Giáo trình phân tích phát triển nông thôn

TK M 000111 MAI VAN XUAN (Chu bien) II DONG THE - BUI OLFC TINH GIAO TRINH V PHAN TICH KINH TE NONG HO PGS TS Mai Van Xuan (chu bien) PGS.TS Bui Dung Thl - TS Bui Dire Tmh GIAO TRINH PHAN TICH KINH TE NONG HO NHA XUAT BAN DAI HQC HUE NSm 2010 Bien muc tren xuat ban pham cua Thu vien Quoc gia Viet Nam Mai Van Xu&n Giao trinh phan tfch kinh te n6ng h6 / B.s.: Mai Van Xuan (ch.b.), Bui Dung Till, Bui Dure Tmh - Hue : Dai hoc Hue, 2010 -1 16tr.; 24cm Kinh te n&ng nghiep Phan tfch kinh te H6 nong dan Giao trinh 338.1 -dcl4 DUE0007p-CIP Ma so sach: GT/ 164 -2010 n LCH G icn THIEU Chuang trinh tap huln Kinh doanh Nong nghiep Agribiz dugc thilt k l nhim cung clp cho nong dan va can bo khuyen aong kiln thuc va ky nang din thilt lmh vuc kinh doanh aong nghiep Chuang trinh tap huan Agribiz dugc FEDS va LU thilt k l theo dir an Agribiz dugc chuang trinh CARD tai trg thong qua td chuc AusAID cua Chinh phu Uc Thong qua phan rich tinh hinh kinh te va kinh doanh nong nghiep cua Viet Nam, chung toi nhan thiy nhu clu tap huan nong dan va cac can bo khuyln nong cac ky nang va kien thuc lmh vuc kinh doanh nong nghiep de phat trien nong aghiep va ndng thon b ln virng la rlt cap thilt FEDS, vdi kinh aghiem va kha nang cua minh viec tap huan va huang din ahieu nghien curu va du an khac ve lmh vuc kinh doanh adng nghiep, c6 kha nang dam nhan dugc cong viec quan trpng Cach tilp can tap huln cua FEDS dugc mo hinh hoa, io su dung co k it qua cac kinh nghiem va mo hinh dao tao cua Dai hgc Lincoln- New Zealand da dugc ung dung cong d nhieu nuac khac * •> Bon giao trinh tap huln dugc thiet ke sau xem xet ky boi canh kinh te va nong nghiep tai Viet Nam, dac biet la d mien Trung Viet Nam Giao trinh thu nhatc Thiet ke khoa hoc va phuomg ohap tap huan cho nong dan, dugc thiet ke cho cac khoa ToT:huang trinh tap huln dugc thiet ke theo thur tu dan xen Giao trinh thur hai Phan tich kinh t i nong h&, tilp theo la giao trinh Marketing va ohan tich chuoi cung nong nghiep; giao trinh cuoi cung la Ho nong dan - phuomg phdp lap ke hoach san xuat kinh doanh Cac giao r r \ t r in r tiinh tap hu&n lien ket chat che voi nhau, la nln tang cho su phat tnen ke tiep cac giao trinh khac, la ca so quan cho cong tac lap k l hoach kinh doanh cua nong ho Cac giao trinh tap huin dur tmh se giup n6ng dan san xult co hieu qua hon, ling dung thong tin t6t horn va co thl tu minh phat trien he thong trang trai ben vumg Boi voi can b6 khuyen nong, chuong trinh se nang cao cac ky ndng va kiln thuc kinh doanh nong nghipp de hp cd the cung cap cac dich vu kinh doanh nong nghiep can thilt cho nong dan * r ^ / f Voi cac chu d6 nhu: kinh t l nong ho/trang trai; phan tich nguon lure; phan tich hoat dpng san xuat kinh doanh; phan tich rui ro va mot nghien curu trudng hop giao trinh Phan tich Kinh te Nong ho se cung cap cho hoc vien kien thurc va ki n&ng can thilt d l ho co th l tilp can va phan tfch nong ho, giup nong ho bilt su dung co hieu qua ede nguon lure d l tang thu nh$p va hieu qua san x u it kinh doanh dap urng dupe muc tieu cua ho Bay la tap tai lieu dupe bien bien soan Cong phu, co su phli hop chat che giura cac can b6 giang day cua Trucmg Bai