Research on developing sustainable and climate-resilient livelihood in Giao An commune, Giao Thuy district, Nam Dinh province

Therefore, the thesis focuses on analyzing the following parts (1) the current situation of livelihood in Giao An commune through assessment of assets (concentration on agricultural an[r]

VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY

NGUYEN HOAI THU

RESEARCH ON DEVELOPING SUSTAINABLE AND

CLIMATE-RESILIENT LIVELIHOOD IN GIAO AN COMMUNE, GIAO THUY DISTRICT,

NAM DINH PROVINCE

MASTER’S THESIS

VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY

NGUYEN HOAI THU

RESEARCH ON DEVELOPING SUSTAINABLE AND

CLIMATE-RESILIENT LIVELIHOOD IN GIAO AN COMMUNE, GIAO THUY DISTRICT,

NAM DINH PROVINCE

MAJOR: CLIMATE CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT CODE: 8900201.02QTD

RESEARCH SUPERVISOR: Prof DSc TRUONG QUANG HOC

Dr KOTERA AKIHIKO

PLEDGE

I assure that this thesis is the result of my research and has not published The use of other research results and other documents must comply with regulations The citations and references to documents, books, research papers and websites must be in the list of references of the thesis

Author of thesis

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PLEDGE i

TABLE OF CONTENTS ii

LIST OF TABLES iv

LIST OF FIGURES vi

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS vii

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS viii

CHAPTER INTRODUCTION

1.1 The necessity of research

1.2 Research objectives and tasks

1.2.1 Research objectives

1.2.2 Research tasks

1.3 The research questions and hypotheses

1.3.1 Research questions

1.3.2 Research hypotheses

1.4 Objects and scope of the research

1.4.1 Research focus

1.4.2 Research scope

1.5 Literature review

1.5.1 Studies at the international level

1.5.2 Studies at the national level

1.5.3 Studies in the research site 10

1.6 Overview of the research site 11

1.6.1 Natural features 11

1.6.2 Socio-economic features 13

1.6.3 General assessment of natural, economic and social conditions 15

1.7 Theoretical basis 16

1.7.1 Some concepts 16

1.7.2 Some important contents 17

1.7.3 Research framework 21

CHAPTER METHODOLOGY 22

2.1 Approaches 22

2.1.1 Systematic and interdisciplinary approach 22

2.1.2 Combined top-down and bottom-up approach 23

2.1.3 DFID's sustainable livelihood framework approach 23

2.2 Research methods 23

2.2.2 Collecting primary data 25

2.2.3 Data processing 28

CHAPTER RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 30

3.1 Current situation of livelihood of Giao An commune 30

3.1.1 Main livelihood activities 30

3.1.2 Analysis of livelihood assets 34

3.1.3 Measurement and evaluation of livelihood assets 62

3.2 Climate variation in the research site 63

3.2.1 In the past 63

3.3.2 Climate change and sea level rise scenarios for Giao An commune 70

3.3 Impacts of climate change on main livelihood activities of Giao An commune 71

3.3.1 Climate change impacts on production activities 72

3.3.2 Climate change impacts on income 79

3.3.3 Climate change impacts on daily life 79

3.3.4 Climate change impacts on health 80

3.3.5 Climate change impacts on infrastructures 80

3.4 Resilience to climate change of Giao An commune 82

3.4.1 Resilience to climate change of households in Giao An commune 83

3.4.2 Resilience to climate change of local authorities 85

3.5 Solutions for developing sustainable and climate-resilient livelihoods 88

3.5.1 Proposed principle 88

3.5.2 Groups of solutions 89

CHAPTER CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 95

REFERENCES 97

LIST OF THE AUTHOR'S PUBLICATIONS 100

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1.1. Demographics by hamlets of Giao An commune in 2017 14

Table 1.2 Opportunities and difficulties in natural, economic and social conditions .15

of Giao An commune Table 1.3. The criteria of climate-resilient livelihood 20

Table 2.1. Number of households need interviewing by each hamlet 26

Table 2.2. Reasons for doing many works and jobs at the same time of the survey .27

respondents Table 2.3. The score classification of livelihood assets 29

Table 2.4. Table of converting percentages into scores 29

Table 3.1. Livelihood assets assessed by the author 34

Table 3.2. The educational level of survey respondents 35

Table 3.3. Sources survey participants gained agricultural production experience 36 Table 3.4 Seniority in agricultural and fishery production activities of surveyed .37

subjects Table 3.5 Survey participants self-assessed the level of confidence in their .37

occupational skills Table 3.6. Information channels on climate change that respondents received by 38

Table 3.7. The definition of climate change was given by the survey participants 38 Table 3.8 The causes of climate change were identified by the survey participants .39

Table 3.9 Surveyed households self-assessed the importance level of the Commune Agricultural Production Steering Board, Cooperative, Farmer's Association to their .41

production activities Table 3.10 Surveyed households self-assessed the importance level of other .43

organizations and unions to their production activities Table 3.11. Statistics of types of land according to many different purposes 45

Table 3.12. Surveyed households assess the quality of land and water they used 47

Table 3.13. Surveyed participants assessed the role of mangroves 49

Table 3.14 Difficulties/challenges faced by mangroves and mudflats in the opinion .49

of the survey participants Table 3.15 The percentage of house types that the survey participants were living .50

in Table 3.16. The percentage of appliances was owned by surveyed households 51

Table 3.17 Assessment of households participating in the survey on infrastructure .56

Table 3.18 Assessment of survey respondents about extreme events that have .66

occurred in Giao An commune in recent year

Table 3.19 Assessment of survey respondents about the frequency of extreme .66

events in Giao An in recent year

Table 3.20 Assessment of survey respondents about the intensity of extreme events .67

in Giao An in recent year

Table 3.21. The calendar of events about extreme events 68 Table 3.22 The increase in temperature in Giao Thuy district compared to the .70

baseline period under RCP 4.5 scenario

Table 3.23 The increase in rainfall in Giao Thuy district compared to the baseline 71

period under RCP 4.5 scenario

Table 3.24 Seasonal calendar in agricultural and fishery activities of households in .73

Giao An commune

Table 3.25 Assessment of the extreme events and climate change impacts on rice .76

farming

Table 3.26 Assessment of the extreme events and climate change impacts on .77

vegetable farming

Table 3.27 Assessment of the extreme events and climate change impacts on .77

livestock husbandry

Table 3.28 Assessment of the extreme events and climate change impacts on .78

aquaculture

Table 3.29 Assessment of the extreme events and climate change impacts on .79

family income

Table 3.30 Assessment of the extreme events and climate change impacts on daily .79

life

Table 3.31 Assessment of the extreme events and climate change impacts on health .80 Table 3.32 Assessment of the extreme events and climate change impacts on .81

infrastructures

Table 3.33 Summary of the impacts of extreme events by climate change on the .81

livelihood of people in Giao An commune

Table 3.34 Preparations of households participating in the survey before the .83

disaster occurs

Table 3.35 Recommendations of the households participating in the survey to .84

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1.1 Map of disaster alerts in Giao An commune 13

Figure 1.2. The sustainable livelihood framework 19

Figure 1.3. Analytical framework 21

Figure 1.4. Logical framework 22

Figure 2.1. Primary and secondary occupations of the survey respondents 27

Figure 3.1. Different kinds of livelihoods existing in Giao An commune 30

Figure 3.2. Agricultural livelihood activities took place in Giao An commune 31

Figure 3.3. Fishery livelihood activities took place in Giao An commune 31

Figure 3.4. Percentage of survey participants trained in agriculture and fishery 36

Figure 3.5 Surveyed households self-assessed the importance level of local 44

authorities to their production activities Figure 3.6. Survey respondents assessed the quality of their houses 50

Figure 3.7 Surveyed subjects assessed the quality of their household devices and .51

appliances Figure 3.8. The main sources of income of the surveyed households 58

Figure 3.9 Surveyed households and local authorities assessed agricultural and .63

fishery livelihood assets in Giao An commune Figure 3.10 The trendline of average annual air temperature in Nam Dinh province .64

in the period of 1989 – 2018 Figure 3.11 The maximum, minimum and average temperature in many years in .64

Nam Dinh province in the period of 1989 – 2018 Figure 3.12 The trendline of total annual rainfall in Nam Dinh province in the .65

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

CBA : Community based approach

CC : Climate change

COP : Conference of the Parties

DFID : Department for International Development IPCC : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LEI : Livelihood effect index

LVI : Livelihood vulnerability index

MONRE : Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment PRA : Participatory Rural Appraisal

RRD : Red River Delta

SLF : Sustainable livelihood framework SLR : Sea level rise

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Foremost, I would like to express the deepest gratitude to Prof DSc Truong Quang Hoc and Dr Kotera Akihiko, my supervisors, for their enthusiastic guidance, encouragement and useful critiques for my master thesis

My appreciation also extends to all the teachers and staff of the Master’s Program in Climate Change and Development - Vietnam Japan University for their help and encouragement In particular, I would like to thank Ms Bui Thi Hoa for her enthusiastic support during the fieldwork in Giao An commune

I am fully indebted to the officials and people of Giao An commune, Giao Thuy district, Nam Dinh province for providing information to help me complete this thesis

CHAPTER INTRODUCTION

1.1 The necessity of research

Climate change (CC) is considered to be a global problem and the most serious challenge for all mankind In which, Vietnam is one of the countries most heavily affected by CC with major manifestations including increasing temperatures, unstable rainfall, rising sea levels and the changes in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events All not only affect economic development but also create pressures on community, especially agricultural and fishery-based livelihoods which are still highly dependent on nature

The development of sustainable and climate-resilient livelihood is considered to an effective solution that enables solving CC issues, reducing disaster risks and developing sustainably (Ayeb-Karlsson et al., 2015; Tanner et al., 2015; Amin et al., 2018)

According to CC scenario of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) based on RCP 4.5 of The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in 2100, Vietnam's surface temperatures are predicted to increase in a range of 1.9˚ - 2.4˚C in the North and 1.7˚- 1.9˚C in the South while the annual rainfall would commonly increase by - 10% Also, extreme events would occur more frequently and seriously Sea level in the South would be higher than the North at the end of the 21st century If the sea level rises 100 cm, about 16.8% of the total area of Red River Delta (RRD) will be affected In particular, Nam Dinh, located at the southern gateway of the RRD with a coastline of 72 km long and 04 large estuaries (such as Ba Lat, Day, Lach Giang and Ha Lan), is the most vulnerable province because of having the highest risk of inundation (58.0%) (MONRE, 2016)

61.71 km2 In particular, Giao Thuy district has the highest flooded area of about 34.27 km2 (People's Committee of Nam Dinh province, 2011)

