Luận án này được thực hiện nhằm nghiên cứu sự phát triển của thị trường trái phiếu doanh nghiệp tại Việt Nam thông qua việc đánh giá tác động của một số nhân tố kinh tế vĩ mô đến sự phát triển của thị trường này trong giai đoạn từ Quý 1 năm 2004 đến Quý 4 năm 2020 với dữ liệu được thu thập từ các nguồn đáng tin cậy. Với những kết quả đạt được, luận án đã có những đóng góp mới về lý luận và thực tiễn như sau: Về lý luận: l Bổ sung cơ sở lý thuyết về sự hình thành và phát triển của thị trường TPDN trong nền kinh tế thị trường, về tác động của nhân tố kinh tế vĩ mô đến sự phát triển của thị trường trái phiếu doanh nghiệp. l Luận án phân tích một cách có hệ thống về lý luận cơ bản, các lý thuyết nền liên quan và thực hiện kiểm định tác động của một số nhân tố kinh tế vĩ mô đến sự phát triển của thị trường trái phiếu doanh nghiệp tại Việt Nam. Đây là một đóng góp về mặt học thuật rất có ý nghĩa đối với Chính phủ và các cơ quan quản lý khi thực hiện các mục tiêu kinh tế vĩ mô có liên quan đến hoạt động của thị trường trái phiếu doanh nghiệp tại Việt Nam Về giá trị thực tiễn: l Luận án chỉ ra những mặt hạn chế, yếu kém của hoạt động thị trường trái phiếu doanh nghiệp ở Việt Nam trong giai đoạn từ năm 2004 đến năm 2020. l Đánh giá được tác động của nhân tố kinh tế vĩ mô đến sự phát triển của thị trường TPDN Việt Nam giai đoạn từ năm 2004 đến năm 2020 thông qua mô hình ARDB Bounds Test. Kết quả nghiên cứu chỉ ra sự phát triển của thị trường TPDN Việt Nam giai đoạn từ năm 2004 đến năm 2020 chịu tác động của tăng trưởng kinh tế và một số nhân tố kinh tế vĩ mô (Biến tăng trưởng kinh tế và cung tiền M2 có tác động thuận chiều, biến khủng hoảng tài chính có tác động nghịch chiều với phát triển của thị trường trái phiếu doanh nghiệp tại Việt Nam giai đoạn 2004 2020); l Nghiên cứu thực tiễn phát triển thị trường trái phiếu doanh nghiệp tại một số quốc gia trong khu vực ASEAN+3 và rút ra bài học cho Việt Nam; Đây là nguồn tham khảo hữu ích cho các nhà hoạch định chính sách, các cơ quan quản lý có cơ sở khoa học để đưa ra những quyết định linh động, hợp lý trong phát triển thị trường trái phiếu doanh nghiệp tại Việt Nam.
MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING STATE BANK OF VIETNAM BANKING UNIVERSITY OF HO CHI MINH CITY DOAN QUYNH PHUONG DEVELOPMENT OF THE CORPORATE BOND MARKET IN VIET NAM SUMMARY OF PHD THESIS MAJOR: FINANCE - BANKING Code : 9.34.02.01 Scientific Supervisor: TRINH QUOC TRUNG, Assoc Prof HO CHI MINH CITY – 2022 CHAPTER INTRODUCTION OF THE RESEARCH Background and Statement of the Research The study is carried out on the basis of practical and theoretical significance as follows First, in terms of practical significance Raising capital by issuing bonds is considered a method many benefits such as mobilizing capital from all economic sectors, limiting dependence on allocated capital, and reducing the burden on the State budget, socializing the investment in infrastructure development (Trinh Mai Van, 2010) On the other hand, in the study of promoting long-term capital financing, Batten and Kim (2000) argued that the issuance of bonds also provides the market and investors with a financial instrument, helping to diversify portfolio and minimize risks Therefore, the bond market in general and the corporate bond market in particular has always been one of the important capital mobilization channels of the economy If, the size of Vietnam's economy compared to the ASEAN +3 region is considered to be quite similar and has great potentials for growth in the future The Vietnamese corporate bond market has not had such a development Vietnam corporate bond market was established in 2000, but in 2011 when Decree 90/2011/ND-CP on issuing corporate bonds took effect, this market has just started to develop In recent years, in Vietnam, although the bond market has improved, but compared with other countries at the same level of development in the region and the world, Vietnam's bond market has not properly developed Notably, at present, in Vietnam's bond market, government bonds are occupying a "dominant" position, while corporate bonds are very limited (Vu Nhu Thang, 2013) And although the corporate bond market capitalization has gradually increased and reached 10.22% of GDP in 2018 (as of June 24, 2019), this number is still much smaller than the average of the ASEAN region +3 is 21.7% GDP 2018 marked the clear growth of Vietnam's corporate bond market In this year, the corporate bond market size increased by about 53% compared to 2017 and increased 32 times compared to 2011 That growth has not stopped breaking through so far The growth of the corporate bond market increases the expectation that the bond channel will replace the credit channel, reducing the pressure on medium and long-term capital supply for banks When the market has not developed, there are many reasons leading to this situation such as: the instability of the economy, the small size of the bond market, the low liquidity of bonds, the health of enterprises industry, market transparency, etc At present, the overheating development of corporate bonds is also a concern