TS. Nguydn nhan chu yeu cua viec gia Itfdng thffc thffc pham "diu xud'ng" Id do sau nhu'ng cu sdc gid Itfdng thffc thtfc phim trdn cd thi trtfdng trong ntfdc va thl trtfdng [r]
(1)NOHieNCtfU -TRAO DOI
H Nhin thi trifofng gia ca quy I
Lo dinh don va thieu phat
TS VU DiMH ANH
Ciia Itfdng thffc "dju \iion^" Do chiem ldi xap xi 4()'^( irong rd hdng hod dich vu linh CPI nen neu gid nhdm hdng dn vd dich \u dn udng dan ddt lam phdl cao ndm 2010 va ndm 2011 Ihl chinh no cung dan diil xu hffdng gidm lam phdt iff thdng 9/2011 dd'n thdng 3/2012 Sau quy 1/2012 (so \di cudi ndm 2011), CPI chung Idng 2.55*"f thl chi sd' gid nhdm hang dn \a dich vu dn ud'ng chi tdng 2.299r ddc bidt gid nhdm hang Iffdng thffc lai gidm tdi 1,75% Rieng thdng 3/2012 gid cd cda ca nhdm Iffdng thffc va thffc pham deu gidm so vdi thdng trtfdc lan Itfdt la 1,21% vd
1,25%, nen so vdi cung ky ndm 2011 chi so' gia Itfdng thtfc ehi tdng 10.19% vd gid thtfc pham tang 20,14%, cdn an udng ngodi gia dinh tdng 19,36% Nguydn nhan chu yeu cua viec gia Itfdng thffc thffc pham "diu xud'ng" Id sau nhu'ng cu sdc gid Itfdng thffc thtfc phim trdn cd thi trtfdng ntfdc va thl trtfdng qud'c id ndm 2011, sang dau nam 2012 gid cd va can ddi cung clu Itfdng thtfc thffc pham khdng ed bie'n dpng bd't thtfdng, thdm chi cd xu hffdng giam Ngay ca cd thdng lin ve cha'l lao nac chdn nudi Idn, thl du cd luc, cd ndi thii Idn e am, gid giam xudng, song gia thffc pham thay thd' khdc lai khdng tdng manh nhtf trtfdng hdp xdy vdi thit gd dich cum gia cam, thii Idn dich tai xanh hay thit bo dich bd didn Id mom long mdng, trtfdc day Hdn nffa, sau kbi dat ky luc ve xuat khau gao trdn trieu tan ndm 2011 thl sang quy 1/2012 Viet Nam vd'p phai nhffng khd khan ca ve gid xua't khau va thi trtfdng xua't khau
Quy I nam 2012 kGt thiic bhng CPI thang 3/2012 thSfp mdt each bat ngrt - chK cd 0,16% ho vtfi thang tnt6c - mtfc thSTp nhS't thiing kd tir thang 4/2010 dd'n Hrfn th€f ntTa, xu Ihd'iMni phat giSm d^n kd ttf dinh cao 23,02% vao thang 8/2011 da cang drf(?c kh^ng djnh vffng chac khi lam phat linh Iheo nam so vdi ciing ky dd'n cu^i thdng 3/2012 chi 14.15'/^ va nd'u tmh binh qufln ciing ky 15.95% Nd'u xu thd'lam phat giam d^n dtf^c tn thi,
mifc tidu lam ph^t ca nam giffoi sd'l^ hoan toanco
thd d^t dtf^Tc, th^m chf cd thi d^t sdm hdn dtf ki^n v^o cud'i quJ 11/2012 Gia djnh thdng va thang CPI chi tang 0,5% thl CPI dd'n cud'i thang 5/2012 (tinh theo cung ky) chi 9,18%
gao pha) canh iranh vdi gao gia re cua An Dd Cd quy 1/2012, Itfdng gao xual khau chi cdn htJn 1.1 indu ta'n dal 556 trieu USD giam ldi 42.5% ca ve Itfdng vii gia tri so vdi ciing ky nam trifdc Dtf bdo quy 11/2012 dicn hid'n ihi trtfdng gid ca Itfdng thtfc ihtfc pham Hep tuc xu htfdng dn dinh nhtf irong quy 1/2012 thdm chi cdn on dmh hdn vi^i sir ho Ird cua qui lual \'\cu diiiii: t|ii\' II thffdng sut giaiii sn MU qii> BCMI canh dd gia hruiig ihi/c quy 11/2012 cdn chiu Lie ddng ctia (.htfidig Irinh mua lam Irff irieu lan gao vdi vice Nhd ntfdc hd lid
