Kit qua cda cugc gap thugng dinh G20 cdn cho thay khdng chi don thuan la viec tang kinh phi hd trg cho cac nen kinh te kem phat trien hay la sy ghi nhan ve vai trd quan trgng eda nhd[r]
(1)The gidi: Van de - Svr kien Tap chl Cdng sdn
't'^-iii , A:: : :
CUC DIEN THE GlOl SAU KHUNG HOANG KINH TE • TAI CHJNH
D O S O N HAI *
Susup cua ngdn hdng Lehman Brothers (thdng 9-2008) sau 158 ndm tdn tqi da md dudng cho bdo tdi chinh tren phqm vi todn cdu Tinh den thdng 10-2009 dd cd tdi hon 100 tap dodn vd cdng ty (cd Hnh vuc tdi chinh ldn cdng nghiep) tuyen bd phd san, dd cd nhiing tap dodn khdng Id cua My nhu Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG, CIT, General Motors v.v O vdo vi tri "tdm bdo", My chiu tdn thdt ndng ne nhdt Susuy thodi cua nen kinh te sd the gidi dd khien hdu het cdc qudc gia rai vdo vdng xody khung
^ A
hodng Con lde tdi chinh da ldm the gidi cd nhiing thay ddi mqnh me ndm 2009 Hien tqi, chua the khdng dinh ddy du ve miic dp thiet hqi md cuoc khung hodng ndy se gdy Tuy nhien, quan trpng hon cd Id tdt cd nhdng bien ddi thdi gian qua se dua the gidi ve ddu? Cue dien the gidi se bien ddi sao?
The gidi truwc nam 2008
Sy thay ddi cda the gidi bdm khdng don gian la bao tai chinh gay ma dd chinh la be qua tat yeu cda ea mdt qua trinh van ddng, it nblt la tu diu thap nien 90 cda the ky XX Ke tu sau Chiln tranh lanh ket thdc, chdng ta da chdng kien hai lan thay ddi ldn cua cyc dien the gidi
Cyc dien thu nhat ed the tinh tu sau sy sup dd cda Lien Xd den trudc xay su kien 11-9-2001 Budc khdi Chiln tranh lanh vdi uu the tuyet ddi so sanh vdi phan cdn lai cda the gidi, nhung My da khdng tao dugc mdt cue dien "don cyc" (nhu Ph.Phu-cu-y-a-ma da tdng dy bao cudn saeh ndi tieng dugc xult ban vao nam 1992, cudn "The End of History and the Last Man") nhu mong mudn Cd thi coi day la giai doan chuyen ddi, blu hit cac qudc gia, kl ca sieu cudng nblt la My, diu
cdn dang choang nggp bdi nhiing thay ddi cua the gidi thdi hau Chien tranh lanh, bdi hang loat van de, dae biet la van de phat trien dat nudc Trong bdi canh dd, viec cac qudc gia uu tien cho ddi thoai, hgp tac nham chan nen kinh te la sy lya chgn tat yeu Chinh vi the, ea My vdi tham vgng lanh dao the gidi thi ehinh quyen B.Clin-ton, chu yeu, eiing ehi thyc hien dugc mdt niia khau hieu ma hg dua ra: "Da phuang can thiet, don phuong cd the" Khuynh hudng eoi trgng cac boat ddng da phuong cua nhieu nudc da tao nen mdt cue dien "da trang tam, nhieu tang nac" Co cau "mdt sieu - nhieu cudng" chd yeu phan anh thuc trang ve so sanh lyc lugng giira My vdi cac cudng qudc cdn lai, hon la ve he thdng luat choi ma "hgp tac, lien ket de phat trien" chiem uu the ndi trdi
'• TS, Hpc vien Ngoai giao
(2)The gioi: Va^n dd - Su kien T a p chl C d n g s d n