According to statistics, in 2020 the value of corporate bond issuance reached a record of VND 429,500 billion, up 28.3% compared to 2019 According to a newly released report of the Vietnam Bond Market Association (VBMA), Iin 2021, there were a total of 964 corporate bond issuances with a total value of VND 595,000 billion, of which there were 937 individual issuances with a total value of VND 570,000 billion (accounting for 95.8% of the total issuance value) The above figure shows that corporate bonds will still increase hotly in 2021 despite a series of decrees and circulars issued in 2020 with the aim of cooling down the corporate bond market The irrationality that comes with many risks is warned by the major participation of banks, securities companies and enterprises in the real estate sector, which seems to cause distortions in the corporate bond market Facing this situation, the development of the corporate bond market in Vietnam is an extremely important issue in the coming period This shows that, although not really standardized, the corporate bond market is a potential market that is in the process of completion and development and is attracting the attention of domestic and foreign investors as well as financial institutions The study and understanding of the factors affecting the development of the corporate bond market in the context of macroeconomics in Vietnam is a necessary issue and is consistent with the State's policy in development and stability of financial system in Vietnam The second is about the theoretical significance The thesis is researched on the basis of surveying and detecting gaps that have not been mentioned in previous studies Since the two global financial crises in 1997 and 2008, the corporate bond market development has been a topical topic and studied by many scholars around the world There have been many studies proving that the development of the bond market in general and the market in general and the corporate bond market in particular is affected by macroeconomic factors such as economic growth, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, house prices, oil prices, etc In particular, many researchers focus on examining the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the development of the financial market in general and the bond market in particular such as Bencivenga and the bond market in particular Smith (1991), King and Levine (1993), Levine and Zervos (1996), Levine et al (1998), Rousseau and Wachtel (2002), Beck and Levine (2002), Adjasi (2009), Rousseau and Xiao (2007 ), Seetanah et al (2008), Bhattacharyay (2013), Burger et al (2015), Smaoui et al (2017) … In which, most of these studies confirmed the significant role of a number of factors macroeconomics such as economic growth, economic openness etc., to the stock market in general and the corporate bond market in particular In Vietnam, the research works of authors such as Trinh Mai Van (2010), Vuong and Tran (2010) have systematized the entire history of the formation and development of the bond market in general and the corporate bond market in Vietnam in particular, referring to the theories on the foundation of the market and the urgent basis of solutions to develop the bond market in general and the corporate bond market in particular Quantitative studies evaluating the development of the corporate bond market in Vietnam are very rare such as Nguyen Hoa Nhan et al (2014) , Nguyen Thi Phuong Nhung (2016) inheriting previous studies to building an empirical research model on the development of corporate bond market in Vietnam However, the above studies only focus on the development of the stock market or the bond market in general, i.e., including government bonds and corporate bonds The development of the corporate bond market in particular has not been adequately studied, especially considering the impact of a number of macroeconomic factors on the development of the corporate bond market in Vietnam On the basis of reviewing the gaps that have not been mentioned by previous studies, the researcher will add to the theoretical basis on the formation and development of the corporate bond market, on the impact of a number of macroeconomic factors model the development of the corporate bond market and systematically and fully analyze the basic theories, the system of background theories on the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the development of the corporate bond market in Vietnam From the above theoretical and practical significance, the topic "Development of The Corporate Bond Market in Vietnam" was selected by the author The analysis of the current situation of market development and the impact of a number of macroeconomic factors on the development of the corporate bond market in Vietnam will help managers and researchers have a comprehensive view drawing experience for the process of operating and managing the operation of the Vietnamese corporate bond market more effectively 1.2 Objectives of the study 1.2.1 General objective of the study The overall objective of the thesis is to study