loan bd iai sual cho vay lam trff Ida gao Ihdi gian thang ke Iff l.S/.V2(}12ddn 15/6/2012
(iid nhdm han^ nha d \d vdi lieu \a> dtfn^: lang cao
Khdng Ihua kcni nhdm nhay cam nhtf ihtfc phum gia nha d \a vat lieu xay dtfng vffng vang d nhdm dan dau mffc tang gia .So \di cung ky ndm trtfdc gia nhdm nha d va vai lieu xay dtfng den cudi quy 1/2012 da tang tdi IS.OS' cdn iicu SI) vdi ky gdc 20t)9 thi gid nhdm dd tdng cao nha'l ldi 56.24% - cao hdn cd mffc
(2)tang ttfdng ffng cua gia nhdm thtfc phd'm (56,1%) va vtfpt xa mffc tdng chung cda CPI thdng 3/2012 so vdi ky gdc 2009 (40,98%) Ddng chu y la thdng 3/2012, gid nhdm nhd d vd vat lieu xay dtfng cung tang cao nha'l vdi mffc tdng 2,31% so vdi thdng trtfdc vd 6,63% so vdi cudi ndm trtfdc ba't cha'p thi trtfdng bd't ddng san dang ddng bang keo ddi sud't tff nam 2009 dd'n Nguydn nhdn chu yeu cda mffc tdng dff dpi gid nhdm nhd d vd vdi lidu xdy dtfng Id viec tang gid lien tuc vdi mffc cao cda dien ndm 2011 vd gas dau ndm 2012 Tff ngdy 1/3/2011, gid didn binh quan da dtfdc cho phdp tdng 15,28% vd dd'n 20/12/2011 lai tid'p luc tdng them 5% nhtfng gid dien thtfc te tdng cao hdn nhieu Hdn nffa, tang gid dien khdng chi tdc ddng trtfc tid'p tdi sff tdng gid cua nhdm nhd d va vai lieu xay dtfng, ma cdn tac ddng tdi gid cd cda td't ca nhdm hdng hod dich vu tieu dung khdc Ne'u gid dien lai dtfdc dieu chinh tang thdng hay thang tdi thi tdc ddng cua nd tdi thi trtfdng gid ca bang hod dich vu khdng chi mdt vai thang, md cdn cd the keo ddi dd'n cud'i nam dnh htfdng tdi muc tieu kiem chd' lam phdt mdt so' cda ca nam 2012, dd, thdi diem vd mffc dp didu chinh gid didn can dtfdc cdn nhac het sffc than
Cac mat hang khac xang dSu?
Ttfdng tff nhtf gid nhidu hang hod phai nhap khau khdc, gid gas thdng diu nam 2012 bid'n ddng manh chiu dnh hffdng cua bidn dpng tren thi trtfdng gas quoc te', song mffc dp bien ddng gid gas ntfdc cdn manh hdn thi trtfdng thd gidi Chinh gid gas tang la thd pham trtfc tidp gay mffc tdng cao cda gia nhdm nhd d va vat lidu xay dtfng cung nhtf cua gid nhdm an udng ngodi gia dinh gas da vd dang trd ngudn nang Itfdng quan trpng khdng ehi cho tidu dung hd gia dinh, nhat Id d dd thi, md cdn cho sdn xuat Ngay nhffng ngdy dau
lien cua ndm 2012, cung vdi tang gid ntfdc sinh boat, TP.Ho Chf Minh nd phdt sung diu lidn tdng gid gas them 24.000-26.000/binh 12 kg vdi ly gia gas thd' gidi tdng them 85 USD/td'n so vdi gid binh quan thdng 12/2011, rdi lai tang thdm lan nffa vdng vdi ngdy Tuy nhidn, dd'n giffa thdng 2/2012, Tdng cue Hdi quan cho bid'l gid nhap khd'u gas blnh qudn thdng 1/2012 Id 921 USD/td'n vd thdng 12/2011 chi Id 802 USD/ tan - lhap xa so vdi mffc gid tren 1.000 USD /tan md cdc doanh nghiep kinh doanh la'y dd Idm cdi cd dd tdng gid gas nffdc ldi trdn 40% theo kieu tdng gid ddn dau, hay nhff