hd trd nhat dinh ciia Chinh phii \ e ngudn vd'n hodc lai suat thffdng tiet kiem. Chinh phii nen tham gia vao cd che hdp ddng tiet kiC'ni BDS dffdi goc dp hd trd, khuyen khich tiet k[r]
(1)Phat trid'n hd thdng
thi trtf of ng tai chinh nha of DiNH TRQNG T H A N Q
Vien Nghien cufu Quan ly Kinh te Trung iTdng
Td'ng quan v l hd thd'ng thj trifofng tai chinh nha d
Hien ty le nd/vd'n chii sd hffu ciia cdc cdng ty phdt trien nhd d Viet Nam vao khodng lan, qud cao so vdi ty le nd/vd'n an toan tieu chuan Cdc ngan hdng thffdng mai dang la dd'i tffdng gdnh chiu phan rui ro cua vide huy ddng vd'n dau tff nha d Khi thi trffdng nhd d tram lang, he thd'ng ngan hang d l dffng trffdc nguy cd ty le nd xau tang eao dot ngpt va mdt so ngan hang nhd cd the' gap khiing hodng khodn
Thi trudng so cdp
Bd'n ngudn vd'n chu yeu hien dang dau tff vdo thi trffdng bat dpng sdn (BDS) sd cap, bao gdm: ngudn vd'n tff cd eua doanh nghidp, vd'n huy ddng cua khdch hang, vd'n vay vd vd'n phdt hdnh trdi phid'u Trong dd, vd'n vay chu yd'u la tff cdc Ngan hang thffdng mai (NHTM) Ngoai ra, cdn cd ngudn vd'n dau tff nffdc ngodi, nhien, ngudn vd'n ndy chi ed eac dff dn dau tff nffdc ngodi hoac hdp tdc, hen doanh vdi nffdc ngoai Khi dd, cd cau vd'n tff cd se la ngudn vd'n dau tff nffde ngoai Cd ea'u ngudn vd'n nhff vay ddn tdi vide cac nhd dau tff BDS ed
Thj trufofng nha lidn quan trffc tid'p tdfi in$t Ivl^ng tai san rS't Idfn, ca v l quy md, tinh chdt cung nhff gia tr|, cua cac m^t trong n i n kinh td' qud'c dSn Nha d la mOt hang hoa d^c thii, la tai san Idn cua mdi qud'c gia Vide phat trid'n va quan ly hd thd'ng thj trffoTng tai chinh nha d (housing mortgage market) la ufu tidn chinh sach quan trpng tai nhilu nffdc trdn thd'gidi
d Vidt Nam hidn hd thd'ng thi trffoTng tai chinh nha of
nidi dang phat tri^n of giai do^n dSu, chu yd'u tSp trung of cac kdnh huy ddng vd'n ddn gian nhff ngdn hang, tin dung va huy dOng vd'n tff ngffofi suf dung Cac kdnh huy dOng vd'n thdng qua thi trffofng chffng khoan va cac cdng cu tai chinh khac con d trinh dO phat trid'n thS'p Bai vidt se phdn tich tdng quan hd thd'ng tai chinh nha of tai Vidt Nam, trdn cd sd dffa nhffng vS'n d l nd'i bdt cSn co chinh sach giai quyd't
the huy ddng dffdc mdt Iffdng vd'n ben ngoai khd Idn (tren 80%) tai trd eho eae dff dn phdt trien BDS Dong thdi, ty Id huy ddng vd'n trifc tie'p cao tff khdch hdng khien cho chi phi huy ddng vd'n d mffc hdp ly
Thi trudng tdi chinh nhd d ddnh cho cdc hg gia dinh