Sy kien 11-9-2001 da md cue dien thu hai thdi ban Chien tranh lanh Khi lye lugng An Ke-da tan cdng vao nudc My cd le khdng ngd rang hg da kich boat vao tham vgng ba quyen cda nude My ma sau Lien Xd sup do, nhieu ly da bi ehe lap sudt hai nhiem ky cua B.Clin-ton Sy xuat hien hilm hga "khung bd qude te" da thuc day Oa-sinh-ton tir bd thai kiem che d giai doan trade de nd lyc kien tao mdt lien minh nham khang dinh vai trd thu linh the gidi Chinh quyen Bu-sa da bit dau cdng cude bien nhung phdng doan ve mgt the gidi mdt eye cua My giai doan ttudc trd hien thyc chi 12 gid ddng hd sau cac vu tan edng 11-9*'\ Ngudi ta bat dau ta than ve nhirng hanh ddng ed tinh hieu chien, ngao man, phdt Id eac chuan myc phap ly cda "sieu cudng don ddc" My d khap mgi noi Tinh don phuong nghiem trgng nhat cda chinh quyen Bu-so ddi vdi edng ddng qudc te chinh la quyet dinh tan cdng xam luge I-rac (cude chien tranh ma My tiln hanh d Ap-ga-ni-xtan it bi cdng luan soi xet bdi nd xay sau sy kien 11-9 va nhung hanh vi cyc doan cua chinh quyen Ta-h-ban) Cude chiln da md dudng eho viee cdng khai hgc thuylt Bu-so (cdn ggi la hgc thuylt "Danh ddn phu diu") Trong sudt gan hai nhiem ky eua minh, chinh quyen Bu-so vdi tuyen bd "Ai khdng di vdi ta la chdng ta" da ludn dat thi gidi mdt tinh trang cang thang bdi nhung ndi lo vl sy ap dat thudng trye den tu phia nude My
Mgt cau hdi dugc dat la: Tai My lai cd the thilt lap dugc uu thi (dieu le phai cd dugc dudi thdi Tdng thdng B.Clin-ton) tren tradng qudc te? Bdi le, sau nham chuc, ehinh quyen Bu-so da phai ddi mat vdi sdng suy thoai diu tien (Quy III-2001, cac chuyen gia kinh te edng bd, nude My bat dau roi vao tinh nang suy thoai) Nhung sy kien tiep ndi tir sau cude gap thugng dinh thien nien ky 2000 cd the gidp dua mdt sd ly giai sau:
Thu nhdt, sy kien 11-9 ehi td dam them
muc nguy hai cua mgt loat van de ed tinh toan cau nhu khung bd qudc te, nan dieh SARC, H5N1, sdng than Tsunami v.v Ben canh vln dl
phat trien vii bat nhan cua CHDCND Trieu Tien hay chuong trinh phat trien hat nhan cua I-ran, tiep tuc nd nhimg xung dot vu trang dam mau d Trang Ddng (tham chi la giira ndi bd ngudi Pa-le-xtin, giira cac lyc lugng Pha-ta va Ha-mat!), d I-rae, Ap-ga-ni-xtan v.v Qua trinh giai quyet nhihig van de se la co hdi de cho nhihig nudc cd nang lyc, trade het la My vdi tu each cda mdt sieu cudng nhat, the hien vai trd eda hg Chinh quyen Bu-so da tan dung tdi da CO hdi ma sy kien 11 -9 dem lai de khang dinh vai trd eda mdt "ba quyen My"
Thu hai, sy yeu kem cua cac co che qudc te,
nhung dia chi cd the han che tham vgng cua My Hau het sd nhu Lien hgp qudc, NATO, IMF, WB va ca WTO da hinh tir Chien tranh lanh, vay, d nhirng muc khac deu chiu anh hirdng cda My Ban than cac CO che cung dang td khdng du nang lyc de giai quyet cac van de Chang ban nhu tradng hgp cda Co quan Nang lugng nguyen tir qudc te (IAEA), nhung quyet dinh cda co quan hau nhu ching dua den mdt tac dung huu ich nao vln de hat nhan tren ban dao Trieu Tien Tham chi My cdn lgi dung td chuc de cd dugc gily phep cho nhung boat ddng xam luge
Thu ba, vi nhung tinh loan rieng ma muc
phan iing cda mdi nude rat khac trade nhimg hanh ddng don phuong cua My Nhin chung, thai cda blu hit cac nude, trudc bet cda cac nudc ldn, la e de, ngai xung dot vdi My hoac nlu cd thi chi dimg lai d muc gay sy chu vdi chinh quyin Bu-so Khi My phat ddng cugc chiln tranh xam luge I-rIc, da khdng cd mdt phien hgp khan clp nao cua Hdi ddng Bao an Lien hgp qudc, cho du mdt sd nude diu len an hanh ddng cda My vi pham Hiln chuong Lien hgp qudc Dudng nhu hg da "quen" mil quyen phu quylt (Veto) ma hg dang sd hiru vdi tu each la vien thudng trye cua co quan an ninh chuyen trach tdi cao eua Lien hgp qudc! Sy phan