hoc Kinh tl Hue voi ede chuyen gia cua Bai hoc Lincoln, duoc chinh sua nhieu lan tren co so y kien cua nguoi hoc, cac nhd khoa hoc va quan ly Chung t6i xin tran gioi thieu tai lipu TS Sandra Martin Giao su vc Quan ly Kinh doanh N6ng nghiep va Phat trien; Giam doc Trung tam Phat trien Quoc tl (LUCID), BH Lincoln; P O Box 84, Lincoln University, New Zealand IV L& I CAM ON De hoan giao trinh tap huin nay, thay mat cho Ban Quan ly Dvr an Agribiz va can bo Khoa Kinh tl va Phat triln (FEDS), Dai hoc Kinh tl Hul, chting toi xin bay to su cam om sau sic den T6 chuc Tai trg cua Chfnh phu Uc (AusAID) va chuong tiinh CARD cua Bo Nong nghiep va PMt triln Nong thon ve sir hop tac chat che, co hieu qua va giup da tai chfnh Toi xin cam cm su dong gop y kien va cung cdp thong tin cua cac Sor Nong nghiep va Phat triln Nong thon va cac ca quan co lien quan miln Trung, dac biet la cua tinh triln khai thuc hien du an: Nghe An, Quang Ngai, Kontum va Thira Thien Hul Trong qua trinh bien soan culn giao trinh, chung toi luon nhan dugc su dong gop qui bau ve kien thurc, kinh nghiem tir cac chuyen gia cua Dai hoc Lincoln, dac biet la cua GS Sandra Martin; GS Keith Woodford, TS Miranda Cain; nhung dong gop va tu v£n cua ong Steward Pittaway, giam doc LI Ltd cua Dai hoc Lincoln, cua ong Keith Milligan, c6 win k! thuat cua chuong trinh CARD r r r Su biet cm cua chung toi xin gui den cac can bo khuyen nong, nhung nguoi nong dan da tham gia vao viec cung cap cac th6ng tin va kinh nghiem quf gia v l kinh doanh nong nghiep cua ho; toi chan thknh cam on cac dong nghiep v l thod gian va su nhiet tinh ma ho da dong g6p cho cac giao trinh tap huan Giao trinh dang dugc phat triln, su dung cho cac hoat dong dao tao can bo khuyen nong ve kinh doanh nong nghiep No cung co thl la tai lieu tham khao rlt b l fch cho cac can bo nghien ctjru vk giang day ve kinh te va kinh doanh nong nghiep Tuy nhien, day la mot lmh vuc kha mdi me a Viet Nam, vai thai gian va kinh nghiem han chi, giao trinh kho tranh khoi v nhung h$n chi va thieu sot Vi vay, chung toi mong doi sur dong gop cua cac t6 chuc, ca nhan dd co co so chinh sura dap ling tot hon yeu ciu cua cong cu6c dao tao cdn b§ lmh vuc kinh doanh nong nghiep PGS TS Mai Van Xuan Truong Khoa Kinh td v&Phat tridn Giam die Du an Agribiz Truong Dai hoc Kinh td Hud 100 Phung Hung, Tp Hud, Viet Nam VI M yc LUC LC5I GlCtt THIEU ii LCtt CAM ON iv CAC THUAT NGLT VIET TAT ix c h u O n g l k in h t e n o n g h Q v A t r a n g t r a i 1.1 Kinh t! nong ho 1.1.1 Khai niem ve kinh tS nong ho 1.1.2 Tlnh tat yeu khach quan vb sir t6n tai va phat triln kinh t6 nong ho 1.1.3 Su hinh va phat trien kinh tb nong ho a Viet Nam 1.1.4 Xu huong phat triln kinh t6 nong ho a Viet Nam 15 1.2 KINH TE TRANG TRAI 18 1.2.1 Khai niem wb kinh te trang trai 18 1.2.2 Phan biet kinh te ho va kinh t6 trang trai 22 1.2.3 Quan di6m va chfnh sach phat triln kinh t§ trang trai 24 CHUONGII: NGUON LlTC CUA NONG H0 2.1 KHAl NIEM NGUON LlTC CUA N6NG HQ 33 33 2.2 CAC LOAI NGUON LI/C CUA NONG H 33 2.3 Y NGfflA PHAN TICH NGUON LU*C CUA NONG HQ 36 2.4 NQI DUNG PHANTICH NGUON LUC CUA NONG HQ 37 2.4.1 Phan tich ngu6n lao dong cua n6ng hO 37 vii 2.4.2 Phan tfch ngu6n dat dai cua n6ng