Trong so' nhffng ngffdi can vd'n cho nha d, thi eae hp gia dinh la dd'i tffdng can dffdc hd trd tdi chinh nha't, vide tich luy tren thu nhap eua hp rat nhd so vdi tri gid cua BIEU DO cd CAU NGUON VON DAU TU CCIA CAC DOf AN PHAT TRIEN NHA d
Vein phat hMi trai
^ • ' ' vixitu CO (18%)
on vay tin cling
(56.2%) V / v o n h u y dgng cua
kliach hang (^,2^o)
Ngudn: tiiili toan cna tac gia
BANG: TIN DUNG BAT DONG SAN (2005 - 2011)
GDP (gia hi6n hanh t^ d6ng)
Tin dung toan he thdng Vift Nam (ty VND) Trong do: Tin dung cho BBS {ty VND) Ty tin dung BDS/tong tin dung (%) Do sdu tai chinh BDS (TD BBS/GDP) (%)
2005
839,200 543,100 68,431 12,6 8,2
2007
1.144,000 1.067,701 115,962 10,9 10.1
2009
1.755,000 1.843,800 218.786 11,9 12,5
2010
1.952,000 2.393,400 236,198 9.9 12,1
2011
2.069,120 2.800,278 201,025 8,45 12,3
Ngufin: Ngan hang Nha niiflc, Uy' ban Giam sat Tal chfnh quoc gia, B6 X§y dgng va tinh toan ciia tac gia (S6' ligu nSm 2011 la ifdc tfnh)
(2)NQHierS CCfu - TRAO DOl
n
^
Trong so nnong ngooi can von cno nna o, tm cac no gia ainn la aoi lupng can aupc no iip rai chfnh nhifiu nhS't
BDS Trong dd ede cdng ty xay dffng va edng ty phdt trien cd the chiem dung vd'n lan \ a ngudn vdn thffdng la ngan de'n trung han (ngay sau xay dffng hodc bdn nha da thu hdi du vdn)
Khd ndng tich luy de chi cho BDS tdi da ehi dat tren khodng 11.5%/ tdng thu nhap Day Id mdt ty le rat tha'p so vdi chi phi tien BDS thffc te'hien Ngudn vd'n cho BDS dia ban dd thj gdm ba phan doan ehinh: tff tich luy vd thj trffdng khdng chinh thffc; ngudn tdi trd tff ngan sdch nhd nffdc; vd von vay tin dung
Tuy nhien, xu hffdng chung la tin dung BDS tang vdi td'c dd kha nhanh Tff thdng 12/2003 tdi thdng 9/2008, tdng dff nd BDS trong he thd'ng NHTM da tdng khoang 486% Td'c dp tang trffdng tin dung BDS binh quan tff ndm 2003 tdi dat khodng 60%/ nam, nhanh gan gap ddi so vdi tdc dp tang trffdng tin dung ndi chung cua he thdng ngan hdng
Mac dii xu hffdng ddi han la gia tang, dff nd cho vay BDS ngan han tang giam gan lien vdi bie'n ddng ndng lanh cua thi trffdng BDS Vdo thdi diem thi trffdng BDS sdt ndng, nhffng ludng vdn ngan hang vdo thi trffdng BDS tang dot bie'n, vd ngffdc lai Tff sau thdng 3/2008, thi tifdng BDS di xudng, ludng vdn ngdn hang cho vay BDS
khdng nhffng khdng tang, md edn gidm manh (gidm gan liV/r), khi tdng dff nd tin dung ngan hang van tdng d mffc gan 16*^ Nhff vdy, ludng tin dung ngan hdng khdng chi cap vd'n, ma ed thdi diem cdn nit vd'n khdi thi trffdng BDS
Nhffng vS'n de d$t
