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MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING CAN THO UNIVERSITY SUMMARY OF DOCTORAL THESIS Specialization: Land Management Code: 62 85 01 03 HUYNH PHU HIEP EVALUATING THE FACTORS AFFECTING THE IMPLEMENTED RESULTS OF LAND USE PLAN FOR THE BASIS OF LAND USE PLANNING UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE CONDITIONS – CASE STUDY IN CAN THO CITY Can Tho, 2021 RESEARCH COMPLETED AT CAN THO UNIVERSITY The main supervisor: Associate Professor Dr Le Van Khoa The thesis is defended at the jury of university level At: ………………… , Can Tho University At… hour… day… month… year… Reviewer 1: Reviewer 2: Thesis can be found at the library: Learning Resource Center - Can Tho University National Library of Vietnam LIST OF PUBLISHED RESEARCH Huynh Phu Hiep, Le Quang Tri, Le Van Khoa, Nguyen Thi Ngoc Lan, 2018 Assessing the impact of human factors on the land use plan of Can Tho city Vietnam Journal of Soil Science, No 53/2018 Page 95-99 Huynh Phu Hiep, Le Nguyen Thi Bich Thu, Le Van Khoa and Nguyen Thi Ngoc Lan, 2019 Evaluating the factors affecting the implemented results of the land use plan 2006-2014 as the basis for land use planning by 2030 in Can Tho city Science Journal of Can Tho University Episode 55 No 3A in 2019 Page 33-43 CHAPTER INTRODUCTION 1.1 Research problem Land is the most important resource, the premise for the development of a country Land use planning has always been an important aspect in general national or local development planning Today, in countries vulnerable to climate change such as Vietnam, climate change has a significant impact on land use change Can Tho, with its position as the development center of the Southwest region, makes the great contributions to research and development of agricultural production in Vietnam, so the management and suitable use of land resources are decisive in the development process One of the biggest limitations that reduces the efficiency of land use is the land use planning, which does not fully integrate the necessary aspects in the planning Many cases of planning are formal, idealistic, lacking the scientific basis and not suitable for practice and long-term development In fact, due to the lack of scientific planning methods, which does not analyze the impact factors affecting the efficiency of land use, including the impact of climate change, reducing the efficiency of land use In addition, because the management system has many limitations from land policy to planning implementation, slowing down the overcoming of the impacts of the development process or limiting factors affecting land resources, causing longterm impacts on the sustainable development process of the region Analysis and assessment of the factors affecting the effectiveness of land use planning including the impact of climate change is an important requirement in land use planning to identify the solutions to implement the effective and sustainable land use planning Therefore, “Evaluating the factors affecting the implemented results of land use plan for land use planning under climate change conditions - Case study in Can Tho city” is necessarily needed to be done 1.2 Research objective - General objective: Studying the factors affecting the implemented results of land use plan and planning and the impacts of climate change; creating a basis for proposing the effective methods and solutions for the next land use planning period; strengthening the feasibility of land use planning, contributing to the management of resources, serving the sustainable development of Can Tho city - Specific objectives: (1) Determining the groups of factors affecting the implementation of 2006 - 2015 land use plan and planning of Can Tho city; (2) Analyzing the integrated impacts of factor groups: socio-economics, land policies, technical process and climate change factor groups on the implementation of 2006 - 2015 land use plan and planning of Can Tho city; (3) Formatted: Font: 10.5 pt Formatted: Font: 10.5 pt Formatted: Line spacing: Multiple 1.1 li Proposing integrated solutions to enhance the effectiveness of land use and land use planning for Can Tho city on the basis of groups of main influencing factors 1.3 Research content Formatted: Font: 10.5 pt (1) Compiling and summarizing the implementation of the 2006-2015 land use plan and planning of Can Tho city (2) Identifying factors affecting the land use zoning and planning 2006 - 2015 (3) Proposing solutions and building the plan for effective and sustainable land use plan and planning under the impact of climate change Formatted: Space Before: pt, After: pt, Line spacing: single 1.4 Research subject Formatted: Font: 10.5 pt The thesis focuses on studying the groups of factors affecting the implementation of the 2006-2015 land use planning of Can Tho city, including: Socio-economic, Land Policy, Engineering Process and Climate Change (essentially on increase in temperature, change in precipitation, saline intrusion and inundation factors) Formatted: Space Before: pt, After: pt, Line spacing: Multiple 1.1 li 1.5 Research scope Formatted: Space Before: pt, After: pt, Line spacing: Multiple 1.1 li The study was executed on 03 representative districts of the study area, including: Cai Rang district, Phong Dien district and Vinh Thanh district in Can Tho city 1.6 The scientific and practical meaning of the thesis - Scientific meaning: (1) Theoretical and practical scientific basis for land use plan and planning; (2) Supplementary materials for training and scientific research in land management discipline; (3) Supplementary materials on planning theory and planning for sustainable use of land resources; (4) Fully integrating of natural, economic, social, and climate change factors and tools for a fully scientific and practical planning meets to the development conditions of