(3)The gidi: Van de - Svr kien Tap chl Cdng sdn
khang cua cac nudc nhd, hau het cac trudng hgp, deu khdng dd sue ran de hay ngan chan chinh sach hilu chien cua My Cac nudc bi huge phai lya chgn giu-a cac van de lien quan den lgi ich dan tdc nhu phat triln kinh te hay chdng khdng bd qudc te vdi viec chdng lai My Sue manh cua My, dac biet la uu the ve kinh te, da cd tac ddng manh len cac quyet sach cda cac qudc gia
Sy tuong tac lgi ich giua cac ben da giup cho viec hinh mdt cue dien "tuong ddi gidng" vdi md hinh "don cyc" - xin nhan manh chi la "tuong ddi gidng" Bdi le, qua trinh thuc thi ba quyen, ban than My cung phai trdng cay rat nhieu vao sy trg gidp cda cac nude khac, nhat la cude chien chdng khdng bd qude te, van de dugc chinh phd Bu-so uu tien hang dau Ndi each khac, gia sir tdn tai cyc dien don cyc, thi vdi tinh chat thudc lan cang eao thdi dai toan cau hda, cue dien chac chan chi ed the tdn tai mdt thdi gian het sue ngan ngdi va rat de bi pha vd Cude khdng hoang tai chinh tren quy md toan cau nd da chung minh dieu dd
Cue dien the gioi mdi
Cude khung hoang tai chinh la he qua cda qua trinh quan ly yeu kem cda My linh vyc nay, nhung neu xet rdng thi day cd le cung la he qua tat yeu cda nhirng cd gang thiet lap mdt the gidi don cyc cua chinh quyen Bu-so Mdt lan sdng chdng ddi My da xuat hien tir nhieu phia, nhieu ddi tugng va nhieu ITnh vyc, trade het linh vyc kinh te, bdi le khdng nudc nao de dang chiu sy ap dat cda nudc khae Hgc thuyet eda Bu-so thyc sy nhu mdt ldi myen chien vdi bat ky qudc gia nao cd chinh sach thu dich vdi My Dieu da lam cho ca nhirng ddng minh trang nhat eua My cung phai canh giac de pbdng^^' Nhung ran nut quan he giua My vdi phan cdn lai cda the gidi cang sau sac Luan diem cda P.Ken-no-dy vl "tinh hdng bach qua cang" va he qua tat yeu la nudc My se suy tan bdi viec vdi tay qua xa ^^^ dang dan ung nghiem
Mat khae, ehinh chinh sach don phuang, edng nhac cda chinh quyen Bu-so, d muc nao dd, lai thdc day sy lien ket giiia cac nudc Y tudng lap Cdng ddng Ddng A da ddi va cd nhirng budc tien dang ke nham hien thyc hda bdi canh dd Sy xich lai gan hon giira Nga, An Dd va Trang Qudc nhu mdt he qua tat yeu tnrdc chinh sach don phuang cda My Trong mdt sd tnrdng hgp, chinh sach cdn trdi huge chinh My Vi du nhu cude chien tranh giira Nga va Gra-di-a, vi van de Nam 6-xe-ti-a, My da khdng the cd dugc phan iing kha hon ngoai sy chap nhan hanh ddng cda Nga nhu la mdt sy da rdi
