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MOT SO DANH GIA CUA Glth SlT HOC THE GlOri VE "CHIEN TRANH LANH" NGUYfiN HONG VAN* T huat ngQ "Chien tranh lanh" (1) dUde gidi bao chi phUdng Tay sd dung tQ nam 1947 nham dien ta bdi canh qu6'e te cQe ky cang thang va cugc d6l dau cam go giQa chu nghia tQ ban va ehu nghia xa hgi, dac biet la giQa My va Lien Xd giai doan tQ khoang giQa nhQng nam 40 den cudi nhQng nam 80 - d i u 90 eua the ky XX Mae du "Chien tranh lanh" da lui vao dl vang dQdc 20 nam, cac hge gia qud'c te van khdng ngQng nghien cdu va tranh luan ve cude chie'n tranh dac biet Trong khudn khd bai viet dudi day, ehung tdi chi de cap den tinh hinh nghien cdu ve "Chien tranh lanh" eung nhQng va'n de lien quan de'n "chie'n tranh lanh" dang cdn gay tranh cai gidi sd hge Lien X6/Nga va cae nude phUdng Tay L THirC TRANG NGHIEN CLfU VE "CHIEN TRANH LANH' PHtfONG TAY VA LIEN x / N G A Lich sil "Chien tranh lanh" d phQdng Tay cung nhu d Lien Xd, trUde day p h i n ldn deu dUdc phae hga dUa tren cac tU lieu ciia phUdng Tay Viec tiep can trQc tiep vdi cae trung tam lUu trQ My va phQdng Tay cho phep ngQdi ta viet hang ehuc cdng trinh ve ehinh saeh cua cac nUdc phUdng Tay, ve ' TS Vien Sd hoc su lap NATO, ve qua trinh thdng qua cae quyet saeh ddi ngoai Ta't ca cac van de lien quan de'n Lien Xd va cac nUdc Dong Au, ehu ye'u dUde phan tich gian tie'p thdng qua cac tU lieu tQ cac trung tam lUu trQ cua cac nQde phUdng Tay (2) Cae ngudn tQ lieu tdi mat dQdc cdng bd' tai eae trung tam iQu trQ cua phUdng Tay tiet lg nhQng muc dich chu ye'u cua My va cae ddng minh phQdng Tay thdi ky "Chie'n tranh lanh": tieu diet chii nghla cgng san, ehuyen hda chu nghia xa hgi the gidi ehu nghia tU ban; pha hoai va chia nhd Lien Xd nhieu qud'c gia vQa va nhd, phu thuge vao phUdng Tay; tuyen truyen va phd bie'n tren khap the gidi hinh m i u xa hgi eiia phUdng Tay Muc tieu danh bai va chia nhd Lien Xd dUdc trinh bay hang loat quye't dinh va dao luat ciia Nghi vien Hoa Ky, cac chi thi va ke hoach eua NATO (3) Ne'u nhu trUde day, ngudn tU lieu chu ye'u diJa vao cac sU kien lien quan den cac qud'c gia Tay Au va My thi trung tam cua sQ ehu y lai ddn vao phia Nga Viec md cda cae trung tam luu trQ Lien X6/Nga lam day len sU quan tam ciia cae hge gia va thue day viec nghien cQu sau hdn ve cuoc "Chien tranh lanh" Nhieu cdng trinh va ban thao xua't hien dUa tren cac tU lieu BTot sd danh gia ciia giai sii hoc dUde cdng bd' cua eae trung tam Luu trQ Trung Qdng Dang Cdng san Lien X6, Bg Ngoai giao, Luu trQ Quo'c gia Lien bang Nga va nhieu trung tam luu trQ khac Sau Lien bang X6 viet tan ra, tai Nga da xuat ban mgt s6'c6ng trinh vie't ve hch sQ "Chien tranh lanh" (4) Da cdng bd'eae cud'n hdi ky eua cac nha ngoai giao Lien X6 (5) Qua trinh ket thue "Chie'n tranh lanh" dQdc mieu ta cac cu6'n saeh cua M X Gorbachev va cac cgng sU eua dng (6) Dae biet hdn, tai My chd khdng phai d Nga da cdng bd' eae cdng trinh nghien cdu ve "chien tranh lanh" eua eae hge gia ngUdi Nga (7) Trong sud't may thap nien dien "chie'n tranh lanh", giQa phUdng Tay va phUdng Ddng kh6ng ngQng tranh cai ve cac van de: "chie'n tranh lanh" dien nao va nhu the nao; la ngUdi khdi mao eugc chien tranh dd va nUde nao (hoae ai) phai chiu traeh nhiem ve nhQng hau qua eua nd? "Chie'n tranh lanh" da trd qua khU, song eae cude tranh luan van edn tiep dien Mgt thdi gian dai, cac nhd sd hge Xd viet di theo quan diem "chinh thd'ng" va len an mgt each tuyet doi ngQdi My va eae ddng minh phUdng Tay cua hg trcng viec gay cugc "Chie'n tranh lanh", gin lien dieu vdi ehu nghla ba quyen truyen thd'ng cua nude My Trong cac an phim tra cdu bach khoa thudng nhan manh mUu dd cua My dung "Chie'n tranh lanh" de tao nhQng dieu kien ba't ldi eho mdi trudng ddi ngoai cua Lien Xd; khdi day sU sd hai trUde nguy cd chie'n tranh mdi, nhat la chie'n tranh hat nhan; gay khd khan va can trd sU phat trien eua Lien Xd bing viec ldi