cd y kid'n ddnh gid Id cd hidn itfdng "Idm gid" va lung doan Irong kinh doanh gas vdi mffc tdng ky luc mdt lan tdi 52.000 ddng/binh 12 kg Chi thdng dau ndm 2012, gid gas dd Ian tang vd lan gidm, sau dd cd 10 lan tdng vd lln giam cd nam 2011 Rd rang, mac du mat hdng gas thuoc dien blnh dn gid vd phdi dang ky gid vdi sd tdi chfnh dia phtfdng Song, dtfdng nhtf cac bien phdp qudn ly thi trtfdng gia ca gas hien tai khdng hidu qud dd'i vdi hidn ttfdng "lien ket Iam gid" chi hoa hdng cho dai ly ban le qua mffc ldi 40.000-50.000 ddng/binh, vffa tdng thud' nhdp kha'u gas tff 1/1/2012 lai phdi gidm tff dau thang 3/2012 gdp phan dtfa gia gas bdn le len mffc cao nhd't tff trtfdc dd'n nay, bd'i cdnh Tdng cdng ty Khi Viet Nam chiem tdi 80% thi phan phdn phd'i gas, ma mdt nffa Id tff ngudn nhdp khau vd mpt nffa tff ngudn ntfdc
Xd'p hdng thff ve td'c dp tdng ehi sd gia Id nhdm giao thdng vdi tdc tang 1,08% thdng so vdi thdng trtfdc dtfa gid nhdm giao thdng tang tdi 1,98% so vdi cudi nam 2011 vd tdng 38.64% so vdi ky gdc 2009 Sau thdng giff gid xdng dau dn dinb bd't chd'p nhffng tranh cai den mffc "nay lffa" giffa cac cd quan chffc ndng vd viec kinh doanh xdng dau thtfc chat la Id hay lai? Theo dd, du ludn ludn ndm ndp mdi lo tdng gia xdng dau nhtf de xud't cda cdc
dau mdi nhdp khau xang dau Rd't cupc, ngdy 7/3/2012, mac dd vdn chffa cd cau trd ldi xdc ddng ve Id ldi cda doanh nghiep kinh doanh xdng dau nha'l Id cua Petrolimex - doanh nghiep chi phdi den 60% thl phln phan phdi xdng dau Viet Nam ~ nhuYig gid xdng dau dd ddng loai tdng blnh qudn 7,3% gid xdng A92 tang them 2.100 ddng/lil Idn mffc cao ky luc tff trtfdc dd'n la 22.900 ddng/lft vdi ly gidi cda doanh nghiep la 10 ngdy dau thdng 2/2012 xdng dd lo 2.500 ddng/lil, dau Id 2.000 ddng/lft, cdn hoa hdng dai ly dd giam tff 600 ddng/lil hdi thdng 11/2011 xudng chi cdn 350 - 400 ddng/lil vd gid taxi ddng loat tang them 500 - 1,500 ddng/ km Tham chf, Td dieu hanh thj trtfdng ntfdc cdn cho rdng, ddng gid xang dau phdi tdng tdi 4.200 - 6.500 ddng/lil nghTa la gid mdi lit xang A92 da cd the len tdi 26.000-27.000 ddng/lit Mgt mat, Bp Tdi chinh da gidm thud' sud't thue nhdp khd'u xang diu vd mffc 0 - 3% tff 2I/2/20I2, mat
khdc, cho rang tac dpng cua
tang gid xdng dau vdi gia thuye't giff nguyen khdng thay ddi gid xdng dau de'n cud'i ndm 2012 thi CPI cd ndm chi tang thdm 0.85% Thffc td' thl gid nhdm giao thdng thdng chi tang cd hdn 1% nen ed nhieu y kie'n cho rang, tac ddng trffc tie'p vd gian tiep cua tang gid xdng dau diu thdng 3/2012 se chuydn sang thdng 4/2012 Mdc dugid xdngdau tdng ky luc, nhutag gid hlu he't cac hang hod dich vu khdc lai khdng tang manh thdng 3/2012, tham chf CPI thang 3/2012 cua mdt so' dia phtfdng khdng nhffng khdng tang, md cdn gidm nhtf CPI cua Long An gidm tdi (am)l,7% so vdi thdng trtfdc To dieu hdnh thi trtfdng ntfdc cung manh dan dtf dodn Id gid diu qudc te ca nam 2012 chi dao ddng khodng 105 - 112 USD/thffng - tha'p hdn nbieu so vdi dtf doan cda mdt so' td chffc qudc td Id gid dau thd ndm 2012 cd the Idn tdi 150 USD/thung nd'u xung ddt giffa phtfdng Tdy vd Iran leo thang Tuy nhien, tbeo tinh todn cda dng Bdi Tnnh va
