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Theo kết quả điều tra quốc gia gần đây, tổng tỷ suất sinh của vùng Đông Nam Bộ đã giảm khá sâu dưới mức sinh thay thế. Dựa trên số liệu và Điều tra dân số và nhà ở giữa kỳ năm 2014 và khung phân tích mức sinh thấp của Bongraarts (2001), các phân tích cho thấy, tỷ lệ phụ nữ chưa kết hôn tăng cao chính là nguyên nhân chủ yếu dẫn đến tổng tỷ suất sinh thấp ở vùng Đông Nam Bộ.
42 Xd hpi hpc, sd I (137), 2017 NHCTNG YEU TO QUYET DINH TINH TRANG MUC SINH THAP T^I VUNG DONG NAM B O VA GQI MC) CHO CHINH SACH DAN SO CJ VIET NAM NGUYEN DCC VINH' Tdm tdt: Theo kit qud dieu tra quoc gia gdn ddy, long ty sudt sinh ciia vimg Dong Nam Bp dd gidm khd sdu dudi miic sinh thay Ihe Dua tren so liiu vd Dieu Ira ddn sd va nhd d gida itp ndm 2014 vd khung phdn tich mic sinh thdp cua Bongaarts (2001), cdc phdn tich cho thdy, ty li phu nii chira kit hon tang cao chinh Id nguyen nhdn chu yeu ddn din long ty sudt sinh thdp a viing Dong Nam Bp Viic gidm long ty sudt sinh xuong dudi muc thay the Id hijn lupng khd phd biin khixd h^iphdt triin vd hijn dpi hoa den muc dp nhdt dinh, cd hau hit cdc gia dinh diu vdn mong mudn co Kit qud ndy gpi y viic xem xet ndi long vd da dgng hoa chinh sdch hgn chi sinh de hiin cho phii hpp voi ddc diem kinh te, xd hpi vd bien dpng nhdn khdu hpc, chudn bi chinh sdch khuyen sinh hap ly, chu trpng Iri chudn muc quy mo gia dinh Tdr khod: mite sinh, miic sinh thip, yeu td quyet djiih mire sinh, Ddng Nam Bg Boi cdnh Qua ba thdp ky cua qud Irinh Doi mdi, Vi^t Nam da dat dugc nhieu thdnh ti;u ding ghi nhan s\r nghigp phdt tridn kinh t6 - xi hgi ddt nude Ciing giai do^n nay, Vi?t Nam trdi qua thdi ky qud dd ddn s6 vdi nhimg thay doi Idn ve mirc sinh, miic chit, di cu Cling nhu ve quy md va phin bd ddn sd Nhung bien dgng nhan khau hgc nhu vay ludn c6 s\r tuong ho kha chdt chS vdi qud trinh phit triin kmh ih xd hdi d moi quoc gia Do dd, vi?c tdn dyng toi da tiem ning dan sd ciing nhu han che, iing phd vdi nhihig tic dgng khdng thuan Igi ciia bien dgng nhdn khau hgc la didu rit quan trgng xay d\mg chinh sdch vi chien luge phdt tri^n ciia Vi$t Nam giai doan hi^n Miic sinh la mgt nhung ySu to nhdn khdu hgc quan trgng nhat quyit djnh quy md, CO cau ciia mdt ddn sd hi?n l^i vd tucmg lai Miic sinh cao so vdi miic chet thudng dan d6n tdng quy md ddn so, tdc ddng tiSu c\rc den mdi trudng sinh thdi vd cdc myc lieu phat trien kinh te xd hgi Ngugc Iai, niu miic sinh qud thdp sg dan din nguy co gia hda dan so nhanh, thieu hgt I\ic lugng lao dgng, gia ting nhihig van de an sinh xa hdi bat cap, Dieu ndy cang nghiSm trgng neu xay voi nhihig din so cdn dang qud Vifn Xa hpi hpc, Viin Hdn Idm Khoa hpc Xd hpi VijI Nam Nguyen Due Vinh 43 trinh phat trien, ndng suat lao dgng chua cao Chinh vi vay hiu het cic quoc gia tren the gidi deu cd