidp 4.0, Iffa tuli cao se bi han chd' so vdi Iffa tudi tte O dlu chi tidu, tidu thu - ddng Irfe cfia san xuit vd tdng trtfdng - thi "gia" tac ddng den dau "giau" ttdn mdt sd mat Ngtfdi gid cd nhu eau tidu thu, tidu dung thSp hdn ngrfdi tte ea ve sdlrfdng, sdloai, trtnh dd edng nghe, chdl Irfdng hdng hda, dich VIJ Ngrfdi gia co tdm IJ chi tidu tiet kidm d l "tich cdc phong cd" Ngtfdi gid cfia Viet Nam cd khoang 2,8-3 loai bdnh, thtfdng la benh man tinh, ndn ehi phi ve y td, bdo ve sffc kh6e tdng Cde ehinh sdeh xa hOi phai dtfde md rdng va tdng ldn, nhiftig khd theo kip vdi nhu cau Trong dd, ty Id sd' ngtfdi phti thudc trdn sd lao ddng dang lam vipe ngdy mdt gia tdng Tich luy cfia ngtfdi gid d Vidt Nam hidn cdn th^p f N G A N CHAN NGUY CO "CHUA GIAU DA GIA" & Vif T NAM D I ngdn eh^in nguy ed "chtfa gidu da gia ", cin ed ede giai phap tdc ddng vd hai phia Id: (i) Lam chdm td'c dd gid hda dan sd; (U) Tdng tde dp thu nhdp, Uieo do: Thd nhdt Id ldm chdm td'c dd gid hda ddn sd Trong cac giai phdp, can quan tdm de'n vide khuydn khieh sinh de ddi vdi nhilu viing, nhd't la d nhfitig khu vrfc, vung hidn cd ty sud't sinh tiid'p hdn cua ca nrfdc (nhtf: tiianh thi, Ddng Nam Bd, Dong bang sdng Cu^ Long), cdc tinh/thdnh phd trrfe tiiudc Trung tfdng cd ty sud't sinh dtfdi 12%o' Tang tdng t^ suat sinh, nhit Id d khu vtfc thi, vung Ddng Nam Bd, Ddng bKng sdng Cfiti Long, nhCt Id cdc tinh/thdnh phd ed tong ty suat sinh tha'p dtfdi 1,8 con/ phu nff^ Vide khuyen khich sinh dd cd thi md rdng vdi nhilu hinh thffc, nhff: khuydn khieh phti nff kd't hdn (chang han trrfdc 25 tudi vdi nff va trrfdc 30 tudi vdi nam); tang thdi gian nghi thai san Ien ddi vdi thff 2; trd eip cho cac thff Thd hai Id tdng tdc thu nhap di ldm gidu xdt ea ve hai mat Mdt mat, ein khin trtfdng dtfa td'c dp tang GDP binh qudn dlu ngtfdi tinh bang USD tiieo ty gid hd'i dodi Mudn vay, phai tang quy md GDP tinh theo VND (vdi gia so sanh cin dat ttong thdi gian ddi cua ke hoach nam, ehidn lrfdc 10 ndm ) Mat khde, cin tiitfc liidn tdt cdc ndi dung; (1) Md cffa d l vrfa hpc tdp, vffa khai thac nhu eau cua tiii ti-dng thd gidi; (2) Giff dn dinh ldnh te' vT md, lam phdt tha'p vd cd nin tdi ehinh edng b i n vffng; (3) Phdn bd ngudn Iffc theo thi trffdng, de thi trrfdng dilu tiet ngudn life; (4) Co dpi ngu lao ddng vd bp mdy hanh chinh ed ndng Irfc, xffng ddng drfdc tin cay, cd quydt tdm thfic dly tang trffdng ddng bd va ldu ddi; (5) Cd chien Iffde "phat triln hrfdng ve trfdng lai": khuydn khich tilt kidm tieu dfing vd tid't