the development of the corporate bond market in Vietnam by assessing the impact of a number of macroeconomic factors on the development of this market From there, the thesis recommends appropriate solutions to develop the Vietnamese corporate bond market, contributing to completing an additional channel of capital mobilization for financial markets in the future 1.2.2 Specific objectives of the study From the common goal, the research thesis aims to accomplish three specific objectives that are closely related to each other as follows: First, the thesis analyzes and evaluates the operational status of the Vietnamese corporate bond market to visualize the development of the corporate bond market in Vietnam Second, the thesis examines the impact of some macroeconomic factors on the development of corporate bond market in Vietnam From there, the thesis has a basis to make appropriate recommendations to promote the development of corporate bond market in Vietnam Third, the thesis studies the experience of developing the corporate bond market in some countries in the ASEAN +3 region to propose lessons learned for Vietnam 1.3 Research questions From the specific objectives, the research questions are set forth as follows: First, what is the development status of the corporate bond market in Vietnam recently? Second, how macroeconomic factors affect the development of the corporate bond market in Vietnam? Third, how have countries in the ASEAN +3 region developed the corporate bond market? What lessons have been learned about developing the corporate bond market for Vietnam? Fourth, what is the right solution to develop the corporate bond market in Vietnam? 1.4 Research subjects and scopes of the study - About the research subject The subject of the thesis is to study the development of the corporate bond market in Vietnam through assessing the impact of a number of macroeconomic factors on the development of this market - About the scopes of research - Space: The thesis assesses the impact of a number of macroeconomic factors on the development of the corporate bond market in Vietnam - Time: The thesis researched in Vietnam in the period from the first quarter of 2004 to the fourth quarter of 2020 1.5 Research Methodology The thesis uses two main methods including qualitative and quantitative research methods (ARDL Bounds Test Model) combined with other secondary methods such as analysis, comparison, contrast, synthesis and case studies 1.6 Contributions of the thesis - In theoretical terms: Supplementing the theoretical basis on the formation and development of the corporate bond market in the market economy, on the impact of a number of macroeconomic factors on the development of the corporate bond market Systematically and fully analyze the basic theories, the system of related background theories and test the impact of some macroeconomic factors on the development of the corporate bond market in Vietnam This is a meaningful scholarly contribution to State management agencies and competent levels when implementing macroeconomic objectives related to the development of the corporate bond market in Vietnam at the same time, is also a useful basis for making policy recommendations related to the development of the corporate bond market in accordance with the reality of the Vietnamese economy - In practical terms: Presenting an overview of the formation, operation and development of the corporate bond market, assessing the impact of a number of macroeconomic factors on the development of the corporate bond market in Vietnam Thereby, analyzing and evaluating the achievements in the development of corporate bond market in Vietnam In addition, the thesis also points out the limitations, weaknesses and existences of corporate bond market activities in Vietnam in recent years Combining the actual situation in Vietnam and lessons learned from other countries, the author hopes that the thesis contributes to proposing possible solutions for completing and promoting the development of the market Corporate bonds in Vietnam 1.7 Structure of the thesis The thesis consists of five chapters: Chapter Introduction of the research Chapter Theoretical background, empirical evidence and experienced lessons from other country about the development of the corporate bond market Chapter Research model, methodology and data Chapter Research results and discussion Chapter Conclusions and policy implications CHAPTER THEORETICAL BACKGROUND, EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE AND INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE ABOUT DEVELOP FOR ENTERPRISE BOND MARKET 2.1 Some concepts Corporate bonds Regarding the State's governing documents, Section 1, Article 2, Chapter of Decree 90/2011/ND-CP stipulates: "Corporate bonds are debt securities issued by enterprises, confirming the obligation to pay principal, interest, and other obligations (if any) of the enterprise toward bondholders In Section 1, Article 4, Chapter of Decree 163/2018/ND-CP, the term of corporate bonds is emphasized as follows: “Corporate bonds are securities with a term