kha nhiiu n5 lire vi$c xdy dyng ehinh sich nhdm diiu chinh hoac thich ling vdi mtie sinh Theo bao cdo ciia Lien hgp quoc vao ndm 2013, tdng sd gdn 200 qudc gia Ihdnh vien thi cd 27% dp dgng chinh sdch gidm sinh, 43% dp dyng chinh sich khuyin sinh va da sd qudc gia cdn lai cd chinh sich tri miic smh hi?n tai (UN, 2013) Viet Nam d i ap dung chinh sdch gidm sinh tir nhimg ndm 60 ciia thi kJ trudc, Cho ddn nay, mgt nhung myc tieu Chiin luge dan sd ciia Viet Nam la tiep tyc gidm tdng ty suit smh, xudng 1,8 vdo ndm 2020 (Chinh phii, 2011) Phap lenh Dan sd liien hdnh van quy dinh mdi c|ip vg chdng chi sinh hodc (Qudc hdi, 2013) khdng phdn bi$t vimg hay tinh/thanh phd cd miic sinh cao hay thap, Viet Nam vln chua cd chinh saeh nao true tiip khuyin khieh sinh dd dd thyc hi?n mgt sd chinh sdch xd hdi ed thi giin tiep khuyen sinh khdng chu dich Thdi gian gdn ddy, dd cd mgt sd khuyin nghi nSn sdm bd quy djnh han che sinh de nhdm tranh miic sinh giam sdu dSn den tinh tr^uig gid hda ddn so qui nhanh (TCTK vd UNFPA, 2016) Do cung Id bai hgc kinh nghi?m thyc hien chinh sdch sinh de d mgt sd qudc gia vd vung lanh tho trii qua qui dd din so trudc Vi$t Nam nhu Thai Lan, Trung Qudc, Dii Loan, Han Quoc, Nhat Ban (Chen, 2012; Hirschman va cgng sy, 1994; Lee, 2009; Morgan va cdng sy, 2009; Suzuki 2006 vd 2013) Ben canh do, cung cd y kiin cho ring qui sdm de bd quy djnh mdi cdp vg chdng chi sinh I hodc boi dieu dd se 1dm miic sinh ting trd ltd Cd le vl the nen sau ban hanh Phdp l^oh Dan sd nam 2003 khdng djnh moi cdp vg chong cd quyen quyit dinh v i thcri gian sinh con, sd va khodng each giiia cdc ldn sinh (Quoc hgi 2003) thi Phap l?nh Dan sd siia ddi nam 2008 (hgp nhdt ndm 2013) lai quy dinh rd chinh sdch sinh hodc (Quoc Hgi, 2008) Dy thao Luit Dan so khdng cd quy dinh cy the ve sd con, nhung chii truong giam sinh a dja phuang c6 miic sinh cao tdng sinh d dia phuong cd miic sinh qud thdp (Qudc hdi, 2017) Tuy nhien, bg luit cdn dang qua trinh xem xet v i c6 the chinh siia them nen van chua chinh thirc dugc thdng qua vd ban hanh Tinh tr?ng cho thiy, cac nha ldp phdp va qudn ly van khd din vi^c quyit dinh chinh saeh sinh de Vi^t Nam cho giai doan sdp tdi Theo nhiing sd Ii?u Ihdng ke cdng bd chinh thiic thi tong X^j suat sinh (TFR) ciia Viet Nam 6n dinh d gan miic sinh thay the (2,1) mdt thap nien qua, nhung sy khdc biet vi TFR theo vimg dia ly gia tang Vao nim 2014, TFR ciia vung ddng bdng sdng Hdng Id 2,3 thi TFR cua vimg Ddng Nam Bd chi 1,56, vd d phd Hd Chi Mmh Ii dudi 1,4 (TCTK v i UNFPA, 2016) Ket qud khao sdt nim 2015 cho thay, TFR a vimg Ddng Nam Bg da tang len 1,63 nhung vln cdn thap hon mirc smh thay the nhiiu (TCTK, 2016) So vdi cic vimg khdc trdn todn qudc, Ddng Nam Bg Id vimg cd thu nh§p binh quan diu ngudi cao nhat va dan dau vi nhiiu chi tieu phat trien kinh te xd hgi Cau hdi