:< ^ THI THUONG T«l CHJMH Oat van tfe Trin thi trudng, tdm ly cdc nha ddu tu tudn chi phdi rdt ldn den mde dd on dfnh cOa thi trudng, dgc biit la doi TJillJILYNiiJlllAUTII TRiNTH! TRUONG TAI CHfNH VIET NAM vdi thi trUdng tdi chinh, stf tdc dong ci^a yeu t6 tdm ly ludn diin bien rdt •SJ>G5'., TS Nguyin Trgng Tdi * phdc tgp, Ichien thj tn/dng tdi chinh ludn tiem dn yeu to bdt Sn dinh rdt p h l t t r i l n , t f l dd giup thflc day nen cao Id nhdn to chu chot gdy cdc kinh t l - xa hpi phat t r i l n cudc hodng logn thi trudng, thj trudng tai chfnh cang bj rung \k manh hon, d d d c chfnh sach tai chfnh tien te se bj suy g i l m h i i u luc khiin Tam ly NDT tren thj trUdng t l i cho viec trien khai cdc chinh sdch ehfnh la su phan anh thai efla Tdm /y tu tin thdi qud cua NDT dan kinh te vi mo luon gap rdt nhieu kho NDT trude c l e d i l n bien cfla thj den logi tdm ly tgc quan hodc bi quan khdn, thgm chi ket qud di nguac so trudng tai chinh Bat c f l dien b i l n thdi qud vdi muc tieu ky vong nao cfla thj trUdng tai chinh deu t i e Lac quan la mot trang thai tam ddng tflc thdi d i n dien b i l n t i m ly ly tfeh cue, nd giflp cho ngudi efla NDT vugt qua nhflng hoan c l n h sdng Doi vdi Viet Nam, stf tdc dong cuo yeu to tdm ly tren thi trudng nhtfng nam qua Id rdt phUc tap, gdy n/iuvig he qud xdu, de doa mdt on T r i n thj trudng tai ehinh Vift Nam, NDT cd d c dac d i l m tam iy sau: dinh kinh te vi mo, an ninh tai chinh Thiif nhat, tdm ly tutin thdi qua'' khdng dugc bdo ddm Thtfc te ndy ddt yeu cdu cdn phdi co cdc nghien cdu nghiem tuc vesUdnh hudng cda tdm ly cdc nhd dau tu trin thi trudng tdi chinh, tien te d Viet Nam Bdi viit ndy tap trung de cap den nhtfng dgc diem tdm ly nha ddu tuva sutac dgng cua nd tdi stf on dinh cOa thf trudng tdi chinh Viet Nam nhtfng ndm qua, ttf do, tdc gid dua mdt so khuyen nghj chinh sdch nhdm on dmh tdm ly cdc nha dau tU nhtfng ndm tdi Dae d i l m t i m 1]^ chung efla ngudi Viet Nam la nang dpng va linh hoat, vOi tam ly giflp cho ngudi Viet Nam de thfch flng vdi mgi hoan c l n h Cd le tam 1^ xuat phat t f l h o l n canh sdrrg efla ngudi Viet tflxa xUa cho d i n ludn phai ddi mat vOi dieu kien thien tai khae nghift, lai p h l i thudng x u y i n chdng lai d c t h l luc ngoai bang xam lugc va chinh vi co tfnh nang ddng linh boat gid bat ipi, t f l giflp ngufli vUgt qua mgi kho khan t h i c h thflc Chfnh nhd ngudi Viet Nam cd tam ly lac quan, ludn tin v i o sflc manh npi tai, nen chflng ta da chien thang tat e l d e k i thfl x l m luge, eho dfl d6 la nhflng cUdng qudc ngoai bang.Tuy vly, n l u lae quan t h l i q u i thl khdng hSn (a mpt Uu the, bdi rat cdthe ngudi khdng nhan thflc h i t dupc nhflng rao c l n , hay ndi d c h khac, tam ly rat de k h i l n eon n g u ^ ed t h l i "bat chap" Vdi thai b^t chap, vap p h l i nhflng r i o cln khdng the vupt qua dupc, cd t h l nay, nen eho du bat cfl dieu k h i l n ngudi ta ed tam ly bi quan, k i f n v l hoan d n h nao thi ngUdi chan n l n va lai de sa lay vao tam \j Dac tfi^m tam ly nha tfau tU tren thj trUtfng tai chfnh Viet Nam Viet ludn de dang thfch tfng chfl bi quan T r i n thi trudng tai ehinh, khdng