keo nUdc vao cugc chay dua vu trang qua sdc minh; ngan ehan tie'n trinh each mang the gidi; nhin nhan lai cac ke't qua cua Chie'n tranh the gidi thd Hai; thie't lap sQ thd'ng tri cua My tren the gidi (8) 61 Ve va'n de he tQ tudng cua "Chien tranh lanh"; cac nhd sd bgc Xd vie't thudng vie't ve chu nghla chd'ng Cdng san nhu mdt ddng lUe eua toan bg qua trinh hinh chinh saeh cua My Ve p h i n minh, sU lieu bgc My vie't ve tU tudng de che cua Stalin, ve chu nghla banh trudng va cac ao tUdng each mang cua lanh tu Lien Xd Vao thap nien 90, cac nha sd hge bat dau ddi chd cho nhau; tai Lien Xd, bdi canh phe phan, chi trich chu nghla Stalin, ngUdi ta bat diu phan ti'ch, md xe cac quye't dinh cua Stalin sau Chie'n tranh the gidi thU Hai, cdn cac nha sd hge va ehinh tri hge My thi edng kich cae hge thuyet va ly luan tU tudng My Trong thdi ky hda diu (nhQng nam 70 the' ky XX), trdng sQ lieu hoc Xd vie't xua't hien nhQng cau chQ mem mong hdn, dd ed de cap den nhQng cd hgi bi bd qua tQ ea hai phia Hien nay, p h i n ldn cac hge gia Nga da khdng cdn nhin nhan "chie'n tranh lanh" tren quan diem gido dieu va chiu anh hudng cua he tU tudng nhU trUde ddy, tQ bd luan diem coi My la thu pham nhat viec gay "Chie'n tranh lanh" Mdt sd' nha nghien cdu tien hanh phan tich, md xe nhQng sai lim va cd hdi bi bd Id cua phia Lien Xd, dd phai ke den cud'n saeh cua N V Zagladin - Lich sd chie'n cong vd that bgi cua ngogi giao Xd viet (Sar^aaHH H B McmopuM ycnexoe u neydauu coaemcKOU dim.io.\tamim -M.; 1990 - 232 c) Day la cdng trinh nghien cdu ve lich sd - ly luan cac van de cd ban boat ddng ddi ngoai cua Dang Cgng san Lien X6 va Nha nUde Xd vie't nhQng giai doan mang tinh bQde ngoat eua da't nQde Viec phan tich cac tQ lieu sd hge dieu kien lich sd mdi (cai td d Lien Xd, cac bien dgng sau sic d Ddng Au va thQe thi "tQ mdi" cac van de qud'c te) cho phep 62 cac hge gia van dung cai nhin mdi ddi vdi sd lieu hge thdi ky "Chie'n tranh lanh" SQ khac biet giQa sd lieu hoc Lien Xd va phUdng Tay trUde het gin vdi khdi lUdng cac cdng trinh nghien cQu Theo nha sd hge Trubarian A 0, sQ khae biet cdn tdn tai d chd; sd lieu hge Xd vie't eho tdi nhiing nam 90 the ky XX p h i n ldn mang tinh "mdndnit" (ddn nha't), "thd'ng nha't" cac quan diem, bgc thuyet va sQ danh gia (9) Cae nha sd bgc Nga ed dieu kien nghien cdu mgt linh vQc quan trgng khae thuge thdi ky "chien tranh lanh" - dd la ddi tQ cua cac lanh tu Xd viet, trinh hge van, phong each sd'ng cung nhU cae mdi quan he eua hg Mdt va'n de ly thu khac la nghien cdu vai trd cua cac Tong BI thU Ban Chap hanh Trung Udng Dang Cdng san Lien Xd qua trinh thdng qua cae quye't dinh cua hg (dac biet la quye't dinh dua quan vao Tiep Khac va Afganixtan) Thdi gian g i n day, cac nha sd hge tap trung sU chu y vao viec nghien cdu eae nhan td'ehau A, chau Phi va chau My "Chien tranh lanh" Cd sQ khdi sic nghien cdu cugc chien tranh Trieu Tien Da cdng bd' nhieu tQ lieu, dd cd cae tU lieu eua eae trung tam iQu trQ Nga Tai My da cdng bd' cac bien ban nhieu cugc hdi dam cua Stalin vdi Kim Nhat Thanh va Mao Traeh Ddng Mdt sd' nha sQ hge danh sQ chu y eho cugc chie'n tranh Viet Nam Cd the ke den cud'n saeh ehuyen khao cua nha sd hge Lien Xd I Gaiduk xua't ban d My nhan de The Soviet Union and Vietnam War (Chicago, 1996) va cdng trinh cua tac gia tre ngQdi Thuy Dien M Olsen vdi tUa de Solidarity and National Revolution and the Vietnamese Communists, 1954-1960 (Osld, 1996) Rghien cihi Lich sit s6' 11.2009 Nam 2005, cac bgc gia Nga eho mat hai cud'n saeh ehuyen khao ve de tai "chien tranh lanh" tren cd sd cac ngudn tQ lieu mdi dUde edng bd' Dd la cud'n Kopen e ozne eoHnbi ("Trieu Tien khdi Ida chien tranh") vdi mdt each nhin mdi ve cugc chien tranh b Trieu Tien (1950-1953) cua cac tac gia Xergey Lavrenov (Ceprefi JlaBpeHoe) va Vitaly Bogdanov (BnTajmii BorflaHOs) Cud'n thd hai mang tUa de CoeemcKuii Coios e jioKcuibHbix eouHOX u KOHjiuKmox (Lien Xd