of year or more issued by enterprises, confirmed the obligation to pay principal, interest, and other obligations (if any) of the enterprise toward the investors owning the bonds” Corporate bond market In Vietnam, there is no specific definition of the corporate bond market, but according to Section 3, Article of the Law on Securities (2006) because bonds (including corporate bonds) are a type of security and Section 18, Article of this Law also provides an explanation of the securities trading market as “a place or form of information exchange for gathering orders to buy, sell and trade securities” Thus, we can generalize about the corporate bond market as a part of the financial market, which is a place or form of information exchange to collect orders to buy, sell and trade bonds of all kinds enterprises in accordance with the law The development of the corporate bond market Thus, although there is no specific definition or concept for the development of the corporate bond market, but from the concept of development combined with the definitions of financial development, the concept of corporate bond market development is understood as an economic category reflecting the following basic contents: First, the increase in market size increases the value of the market and the positive change in market structure Second, the development of the corporate bond market affects and changes the structure of the financial market, improving the quality of the market through performing the most basic function of allocating capital in the role of a bridge between the supply and demand of capital Thirdl, according to dialectical materialist point of view, things and phenomena in the material world, no matter how diverse, rich or different they are, they cannot exist in isolation, apart from each other, they exist in mutual interaction, transforming each other according to definite relationships Therefore, the development of the corporate bond market also interacts with many factors, in which the internal factor of the economy is very important for the development of the market Criteria to determine the development of the corporate bond market There are many criteria based on different perspectives to evaluate the development of the financial market in general and the corporate bond market in particular measuring the development of the financial market in general or the corporate bond market in particular, almost all studies use market size to measure it Other indicators can provide information about the development of the financial market, the stock market is more overview, but there is information that is difficult to collect fully and make measurement and evaluation, for example, the financial innovation index, information on the law, on market management institutions, etc., difficult to evaluate but can only comment on the impact The unevenness in the quality and time frame of the relevant data among the indicators is also a drawback when evaluating according to the aggregated set of indicators Therefore, within the scope of the thesis, the author uses the indicator Corporate bond market size is determined by the total capitalization value of the corporate 17 Pradhan et al (2018) Inflation ary (%) ���� − ����−1 � 100% ����−1 INF Levine and Zervos (1996), Félix Fofana N'Zúe (2004), Griffin (1998), Liu, M – H & (+) or ( ) Shrestha, KM (2008), Nguyen Thi Phuong Nhung (2016) M2 growth rate M2 M2 TMIng – Hua Liu & money Kesab M Shrestha supply (2008), Le Dat Chi (+) (2010), Nguyen Thi (%) Phuong Nhung (2016) Interest difference = Loan SP rate (%) interest rate – Deposit (1995), Maysami et al interest rate (2000), Mukherjee et al Hooker (2004), Bhattacharyay ( 2013), Smaoui et al ()_ (2017), Pradhan et al (2019) Exchang Average quarterly rate e rate USD/VND Eichengreen FX and Luengnaruemitchai (2004), Bhattacharyay (2012), Smaoui et al (+) or ( ) (2017), Nguyen Hoa Nhan et al (2014) Econom Total Export Value OPEN Anwar and Cooray ic (2012), opennes hattacharyay s B (2013), Nguyen Hoa Nhan et al (2014) , Vo Xuan (+) 18 Vinh et al (2019) Financia Dummy variable = if l crisis CRISIS Eichengreen and Luengnaruemitchai crisis and vice versa = (2004), B hattacharyay (2013) , (-) Smaoui et al (2017), Vo Xuan Vinh et al (2019) Source: Author's compilation 3.2 Research methods and research data 3.2.1 Research data The thesis assesses the impact of a number of macroeconomic factors on the development of corporate bond market in Vietnam in the period from the first quarter of 2004 to the fourth quarter of 2020 Data was collected from 2004 and since the market started operating in 2000, but because this was the time when the market started to be active, the data was officially compiled and published on the website of ADB's Asian bond market The data is collected by the author from the following sources: ADB's Asian bond market website (AsianBondsOnline, 2021), World Monetary Fund (IFS) Statistics (2021), and ARIC (The Asia Regional) Integration Center) by ADB However, the thesis also examines, compares and supplements research data through published data of the