Đánh giá tác động của các yếu tố tự nhiên và kinh tế xã hội đến biến động sử dụng đất lưu vực suối muội thuận châu sơn la

DAI HOC QC GIÀ HA NĨI TRirỊfNG DAI HOC KHOA HOC TlT NHIÉN BÀO CÀO KHOA HOC De tal Dành già tàc dóng cùa càcu té tu- nhién va kình té - xà hai dén bién dong su dung dàt liiu viec Suoi Mugijhuan Chàu, Sm La Ma so: QT - 08 - 37 Chù tri de tài: TS Vù Kim Chi t^AI HOC t J U O C OiM rlA (NiOl TPjNG TÀM THÒNG UN THU VIÉN \ or/ %3 Ha Nói, 2009 BAO CAO TOM TÀT a Tèli de tài: Dành già tàc dong cùa càcyéu tó tu nhién va kình té - xà hói dén bién dong su dung dàt luu vuc Suoi Muoi, Thugn Chàu, San La, Ma so : QT -08- 37 b Chù tri de tài : TS Vu Kim Chi e Càc càn bó tham già: d Muc tiéu va nói dung nghién cùru: Nghién cùru nhàm khào sàt bién dong su dung dàt a khu vuc dàn toc mién nùi thuòc luu vuc Suoi Muòi, tinh San La vòng 50 nàm qua trén ca sa ùng dung vién thàm va he thòng tin dia ly phàn tich khòng gian Két qua chi ràng su già tàng dien tich dàt canh tàc lién quan dén vàn de suy giàm dàt riing tu nhién va cày bui Nghién cuu su dung phuong phàp phàn tich bòi quy logie da bàc chi càc u tị vàn hồ va tu nhién bao gòm dia hinh, dia chat, càc mòi quan he khòng gian dja ly va su phàn bò khòng gian cùa dàn cu, dàn toc ành huómg dén bién dong su dung dàt Dac biet, nén tàng vàn hoà dóng vai trị quan trgng bién dong su dung dàt Két qua tu càc phòng vàn ho già dinh da chi ràng muc dò tiép càn thi truòng va nhu càu ma ròng dàt canh tàc a càc eòng dòng dàn cu dàn toc khàc dàn dén xu hng bién dịng su dung dàt khàc Do vay, de co dugc chién lugc phàt trién ben vung ó mot khu vuc da vàn hoà càn phài nghién cùru càc mòi tuong quan khòng gian dia ly va dac diém vàn hoà tùng dàn toc e Càc két qua dat dugc : - Ve khoa hge: De tài dà chi thuc trang bién dòng su dung dàt tai khu vuc va càc yéu tò ành huong dén bién dòng su dung dàt bao gòm cà tu nhién va kinh té xa bòi vòng 50 nàm qua - Ve tao : De tài dà tao duac 01 cu nhàn - ve còng trinh còng bò : De tài da còng bò dugc 01 bào dàng trén Hòi nghi Khoa hoc Khoa Dia ly, va 02 bào dàng trén tap chi quòc té lién quan dén ngi dung de tài f« Tình hình kinh phì cùa de tài: tồn bị kinh phi dugc chi cho thuc bién de tài 20 trieu dòng chàn KHOA QUÀN Lt CHÙ TRÌ DE TÀI iGS l£ ^I^cuv, Gittata JucCyy TRUÒNG DAI HOC KHOA HOC TlT NHIÉN CS J Jliii.^^yS ỊSfmn^'iii^'^^ MUC LUC Phàn mị* dàu ChuoTig : Ce so* ly luan va phuong phàp nghién cuu 1.1 Khài niem ve bién dịng lóp phù va su dung dàt 1.2 Tòng quan tài liéu va ngồi nc 10 1.3 Tài liéu Phucmg phàp nghién cuu 12 1.3.1 Tài liéu 12 1.3.2 Phuang phàp nghién cuu 12 Chuoìig 2: Dac diém tu nhién, kinh te - xà ho! khu vuc 14 2.1 Vi tri dia ly 14 2.2 Diéu kien tu nhién 14 2.2.1 Dia chat - Dia hinh - Dja mao 14 2.2.2 Khi hau - Thuy vàn 14 2.2.3 Lóp phù thuc vat 14 2.3 Diéu kien Kinh té - Xà hòi 15 2.3.1 Dac diém Dàn cu-Dàn toc 15 2.3.2 Dac diém Kinh té - Xà hòi 16 r r Chucng 3: Phàn tich bién dóng lóp phù va su dung dàt 18 3.1 Thu thap dù liéu 18 3.2 Quy trinh thuc hien 18 3.3 Xày dung bàn dị lóp phù/sù dung dàt 20 3.4 Thịng ké dien tich lóp phù/sù dung dàt 23 3.5 Phàn tich bién dịng lóp phù/sù dung dàt 24 Chuig 4: Dành già mịi tuig quan cùa bién dong lóp phù/ su dung dat vói càc u tị tu nhién - kinh té xà hói khu vuc 26 4.1 Mịi tuong quan chung cùa càc yéu tò tu nhién - kinh té xa hịi dén bién dịng lóp phù/sù dung dàt 26 4.2 Dàn cu, dàn toc va hình thùc su dung dàt 33 Két luan 38 Tài lifu tham khào 39 Phuiuc 41 - Ve còng trinh còng bò : De tài da còng bò dugc 01 bào dàng trén Hòi nghi Khoa hoc Khoa Dia ly, va 02 bào dàng trén tap chi quòc té lién quan dén ngi dung de tài f Tình hình kinh phi cùa de tài: tồn bị kinh phi dugc chi cho thuc hien de tài 20 trieu dóng chàn KHOA QUÀN Lt CHÙ TRÌ DE TÀI il- U''V_- VA y'^ f^.U ( ^ ^ f b5 7? f^lnOi^ Gu4a^^ lucuo TRUÒNG DAI HOC KHOA HOC TU NHIÉN »H6 HI^U TRUONG A GS.T ÌH.ufịyi^m ỊSC^nj^tU-^i^ ABSTRACT a Project title: Assessment of the physical and naturai factors on the land use change in the Suoi Muoi catchment, Thuan Chau, Son La b Project leader: Dr Vu Kim Chi e Project members: d Aìms and research contents The research has examined the mechanisms of land use change during the last 50 years in the Suoi Muoi catchment, Son La province, in the NW mountain of Vietnam, where is characterised by a remarkable ethnic diversity, mainly living from farming activities Land use and land cover changes were detected from aerial photos The results showed that increasing land demand lead to a significant decrease of the forest and shrub land in favour of upland field Logistic regression techniques were used to detect which variables are correlated with observed land use change pattems This analysis revealed that both from biophysical parameters such as topography, lithology and cultural factors were significantly correlated with observed land use change Cultural background in different ethnic groups played a role in the change of land use The results from household interviews at different ethnic communities made clear that ethnic groups with a market-oriented strategy were able to increase the productivity of their agricultural practices by adopting new technologies such as sow new crop varieties, breeding new animai species and using fertilisers, resulting in a decrease of land pressure Beside, ethnic froups with a subsidence economy are rather slow in the adoption of new technologies, which results in an increasing land pressure and ongoing shrub-uplandfield conversions The results of this research suggested that in order to reach the goal for a sustainable development in such muhi-cultural environment, cultural chacracteristics and development strategies of different ethnic communities should be taken into account e Results: - Scientifìc results: the project has shown the situation of land use change and the controlling factors including physical and socio-economie factors of these changes over the last 50 years in the study area - Training: 02 BSc students were trained for their BSc theses - Publications: 03 papers were published