(3)NQHieM cdu - TRAO D6|
Nguyen Viet Phong cdng bd lien Sdi gdn liep thj, ngdy 9/3/2012, chi ridng viec gid xang idng 10% nhtf ngdy 7/3/2012 da dnh htfdng trffc tie'p tdi chi so gid sdn xua'l PPI khodng 0.57% vd dnh htfdng gidn tid'p dd'n PPI khodng 1.23% theo dd anh htfdng long ihd den PPI la 1.79% Do dd gid xdng tdng 10% anh htfdng trtfc licp dd'n CPI thdng 4/2012 khodng 0.^5'/, vd dnh htfdng lan lod ldi gid ca chu ky sdn xuS'l sau iff 1.5'7c -2%, hdn nffa cdn Idm gidm GDP gidm tff 1% - 1.3% Cdnh bdo ndy khdng the xem nhe GDP quJ 1/2012 chi dat cd 4% - mffc tdng GDP tha'p nhal kd tff quy ndm 2009 de'n
Ben canh hai mdt hang xdng dau \a gas quy 1/2012 cdn Hep tuc chffng kid'n stf bie'n dpng gid cd cua nhdm djch vu gido due va gid sffa Chi rieng thdng 3/2012 chi so gid nhdm gido due da Idng tdi 1,11% - chi dffng sau td'c dp tang gia cda nhdm nhd d vd vat lieu xay dtfng, tham chi tdng cao bdn cd mffc dp tdng gid nhdm giaothdng So vdicudindm20II, gid nhdm giao due chi tdng 1,2%, nhtfng so vdi ky gd'c 2009 thi gid nhdm ndy da tdng ldi 51.04% -mffc tdng cao thff sau nhdm nhd d va vdt lieu xdy dtfng vd nhdm hang an vd djch vu dn udng Cupc sd'ng cua nhffng ngtfdi thu nhdp thd'p va trung blnh se cdn bi dnh htfdng nhieu hdn nffa khdng chi gid nhdm gido due tdng cao ma gid nhdm thud'e vd dich vu y tdcung se tang cao qui 11/2012 Chfnh phu da cho phdp tdng gid tff vai Ian tdi vdi chuc lln dd'i vdi hdn 400 dich vu y te Rd rdng vide tdng gid cdc dich vu y le' la can thiet gid hidn tai dffdc dp dung tff nam 1995 da trd ndn qud lac hdu va gid nhdm thudc vd dich vu y td'chi tdng cd 11,95% so vdi ky gd'c 2009, chi bang gan 1/5 mffc tdng gid cua nhdm gido due cdng thdi ky
Thi trtfdng sffa ndm 2012 hffa hen sd tid'p tuc ba't dn khdng kdm ndm 2011 va mpt vdi ndm gin day cac bidn phdp binh dn gid sffa van dtfa vdo che dp bdo cdo, ddng ky kd khai gid hay bdc yeu
cau Idng gid cda mpl vdi nhd cung cd'p sffa ddi vdi mpl vdi ddng sdn pham sffa vdi IJ khdng cd bidn dpng yd'u id dau vdo, md khdng cd bipn phdp tdc ddng vdo ngudn gd'c ba'l dn gid sffa Id hicn lffdng chuyen gia vd Ihie'u chd dpng tao ngudn sffa qud php thudc vao sffa nhap khiiu, Irong Ihie'u vang he thdng kidm ira chal Iffpng sffa nh§p khiu
Thj Irtfftng v^ng yCn tinh