Giao An, a commune located in the southeast of Giao Thuy district, Nam Dinh province, is one of five communes in the buffer zone of Xuan Thuy National Park (XTNP) Its natural conditions are very favorable for the development of agriculture and fishery However, with low topography, Giao An is regularly affected by extreme events as well as CC Take typhoon Son Tinh in 2012 as an example It had caused damage to 60% of the hybrid rice area, 100% of the vegetable farming area, 50% of the clam farming area and 80% of the freshwater aquaculture area in Giao An Recently, typhoon No in 2016 caused 100% inundation of vegetables and newly transplanted rice, as well as many aquatic animals in ponds, cattle and poultry, died The total losses amounted to VND 26.7 billion (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2017c) Meanwhile, the main livelihoods of the commune are agriculture, aquaculture and fishing which are closely attached and dependent on meteorological and hydrological regimes of the region Consequently, if there are any negative changes in climate, it can adversely impact the livelihood of people here However, in Vietnam as well as in Giao An, there are no studies on climate-resilient livelihoods

In this context, the author selected the topic "Research on developing

sustainable and climate-resilient livelihood in Giao An commune, Giao Thuy district, Nam Dinh province" The study focused on agricultural livelihoods comprising rice

farming, vegetable farming and livestock husbandry, as well as fishery livelihoods including fishing and aquaculture Research outcomes are expected to contribute more useful information and recommendations for livelihood development in the research site in particular and also to be a source for references to areas with similar conditions in general

1.2 Research objectives and tasks 1.2.1 Research objectives

- The climate variation in past, present and future in the research site are identified;

- The impacts of CC on livelihoods in the research site are assessed; - The resilience to CC of Giao An commune is investigated;

- The solutions to develop sustainable and climate-resilient livelihoods for Giao An commune are proposed

1.2.2 Research tasks

- Finding out the theoretical basis and research results related to develop sustainable and climate-resilience livelihoods;

- Assessing the current situation of livelihoods in the research site (according to human, natural, physical, social and financial capitals);

- Identifying the climate variation in past, present and future in the research site;

- Assessing CC impacts on livelihoods in the research site; - Investigating the resilience to CC of Giao An commune;

- Proposing solutions to develop sustainable and climate-resilient livelihoods for the research site

1.3 The research questions and hypotheses 1.3.1 Research questions

(1) What is the current situation of livelihoods in the research site? (2) How did climate variations occur in the research site?

(5) What are the solutions for developing sustainable and climate-resilient for the research site?

1.3.2 Research hypotheses

(1) Giao An commune has a variety of livelihoods In which, agriculture and fishery are main livelihood activities but the available livelihood assets of people in Giao An commune are limited

(2) Climate change has been presented in Giao An commune and is expected to become more and more complicated in the future

(3) The livelihood of people in Giao An commune negatively impacts by CC (4) The resilience level of Giao An commune is moderate

(5) General solution to develop sustainable and climate-resilient livelihoods for Giao An commune is to raise awareness of local people about CC

1.4 Objects and scope of the research 1.4.1 Research focus

Developing sustainable and climate-resilient livelihoods in Giao An commune, Giao Thuy district, Nam Dinh province

1.4.2 Research scope

- Geographical scope: Giao An commune, Giao Thuy district, Nam Dinh province

- Time scope: The research were conducted from 2019 to 2020 1.5 Literature review

1.5.1 Studies at the international level

a Livelihoods/sustainable livelihoods

Since the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) (also known as the Earth Summit) in Rio de Janeiro in Brazil in 1992, sustainable development has become a common trend that all humanity is working towards Accordingly, in rural development, there is a trend towards sustainable livelihood development including poverty reduction goals

The term “sustainable livelihood” was first introduced in the 1987 Brundtland Report (also known as Our Common Future) of the World Commission on Environment and Development as a way to integrate economy, society, and ecology in a policy framework Moreover, sustainable livelihoods are defined as sufficient guarantee of people's needs including food, money and other assets (WCED, 1987)

Previously, livelihood is understood as a means of earning a living to serve the basic needs of life (For example, food, houses, clothes, medicine ) The concept of “sustainable livelihood” is also understood as an effort to reduce poverty (Krantz, 2001) However, these concepts not cover all aspects of livelihood activities, especially assets that limit or enhance human capacity

The term “sustainable livelihood” continues to be expanded by Robert Chambers and Gordon Conway Livelihoods comprise the capabilities, assets (store, resources, claim and access) and activities required for a means of living Livelihoods are only sustainable when they can cope and recover from shocks, maintain or improve their capacity and assets and provide sustainable livelihood opportunities for successive generations; as well as contribute to other livelihoods at the local or global level and in the short and long term (Chambers and Conway, 1992)

b Climate change and its impacts on agricultural and fishery livelihoods

In the 21st century, CC is a global problem, the most serious challenge for mankind and the concern of most countries In 1896, CC issue through quantification of carbon dioxide contribution in causing the greenhouse effect was mentioned by Mr Svante Arrhenius, a Swedish scientist

In the late 1980s, IPCC was established with the United Nations Environment Programme co-founded (in 1988) to assess "scientific, technical and socio-economic information to allow to understand the risks of CC caused by human activities” (IPCC, 2007) Since then, there have been many international organizations and scientists assessing the impacts of CC on the fields in regions and territories

All studies and deployments on CC have been analyzed and synthesized in reports of IPCC (First Assessment Report, 1990; Second Assessment Report, 1999; Third Assessment Report, 2001; Fourth Assessment report, 2007 and Fifth Assessment Report, 2014) In particular, IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report received the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore All reports conclude that human activities are the main cause of CC and CC has been creating climate shocks for all of humanity, especially agricultural production and fisheries (IPCC, 2007; IPCC, 2014)

In rural areas, the majority of livelihoods are based on natural resources such as agricultural or fishery livelihoods which are very sensitive to changes in weather conditions (Altieri and Koohafkan, 2008; Dzvimbo et al., 2017; Araro et al., 2019) Therefore, any small change in weather conditions can have a great impact on the well-being of rural households in developing countries (Altieri and Koohafkan, 2008; Musemwa et al., 2012; Dzvimbo et al., 2017; Araro et al., 2019) In other words, CC has a huge effect on agricultural, fishery production and livelihood strategies of rural households

c Building climate-resilient livelihoods

Resilience is considered a common research and policy concept in the context of CC adaptation and development on environmental change (Adger et al., 2011)

of CC, the limits of adaptation strategies as well as public implementation Climate-resilient livelihood is defined as the power of all generations to maintain and improve their livelihood opportunities and well-being despite environmental disturbances/fluctuations, economic, social and political This is underpinned by empowerment, by action, placed in dynamic social transitions

According to the working paper of the United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (2015) proposed global policy recommendations that are directly related to climate-resilient livelihoods for developing a more sustainable future including (1) applying the human rights perspective to resilient livelihoods; (2) addressing the root causes of vulnerability thereby enabling the strengthening of the livelihood system; (3) empowering the poor and vulnerable as a key pillar in building resilient livelihoods; (4) assisting those who cannot migrate to places affected by climate stress; (5) policy frameworks in response should include a broader understanding of socio-cultural values (such as identity); and (6) developing robust methods and large datasets to support resilient livelihood support research

“Action research on climate-resilient livelihoods for land-poor and land-less people” project of Integrated Community based Adaptation in the Mekong also mentions the serious impact of CC on the future survival and development of livelihood activities in An Giang and Soc Trang Province especially focuses on women, land-less, land-poor, ethnic minorities and other vulnerable groups Therefore, the project proposes climate-resilient livelihood options for target groups such as azolla (water fern) production, organic mushroom farming, organic onion-based rotational integrated crops management farming, organic bio-fertilizer production… (CARE, 2015)

1.5.2 Studies at the national level

a Livelihoods/Sustainable livelihoods

In Vietnam, there have been many scientific conferences and projects related to sustainable livelihoods such as the workshop "Sustainable livelihoods for ethnic minorities in the Northeast provinces" on December 21st, 2019 in Tuyen Quang province; the workshop "Sustainable livelihood development, sustainable poverty reduction for the period 2016-2020" on March 1st, 2016 in Ben Tre province; the project "Improving the community capacity in developing and demonstrate sustainable livelihood model to less depend on Bach Ma National Park” in Nam Dong district, Thua Thien Hue province in 2020; the project "Green Ecological Light" on November 25th, 2019 in Mai Chau district, Hoa Binh province…

A lot of research on this issue use DFID's sustainable livelihood framework approach through analysis of assets Bui Van Tuan (2015) on the strengths and weaknesses in the livelihoods of communities in Bac Tu Liem district, Hanoi city used this framework and proposed solutions to develop more sustainable livelihoods such as strengthening close cooperation between the authorities and local people; formulating policies to support capitals; creating linkages between production, processing and market-seeking activities; improving the quality of human resources; investing in infrastructure as well as diversifying industries and sources of income Nguyen Hai Nui et al (2018) assessed the degree of forest dependence to develop livelihoods of households were still quite high and the users tended to be less sustainable To develop sustainable livelihoods in the context of limited access to forest resources, policy-related solutions have been proposed

b Climate change and its impacts on agricultural and fishery livelihoods

Increasing soil degradation due to increasing temperature and drought; (4) Increasing erosion process due to increased rainfall and rainfall intensity; (5) Increasing crop losses, reducing crop and livestock yields due to the direct and indirect effects of the increase in average temperature, weather anomalies, extreme events (typhoons, floods, droughts, damaging colds ); (6) Changes in crop seasons (MONRE and UNDP, 2010)

Tran Tho Dat and Vu Thi Hoai Thu (2012) show the impacts of CC on coastal areas, the vulnerability of coastal livelihoods to the impacts of CC, the adaptive capacity of coastal livelihoods to the impacts of CC, and livelihood support to adapt to CC The book emphasizes the important role of household livelihood assets Meanwhile, CC is one of the factors in the context of vulnerability, affecting livelihood assets and thereby changing livelihood strategies and livelihood outcomes of households

Le Nguyen Thu Huong (2014) points out that the livelihood activities of people in Giao Xuan commune, Giao Thuy district, Nam Dinh province are greatly affected by natural disasters and climate change Cultivation, livestock husbandry and aquaculture activities as well as other livelihood activities such as tourism and trading are all impacted by typhoons, heavy rains, floods, droughts In particular, agricultural livelihoods are most vulnerable, followed by aquaculture and fishing

Hoang Thi Ngoc Ha (2015) mentions that CC and SLR have a strong impact on livelihoods of households in Cat Hai Island, Cat Hai District, Hai Phong city such as reducing the area and output of crops - livestock, increasing risks for aquaculture and seafood processing, narrowing coastal fishing grounds, risk of losing salt making All of them lead to loss of household income, increase unemployment, change and find new jobs In addition, CC also adversely affects environmental sanitation and people's health c Building climate-resilient livelihoods

management Developing climate-resilient livelihoods is strengthening ecosystem-based CC adaptation models and community-ecosystem-based livelihood models adaptation to CC

