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KHOÁ LUẬN TỐT NGHIỆP TÊN ĐỀ TÀI : DETERMINANTS AFFECTING PROFITABILITY OF FIRMS IN OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY LISTED ON VIETNAM STOCK MARKET NHÂN TỐ TÁC ĐỘNG ĐẾN KHẢ NĂNG SINH LỜI CỦA CÁC DOANH NGHIỆP DẦU KHÍ NIÊM YẾT TRÊN SỞ GIAO DỊCH CHỨNG KHOÁN VIỆT NAM Sinh viên thực : Nguyễn Minh Hiếu Lớp : K19CLCTCA Khoá học : K19 Chất lượng cao Mã sinh viên : 19A4010194 Giảng viên hướng dẫn : TS Bùi Thị Mến Hà Nội, tháng 06 năm 2020 AUTHOR’S APPRECIATION “Determinants affecting Profitability of firms in Oil and Gas Industry listed on Vietnam Stock Market” thesis has been completed thanks to dedicated instructions from Banking Academy and PetroVietnam Securities Incorporated (PSI) I sincerely thank PhD.Bui Thi Men for instructing me during my time pursuing this thesis, who is always willing to orient and advise me to complete this study I truly appreciate and would like to say thanks to your immeasurable help I also appreciate all friends, Banking Academy, PetroVietnam Securities Incorporated (PSI) and other people for helping me, especially employees in PSI who have friendly and dedicatedly guided me during my internship time no matter the increasing work pressure Nevertheless, due to my absence in specialized knowledge and practical experiences, mistakes and limitation in this study are inevitable I really hope to receive all comments from Lecturers and PSI to improve this study Once again, I would like to give to all the Lecturers, friends and employees in PSI the most beautiful and sincere words Hanoi, May 2020 AUTHOR’S GUARANTEE I guarantee that my study over “Determinants affecting Profitability of firms in Oil and Gas Industry listed on Vietnam Stock Market” is a research under the instruction of PhD Bui Thi Men There is completely no copy during the research The data and results in this study are truly honest I am responsible for any disciplines from the university in any problems Hanoi, May 2020 Author’s Signature Nguyễn Minh Hiếu CONTENT INTRODUCTION 1 Research motives Research purposes Research Scope and Subjects .2 Methodolody Research content CHAPTER 1: LITERATURE REVIEW 1.1 International research 1.1.1 Capital structure and Profitability 1.1.2 Fixed assets and Profitability 1.1.3 Dividend payment and Profitability 10 1.1.4 Government ownership and Profitability 10 1.1.5 Macroeconomic factors and Profitability 11 1.2 Research in Vietnam 13 CHAPTER : THEORY BASES FOR DETERMINANTS AFFECTING FIRMS’ PROFITABILITY IN OIL AND GASINDUSTR Y 17 2.1 Oil and Gas Enterprises in Vietnam 17 2.1.1 Definition of an Enterprise 17 2.1.2 .Oil and Gas Industry in Vietnam 17 2.2 Profitability in Oil and Gas Industry in Vietnam 22 2.2.1 .Profitability definition 22 2.2.2 Profitability in Oil and Gas Industry .in Vietnam 25 2.3 Determinants affecting profitability of firms in Oil and Gas Industry 27 2.3.1 Subjective determinants 27 2.3.2 .Objective determinants 34 4.1 Descriptive statistics ABBREVIATION 41 4.2 Correlation analysis 42 4.3 Empirical results 42 CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION 48 5.1 Utilizing capital structure 48 5.2 Utilizing government ownership 49 5.3 Utilizing dividend policy 49 5.4 Utilizing other resources 50 REFERENCE 51 Name Meaning HSX Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange HNX Hanoi Stock Exchange UPCOM Unlisted Public Compannies PVN PetroVietnam PSI PetroVietnam Securities Incorporated ROE Return on Equity ROA Return on Assets PP&E Property, plant