Can Tho city; and (5) Contributing to the improvement of land use planning, especially for the sustainable development of Can Tho city - Practical meaning: (1) An important basis for assessment and planning of land use Orientation for making effective planning and land use plan for the period 20212030; (2) Necessary source of documents for state management departments to study and make land use planning; (3) Equipping the regional managers and planners with the planning methods and tools to adapt to the fluctuations of natural - economics - social conditions and climate change, to meet the long-term development process; (4) Improving the feasibility and efficiency of the planning and reducing the errors of the planning; and (5) Strengthening the suitable use of land resources of Can Tho city Formatted: Space Before: pt, After: pt, Line spacing: Multiple 1.1 li Formatted: Font: 10.5 pt Formatted: Font: 10.5 pt 1.7 New contributions of the thesis (1) Determining the importance of factor groups affecting land use planning in the typical conditions of Can Tho city, in which the human factor group presents an important role related to land use but has not been minutely and properly analyzed by the previous studies (2) Integrating the impact of climate change factor group with the groups of natural, economics and social factor for the different types of land, identifying the flooding factor that affects land use planning; (3) Supplementing land use planning techniques, completing land use planning theory and applicability in practice, overcoming limitations of traditional planning work, enhancing the feasibility and efficiency of land use planning, improving the economic benefits for farmers and the ecological benefits for the sustainable development of Can Tho city and (4) Contributing to the consolidation of the legal system and government policies to enhance the role of the human factor group in the implementation of land use planning and concurrently developing the steps to implement the effective land use plan and planning under the impact of climate change CHAPTER OVERVIEW OF RESEARCH Land use planning is always a dynamic planning and spiral process: “Plan - Do - Plan" (Le Quang Tri, 2005) There are many shortcomings in the current land use planning, such as: Annual land use plans of district-level are slowly approved; The work of formulation, appraisal and approval of planning is prolonged; Scheduling is not uniform in time; The quality of many plans is still low and inconsistent; Land use planning has not yet become a "live plan", the universality is not high, the planning adjustment process is not very reasonable to ensure timeliness and suitability with practical requirements (Nguyen Dinh Bong, 2007) The problem of land use planning in the past time has been implemented on the basis of the current land use status, based on the subjective will of managers, the level of capacity to evaluate planning is limited, with little participation of the community, so there are often conflicts in the implementation process Currently, there are many inadequacies occurring between people who has land in the planning area and the planners affecting the community (Le Quang Tri, 2010) The current legislation on land use planning in Vietnam is still lacking in synchronicity, feasibility, predictability and stability, publicity, transparency and democracy (Le Thi Phuc, 2014) Land use planning is affected by many factors (Le Anh Tuan, Vo Quang Minh, 2015), in which main factors of people in the human factor group working together create the main influence: land users, leaders, planners (Le Quang Tri, 2010) Through studies on land use planning, it has been shown that there are many causes affecting land use planning, in order to develop and to implement effectively land use planning in the typical conditions of Can Tho city, the study of assessment on the impact of socio-economic factor group, land policy factor group, technical process factor group (These factor groups are affected by the group of human factor) and climate change factor group is very important and necessary to propose feasible, effective and sustainable solutions and processes for making land use planning in Can Tho city CHAPTER 3.THE RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 3.1 Data collection methods Directly collecting data from the relevant departments, agencies on the implementation of land use plan of Can Tho city in the period of 2006-2010 and 2011-2015 3.2 Investigation methods This was done through the questionnaire, using the Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) method to the following subjects: Leaders, Implementers, Investors, Planners 3.3 MCA analysis method with AHP - GDM technique Determining the weight of factors: (1) Determining the criteria (2) Determining the weight 3.4 SWOT analysis method Applying SWOT analysis method as a basis for proposing solutions and developing land use zoning plan Figure 3.1 Diagram of the research implementation steps CHAPTER THE RESEARCH RESULTS 4.1 Determining the factors affecting the implementation of the land use plan in 2006-2015 Survey results from people and local authorities in the planning areas of Cai Rang district, Phong Dien district and Vinh Thanh district, show that the group of natural conditions factor has a very small affect to the implementation of land use plan, 100% of households said that the conditions of soil quality, temperature, humidity, and rainfall were suitable for agricultural cultivation Instead of the factors affecting implementation of land use plan mainly belongs to the socio-economic group and the land policy group In order to assess the impact of the factors affecting the implementation of the land use plan, consultation with an expert (who is directly in charge of land use zoning and planning of Can Tho city in recent past years) with