=> Through the studies above, CC is already present and having strong impacts on all sectors and areas in life In particular, agricultural and fishery livelihoods are the most vulnerable and highly affected by CC because these activities are mainly based on nature There have been many studies on the situation of livelihoods, sustainable livelihoods as well as impacts of CC on livelihoods and proposing solutions for developing sustainable and adaptive livelihoods However, in Vietnam, there are still not many workshops, projects or researches related to building climate-resilient livelihoods Meanwhile, this is considered as a constructive boundary object to address issues related to CC, disaster risk reduction and developing in a more sustainable and resilient manner 1.5.3 Studies in the research site

There have been many topics, projects and researches related to CC carried out in Giao An commune in particular and Giao Thuy district in general

The project "Strengthening resilience of Vietnam's coastal biosphere reserves against CC and environmental catastrophe through resource management and sustainable livelihood development" (2011 - 2013) was conducted by Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, the Swedish Embassy The project had an overall objective of improving the resilience to CC and environmental disasters of the biosphere reserve, contributing to ensuring the harmony between conservation and development through enhancing the management of marine resources and the development of sustainable livelihoods for the community

Wetlands Alliance Program (2007 - 2013) supported livelihood development for communities in the buffer zone through the establishment of XTNP Mushroom Club; supporting honey production in Giao An; developing gardens and VAC models in Giao Xuan, Giao An and Giao Hai communes

the buffer zone of XTNP to increase the resilience of people in coastal areas that are most vulnerable to the impacts of CC and natural disasters

Ngo Van Chieu (2012) showed that CC leads to crop failures, increasing disease levels and reducing biodiversity and fisheries stocks SLR also directly affects coastal residents, some households suffer from losses of houses and assets One of the proposed solutions is to set up local disaster warning systems

In 2013, the Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development assessed Giao An as a commune affected by natural disasters such as typhoons, floods, drought and hoarfrost (MCD, 2013) In addition, there is a master thesis by Tran Thi Hong Hanh (2016) who initially assessed the impact of CC on livelihood models in Giao An commune

=> Several projects and studies in Giao An commune have assessed the impact of CC on livelihoods qualitatively However, there are no quantitative studies and full analysis of livelihood assets as well as assessing resilience to CC Therefore, the thesis focuses on analyzing the following parts (1) the current situation of livelihood in Giao An commune through assessment of assets (concentration on agricultural and fishery livelihoods); (2) variations of climate in the last 30 years and trends of CC up to the end of the 21 st century in Giao An commune; (3) CC impacts on livelihoods (including the resilience to CC of Giao An commune); and (4) sustainable and climate-resilient livelihood solutions based on the results The results of the study are to contribute to the theory of sustainable and climate-resilience livelihoods as well as a basis for Giao An commune to formulate appropriate socio-economic development plans in the context of CC

1.6 Overview of the research site 1.6.1 Natural features

a Geographical location

a flat topography and a slope from the West to the Southeast (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2018a)

- The North borders Giao Thanh commune; - The South borders the East Sea;

- The East borders Giao Thien commune; - The West borders Giao Lac commune b Climate

Giao An commune has the characteristics of tropical monsoon climate with distinct seasons: spring, summer, autumn and winter

Sunshine: Every year, on average, there are 250 sunny days, the total annual sunshine hours is about 1,650 - 1,700 hours Especially in 2015, 2016 and 2017, the number of sunshine hours increased dramatically from 1,820 to 1,835 hours, accounting for about 70% of the summer sunshine hours (Department of Natural Resources and Environment of Nam Dinh Province, 2017)

Rainfall: Average annual rainfall is from 1700 to 1800 mm, rainfall concentrates in July, August, September and October with nearly 80% of the total rainfall of the year The day with the highest rainfall is up to 200 - 250 mm Rainfall varies from year to year without decreasing from 1986 to 2015 and does not follow any natural rules (Department of Natural Resources and Environment of Nam Dinh Province, 2017)

Winds and typhoons: During the year, there are prevailing wind directions including Southeast wind blows in summer at a speed of - m/s and Northeast wind does not have a high wind speed but usually causes sudden cold in winter months.On average, each year it is affected by - 10 typhoons with heavy rain and strong winds c Hydrological characteristics

Figure 1.1 Map of disaster alerts in Giao An commune

(Source: MCD, 2013) 1.6.2 Socio-economic features

Giao An is a coastal commune in Giao Thuy district formed by alluvial deposits of the Red River About 300 to 400 years ago, this land was a pristine beach with lots of reeds and muddy With the solidarity, the people of Giao An were together to embank dykes, encroach the sea and implement soil conditioning By the end of 1860, Giao An commune was established, comprising Trung Uyen, Hanh Thien, Xuan Hy, Thuy Nhai, Hoanh Lo, Tra Huong and Tra Lu villages (divided into 16 hamlets) At the beginning of 1972, implementing the Resolution of the Party Central Committee, the Resolution of the People's Council at the commune level, Giao An once again continued to embank the dyke, encroach upon the sea and organized the migration of people to establish hamlets of Dien Bien new economic zone (from hamlet 16 to 22) From a poor commune with previously poor infrastructure, Giao An has been constantly innovating and developing Currently, the infrastructure is gradually being improved, the culture and society are growing along with the good implementation of social security policies That increasingly enhances the material and spiritual life of the people in the commune In 2017, Giao An was recognized as a commune fulfilled the criteria of a new rural area (USAID, 2017) a Economic characteristics

- Agricultural production

vegetables was 70.9 ha, of which the vegetables in Dien Bien new economic zone was 25.2 (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2019)

+ Livestock: According to the statistics as of April 1st, 2019, the total number of cattle and poultry in the whole commune was as follows: 2,448 pigs; 102 buffaloes, cows and goats; 23,177 poultry; and 3,157 other kinds of livestock After the outbreak of African swine fever, many households had shifted their investments to poultry farming; up to now, Giao An had 43,177 poultry (Giao An Commune People's Committee, 2019) - Fishery production

The total area for aquaculture was 669.2 In which, the area of shrimp ponds was 610.2 ha, the area of freshwater aquaculture was 59 The total production of fishery products from catches and aquaculture was estimated at 2,200 tons (Giao An Commune People's Committee, 2019)

b Social and cultural characteristics

In 2017, Giao An commune had a population of 3,090 households and 9,060 people The population was distributed into 22 villages (Table 1.1) The commune has two main religions: Buddhism and Catholicism Of which, Catholics accounted for 31% and 69% was Buddhists (People's Committee of Giao An Commune, 2017b)

Table 1.1 Demographics by hamlets of Giao An commune in 2017

No Hamlet Number of

household

Number

of people No Hamlet

Number of household

Number of people

1 Hamlet 143 397 12 Hamlet 12 155 397

2 Hamlet 152 379 13 Hamlet 13 94 271

3 Hamlet 185 580 14 Hamlet 14 173 474

4 Hamlet 211 638 15 Hamlet 15 106 291

5 Hamlet 158 433 16 Hamlet 16 106 287

6 Hamlet 121 333 17 Hamlet 17 107 373

7 Hamlet 169 483 18 Hamlet 18 146 517

8 Hamlet 253 727 19 Hamlet 19 122 398

9 Hamlet 166 489 20 Hamlet 20 81 265

10 Hamlet 10 124 338 21 Hamlet 21 110 365

1.6.3 General assessment of natural, economic and social conditions

a Advantage

In general, Giao An commune is a land with a lot of silt and alluvium Along with the dense network of rivers and the tropical monsoon climate, Giao An commune is very favorable for the development of agriculture and aquaculture (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2013) Moreover, Giao An is surrounded by mangrove, adjacent to XTNP, which is oriented to develop into a biosphere reserve of the RRD

b Disadvantage

As a coastal commune, Giao An is frequently affected by natural disasters and extreme weather events Of which, hamlets located in Dien Bien new economic zone are located outside the central dyke so they are often affected by floods, typhoons and high tides (MCD, 2013)

Moreover, the ecological environment in some residential areas as well as the field ecosystem are affected by human activities In Giao An commune, the process of treating waste in residential areas has not been synchronized along with the people's habit of using chemical fertilizers and pesticides (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2019) Over 50% of nitrogen, 50% of potassium and about 80% of phosphate were excess, which directly or indirectly caused environmental pollution Besides, the improper and unbalanced use of fertilizers as well as the use of unqualified fertilizers all adversely affected the soil environment Moreover, in the process of production and cultivation, the use of insecticides, fungicides, herbicides mainly used for rice farming also polluted the soil Plant protection drugs used an average of 0.5 - kg/ha/year but in many places in the commune, chemical residues in soil have been detected (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2017a)

Agricultural production activities of Giao An commune are currently facing several difficulties, especially livestock diseases

Table 1.2 Opportunities and difficulties in natural, economic and social conditions of Giao An commune

Opportunities Difficulties

- Accretion of silt -> area was expanded;

Opportunities Difficulties

- The dense network of rivers; - Tropical monsoon climate;

- Mangrove ecosystems surrounding and near XTNP

- Waste, garbage + habits of using chemical fertilizers + pesticides -> Ecological

environment and field ecosystem are affected; - There are still some difficulties in agriculture, especially in livestock husbandry

1.7 Theoretical basis 1.7.1 Some concepts

Climate change refers to changes in climate state that can be known (for example, by using statistical tests) by changes in mean and/or variability of its properties, and that persists for over a long period, usually decades or longer CC may be caused by natural internal processes or external forcings such as solar cycle modifications, volcanic eruptions and anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use (IPCC, 2014)

Livelihood includes capabilities, assets (both material and social resources) and activities required for a means of living (DFID, 1999; 2007)

Sustainable livelihood is a livelihood that can cope with and recover from impacts, stresses and shocks Besides, it can maintain or promote its capabilities and assets both now and in the future without undermining the natural resources base (DFID, 2007)

Livelihood adaptation to CC is a livelihood that must be able to cope with CC/reduce greenhouse gas emissions and recover from CC impacts, especially natural disasters/extreme weather events (storms, floods, droughts, extreme hot weathers, damaging cold…) as well as ensure, maintain or stably increase productivity/output and at the same time be appropriate with local socio-economic capabilities and conditions (CARE, 2015)

From there, this term is defined in the thesis as follows:

Climate change is a change in climate state which includes temperature, rainfall, SLR and extreme weather events over a long period of about 30 years

Livelihood includes all assets (such as human, social, physical, physical and financial capitals) and activities necessary to be the means of human life

Sustainable livelihood is a livelihood that can solve and recover from external stresses and impacts and does not depend on external support Moreover, assets are used effectively at the same time the existing capacity and resources are enhanced