and equipment Figures Page Figure 2.1 PetroVietnam Financial situation 21 LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Figure 2.2 Exploration situation in Vietnam Figure 2.3 Return on Assets (ROA) of different enterprises in three sectors Figure 3.1 Research process 22 27 38 Tables Page Table 2.1 Descriptions of different key areas of Petroleum Industry 19 Table 2.2 Financial indicators of several Oil and Gas firms in 2019 26 Table 3.1 Variable Description 40 Table 4.1 Descriptive statistics of data 41 Table 4.2 Correlation Coefficient 42 Table 4.3 Results in OLS model 42 Table 4.4 Hypothesis Testing in Pooled Regression (OLS) 43 Table 4.5 Results in Fixed Effects Model (FEM) and Random Effects Model (REM) 43 Table 4.6 Hypothesis Testing in Fixed Effects Model (FEM) 44 Table 4.7 Results in Generalized Least Square (GLS) 44 Table 4.8 Empirical results 45 INTRODUCTION Research motives Oil and Gas industry, or Petroleum industry, has been widely known as one of major motives for society and economy development in Vietnam In the developing strategy of Vietnam till 2030, this industry has been emphasized to have an indispensable role in nation’s improvement Being perpetuated for nearly 35 years in Vietnam, Oil and Gas industry has proliferated and primarily contributed to energy security, exportation, foreign incomes, national budget, motivating industrialization and modernization of the society in general Therefore, it has been able to help Vietnamese people to alleviate chaos and underperformance, allowing Vietnam to appear in the list of countries with medium-ranged income in the world Moreover, the upstream activities of the industry engage in national sovereignty It would be apparent that the participation of Oil and Gas industry to Vietnam virtually depends on the collaboration of firms and Government The efficiency of this industry requires diverse factors, leading to a question of which key contributors would affect Henceforth, a major factor is considered to be the profitability of the firms However, challenges the firms need to confront are inevitable, including competitiveness, government policies, technology advancement, business management, human and financial resources and other aspects Thus, it is vital to manage and consider those determinants influencing the profitability, allowing the managers and administrators to find initiatives to implement an efficient framework Based on the essentiality of finding the effects of these determinants, this study would focus on analyzing the relationship between different factors and profitability of the firms in Oil and Gas industry in Vietnam, leading to the topic “Determinants affecting profitability of firms in Oil and Gas industry listed on Vietnam Stock Market” Research purposes In the backdrop of the continuous development of Oil and Gas industry, the research over factors influencing the profit of the firms in this domain would be essential, resulting in data and fundamental basis for both investors and managers Econometric models are applied to evaluate the level of influence of different determinants on profitability, hence yielding several recommendations related to business management of these firms To obtain this purpose, it is necessary for the study to answer following questions: - Do the determinants affect the profitability of the firms in Oil and Gas Industry? - What type of influence the determinants have? Negative or positive? - To better the profitability of the enterprises, which methods