He thdng ngan hdng dang cd vai trd chii Iffc huy ddng va cung cap vd'n dau tff BDS, bao gdm ed tieu diing vd phdt trien BDS Viec eung cap dffdc thffc hien thdng qua eae NHTM bdn le chuyen cho vay den eae ea nhan, hd gia dinh Hoat ddng tin dung BDS ciia cdc NHTM hipn nay tap trung vdo vice tdi trd cho ede dff dn kinh doanh phdt trien BDS Ty le tdi trd cho hoat dpng tieu dung BDS cdn tha'p Vdi ea'u tnic kinh doanh nhtf vay, NHTM gdp phdi nhieu nii ro ve tin dung, lai sua't, thj trffdng va rui ro ve dao dffc
Trinh dp phdt trien ctia he thdng cdc kenh huy dpng vdn dau tff nha d dd thi tac ddng trifc tiep tdi he thd'ng tdi chinh qudc gia va viec ngffdi dan cd BDS, vay cd nhffng dnh hffdng Idn tdi nen kinh te xa hpi ndi chung Nhffng yeu kem eua he thdng tai chinh nha d hien dang gay nhffng dnh hffdng trifc tie'p sau day:
Thii nhdt, cd cd'u ngudn vdn tai
thj trffdng sd ca'p dan tdi ludng vdn tdi trd eho cdc dff dn thie'u dn dinh Cae dff dn dau tff BDS chu yeu dffa vdo ngudn tdi trd ben ngoai la vdn vay tin dung (56,2%) vd vdn huy dOng ciia khdch hdng (24,2%), nhffng cd hai ludng vdn ndy deu co linh ngan han vd rat nhay cdm vdi eae bidn dpng ciia thj trffdng Dau tff tin dung tff cdc ngan hang cho dff dn BDS thffdng chi d mffc ngan han vd trung han Do vay, moi thi trffdng di xudng, cdc chu dau tff dffng trffdc nguy ed khdng the hoan tat dff dn, ddc biet Id cdc dff an Idn va ddi han, vd dffng trffdc nguy cd vd nd Hien tinh hinh dang lap lai, cdc chii d^u tff khdng cd ngudn vdn dc tiep tuc dff dn dang dd
Thd hai khd phdt trien cac dff
an nhd bdn the chap tra gdp hoac nhd cho thue Nhffng dff an ndy la mpt thj trffdng tdt ddi han va cung ddp ffng nhu cau nha d cua ngffdi dan, ddc biet la ngffdi co thu nhap trung binh Tuy nhien, theo ffdc tinh, nhffng dff dn tren can den 20-30 nam de thu hdi chi phi dau tff Cdc doanh nghiep vffa phdi dam bao gid nha ban hoac nha eho thue thap, hp edn phai ddi mat vdi mpt khoan nd vay Idn tff ngan hang phai tra vd vd'n huy dpng Cdn eae NHTM lai gap khd khdn md rpng thdi han cho vay, hau he't cac khodn tien gffi deu la ngan han (ty le sff dung vd'n huy ddng ngan han de cho \ay ddi han cung la mdt chi so quan trpng ndi len dp an toan ciia he thdng ngan hang)
Thd ba, lam giam ty 16 ngtfdi
dan cd nhd d Theo ddnh gia ciia Bp Xay dffng, ty le ngffdi dan thanh thi cd nhu cau ve nha d la ra't Idn, nhffhg chffa dffdc ddp ffng
Thd tu, thi trffdng nha d binh dan
kem phat trien Hien nay, yeu cau ve BDS cua ngffdi thi cd thu nhap trung binh la ra't Idn, nhien do khong cd cd che tai trd phii hdp n6n nhffng yeu cSu Idn khdng chuyin hod nhu c^u cd kha nang todn tren thi trffdng Thi trffdng BDS d cac thi chu yeu