ho 42 2.4.3 Phkn tfch ngudn v6n vk TLSX n6ng hp 57 CHl/ONG III: PHAN TICH HOAT DONG SAN XUAt KINH DOANH CUA NONG HO 76 3.1 KHAl NIEM VE PHAN TICH HOAT B0N G SXKD CUA NONG HO 76 3.2 Y NGHIA PHAN TICH HOAT D0NG s AN XUAt KINH DOANH CUA NONG HO 77 3.3 N 0I DUNG PHAN TICH HOAT B0NG s AN XUAt KINH DOANH CUA NONG HO 77 3.3.1 Phan tfch chi phf san xukt 78 3.3.2 Phan tfch k it qua san xuat kinh doanh cua nong ho 84 3.3.3 Phan tfch hieu qua san xuat kinh doanh cua ho 87 3.4 PHAN TICH CHI TIEU VA B 0I SONG CUA HO 90 3.5 NANG CAO HIEU QUA SAN XUAT KINH DOANH VA THU NHAP CUA NONG HO 92 CHUONGIV: PHAN TICH RUIRO CUA NONG HO 96 4.1 PHAN TICH RUI RO 96 4.1.1 Rui ro san xukt kinh doanh cua nong ho la gi? 96 4.1.2 Tai ho phai phan tfch rui ro? 97 4.2 CAC LOAI RUI RO CUA NONG HO 98 4.2.1 Rui ro thien tai 98 4.2.2 Giao dong cua thi truong 98 viii 4.2.3 Su khong chac chin diiu kien xa hoi 99 4.2.4 Chfnh sach cua Nha nude 100 4.3 BIEN PHAP PHONG CH6NG VA KHAC PHUC RUIRO 100 4.3.1 Du doan dl de phong va giam bat rui ro 100 4.3.2 Chu dong san se rui ro 101 4.3.3 Chia se rui ro vdi cong d6ng 102 4.3.4 Chap nhan de khac phuc rui ro 102 IX Trong : Hb, hb - Hieu qua kinh te can bien Q - Luang kit qua tang them C - Luang chi phi tang them Hb - The hien niu tang them mot dan vi chi phi se tang them bao nhieu don vi ket qua Hb - Thl hien dl tang them mot dan vi ket qua, can tang them bao nhieu dan vi chi phi r Cac chi tieu co y nghla rat quan trong phan tfch kmh te Vi quy luat can bien la nguyen ly quan dieu chinh hanh vi cua nong ho dau tu phat trien san xuat r y Tuy muc dich tinh toan, ma cac chi tieu d mlu s6 va tur si cua cac cong thuc tren co thl thay d6i r4t linh hoat Vi du, k6t qua san xuat co thl dugc tfnh toan la: ting gia tri san xuit (GO), thu nhap hin hop (MI) hay loi nhuan kinh ti rong (NB) Tuang tu, cac chi tieu chi phi san xuat (C) cung co thi thay doi rat linh hoat Vf du, chi phi san xuat co the dugc su dung la: Tong chi phi san xuat; chi phi san xuat bang tien cua ho (Cbt) ? r / y y Bai tap 3.3: Phan tfch hieu qua hoat dong san xudt kinh doanh cua ho - Truong hgp san xuit Cam d ho anh Dang Thanh Thuy, thon Tan Thinh, xa Nghla Hieu, huyen NghTa Dan, tinh Nghe An bM tap si 3.3 - Anh chi hay xac dinh: + Thu nhap h in hgp san xuit cam cua anh Thuy nam 2005? + Lgi nhuan san xuat cam cua anh Thuy nam 2005? 89 + Lgi nhuan tfnh tren trdng cam cua anh Thuy n&m 2005? M 0T SO K l HIEU CAN NHO GO - T 6ng gia tri san xult MI - Thu nhap hon hap NB - Lai nhuan kinh tl rong C - Tong chi phi xu&t r r Ctt - Chi phi san xuat true tiep i - Lai suat T - Thul Ckh - Chi phi khau hao TSCD Cbt - Chi phi san xuat chi tra bang tiSn Ch Chi phi san xuat tu co cua ho gia dinh 3.4 p h A n t i c h c h i t i e u v a dcji s o n g c u a h o Phan tfch chi tieu cua nong ho nham xet xet co cau chi tieu cua ho gia dinh nhu thl nao (chi cho san xuat, cho cho tieu dung va tfch luy) Banh gia duoc mure song cua nong ho (nong ho thuoc vao loai nao: giau, trung binh, hay ngheo) Tren co so viec phan tfch chi tieu dd tim each thutc chi tieu hop ly ngubn thu nhap han che cua nong ho, tim cac giai phap cai thien dbi s6ng Vf du: K 6t qua phan tfch kinh t! cua cac ho dieu tra tai huyen Phu