ddt Ii nhihig ylu to x i hdi vi nhan khdu hgc ndo lien quan den mirc sinh thap d vimg nay'' Niu nhu miie sinh gidm sau la xu hudng chung a Vi?t Nam qud trinh phit triin thi th\rc ti ndy ddi hdi cd nhihig hi?u chinh chinh sdch kiem sodt mirc smh kip thdi vi phil hgp Cho din nay, nghien ciru vi mirc sinh thdp d Vi$t Nam cdn rat I ^ che vi cd le mdi chi dugc di cap din mdt chuyen khdo gan day cua Tong cyc thong ke 44 Nhiing yiu td quyel djnh Tmh Irgng mdc sinh thdp vi Quy Ddn so Lien hgp qudc (TCTK vd UNFPA, 2016) Chuydn khdo dira nhdn dinh ring tudi kit hdn tdng, gidm ty Ig kit hdn, vd qui trinh dd thi hda cd thi Id cdc nguySn nhdn chinh dan din miic sinh khd thip d mgt sd tinh thinh vio ndm 2014, Tuy nhien phan tich ndy cdn khd so luge vd khdng thyc hi?n rieng cho vimg Ddng Nam Bd- Do do, vi?c phin tich lim hieu sdu hrm dgng thii ve muc sinh thip vimg Ddng Nam Bd Id can thiit nhim cung cip them co sd khoa hgc gdp phan xdy dyng chinh sdch dan so cho giai doEin tiip theo cho hiSu qua va phi hgp vdi myc tieu phit trien bin vimg Co* so-1^ lu^n v i phuwng phip Co sd di phdn tich cdc yeu td kinh le - xd hdi vd nhdn khau hgc quydt djnh miic sinh la mgl sd Iy thuyit dan so vd cic kit qud nghien ciiu dan so hgc xa hgi ve gidm sinh Ly thuyet qua dg ddn sd md ta vd gidi thich sy chuyin doi mang tinh quy luat ciia cic ddn sd tir muc chit vd mirc sinh deu cao sang miic chet thap vi mirc sinh thdp tdc dgng cua qua trinh hien dai hda va cdng nghiep hda Do miic chet thudng gidm tiudc miic sinh nSn d ^ din giai doan cd miic sinh eao hon miic chet vi quy md dan sd ting nhanh (Casterline 2003) Nhu vdy, theo ly thuyit qui din sd thl giam miic chit khdng chi cd mdi lien he md cdn Id dgng lyc quan trgng ciia gidm miic sinh Tuy nhien, chi rieng miic chit cimg nhu ly thuyit qui dd din sd ndi chung khdng dii de giii thich mgi bien dgng mirc sinh, nhdt Id v£ tdc dg gidm sinh hay hien tugng miic sinh gidm xudng dudi miic thay the, Cac nhi nliien ciiu dd dua mdt sd md hinh gidi thich tryc tiep miic sinh dya tren cdc yeu td sinh hgc cua qua trinh sinh sin, hay cdn ggi la cic yeu td quyet dinh miic sinh gan sat Phdt trien tir luge dd cila Davis vd Blake (1956), Bongaarts (1978) dua md hlnh gom yeu td quyit dinh mirc sinh gan sat mi dd cd yeu Id chinh la: chi sd kit hdn, sir dyng trdnh thai, nao phd thai, va nudi bing sihi m?, Thyc te cho thay, cdng thiic tinh TFR dya tren muc sinh tif nhien ciing yeu to ndy den (Bongaarts, 1978) td khd ehinh xic vd dd dugc dp dyng bien nghien cihi ve miic sinh tren the gidi, dd cd cd Vi?t Nam (vi dy: Haughton, 1997), Dieu djc bi?t hi^u qua xiy dyng cdc chinh sich giam smh d cic ddn sd ed miic sinh cao thdng qua khuyen khieh ket hdn mugn, sir dyng trdnh thai hi?u qud, nudi bdng siia m? va cd thi cho phep nao thai Khi miic sinh gan miic thay the hodc thdp hon, md