Con bao tai chinh da cudn di mgi nd luc xay dap mdt the gidi don cyc va tham chi ca nhung ngudi da cd xdy cho nd That bai eua Dang Cdng hda cude bau cu thang 11-2008 dudng nhu da dugc tien lieu Sue tan pha cda cude khung hoang da de dga nghiem trgng den nhirng toan tinh lgi ich ca le, dac biet la tham vgng ba quyen Nen kinh te eua My bi thiet hai nghiem trgng (ngay 12-11-2009, Bd Tai chinh My cdng bd nam tai khda 2009, My da tham hut ngan sach la 1.420 ti USD - muc cao nhat 54 nam qua, tuong dirong 9,9% GDP; ty le that nghiep dat 10,2% - muc cao nhat vdng 26 nam qua)*'^\ va vi the eae nen kinh te khac cung chiu nhirng tdn that khdng nhd Bdi le, chdng ta dang sdng bdi canh toan cau hda, mdi trudng ma sy thudc lan giira eac chu the cang trd nen khang khit Trong bao td tai chinh, mdi thay xuat hien nhirng hien tugng mdi:
Thu nhdt, nhung thay ddi tu nude My Chi
trong vdng chua day mdt nam sau nham chuc, vi tdng thdng tbu 44 cda Hoa Ky da tao mdt bd mat mdi cho dat nudc Ngirdi ta khdng cdn nhan mdt nudc My ludn cd thai ngang
(2) Howard M: What Friend Are For?, The National Interest, Fall 2002, tr
(3) P.Kennedy; Hung thinh vd suy vong ciia cdc cudng quo'c, Nxb Thong tin ly luan Ha Npi, 1992,.tr 197
(4) http://vyvyw.cand.com.vn/news 09-11-2009
(4)The gidi: V i n de - Su kien T a p chl C d n g s d n
nguge, don phuong din hilu chiln nhu thdi Bu-so Thay vao dd la mdt e-kip ludn ggi mdi ddi thoai vdi phan cdn lai cda the gidi, kl ca vdi nhirng qudc gia bi chinh quyen tiln nhiem het vao "Trac ma quy" Tren thyc tl, kit qua dat dugc chua that nhieu, nhung ed le ciing khiln blu khdng cang thing cua thi gidi giam di dang ke Sy dot pha theo hudng hda diu eua chinh quyen 0-ba-ma eac vln de qude tl da dugc cdng ddng qudc te ghi nhan thdng qua viee trao giai thudng Nobel vi hda binh cho vi Tdng thdng da mau dau tien cda nudc My
Thu hai, sy thay ddi mdi quan he giira
cac cudng qudc Nhirng cugc gap giira My vdi cac nudc EU, Nga, Nhat Ban, Trang Qudc cho thay, d mdt muc nhit dinh, giira hg da dat dugc thda hiep nhung ITnh vyc quan trgng nhu tai chinh, hat nhan v.v Vi du diln hinh la viec chinh quyen 0-ba-ma tuyen bd don phuong huy bd chuong trinh la chan ten lua d chau Au, mgt chuong trinh gay nhieu can trd quan he giira My va Nga thdi chinh quyen Bu-so Nhu vay la da cd sy chap nhan chia se quyen lyc giira My vdi cac cudng qudc
Thuba, sy thay ddi quan he Bac - Nam
Cugc gap G20 tai Luan-ddn (thang 4-2009) cho thay cac nude edng nghiep phat trien da cd nhirng suy nghi lai ve vai trd cua cac nudc dang phat triln Kit qua cda cugc gap thugng dinh G20 cdn cho thay khdng chi don thuan la viec tang kinh phi hd trg cho cac nen kinh te kem phat trien hay la sy ghi nhan ve vai trd quan trgng eda nhdm nudc G hon 100 (ten ggi hien eua G77 - nhdm cac qudc gia dang phat triln) Dilm mdi d day la xu hudng chia se quyin lye giua nhdm giau va nhdm ngheo linh vyc kinh tl Ngay sau Chiln ttanh lanh kit thuc, vai trd cua cac nudc vu-a va nhd da tang len dang kl nhung chu ylu Hnh vyc chinh tri, an ninh Thit bai cac vdng dam phan U-ra-goay va Dd-ha giira cac nudc phuong Bac giau cd va phuong Nam ngheo ddi cho thay rieng ITnh vyc kinh tl, cac nudc dang phat trien vln chi cd duge mdt vi tri kha khiem tdn, mdt dilu ching hgp ly chut nao bdi canh toan cau hda