(3)phdt trien cdc san pham cao ca'p danh cho ngffdi cd thu nhap cao vd ra't cao xa hpi
Thd ndm, tang nii ro cua he thdng tdi chinh Viec dffa qud nhieu vao kenh ca'p vd'n NHTM khien nii ro ciia he thd'ng tdi chinh tang, cho dii vd'n tai trd cho BDS cdn d mffc tha'p xet tren ty le cho vay BDS/GDP
Thii sdu, lam tang dau ed Ngudn vd'n tdi trd BDS ed xu hffdng ling hd cdc hoat ddng dau ed BDS, dan tdi ldm tram trpng them cdc ddt sdt ndng, lanh ciia thi trffdng BDS
Nghien effu ciia chiing tdi da ehi nguyen nhan cua yeu k^m hoat dpng eiia cdc kenh huy ddng vd'n dau tff nha d dd thi tai Viet Nam nhff sau:
Mot Id, bdi cdnh khdng thuan ldi ciia kinh te vi md, dac biet la lam phat vd lai suat lien tuc tn d mffc cao mpt thdi gian kha dai, cpng vdi viec ngffdi dan ndi chung cd khd nang tich luy thap, la eae rao can quan trpng dd'i vdi sff phdt trien cua cdc kenh tai ehinh nha d
Hai la, nen tang the che kinh te thi trffdng edn yeu Cdc nen tang the che ciia cac thi trffdng cd Uen quan nhff: BDS, ngan hang, chffng khoan, xay dffng cdn nhieu yeu kem, vay ngan cdn sff phdt trien ben vffng cua cdc kenh huy dpng vd'n dau tff nha d dd thi
Ba Id, mdi trffdng van hod xa hpi chffa that phu hdp vdi viec phat trien cdc cam ket tdi chinh dai han tai trd cho BDS Tam ly ngffdi dan khdng mud'n ganh chiu cdc khodn nd dai han Cdc quy tdi chinh dai han nhff: Quy htfu tri, bao hiem, dau tff chffa phdt trien
Bdn Id, Nha nffdc chffa cd dinh hffdng vd chien Iffdc rd rang viec phat trien va quan ly cdc kenh tai chinh nha d Nhin chung, vai trd quan trpng cua tdi chinh nhd d chffa dffdc danh gia dung Vai trd
ciia nhd nffdc viec cung cap tdi ehinh nhd d, ddc biet Id ve nha d xd hpi, chffa dffdc xdc dinh rd, vd sff chu ddng Iffa chpn phdt trien cdc kenh tdi chinh nhd d phii hdp cung chffa dffdc thffc hien
Ndm Id, ldi ich cua ngffdi tieu dting BDS chffa dffdc ddnh gid diing mffc Cdc chinh sdch tdi chinh nhd d bi dnh hffdng qua nhieu bdi ldi ich cua cdc cdng ty phdt trien BDS
Sdu Id eac cdng cu tdi chinh bat ddng sdn chffa dffdc sff dung day dii Nhieu cdng cu tdi chinh nhd d dffdc sff dung rdng rai tren thd gidi nhff REIT, hdp ddng tiet kiem mua nhd d, hdp ddng tin thdc nhd d, trdi phieu the chap BDS chffa hoat dpng, hodc hoat ddng rat sd khai d Viet Nam Do vay, he thd'ng cdc kenh huy ddng vd'n dau tff nhd d dd thi edn ddn dieu, chii yeu dffa vdo cdc NHTM va kenh tai chinh phi chinh thffc