PHÀN M O BAU Tinh càp thiét cùa de tài Luu vuc suoi Muòi, thuòc huyen mién nùi Thuan Chau, tinh San La mot khu vuc mang dac diém da dang ve tu nhién va vàn bịa Vói dị cao dia hinh dao dgng tu 500m dén 1816m, luu vuc suoi Muòi nàm trén khòi Karst Tày Bàc vói dia hình dac trung bịi càc ho sut, cùa àn va cùa hien cùa càc dòng song ngàm Nàm trén Qc lo vói nịng nghiép ngành san xuàt chinh phuc vu nhu càu dia phuang va càc vùng càn, còng dòng dàn cu - dàn toc song luu vuc bao gịm ngi Kinh, ngi Thài, ngi Mịng, ngi Kha Mù va ngi Khàng vói beh su, phong tue va càc trun thịng cu trù khàc dà tao nén nhùng net da dang ve vàn hồ Mịi mot dàn toc vói trun thịng vàn hồ, phong tue tap quan va dói song tinh thàn khàc sé co nhùng hinh thùc ành huóng dén su bién dòng su dung dàt khàc GIS va vién thàm ngày dang dugc ùng dung ròng rài viéc theo dòi nhùng bién dòi bé mat Trai Dàt, quan li tài ngun va mịi trng, dị nghién cùu hien trang lóp phù thị nhuang va hien trang su dung dàt nhùng ùng dung phò bién nhàt Nhó khà nàng phàn tich khịng gian, thói gian va mị hinh hồ, GIS lai cho phép tao nhùng thòng tin co già trj thuc té cao (Burrough va cóng su, 1998) Càc phuang phàp tồn thịng ké còng cu hieu qua dugc su dung càc phàn tich dia li Cu thè vói càc phuang phàp phàn tich da bién giùp cho viéc giài ' •» r thich mòi tuong quan cùa dù liéu, khàng dinh hay phù dinh càc già thiét dat ban dàu va tao mot y nghTa dja li rat quan trgng Trc su bién dịng hien trang lóp phù va nhùng bién dịi ve dói song cùa càc nhóm dàn toc luu vuc Suoi Muòi, Thuan Chau, de tài dà chgn huóng nghién cùu ''Dành già tàc dong cùa càc yéu tò tu nhién va kinh té - xà hói dén bién dịng su dung dàt hai vuc Suoi Muoi, Thugn San San La " Hien trang su dung dàt va lóp phù se de dàng dugc phàt hien tu tu liéu vién thàm, tich hgp va xù li càc lóp thịng tin qua càc nàm sé dành già dugc bién dòng giai doan nghién cùu, tu dò làm sàng tò mòi quan he giùa bién dòi su dung tài nguyén - bién dòi càc boat dòng kinh té vói su phàn bị va tap qn canh tàc cùa càc dàn toc khàc theo don vi càp thòn bàn Két qua nghién cùu se tu liéu quan trgng giùp càc nhà quàn li, càc nhà lành dao nhu nhùng ngi làm cịng tàc nghién cùu co thè dua nhùng quyét dinh dùng dàn de giàm nhe nhùng tàc dòng tiéu cuc cùa su dung dàt cung nhu phuang huóng phàt trién kinh té dàn toc mién nùi 2, Muc tiéu Muc tiéu cùa de tài dành già tàc dóng cùa càc u tị tu nhién va kinh té r f r r xà bòi dén bién dòng su dung dàt luu vuc Suoi Muòi, Thuan San, San La J Nhiém vu De thuc hien muc tiéu trén, càc nhiém vu càn thuc hien là: - Tìm hiéu ve lich su phàt trién va càc diéu kien tàc dịng tói su dung dàt va lóp phù ó luu vuc Suoi Mi, Thuan Chàu vòng 50 nàm qua - Thu thap càc tài li?u bàn dò, ành mày bay cùa khu vuc giai doan nghién cùu - Diéu tra nịng ho, tìm hiéu ve tap quàn canh tàc cùa càc dàn toc Thu thap càc tài liéu ve kinh té xa bòi, dàn toc, san xuàt nòng nghiép cùa huyen * - Thành lap càc bàn dị hien trang lóp phù - Dành già bién dịng lóp phù - Dành già két qua Pham vi nghién cuu Dòi tugng nghién cùu cùa de tài mòi quan he bién dòng su dung dàt vói càc dac diém tu nhién va xa bịi luu vuc Suoi Muòi, Thuan Chàu, San La Pham vi nghién cùu dugc gi han: Khịng gian: luu vuc Suoi Mi, Thuan Chàu, San La Thói gian: vịng 50 nàm qua Ci/ su du lieu 1) Dù liéu bàn dị: - Bàn dị dia hình ti le 1:50 000 - Bàn dò dia chat, ty le 1:50 000 2) Ành mày bay: nàm 1954 va nàm 1999 3) Dù liéu khàc: - Tài liéu ve diéu kien tu nhién, kinh té xa bòi, dàn toc huyen Sa Pa - Tài liéu ve càc chinh sàch phàt trién ó mién nùi va thuc trang phàt trién kinh té xà bòi huyen Thuan Chàu - Nién giàm thòng ké huyen Thuan Chàu càc nàm gàn day Phucmg phàp nghién cùu De tài su dung càc phuang phàp: - 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Xu, J., Fox, J., Zhang, P, Fu, Y , Yang, L., Qian, J., Leisz, S and Vogler, J (2005) Land Use/Land Cover Change and Farmer Vulnerability in Xishuangbanna Environmental Management 36: 3404-413 doi:IO.l007s{J02fi7-0(»3-0284-ti, Ziegler, A D., Giambcliuea T W, Sutheriand R, A, Nullel M, A,, Yamasam, S,, Pinlhong, J., Preechapanya, P and Jaiarree S (2004) Toward Understanding the Cumulative Impacts of Roads in Agncullural Watersheds of Montane Mainland Southeast Asia Agriculture, Ecosvstems and Environment 104: 145-158 doi;10.l0l6i.agee.2004.0l.0l2 ZingcHi C , Ca.slclla J - C , Manh P H., and Cu, P V (2002), Contesting policies: rural development versus bÌodi\ersily conservation in the Ba Be National Park Area In Castella J C , and Quang D D (eds,), Doi Moi in the Mountains Land Use Changes and Famiing Systems DiOeientiations in Bac Kan Province, Vietnam Agricultural Publishing House Hanoi, Vietnam, pp 249-275 ^ Springer 1001 Il 105 1006 1007 1008 1009 1010 1011 1012 1013 1011 1015 1016 1017 1018 1010 1020 11)21 1022 Ì02;Ì 1021 1025 1026 1027 1028 1029 1030 io;u io;v2 AUTHOR QUERIES AUTHOR PLEASE ANSWER ALL QUERIES Qi Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 Q9 QIO Please check authors' names especially 'Thiha Thiha ' if conectly presented Please check authors' affiliations especially affiliations and if correclly presented Please check section headings if correctly presented Please check tables if correctly presented "(Foresi Department 2003)" and "(Forest Department, Myanmar 2000)" were cited here but no corresponding entries were found in the reference list Please provide complete bibliographic information Ali citations of "Sturgeon et al (2005)" were changed and linked to "Sturgeon et al (2005a)" and "Sturgeon et al (2005b)" Please check if appropriate Hansen (1997) was cited here but no corresponding entry was found in the reference list Please provide complete bibliographic information Figures has poor quality with pixelated text and lines Please provide better quality of the said figure The following references were not cited in the text: Andriesse (1989), Wadley (2002), Wadley (2007), Warner (1991), Denevan (1980), Dixon et al (2001), Dove (1983), Dressler (2006), Fox et al (2000), Fox et al (2001), Goldammer (1988), IFAD, IDRC, CIIFAD, ICRAF, IIRR (2001), Chan (1987), Kerkhoft'and Sharma (2006), Lanly (1985), Mertz et al (2008), Myers (1994), Sanchez (1976), and Sanchez et al (2005) Please provide citation Please provide update on the publication status of Leisz and Rasmusscn (2009) Hum Fxol DOI 10.1007 sl0745-009-9249-y Who Counts? Demography of Swidden Cultivators in Southeast Asia Ole Mertz • Stephen J Lcìsz • Andreas Heinimann > Kanok Rerkasem • Thiha * Wolfram Dressler • Van Cu Pham • Kim Chi Vu • Dietrich Schmidt-Vogt • Carol J F Colfer • Michael Eppreeht • Christine Padoch • Lesley Potter t Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2009 Abstract Swidden cultivators are often found as a distinct category of farmers in the literaturc, but rarely appear in population censuses or other national and regionai classifications This has led to a worldwide confusion on how many people are dependent on this form of agriculture The most often cited number of 200-300 million datcs back to the early 1970s, but the source is obscurc Wc assess available, published data from nine countries in Southciist Asia and conclude that on this basis it is not possible lo providc a fimi estimate of the number of swidden cultivators in the region A conservative range of 14-34 million people engaged in swidden cultivation in the region MenzC :) Department ol' Geography and Geology, University of Copenhagen Copenhagen, Denmark C-mail: omi'óigeo.ku.dk W Dressler School of Social Science, The IJnucrsily »>! QuL-cnskntd Brisbane Australia e-mail: vv.dresslcif^^uq edu.au S J Leisz Department of Anthropology, Colorado Slate University, Fort Collins, CO USA C-mail: sleisz@coIoslate.edu A, Heinimann • M Rpprecht Swiss Nalional Centre orCompelcnee in Research North Soulh, Institute of Geography, University of Beme Beme, Swit/erland A Heinimann e-mail: andreas.heinimann((^cde.unibc.ch M Fppreeht c-mail: miehael.epprcchtfi'i tJe.iMiibe.ch K Rcikuscm I-acully of Social Science, ( liKinu Miu l'iii^crsits, Chiang Mai Thailand e-m.iil: kanok(t/ chiangniai ih Thiha Walai Rhukhuvej Botanical Research Institute Mahasarakham University ^aha Saiakluim Thailand ••niail: thihauMiisu.ac.th 'ubiished online: 27 May 2009 V C Pham • K C Vu Centre of Applied Research in Remote Scn>mg and CilS, CARGIS, Hanoi University of Science Hanoi, Vietnam V, C Pham e-mail: pvchanoi(a;vnn.vn K C Vu e-mail: vukimchu'agmail.com D Schmidt-Vogt Naturai Resources Departmenl Asian Inslilulc of Technoloiiy Klong Luang Pathum Thani, hailand e-mail: schmidt(a:ait.ac.lh C i P Colfer Center for Inicrnational Ft)rcsirv Roc.trch Bogor Indonesia c-mail, e.colferVi cgiar.org C Padoch InsiiiuIc of Ijconomic Butans The Ne\^ Voik BoLniical (iaiJcn, The Bron\ NV USA c-mail: cpadochiù.n\bg.org I Potter Australian National ni\eiMl> Canbeira Australia c-mail: Icsiev pollerà anu ediiau '•'AJ Springer Hum tcnl isuggcsted, however We arguc that along with improved knowledge of swidden livelihoods, there is an urgenl need lodevelop techniques that will allow for better estimates of jwidden populations in order to secure appropriate rural development and poverty reduction in swidden areas Keywords Shifting cultivation • Population • Census • Southeast Asia Introduction Swidden cultivators appear in much of the literaturc on fanming in the tropics as a distinct group of famiers often associated with specifìc ethnic èroiJps, and often living in sparscly populated upland areas and in conflict with the inlercsts of other land uscrs, especially thosc in the forestry sector There also have been many attempts at classifying swidden cultivators into various categories, partly to counter the negative opinions of swidden land use by distinguishing, for example, between "integrar' and *'partial" swiddeners (Conklin 1957) and ''shifted" versus "shifting" cultivators (Myers 1992) The idea is that "integrai swiddeners" and "shifting cultivators" are people who have used swidden for generations and therefore have systems well-adapted to their environment, whereas the "partial" and "shifted" are people either focusing more on olher parts of the fanning system or who have become swiddeners by nccessity rather than choice (and therefore are more likely to dcgrade the environment) Whether these classitìcations hold can be discussed (Mertz et ol 2009), bui in the analysis of these issues an important parameter is often missing: how many people are involved in these different types of swidden activities and how much land is affccted by their activities? The latter will be addresscd in another article in this issue (Schmidt-Vogt et al 2009), while this article focuses on the (lack of) swidden demographic data One ofthe difficulties linked to assessing the number of swiddeners is that officiai censuses usually group practilioners of swidden/fallow systems into the category "farmers," which does not recognize the specifìc land use and naturai resouree management practices that they utilize Addilionally, they are typically mcrged with others who use very diftcrent cultivation practices and the diversity of livelihoods in rural areas whcrc swidden cultixalion is found— as demonstrated elscwhcrc in this issue (Cramb et al 2000y further complicatcs bolli the demographic and land Lisc'covcr classification excrcises People who niight idcnify themselves or by others be identified as swiddeneis are )ftcn engaged in a range of olher activities such plantation igriculturc, permanent cash cropping and off-fami jobs that conlributc more to household incoine than swidden Stringer cultivation In this article a swidden cultivator is dcfined as a person belonging to a hou.sehold ihat practices swidden and derives—either in real or perceived lerms—an important part of their subsistence income from s\\ idden cultivation For a dcfmilion of swidden cultivation please see the introduction to tliis special issuc (Mertz et al 2009) An additional complication is that any data regurding the number of swiddeners will always be outdated by the time it is published