Lieu nhiing thay ddi tren day da khien cue dien cii thay ddi chua? Bdi le, chdng ta chua thay dugc nhung bien ddi manh me tren ca phuong dien so sanh lyc lugng lan he thdng "luat chai" qudc te Khdng it ngudi van cdn hoai nghi ve tam anh hudng ciing nliu tinh ben virng cua nhung thay ddi tren, trade het la chinh sach ddi ngoai cda My Song, cd the nhan dinh rang, nhung thay ddi tren, my mdi chi la budc dau va cd tinh hien tugng don le nhung lai het siic quan trgng va cd tae ddng manh tdi muc lam thay ddi cue dien eu Dieu ed the ly giai bdi nhirng ly sau: 1- Sy thay ddi xuat phat tu My, hat nhan cua cue dien cu Chinh sach ddi ngoai cua chinh quyen 0-ba-ma da cd nhimg thay ddi cd tinh budc ngoat so vdi chinh sach cua Bu-so; 2- Quy md rdng ldn cua sy thay ddi each ung xu vdi cac van de qudc te ndng bdng, trudc bet la nhung van de ITnh vyc kinh te - thuong mai Khung hoang tai chinh da lan rdng tren pham vi loan cau thi duong nhien anh hudng cua nd eiing se khdng ngoai tru bat cu nudc nao, nhat la mdi tnrdng loan cau hda He qua tat yeu cua qua trinh loan cau hda la sy suy giam cua bat cu mdt loai hinh ddc quyen nao; 3- Nguyen nhan chinh dan den nhung thay ddi tren la cac van de kinh te, nhirng van de cd tinh chat co sd nen tang; 4- Khung hoang tai chinh thuc day nhanh hon qua trinh ndi len cua nhirng the lyc mdi, ca nha nude lan phi nha nudc Khdng mdt the lyc nao ngan can dugc sy ndi len cua nhirng the lyc Khi khung hoang qua di, se cd mdt lugng tac nhan ldn chua tiing cd cd kha nang su dung sy anh hudng khu vyc hoac tren toan cau*^\
Tdm lai, cue dien the gidi cu dang thay ddi ve chat Vay thi cyc dien mdi se cd dien mao sao? Tir nhimg thay ddi tren day, chung ta cd the rdt hai dac diem chinh cua cue dien the gidi mdi nhu sau:
(5)The gidi: Van de - Srr kien Tap chl Cdng sdn
Xet ve so sanh lyc lugng, sy thay ddi la khdng ldn so vdi cue dien eu Bdi le, mac du chiu nhieu tdn that nhat tu bao tai chinh, va vi the khoang each giua My va cac cudng qudc khac, dac biet la vdi Trang Qudc, bi thu hep dang ke, nhung My ciing van tiep mc giir vai trd "dau tau" ve nhieu mat ^^\ Sy thay ddi cue dien mdi la nhan thuc cua cae nudc, trudc het la My, ve so sanh lyc lugng Khac vdi thdi Bu-so, chinh quyen 0-ba-ma khdng cho rang nudc My la vugt trdi tdi muc khdng them dem xia gi tdi cac nudc khac Trong qua trinh khac phuc khdng hoang, Trang Qudc, Nga cung khdng cdn qua e ngai My nua, bdi hg nhan thuc dugc vai trd mdi cda minh *^\ Con bao tai chinh ciing chi nhirng yeu kem cda cac co che tai chinh qudc tl nhu IMF, WB Sy ddi cda G20 cd the md dudng eho viec xuat hien nhirng co ehe mdi Nhung co chl chic ehln se cd tinh dan chd hon, edng bang hon vdi eac nudc dang phat trien Cude khung hoang da cho tbly nha nudc van se tiep tuc giir vai trd quan trgng Nhu vay thi cac co che qudc te, cung se cang cd y nghia hon cue dien
Sy thay ddi rd ret ban ca la each iing xu qudc te, nen tang cua he thdng "luat choi" cda quan he qudc te Sau mdt thdi gian ngit quang bdi chinh sach don phuong den mue hilu chiln cua My, xu hudng ddi thoai da quay trd lai Qua trinh tim kiem cac giai phap nham khic phuc khung hoang da thdc day sy chia se quyin lyc mdt each nr nguyen Chinh sach mim deo, mang nhieu tinh thda hiep cua chinh quyin 6-ba-ma phan nao da tao mdt co clu quyin lyc mdi quan he qudc tl Hien tugng duge mdt sd nha nghien euu ggi la "hinh thai khdng phan cyc" dl khing dinh mdi hen he chat che giua cac trang tam chu khdng phai tdn tai rieng re nhu CO clu hai eye thdi Chiln tranh lanb^^) Hien tai, chdng ta chua thay nhung biln chuyin ldn he thdng luat qudc tl Tuy nhien, vdi sy tham gia eda eae nudc nhd hay sy lien kit giua cac td chuc khu vyc (nhu sy phat triln cda co chl ASEM) din din se lam thay ddi he thdng "luat choi" hien hanh