Climate-resilient livelihood means a livelihood can be adapted, reorganized and developed to improve the sustainability of the system, which makes better preparations for CC impacts in the future Climate-resilient livelihood includes strengthening not only the internal capacity of livelihoods (livelihood resources) but also climate resilience 1.7.2 Some important contents

In this section, the thesis presents the theoretical basis of the main contents are (1) sustainable livelihood and (2) climate-resilient livelihood

a Sustainable livelihood

Sustainable livelihood is a livelihood that is able to solve or recover from stresses; maintaining existing capabilities and resources without compromising the natural resource base (Scoones, 1998) Determining sustainable livelihoods requires the following criteria or analytical framework:

- Criteria for assessing the sustainability of livelihoods

Scoones (1998) and DFID (1999, 2007) agreed to give some criteria to assess the sustainability of livelihoods in aspects: economic, social, environmental and institutional

Social sustainability: is assessed through some criteria such as creating more jobs, reducing poverty, ensuring food security and improving welfare

Environmental sustainability: is assessed through more sustainable use of natural resources (land, water, forests, aquatic resources ) without causing environmental damage (such as environmental pollution, environmental degradation ) and able to adapt to external stresses and shocks

Institutional sustainability: is assessed through many criteria such as a fully and comprehensively developed legal system, a participatory policy-making process of citizens, agencies/organizations in the public and private sector work effectively; thereby creating an enabling environment for institutions and policies to help livelihoods improve continuously over time (Nguyen Van Suu, 2010; Nguyen Tho Dat and Vu Thi Hoai Thu, 2012)

- Sustainable livelihood framework

The livelihood framework is a diagram designed to comprehensively consider all the different factors affecting livelihoods, especially the opportunities to shape a human livelihood strategy

Figure 1.2. The sustainable livelihood framework

(Source: DFID, 2001)

According to the above framework, it can be seen that there are two groups of factors affecting household livelihoods The first group relates to the household level, comprising livelihood assets, livelihood strategies and livelihood outcomes The second group relates to factors outside the household, including transforming structures and processes and vulnerability context These elements both play independent roles and interact with each other

Livelihood assets are both tangible and intangible capitals that people have to sustain or develop their livelihoods Livelihood resources are divided into main types: (1) natural capital, (2) physical capital, (3) financial capital, (4) human capital and (5) social capital

(1) Natural capital: includes natural resources that humans can use to carry out livelihood activities, such as land, forests, marine resources, water, air, biodiversity

(2) Physical capital: consists of basic infrastructure systems supporting livelihood activities, such as roads, houses, water supply, drainage, energy (electricity)…

(3) Financial capital: comprises the various financial sources that people use to achieve their livelihood outcomes, including savings, cash, jewelry, loans, incomes…

(5) Social capital: implies the relationships between people and people in the society on which people rely on to carry out livelihood activities, mainly including social networks, members of community organizations, market access…

b Climate-resilient livelihood

Climate-resilient livelihood is a livelihood which when exposed to climate shocks and stresses, has the capacity to resist, absorb, accommodate to and recover from the effects of the shocks and stresses in a timely and efficient manner, including through the preservation, restoration and where possible, improvement of its essential basic structures and functions (CARE, 2015)

Climate-resilient livelihood is a livelihood that meets the following needs (1) sustainable, (2) climate-resistant, (3) gender equality and (4) bring key benefits to livelihood groups

Table 1.3 The criteria of climate-resilient livelihood

Criteria category Criteria

I Sustainable Livelihoods Criteria

1 Economic Compatibility 1.1 Market Demand & Access 1.2 Financial Investment & Risk 1.3 Skills and Technology Institutional Compatibility 2.1 Regulations

2.2 Fiscal Policy 2.3 Program Assistance

3 Socio-cultural Compatibility 3.1 Local/Indigenous Knowledge 3.2 Suitability for the poor 3.3 Suitability for Women

3.4 Suitability for Ethnic Minorities 3.5 Suitability for People with Disabilities 3.6 Location

II Climate Resilient Livelihood Criteria

4 Climate Compatibility 4.1 Resilience to Existing Climate Change & Impacts

4.2 Resilience to Future Climate Change & Impacts

4.3 CO2 Emission Impacts Environmental Compatibility 5.1 Biodiversity Impacts

Criteria category Criteria

(Source: CARE, 2015)

1.7.3 Research framework

The center of the framework is livelihood (including agricultural and fishery livelihoods) assessed by livelihood assets This livelihood is heavily affected by shocks and external contexts such as policies, environmental problems, especially CC Based on the impacts/potential impacts of CC on agricultural and fishery livelihoods as well as the resilience of Giao An commune, solutions to develop livelihoods in a more sustainable and climate-resilient manner were suggested (Figure 1.3 and 1.4)

Figure 1.3. Analytical framework

CLIMATE CHANGE

(1) Rising temperatures; (2) Changes in rainfaill; (3) Sea level rise; (4) Abnormalities of natural disasters and extreme weather events

LIVELIHOOD (Agricultural livelihood;

Fishery livelihood)

Livelihood assets Natural capital Human

capital

Financial capital Physical capital

Social capital

APPLICATION SOLUTIONS TO

DEVELOP SUSTAINABLE AND CLIMATE –

RESILIENT LIVELIHOODS

Policy Science and technology Indigenous knowledge

SHOCKS

ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS

…

Figure 1.4 Logical framework

CHAPTER METHODOLOGY

2.1 Approaches

The thesis used approaches as follows: (1) systematic, interdisciplinary approach; (2) combined top-down and bottom-up approach; and (3) DFID's sustainable livelihoods approach

2.1.1 Systematic and interdisciplinary approach

Systematic approach being a way of seeing the world through its system structure, hierarchy and dynamics is a comprehensive and dynamic approach (Nguyen Dinh Hoe and Vu Van Hieu, 2013) Livelihood is a holistic system and is influenced by many factors such as policy institutions, ecosystems, CC Therefore, this approach helped the author have a systematic perspective on the interactions and links between the elements in the livelihood system

across the subject's boundaries to create new knowledge and theories to achieve research objectives Therefore, the proposed solutions to develop sustainable and climate-resilience livelihoods required the integration of various fields such as fishery; economy; society… 2.1.2 Combined top-down and bottom-up approach

The bottom-up approach otherwise known as community-based approach (CBA) is a sustainable approach and is implemented based on the principle of “Carry out from the community, rely on the community and benefit the community” in order to study the current situation of livelihoods and thereby find out solutions to improve the activeness of people in responding to natural disasters and CC (Vo Trung Tin, 2016) CBA creates flexibility in adapting to CC, taking advantage of internal resources, available (people, means) in the community

Moreover, if both bottom-up and top-down approach was used simultaneously through studying guidelines and policies of all levels, development strategies, plannings, and action plans of sectors and localities, the activities to assess the current situation and develop climate-resilient livelihoods would be systematic and consistent, suitable with the resources of the community as well as the guidelines and policies of the local authorities 2.1.3 DFID's sustainable livelihood framework approach

Sustainable livelihood framework is a visualization tool developed by DFID from the 1990s to understand the different types of livelihoods Its objective is to help users understand different aspects of livelihoods, especially factors that create problems or opportunities (DFID, 1999)

DFID's SLF includes five main components such as vulnerability context, livelihood assets, transforming and structures and processes, livelihood strategies, livelihoods outcomes which emphasize the role of policies and institutions (DFID, 1999; 2007)

2.2 Research methods

2.2.1 Collecting secondary data

The thesis has collected, reviewed, analyzed and synthesized studies, topics and documents related to the methods of assessing CC impacts, principles and elements in the framework of sustainable livelihood development as well as climate-resilient livelihoods as a basis of constructing the methodology and research method of the thesis

The information and data directly related to Giao An commune were collected as a basis for assessing the current status of livelihoods as well as investigating the impacts of CC on the main livelihoods thereby proposing appropriate solutions

+ Data on temperature and rainfall in the period of 1989 – 2018 were measured at Nam Dinh meteorological station; Disaster data collected from 2003 – 2019 were used to analyze and assess CC in Nam Dinh in general and Giao An in particular

+ Reports on socio-economic development in the past years (2015 - 2019): used to extract data related to the socio-economic development status as well as agricultural and fishery production

+ Report on results of the implementation of new rural construction of Giao An commune, Giao Thuy district, Nam Dinh province in 2017: used to cite the results of the implementation of new rural construction

+ Reports on land use planning of Giao Thuy district and Giao An commune with the vision until 2020, 5-year land-use plan from 2011 to 2015: used to quote information regarding the natural conditions of the research site

+ Report on current land use status of Giao An commune in 2014: used to quote data on land in general, area of agriculture and aquaculture in particular

+ Action plan to respond to CC in Nam Dinh province with a vision to 2020: to extract the potential impacts of CC on Nam Dinh province (including Giao An commune) through the scenario

+ Reports, researches, assessments and surveys related to the research site 2.2.2 Collecting primary data

- Sociological research method

The questionnaire for households was designed in the way of statistical analysis and processing through SPSS version 24.0 software (See Appendix 3.1 for details on the questionnaire) This questionnaire was tested for 05 households in the first survey in April 2019 and after that, it was revised and adjusted to suit the local situation as well as the community

Furthermore, selecting the sample (household) was based on the principles of statistical calculation with the non-probability sampling method

* Structure of the questionnaire:

With the total number of households was known, Yamane's formula (1967-1968) was used to calculate the sample size that could accurately represent the total of 3,149 households living in Giao An commune (According to the interview with Mr Pham Anh Tuan - Deputy chief of communal police posts, September 2019) with a margin of error is 10%

n= N/1+N(e)2

After that, the households were selected according to the convenience sampling method with the support of local authorities as well as the help of the village heads to ensure the objectivity and diversity of respondents In particular, the surveyed group was quite diverse with representative socio-economic characteristics

Table 2.1 Number of households need interviewing by each hamlet

(Unit: Household)

Hamlet

Number of households in reality

Number of households to interview

Hamlet

Number of households in reality

Number of households to interview

Hamlet 142 Hamlet 12 152

Hamlet 165 Hamlet 13 95

Hamlet 192 Hamlet 14 175

Hamlet 221 Hamlet 15 107

Hamlet 158 Hamlet 16 107

Hamlet 116 Hamlet 17 112

Hamlet 166 Hamlet 18 149

Hamlet 257 Hamlet 19 121

Hamlet 172 Hamlet 20 80

Hamlet 10 129 Hamlet 21 114

Hamlet 11 133 Hamlet 22 86

In terms of demographic characteristics, 67.0% of surveyed subjects were male and 33.0% were female

Regarding the age structure, men from 18 to 60 years old accounted for 67.2% and over 60 years old made up 32.8% For women, 60.6% were between the ages of 18 and 55 and 39.4% were over 55 years old The interviewed participants were mainly in the working age