as they are a ver>* dynamic and constanlly changing group especially in recent decades Even though state policies on swidden cultivation may bc driven mainly by other factors (Fox et al- 2(J0*^>) we belicvc that knowledge of ihis number at differeni poinis in time is a prerequisite for developing useful scenarios for future development of areas currently dominated by swidden cultivation In cases where such basic information is unavailablc, planncrs and policy-niakcrs have no sound basis for dccisions on land use, li\elihood improvcmcnls and environmental management in what are often the pooiest regions of their countries The purpose of this article is to re\icw ihc evidence available regarding the number of people dependent on swidden cultivation The study lakes a pt)int of dcpciilurc in global datasets and then focuses on Soulhcasl Asia lo assess the data available for each countiy in that region The article is based on data derived mainly troni the scientific lilerattire and published reports from the region, The broader intent is to providc input to u regionai assessment of the cuncnt practice o\' suidtlcn thai may assisi in identif>'ing research gaps and necds in Southeast Asia and which may be applied to other regions ofthe world where similar situations exist The Global Populution ofSwidden Cultivators The reliability of estimates of the number of people depending on swidden cultivation has frec]ucntly been questioncd (Byron and Amoltl 10Qt>- Mei1z ei al 200S; Padoch et al 2007; Sanchez et al 2005) Thcrc are numerous references in the literaturc to hou many people are dependent on swidden worldwide but few of them — when looking carefully at the data sources—are cmpirically based assessments Figures range from 40 million to one billion and Table i shows a selection oi sources and the data thcv cilc Tracing back to the cited sources often leads to a "dead end" without any apparcnl empirica! data to support the staicments The estimate of 500 million swiddeners from the I9!S0s comes from a UNf-P FAO study in 19S2 It is based on a rough estimale ofthe global forest-fallou land and the asstim,-)tK)n that a\eragc fallow periods are years and the average tamilv' size is six people in the 90 countries covered b> the studv in I9S0 (l,anly JrnllD 10745 AniD 9249 Proof# • 06/05/2009 Ecol tibie I The evolution of estimaics ofthe number of swidden culiiviiore worldwide Reference Estimate, million swiddeners Source ofdata Swchcz et al (2005) 37 Cites Dixon et al (2001)—however the number appears not to be available in this reference IFAD É-ffl/ (2001) Possibly 1,000 Noi indicated Dupriez and dcLeneer(2o01) Kleimann et al (19%) Myers (1994) 300 Not indicated >300 (Andriesse and Schelhaas 1987) 300 Cites Denevan (I98t)), who, however, only provides data for Latin America Wanier(iy9l) 250 300 (Myers 1980; Russell I98S) Andriesse (I98'J) 300 Not indicated Goldammer (I^SX) 500 Lanly (1085) Russell (I9XH) Cites Anonymous (1087) for 1987 number Andriesse and Schclhaas(iy87) Anonytnous (I9S7) 200 in 1957 300 in 1987 300 300 (Fortmann I0K6) Not indicated Myers (I0K6) 250 Not indicated Fortmann (1486) 300 Noi indicated Lanly (1^85) 500 Dove (1983) 240 300 Based on eslimate in FAO/UNHP study (Sanchez 1976) llartmanns (1081) 300 Not indicated Sanchez (W76) 250 (Hauck 1974) Haiick(1974) 250 Not indicated Conklin (1063) 200 FAO Staff (1057) FAO Staff (105 7) 200 Not indicated I9N5) Although it is the best eslimate made so far in the literaturc, the figure will have changed significantly during the last 25 years The figures of 250-300 million have been rcpcatcd in a large number of articles and go back to the early 1970s, but as can be seen from the table, the empirical origin is obscurc Sanchez (2005) argues that the number of swiddeners today is much lower, but cites a study which appears not to mention any figures on swidden cultivation (Dixon et al 2001) This may be caused by a mistake in the reference Contrary to this statement, a joint publication of several research centcrs and donors consider the 250-500 million a conservative estimate and suggesl that as many as one billion people may rely direcily or indircctly on sv\iddcn cullivalion (IFAD et al 2001) As a mattcr of fact wc have found no studies on the global swidden population since 1980 M>ers suggested an annual growth rate in 1985 of 3-7% m the number of swiddeners worldwide, but did not cite the origin of this figure It appears lo be based on general figures for population growth in rural communities of developing countries, but does not account for deagrarianization processes and migration lo urban areas, which may have led to a decline in the number of people relying on swidden The nel conscquenccs of rural population giowth on the one band and deagrarianization, rural-urban migration on the other are in fact rarely treated in the literaturc for swidden areas Smallholdcr land use inlensifieation and large scale conversion of swidden lands will also drive swiddeners to other land use activities, but it seems that the rwo recent and rather extremc figures in Table (37 and 1,000 million) have extrapolated swidden population trends based on one or a few parameters (e.g population grovvih) without considering other devclopmcnts that work in the opposile direction (e.g rural-urban migration) While the global data are obviousK inadequalc to get an idea of the number of people relying on sw idden loday, it should, in principlc, be easier to obtam regionai and locai estimates In the following section, we closely examine available regionai and locai data from Southeast Asia, and identify the gaps in data and research nceded to auivc at a reliable estimate for the region The Swidden Population of Southeast Asia The number of swidden cultivators in Southeast Asia has been debated in several works, bui most studies refrain from providing numbers Spencer (1966) estimated that in the 1960s some 50 million people made a living from swidden cultivation in Soulhcastem Asia, which in his assessment