Loc, Thua Thien - Hu6 nam 2009, dirge thl hien d bang sau: 90 Bang 3.1 K it qua san xudt va thu nhap cua nong ho d huyen Phu Loc, tinh Thira Thien Hul, 2009 Cv cau MI (%) 20,9 Trong trot 12.564 6.590 Thu nhap hon hop 1000d 5.974 Chan nuoi 9.300 5.200 4.100 14,4 Lam nghiep 11.430 6.423 5.007 17,5 Nuoi tr6ng thuy san 9.800 5.734 4.066 14,2 Lam cong an luong 2.457 950 1.507 5,3 Tiln cai, ba gui ve Thu tu dich vu 5.000 200 4.800 16,8 5.700 3.400 2.300 Thu nhap khac (tien lai) TONG THU NHAP 790 790 8,1 2,8 57.041 28.497 28.544 100 Nguon thu nhap cua hg Gia trj SX (loood Chi phi SX (loood) Ngudn: rfieu tra thuc te cua die an Agribiz, nam 2009 K 6t qua vd ca clu chi tieu cua gia dinh (ngoai chi phi san xudt dugc thl hien d bang tren), cac ho gia dinh vdi thu nhap tuong doi thap phai trang trai rlt nhieu khoan chi phi sinh hoat khac (xem bang dudi) Co the khang dinh ring muc s6ng cua cac ho gia dinh nong dan dang gap rdt nhieu kho khan va cac giai phap nhSm cai thien thu nhap va nang cao mure song cho ngudi dan dang la nhu cau cap bach cua cac dia phuong d nude ta Theo do, chuong trinh hanh dong cua Chinh phu gom 48 quy hoach, chuong trinh, dd an cu thl nhim xay dimg nSn nong nghiep phat triln toan dien theo hudng hien dai r y 91 r Bang 3.2 Mire chi tiSu binh quan hg gia dinh/thang Cac khoan chi Mire chi (1000 d) 378 Cu cau (%) 23,2 Chi Sn uong Quanao 100 6,2 Giao due 250 15,4 Kham chura benh 90 5,5 Ma chay cuai hoi 198 12,2 Dien, nuac, dien thoai 180 11,1 Sua chua nha cua 170 10,5 Mua sim vat diing gia dinh 130 8,0 Chi khac 130 8,0 1.626 100,0 TONG CHI SINH HOAT Nguon: dieu tra thuc te cua du an Agribiz, ndm 2009 Chuang trinh huang tdi muc tieu nang cao thu nhap cua dan cu nong thon t&ng hem 2,5 lin so vdi hien Mot nhung nhiem vu chu yeu cua chuang trinh den nam 2020 la tiep tuc trien khai d6ng bo, c6 hieu qua d dia ban n6ng thon cac chuang trinh muc tieu qu6c gia da dugc phe duyet, d6ng thoi se triln khai xay dung mod chuang trinh muc tieu qu6c gia ve xay dung n6ng thon mai, ve thfch ung vdi su biln doi khf hau va ve dao tao nguon nhan lire nong thon r r r v 3.5 NANG CAO HIEU QUA SAN XUAT KINH DOANH VA THU NHAP CUA NONG HO Giang vien dua tinh hudng d l cac nhom phan tfch va dua cac phuang an dl nang cao thu nhap va hieu qua san xuit kinh doanh cua ho 92 Bai tap 3.4: tinh hudng nang cao thu nhap cua nong ho Truong hop san xult Cam or ho anh Dang Thanh Thuy, thon Tan Thinh, xa NghTa Hidu, huyen NghTa Dan, tinh Nghe An dua tren co so tinh huong bai tap so 3.3 r jr Tinh huong: (1) Nhu'bai tap 3.3 (2) Do lao dong thue hai cam khong co, nen anh quydt dinh dung lao dong cua gia dinh hai toan bo cam ma kh6ng thue lao dong Ndu gia dinh anh hai cam, thoi gian hai se dai ra, nen sin luong thu hai va thori dilm ban cam co khac Cu thl san luong: - din dku vu (hai sdm), ban voi gia 3.000.000 dong/tan - tan chfnh vii, ban vdi gia 2.800.000 dong/tin - tan cuoi vu, ban vdi gia 2.900.000 dong/tan - Khoing t&n hai khong kip, hu hong (3) Anh Thuy ban ca san luong vudn cam n&m 2005 cho ong Thien buon cam vdi gia ca vudn cam nam 2005 la 26.000.000 ddng Duoc bilt, trudng hop anh Thuy khong phai mua dung cu cham soc va thu hai nam 2005 Anh chi hay xac dinh