State Bank of Vietnam, the Ministry of Finance of Vietnam, the General Statistics Office of Vietnam during the period period 2004 - 2020 Table 3.2: Research data sources STT Variable name Symbol first The CBMD development of the corporate Data sources ADB 's Asian Bond Market Web Site 19 bond market Economic growth GDP ARIC (The Asia Regional Integration Center) by ADB Inflationary CPI Statistics of the World Monetary Fund (IFS) M2 supply Interest rate SP Statistics of the World Monetary Fund (IFS) Exchange rate FX ARIC (The Asia Regional Integration Center) by ADB Economic openness OPEN Statistics of the World Monetary Fund (IFS) Financial crisis CRISIS Author's own synthesis money M2 ARIC (The Asia Regional Integration Center) by ADB Source: Author's compilation 3.2.2 Research Methods The thesis applies qualitative research methods combined with quantitative methods Based on the research problem (1), the author builds the research objective (2) and identifies the research question (3) Then, review related studies (4) to build a theoretical basis (5) and establish a research model (6) Next, collect and process research data (7) Based on the results of data processing, combined with the actual situation to analyze the situation (8) and survey experts' opinions to have a basis for conclusions and propose appropriate policy recommendations (9) 3.2.2.1 Qualitative research methods The thesis uses specific qualitative methods including survey of experts (including managers of securities companies, Stock Exchanges, investment banks, the State Bank and independent experts, such as lecturers and research experts in the field of Banking and Finance…) and surveyed bond issuers with specific subjects being 20 company directors, management positions at the company, chief accountant or chief financial officer 3.2.2.2 Quantitative research methods Because the data of the thesis is a time series with 68 observations with a small number of samples, the author uses the analysis method to estimate time series data by the ARDL Bounds Test autoregressive delay distribution model developed by Pesaran and Shin (1999), Pesaran et al (2001) 3.2.3 Experimental research model Since then, in this study, the author uses the analytical method to estimate the time series data by the ARDL Bounds Test autoregressive delay distribution model proposed by Pesaran and Shin (1999), Pesaran et al (2001), to determine the impact of macroeconomic factors on the Vietnamese corporate bond market The ARDL model (p0, p1, p2, p3,…, pn) has the form: �0 � ������−� + ��=0 �1� ����−� + �2 � ������−� + �=1 0� �=0 2� �3 �4 �5 � �����−� + �=0 �4� �2�−� + �=0 �5� ���−� + �6 � ����−� �=0 3� �=0 6� ������ = � + + �7 � �������−� �=0 7� + �� (first) In which: All variables are explained in Section 3.1 and converted to growth form except for GDP, M2 (both are growth rates) and SP (in % units) and CRISIS variables The symbol pi (i = 0.1,2,…7) is the corresponding delay of each variable in the ARDL model that is self-calculated according to the adjusted AIC, SC, HQ and R-square information standards The number of time periods of the observed sample is n where t = m+1, m+2,…,n where m is the optimal delay ϵ _t is the noise/residual component of the system 21 CHAPTER RESEARCH RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 4.1 The development situation of the corporate bond market in Vietnam in the period 2000 - 2020 4.1.1 Summary of Vietnam's macroeconomic context in the period 2000 - 2020 overview summarizes the situation of Vietnam's economy in the period 2000 - 2020 to see the necessary factors for the development of the corporate bond market 4.1 2.Development status of Corporate Bond Market in Vietnam Assessing the development status of the corporate bond market in Vietnam in the period 2004 - 2020 Achievements First, the legal framework on corporate bonds has been and is being completed Second, rapid growth in market size Third, diversify products, issuers and investors Fourth, the increasingly improved infrastructure creates favorable conditions for the corporate bond market to develop Limitations First, the market size is still too small compared to the bank credit channel Second, the bond market structure is unbalanced Third, the secondary trading market has not yet developed Fourth, the product is still quite simple, not diversified and not attractive enough for investors Fifth, the market has not yet attracted many professional institutional investors Sixth, the infrastructure of the corporate bond market is still incomplete: Lack of credit rating agencies and credit rating services in the Vietnamese corporate bond 22 market, There are not really market makers.; The information technology system to support the operation of the corporate bond market is still incomplete; 4.2 The results of the expert survey on the corporate bond market and the survey of bond issuers in Vietnam 1.1 Results of expert survey on Vietnam corporate bond market When examining the relationship between the development of the corporate bond market and the macroeconomic factors in Vietnam, experts all say