includcd much o^ South Asia, southern China and New Guinea The F.AO has published ''gucsstimales" on people dependent on forests in ihc Asia-Pacific region in the 1990s, arriving at a total of 481-579 million people of which 149-189 million are in Southeast Asia, including Yunnan, China (Ma 1994) Another study estimates that 500-600 million people were living in or near foresi reserves in Asia in the early 1990s (Lynch and Talboit 1995) and a similar estimate is found in a recenl ICIMOD report suggesting ihal Ihere are 400 million forest dependent people in Asia most of vvhom practice some form of swidden cultivation (Kerkhoff and Sharma 2006) These data are now being complemented by the global project "Poverty and Environment Neivvt)rk (PEN)"' facilitated by CIFOR that aims to understand how forest use and dependency can hcip reduce poverty (CIF(^R 2007) Flowcvcr the number of people dependent on forests or living near forests docs not equiite to the number of swidden cullivjtors (tìvriHi and Aiintkl l'''/*M and this is "^j S['rinfJLT Hum Fcol fcjterated in the PEN work where "swidden agriculturalists" ife only one of six categories of benefieiaries of forest products (Cavendish 2003) Hence, the regionai estimates abovc may not bc very useful proxies for the present assessment Wc therefore take a country by country approach and cvaluate published data from each country and identify data gaps, which need to be addressed in order to improve the estimates Our use of proxies for swidden cultivators is very conservative as such data often need considerable reanalysis and ground truthing to assess the reliability, which is beyond the scope of this review We define Southeast Asia as mainland Southeast Asia (Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos and Yunnan-China) and Insular Southeast Asia (Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines) Brunei, East Timor and Singapore are not includcd in the review Country Estimates In Myanmar, swidden cultivation has been practiced in the hilly regions by tribal groups (such as Kachin, Kayah, Karen, Chin and Shan) for a century or more, and is stili found throughout the country (Hlaing 2004; Hlun 2007), although ecological and demographic data regarding this land use are largely unavailablc In 1994, Uhlig et at (1094) estimated that 15 million people were dependent on swidden cultivation in the late 1980s, but this was a proxy based on the population in upland areas dominated by the Karen It docs correspond to the FAO estimate of 25 million people direetly dependent on forests (Ma 1999) Hlaing (2004) am've at a much smaller number of 1.5 to two million people direetly or indirectly dependent on swidden cultivation in Myanmar bui no source ofthe data was cited This figure contrasts sharply wìth the govemment statistics cited in Htun (2007) stating that two million families or ten million people are practicing swidden cultivation As it appears, data for Myanmar are highly inconclusive Swidden cultivation has declincd rapidly in Thailand in the past decades and is now mainly found in the northem and western parts of the country dose to the border with Myanmar and Laos The swidden population was estimated to be four-five million people in 1982 but these figures also included lowland farmers who moved lo the uplands to practice pemiancnt cultivation (Srisawas and Suwan 1985) In the late 1990s the swidden population was estimated to bc 1.5 million (Uhlig et al 1994) and more recent census data suggesl that thcrc are only 260,000 people fully dependent on "tiaditionar* swidden cultivation and 560,000 people pailially dependent on swidden cultivators iefì (Departmenl of Social Development and Services 2(K)2) Thosc who were identified as parlial swiddeners ire stili practicing swiddening with fairly short fallows ( S years) In this type of community, some farmers have also y Springc shifted to intensive cash cropping in thcsc cases, the villages' traditional swidden landscape is transforming to a mosaic pattem of traditional and modem farming practices It is not certain whether farmers identify themselves primarily as swiddeners or not but the govemment identifics them as swiddeners as long as they cut and bum fallow areas In Thailand the data suggesl that the number of people depending on swidden cultivation has been halved over a period of 10 years, and the FAO estimate of 12-15 million people dependent on forests in 1999 (Ma 1999) seems not lo have much link to the actual number of swidden cultivators, perhaps because many foresi dvvclling people have changed to permanent famiing In Cambodia swidden cultivation is mainly found in the northeast ofthe country and a rapid decline in swidden land was found between 1965 and 1992 associated wilh a sharp increase in population (Fox and Voglcr 2005) FAO estimates that five-six million people were foresi dependent in Cambodia (Ma 1999), but no olher provincial or counlrywide data appear to have been published on the number swidden cultivators Swidden cultivation is found throughout the uplands of Laos and numerous estimates of swidden cultivators have been made In the early lo mid I990s some sources agree that one-1.2 million people or about 25?o ofthe population were involved in swidden cultivation (Fujisaka hJ9l; Pravongvicngkham 199N) FAO estimates of foresi dependent people in the same years were as high as three million (Ma 1999) Other sources mention that 300,(J00 families in Laos are considered as famiers of forests (Chazee ]^N4) or as parlial or full swidden cultivators cqualing 1.8 million people or 40% ofthe population This is partly corroborated by an estimate of 1.64 million made by Souvanthong (1995), whereas in the late 1990s an officiai Lao govemment Report (MAF 1999; Roder 2001 ) estimated that 25% ofthe rural population, or roughly 150,000 households are swidden cultivators In 2000, it was reported ihal 39% of the total population depcnded on swiddening (JICA and MOAF 2001; Thomas 2005), which, with a total population