cac cugc chien tranh va xung dot khu vUe) cua I M Popov (H M IlonoB) va Xergey Lavrenov (Ceprefi JlaepeHOB) Cac tac gia di sau nghien cdu tat ea cac cugc khung hoang xay thdi hau chien d chau Au, chau A, chau Phi va My La tinh Nam 2006 xua't hien edng trinh cua Tudng D T lazov (JX T .Sfaoe) (10) nhan de KapudcKuu Kpusuc: copoK nem cnycmn (Cugc khung hoang Caribe; 40 nam nhin lai) Tac gia la nhan ehdng sd'ng cua sQ kien tren nen cud'n saeh thQe sQ gay dUde sQ ehu y ddi vdi dgc gia Ngay nhin ve qua khd va danh gia ngudn gd'e cung nhQ ke't thdc cua "Chie'n tranh lanh", cd the di den ke't luan la: nen tang chinh saeh cua ca hai khdi da tiem an tU tudng va cac bien phap ddi dau Tinh trang tUdng tU diin ca sU lieu hge eua hai nUde Cae nha sd hge Lien Xd/Nga va My cang tim kie'm nhQng phUdng hudng mdi cho viec nghien cdu lich sii "Chie'n tranh lanh" Va'n de chu yeu la vUdt qua dUde van phong va phUdng phap luan ddi dau sd lieu hge nham giai phdng khdi cac khudn giao dieu cu ky, cung ehung sdc dung lai lich sd quan he qud'c te thdi ky sau chien tranh, tim nhQng nguyen nhan va hanh dgng cud'n the gidi vao tinh trang "Chie'n tranh lanh" niot 50 danh gia ciia gidi sii^ hoc Viec nghien cQu ve "Chie'n tranh lanh" van dang tiep dien va cdn gay nhieu bat ngd vdi nhQng tU lieu bi mat dang din din dUde edng bd' va lich sd cude "Chie'n tranh lanh" van cdn nhieu bi an cin dUde khai thac, nghien cdu II DANH GIA CUA GI61 SIJ" HOC VE MOT SO VAN DE CON GAY TRANH CAI XUNG QUANH CUOC "CHIEN TRANH LANH' Ve mdc khai ddu cua "Chien tranh lanh" ton tgi nhieu y kie'n khdc Tai phUdng Tay phd bien rdng rai quan diem cho ring ehinh cac boat ddng cua Lien Xd nam 1945 n h i m "Xd vie't hda" eae eae qud'c gia Ddng Au da dat cd sd eho sU md diu cua "chien tranh lanh", dUa tren eae bing ehdng nhU: sU cd mat cua quan ddi Xd viet tai cac nUdc cdng them cac am mUu "pha hoai" cac ehe dan ehu d eae nude Tay Au vdi sQ trd giup cua cac Dang Cdng san cac nUde sd tai Hanh dgng eua My va cac cUdng qud'c phUdng Tay khae sau chien tranh la bat huge, la sU tra dua nhim muc dich chd'ng lai cac dgng thai tren day Tieu bieu cho quan diem la George F Kennan (11) - mdt nha ngoai giao ndi tieng cua My, Dai sQ My tai Lien Xd tQ 1954 de'n 1963, nha phan tich, nha Xd vie't hoc, tac gia cua nhieu cdng trinh ve chinh saeh ddi ngoai va Hch sd ngoai giao Hoa Ky, dd phai ke de'n cud'n Memoirs 19251950 (Boston and Toronto; Little, Brown and Company, 1967) Nam 2002, cud'n hdi ky dudc xua't ban bing tieng Nga vdi tUa de JIunnoMamim Bmopoii Mupoeou eoimbi CCCP BJiajOMu ciMepuKaHCKozo nocjia e MoKopdoica KemiaHa/ilep c aHrn Jl.A HropeecKoro, VD.Jl Hynpoea - M.: 3A0 UeHxpnojiHrpae}), 2002 - 479 c (Ngoai giao thdi Chie'n tranh the gidi thd Hai dudi m i t 63 eua Dai sd Hoa Ky tai Lien Xd G Kennan) (12) Phan bac lai y kie'n tren, mdt hge gia Nga, cUu quan chdc eao ca'p cua Bd Ngoai giao Lien Xd, G M Kornienco (13) cho ring: ne'u xua't phat tQ quan diem phUdng Tay cho r i n g "Chien tranh lanh" bat diu tU viec Lien Xd sU dung sU cd mat cua eae lUe lUdng vu trang Xd viet tai eae qud'c gia Ddng Au n h i m 'Xd vie't hda" cae nUde nay, thi cd nghla r i n g chinh cae qud'c gia phUdng Tay cd ldi trcng viec cho phep quan ddi Xd viet hien dien d day NhUng, theo dng, phia Lien Xd eung sai lim viec tie'n xa hdn nhQng gi ma cae nQde phUdng Tay cho phep mdt mdc tUdng ddi va cac bien phap nhim tuyen truyen anh hudng cua Lien Xd d khu vUc Ddng Au (14) Ve traeh nhiem de xay "Chie'n tranh lanh", G M Kornienco nhan dinh ring; "Ne'u nhu xuat phdt tU quan diem tren cUa gidi sd hoc phUdng Tdy, theo cdch nhin nhdn khach quan, thi trdch nhiem cua cdc nUdc phUcfng Tdy viec de xdy "chie'n tranh lanh", ne'u khdng Id todn bg thi ciing phdi chiu trdch nhiem mgt nda" (15) Hang loat cac nha nghien cdu phUdng Tay cho r i n g phat sung d i u tien md man "Chien tranh lanh" chinh la viec My nem thd nghiem cac qua bom nguyen tU chd'ng