that the development of the corporate bond market is affected by macroeconomic factors (with 90% of the people surveyed) In particular, the survey results show that a number of macroeconomic factors affecting the development of the corporate bond market in Vietnam are listed as follows: Table 4.1 : Survey results of macroeconomic factors affecting the development of corporate bond market in Vietnam STT Factor Ratio first Economic growth 95% Inflationary 90% Interest rate 90% Financial crisis 75% M2 money supply 65% Exchange rate 65% Economic openness 40% Oil prices 40% Gold price 35% ten Some other factors such as credit growth, legal policy on bonds, etc 5% Source: Author's own compilation 23 Through the survey results and assessment of the actual operation of the corporate bond market, in order to develop the corporate bond market in the coming time, experts have pointed out the following contents that need to be focused on: First, Continue to implement the policy of stabilizing the macro-economy in order to grow the economy, control inflation, reduce interest rates, and ensure the money supply for the economy (at the rate of 85%) Developing the corporate bond market is associated with the Government's sustainable economic development goals, while focusing on corporate social responsibility and environmental protection factor, therefore, green bonds should be given more attention Vietnam's corporate bond market has only grown strongly in the last 3-4 years and is also at the stage where it is necessary to build a good foundation for development The platform includes key elements such as: 1/ Appropriate legal regulations, 2/ Create a playground and, 3/ Attract many stakeholders Specifically: 1/ Appropriate legal regulations include the issuance of more liberal regulations by the management agency (for example, the regulation on listing corporate bonds to simplify procedures and shorten the review time), without changing the regulations changed too much (from 2018 up to now, there have been changes to the main adjustment documents on corporate bond issuance: the BTC issued Decree 153/2020 replacing Decree 163/2018 and replacing Decree 81/2020, Decree 81/2020/ Decree-CP amending Decree 163/2018, Decree 163/2018 amending Decree 90/2011) 2/ Creating a playground means having a "field" for investors to easily join, easily place buy and sell orders, and easily grasp the regulations when participating Currently, only professional investors (who are a minority of the total number of investors today) can buy private placement corporate bonds (privately issued corporate bonds are the issuing channel accounting for more than 90% of total corporate bond issuance value annually) and there is no corporate bond trading system for these individual corporate bonds (Investors can only hold to maturity or 24 resell to the person who sold them, but have little chance of selling to others because there is no there is a centralized trading market) 3/ Attract many participants related to Italy - create a playing field Once there is a playground, plus the supply of goods to the market is more diversified Currently, there are very few corporate bonds with payment guarantees from reputable organizations/banks, lack of diversity in the industry of the Issuers - more than 70% are corporate bonds issued by banks and real estate companies Issued real estate, lack of derivative products from corporate bonds, goods being corporate bond investment fund certificates are of little interest to investors, etc When commodities are diversified, interest rates are diversified, and risk levels are diversified (with payment guarantee and without guarantee/collateral), there is a trading market to increase liquidity, open to all types of investors (not limited to only professional investors like at present), the Vietnamese corporate bond market will develop better Second, Develop a professional securities investor base system: open-ended investment funds, real estate investment funds, public securities investment companies, investment-linked insurance products, pension funds voluntary position, etc (at the rate of 80%) Third, universally train and propagate knowledge about corporate bonds and the corporate bond market (accounting for 80%) Fourth, Improve the efficiency of market management and supervision by the State Securities Commission and relevant departments (70%) (i) To further strengthen inspection, supervision and handling of violations related to the issuance and circulation of corporate bonds; (ii) Transparency in corporate information, promoting the activities of independent credit rating agencies on business operations, transparency in collateral assets, increasing the liquidity of bond products; (iv) Control the issuance frequency and volume of real estate companies Provide a set of evaluation criteria for each industry to manage debt bond issuers, 25 especially construction and real estate businesses, to avoid insolvency like real estate companies China; (v) building a solid legal framework and mechanism to protect investors Fifth, Developing new products: derivative securities, bonds with inflation index, global depository certificates, etc Sixth, to improve the system of liquidity and payment for transactions such as payment for bond transactions for the State Bank of Vietnam Seventh, Restructuring securities companies and funds according to criteria of financial safety, risk management capacity, applying merger or dissolution when they are not capable of operation 4.2.2 _ Survey results of bond issuers The advantages of companies raising capital through the corporate bond market receive are: - Timely response to the company's capital needs - Create more capital mobilization channels, diversify capital mobilization methods - Mobilizing capital from many organizations and individuals other than banks - Raised a large amount of capital Once issued, time to raise for the next issuance shall be quicker because the partners already have maintained a relationship and appraised the previous issuance, so the following raise does not take much time to offer and wait for the partner to appraise - Because this is the trend of raising capital in recent years, bond issuers are supported, advised, and underwritten by banks and securities companies, so the procedure is simple and quick Besides the advantages of issuing bonds, companies face the following main difficulties: 26 Due to bad influence from news of corporate bond default in China (the event that China Evergrande Group defaulted on billions of USD worth of bonds value) and some Inefficient businesses, deliberately violating regulations when issuing bonds, leading to concern for bond investors However, for reputable enterprises with good financial situation, the issuance of bonds is not affected too much Due to the policy of limiting credit sources, including bonds, into the real estate industry, it causes difficulties for businesses in this field in fully meeting the bond issuance documents required by the bank and securities companies Research results on the impact of some macroeconomic factors on the development of the corporate bond market in Vietnam in the period 2004 2020 After satisfying the diagnostic testing conditions of the ARDL Bounds Test model, the short-term and long-term impact research results are shown as follows: Table 4.1 : Estimation of long-run coefficient of ARDL model (Dependent variable D(CBMDM)) Variable Coefficient GDP INF M2 OPENM SP FXM CRISIS 5.1791 -0.1236 1.2085 0.1569 -6.7514 -3.1874 -2.4981 Standard deviation 1.8044 0.2131 0.6702 24.8387 5.3366 2.063 10,4601 Statistics 2.8708 -0.5803 1.8031 0.6317 -1.2651 -1.5887 -2.3882 Probability 0.0082*** 0.5669 0.0834* 0.5333 0.2175 0.1247 0.0248** ***,**,* indicate significance at 1%, 5%, and 10%, respectively Source: Author's calculation on Eviews 10 software Table 4.1 : Calculation results of short-term impacts by ECM model Variable OLD (Dependent variable D(CBMDM)) Standard Coefficient deviation Statistics -4.2798 0.5369 -7.9699 Probability 0.0000*** 27 D(CBMDM(-2)) D(GDP(-1)) D(CPI) D(M2) D(M2(-3)) D(OPENM(-1)) D(SP(-1)) D(FXM) D(FXM(-1)) D(CRISIS) EC adjustment factor t-1 * 0.1821 -1.5718 -0.5305 -0.3638 -0.3714 -0.2139 2.7283 -1.4149 0.5922 -2.4948 0.0862 0.3244 0.1674 0.1217 0.1354 3.7155 0.5852 0.2519 0.2726 1.8327 2.1108 -4.8439 -3.1683 -2.9884 -2.7422 -5.7585 4.6616 -5.6167 2.1721 -13.6125 0.0450** 0.0001*** 0.0040** 0.0062*** 0.0111** 0.0000*** 0.0001*** 0.0000*** 0.0395** 0.0000*** -0.3434 0.0284 -12.0693 0.0000*** EC = CBMDM - (5.1791*GDP -0.1236*INF + 1.2085*M2 + 0.1569*OPENM -6.7514*SP -3.1874*FXM -2.4981*CRISIS ) ***,**,* indicate significance at 1%, 5%, and 10%, respectively Source: Author's calculation on Eviews 10 software The research model explains 89.87% of the development of the corporate bond market in Vietnam in the period 2004-2020 by the impact of economic growth and macroeconomic factors The ECM coefficient = – 0.3434 has 1% significance, showing that 34.34% of the difference between the short-term value and the long-run equilibrium value of CBMDM will be adjusted for each period and time to complete the transaction adjustment took nearly months (2.9 quarters) The research results show that, both in the short and long term, economic growth, M2 money supply and the financial crisis all have an impact on the development of the corporate bond market In which, the economic growth and money supply variables M2 have a positive impact, the financial crisis variable has a negative impact on the development of the corporate bond market 28 CHAPTER SOME RECOMMENDATIONS AND SOLUTIONS TO DEVELOP THE CORPORATE BOND MARKET IN VIET NAM 5.1 Recent macroeconomic developments in Vietnam A few developments in the macroeconomic situation show that the medium-term economic outlook in Vietnam is still positive, although the economy is negatively impacted by the Covid-19 epidemic, Vietnam's GDP is expected to grow around 4.8% for the whole of 2021 5.2 Business environment and obstacles of Vietnamese enterprises in the recent period The business environment has improved, but the pace of improvement is still slow Some obstacles that Vietnamese enterprises are facing