chju k h u i t phuc, khdng bj tam i^ lae quan s i giflp eho cac Co t h l h i l u nhd ddu tu (NDT) Id d l n h mat b i n s3c dan tgc Trin thj NDT kinh doanh bj thua 16 cflng ngudi thtfc hien cdc hogt ddng ddu trudng tai ehfnh, tfnh nang ddng khdng bj mat tinh than.Tuy vly, neu tu tren nhtfng phdn khuc thi trUdng va linh hoat se giflp e l c NDT ludn NDT ed tam ly lae quan t h l i q u i thl khde nhau, dudi cdc hinh thtfc khde t u t i n va flng p h d rat nhanh vdi eac rat de bj cudn vao d c hoat dpng nham thu dugc cdc Igi ich theo dien bien cOa thj trudng, vay, kinh doanh cho dfl dang bj thua 16 ky vgng NDT bao ham c l NDT t d su han c h l nhat djnh ve nhan thflc v l khdng b i l t d i n d i l m dflng va ehflc va NDT d mdt NDT bi thua 16 qua Idn thl nhan Trong moi thi trudng ( c l v l d c giao djch tren nen kinh te, NDT ed vai trd rat quan thj trudng lan thdng tin thi trUOng), rat de bj c h u y l n sang t h l i cue khac trgng, bdi hp la ngudi khai pha cac nen su linh hoat va n l n g dpng dd la bi quan q u i mflc Su bi quan ca hdi dau t u nen kinh te, rat de nghieng sang t h l i cue de bj qua mflc cfla cac NDT s i k h i l n thj giflp bd sung nguon lUc cho dau t u dao ddng Vdi thien hUdng de bj trudng tai chfnh bi ddng bang keo * Hoc vl^n Ngan hang ^ dao dgng trudc d e dien bien bat d l i , d d c l e chfnh sach tai c h f n h i thuOng cua thj trudng, se khien cho t i l n t f se bj suy g l i m h i i u luc TAP CHi NGAN HANG | SO 13 | THANG 7/2016 I TH| TRadNG TAI CHINK ^ ^ Thijf h a i , tdm ly hoi tiic^ nghiep chua eao tham gia tren sach ma NDT eo the Igi dung de true Dae diem tam ly ngUdi V i i t la thj trudng tai chinh, thdng tin tren Igi d n h l n , g l y phuang hai d i n Ipi sdng thien v l t m h e l m (duy tinh thj trUdng tai chinh thieu minh ich chung - lam h i f u luc cfla chfnh hon ly), dieu n l y cd ngudn gdc bach, giao djeh ndi gian chua dugc sleh tai chfnh bj suy giam t f l v l n hda phuong Odng cung nhu k i l m s o l t t d t khien eac NDT ehinh t f l nhflng khd khan t h i i n thudng hanh xfl theo dam ddng tai, djch hpa ma ngudi ludn Tam ly da va dang tiep tue g l y p h l i ddi mat va d l cd the "sdng d c vu h o i n g loan tren thj trudng chung" vdi nhflng hoan c l n h khac tai ehinh Tfl dat yeu cau vdi n g h i f t thi b3t bude ngudi eac n h i chfle trach la phai biet n l m p h l i doan ket vdi nhau, sutfnh t o l n " t h i i t han"thudng it dupc dat cac quan h f cdng ddng Xet tren khfa canh thl day la mdt Uu d i l m , nd eho phep gSn k i t d c cdng ddng vdi va ngudi ft ttnh b i t dugc xu hudng van hanh dam ddng t r i n co sd p h l i " n l m duoc ngudi cd toe" thl elc chinh sach tai chinh mdi cd hieu luc' Thtf t a , (dm ly bdo todn - khdng muon mdt mdf Thfl' n d m , tam ly dtfa vdo kinh nghiim^ Khi de cap d i n to ehat efla ngudi V i i t Nam hien cd kha nhieu quan diem khie nhau: Cd y k i l n eho r i n g ngudi V i i t Nam cd td chat thdng minh - duge the h i f n qua ele ky thi hgc sinh gidi qudc te d hau h i t cac mdn hpe bae trung hpc phd thdng hole thi nang khieu nghe Tuy vay, cung khdng it y kien cho rang ngUdi V i i t Nam khdng thdng toan c l nhln.Trong boat ddng