Nhat Ban nhu mdt hanh ddng khdng cin thie't ve mat quan sU ma chi mudn ehdng td cho phia Xd vie't tha'y sdc manh quan sU ap dao eua minh va nhu mdt sU tuyen bd' ve vai trd quye't dinh eua My tren the gidi sau Chien tranh the gidi thd Hai Mgt sd dd, tae gia ngUdi Anh Peter Calvoeoressi (tac gia hai tap saeh World Politics 1945-2000, dUdc dich sang tieng Nga la Mupoeaa no.iumuKO 1945-2000 a 2-x KHurax M 2003 (Chinh tri the gidi 1945- 64 2000) khang dinh; "Thdng 8-1945, ngUdi My nem hai qud bom nguyen td xudng Hirdsima vd Nagasaki budc Nhdt Bdn nhanh ehdng ddu hdng vd nhU vay chien thdng cua ngUdi My da lam cho vai trd vd vi tri cua nUdc Nga viec tham gia vdo tien trinh binh dn khu viic Vien Ddng sau chie'n tranh chi mang tinh chdt tUdng trUng" (16) P Blekett - mdt ehuyen gia ndi tieng cua Anh ve nang lUdng nguyen td vie't nam 1949; "Viec nem hai qud bom nguyen tii khdng chi Id sii kien cud'i ciing ciia Chie'n tranh the gidi thd Hai md cdn Id chie'n dich ldn ddu tien cHa cugc "Chie'n tranh lanh" ve ngogi giao vdi nUdcNga" (17) Tuy nhien, p h i n ddng cae nha nghien cdu tren the gidi cho r i n g sU b i t d i u cua cude chie'n tranh dac biet can ap dung cho thdi gian sau ket thuc Chien tranh the gidi thd Hai, ma md'c md man la bai phat bieu eua Churchid (18) tai Dai hge Westminster d Fulton, Missouri (My) 5-3-1946 Trong bai phat bieu "Nguon tie'p sdc cho Hda binh", Churchill de cap den cai ggi la "hiem hga" cua chu nghia cdng san b chau Au, trudc bet la tQ Lien Xd Bai phat bieu cd doan vie't; "Td Szczecin d Baltic cho den Trieste d Adriatic mgt "bdc mdn sdt" da chgy dgc theo Luc dia Sau bdc mdn dd Id tdt cd nhdng thu dd cda nhdng qud'c gia cd Trung vd Ddng Au Warszawa, Berlin, Praha, Wien, Budapest, Beograd, Bucharest vd Sofia; td't cd nhiing thdnh phd'ndi tieng ndy ciing ddn cU sdng quanh dang ndm thd md tdi phdi ggi la qud cdu Lien Xd, vd tdt cd, bdng cdch ndy hay cdch khdc, deu phdi le thudc khdng chi vdo dnh hudng cda Lien Xd md cdn vdo sU dieu khien chat che vd cd ngdy cdng tdng len td Moskva" (19) Rghien ciiru Ljch sii', so 11.2009 Churchill keu ggi cac nUdc de qud'c tie'n hanh eugc chie'n tranh tren cae Hnh vUe kinh te, chinh tri, quan sif chd'ng lai "hiem hga cgng san" tQ Lien Xd va cac nUdc dan chu Ddng Au Bai phat bieu eua Churchill dUde coi la tin hieu md dau ciia cugc "chie'n tranh lanh" diin giQa khdi xa hgi chu nghia va tU ban ehu nghia tren the gidi hdn thap nien (1946-1989) Cung tQ day, hinh anh "BQc man sat" dQdc sd dung nhQ mgt bieu tUdng chi sQ each biet giQa he tu tQdng xa hgi chii nghia va tQ ban chu nghia Cac nha sd hoc Lien Xd trUde day thudng nghieng ve quan diem va huge tgi My va cac nUdc phUdng Tay la ngUdi cham ngdi nd cho "Chien tranh lanh" Ve nguon gdc hodc nguyen nhdn ddn tdi "Chie'n tranh lanh" Gidi nghien cQu cac nUdc khdng ngifng tranh luan ve va'n de ngudn gd'e hay nguyen nhan d i n den "Chien tranh lanh" Cho tdi nam 1991, cae edng trinh viet ve "Chien tranh lanh" h i u nhu deu dUa tren cac ngudn tu lieu cua My, nhQng nam cudi la eua Anh va cae nude phUdng Tay Tu lieu cua phUdng Tay ve nguyen nhan d i n de'n "Chien tranh lanh" theo truyen thd'ng, deu hudng sU chu y dac biet den y nghia ca nhan cua Stalin va he thd'ng Nha nUde dng tao dung len (George F Kennan, John Lewis Gaddis, Taubman William ) Mdt so' hge gia phUdng Tay nhan dinh rang; sau Chie'n tranh the gidi thd Hai, phin ddng ngUdi My cho rang Lien Xd dang ed ging dua chau Au va ca the gidi vao quy dao cua ehu nghia edng san va Lien Xd ed du kha nang lam dUde viec NgUde lai, ve phan minh, Lien Xd cQng cho rang the gidi phUdng Tay vdi nhQng tu tudng va gia tri cua xa hgi tu ban ehu nghia se coi Lien Xd la muc tieu eIn phai loai bd cQng nhu cin ngan ehan anh hudng cua chii nghia cgng san OTpt 50 danh gia ciia gioi sir h o c 65 Theo P e t e r Calvoeoressi, sau chie'n t r a n h cac eudng qud'c phUdng Tay tiem a n sU thieu tin t u d n g va t h