the goal of determining the impact level of the factors groups and scoring the factors Therefrom, using multi-criteria analysis (MCA) with AHP-GDM technique to determine the impact level of each factor in order to find the main factors The results of analysis and actual investigation show groups of impact factors: socio-economic, land policy and technical process, hereinafter referred as level factor In each group of factor level has some impact factors called level factor, the results are presented in Table 4.1 Table 4.1 Factor level and level affecting the implementation of land use plan Level factor Socio-economics Level factor Market price Capability of capital Export market Infrastructure (technical, social) Synchronization between related branches Population, labor Custom People's participation Land policy Compensation, support, and resettlement in land acquisition Attracting investment Vocational training, employment Capital support Level factor Level factor Technical process Data collected and measured Qualifications and experiences of planner Manage, inspect and supervise the implementation (Source: survey result in 2017)  Considering the level factor: Summary of the expert opinions on the impact level of groups of factors on the implementation of the land use plan is shown in Table 4.2 Table 4.2 The priority result of the level factor Factor i Assessment results of expert order j Land policy Socioeconomics Technical process Land policy Technical process CR (%) Synth esis 1/3 1/3 1/2 1/3 1,115 4 4,228 5 4,013 0,79 8,17 3,34 2,51 4,67 7,47 3,34 7,47 7,53 0,03 Through the results, Table 4.2 shows that each group of factors has the different degrees of impact on the implementation of the land use plan Specifically, the impact of socio-economic factor is more important than land policy factor with the score 1,115; The socio-economic factor is 4,228 times more important than the technical process factor, and the land policy factor is assessed as 4,013 times more important than the technical process The consistency ratio (CR) of each expert is less than 10%, showing that each expert's judgment on groups of factors is suitable for inclusion and determining the weights for each group of factors Therefrom, the matrix table comparing the two factors from the sum of experts is calculated as shown in Table 4.3 Table 4.3 Pairwise comparison matrix on the importance of level factor SocioTechnical Factor Land policy Weight economics process Socio-economics 29/26 389/92 0,47 Land policy 26/29 305/76 0,43 Technical process 22/93 1/4 0,11 Through Table 4.3 shows, the result of weighted value matrix of socio-economic factor is 0.47 most influences on implementation of land use plan; followed by the factor of land policy with weights of 0.43 and the factor of the technical process 0.11 The assessment results determine the importance of level factor in descending order: socio-economic> land policy> technical process In each level factor has the level factors and the results of impacting level assessment as following :  Considering the level factor: Assessing the factors of socio-economic groups: synthesizing the expert opinions on the impacts of socio-economic factors on the implementation of land use plan, the calculation results of weighted value matrix of the socio-economic groups is assessed and sorted in descending order: market price> capability of capital> export market> synchronization between related branches> infrastructure> population, labor> customs> people's participation Assessing the factors of land policy group: synthesizing the expert opinions on the impact of land policy factors on the implementation of land use plan, the calculation results of weighted value matrix of the land policy group is assessed and sorted in descending order: compensation, support, and resettlement in land acquisition> attracting investment> capital support> vocational training, employment Assessing the factors of technical process group: Synthesizing the expert opinion on the impact of technical process factors affecting the implementation of land use plan, the calculation results of weighted value matrix of technical process factors are assessed and sorted in descending order: qualifications and experiences of planner> data collected and measured> manage, inspect and supervise the implementation Based on the weights of level factor and level factor, the total weights by multiplying the weights level factor and level factor, are calculated and presented in Table 4.4 Table 4.4 Total weight of the factors affecting the implementation of land use plan Weight of factors Level factor Socioeconomics w1 Total weight Level factor w=w1*w2 Market price 0,22 0,103 Capability of capital 0,24 0,113 Export market 0,19 0,089 Infrastructure (technical, social) 0,11 0,052 Synchronization between related branches 0,12 0,056 Population, labor 0,04 0,019 People's participation 0,03 0,014 Custom 0,04 0,019 Attracting investment 0,33 0,142 0,09 0,039 0,18 0,077 0,34 0,037 0,47 0,052 0,19 0,021 0,47 Vocational training, employment Capital support Technical process w2 Data collected and measured 0,11 Qualifications and experiences of planner Manage, inspect and supervise the implementation The results of total weighting, Table 4.4 shows that the market price and the capability of capital are the decisive factor in socio-economic group, the factor of compensation, support, and resettlement in land acquisition is the main factor of the land policy group and for the technical process factor group is the qualifications and experiences of planner These three factor groups are all received by the impact from the human factor group In order to determine how the role of human affects the implementation of land use plan, the People, the Leaders, the Investor, and the Planner must be surveyed (through questionnaires) and synthesizing the expert opinions