kmh Tren thi trudng tai chfnh Viet Nam, minh, ma chi la "lanh lpi" - t h l hien te ndi chung, nhat la tren thj trudng NDT thudng la nhflng ngUdi e d t i l n d ehd ngudi Vift Nam chi gidi " b i t tai chfnh, d i e d i l m t i m ly ehi tiet k i f m va vifc phan bd cac k h o l n chudc, lam theo" chfl ft cd k h i nang phdi rat manh tdi cac quyet djnh tien tiet kiem n h u t h e nao hoan sang tao nhu ngudi Trung Qudc, efla NDT, ay, NDT t h i i n v l y l u toan phu thudc vao trang t h l i tam td d m tfnh d nhan de dUa d c iy cfla hg Khi NDT cd tam ly bi quan q u y l t djnh dau t u cfla mlnh (thay vl eflng cd nghta rang hg it tin v i o d c quyet dinh dau tU theo sU mach chinh sleh t l i chfnh, hay ndi each b i o cfla ly tri) Han nfla, triet ly sdng "duy tinh" de dan d i n sU n l nang d c quan h i tai chinh, coi nhe d e rang bupc t r i e h n h i f m Su Idng leo hoat dpng tai chfnh d l d i n d i n nhflng rfli ro v d tai chfnh, bdi vl t r i l t I]? "duy tinh han ly"se khien cho ngudi ta cd t i m ly "el t i n " de bj du d6 vao eac cam b3y t l i ehfnh khac tam ly bi quan ehinh la sU p h l n flng efla NDT vdi mdi trudng chinh sach va nd cflng ddng thOi N h l t B i n , H i n Qudc Day chfnh la loai tam ly "thfeh di theo loi mdn" cua ngUOi Viet Nam.Trin thj trUdng tai chinh, tam ly khien cho viec t r i l n khai cle cdng eu tai chinh mdi rat khd khan hlnh nen loai tam l y " t u b i o v f b i n than" - la mdt van de tat yeu vdi d c NDT tren nhuTig thj trUOng tai chfnh t h i l u minh bach^ N l u nhU tam ly n l y dien bien phflc tap cd Cac nhan to chi phdi tam lyNDT Thvtnhdt, nang luc cua NDT han che t h l hlnh loai tam ly mdi khie Nang luc cfla NDT cd t h l dUgc - tam ly ddi chgi chinh sleh; vdi nhin n h l n tren cac gdc dp: (i) Trinh tam ly nay, cle NDT ludn cho rSng dp c h u y i n mdn; (ii) Kinh n g h i f m Th uT ba, tdm ly bdy ddn^ v i i c ban hanh d c chfnh sleh tai dau tu Cac ket q u i khao s i t n g h i i n CIc cugc chay dua n l n g lai suat ehfnh ehlng qua chf 6e d m d o l n , o cflu v l nang lue cfla cac NDT tren thi (LS) huy dpng cfla cac NHTM xuat ep, b i t d c NDT vao ele khudn khd trudng chflng khoan V i i t Nam efla p h l t t f l flng x f l cfla ngudj gfli t i l n , khdng cd lpi v l vl vay cac NDT Nguyin Dfle Hien (2012) cho thay: nhflng ddng ngudi lu lugt chd ludn tim d c h de doi chpi vdi chfnh Ve trinh hgc vdn^: Cd tdi 76% chUc tai d c tiem kim hoan de mua sach, " l i c h " chfnh sach mien cd NDT chflfng k h o l n cd trinh 6g cao Igi eho e l nhan NDT Cfng phd vOi d i n g , dai hgc, han nfla, cac NDT v i n g , d c lan sdng mua ban ehflng k h o l n , d e hoat dpng dau co ngoai te nhflng nam qua cho thay rang "hanh x f l theo dam ddng" la mdt d i e d i l m tam ly cfla ngUdi Vift Nam tren thj trddng tai chfnh.Tam ly xuat p h l t t f l nhieu nguyen nhan: Kinh n g h i f m it va tinh chuyen loai tam ly nay, cac nha lam chfnh sach tren thj trudng tai chfnh khdng chl p h l i quan tam den v i i c ban hanh ele chfnh sach cho "dep" ve ndi dung, ma rat d n p h l i quan t i m den vife lam the nao de "bjt" ele ke h d d c van b i n chfnh chfl yeu lam nganh tai chinh -ngan h l n g (NH) Ve t