u dich ddi vdi Lien Xd cung n h u h e thd'ng cung h e tU tUdng cua nude nay, nhUng My k h d n g d i n b ta'n edng va eung k h d n g ehu d i n h thie't lap sQ thd'ng tri cua m i n h d T r u n g va Ddng Au Mdi phia deu vu t r a n g n h i m g i a n h chie'n t h i n g chie'n t r a n h , n h u hg nghi, phia ben gay nen, nhUng thUe r a k h d n g phia nao quyet d i n h tien h a n h chien t r a n h (20) phUcfng Tdy vd phUctng Ddng thdi ky "Chie'n tranh Ignh" (24) J o h n Lewis G a d d i s (21), n h a sd hge My, mgt ehuyen gia ndi tieng ve lich sd "chie'n t r a n h lanh" cho r a n g ; ca p h i a My cung nhQ phia Lien Xd deu k h d n g mud'n cd eugc "Chien t r a n h lanh", cdn t r e n thQe te thi chi ddn gian la Lien Xd va My deu q u a n t a m den a n n i n h cua m i n h n h u n g " t h a m hga la d chd hg d a t dUde m u c dieh eua minh mdt t r a t tu ddn le t h a y ehe viec eung n h a u h a n h ddng" (22) Ndi mdt each khac, theo Gaddis, da den luc c i n k h e p lai cau hdi ve ngudn gd'e cugc "Chie'n t r a n h lanh" bdi vi tat ca chung ta ddn gian la "khdng cd ldi de trd t h a n h t h u pham" T r e n thQe te, n g a y s a u chie'n t r a n h ket thuc, cac cUdng qud'c lap tUc thi h a n h dudng ldi ddi d a u b a n g vu IQC, SU d u n g nd viec giai quyet cac v a n de sau chien t r a n h Vdi My va cae ddng minh eua hg, mdt cac bien p h a p n e u t r e n la vien trd kinh te va vu n g u y e n tU; vdi Lien Xd - q u a n ddi h u n g h a u d c h a u Au va vung Vien Ddng sau chie'n t h a n g p h a t xit Ddc va q u a n phiet N h a t NgUdi My b i n g mgi each tri cdc che d a n g tdn tai d Ddng Au, can trd eae bie'n ddi ve each m a n g va xa hgi Trong cud'n Now We Know: Rethinking Cold War History N.Y., 1997, J L Gaddis nhieu l i n ndi ve t r a e h n h i e m cua Lien Xd va My viec gieo rac va md rdng eugc "Chien t r a n h lanh" Tuy vay, t r a ldi cau hdi; p h a i chiu t r a e h n h i e m chinh eho nhQng h a n h ddng t r e n thi tac gia k h d n g ehi mdt l i n ndi t h i n g - dd la Lien Xd (23) Cac n h a n g h i e n cdu Nga cd ly n h a n dinh rang: "Gid'ng nhU gidi lanh dgo Lien Xd, chinh quyen My sud't thdi ky "chie'n tranh lanh" coi vd hie nhU mdt cdng cu chii ye'u de gidi quye't td't cd cdc van de qud'c te TU dd phdt sinh nhiing van de nguy hiem cho thd gidi di kem vdi cdc cugc khung hodng vd ddi ddu nghiem trgng giUa Ca h a i p h i a (Lien Xd va My) nhieu n a m tien h a n h viec tim kie'm "thu p h a m " cua cude ddi d a u s a u Chie'n t r a n h (the gidi t h u Hai) Cudi eung, tai n h i e u cugc hdi thao, t r a n h l u a n t r o n g gidi sQ hge My da dQa r a ket l u a n ve trdch nhiem ngang t r o n g eugc ddi d i u cua "Chien t r a n h lanh" nhQ la ke't qua cua q u a n diem qua khac nghiet tQ ea h a i p h i a (25) Phia Lien Xd eung mud'n tri va md rgng a n h h u d n g cua m i n h n h i m bao tdn va p h a t trien cac t h a n h qua each mang Tien de cua "Chie'n t r a n h lanh" chUa dUng cac m a u t h u a n giQa cae nQde t h a m gia khdi ddng m i n h chd'ng p h a t xit Cac m a u t h u a n p h a t sinh t h u d n g lien q u a n den t r a t tU t h e gidi sau chien t r a n h Vi bdn chdt cua "chien tranh lanh" Cac n h a nghien cQu, trUdc h e t la cac n h a sQ bgc va cac n h a ngoai giao t d n g dUa nhQng y kie'n k h a c n h a u ve b a n chat cua "Chien t r a n h lanh": day la chu nghia ddi k h a n g , cugc x u n g dot cQc ky nghiem trgng, h e thd'ng q u a n h e ddi d i u (thu dieh) giQa h a i sieu cQdng k h d n g lien q u a n den da'u t r a n h vu t r a n g ; ddi d i u giQa r a n h gidi hda 66 binh va chie'n tranh; tdng hdp cac cugc khung hoang dat the gidi trQdc hiem hga chie'n tranh hat nhan Da so eae bgc gia tren the gidi nhan dinh; "Chie'n tranh lanh" la cugc ddi dau giQa cac nQde xa hgi ehu nghla ddng d i u la Lien Xd va My cung cdc nQde ddng minh cua minh Mdt sd khae thi eho rang "Chie'n tranh lanh" la mgt dQdng Idi ehinh tri ma Chinh phu eae nQde phQdng