in 2000 of 5.2 million, suggests ihat thcrc were about ^vo million swiddeners in Laos, in none of tlie eascs is it clear how the estimates were made Toda>, we estimate that approximately 20% of the rural population activc in agriculture or about 800.000 lo one million people are stili involved in swidden practices This figure is based on the analysis oC the 2005 census (Messerli et al 2008) in conjunction with a recently developed land cover nìosaic approach (Messerli ei al 20f)^^j, The land cover mosaics approach, analyzing the spatial coexisteiice of respcetive characteristic land cover tvpcs, alk)ws approximating "swidden landscapes'" on a national lev ci and is combincd with the spatially refereneed village levcl census data of 2005 as well as the agrieulturallv activc population JrnllD 10745_ArtlD 9 Proof;* - 06/05/2009 |n Vietnam swiddening is associated with ethnic minorities living in the northem and centrai highland areas Almost ali Kinh (the ethnic majority) who have moved into Ihe mountains from the delta areas, mostly during the last century, have not taken up the practice, but have coneentrated their farm activities on plantation crops, such as coffee and recently pepper, or are govemment employecs Consequently, it may be possible to gain an estimate ofthe number of swiddeners in Vietnam by looking at the ethnic minority populations in the northem and eentrai highlands Il is estimated that 50 of the 54 ethnic minorities of Vietnam practice, to varying degrees, some form of swidden cultivation resulting in an approximate figure of three million swiddeners in Vietnam (Rerkasem 2003; Sam 1994; Sargent et al 1991) Based on the available ethnicity data derived from the 1999 census (Eppreeht and Heinimann 2004) one could imagine updating the above estimate by considering only minorities who traditionally practice swidden cultivation and reside in the highlands of Vietnam FAO on the other band estimated that 20 million people (*25% of total national population) in Vietnam were dependent on forests (Ma 1999) As a proxy for swidden cultivators, this figure is far too high as it is not possible that 25% ofthe Vietnamese population is stili involved in swidden The entire upland population is around 25 million people of whom only about ten million belong to ethnic minority groups (Cuc 2002; The et al 2004) Moreover, the so-called "sedentarization programme" in Vietnam targeted some 3.1 million people in 1995 of whom L3 million were said to practice "nomadic fanning" and 1.8 million had fixed residence bui stili shifted the fields In 2002, after 30 years of implementing policies on sedentarization, only 33% ofthe involved swiddeners had joined and setlled with "fixed field, fixed residence" (Hoa 2002) Based on the abovc we estimate that cuixent numbers of people practicing swidden cultivation in Vietnam surely is below five million and probably below three million In Yunnan, China, FAO estimated in the mid-1990s that 20 million people were dependent oh forests (Ma 1999), but the forests and swidden arca in the province is rapidly being Iransfomied to other land uses, especially rubber plantations (Quo et al 2002; Weyerhaeuser (^/ al 2005; Xu et al 1999; Xu 2006) The number of forest and swidden dependent people is therefore likely to have declined draslieally since the mid 1990s Thcrc are no available estimates of how many people in the province are dependent on swidden cultivation Swidden cultivation in Malaysia is mainly found in Sabah and Sarawak and only ver>' few Oiang Asli famiers stili practice swidden in Penmsular Malaysia Swiddcnmg in Sabah and Sarawak is mainly practiced by the mote than 50 ethnic groups that traditionally bave inhabited the rural areas, including the iban Bidayuh, Kayan, Munii and Dusun However, it' is rapidly being replaced by other land uses such as oil palm plantations and although eiements of the system are maintained, the degree to which people are dependent on the system is declining (Cramb 2007; Hansen and Mertz 2006; Padoch et al 2007) Specific data on swidden cultivators are not available in Sabah and Sarawak The rural population in Sarawak in 1985 was about 1.2 million (Chan 19S7) and at that time a large majority of these were swiddeners According to the Sarawak Govemment website the population of ethnic groups Ihat used to be predominantly swiddeners was dose to 900,000 in 2005 (hltp:/.vvww.sarawak.gov.inv, vicwed 16-09-2008) and an unknown fraction of these are stili practicing swidden cultivation to a smaiier or larger extent In Sabah the total population was three million in 2005 and the ethnic groups traditionally practicing swidden cultivation made up about half of tliis (Lccte 2008) The largest of these groups is the Kadazan/Dusun, many of whom are now urban based so the number of peopie practicing swidden cultivation in Sabah is well below one miliion FAO estimated four-five million people in Malaysia to be direetly dependent on forests (Ma 1999), but this number has probably decreased in recent years In Indonesia, the areas with the highest population of swidden cultivators are Kalimantan, Sumatra, Sulawesi, Papua and Nusa Tenggara Weinstock (19*M)) cites data from the Ministry of Forestry studies in 1983 and airives at the following figures; Sumatra (without Lampung) 1,310,650; Kalimantan 1,142.350; Sulawesi 1,217,850; Moluccas 93,520; Papua (Irian Jaya) 598.200; West Nusa Tenggara 64,800; East Nusa Tenggara 1,189,850; and East Timor 175,315 The total for Indonesia around 1980 should then be 5,792,535 swidden cultivators (excluding Lampung including East Timor) out of a total population given to be 55.8 million at the time The data are assessed not to be very reliable and the exclusion of Lampung could have been politically motivated to avoid showing that many transmigrants have tumcd to swiddening Moreover, the Sulawesi data inelude an apparently exeessivc 776,850 for Noilh Sulawesi and East Timor data are vciy qucstionablc (Weinstock 19^)0) More recent data quoted bv Sunderlin