cac bien phap khac de nang cao thu nhap h6n hop hoat dong thu hoach va ban cam nam 2005 cua anh Thuy? Theo anh chi, anh Thuy nen chon tinh hudng hoac tinh hudng , giai thich vi sao? cd sd lieu chumg minh Ket thue bai tap, giang vien dua mot sd ket luan va bien phap sau: - Cach thay tfdi nao tot nhat lam tang thu nhap cua hg Cac ho cd the so sanh cac each khac dm xem each nho la each tot nhit la tang thu nhap cua ho r 93 - Thay doi nham giam chi phi: Cac ho c6 the so sanh chi phi tir cac ylu to nguon luc dua vao san xuat cua ho voi va voi thi trucmg Tir quylt dinh sir dung nguln luc hien tai hoac thay doi nguon cua ho hoac thue muon nguon luc tren thi truong Mot so cac truong hop cu thi thay doi nham lam giam chi phi san xuit: Trong dieu kien san lucmg san pham lam khong doi hoac tang len, ho co the: + Thay d li nguon luc cua ho lam chi phi giam hoac su dung nguln luc du thira thay nguln luc khan hiem de co loi hom > / + Lua chon nguon luc ben ngoai co chi phi thap thay cho nguln luc cua ho co chi phi cao Vi du thue lao dong thdi vu thay cho thue lao dong thuong xuyen; thue may moc thiet bi thoi gian ngan thay vi phai bo von mua may moc thiet bi r r r + Thay dli lich thoi vu nhim dilu chinh thcri gian san xuat su dung khli luomg nguln luc ft khan hiem va gia ca thlp » r ^ - Thay doi nham tang doanh thu hoac tang gia tri san xuat: ho hoan toan co the lua chon thoi gian thu hoach va thcri gian ban san phim dl tang doanh thu hoac tang gia tri san xuat Cac trucmg hop thay dli nhlm tang doanh thu hoac t&ng gia tri san xult thudmg gap: + Thay dli lich thoi vu scrm hon hay muon hon dl chon thoi diem thu hoach co san pham dau khan hiem va gia ban cao hon so chinh vu + Thay dli nguon luc dau vao, dac biet la yeu to cong nghe moi de tang khoi luong san pham san xuat r r + Thay d li khau tieu thu san phim nhu khuyen mai, giam gia, hau dai nhim tang khoi luong tieu thu d l tang doanh thu \ 94 - Thay doi lich thai vu, thay doi co cau mua vu, ca cdu cay trong, vat nudi: Thay d6i lich thai vu dS tranh thien tai dich benh va su dung hap ly dau vao co gia ca thap va tieu thu san pham dau vdi gia ban cao Thay doi ca cau mua vu nhu san xuat vu dong va dong xuan, bo he thu Thay ddi ca cau cay trong, vat nuoi theo ^ / huang cay trong, vat nuoi co gia tri kinh te cao se r * f f f > r - Thay doi phucmg huomg san xuat va nganh nghe dich vu: mot s6 truang hop, san xu4t nganh nghe dich vu hien tai khong co hieu qua, ho can suy nghl san xuSt nganh ngh€ dich vu khac phu hop voi thi truang, nang cao hieu qua san xuat 95 CHlTONG IV PHAN TICH RUIRO CUA NONG HO * Muc tieu Ket thuc chu de nay, cac hoc vien co the hieu: * - Rid ro san xuat kinh doanh cua ho la gi? Tam quart trong viec phdn tick rid ro san xuat kinh doanh cua ho? - Cac loai rid ro thudng gap san xuat kinh doanh cua hq va cac bien phdp phdng tranh, khac phuc rid ro - Mot so bien phdp nham cai thien thu nhap va nang cao hieu qua san xuat kinh doanh cua ho * Phuctng phdp thuc hien Phdn Ion cac noi dung duoc thuc hien bang each lam bai tap tinh huong va thdo luan nhom, sau dai dien nhom bao cao ket qua va lop thdo luan, giang vien ket luan f f r 4.1 PHAN TICH RUI RO 4.1.1 Rui ro san xuSt kinh doanh cua