Trai ngtf(?c vdi nhffng bie'n ddng manh cda nhidu loai hdng boa dich vu lidu dung, khdng ldp lai tinh irang cdng thing tren thi trtfdng vdng vd ngoai qui cda mpl vdi ndm gan day, thj trtfdng vdng va USD qui 1/2012 lai dien iffdng ddi dn djnh vd yen tinh Chi so gid vang tiidng 3/2012 giam 0,44% so vdi thang trffdc vd gidm tdi 0,91% so vdi cud'i ndm 2011 Cud'i ibdng 3/2012 gid vang dao dpng quanh md'c 44 tridu ddng/lffdng Idng gan 2,3 lln so vdi ky gd'c 2009 va vdn chdnh lech ldi trdn dffdi tridu ddng mdi Iffdng so vdi gid the gidi Ttfdng ttf nhtf gid vdng, thi trtfdng ngoai te cung trim lang NHNN luyen bd ty gid hdi dodi cd ndm 2012 chi Idng khodng 2% - 3% vd dtf trff ngoai hd'i dd tdng nhanh chdng len mffc khodng 20 ly USD - itfdng dtfdng mffc dff trff ngoai hdi dal dinh cao nhffng ndm 2007-2008 Hdn nffa, nhd kim ngach nhap khau cd 24,8 ly USD, chi idng cd 6,9% so vdi cdng ky ndm irffdc, ndn thdm hut Ihtfdng mai ed qui 1/2012 dpi nhidn gidm xudng cdn 300 tripu USD - mffc thdm hul tha'p ddng ngac nhidn nhieu ndm gin day - khid'n cho dp Itfc trdn thi trtfdng ngoai te gidm manh Chi sd gid USD thdng 3/2012 giam 0,63% so vdi thdng trtfdc gidm gan 1% so vdi cud'i ndm 2011 vd gidm tdi 2,38% so vdi cdng kJ ndm trtfdc Nd'u linh blnh qudn cung ky thi gid USD qui 1/2012 cdng chi tdng 0.47%, khdc hdn so vdi tinh Mnh quf 1/2011 sau cu sdc tang ty gid lidn ngan hdng tdi 9,3% vdo ngdy 11/2/2011 Sudt
qui 1/2012 NHNN iri tJ gid hd'i dodi lien ngan hdng d mffc 20.828 ddng/USD ddn nil^a cud'i thdng 3/2012 gid giao dich Ihffc te lai cdc NHTM tha'p xa so vdi bien dd cho phdp 1% vd gia USD trdn thi trtfdng itf Iham chf cd Idc cdn iha'p hdn cd gid giao dich cdc NHTM Dtf bdo gid vdng vd gid USD qui 11/2012 liep tuc phu thupc vdo dien bien gid vdng tren Ihi trtfdng the gidi, song xu hffdng chu dao ed ihd Id lidp tuc dn dinh nhff Irong qui 1/2012 vffa qua
Nguydn nhan quan trpng nhat khien cho CPI thdng 3/2012 idng qud lhap cho dd gid cd cua mpl sd hdng hod dich vu, tff hdng hod chien lffdc quan trpng den thidt yd'u van cd bid'n dpng manh dtfdng nhff khdng phdi la dien bien thi trtfdng gid cd quf 1/2012 da quay trd lai qui ludl tdng iha'p tham chf giam vao thdng sau tdng cao vdo thdng I vd tdc dpng cda dip le Tet cila nhffng ndm cd CPI ca nam d mffc mpt sd ma la sffc cau cd xu hffdng tdng ch$m lai dang ke dtfdi anh htfdng cua lam phdt eao lien luc thdi gian qua vd thu nhdp cua dai da sd cdc hp gia dinh bi tac dpng bdi sff cham lai ciia boat dpng sdn xual, kinh doanh Tong mffc bdn le hang hod lidu dung \a dich vu xa hdi qui 1/2012 theo gid thffc te van dal 569,7 ngan ty ddng, tdng 21,8% so vdi cdng ky ndm trffdc, song ndu loa i trff yd'u id gid thl chi tdng 5%, no'i dai xu hffdng tdng tha'p sudt iii ndm 2011 Hdn nffa so tdng trffdng kinh id khidm td'n 4% cua qui I/20I2 thi cdng nghidp vd xay dffng chi tdng 2,94%, ddng gdp 1,27% cdn dich vu cung chi tdng 5,31%, ddng gdp 2.4%
Thi trtfdng gid cd quf 11/2012 se phan dnh rd hdn xu the tang cham Iai cua cd tdng cung va tdng clu cua ndn kinh td' Nd'u xu the ndy khdng ddo ngtfdc ihi c6 thd thay vi ndi lo sd "dinh lam" se la md'i nguy dinh dd'n vd gidm phdt Ly thuyet vd thtfc tien kinh id'deu chi rang, ddi phd vdi nSi lo thff nhat da khd, nhtfng ddi phd vdi mdi nguy thff hai cdn phffc tap hdn r^t nhidu.•