Tay thi hanh quan he vdi Lien Xd va cac ddng minh cua hg - nhQng nQde di theo dQdng phat trien xa hdi chu nghia, dUde thUe thi sau Chie'n tranh the gidi thd Hai ket thue ThUe te da ehdng minh; "Chien tranh lanh" la mdt hien tUdng mdi ve chat, khac han vdi cae cugc chie'n tranh ed dien Dac diem ndi bat cua "Chien tranh lanh" la sQ bi mat (giau mat) eua cac chien dich khdng dung vu lUc "Chie'n tranh lanh", bao gdm: ehinh tri-ngoai giao, kinh te, cdng nghe, tu tudng-tam ly, thdng tin, tinh bao Vi du; nhQng nam 80 eua the ky XX, chi rieng cam van kinh te b i n g each gia nang lUdng va nhien lieu, ngQng eung cap theo hdp ddng cac nguyen vat lieu, may mdc, ddng cda thi trUdng ddi vdi hang boa Lien Xd , phUdng Tay da gay thiet hai cho Lien Xd khoang 1,2 ty dd la My, cd nghia thiet hai hdn l i n so vdi tdn that eua Lien Xd cugc chien tranh Ve qud'c (19411945) (26) Trong "Chie'n tranh lanh", phia My thdc day chay dua vu trang, dac biet la Hnh vifc hat nhan; lap cac khdi quan sU, he thd'ng cac can cd quan sU xung quanh Lien Xd; tie'n hanh cdc mUu dd de dga b i n g vu iQc; gay hdng loat cac cugc xung dot quan sU va cac cude chie'n tranh Rghien cmi Lich sJr so 11.2009 cue bd ma ddng sau nd cd sU tham gia cua b l u he't cac ddi thu chinh Lien Xd cung phai dd'c toan bg sdc lUc nham ehay dua vdi My tren cac Hnh vQc khac (kinh te, quan sU ), giup dd va ung hg cae nUde, cac phong trao each mang d cac chau luc nham tri anh hudng va ddi dau vdi My Ngudn tin tQ Nga thd'ng ke rang; thdi ky "Chie'n tranh lanh", hang thang Lien Xd phdng tQ 5-6 thie't hi bay vao vu tru, hang nam Lien Xd cho thd nghiem khoang 15-20 qua bom nguyen td va bom khinh (bom H) De'n nam 1989, chi phi cho qud'c phdng cua Lien Xd chiem tdi 51,9% tdng san iQdng kinh te qud'c dan hoae 73,1% tdng thu nhap qud'c dan (27) Viec xdc dinh mdc thai gian eua "Chie'n tranh lanh" eung khd khan, phde tap hdn so vdi cac cugc chien tranh trQdc day Mgt so' nha nghien cdu danh ddng "Chie'n tranh lanh" vdi cugc ddi d i u giQa hai he thd'ng xa hgi, b i t d i u tQ nam 1917 va ke't thue vao nam 1991 - cung vdi sQ tan cua Lien bang Xd viet NhQng ngQdi khac lai cho rang "Chien tranh lanh" md man sau ke't thuc Chie'n tranh the gidi thd Hai va diem cudi cua nd la "sU that bai eua chii nghia cgng san" Nhin chung, tren the gidi phd bie'n cac quan diem cho rang: Md'c khdi d i u cua "chie'n tranh lanh" la mgt cac nam 1917, 1945, 1946, 1947, niia dau hoae nda sau thap nien 40 thekyXX; Md'c ke't thuc "Chien tranh lanh" 1989, 1990, 1991, cudi thap nien 80 - diu thap nien 90 the ky XX Da sd' cac nha sii hoc va qud'c te hge tren the gidi ndi chung va d Nga ndi rieng deu Cffot 50 danh gia ciia gioi sCi hoc 67 nha't tri la'y nhQng nam giQa thap nien 40 the ky XX lam md'c md d i u chinh thUc va lan sdng cac bien ddi chinh tri tai cac nQde Ddng Au mua thu nam 1989 lam ranh gidi giQa "Chien tranh lanh" va giai doan quan he qud'c te hien thdi, ma dac trUng ndi bat nhat la sU pha bd "bdc tUdng Berlin", ma "nhdn ddn Lien Xd cdng nhU phdn ldn cdc qud'c gia thudc "cdng ddng xd hdi chu nghla" trUdc ddy dd td bd he thdng Nhd niidc ddc ddng vd kehogch hda nen kinh te, nghieng ve nen ddn chu thi trUdng tdc Id bdo hieu sU chdm ddt ve cd bdn sU ddi ddu cda cdc he thd'ng chinh tri-xd hgi ddi khdng" (28) Tdng hdp cae y kie'n eua da so' cac nha nghien cdu tren the gidi, A Trerniaiev (29) cd ly cho ring "cac md'c thdi gian cd y nghla tUdng trUng nha't cho lich sU "Chie'n tranh lanh" chinh la "Fulton" va "Malta", 1946-1989" (30) Ve ket thUc cua "Chien tranh lanh" Nam 1985, Ban lanh dao mdi cua Lien Xd M Gorbachev ddng d i u len nam quyen Nha nUde Xd vie't de nhiem vu dat dUdc budc ngoat khdi "Chie'n tranh lanh", ehuyen td cang thang tren trQdng qud'c te sang hoa diu va hdp tae Ngay 152-1989, Lien Xd da rut he't toan bd cac quan nhan Xd vie't khdi lanh thd Afghanistan va bat d i u rut quan khdi cae nude ddng minh cua minh d Ddng