Therefrom, applying multi-criteria analysis (MCA) with AHP- GDM technique to determine the impact level of each factor through the pairwise comparison value of the experts and total comparison matrix The results have identified groups of factors: Leaders, Implementers, Investors, Land Use Planners (called level Factor) Among the level factors divided into 16 level factors that have an impact on the land use plan of Can Tho city are shown in Table 4.5 Table 4.5 Factors Level and Level of the human factor group affecting the implementation of the land use plan in the period of 2006 - 2015 Factors Level Factors Level Policy of government Sector participation Leaders Current land use Compensation, support, resettlement Management and supervision Economic conditions Implementers Local customs Education level Labor source Capital Investors Execution time Local policy Demand of the people Qualifications and capabilities Planners Data collection Policy of government  Considering the level factor Synthesizing the expert opinions on the impact of factors group on the implementation of the land use plan is shown in Table 4.6 10 Table 4.6 Pairwise comparison value of level factor from experts Comparison i Leaders Assessment results of expert no j Aij Implement ers 2 2 87/38 2,29 Investors 27/13 2,08 Planners 2 / 1 1 121/85 1,42 Investors 1/ 1/ 1/ 50/63 0,79 Planners 175/78 2,24 Planners 1 1 1 2 63/50 1,26 Impleme nters Investors CR (%) 4.41 2.25 6.53 7.78 4.36 4.35 6.91 7.98 6,42 The results from Table 4.6 show that the consistency ratio (CR) of 09 experts is less than 10%, showing that each expert's judgment on groups of factors is suitable for inclusion and determining the weights for each group of factors The table of matrix comparing pairs between the factors determined from the calculation of the pairwise comparison value is shown in Table 4.7 Table 4.7 Synthetic comparison matrix of the level factors and the weight of the combined factors Standard Leaders Leaders Implementers Investors Planners Weight 87/38 27/13 121/85 0,38 Implementers 38/87 50/63 175/78 0,23 Investors 13/27 63/50 63/50 0,22 Planners 26/37 37/83 50/63 0,17 11 The results of the synthetic comparison matrix in Table 4.7 show that the Leader factor has the highest influence, followed by the Implementer factor, the Investor factor and the lowest is the Planner factor In each level factor, has the specific level factors and the results of impacting level assessment as following:  Considering the level factor Leader factor: The assessment results of 09 experts on the influence of factors through the pairwise comparison value, determined the synthetic comparison matrix results, determined the importance of the factors and sorted in descending order: policy of goverment factor> sector participation factor> current land use factor> compensation, support, resettlement factor = management and supervision factor Implementer factor: The assessment results of 09 experts on the importance of the factors in descending order: economic conditions factors = education level factor> labor source factor> local customs factor Investor factor: The assessment results of 09 experts on the importance of the factors in descending order: capital factor > execution time factor > local policy factor > Demand of the people factor Planner factor: The assessment results of 09 experts on the importance of the factors in descending order: policy of government factor > qualifications and capabilities factor > data collection factor From the weighting results of level and level factors of human factor group and thereby calculating the total weight of each factor is presented in Table 4.8 Table 4.8 Total weight table Level factor Leaders Implementers Weight of level factor (W1) 0,38 0,23 Level factor Policy of government Sector participation Current land use Compensation, support, resettlement Management and supervision Economic conditions Local customs Education level Labor source 12 Weight of level factor (W2) Total Weight (W) 0.2517 0.0957 0.2142 0.1942 0.0814 0.0738 0.1719 0.0653 0.1681 0.0639 0.3184 0.0732 0.1714 0.3200 0.1902 0.0394 0.0736 0.0437 Level factor Investors Planners Weight of level factor (W1) 0,22 0,17 Level factor Capital Execution time Local policy Demand of the people Qualifications and capabilities Data collection Policy of government Weight of level factor (W2) Total Weight (W) 0.3309 0.2389 0.2830 0.0728 0.0526 0.0622 0.1472 0.0324 0.3688 0.0627 0.1818 0.0309 0.4494 0.0764 The results of Table 4.8 show that the policy of government is very important in the leader factor, the education level and economic conditions factor are very important in the implementer factor, as for the investor factor, the capital factor is very important and the policy of government is very important in the planner factor These factors have a direct influence on the implementation of land use plan of Can Tho city in the period of 2006 - 2015 4.2 Comparation and identifying the human and climate Change impacts on the implementation of land use zoning and planning Human impact: It is the most important, decisive factor in the implementation of the land use plan This study identified a group of Leaders, Implementers, Investors and Planners, also made a comprehensive assessment using MCA method with AHPGDM technique and based on that results to identify the importance of each factor that can be used as the basis for making land use plan for the period of 2021-2030 Impacts of climate change: According to the climate change scenario, it is forecasted that by 2030, Can Tho city has a very large area of flooded land, occupying entirely land area of the city with the different depths, they are 1.5m, it is shown in Table 4.9 Table 4.9 Statistics of flooded areas by the different depths of Can Tho city according to the climate change scenario in 2016 No Depth (meter) >1,5 0,6 – 1,5