should the managers and administrators implement? Research Scope and Subjects Research Scope : In terms of space, the study analyzes the impact of several determinants on profitability of the companies in Oil and Gas industry listed on Vietnam Stock Market, including Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HSX), Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX) and Unlisted Public Company Market (UPCOM) In terms of timing, the data was collected during an eight-year period from 2012 to 2018 Research Subjects : The subjects are considered to be different factors affecting the profitability of the firms listed on Vietnam Stock Exchange, basing on audited financial statements of the firms in Oil and Gas Industry listed during 2012-2018 Methodolody This research utilized data collected from financial statements during six Variable ROA FL GOV DIV FA _ IogEXR OIL Obs 203 203 203 203 203 4.1 203 203 Mean Std Dev Min Max 0.009304 0.1065098 0.2758909 0.5568675 0.707657 0.7647454 0.0659977 8.104655 0.275186 0.3486372 CHAPTER 4: RESEARCH ANALYSIS 674.6847 1012.6 5500 0.207851 statistics 0.1778223 0.6978574 Descriptive 9.990688 0.0319172 _ 9.953651 10.04432 Table26.23298 4.1 : Descriptive statistics 111.6755 of data 77.85576 45.13182 Panel data regression was used to reach the goal of this study, leading to the application of Pooled Ordinal Least Square, Fixed Effect Model (FEM) and Random Effect Model (REM) However, due to the problems in heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation of the data, Generalized Least Square (GLS) has been utilized to solve and display the final results Fixed Effects Model : ROAit = aii + a2FLt + asGOVt+ a4DIVt + asFAt + aelogEXRit + a7OILt + Sit Random Effects Model : ROAit = + a2FLit + a,3GOVit+ a,4DIVit + asFAit + aβlogEXRit + a7OILit + Vi+ Sit (While aii describes fixed effects and Vi describes random effects ) 40 FL GOV DIV FA logEX ROIL FL 0.1521 - 4.2 0.1473 0.1938 0.08 0.0448 GOV DIV FA logEXR OIL 0.34 Correlation analysis 18 0.26 0.0655 86 Table 4.2 : Correlation Coefficient -0.1262 0.0269 0.01 0.0152 -0.7762 -0.014 0.141 07 _ = 203 No of obs Source SS df Model Residual 1.23709183 1.05446537 197 Total 2.2915572 202 MS 0.24741836 0.00535261 0.01134434 _ F(5, 197) Prob > F R-squared Adj Rsquared Root MSE = 46.22 = = = = 0.5398 0.5282 Source : STATA 14.1 Table 4.2 illustrates the correlation among independent variables Clearly, Source : STATA IogEXR and OIL have been found to entangle with correlation (-0.7762 > 14.1 0.5), leadingThe to thetable decision omit OILdescriptive in the equation Therefore, the Apparently, final equationROAis : 4.1 to illustrates statistics of data dependent an average number of 0.0093046, standard deviation of ROAit = O1 variable + 02FLt +has 03GOV t+ 04DIVt + 05FAt + 06logEXRit + Sit 0.1065098, ranging from -0.5568675 to 0.2758909 It would also be implemented in FEM, REM and GLS regressions in Similarly, conclude statistics of other determinants following results we Thecan final modelsthe aredescriptive : The is 0.7076579, with standard deviation of 0.7647454, ranging Fixedaverage EffectsFL Model : from 0.0659977 to 8.104655 ROAit = O1i + 02FLt + 03GOVt+ 04DIVt + 05FAt + 06logEXRit + Sit The mean of GOV is 0.2751867, standard deviation of 0.3486372, ranging Random Effects Model : from to ROAit = 01 + 02FLit + 03GOVit+ 04DIVit + 05FAit + 06logEXRit + Vi + Sit The average DIV is 674.6847 (VND), standard deviation of 1012.6, ranging from to 5500.O1i describes fixed effects and Vi