In addition to administrative procedures, the 2016 survey of Vietnamese businesses conducted by the World Bank showed that access to finance was considered the most serious obstacle for 22% of surveyed businesses This is followed by informal competition (17%) and low skill level of workers (10%) as shown in Figure 5.2, which are major obstacles facing the private sector in recent times this The above ranking shows that management levels need to pay attention and remove, especially find ways to increase the mobilization of long-term financial sources, including capital from the corporate bond market in Vietnam to support the development of enterprises enterprise development 5.3 Development prospects and obstacles of Vietnam's corporate bond market Development prospects for corporate bond market is widely assessed in the coming years A well-developed corporate bond market will create opportunities to diversify appropriate financial instruments to meet capital needs for many fields and industries 29 There is growth prospect, but currently, the legal framework seems to be the main obstacle to the development of the nascent corporate bond market in Vietnam Public disclosure of market information is limited The lack of a culture of credit rating assessment on the basis of full disclosure is also a weakness of the Vietnamese corporate bond market The operation on the secondary market is still weak, the market mechanism and infrastructure has not been completed 5.4 Some recommendations and solutions to develop the corporate bond market in Vietnam 5.4.1 Solutions for Enterprises Raise awareness and encourage businesses to issue bonds to raise capital Carefully prepare the important factors when the business prepares to issue bonds Towards the issuance of bonds to the international market 5.4.2 Recommendations for State management agencies Maintain a stable and growing macroeconomic environment Enhancing the roles and responsibilities of regulatory agencies in corporate bond market management Continue to improve and organize the implementation of new mechanisms and policies to enhance market transparency Improve the transparency and liquidity of the corporate bond market through the development of market infrastructure The management agency needs to quickly complete and upgrade the corporate bond information page at the Hanoi Stock Exchange so that investors can easily access information; Building a specialized secondary trading market for privately issued corporate bonds for professional securities investors and perfecting the legal framework for the organization of individual corporate bond trading activities; Encourage and develop credit rating 30 activities; Promote the role of market maker; Promote the activities of financial intermediaries and financial services Develop stable supply and demand in corporate bond market Build a standard yield curve for corporate bonds Pay attention to and improve professional training and propaganda on corporate bonds 5.5 Limitations of the thesis and future research directions Although the PhD student has tried to research, the thesis still has some limitations as follows: First, the limitation of research data Although the thesis selected the period of quarterly data collection from the first quarter of 2004 to the fourth quarter of 2020, it has fully reflected the development process of the corporate bond market in Vietnam However, the thesis will be completed in 2022, but because the data of the corporate bond market and some macro factors in 2021 have not been completed and officially announced, the research has not been updated If it is possible to deploy and update more data sets in the direction of extending the research period, it is possible that there will be new discoveries of real scientific value Further studies may be for a longer period Second, the number of subjects reached in the qualitative method is still limited because the time to conduct the survey is not much Therefore, the next research direction is to expand the survey subjects, increase the number of experts interviewed in-depth in the industry and the number of bond issuers Third, due to limited research capacity and research data, the thesis has not evaluated the influence of micro factors on the development of corporate bond market Therefore, the following studies can study and exploit this segment to better clarify the factors affecting the development of the market to draw the necessary recommendations at the micro-level 31 ... State Bank of Vietnam, the Ministry of Finance of Vietnam, the General Statistics Office of Vietnam during the period period 2004 - 2020 Table 3.2: Research data sources STT Variable name Symbol first... corporate bond market in Vietnam in the period 2000 - 2020 4.1.1 Summary of Vietnam's macroeconomic context in the period 2000 - 2020 overview summarizes the situation of Vietnam's economy in the period... Vietnam 1.1 Results of expert survey on Vietnam corporate bond market When examining the relationship between the development of the corporate bond market and the macroeconomic factors in Vietnam,