et al (2000) and drawing on Forest Department statistics estimates that thcrc are 1.26 million households dependent on swidden cultivation Sumatra Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Irian Jaya and the Moluccas, or about 14"-ó ofthe rural population Based on their own estimates that an average forest household is composed of 4.8 household niembcrs this adds up to a total of about miilion shiftmg cultivators in these five aieas (Sunderlin et al 20'K)) Except fi^r the exclusion of Nusa Tenggara this corresponds well with the data from Weinstock; espeeialK if it i^ assuiiied that population tzrowth and abandonmeni ot swidden cultivation eancel '2J Springer ^ h other out and make the number of people dependent on swidden fairly Constant According to the FAO estimates, Indonesia is the country in the region with the most people being dependent on forests, but the estimates are also highly uncertain with a range of 40-70 million (Ma 1999) Moreover, Fox and Atok (1997) pointed to several conftising estimates ofthe swidden population made around 1990 that range firom scven-60 million Looking specifically at West Kalimantan, and employing four different methods, they estimated a forcsl-dwelling population of about 850,000, but caufioned that their census-GIS based approach may need to be adapted to locai conditions if used elsewhere in Indonesia Moreover, forest-dwellers may not always be synonymous with swidden cultivators as sonle areas where short-fallow swidden cultivation is practiced may no longer be classified as forests, and the rapid expansion of plantation agriculture in Kalimantan has most certainly caused a dcclinc in people living in forests On the other band, the estimate of Fox and Atok (1997) is not far from the data cited by Weinstock and a late 1980s population of around one million relying primarily on swidden cultivation may therefore bc a rcasonablc gucsstimatc The most recent census data in Indonesia only identify people as farmers and thus give little information about whether they practice swidden cultivation To extract and verify data from these censuses are beyond the scope of this review article as it would require substantial work with raw data To cxtrapolatc the 1980 data by Weinstock to current figures is also veiy risky The total population in Indonesia has grown to 225 million and if we assume that swidden cultivators stili make up 10% ofthe population, the number would be about 20 million The data quoted in Sunderiin not indicate that this is the case and because of land development with plantation agriculture and other new land uses a high number of former swidden cultivators may no longer practice swidden On the other band, many transmigrants have tumed to swidden cultivation because ofthe diftìculty of sustaining annual cropping on poor soils A fairly safe range would probably bc in the order of five-ten million people stili practicing swidden cultivation Swidden cultivation in the Philippines takes place in many parts ofthe country, but no recent data on the number of swidden cultivators are available Several older sources indicate data for forest dependent people and "uplanders" Cruz et al (I98S) estimated from 1980 National Census Data a total of 14.4 million uplanders in the Philippines and of these 6.9 million occupied tbrestlands (in the public domain and therefore 'lllegally") They note further that of the total population occupying upland forcstlands 5.0 million are "tribal" Filipinos and 1.9 million are migrant Filipinos Lynch and Talbott (i^S8) give a much higher estimate of alìout 18 million people living in the uplands in aspri ngcr Hulìi Ecol 1988 and the FAO estimate of foresi dependent people is 20-25 million (Ma 1999) It is estimated that the swidden population does not exceed five million and probabK is much lower 15 15 15 iT)! Regionai Estimates 451 The above review highlights the ditTiculty of arriving at a reasonable estimale of swidden cultivators in Southeast Asia, because the data are not available at country Icvel The figures presented in Table should therefore be taken wilh great care and they are deliberatcly presented as rangcs for most countries The regionai minimum estimate of 14 million people is conservative as il is the sum of lower estimates for each country and does not include soulhem China and Cambodia The upper estimate of 34 million may be excessi ve as the rangcs for several countries are very unceilain Based on published data it is thus not possible lo get closer to the '"real" number of swidden cultivators in Southeast Asia, bui it is likely lo be found within ibis rather broad range Conclusion and Research Needs We have shown that there is a surprising lack of conclusive data on the number of people involved in swidden cultivation in Southeast Asia today Such data are essential if development in rural areas currently and formerly dominated by swidden cultivation is to achieve the intemational goals of reducing poverty and strengthening locai livelihoods Without an adequate understanding of how many people are using swidden cultivation on how Table Suminar> o f bcsi-bcl contcniporar\ country csiini;iics o f i peuplc involved in swidd^-n cultivation in St)uliiea:>t AMU based on the sources quoted in ihe text and compared lo lolat population Countn Fshinale milMon Tolal population estimates swiddeners in 200"^' m i l l i o n people Myanmar IO 48.8 Thailand 0.7-1 C3.X t Cambodia No estimate 145 Laos 0.8 5.9 Vietnam S5,l Yunnan, C hina No estimale 42')'> (2000 populaiion censuM 42 t2, Malaysia 26.6 12 Indonesia IO 225.16 t2 PhllippiMCb 87.9 l2 Rt:(jl()\ (14 3-41' 60 i I 12, •" VVithouI Vunnan ( amliodia Brunei and ba^I rirnor ''Based on w'.