Au Thang 5-1989 khdi Warszawa keu ggi NATO cung giai tan Thang 11-1989, bdc tiidng Berlin dQdc khai thdng va sau dd chinh thQe dQdc dd bd vao 13-6-1990 Quan he Xd - My thQe sQ ehuyen tQ "ddi dau" sang "ddi thoai" Ngay 2-12-1989, eugc gap khdng chinh thdc giQa Tong bi thu Gorbachev va Tdng thd'ng George H W Bush tai Malta (Dia Trung Hai), hai ben da chinh thQe tuyen bd' cha'm ddt cude "Chie'n tranh lanh" Tai Nga thQdng phd bie'n luan diem eho r i n g "Chie'n tranh lanh" ke't thue khdng ed ngudi thang, ke thua Tuy vay, phUdng Tay dUa danh gid khae ban: hg thudng ndi va hanh ddng nhU minh la ngUdi chien thang nha't J L Gaddis cho rang Lien Xd da tha't bai, mac du sd hQu mdt sdc manh quan sQ hau Cd't loi eua van de nam kinh te, he tQ tQdng, dao ddc SQ khae biet mang tinh nguyen tic quan diem cua My va Lien Xd "Cliie'n tranh lanh", theo J L Gaddis the hien d chd My xuat phat tQ chu nghla dan chu hien thQe, cdn Lien Xd - chu nghla rdmantic quyen uy (ddc doan) (31) Nhieu hge gia tren the gidi nha'n manh de'n sU ba't ngd cua viec ket thuc "Chien tranh lanh" Ngay den cac chinh khach phUdng Tay cung phai thUa nhan ring chie'n thing de'n vdi hg qua ddi bat ngd va hg khdng the tin rang da dat dUde dieu dd mdt each nhanh ehdng de'n nhu vay (32) Ngay 28-1-1992, tdng thdng My G.Jufk tuyen bd'; "Nhd Trdi, nUdc My dd chien thdng cugc "chie'n tranh lanh" Song cdng bang hdn ca phai ke den danh gia cua George F Kennan; "Khdng "chie'n thdng" "Chie'n tranh Ignh" Ddy Id cugc ddi ddu chinh tri ddi lau vd ddt gid, cd hai phia gdy bdi nhdng ddnh gid phi thiic te vd cUdng dieu ve cdc dung y vd sdc mgnh ciia cdc lUc lugng ddi lap nhau" (33) Thang 6-2009, cude hgp bao tai Quy tQ thien Moskva eua minh, cQu Tdng thd'ng Lien Xd Gorbachev da phe phan gay git nhQng ngUdi cho rang phUdng Tay da thing trdng cugc "Chie'n tranh lanh", thang Lien Xd, thay vi xem xet sU ket thdc ddi dau giQa phQdng Tay va phQdng Ddng nhu 68 mdt quye't dinh ma hai ben eung dUa vi ldi Ich chung (34) Tuy nhien, mdt sd' ngUdi Nga cung cho rang; phUdng Tay da chie'n t h i n g cude "Chien tranh lanh", cdn Lien Xd thi tU nguyen thua Gid day khdi Hiep Qde Warszawa va Hgi ddng tUdng trd kinh te da giai the, 'TDUC man sit" bi gd bd va nUdc Ddc da thd'ng nhat, sieu cQdng (Lien Xd) bi pha buy va ehu nghla cgng san bi ca'm doan thi nQde Nga the ky XXI cd the tin chae r i n g khdng cd he tQ tudng nao, ma ehi ed cae quyen ldi dia ehinh tri ngU tri tU chinh tri eua phUdng Tay (35) Hg cay dang nhan mgt sU that - ke't qua nhat cua "Chien tranh lanh" "ed the nhin tha'y b i n g mat thUdng" la Lien bang Xd vie't tan ra, dieu ma trum phat xit Hitler cung cd may quan sU manh khdng the dat difdc ehinh phuc ca chau Au vao nam 1941, each day dung 50 nam Ket thue ky nguyen vi dai cua mgt "sieu cudng" (36) Van de ve sU ket thuc eua "Chie'n tranh lanh" van cdn la dieu gay tranh cai Nhieu ngUdi cho ring, "Chien tranh lanh" da hoan toan ket thuc, khdng bao gid quay trd lai va va'n de chinh hien la khic phuc den cung nhung hau qua eua nd de lai Sd' khac lai nhan dinh, ring "Chie'n tranh lanh" chUa Rghien curu Lich sJr 50 11.2009 ke't thuc ma ehuyen sang hinh thai khac Cac chinh tri gia phUdng Tay edng nhan rang; chien t h i n g cua hg trude Lien Xd chi la nha't thdi chd chQa phai t h i n g Idi cudi eung Hg khdng dam chic rang nQde Nga se khdng quay trd lai eon dQdng phat trien xa hdi chu nghia Ngoai ra, sU hien dien va cung cd cua nhdm eae qud'c gia xa hgi chu nghia cdn lai cung lam cho phQdng Tay bat an (37) Tdm lai, den van chUa cd nhQng cau tra ldi chinh thdc va xac thifc eho cae eau hdi: tai xua't hien va "Chie'n tranh lanh" dien nhU the nao? Ai va d mdc nao phai chiu traeh nhiem de xay "Chien tranh lanh"? Nd da ket thuc thUc sU hay van edn tie'p dien? Du thi "Chien tranh lanh" van cdn la hien tUdng ehUa dUdc nghien cdu diy du Nhieu khia canh cua nd thuoc ve cae pham tru triet bgc, ehmh tri bgc, xa hdi hge, chinh