Most of the surveyed people (98.0%) had main jobs and only one household was not able to work because of no arable land and no means of production Among them, 58.2% participated in other jobs called secondary occupations

consisting of fishing and aquaculture were the main occupation while 45.6% were secondary occupations (Figure 2.1)

Figure 2.1 Primary and secondary occupations of the survey respondents

(Ratio: %) Regarding the reasons for doing many works/occupations at the same time, 53.3% of survey participants agreed with the reason to "earn more income" Next, "other reasons" accounted for 33.3% of which the most mentioned one was "agricultural for domestic use” Besides, 22.7% was both for the reason "income from the main job is not stable" and "have free time" Finally, "go to work for fun" has the lowest percentage of consensus (5.3%) (Table 2.2)

Table 2.2 Reasons for doing many works and jobs at the same time of the survey respondents

(Ratio: %)

No Reason Valid percentage

1 Income from main job is not stable 22.7

2 Have free time 22.7

3 Go to work for fun 5.3

4 Earn more income 53.3

5 Other reason 33.3

- Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA)

communities as well as agricultural and fishery activities; (3) community capacity of responding to CC The tools were as follows:

+ In-depth interview: The author exchanged and collected information from groups including (1) household and (2) local authorities (See Appendix 3.2 and 3.3 for details on questions of in-depth interview) In which, there were 15 households and 24 civil services participating in an in-depth interview The reason to choose households was that through the interview process, they were open-hearted and had extensive experience in the fields of agriculture/fishery Moreover, they also understood the local activities over the years For the civil services, the information related to the commune, livelihood situations, climate hazards, vulnerability and resilience of Giao An commune were provided Interviewing with local authorities supported the verification, screening and helping the author make the most objective assessment

+ Seasonal calendar: Seasonal calendar provided a timeline of livelihoods as well as identified changes in climate factors From there, the difficulties and opportunities affecting the production activities of Giao An people in a 1-year cycle were investigated

+ Calendar of events (Timeliness): The event calendar focused on the calendar of events about extreme events

2.2.3 Data processing

- Application of SPSS version 24.0 software

Information on the results of 100 households surveyed by the questionnaire was entered and processed by SPSS version 24.0 software

- Application of Microsoft Excel

Data on the temperature and rainfall at Nam Dinh meteorological station were included in Microsoft Excel software to analyze the trend in the period of 1989 - 2018

The current situation of Giao An's livelihood was assessed through analysis of livelihood assets including human, natural, social, financial and physical capital Based on DFID's SLF together with studies on indicators to assess livelihood assets (Li et al., 2014; UNDP, 2017; Yang et al., 2018), and evaluation indicators for Giao An commune were developed (See Appendix 1.1 for details on indicators and descriptions to measure and evaluate livelihood assets)

The scores of the secondary indicators were determined by not only the households participating in the survey but also the leaders of local authorities in Giao An commune Then, the scores of primary indicators were the average scores of them

The value of livelihood assets is assessed on a scale starting from to ending to points The thesis consulted previous studies and classified the score of livelihood assets as well as converted the percentage into a scale as follows:

Table 2.3 The score classification of livelihood assets

Range of mean score Level

0.0 – 1.0 Low

1.0 – 2.0 Low - medium

2.0 – 3.0 Medium

3.0 – 4.0 Medium - high

4.0 – 5.0 High

Table 2.4 Table of converting percentages into scores

Value of percentage (%) Score

0.0 – 20.8

20.8 – 40.6

40.6 – 60.4

60.4 – 80.2

CHAPTER RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

3.1 Current situation of livelihood of Giao An commune 3.1.1 Main livelihood activities

Survey results showed that Giao An commune had 10 different kinds of livelihoods (Figure 3.1) Depending on livelihood strategies, households can carry out activities individually or may be combined with other activities or in combination with other livelihoods

Figure 3.1 Different kinds of livelihoods existing in Giao An commune

In particular, agriculture and fishery were the main livelihood activities accounting for a large proportion of the local economic structure (67.0%) (People's Committee of

Giao An commune’s livelihoods Agriculture

Fishery

Civil service Trading

Making

clothes Freelance

Planting cash crops

Growing mushrooms

Feeding bees

VAC/ Large -scale farm

a Agricultural production

The agricultural livelihood activities taking place in Giao An commune included cultivation (rice farming; vegetable farming) and livestock husbandry (Figure 3.2)

- Cultivation: In 2018, the total rice cultivated area was 400.1 with a yield of 128.09 quintals/ha Meanwhile, the area of vegetable farming was 70.9 ha, of which the crop on the Dien Bien was 20.52 The total food was estimated at 6,120 tons (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2018b) Agricultural products were mainly rice, honeydew melons, pear-shaped melons, watermelons, jicama and some other vegetables

- Livestock husbandry: According to the statistics as of October 1st, 2018, the total number of cattle and poultry in the whole commune was as follows: 3,505 pigs; 33,300 poultry; 252 buffaloes, cows and goats and 3,505 other types of cattle (including dogs, cats and rabbits) The total output of live-weight meat reached 615 tons (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2018b)

Figure 3.2 Agricultural livelihood activities took place in Giao An commune

b Fishery production

Figure 3.3 Fishery livelihood activities took place in Giao An commune Agriculture

Rice farming Vegetable farming

Livestock husbandry

Poultry

Chicken Duck Goose Pigeon

Cattle

Pig Cow Buffalo

Goat Rabbit

Fishery

Fishing Aquaculture

Inland saline and brackish-water

aquaculture

Clams Shrimp

Black tiger shrimp Whiteleg

shrimp Oysters

Freshwater aquaculture

In Giao An commune, there were two livelihood activities in fishery production including aquaculture and fishing (or called exploitation and protection of mangrove) In which, the whole commune had 669.2 aquaculture area and 59 freshwater area The total production of fishing and aquaculture in 2018 was 2,500 tons (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2018b)

- Fishing

Fishing grounds that Giao An’s people catch are mainly nearshore in the buffer and core zone of Xuan Thuy Nation Park Marine natural products are also diversified such as shrimp, crabs, snails, fishes, molluscs including clams, oysters, razor clams - Aquaculture

Aquaculture in Giao An commune was divided into two types: inland saline and brackish-water aquaculture as well as freshwater aquaculture

+ Inland saline and brackish-water aquaculture

The inland saline and brackish-water aquaculture of Giao An commune developed strongly, increased rapidly both in area and production The product categories focused on high economic value species such as black tiger shrimp, whiteleg shrimp, crabs and clams Besides, there were still a few households raising other aquatic species such as oysters Some of the livelihood models in inland saline and brackish-water aquaculture applied in Giao An were extensive shrimp farming/improved extensive shrimp farming and clam farming

* Extensive shrimp farming/improved extensive shrimp farming

from nature In the process of raising shrimp, farmers still can exploit other aquatic species from the wild Typically, the value obtained from natural resources accounts for about 50% of total income When implementing this model, it is necessary to ensure that the mangrove forests cover an average of 30% of the total aquaculture area

* Intensive whiteleg shrimp farming

The model of intensive whiteleg shrimp farming has been implemented locally in recent years It is an introduced species and is raised entirely by industrial feed The time from farming to harvesting is about to months To raise this species, apart fro cleaning the ponds, water is very important The water environment must be artificially treated The breeding process is likely to cause disease due to non-native species as well as poor adaptive capacity with local conditions Although the profit gained from this model is quite high, higher than that of extensive shrimp farming, there are big risks because of high input costs On the other hand, the water from the ponds is discharged directly into the natural environment without treatment This affects the water environment in general and affects other aquaculture activities in the locality

* Clam farming

Clam farming activities in Giao An commune had types including producing baby clams; raising clams and exploiting natural clams Previously, the seed source was imported from other provinces (Thanh Hoa, Nghe An, Ben Tre ), but from 2010 until now, the locality has almost been proactive in seed sources Most of the investment in clam farming is seeds and the feed for clam is completely natural, without adding any other feed However, the requirement in the farming process is not to dredge or cover farming ponds, but instead only use piles and nets to protect the ponds

* Oyster farming

Oyster farming was carried out in mudflats or areas outside the drainage of aquaculture ponds These activities mainly need hard substrates that oysters can lean on so the households wash off the old oyster shells, dry and return to the farming area This is the bottom culture method

Along with the development of saline and brackish-water aquaculture, freshwater aquaculture such as softshell turtles or fishes also have many advantages Many households stocked bass and tilapia… in their ponds In some hamlets in Giao An commune, VAC integrated systems and large-scale farm models have been initially established

* Softshell turtle farming

In recent years, activities of raising softshell turtles in Giao An commune have been developed Currently, there are types of softshell turtle farming consisting of raising baby softshell turtles; raising trionyx sinensis (ba ba trơn) and raising tryonyx steinachderi (ba ba gai) For the households raised turtles for meat, the time from beginning to harvesting is about years

* Freshwater fish farming

Fish farming is usually carried out in ponds built in households The raised fishes are freshwater fishes such as bass, tilapia, drift fish, carp This is a form of culture between bass and traditional fishes, which brings higher efficiency than other models so it is widely deployed in Giao An commune

3.1.2 Analysis of livelihood assets

The current status of agricultural and fishery livelihoods had been assessed according to livelihood assets In particular, each livelihood assets is analyzed according to the specific evaluation criteria shown in Table 3.1

Table 3.1 Livelihood assets assessed by the author

Livelihood

assets Explanation

Human capital Production-related human capital and CC awareness

Social capital

Relationship between household members; relationship between households; relationship between households and loan clubs (hội, phường); relationship between households and

organizations and unions related to production activities; relationship between households and other organizations and unions; and relationship between households and local authorities

Livelihood

assets Explanation

systems in Giao An commune

Financial capital Expenses; income; access to loans; and savings a Human capital

Human capital was divided into parts including (1) Production-related human capital and (2) CC awareness

- Production-related human capital

Most of the survey participants assessed their current health situation at "moderate" (50.0%) and "good" level (15.0%), which could ensure and maintain their production activities However, 35.0% rated it as "weak" and this was considered to be one of the causes that directly affect their livelihood activities

In terms of educational level, the number of respondents who have attended secondary school was the largest (73.0%), while 11.0% who went to high school Moreover, there was still a part of people who have just studies in primary school (6.0%) (Table 3.2)

Table 3.2 The educational level of survey respondents

(Ratio: %)

Education level Percentage

Never been to school 2.0

Primary school Haven’t finished 2.0

Finished 4.0

Secondary school Haven’t finished 55.0

Finished 18.0

High school Haven’t finished 5.0

Finished 6.0

Primary vocational school 1.0

College Secondary apprentice school 1.0

College 2.0

University 3.0

Academy 1.0

Household Living Standards Survey 2016 of the General Statistic Office The surveyed area had an actual dependency ratio of about 33.6% (only calculated among those who cannot work, those who need support from family)