hinh cOa Bongaarts (1978) van cd the dp dyng nhung khdng cd niiiiu -y nghia thuc tien bdi tinh trang thudng xdy nhimg ddn so d mirc phat triin kinh te xd hgi trung binh trd len, nhu ciu trdnh thai, tranh sinh dl ddng dugc dap iing Tir thuc tien dd, Bongaarts (2002 va 2001) dd di xuat md hlnh udc lugng miic sinh tir sd mong mudn ciing vdi nhdm yiu td lac dgng the hi?n qua cdng thiic: TFR = tPx (F„ xFr1dng bing sdng Hong de cd the so sinh, danh gii cdc yeu td tdc dgng Ngoii ra, phuong phip chuin hda ty suit ciing dugc dp dyng de cd thyc hi?n cdc phdn tich so sdch, ddnh gid tdc ddng (xem Caselli, Vallm vi Wunsch, 2006:200) Phan tich cac yiu to quyet djnh mii-c sinh thap ix viing Dong Nam b$ 3.1 Sd thich CO trai (F^ Sd thich cd trai Ii yiu Id cd thi Iim gia tdng mirc sinh Ci Vi?t Nam, di cd nghien ciiu cho thiy giai doan 2009-2014, xdc suit sinh thii hai diu Ii gdi cao hon hdn so vdi nhiing truong hgp dd cd trai (TCTK and UNFPA 2016) Nhu vgy, cd thi dua gii thuyit Id sd thich cd trai d vimg Ddng Nam Bg khdng manh vd dieu dd gdp phdn lam cho mirc sinh d viing ndy thip hon han vimg Dong bdng song Hdng Di kiim dinh gia thuyit Bang trinh bay kit qui phdn tich long ty suit sinh ndm 2014 ciia vimg Dong bdng sdng Hong, viing Ddng Nam Bg vd todn qudc thinh nhom dya tren gidi tinh cdc cdn sdng ciia m3i phy nii trudc lin sinh cuoi ciia hg khodng thdi gian tir thdng 4/2013 din hit thdng 3/2014 Bing Phan tieS\ TFR theo gidi tinh cdc C6D s6Dg trade l^n siDh cu^i, 2014 Nhfim DB song Hong Dong Nam BQ Chua c6 1,05 0.82 1,02 M^t trai 0,47 0.34 Vi^lNam 0,44 MOt %ii 0,46 0.29 0,39 Tren con, chi gii O.IS 0,0S 0,11 Con trai vi gii 0,14 0,06 0,13 T6ng(TFRth\rctl) 2,30 1,56 2,09 Ty s6 Nhiim / N]i6m TFR* 1.28 0,74 0,84 2,26 1,57 H^s6fj 1.02 0,99 2,11 0,99 Ngudn So hiu DTDSGK ndm 2014 Chli Ihich: • neu miic sinh cQa nhSm bang ciia nhbm So sdnh kSt qud cho nhdm va nhdm Ihi ed thi thiy, d vung Dong bdng sdng Hdng, tong ly sudt sinh phan ciia nhdm "cd gii trd Ien" Id 0,18, cao hon dang ki so vdi nhdm "cd cd trai va gii" (0,14) vi ty so chenh l§ch hai nhdm li 1,28 Nguyen Ddc Vinh 4? Stf khdc bi§t niy chiing td d viing D^ng bdng sdng H^ng, sd thich cd trai da gdp phin 1dm tdng TFR (F, li 1,02) Trong dd, sy khie bi^t d viing Ddng Nam Bd thip hon hdn (0,05 va 0,06), th§m chi cd xu hudng ngugc 1^ vdi t j s6 ehgnh l$ch la 0,74 (Fg li 0,99) Niu so thich cd trai d viing Ddng bing song H6ng cung thip nhu d vimg Ddng Nam Bg thi cd thi dp dyng t j s6 0,74 v i dd, t j suit smh thinh phin eua nhdm "cd COB gdi tro ldn" viing D^ng bing sdng H6ng vio nim 2014 se chi Id 0,1 vi TFR sS li 2,22 Ngugc lgi neu i p dyng t j s6 1,28 cho viing Dong Nam Bg thi t j suit smh thinh phin cfia nhdm "c6 gai trd Ien" d vdng niy s5 li 0,08 v i TFR se la 1,59 Kit qud so sdnh tuong ty giua nhdm (chi cd trai) va nhdm (chi cd