Bdy Id chffa phan dinh rd trdch nhiem eua ede ed quan quan ly tai chinh, ngan hang, tdi nguyen mdi trffdng vd xay dffng viec phdt trien vd qudn ly cdc kenh tdi chinh nhd d Nhieu td chffe quan trpng ve phat trien vd qudn ly tdi chinh nhd d chffa dffdc thdnh lap nhff cd quan tai the chap BDS, cd quan bdo hiem the chap BDS, cd quan xep hang tin dung
Tdm Id, khung phap ly tao thuan ldi vd dieu tiet hoat ddng tdi chinh nhd d cdn sd khai Chffa ed khung phap luat chuyen biet ve qudn ly eho vay the chap, ve hoat dpng cua cac quy dau tff BDS cung nhff ede kenh tdi chinh tiem ndng nhff tiet kiem hdp ddng hoac trdi phieu the chd'p
Chin Id, ehinh sdch quan ly rui ro tin dung BDS theo kieu eao bang, chffa phan biet dudc cae mffc dp nii ro khdc gan vdi cdc loai the chap BDS khdc
MOt sd* giai phap
Trong dieu kien thi trffdng vdn, thi trffdng BDS va thi trffdng
tin dung d Viet Nam da cd nhieu bffdc phdt trien tich cffe, can can nhac thiet lap cdc kenh huy dpng vd'n dau tff nhd d thi mdi bang mpt sd gidi phdp nhff sau:
Thi diem thdnh lap Ngdn hdng tdi chinh (NHTC) vd ban hdnh trdi phiiu the chdp
Thj trffdng tdi ehinh nhd d sd cap dang dan hodn thien tai cdc thdnh phd Idn nhff Hd Npi vd thdnh phd Ho Chi Minh De he thd'ng hoat ddng hieu qud, nen xem xet lap NHTC tren cd sd ciia Quy dau tff Phdt trien BDS hodc lap han mpt phdp nhan mdi dffdi dang ngan hang qud'c doanh hoac cd phan (vdi dieu kien Nhd nffdc phai nam ed phan chi phdi)
Vdi chffe nang chffng khodn hda the chap, tren cd sd ede khodn vay ed the chap tai eac NHTM, ede ngan hdng se dem ban cdc khodn nd cd the' chap cho NHTC De cd dii vdn tdi tdi trd cho ede khodn vay BDS ciia cdc NHTM, ngoai vd'n tff cd, NHTC se phat hanh nffdc va qud'c te^ trdi phieu the' chap (chffng khodn hod tai sdn the' chap) Day Id mpt edng cu dau tff dai han dffdc bdo dam bang ehinh BDS, tffdng dd'i an todn eho ede nhd dau tff mudn dau tff, nhtfng khdng nha't thie^t phdi giff mpt khd'i BDS
Xdy dung khung phdp ly thiic ddy sU phdt triin ciia kenh huy dgng vdn tiet kiim hap dong BDS
Cdc chffdng trinh tiet kiem BDS theo hdp ddng ed sff hd trd ve ngudn vdn vd lai sua't cua Chinh phii la mdt bien phdp tffdng dd'i ddn gidn, nhffng rat hieu qua de huy ddng ngudn tai chinh nhd d Mpt nhffng ea'u phan hoan thien ehinh sdch la khuyen khich phdt trien he thd'ng hdp ddng tie't kiem nhd d
Cf nffdc ta, ty le lam phdt tffdng dd'i cao ldm gidm tinh ha'p din ciia tiet kiem, ngodi ehi phi thiet lap ngan hang chuyen biet cd the rat Idn Vi vay, thdi gian dau ed the dp dung mdt he thdng "lai" giffa tiet kiem theo hdp ddng va tiet kiem thdng thffdng Md hinh phii hdp cd the la cung ca'p chffdng trinh tiet kiem BDS theo hdp ddng
(4)NQHlfiN c d u - TRAO D |
^ ôôôã!''