Regarding training, 30.0% of the people participating in the survey received training in agricultural and fishery production (Figure 3.4) Of these, 24.0% were selected by the commune and sent training to classes; conferences or programs related to agricultural activities of Commune Agricultural Production Steering Board/Giao Thuy Division of Agriculture and Rural Development/Department of Agriculture and Rural Development of Nam Dinh province The form of training was focused-training Among those trained, more than one-third of them would like to acquire more knowledge, experience and techniques in cultivation and animal husbandry, repairing agricultural machinery (tractors, harvesters) as well as learning more about farming techniques and knowledge about aquacultures such as effective clam, shrimp and fish farming

The remaining (6.0%) were trained in the field of fisheries Like agriculture, this was also a focused training In particular, more than half of the surveyed people wanted to know more knowledge, experience and techniques in aquaculture

The percentage of people who had been trained was not too high so the majority of agricultural and fishery production was based on the experience they gained from their families or their research and observation (Table 3.3)

Figure 3.4 Percentage of survey participants trained in agriculture and fishery (Ratio: %) Table 3.3 Sources survey participants gained agricultural production experience

(Ratio: %) 30

70

Trained

Family

Friends and neighbors

Observing and researching from TV,

newspapers…

Agriculture

Rice farming 88.3 14.3 39.0

Vegetable farming 68.2 31.8 50.0

Livestock husbandry 82.7 15.4 44.2

Fishery Fishing 66.7 66.7 22.2

Aquaculture 34.3 31.4 74.3

For households engaged in agriculture and fishery, most had production experience for over 20 years (Table 3.4) Therefore, the majority of respondents felt "fairly confident" and "very confident" in their occupational skills Only a small part assessed the level of “somewhat confident” and “not confident” in the field of agriculture as well as fishery because they thought these activities still depended heavily on other factors such as environment, climate/weather and extreme events (Table 3.5)

Table 3.4 Seniority in agricultural and fishery production activities of surveyed subjects (Ratio: %)

Activities

Years of experience Less than

5 years

5 – 10 years

10 – 20 years

More than 20 years

Agriculture

Rice farming 1.3 0.0 15.6 83.1

Vegetable farming 0.0 0.0 27.3 72.7

Livestock husbandry 0.0 5.8 23.1 71.2

Fishery Fishing 0.0 9.1 36.4 54.5

Aquaculture 2.9 17.1 40.0 40.0

Table 3.5 Survey participants self-assessed the level of confidence in their occupational skills (Ratio: %) Activities Confidence level Very confident Fairly confident Somewhat confident Not confident No access

Agriculture 52.5 28.8 7.5 10.0 1.2

- Paddy field 51.4 30.6 6.9 9.7 1.4

- Vegetable 58.3 33.3 0.0 8.3 0.0

- Livestock 51.0 34.7 6.1 8.2 0.0

Fishery 37.8 46.0 8.1 8.1 0.0

- Fishing 45.5 54.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

In addition to occupational skills, households also mentioned other skills needed to develop production activities, especially the application of science and technology, skills for machinery or equipment repair or information access and market access In fact, the conditions for applying technological advances to production were limited as well as the economic development of households were still difficult due to the lack of knowledge about market access and information access Therefore, survey participants also wished to have discussions or training courses on this issue

- Climate change awareness

79.0% of the respondents had heard about the term “climate change” while 21.0% had not The information channels they received were mainly programs on "TV, radio" (71.3%) and via other sources (27.9%) such as local loudspeakers; conversations from people around and their observations and feelings (Table 3.6)

Climate change was defined by the survey respondents in many different ways, depending on its cause or the relationship between it and weather All subjects recorded unusual phenomena of weather as well as natural disasters/extreme events However, some people were still mistakenly thinking that CC was environmental pollution such as air pollution (Table 3.7) Meanwhile, 12.7% still did not know what CC was

Table 3.6 Information channels on climate change that respondents received by (Ratio: %)

Information channels Valid percentage

Tivi/ Radio 71.3

Books, newspapers, magazines 23.8

Meeting/ Discusion 2.5

Training programs 8.8

Internet 15.0

Other 27.9

Table 3.7 The definition of climate change was given by the survey participants (Ratio: %)

Definition of climate change Valid percentage

Climate change is a change in the statistical properties of the climate system that persists for several decades or longer - usually at least 30 years

Definition of climate change Valid percentage

Climate change makes natural disasters more unusual such as

typhoons, floods,… 12.7

DNK 12.7

Other 50.6

Regarding the cause of CC, "entirely by people" was the chosen option with the highest rate of 40.0% The second was “mainly due to human” accounting for 26.2% (Table 3.8)

Table 3.8 The causes of climate change were identified by the survey participants (Ratio: %)

Causes of climate change Valid percentage

Climate change is completely caused by nature 8.8

Climate change is entirely by human 40.0

Climate change is caused by both nature and human 15.0

Climate change is mainly due to human 26.2

Climate change is mainly due to nature 3.8

DNK 6.2

=> Therefore, it can be seen that people participating in the survey had many years of experience in production activities, so they were quite confident in their skills This was one of the advantages to develop people's livelihood However, there were still some problems in human capital such as educational level was low; the percentage of untrained people was still quite high so production activities were based on their own feelings and experiences; limitations on the application of technical advances as well as access to information and market access Besides, most people did not fully understand the definition as well as the causes of CC These were also disadvantages for livelihood development and potential risks when affected by extreme events or other external contexts

b Social capital

- Relationship between family members

In agricultural production, 67.9% had one to a few members (the highest is people) in the family working with the survey respondents In particular, the participants were mainly wives (68.8%), husbands (23.0%), children (6.6%) and mothers (1.6%)

In aquaculture, 73.5% had one or several members (the highest is people) in the family participating in the work They were wives (57.2%), husbands (21.4%) and children (21.4%) - Relationship between households

Surveyed households received support from relatives, friends and neighbors For example, in agricultural production, some households lent paddy fields for free, exchanged labor during the transplanting stage, or loaned rice milling machines Or in case of lack of food, households can borrow each other In fishery activities, households also shared experiences in fishing, aquaculture as well as helped each other in trouble or difficulties

- Relationship of households to loan clubs

Almost survey respondents (60.0%) joined in loan clubs (in other words, phường, hội) Especially aquaculture households, they participated in many loan clubs This is how people mobilize capital quickly as well as save money

The form of playing loan clubs is as follows: The person in charge of collecting all the assets is called "leader" and the participants are often acquaintances to limit the risk of losing money The average loan club has about 20 - 30 players Members can agree to contribute to the loan club a valuable asset such as money, gold and cement bag Then, participants are free to comment on the number of assets to contribute, the period of contribution and the period of opening to get assets For example, there are 10 players in a golden loan club, there will be times a year The first time, each person contributes mace of gold, A bring all away The second time, A has to pays 1.2 maces of gold for the club (0.2 mace of gold is the interest that A has to pay) Continuing such a rotation, the next person will collect all the golds and then pay the same as 1.2 maces of gold However, there are many potential risks if the player or leader has taken all the money and fled

- The relationship between households and organizations and unions related to production activities

According to households participating in the agricultural sector, Commune Agricultural Production Steering Board played a "very important" (23.8%) and "important" (35.7%) role to their production activities (Table 3.9) Because Giao An is an agricultural commune, almost all agricultural activities are directed and guided by this organization such as seeding, soaking, tending and protecting rice seeds; transplanting, managing diseases

Also, the cooperative was assessed at an "important" level to the production activities of local people (44.0%) (Table 3.9) because this is a unit in combination with Xuan Thuy One-Member Limited Liability Company for Irrigation to regulate irrigation water in Giao An commune Not only that, this cooperative provided rice varieties However, there was still a significant proportion (41.7%) that cooperatives played "unimportant" role because the cooperative was like a service provider; there was a lack of qualified people as well as the irrigation regulation was not good Moreover, surveyed people thought that the price of the rice varieties supplied by the cooperative was high leading to be difficult to compete with those doing agricultural services

Table 3.9 Surveyed households self-assessed the importance level of the Commune Agricultural Production Steering Board, Cooperative, Farmer's Association to their

production activities

(Ratio: %)

Organizations and unions

Importance level Very

important Important

Moderatly important

Slighty important

No important

No access

Commune Agricultural Production Steering Board

23.8 35.7 17.9 14.3 8.3 0.0

Cooperative 6.0 44.0 0.0 8.3 41.7 0.0

Farmer’s

Association 7.0 42.9 0.0 6.0 42.9 1.2

association as having an "important" level in their production However, 42.9% had the opposite view that farmer’s association had not fully played its role; the current activities of the association were few and not exciting (Table 3.9)

+ Fishery

In fishing activities, organizations and unions were assessed from "very important" (40.0%) to "important" (60.0%) referred to as the Self-governing team and the Border Post The team was founded in 2015 with the leader, Mr Pham Van Bong (head of the hamlet 18) As of 2019, 17 ships and boats were operating near the shore participating in this group, including some of the ships in Giao Thien commune Each month, the team holds a meeting The purpose of the team is to support each other in production and rescue at sea when the boats are down Not only that, the team is entrusted by the Border Guard to manage the mangrove forests Every day, in addition to fishing, the team members will patrol to detect the acts of harming the environment From there, notify the forest rangers, the local police, border posts and local authorities to handle the behavior Moreover, the group also has a form of playing loan clubs Each member contributes VND million/times/month The person who takes all money must pay the initial amount plus the interest rate of 0.5%/ month This fund is mainly to support the team members if they need to repair ships or equip new fishing grounds

For aquaculture, at present, Giao An commune also had the link between traders and households engaging in extensive shrimp farming The linkage method is as follows: households record their shrimp production before traders transfer all those goods to Hanoi After calculating, traders will re-quote for households Therefore, households have not been proactive in price because it is highly dependent on traders and market prices Besides, the commune still does not have aquaculture groups, like Giao Thien and Giao Hai commune There is also no close link between enterprises/companies, traders and households taking part in aquaculture This is also considered as one of the difficulties in solving product output Therefore, households hope to establish aquaculture groups in the future

Other organizations and unions such as the Women's Union, Youth Union, Veterans' Association, Red Cross Association plays an important role in the propagating and supporting activities related to the lives of households in Giao An

However, the majority of households rated these organizations and unions as "no important" to their production activities (Table 3.10) because these are usually charitable and humanitarian activities Although they had production-related support such as Women's Unions lent money to households to develop livestock husbandry with an amount of VND million The interest rate was VND thousand/1 million/ month, the maximum loan period was years

Table 3.10 Surveyed households self-assessed the importance level of other organizations and unions to their production activities

(Ratio: %)

Organizations and unions

Importance level Very

important Important

Moderatly important

Slighty important

No important

No access

Women's Union 4.0 27.0 0.0 4.0 64.0 1.0

Youth Union 4.0 29.0 0.0 4.0 63.0 0.0

Veterans'