gii) cQng cho thiy miic dg tic ddng khdng Ion Diiu khdng mlu thuin vdi kit qua til phan tich gin ddy cho toin qu6c giai dogn 2009-2014 (TCTK v i UNFPA, 2016) Nhu vdy, cd the kit lugn la sd thich co eon trai dd gdp phin vio tinh trgng miic sinh ndm 2014 d vimg Ddng Nam Bg thip hon muc sinh vimg Ddng bdng sdng Hdng, nhung tdc d§ng li khd nhd Ngay ci d vimg Ddng bing sdng H&ng cung nhu toan qu6c ndi chung thi sd thich cd trai Idm gia tSag t^ so gioi tinh sinh, nhung khdng tdc ddng ldn din miic smh 3.2 Gia tang luSiphff nit kbi sinh (F^ Khi tu6i tnmg bbih ciia phy nil shih ting (hay gidm) thl TFR cihig giim (hay tfing) theo cho dii tdng so eon dy djnh sS sinh eua mSi phy nQ Id khdng dii, Nhu vgy, vigc phy nft thay d6i tudi sinh cd thi tgm thdi inh hirdng den miic sinh ciia ndm tuong fing (TFR) nhimg khdng lam thay d6i mile sinh dodn h$ Di ddnh gid tdc dgng ciia v i ^ tfing hay giam tuoi trung blnb cila phy nii sinh din miic suih, Bongaarts v i Feeney (1998) d i dua cdng thiic: TFR'= IJFRi/Cy-Ti) Trong dd: TFRt td ting ^ suit sinh tfnh cho lin sinh thit /; n t i miic thay dii tuoi ioi hlnh quan phy mi smh lin thd i (tinh bdng si tuoi thay doi trung binh mSi "; TFR' l i ting ty' suat suih hifu chhih (tirong ung vdi tu6i trung bhih phy nil tai Ji sinh khdng thay ddi) Bang Tdc d^ng cda tang tudi kbi sinh d^D TFR cOa viing Bbag Nam B^ ni^ 2014 linamhlbC: TFR, TFR) 2014 2014 0,78 34,19 0.105 0,144 0,77 0,70 0,15 35,20 -0,130 0,63 0,13 0,03 2009 2014 26,25 30,65 26,20 31,18 4+ TinatTFR) 33,47 35,85 '• -0,010 Tii6i t n u e binh phv nCt sinh ,I 1,56 0.03 1,64 Ngudn: SS liiu TDTDS ndm 2009 vi Bihi tra Nhdn khdo hpc giCta k^ nUm 2014 Bing trinh biy kit qui ip dyng cdng thiic (4) cho miic sinh vimg E)dng Nam Bd nfim 2014 Vi§c phy nii sinh mugn hon, chii yiu la d lin smh t h i v i thii 3, di Idm giam TFR cila vOng Ddng Nam B$ ndm 2014 khoang 0,08 con, tuong iing vdi hf s6 i^, = 48 NliOngyiu td quyel d/nh tinh Irpng muc sinh lhap 1,56 / (1,56 + 0,08) = 0,95, Niu khdng cd biin dgng vi tuoi phy nii sinh tW TFR cila vimg Ddng Nam Bg se li khodng 1,64, van khd thap so vdi miic smh thay the cQng nhu so vdi TFR ciia cdc viing khac d Viet Nam Nhiing tinh todn tuong tu udc lugng dugc he sd F, la 1,0 cho viing Ddng bdng sdng Hdng va 0,97 cho todn qudc Nhu vdy, viec biin thien tuoi trung binh phu nii sinh khdng anh hudng din TFR vung Dong bdng sdng Hdng ndm 2014, nhung dd lam gidm TFRvimg Ddng Nam Bg cfing nhu TFR cila loan qudc vdi miic dg khdng qua Ion 3.3 Cdc yeu tS cgnh tranh Do Fc la tgp hgp kha nhiiu nhOng yiu to ngdn cdn phu na dat so mong muon, phdn tich chi tap Irung vdo hai yiu id quan nhit Id tinh trgng hdn nhdn (Fd) va thi hoa (Fc2)- Trong dd, ly le thi hda dugc sii dung de thay the cho chi bdo ve miic phu nu tham gia Idm vi£c phi ndng Cdc yeu td khac nhu: di hgc, chi phi nuoi