nong ho la gi? * Giang vien goi y va dat cau hoi de hoc vien tra loi: Trong san xuat kinh doanh cua ho, co phai luc nao ho dau tu deu thu duoc ket qua nhu mong muon hoac co the gap phai nhieu trucrng hop k it qua san xuat kinh doanh giam thap? So luofng san pham m it mat, hir hong hoac giam thap khong luemg trade duoc thudng mot so nguyen nhan gay Nhung nguyen nhan dugre goi la rui ro Vay, rui ro san xuat kinh doanh cua ho la gi? ■\ r r r 96 * Giang vien ting hap y kien tra loi, giai thfch dl di din kit luan: Rui ro san xuat kinh doanh cua n6ng ho la su mat mat khoi lugng san pham hoac sir giam sut kit qua san xult mot each dang ke so vdi ket qua dat dugc dieu kien san xuat binh thirdng ma h6 khong thl tfnh toan, du doan trude Hay noi each khac, rui ro san xudt kinh doanh cua ho la nhirng tac hai bit thuemg xay ma ho khong the luang trude nhung phai chip nhan d l xu ly 4.1.2 Tai ho phai phan tich rui ro? Giang vien dat cau hoi de hoc vien tra loi: - Mot vdn dl dat la tai chung ta phai phan tich rui ro? Phan tich rui ro co tarn quan nhur thl nao san xudt va dcri sing? Gi£ng vien ting hap y kiln tra ldi, giai thfch dl di din ket lutn: - Phan tfch rui ro co y nghTa quan trong doi song, san xuat kinh doanh eda ho, giup ho: r - Nhan bilt va dir doan dugc cac loai rui ro thudng xay ra; - Phan loai rui ro, nhan cac loai rui ro co the phong tranh va rui ro khong thl phong tranh nhlm giam thilu tac dong cua rui ro; - C6 bien phap chu dong phong tranh hoac khlc phuc rui ro, tranh thiet hai dang tile xay r ^ Viec phan loai rui ro la rat quan trong, c6 nhieu each de phan loai rui ro nhu sau: - Dga vao tfnh chit xay rui ro nguoi ta co thl phan chia rui ro xay tir ben hoac ben ngoai ho Co rui ro xay tir ben 97 cua ho nhu benh dich, tai nan lao dong va rui ro tur ben ngoai cua ho nhu thdi tiet khf hau, thi trudng - Dua vao ylu t6 gay rui ro ta co thi phan rui ro tu nhien then tiet khf hau, rui ro ylu t6 sinh hoc, rui ro ylu to kinh tl, thi trudng, rui ro chinh sach cua chmh phu va cac rui ro khac Sir phan loai giup chung ta tun giai phap khac phuc rui ro thfch hop 4.2 CAC LOAI RUI RO CUA N6NG H Giang vien chia lop nhom va yeu cau cac nh6m lam bai tap thao luan dl xac dinh cac loai rui ro thucmg xay san xuat kinh doanh va thuc tl o dia phuong Sau do, dai dien cac nhom bao cao k it qua va lop thao luan, giang vien rut ket luan Ket luan cua giang vien can tap trung vao mot so rui ro thuong gap sau: 4.2.1 Rui ro thien tai > r r Thien nhien thuong gay nhieu rui ro het sue bat thuong Nong nghiep thucmg chiu rui ro thien nhien gay nhilu nhit so voi cac nganh khac Do d6i tuqng cua san xuit nong nghiep chu yeu la cay, rat nhay cam vdi dieu kien tu nhien; san xuat nong nghiep lai trai rong tren mot pham vi ldn, ngoai trbi Do do, tac hai thien nhien gay cho nong nghiep la rat ldn Cac loai rui ro thien nhien gay nhu han han, bao lut, xoi Id, dong ddt, nui lua, bien d6i khf hau lam thiet hai rat dang k l nang suat mua mang va ca tfnh mang cua ngudi dan r r ^ r 4.2.2 Giao dong cua thi truong Co nghTa la tai thdi dilm lua chon quylt dinh nay, ngudi ta khong biet gia thi trucmg vao luc co san phim ban se la bao nhieu 98 Day la dieu phd biln chung d6i vdi n£n