Association 4.0 26.0 0.0 4.0 64.0 2.0

Red Cross

Association 5.3 36.8 0.0 5.3 52.6 0.0

- Relationship between households and local authorities

The Party Committees, People's Committees and People's Councils of Giao An commune are agencies that are closely related to the households This is the agency to formulate plans and implement economic and social activities in the locality These agencies act as a bridge between superior agencies and the community

Figure 3.5 Surveyed households self-assessed the importance level of local authorities to their production activities

(Ratio:%)

=> In a household, the production activities were shared Moreover, there were supports and links between households in production activities Not only that, mass organizations as well as local authorities were largely assessed to play an important role in agriculture and fishery activities However, households still expected local authorities to improve and promote all mass organizations, especially the Women's Union, the Youth Union, the Veterans' Association and the Red Cross Association At the same time, there were still not many production groups or close links in production activities of Giao An commune so the surveyed households still wanted to develop social networks to promote their production activities, especially in aquaculture Besides, playing loan clubs were quite popular in Giao An commune, this was considered as one of the forms of capital mobilization However, the risk of participating was not zero c Natural capital

Natural capital to develop agricultural and fishery livelihoods for people in Giao An commune includes land resources, water resources, climate resources and forest resources

- Land resources

Giao An commune is an area accreted by the alluvial system of the Red River every year, less acidic soil and favorable for agricultural development, mainly for rice and vegetable farming The total area of the commune was 820.56 Of which,

13

51

3 31

Very important Important

15.4% The remaining was non-agricultural land making up 23.0% and unused land of 9.34 representing 1.2% (Table 3.11) Thus, the main area was agricultural land for wet rice and aquaculture so it was potentially affected by CC

Table 3.11 Statistics of types of land according to many different purposes

No Types of land Area (ha) Structure (%)

1 Agricultural land 496.02 60.4

1.1 Lan for wet rice 432.17 52.6

1.2 Land for annual crops 8.78 1.1

1.3 Land for perennial crops 55.07 6.7

2 Aquaculture land 126.22 15.4

3 Non-agricultural land 188.89 23.0

4 Unused land 9.43 1.2

Total 820.56 100

(Source: People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2014)

+ Land used in agriculture * Cultivated area

According to the survey results, on average each household owned about 4.0 of field However, about 2.2% of the surveyed households did not have land to cultivate and 30.8% thought that there was not enough land to develop agricultural production, so they borrowed or rented from relatives, friends and neighbors

* Quality of land

Regarding the quality of land used in agriculture, the majority of surveyed households (41.0%) rated it as "good" (Table 3.12) However, there was still not a small percentage (30.8%) had the opposite opinion that the quality of land was degraded and less fertile because of two main reasons (1) the excess of chemical fertilizers (potassium, phosphorus, nitrogen) as well as pesticides in the soil and (2) the decline in using of organic fertilizers In addition to the quality of the land, one of the obstacles to agriculture that households mentioned was related to the topography of the rice fields and the infrastructure for developing rice cultivation was not good In fact, the land of Giao An commune was uneven and the difference was nearly 35 centimeters When water was needed, there was no water to use and vice versa

+ Land used in fisheries (aquaculture)

From 1960 to 1985 was the period of expanding are by building dykes according to the motto "Rice encroached on sedge, sedge encroached on bruguiera, bruguiera encroached on sea” (Lúa lấn cói, cói lấn vẹt, vẹt lấn biển) At this stage, the dyke for about 300 near the foot of Ngu Han dyke (Dien Bien new economic zone area, Giao An commune) was built

* Cultivated area

About two-thirds of aquaculture households had to rent land/ponds (64.7%) and only one-third owned them (35.3%) The clam farming area had an average area of about ha, while the improved extensive shrimp farming had the smallest area of hectares and the largest of 33 hectares

* Quality of land

Regarding the quality of land in aquaculture activities, the majority (41.8%) assessed it as a “good” level but households had to renovate it every year (Table 3.12)

Table 3.12 Surveyed households assess the quality of land and water they used (Ratio: %)

Natural capital

Quality Very

good

Good Neutral Bad Very bad

No access

Depend

Agriculture Land 0.0 41.0 26.9 15.4 15.4 1.3 0.0 Water 7.7 48.6 16.7 16.7 7.7 2.6 0.0 Fishery

(aquaculture only)

Land 0.0 41.8 22.6 22.6 6.5 6.5 0.0 Water 0.0 17.8 21.4 28.6 25.0 3.6 3.6 - Water resources

Giao An has 02 sources of water They are surface water and groundwater Surface water: is mainly taken from the Red River, tributaries and rainwater which can supply enough water for people’s production and daily life In the rainy season, the water level of the Red River and its tributaries rise causing excess water for agricultural production, the district has to use drainage pipes under the dyke to regulate water

+ Water used in agriculture

Regarding the quality of water used in agriculture, 48.7% rated it as "good" However, 41.1% said that the quality was only from "neutral" to "very bad" (Table 3.12) The main reason was the excessive use of chemical fertilizers as well as pesticides led to water pollution (96.7%)

+ Water used in fisheries (aquaculture)

Regarding the quality of water used in aquaculture, 75.0% rated the quality of water in aquaculture as from "neutral" to "very bad" (Table 3.12) The main reason mentioned was due to water pollution (96.0%) This pollution was caused by domestic wastewater and wastewater production discharged into the environment as well as the pesticides from the fields released into rivers and seas

- Climate: Giao An commune is full of typical climate features of tropical monsoon zone with distinct seasons, which is very favorable for the development of coastal ecosystems and agriculture (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2013) However, due to the uneven distribution of rainfall during the year, water shortage occurs in January, February and December Some areas have saltwater intrusion such as hamlet 1, 5, 9, 12, 16 and hamlets outside the central dyke In particular, there are times when the salinity of groundwater used for living reaches - ‰, affecting people’s daily life as well as production activities

- Forest resources

Table 3.13 Surveyed participants assessed the role of mangroves

(Ratio: %)

Role Valid

percentage

Role Valid

percentage

Prevention in cases of

typhoons 87.4 Shelfter for aquatic species 12.6

Stabilizing mudflats 51.7 Regulating air 9.2

Controlling rise of sea level

and sea currents 17.2

Preventing Soil erosion and

regenerating soil 3.4

Protection of sea dyke 73.6 Limiting flooding 1.1 Protection of shrimp and

clam ponds 44.8

Reducing environmental pollution, protecting the environment

10.3 Keeping sediment and

creating mudflats 18.4 Developing ecotourism 3.4

Increasing income for

fishermen 51.7

46.0% thought that currently, mangroves and mudflats were facing difficulties and challenges such as "environmental pollution" (39.1%) and "overexploitation" (37.0%) (Table 3.14)

Table 3.14 Difficulties/challenges faced by mangroves and mudflats in the opinion of the survey participants

(Ratio: %)

Difficulties/challenges Valid

percentage Difficulties/challenges

Valid percentage

Overexploitation in

mangroves 37.0 Environmental pollution 39.1

The influence of natural conditions such as weather, natural disasters

23.9

Encroachment on mangrove forests, the environment is narrowed

17.4

The physical capital of Giao An commune includes facilities for daily life, means of production and infrastructure to serve the public interest

- Facilities for daily life + House

According to the survey results, 46.0% of households were living in "single-storey house with flat roof"; next, 32.0% in a "multi-"single-storey house" and 2.2% were living in a "villa" (Table 3.15)

Table 3.15 The percentage of house types that the survey participants were living in (Ratio: %)

Type of houses

Four-level house with tile roof

Single-storey house with flat

roof

Multi-storey house

Haven’t got a home

Other (villa)

Percentage 21.0 46.0 32.0 0.0 1.0

Regarding the quality of the house, 47.0% of households rated their current house quality as "average"; 33.0% said that at a “very good” level; 6.0% at “good” level The rest (1.0%) was at the “poor” level (Figure 3.6)

Figure 3.6 Survey respondents assessed the quality of their houses

(Ratio: %)

+ Household devices and appliances

Most of the households equipped necessary equipment such as "fan" (100.0%), "cellphone" (100.0%), "rice cookers" (100.0%) , "fridge" (95.0%) and "motorbike" (93.0%) More than 40.0% of households had "washing machine" and "air

33

6 47

13 Very good

Good

conditioner" However, only a small number of households had a "car or truck" (6.0%) (Table 3.16)

Table 3.16 The percentage of appliances was owned by surveyed households

(Ratio: %)

Household devices and appliances

Valid percentage

Household devices and appliances

Valid percentage

Fridge 95.0 Bicycle 87.0

Washing machine 50.0 Motorbike 93.0

Air condition 42.0 Car, truck 6.0

Electric water heater 78.0 Electric generator 20.0

Fan 100.0 Battery (insted of

generator) 2.0

Cellphone 100.0 Freezer 5.0

Rice cooker 100.0

The majority of households (92.0%) rated their household devices and appliances as “high” to “moderate” (Figure 3.7)

Figure 3.7 Surveyed subjects assessed the quality of their household devices and appliances

(Ratio: %)

- Means of production + Agriculture

* Rice farming: Most of the participating households applied machines in rice farming (97.3%) Only a small percentage of households (2.7%) still cultivated traditional manual practices such as plowing with buffaloes or harvesting with sickles

43

1 48

2 Very high

sickles, spray bottles for pesticides Besides, 4.2% of the households self-equipped with plow and harrow machines as well as harvester while the remainder (95.8%) did not have and had to rent This was considered as one of the reasons leading to the lack of initiative in production activities because each hamlet had to machines; the hire also took time to wait for the turn or in some cases, households wanted to harvest earlier but there was no machine to use Moreover, Giao An commune did not have an automatic transplanting machine or automatic pesticide spraying machine

* Vegetable farming: Growing vegetables was conducted manually by 76.2% of households 23.5% equipped and applied equipment such as small plowing machines, garden watering equipment and pump to their production activities

* Livestock husbandry: The breeds being used in livestock husbandry in Giao An commune included pigs, buffaloes, poultry (ducks, chickens, geese, etc.), rabbits and pigeons All households built animal cages for their livestock and the majority (98.1%) carried out these activities in the traditional way In pig farming, 9.5% of households had drainage systems and biogas tanks Besides, 1.9% of households applied machinery and equipment such as automatic pig feeders

+ Fishery

* Fishing: Of the fishing households, 72.7% of households equipped small boats with 15 to 25 CV power engines or non-motorized traditional boats (such as composite boats, aluminum boats, styrofoam boats or wooden boats and basket boats) On average, each household had – boats (Some households owned boats) To ensure safety, these households also prepared life vests as well as swimming floats The fishing grounds were within the buffer and core zone of XTNP Also, households made their means of fishing such as taking advantage of plastic bottles or using spears to catch fishes Moreover, 72.7% equipped with other fishing gears such as fish traps with 10m length, set nets and stow net with cm mesh or small drag nets