cao chinh saeh hgn chi smh de dugc gii thiit chi la cd tac dgng rit nhd hoac khdng khac biel dang ke giiia viing Dong bdng sdng Hdng vi Ddng Nam Bg Fc = Fci X Frt X F„ (4) * Tinh trgng hon nhdn ciia phu nii (Fd) Do miic sinh ngodi hdn nhan d Viet Nam v ^ cdn rat thap nen tinh trgng hdn nhan ludn cd tdc ddng mgnh den tdng ty suat sinh Hinh cho thay vio ndm 2014, tyl^phii nii dang cd chdng d viuig Ddng Nam Bd ludn ihip hon dang ki so vdi d Dong bdng sdng Hdng (DBSH) tit ca cic nhdm tudi tCi 20-24 den 45-49 Nhu vgy, rit cd the co can hdn nhdn chinh la yeu td quan trgng nhat dan den khac biet vd mirc sinh giiia hai viing, Hinh I Phan bo tinh trang hnn nbSn ciia phu nu theo nhom tuoi il Dung bang song Hong vk Bong Nam B$ v^o n^m 2014 —•—EIBSH ChvaK^hAn —•—DNB Chira Kei nan 100 80 " ^ —•^Oangcicltbas • Bang cO cli&ng f~ —•—LyhOn (ylhan gOs —B—Ly hOn ly ttidn gita • ' f 70 %so 40 30 70 5-19 20-24 Nguon So liifu DTDSGK ndm 2014 25-29 30^4 Nh6m tuA 35-39 40-44 45-49 Nguyin Due Vinh 49 _ Dexac dinh chi so tie ddng cua co cdu hdn nhin den miic sinh (F,.), cdch don gidn nhat Id lay ty 1? phy nii dang cd ching todn bg phy nii 15^9 tuoi Tuy nhien khong phai Id cdch tdi uu bdi khdng tinh din co ciu ciia tuoi cua phy nii Hon nira, so mong mudn khd thip tiii TFR cd thi dgt gid tri ci ty IS phy wi cd chdng dudi 100% nhiiu So ligu truih bay tgi Bdng cho tiidy, cdc ty suit sinh dac trung theo mii (ASFR) duge tmh rieng cho ba nhdm linh trang hdn nhdn ciia phy n& hai vimg Ket qui cho thay, nhdm sinh sin chii yeu la phy nii dang cd chdng thl vimg Ddng Nam Bg cd ASFR d cdc nhdm tudi dudi 35 thip hon dang ki so vdi vimg Dong bdng sdng Hdng, nhung Igi nhinh hon d cic nhdm mdi 35-39 yd 40-49 Trong dd, sinh de ngoai hdn nhdn d cd hai vimg deu kha thip va chi gdp phin rit nhd vao long ty suit sinh Nhin chung, miic sinh ciia phy nii chua ket hdn d Ddng bdng sdng Hong cao hon d vimg Ddng Nam Bd, nhit li nhdm tuoi 35-39 (19,l%o) Trong dd, miic sinh cua nhdm phu nQ ly hdn/Iy thin/gda d viing Ddng Nam Bg lai eao hon, d|c biet li d cdc nhdm 15-19 vi 20-24 mii Bang TJ suit sinb djc Irimg theo tu6i vii tinh tr^ng h6n nh§D, 2014 Dong bdng song Hdng: Chua ket hon C6 vg/chSng Ly hSn, ly thSn, g 1998 On the quantum and tempo of fertility Populalion and Developmeni fltrt'icw, 24(2) 271-291 Boncgans, John 2001 Fenilil> and reproductive preferences ir post-transilional societies Populuaon and DexWtipmi-nifiiTi^,27(Supplemem Global renilirj Transilion) 260-281 Caselli.G,J Vallm G J Wunsch 2006 Demography Analysiy and SymheMi Elsevier Caslerhne, John 2003 Demographic Irjnsilion In P Demeny & G McNicoU (ecis ), Encyclopedia of Populalion Macmillan Reference Keu York Chen, Vu -Hue 2012 Trends m low fenilil> and policy responses in Tainan The Japanese Journal of Populalmn 10(1) Chmh phii 2011 Chin lu(,ii Dan so