Tat nhien, eung khdng nen qua ao tudng cd mdt sy thay ddi mang tinh tdng the chi khoanh khac Van cdn qua nhieu van de qudc te ddi hdi phai cd thdi gian va nhirng viee lam thyc te mdi cd the dugc giai quyet, vi du nhu van dl hat nhan cua I-ran, cua CHDCND Trieu Tien hay xung dot I-xra-en - Pa-le-xtin v.v Chinh vi the, cue dien the gidi mdi van cdn tdn tai nhieu dac diem cua giai doan trudc, cu the nhu:
1- Vai trd cda Nha nudc van tiep tue chi phdi ca nhimg van de ddi ndi lan ddi ngoai Cac gdi c-ihi trg kinh te cho thay vai trd quan trgng den nhudng nao cda chinh phd thdi khic khdng hoang Ngudi ta lai ndi nhieu ve tinh hun ich cda hgc thuyet Ken (Kerm.es) va chinh saeh "New Deal" cda F Ru-do-ven^^^ Nhung nlu vai trd eua nha nude tang len thi van de bao ve lgi ich cda nha nudc dd (chdng ta thudng su dung ngdn tu "lgi ieh qudc gia") se ludn duge dat len hang dau Xung dot lgi ich giua cac nha nudc, vi vay, cau chuyen nhung bien phap dung de khic phuc nhung mau thuan sinh lai tiep tuc la diep khdc cua lich su Cac bien phap bao hd mau dich co cau khdng phan cyc se cd co hdi de phat trien
2 - Vai trd cda eac co che qudc te, trude het la Lien hgp qudc, se mdt gia tang Trong trang thai khdng phan cyc, sy dn dinh cda the gidi se phu thude rat nhieu vao muc hieu lye phap ly cda cac the che qudc te Ndi each khac, y thue trach nhiem ddi vdi cac quy dinh qude te
(6) "Nhiing tac dpng dia chinh tri cila cuoc khiing hoang tai chinh" Thong tan xa Viet Nam, Tin tham khdo ddc biet -tham khao Chu nhat 05-04-2009
(7) Willy Lam: Beijing Learns to be a Superpower, Far Eastern Econpmic Review (FEER), May 2009; http://feer.com/essays/2009/may/beijing-leams-to-be-a-superpower
(8) Richad N Haass: The Age of Nonpolarity What Will Follow US Dominance, da dan, tr -
(9) F Fukuyama: A New Era The American Interest Vol 4, No 3, January/February 2009, http://www.the-american-interest.com in> n
(6)The gidi: Van dd - Su kien T a p chl C d n g s d n
cua tung vien cae co che dd se cd y nghia quyet dinh ddi vdi tuong lai cda the gidi Trong dd, he thdng luat phap qudc te da dugc dinh hinh tu rat lau, nhieu dieu khoan da khdng cdn thich img vdi hoan canh mdi nua nhung sd nhung nha lam luat (d day mudn ndi la cac nha nudc) khdng phai ciing mudn cd sy thay ddi cai ma hg thudng ggi la "Nhirng nguyen tae bat di bat dieh" Nhirng that bai ma Lien hgp qude dang vudng phai ddi vdi van de hat nhan tren ban dao Trieu Tien cho thay, loai ngudi van dang loay hoay hai sy lya chgn: Bao lyc hay luat phap ^^^K