tri, kinh te, tam ly, thdng tin hge va nhQng bg mdn khoa bgc xa hgi khac, dd ed ly luan quan sQ Chi cd dQa tren cd sd nghien cdu tdng the cac bg mdn mdi cd the dQa mgt hge thuyet khoa hge hoan chinh ve "Chie'n tranh lanh" - tien de can ban de giai quye't nhQng va'n de cap thiet n h i m bao dam an ninh va hda binh, vUdt qua cac eugc chie'n tranh "ndng" va "lanh" tren the gidi CHU THJCH (1) Cum tU "Chie'n tranh lanh" Barueh Benard Mannes (1870-1965) - tac gia eua ke hoach nguyen td lUc ciia My d Lien Hdp Quo'c dat vdi y nghia: "Chie'n tranh lanh" la cuoc "chie'n tranh khong no sUng, khong mau" nhUng 'luon luon d tinh trang chie'n tranh" nham "ngan ehan" roi "tieu diet" Lien X6 Barueh Benard Mannes la nha hoat dong chinh tri va nha nu6e, ehuyen gia tai ehinh co'van kinh te khong chinh thUc cua nhieu ddi tong tho'ng My, co vai tro quan trong deii song kinh te va ngoai giao My niia d^u the ky XX, tac gia cuo'n My Own Story (1957) (2) Vi du: Herring George Aid to Russia, 19411946: Strategy, Diplomacy, the Origins of the Cold War N.Y., 1973; Kennan Goerge F Russia and the West Under Lenin and Stalin Boston 1961' niot 50 danh gia ciia giai 51^ hoc Larson Thomat B Soviet-American 1978; Morris Communism Benard and American 69 Rivalry S N.Y., International Policy Atherton Press, N.Y., 1966; T a u b m a n William StalinOs American Policy From Entente to Detente to Cold War N.Y., 1982; Pauline Tompkins Relations in H.H.5lK0BJieB the Far "HPy American-Russian East npoTHB N.Y., CCCP" (7) Zybok V., Plesakov C Inside the Cold War: From Stalin to Khruschev 1996; Gaiduk I The Soviet Kremlin' Cambridge, Union and Vietnam War Chicago, 1996 (8) Vi dp cac cuon 3HUHKAoneAH4ecKHH cAOBapb M., saeh: CoBexcKHH 1980 C 1469; 1949 XlHnAOMaxHMecKHfi CAOBapb M., 1986, T C 537, "Mojioflas CoBCTCKaii BOCHHaii 3HUHKA0neAiia M., 1980 T.8 C TBapflHa" MocKBa.1983; 385,, (3) Dude t h e h i e n t r o n g cac cong t r i n h nhU: (9) HySapbSH A, FlpoHcxoiKAeHHe "XOAOAHOH "XoJioflHaa BOHna" HoBbie noflxo.ziLr, HOBtie AOKyMeHTbi BofiHbi" B HcxopHorpa(J)HH BocxoKa H 3anaAa HoBas H M., 1998; KHCCiiHWKep F JXannoMajiin HOBeftniaH HcxopRS, 1991 X? C, 63 M., 1997; HjiiHHCKHii H «Ky.nbType)) eoidHbi H «KyjibType» MHpa M., 1999 HAp (10) D.T lazov tUng la Bo trUcfng Bo Quoc phong cuol cung ciia Lien Xo Ong da kinh qua (4) CM "Xojiofliiaq BOHHa", HoBtie noaxojbi, HOBBIC khoi lUa ciia cuoc chie'n t r a n h Ve quo'c vi dai (1941- flOKyMCHTbi M.: 1995; OHJIHTOB A M "Xojioana;i 1945), chi huy Trung doan Cu Ba thdi gian BoilHa": ncTopnorpa({)HMecKne /iHCKyccHH Ha Sanaae M.: xay cuoc k h u n g hoang Caribe, phuc vu he't minh 1991; d ta't ca cae ehUe vu dUde giao HySapbHH A O O npoHcxo)KAeHHn "XOHOHHOM BoiiHbi" B HCTopnorpatliHH BocTOKa H Sanaaa // HoBaa H HOBefimaa HCTopim 1991 Xs 3; CCMHH KD C , Py6aH H C ynacTMe CCCP e KopefiCKoii BOrtiie // Bonpocbi HCTopHH 1994 Wi! 11; CoBCTCKaa Bueuifoifl no^THTiiKa e roAbi "xo.noAiioii BOHIIU" (1945-1985): HOBOC npoHTCHHe n o a peA Jl H, HoKHHCKOro M.: 1995; CCCP n "xo.noAiia>! BOHna", CynepAep)KaBb[ M.: XX 1995; CrapOAySoe BCKa B U CxpaTcrHMecKoe npoTHBoSopCTBO M 0 ; BevtriH JXIK., KoHApameB C , Mepc])!! 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XX B // Cou-ryMaHHTap co3HaHHJi 2002 JVa C 221 ... ve "chien tranh lanh" eua eae hge gia ngUdi Nga (7) Trong sud't may thap nien dien "chie'n tranh lanh", giQa phUdng Tay va phUdng Ddng kh6ng ngQng tranh cai ve cac van de: "chie'n tranh lanh"... tranh lanh" van cdn nhieu bi an cin dUde khai thac, nghien cdu II DANH GIA CUA GI61 SIJ" HOC VE MOT SO VAN DE CON GAY TRANH CAI XUNG QUANH CUOC "CHIEN TRANH LANH' Ve mdc khai ddu cua "Chien tranh. .. cho "Chien tranh lanh" Ve nguon gdc hodc nguyen nhdn ddn tdi "Chie'n tranh lanh" Gidi nghien cQu cac nUdc khdng ngifng tranh luan ve va'n de ngudn gd'e hay nguyen nhan d i n den "Chien tranh lanh"
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