ndng nghiep d moi nai va la nguyen nhan chmh cho su can thiep cua Nha nude cac thi trudng ndng nghiep d nhieu nude tren the gidi Thong thucmg nguoi nong dan thidu thong tin thi trudng va hem nua thi trucmg thudng khdng hoan hao, la dac trung cua ndn san xuit ndng nghiep nong dan d cac nude cham phat triln Van de cang trim hon ddi vdi nhung hd trdng cay lau nam (nhu coca, ca phe, cao su ) Tai thdi diem nguoi nong dan lua chon quyet dinh cay gi, nuoi gi nguoi ta khdng the biit duqc gia thi trudng vao luc co san phim thu hoach la bao nhieu Dac biet bdi canh nude ta tham gia cang sau vao td chuc WTO, vao thi trudng the gidi thi su bien dong cua gia ca thi trudng co thi duqc coi nhu la nhung rui ro ddi vdi tinh hinh san xuat kinh doanh cua cac ndng ho r > 4.2.3 Su khdng chic chin dieu kien xa hoi Khdng chac chan ve mat xa hoi co lien quan chu yeu vdi su khdng dam bao nhung khac biet v€ quyen kiem soat cac nguon luc san xuit pham vi ndn kinh td ndng dan va su le thuoc cua mot so ndng ho vao nhung nguoi khac vi su tdn tai cua minh thong qua hinh thuc phan phdi nhu lmh canh hoac vay nang lai Dieu xay khdng co su cong bang quyen so huu d it dai cac cong dong nguoi ndng dan va dac biet no biiu hien muc rui ro cao chi mot so ndng ho co dat mot so khac thi khdng Nhung dieu khdng chac chan ve mat xa hoi thudng tdn tai khdng dong ddu d nhung vung khac Rui ro xa hoi gay thudng gap nhu tai nan lao dong, gap ke xau pha hoai hoac lira dao, he thong may moc thiet bi cu ky, lac hau, thieu an toan gay chay nd, san phim nhilm bin, nhilm doc thieu an toan ve sinh thuc phim f y »> r r 99 r r r 4.2.4 Chfnh sach cua Nha nirdc Ca sa kinh te cua nong dan de bi anh hudng sau sac trudc Su thay doi cac quySt dinh, cac chfnh sach cua cac Ca quan Nha nude Tren mot pham vi rong han, doi s6ng cua cac ho n6ng dan di cu, nhung ngudi co rkt ft quySn lire xa hoi hoac quySn sinh s6ng hop phap tai cac noi ho mdi den sinh song gap rat nhieu khd khan Rui ro su thay doi ve chfnh sach cua Nha nude thudng gap nhu dat dai cua ho bi thu h 6i d l cua qua trinh thi hoa, cong nghiep hoa; cua cac du an quy hoach thieu can cur khoa hoc, cua cac chfnh sach chuyen dich ca cau kinh te cua Nha nude (xay dung nha may dudng, san gon ) Rui ro gay cho san xuat nong nghiep chfnh sach khai thac can kiet cac ngudn luc tu nhien lam M i hudng den moi trudng san xuat nong nghiep f ? r r y r > ? * f f r 4.3 BIEN PHAP PHONG CHONG VA KHAC PHyC RUI RO Giang vien chia lap nhom va yeu cau cac nhom thao lufin dl xac dinh cac loai rui ro thudng xay san xult kinh doanh neu tren Doi chieu vdi dieu ki?n cu thl cua dia phuang minh de xem loai rui ro nao thudng xay va muc anh hudng cua cac rui ro doi vdi hoat dong san xuat kinh doanh va sinh k$ cua ngudi dan Ngudi dan thudng chdng cac rui ro neu tren nhu thS nao? Sau do, dai dien cac nhom bao cao ket qua va ldp thao luan, giang vien rut ket luan Ket luan cua giang vien can tap trung vao mot s6 bien phap phong tranh va khac phuc rui ro sau: 4.3.1 Dir doan de de phong va giam bot rui ro Day la bien phap phong tranh rui ro chu dong va tfch cue, bang nhung kinh nghiem thuc te vdi nhung rui ro thudng gap hoac 100 th6ng qua ngudi nhieu kinh nghifm, chuyen gia de