kidm tdi nguydn, bao ddm ldi ieh dau tff ddi han cua ngffdi ddn va doanh nghidp, ffu tidn ngudn Irfc dlu tff ddi han efia ngffdi ddn va doanh nghidp, rfu tien ngudn Itfc dau tff cdng eho xay diftig ting, bao vd tdi nguydn cho phdt triln ben viftig Nhtf vgy, phdi cd tdng tiirdng eao tff 7% ttd len ttong 2-3 thgp nidn Id dilu kidn can Ngodi ra, cin phai dn dinh ty gia VND/USD d l tinh b^ng USD tiieo ty gid hdi doai mdi dat ket qud eao Mud'n dn dinh ty gid, ein kilm sodt lam phdt theo muc tidu, tang Iffdng ngoai td ve Vidt Nam trf cdc ngudn (xuit khiu, khu vffc kinh te cd vd'n dau tif trtfc tidp ntfdc ngodi (FDI), ddng vdn dau tif ntfdc ngoai gidn tid'p (FII), chi tieu cua khdch qudc td dd'n Viet Nam ) gidm thilu tdm ly cS't trQ ngoai td Mat khde, giam chdnh 10ch giffa GNI vd GDP tten cd sd tdng manh hdn thu nhdp thuin tfiy tff ntfdc ngoai, giam ehi ntfdc ngoai • ^ J : A I LIEU THAM J O l A o _ I Tdng cue Thd'ng ke (2019) Sdliiu thd'ng ki, Ddn sdvd lao ddng ^ Quy Ddn sdLien hdp qud'c tai Viet Nam (2011) Gid hda ddn sovd ngUdi cao tuoi d Viit Nam: Thuc trpng di^ bdo vd mgt sd khuyen nghi chinh sdch, ttuy cap tiif https;//viettiam.unfpa.org/sites/ default/file's/pub-pdf/Ageing%20report_VIE_27.07%20%281%29.pdf Tdng cue Dan sd (2019) Ty sudt ehet thd theo thdnh thj/ndng thdn vd viing, 2008-2018, tiny cap tit http://gopfp.gov.vn/ttang-tui-ehi-tiet-so-lieu/-/chi-tiet/ty-suat-chet-tiio-tiieo-tiianh-thi-nong-tiionva-vung-2008-2018-9505-5.httnl I Cic tinh/thanh phd tnJc thudc Tmng iTdog cd t^ suS't sinh dtfdi 12%o gdm; Dong ThSp Tay Ninh, Bae Lieu KhSnh Hoa B^n Tre, VTnh Long, BA Ria - Viing Tku, TP Hd Ch! Minh, Hau Giang, Sdc Trang An Giang Tiln Giang, Can Thd Thii Binh ^ i Cdc llnh/thinh phd c6 tdng ty sufft sinh thSp dtfdi 1.8 con/phu nit gdm: TP Ho Chi Minh, Dong Thdp, Khdnh H6a, T^y Nmh, Binh Dtfdng, Ba Ria • Vung Tau, Bae Lieu, CSn Thd Tiln Giang, Sdc TrSng Ca Mau An Giang H§u Giang 13 ... Vidt Nam da tdng vd thude loai cao Neu nam 1960, tudi tho trung binh cua Viet Nam Id 40, ttong cfia thd gidi Id 48 Vidt Nam tiid'p hdn ndm - thi ddn ndm 2019, tudi tiip trung binh cua Viet Nam. .. tudi tiip trung binh cua Viet Nam Id 73,6 nam, ttong cua the gidi Id 71 - Vidt Nam cao hdn 2,6 ndm Tudi tho trung binh cua Vidt Nam cao tiirf ct Ddng Nam A, tiirf 23 d chdu A vd tliff 76 ttdn... 20.000 USD/ngtfdi, tiii Vidt Nam phdi md't 25 ndm nffa, tffc Id phdi ddn ndm 2044, Nd'u thdi ky "ed eau ddn sdvdng" cua Vipt Nam ke't thuc vao nam 2025, thi ddn sd' Viet Nam da bffdc vdo gid hda