3 - Md hinh phat trien cua nen kinh te the gidi hien van chua dyng qua nhieu rui ro bdi tinh phi ddi xung cua nd Qua trinh loan cau hda mdi di dugc nhirng bude di ban dau - lap ghep cac nin kinh tl rieng biet lai vdi Nhirng vlt ghep vln hien qua rd, bdi nhung mau thuan giira mdt ben xult khiu va ben nhap khau, giira nhung nha diu tu va ngudi nhan tien hay cdng nghe vln chua cd mdt hudng giai quyet nao dn thda Sy ylu kem cda WTO nhung xung dot giira My va EU; My va Trang Qudc v.v da • chung minh dieu dd Ngay bat cu mdt nen kinh tl nao, tieu biiu nhu nin kinh tl My, ciing chua cTio thiy budc dot pha nao md hinh phat trien Cac chuyen gia kinh tl van loay hoay tim kilm mdt miu hinh phan clp quan ly giira nha nudc va khu vyc tu nhan d muc nao cho thda dang, giam thieu rdi ro
4 - Trong qua trinh giai quylt nhimg van de ndng bdng cda cugc sdng, nhu van de chdng khung bd qudc tl hay vln dl elm phd bien vu hat nhan ching ban, chic ehln se lam sinh nhilu vln dl mdi, tham chi chua gap bao gid Nhung chung ta thyc sy chua cd sy chuan bi de ddi phd, va theo thdi quen thdng tiiudng, chung ta vln qua lam dung nhirng phuong thuc cu ky de giai quylt chdng Z.Bre-din-xki bai bao: "Nhung thach thuc quan trgng ve chinh sach ddi ngoai ddi vdi tan tdng thdng Hoa Ky", sau liet ke mdt loat thach thuc ma nude My
dang phai ddi mat, da khing dinh viec thay ddi chinh sach cung rin cua chinh quyen tien nhiem G.Bu-so la hoan toan hgp ly Tuy nhien, dng van nhln manh ring, nhirng viec lam dd la de nham tri uu thi, khing dinh vi tri sd mdt cua nude My tren thi gidi Ldi m cd dien van tiep tue tdn tai song song vdi luan diem "thay ddi" cua chinh quyin Tdng thdng B.6-ba-ma ' " \
Tdm lai, dudi tac ddng cua cugc khung hoang tai chinh thi gidi dang cd nhung thay ddi va he qua tat ylu la mdt cue dien khdng phan cyc da dan Id dien Cue dien the gidi mdi cd sy dan xen giira nhimg "luat choi" cu va mdi ^^'^\ Dac biet, khdng cd sy thay ddi ldn ve so sanh lyc lugng nen cue dien van cd the tdn tai hinh thuc phan cyc d cap khu vyc
Nhin lai chang dudng 20 nam sau Chien tranh lanh kit thuc, thi gidi da cd that nhilu bien ddi Nhung biln ddi dd dien cang mau le, bdi loai ngudi dang sdng ky nguyen thdng tin va loan clu hda Qua trinh van ddng phan anh sau sic vai trd chu dao cua cac nha nudc, va sy khac biet ve lgi ich qude gia da khiln nhirng thay ddi dd khdng phai luc nao ciing theo mdt dudng thing tien ve phia trude Cugc khung hoang tai ehinh nam 2008 khdng cd sue manh tan pha nhu dai khung hoang
1929 - 1933 nhung cung du tao mdt dien mao mdi cho thi gidi Sy chia se quyen lyc eho thay, cu sau mdi cugc khung hoang ldn, kinh te hay an ninh, ngudi lai tien them mgt budc theo hudng dan chu hon va cdng bang hon Hy vgng thi ky XXI se khep lai vdi nhimg ket qua tdt dep hon cho phan ddng nhan loai •
(10) F Fukuyama: After the Neocons America at the Crossroads, Press Profile Books, London 2006, tr 191
(11) Z Brezinsky: Major Foreign Policy Challenges for the Next US President, Intemational Affairs, Vol 85, Noi, January 2009, pages 53-60/ Ban dich tidng Viet Tai heu nghien cuu, Vien Thong tin KHXH, s6 TN 2009 - 23, tr 11-12
http://vyvyw.cand.com.vn/news. (Kerm.es) http://feer.com/essays/2009/may/beijing-leams-to-be-a-superpower http://www.the-american-interest.com in>.