vd Sdciihoe unh sdn Vifl Nam giai do^m 2011 - 2020 Hi Ngi Quy^t dinhs6 201jQD-TTgnga\ 14/11 2013 Davis, K, J Bkke 1956 Social struclure and femhly an analytic framework Economic Developmeni and Cidlural Cliange 4{3) 211-235 DhLirmalmgam, A , S Raj an, S P Morgjn 2014 The delenninanls of low fertility m India Demography 51(4) 1451-75 ilaee^en, K and S P Morgan 2005 Intended and ideal family size in the United States 1970-2002 Populalion and Developmeni RL-VI™, 31(3), 507-527 Haughlon, Jonathan 1997 Falling fertility m Vietnam Population Studies, ^2) 203-2011 Hirschman,C , J Tan, A Chamratriihirong, P Guest 1994 The palh to below replacement-level fertilil) in Thailand Inlernaliona! Family Planning Perspectives, 20(3), 82-107 Lee, Sam-Sik 2005 Low fertility and policy responses m Korea Tiie Japanese Journal of Population.1{\) Morgan, Philip 2003 Is low fertility a twentj-first-centurj' demographic crisis'' Demography 40(4) 5E9603 Murgiin, P, G Zhigang, S Elayford 2009 China's below-re placement fertility recent trends and future prospecls Populalion and Developmeni Review 35(3) 605-629 Morgan, S P and M G Ta>lor 2006 low fertility al ihe turn oflhe twentj'-firsi ceniur)' innual Review of Soeioloj^v.-il 375-399 Quoc hgi 2003 Phap i?nii so 06'2003/PL-UBTVQHl ngSy 09/01/2003 ve Dan so Uy ban Ihuemg vv Quochyi IliiNgi Quoc hoi 2013 Phip Ifnh cua Uj ban Ihufmg vu Quoc hgi so O6.'2003/PL-UBTVQH11 ngiv 9/1/2003 v^ dan so IU Ngi Quoc hgi 2017 Di; Ihao Lu?I Dan so (d;r thio \m 2) http //dulhaoonlinc quochoi vn/DuThao/Lisls/DT_DUTHAO_LUAT/ Qaoc HOI 2008 Phap l^nh So 08/2008/PL-UBTVQH12, siia d,^i Dieu 10 ciia Phip Ijnh Dan so nam 2003 L'\ ban thuong v(i Quoc hgi Su/uki, Tom 2006 Femlity decline and policy developmeni in Japan The Jtipimese Journal of Populalion 4(1) Suzuki Tom 2013 LimFMilily and Populalion 4iimg in Japan and Easlern Asia Sprm^er, Tokyo Tong cgc Thong ke 2016 Kel qua ehu yeu Diiu ira bien dvng ddn so vd kii hogch hoa gia dinh iht'ri diem I •!/:in5 Nxb Thong ke Hi Ngi TCfKva UNFPA 2016 KSiic sinlid Vivt Nam Xu bxrangvd nhiingySu lu idc ddng Hii N(,i Dieu ira dan s6\anhaagiuak} 201J Nxb I hong tin, Ha Ngi UN 2013 II orld Populalion Policy Economic and Social Affairs, New York ... quyit dinh chinh saeh sinh de Vi^t Nam cho giai doan sdp tdi Theo nhiing sd Ii?u Ihdng ke cdng bd chinh thiic thi tong X^j suat sinh (TFR) ciia Viet Nam 6n dinh d gan miic sinh thay the (2,1) mdt... mii-c sinh thap ix viing Dong Nam b$ 3.1 Sd thich CO trai (F^ Sd thich cd trai Ii yiu Id cd thi Iim gia tdng mirc sinh Ci Vi?t Nam, di cd nghien ciiu cho thiy giai doan 2009-2014, xdc suit sinh. .. tdng ty suit sinh Ihdp d vdng Ddng Nam Bg tgo khodng each dang ke so vdi vimg Ddng bdng sdng Hdng Do sinh di ngodi hdn nhin cdn kha hiim d Vift Nam, ty If phy nii chua kit hdn d Ddng Nam By tdng