^
-KhOng c6 lift tr0 cua tin dyng, th| traOng bSit dOmi sdn kho khdi s k thdng qua he thdng NHTM \ (ti sff
hd trd nhat dinh ciia Chinh phii \ e ngudn vd'n hodc lai suat thffdng tiet kiem Chinh phii nen tham gia vao cd che hdp ddng tiet kiC'ni BDS dffdi goc dp hd trd, khuyen khich tiet kiem, dae biet la vdi tang Idp ed thu nhap trung binh \ a thap
Xdy dung kenh lin thdc BDS lien kcl gida ngdn hdng doanh nghiep vd ngUdi ddn
De khac phuc han che ve ngudn vd'n dau tff kinh doanh BDS va nha d, mdt sd doanh nghiep da tien hanh hdp tac, lien doanh lien ket dffdi nhieu hinh thffc nhff: tim dd'i tac chien Iffdc de bdn cd phan, hdp tdc ciing khai thdc va thffc hien dff dn Tuy nhien, mdi lien ke't giffa doanh nghiep, ngan hang
\a khach hang hipn van edn han che Vi vay, vice tham gia vdo md hinh tin thae IU)S se lao dieu kien eho doanh nghiep v;i ngan hang tang kha ndng huy dpng vd'n tff khach hang tiem ndng
Trong thdi gian xay dffng edng trinh, eae chi phi eua eae hang muc cdng trinh se dffdc ehi tra tff tai khodn tin thdc Ngan hdng dinh ky thdng bdo cho ben tin thdc eac hang muc chi tiet ve tdi chinh, thu chi tff tdi khodn ndy Viec chi trd thdng qua tdi khodn tin thdc giiip ngan hdng kiem sodt va quan ly dffdc qud trinh sff dung ngudn vdn, dam bdo khodn tien cho vay dffdc sff dung hieu qud, dung muc dich Sau cdng trinh xay dffng hoan thdnh vd ngan hang da thu xong
khoan tien cho vay, cdc ben se tien hdnh ly hdp ddng tin thdc
Nhff vay, thi trffdng BDS Viet Nam dang can nhffng ngudn tai chfnh mdi Vice hinh thdnh cdc cdng cu tai ehinh de tdng ngudn lai chinh tdi trd eho thi trffdng BDS ndi chung, thj trffdng nha d dd thi ndi rieng Id van de quan trpng, can thiet Trong ngan han vd trung han, ne'u khdng giai quye't dffdc van de thi trffdng BDS se tie'p tuc gap khd khan Tuy nhien, de cd dffdc eac cdng eu tdi chinh mdi can cd sff tham gia ciia Nhd nffdc, doanh nghiep va eae ben hffu quan, can cd ca thdi gian, quyet tam va ngudn life de ed the nang trtnh dp thi trffdng BDS len cap dp tai chinh hda.*
TAI L i p u THAM KHAO
1 Bp Xay dffng (2010), Djnh hudng quy hoqch long the phdt nien dd thj Vift Nam den ndm 2020, Nha xua't bdn Xay dffng Ha Npi
2 Bp Xay dffng (2011), Chien lucre phdt iricn nhd d qudc gia den ndm 2020 vd tdm nhin den ndm 2030 3 Dinh Trpng Thang va cpng sff, (2008): "Cdc kinh liny dgng vdn ddu iifBDS: ca sd ly ludn kinh nghiem qudc te'vd gai y dp dung cho Vi$t Nam" CIEM, 2008
4 Le Xuan Bd (Chii bien), Tran Kim Chung (2006), Chinh sdch thu hiit ddu tUvdo thi trudng BDS Viet Nam, Nhd xuat bdn Chinh trj Qud'c gia Ha Npi
5 Ngan hdng Nhd nffdc Viet Nam, Bd Tff phdp, Bp Cdng an, Bp Tdi chinh, Td'ng cue dia chinh (2001), Thong tu liin tich sd03/2001/TrLT/NHNN-BTP-BCA-BTC-TCDC ngdy 23/04/2001 hUdng ddn viec xH ly tdi sdn bdo ddm tie vay de thu hoi ng cho cdc TCTD, Hd NOi
6 Marja C Hoek- Smit (1998), ''Housing Finance in Bangladesh- Improving Access to Housing Finance by Middle and Lower Income Groups", website: http://housingfinance.wharton.upenn.edu/ Documents/ bareport.pdf
7 Stanley D Longhofer, Paul S Calem (1999), "Mortgage brokers and fair lending" Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary, May 15, ABI/INFORM Research, pg 1-4
8 Terry Burke, David Hayward (2001), Performance Indicators and Social Housing in Australia, Institute for Social Research Swinburne, University of Technology, Melbourne, Austraha, website: www.sisr.net/ publications/01 burke pdf
9 William B Brueggeman, Jeffrey D Fisher (2004), Real estate finance and Investment, Mc Graw Hill
http://housingfinance.wharton.upenn.edu/ Documents www.sisr.net/