•• v' \Mi!ldi';iiik i>;i: accessjd 14 Oeiober HiH)^ J m l l D 10745_ArtlD 9 Procf# t - 06/05/2009 In^an area, development organizations will be working in ihe dark and could propose solutions that are not viable Olher than the technical and statistical problems related to "counting" swiddeners, there may also be significant jiidden agendas involved as it is not always in the interest ofgovemmcnts—many of which have outlawed swidden cultivation—to publish numbers that may recognize the presence of an "illegal" group of land users The dual problem of who counts as swiddeners and who is responsible for counting them has caused the cuirenl situation of data gaps Thcrc are, however, a range of promising methods for obiaining more knowledge about swidden populations The methods proposed by Fox and Atok (1997) to assess the number of forest-dwelling people have, to our knowledge, noi been replicated anywhere in the region Combining remote sensing data, demographic data, ethnographic «tudies, and spatial information databases would make it possible to obtain a better picture ofthe number of people depending fully or partially on swidden cultivation for their livelilioods The "land cover*' mosaic approach presented by Messerli et al (2009) holds the potential to approximate "swidden landscapes" over large areas based on existing remotely sensed national land cover datasets By overlaying census data at village level onto these mosaic landscapes, an estitnate ofthe population occupyitig such landscapes is oblaincd and will most likely be the best approximation of a predominantly swidden based population (Messerli et al 2009) Using national censuses, household incomc and expenditure surveys and agricultural censuses alone may not be adequate as they ali contain information that may identify possible swidden cultivators, but they seldom identify them direetly Another possible approach could be to consider average agricultural land per capita from agricultural censuses combincd with ethnographic information from population censuses The combination of such village aggregates of different censuses coupled with an expansion of the spatial analysis techniques mentioned above to include temporal change detection dimension holds the due for more reliable estimates in the future as well as the devetopmcnt of scenarios for change in swidden populations Further exploitation of census and household survey infomiation coupled with locai case study knowledge may ultiniatcly result in more reliable cstimations ofthe degrcc of dependency on sw idden cultivation and go beyond a binary swidden/no swidden assessment However, this wi!l require a continued dcvelopmenl of our knowledge of swidden livelihoods and the multiple drivers and consequences of swidden transitions lo olher land use syslems as 3utlincd in olher articlcs of this special issuc (Bmun et al -009; 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234-253 doi:lO.Hi|6 j.agsv 2O05,n6,0OS Xu J C (2006) The Politicai, Social, and Eeohtgical Transformation of a Landscape—the Case of Rubber in Xishuangbanna, China Mountain Research and Development 2(i 254-262 doi:Mi 1659 0276-4741(2006)261:54 T P S \ F T ] : f ) ( 0:2 Xu J., Fox J Lu X,, Podger N., Leis/ S and Ai \ (1999), Effeets of Swidden Cultivation State Policies, and Customai-y Institutions on Land Cover in a llani Village Yunnan China, Mountain Research and Developnienl 19: 123 132 doi: lu ì u " 3674253, Zicgler, A, D Bruun T B , Lawrence D., and Nguyén T L (2009) Environmenlal consequences ofllie dcinise in swidden agneuiluie in Montane Mainland SE Asia: h; drology and geomorpholngy Human Ecology this issue £_j Spnngt AUTHOR QUERIES AUTHOR PLEASE AJVSWER ALL QUERIES Ql Please check affiliations if presented correctly Q2 Sanchez (2005) was cited in the text but not found in the reference list Please provide complete bibliographical data Q3 References list items Bruun et al 2009, Cramb et al 2009, Fox et al 2009, Mertz et al 2009, Messerli et al 2009, Rerkasem et al 2009, Scliinidt-Vogt et al 2009, and Ziegler et al 2009 had the comments "this issue" Please provide volume number and page range if already available ^^ PHIEU DANG KY KÈT QUA NGHIÉN CÙU KH-CN Tén de tài: Dành già tàc dòng cùa càc yéu tó tu nhién va kinh té - xà hói dén bién dóng su dung dàt luu vvc Suoi Muoi, Thuan Chàu, San La Chù tri de tài: TS Vù Kim Chi Ma so: QT-08-37 Cor quan chù tri de tàirTrucmg Dai hoc Khoa hoc Tu nhién, DHQGHN Dja chi: 334, Nguyén Trai, Thanh Xuàn, Ha Noi Tel: 38581420 Cor quan quàn ly de tài: Tnrcmg Dai hoc Quóc già Ha Nói Dia chi: 144, Xuàn Thuy, Càu Giày, Ha Noi Tel: 37548664 TÓng Itinh phi thuc chi: 20.000.000 dóng chàn Trong do: - Tir ngàn sàch Nhà nude: 20.000.000 dong - Kinh phì cùa trmg: - Vay tin dung: - Von tu : - Thu hói: Thịi gian nghién cihi: 12 thàng Thòi gian bàt dàu: 03/2008 Thòfi gian két thùc: 03/2009 Tén càc càn bị phói hop nghién curu; SÓ dàng ky de tài So chiing nhàn dàng ky két qua nghién cùu: Ngày: Bào màt: a Phó bién rịng rài: x b Phó bién han che: e Bào màt: Tom tàt két qua nghién cuu: - Ve khoa hoc: De tài da chi thuc trang bién dong su dung dàt tai khu vuc va càc yéu tò ành huong dén bién dong su dung dàt bao gòm cà tir nhién va kinh té - xà hòi vòng 50 nàm qua r Vé tao : De tài dà tao duoc 01 cu nhàn - Vé cịng trinh cóng bị : De tài dà cịng bị dugc 01 bào dàng trén Hói nghj Khoa hoc Khoa Dia ly, va 02 bào dàng trén tap chi qc té lién quan dén nói dung dà tài Kien nghi vé quy mó va dói tuong àp dung nghién curu: De tài dugfc thuc hién ò càp dia phuang mot luu vuc, tuong duong voi mot huyén mién nùi Tuy nhién, de co cài nhìn tịng thè vé cà khu vuc mién nùi Viét Nam thi de tài càn dugc ma ròng pham vi lành thò nghién cùru i MinA GS.TS^H.JT ... 800m dén lOOOm, bàn Khan Lay, bàn Nong Lào, bàn Huòi Tàt (xà Phòng Lai) Dò cao lOOOm dén 1200m bàn Chàn (xa Phịng Lang) + Nguói Kinh tap trung ó vùng bang pbàng, thuan lai cho san xuàt nòng nghiép... khai hoang thành dàt canh tàc Vào dàu nhùng nàm 60, nhùng dồn ngi Kinh dàu tién tù di xi xày dung kinh té mói, dugc su giùp cùa bà càc dàn toc nhùng nguói Kinh thành lap trai, dàn dàn òn djnh cuòc... biét Ngi Kinh ln dàn dàu càc boat dòng kinh té, ké tù thuc hien chinh sàch kinh té thi truóng, thu nhàp cùa nguói Kinh tàng dàng ké, hg co nhiéu thay dịi va boat dịng phù bop vói nén kinh té mó,