describes random effects ) (While the meanresults is 0.2078515, standard deviation of 0.1778223, ranging 4.3.For FA, Empirical from to 0.6978574 The table 4.3 shows the results of applying OLS model for this study With logEXR, the average amount is 9.990688, standard deviation of Table 4.3 : Results in OLS model 0.0319172, ranging from 9.953651 to 10.04432 Lastly, OIL’S mean is 77.85576 (USD/barrel), while standard deviation is 26.23298, ranging from 45.13182 to 111.6755 41 ROA FL FA GOV DIV logEXR cons Coef 0.074401 0.024494 0.04255 0.000034 0.1657074 1.67752 Std Err. 0.0069563 0.0306728 0.0163174 5.44E-06 0.1629456 1.628309 t P>t 0.00 -10.70 0.42 0.80 0.01 2.61 0.00 6.31 0.31 -1.02 1.03 [95% Conf Interval] 0.0881193 0.0606827 0.0849837 0.0359945 0.01037 0.0747322 37 0.00002 0.0000451 360.1556342 0.4870491 -1.533633 4.888676 Mu Iticollinearity Heteroskedasticity Autocorrelation _ Variable VIF 1/VIF GOV 1.22 0.818773 chi2(20) = 45.16 F( 1,28) = 4.637 DIV 1.15 0.871986 Source : STATA 14.1 FA 1.12 0.89071 FL 1.07 0.936329 Table 4.4: Hypothesis Testing in Pooled Regression (OLS) luger _1.02 0.979667 Mean VIF 1.12 _ Prob > chi2 = 0.0011 Prob > F = 0.0400 Source : STATA 14.1 FEM _ REM _ Hausman Test _ _ ROA P>t ROA P>z Coef Coef 0.00 FL FL -0.0741639 Prob>chi2=0.000 0.0316969 0.294762 GOV GOV 0.0428897 0.009 0.00001 0.07 DIV DIV 0.0000342 0.27 FA FA 0.024291 0.43 0.0697993 IogEX 0.08 IogEX -0.1663118 0.307 R cons 0.2583473 R 2.53743 0.09 cons 1.683426 0.301 0.237 0.5398 From TableR-sq 4.4, it has been shown that although the Pooled Model not R-sq have multicollinearity (vif = 1.12 chi2 = 0.0011< 5%) and Autocorrelation (Prob > F = 0.0400 chi2 = 0.0000 Prob > F = 0.0400 Source : STATA 14.1 ROA = 2.537435 - 0.0316969FL + 0.2947626GOV Random Effects Model (REM) : ROA = 1.683426 - 0.0741639FL + 0.0428897GOV + 0.0000342DIV Hausman Test has resulted in Prob > chi2 = 0.0000, which is lower than 5%, implying that Fixed Effects Model (FEM) would be more suitable for this study than Random Effects Model (REM) Afterwards, other hypothesis tests were taken into account for FEM Table 4.6 : Hypothesis Testing in Fixed Effects Model (FEM) Source : STATA 14.1 43 Estimated covariances = 29 No of obs Estimated No of groups autocorrelations = Estimated coefficients = Time periods Correlation: common AR(1) coefficient all panels (0.3177) Waldfor chi2(5) ROA FL FA GOV DIV logEX R cons FL GOV DIV logEXR Coef 0.0575783 0.018616 0.041071 0.000020 0.1555243 1.5830 Pooled Std Err 0.011377 0.01518 740.01228 41 3.12E-06 z 5.061 Prob > chi2 P>z [95% Conf 0.0798785 0.22 -0.0111507 0.01699 0.001 51 0.00001 48 0.037 0.3013363 0.12431 _ 53 GLS 23 34 0.07439 530.74425 2.092 57 Fixed 13 203 29 124.25 Interval] 0.035278 0.04838 0.065148 0.00002 7-0.0097123 3.04174 Random Effect Regression Effect ROA ROA _ ROA _ ROA _ -0.0744*** -0.0317*** -0.0742*** -0.0576*** [-10.70] 0.0426*** [-3.35] 0.295*** [-10.63] 0.0429*** [-5.06] 0.0411*** [3.34] [2.61] [3.87] [2.62] Source : STATA 14.1 0.0000343*** 0.0000130* 0.0000342*** 0.0000209*** [6.31] [1.79]the final results [6.27]in different models [6.70]are displayed below: Consequently, -0.166 -0.258* -0.166 -0.156** Table 4.8 : Empirical results _[1.03] [1.69] _[1.04] [2.13] N 203 203 203 203 R-sq 0.540 0.173 _ [-2.09] [-1.73] [-1.02] [-1.02] 0.0245 FA -0.0698 0.0243 0.0186 [0.79] does not have [1.23]problems in From[0.80] Table 4.6, it is [-1.09] apparent that FEM cons 1.678 1.583** 2.537* 1.683 multicollinearity (vif=1.12
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