loai bo toi da cac rui ro Cu thi: - B6 trf lich thdi vu chfnh xac d i tranh mua lut bao, han han; thuang xuyen cap nhat thong tin, nhit la mua mua lu, han han d§ chu dong phong ch6ng; - Thuang xuyen tiip can thong tin thi trudng, gia ca dau vao, ddu cua cac hang hoa, dich vu kinh doanh , phan tfch nguon luc va thi trudng tren ca sa d€ co can cu xay dung ke hoach san xudt kinh doanh dung din Ngay vdi he thong thong tin thi trudng tdt han (tivi, bao chi, Internet, can bo khuyen nong ) ngudi dan cang co ca so tot han de tiep can va xu ly thong tin thi trudng r r * r - Chu dong xay dung k i hoach mua sam du tru: vat tu trang thiit bi can thilt phuc vu san xuit; tranh mua vat tu hang hoa vao thdi dilm khan hiim, gia ca tang cao Chu dpng tim Idem thi trudng tieu thu san phim, ban san phim d thdi diem thich hop - Hoc tap, doc sach bao dl phong tranh cac te nan xa hoi, bilt tu bao ve minh (vf du nhu tranh nghien ruau, cd bac, de dom ); Co kien thuc can thiet mua ban va su dung hang hoa dich vu (tranh su dung hang hod hit han su dung, biet de phong dich benh ); - Tim hilu cac chinh sach Nha nude d! van dung linh hoat (vf du chfnh sach thu!, su dung dat dai, vay tin dung, lai suat nganhang ) 4.3.2 Chu dQng san se rui ro Day Id bien phap mdi tien tiin, nhd vao su phat triln cua khoa hoc ky thuat, cac nha khoa hoc tfnh toan qua nhieu nam, nhiiu chu ky san xuat cac rui ro co the xay va xac dinh muc thiet 101 hai trung binh cua cac rui ro Dura vao nhung tmh toan nay, nha nude hoac cac cong ty bao hiem lap quy bao hilm san xuat kinh doanh Ho san xult kinh doanh tham gia mua bao hilm duqc mua hoac luc san xuat binh thufrng de c6 rui ro Nha nude hoac cong ty bao hilm se chi tra bao hiem dl ho khac phuc va xur ly rui ro 4.3.3 Chia se rui ro voi cong dong Tham gia vao cac hoat dong phong ngira chung cua cong dong nhu cung chung dap dich benh, thuc hien cac phong trao phong chdng cua dia phuong, cua cong dong Khi co thien tai xay ra, ho phai y thuc tur giac cung cong ddng dl dap dich benh va cung san se rui ro chung Thuc hien tot dieu giup ho co the phln nao tranh dugc cac rui ro lay lan 4.3.4 Chap nh$n de kh&c phuc rui ro Chip nhan rui ro (trong trudng hop bat kha khang) va dm each khlc phuc Sau da ap dung tit ca cac bien phap doi phd d tren ma vln co mot phln ldn hau qua rui ro hien tai khong the khlc phuc ndi, thi ho buoc phai chip nhan rui ro Trudng hgp thong thuemg ho phai dilu chinh lai cac muc tieu, chip nhan m lt mat ngudn lure, thay d6i phuong an san xuat khac co loi hon va rut kinh nghiem de phong tranh rui ro lan sau 102 NHA XUAT BAN DAI HQC HUE 07 Ha Noi, Hul - Dien thoai: 054.3834486; Fax: 054.3819886 Chiu trach nhiem xuat ban Giam doc: Nguyen Xuan Khoat T6ng bien tap: Hoang Due Khoa Hoi dong tham dinh PGS.TS Nguyen Tai Phuc PGS.TS Trinh Van Sun TS Tran Hfru Tuan Bien tap ky - my thuat Tran Binh Tuyen Trinh bay bia Thien Dire Chi ban vi tmh Hoang Son PHAN TICH KINH TE N 6N G HO In 1000 ban, kh6 16 x 24 cm tai Cong ty TNHH In va Bao bi Hung Phd, Ap 1A xa An Phu, huyen Thuan An, tinh Binh Duang So dang KHXB: 1113-20iq/CXB/01-25/DHH Quyet dinh xuat ban so: 164/QD-DHH-NXB, clp 08 thang 12 nam 2010 In xong va nop luu chilu thdng 12 nam 2010