* Aquaculture

cleaning clam ponds machine (máy rửa bãi), clam harvesters and boats (some households lived in their boat instead of building a watchtower)

Producing baby clams: Similar to raising clam, the facilities required was lighting equipment (using through batteries and electricity; some aquaculture areas can connect to the national grid but not all areas have electricity or any home also can afford to pay for this amount), salinity measuring devices, cleaning clam ponds machine and clam harvesters Besides, households also built watchtower with the aims of living here and observing the clams Piles and nets were used to encircle clam farming ponds Some households also had their generators Not only that, the households also hire a crane to build or renovate the ponds every year

Oyster farming: For households that took advantage of the areas outside the drainage of aquaculture ponds to grow oysters, no equipment or machinery was required These activities mainly need hard substrates that oysters can lean on For oyster farmers in Con Lu mudflats, in addition to renting lands, they also needed equipping with boats

Intensive whiteleg shrimp farming: Whiteleg shrimp farming locations usually located in areas with soil quality suitable for adequate water sources, and suitable water quality (pH > 5, ) In addition to the location, the dissolved oxygen levels in water was an important factor for the growth and development of whiteleg shrimp, so aeration system was installed to diffuse oxygen into the water and to provide a part of oxygen for the shrimp as well as to gather shrimp waste to one place to improve the water environment Furthermore, households needed to have equipment such as pumps and tools due to water measuring instruction to calculate indicators such as pH, alkalinity, ammonia and oxygen Moreover, households also equipped fish grinders as well as freezers to store fish Besides the use of industrial feed, homemade feeds were made from available materials such as snails and rough fishes (cá tạp)

Freshwater fish farming: Freshwater fish farming needed to build ponds and equipped the necessary equipment such as pumps, fish grinders, freezers,…

from 1m2 to 1m5, while for baby softshell turtles from 80 cm - m Moreover, softshell turtles ate a variety of foods such as snails, worms, rough fishes, lard so households needed to prepare a fish grinders and freezer as well

- Infrastructure to serve the public interest + Road and traffic system

The road and traffic system of Giao An commune has been improved and developed significantly In particular, the pavement of the communal and inter-commune roads have been asphalt and concrete according to national standards Besides, the main roads in the field were also have been hardened (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2017b)

½ households participating in the survey assessed the quality of the road and traffic system in Giao An commune from "very good" to "good" However, there were still 47.0% who had contrary views because they thought that the construction was still patchy, did not synchronized and complete as well as the quality of construction had not been guaranteed (Table 3.17)

+ Electric power system

The whole commune has transformer stations with a total capacity of 2,180 KVA distributed in population clusters to all hamlets The electric power system ensures the technical requirements of the electricity industry such as poles, wires, low-voltage lines, transformers to ensure safe and regular electricity supply 100% of households in the commune have access and use electricity (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2017b)

Therefore, most households rated the quality of Giao An commune as “very good” (89.0%) to “good” (7.0%) (Table 3.17)

+ School system

The majority of households (82.0%) rated the quality of the schools as "very good" Only a small percentage (5.0%) said that the quality was from “average” to “poor” with the reason that teachers and facilities were not good (Table 3.17)

+ Early warning system (loudspeaker,…)

The commune has 39 loudspeakers evenly distributed in 22 hamlets to ensure the full transmission of the Party's guidelines and State policies and laws as well as local politics duties (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2017b)

The majority of the households (75.0%) rated the early warning system, especially the commune-wide loudspeaker system, at a “very good” level and updated the information continuously However, there were still some outstanding issues such as sometimes, the sound of loudspeakers was a bit choppy, the broadcasting time was not reasonable, some communes had only one loudspeaker so the number of households accessing information was still small Therefore, 15% rated them as “average” to “poor” (Table 3.17)

In addition to the loudspeaker system, the commune has built an online website to updated relevant information

+ Health system

The number of people participating in health insurance in 2017 reached 85.0% A commune health center has reached national standards with professionally trained doctors Besides, a Military Clinic was in hamlet 17 to better serve the medical examination and treatment for local people (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2017b)

68.0% of households rated Giao An commune health system as “very good” while 18.0% assessed it from “average” to “poor” level with the argument that the equipment in commune health center was inadequate as well as available drugs were not much and less diverse (Table 3.17)

+ Domestic water system

water for more than 10 years but this was the first exchange of water suppliers (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2017b) In general, most people thought that the water was at "very good" level (85.0%) (Table 3.17)

+ Sewerage system

Giao An commune has a system of sewers and drainage ditches that ensure environmental sanitation In which, sewer No 10 plays an important role because it is considered to be a drain from inland to the sea (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2017b)

71.0% rated the sewerage system in Giao An as "very good" However, 24.0% said that they only reached the "average" to "poor" level because most of the sewerage systems in the residential areas had not been completed, resulting in poor drainage (Table 3.17) For example, in hamlet where the residential areas were scattered, there was no sewerage system but the water flowed directly into paddy fields so the rate of inundation was quite high

+ Dyke system

Giao An has dyke systems First is the central dyke to keep safety for 16 inner hamlets (from hamlet to hamlet 16) and second is the dyke outside the central dyke to protect hamlets of Dien Bien new economic zone (from hamlet 17 to hamlet 22) Therefore, almost households (87.0%) assessed the dyke system of Giao An commune as “very good” to “good” (Table 3.17)

Table 3.17 Assessment of households participating in the survey on infrastructure system in Giao An commune

(Ratio: %)

Infrastructure system

Quality Very

good Good

Average

good Average

Poor

average Poor

DNK No

access

Road and traffic

system 34.0 16.0 0.0 36.0 1.0 10.0 3.0 0.0

Electric power system 89.0 7.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

School system 82.0 10.0 1.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.0

Early warning system

Infrastructure system

Quality Very

good Good

Average

good Average

Poor

average Poor

DNK No

access

Domestic water

system 85.0 4.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 2.0

Sewerage system 71.0 5.0 0.0 11.0 0.0 13.0 0.0 0.0

Dyke system 82.0 5.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 2.0 7.0 0.0

=> In general, the living standard of the people has been significantly improved Most of the households have lived in solid houses and are equipped with the essential facilities for their daily life Not only that, almost have provided the basic and necessary means of production to develop their livelihoods The infrastructure to serve public interests has had a lot of changes, affecting positively the production activities of the people living here

However, there are still some difficulties such as the application of science and technology to agricultural production activities still have some limitations; Most of the rice farming activities are still not active in production because the means of production are rented or borrowed (such as plow and harrow machine as well as harvester) Or the plurality of fishing activities in the commune using fishing gears that are prohibited to use in nearshore according to Circular 19/2018/TT-BNNPTNT guidelines for protection and development of aquatic resources Moreover, the development of Giao An commune infrastructure still has some programs

e Financial capital

- Main sources of income

Figure 3.8 The main sources of income of the surveyed households

(Ratio: %) - Expenses and income from agricultural activities

+ Expenses for agricultural activities

Giao An commune has two annual rice seasons, including spring-summer crop and the autumn-winter crop The total cost for a season ranged from VND 500 thousand to about VND million/sao1 (See Appendix 2.1 for details on expenses related to rice cultivation)

Spring-summer crop has higher yields than autumn-winter crop On average, each season harvests about quintals of paddy, equivalent to VND million - 1.2 million (depending on the rice varieties and the time of sale) If households hire everything, there won’t be much profit

small plows range from VND million to 10 million/piece Similar to rice farming, households also invested in seeds and plants, phosphorus, nitrogen and pesticides and herbicides In one crop, the cost for buying seeds and plants was from VND 300 thousand to million (depending on the cultivated area of each household) Besides, due to taking advantage of chicken manure and rice husk, phosphorus and nitrogen used were less about VND 100 thousand - 200 thousand Moreover, the cost of spraying pesticides was calculated equivalent to that of rice However, the number of pesticide sprays in a crop was quite large, especially planting melons every 2-3 days to spray once Pesticides used were mainly biological pesticides, so surveyed households thought that it was not harmful to the health of users

For small-scale livestock husbandry households, the average cost to build a simple cage/barn was about VND million/m2 Prices of livestock breeds depended on the types and the time of purchase (See Appendix 2.2 for details on prices of livestock breeds) In addition, households also paid expenses related to animal feed and drugs for treatment or prevention of livestock diseases For large-scale pig farming, all construction costs ranged from VND 100 million to VND 150 million including slaughterhouse, automatic pig feeder, biogas tanks and drainage system (See Appendix 2.3 for details on expenses related to livestock husbandry)

+ Access to loans

For rice farming, brought the profit from VND 200 thousand to VND 700 thousand per season This profit was much lower than that of livelihood activities while the period took place over a half-year period (6 months)

For vegetable farming at small-scale (making use of the land around the houses), the products they produced were mainly for household use If there were surplus products, they would sell but their income was not significant For a larger-scale, the average income in the main crop was about VND 15 million – VND 20 million (3 months) while the sale of other vegetables increased their monthly income by VND million - million

For chicken, duck and goose farms at small-scale, their average monthly income from selling eggs and meat was from VND 500 thousand to VND 1.5 million Meanwhile, households raising chickens and ducks with larger numbers (about 500 or more) had an average monthly income of about VND million Besides, the income for pigeon-raising households was about VND 30 million/year Raising buffaloes earned an average annual income of about VND 40 million Moreover, households involved in pig raising had an average annual income of VND 15 million - 30 million For households applying machines, equipment and facilities in pig farming, the average income was about VND 100 million - 200 million/year

- Expenses and income from fishery activities + Expenses for fishery activities

For households owning boats for fishing, the total cost was from VND 50 million to 70 million, mainly focusing on boats and fishing gears In particular, a small boat with less than 25 CV power engines ranged from VND 15 million to VND 50 million Wooden boats were cheaper about VND 20 million In addition, households used non-motorized traditional boats such as styrofoam boats were about VND million – million/piece; composite boats were VND million – 2.5 million/piece and aluminum boats had a price of VND million/piece

also invested from VND million (for an old machine) and VND 3.5 million (for a new machine) to equip the facility to wash their boats For households that did not have boats, fishing was completely traditional activities The use of plastic water bottles or making their own spears to catch fishes, the cost was not significant except for households who equipped fish traps and nets

In aquaculture, clam farming was the activities with the largest total average cost of about VND 500 million – 600 million/year, mainly focusing on stocking seed clams For households renting lands to cultivate oysters, the total annual cost was about VND 100 million - 200 million For whiteleg shrimp farmers, the total expenses for a small-scale (at household level) were VND 200 million/pond Next, the total costs in improved extensive shrimp farming ranged from VND 50 million to VND 150 million/year Besides, the expenses of raising softshell turtles were about VND 100 million/3 years Finally, freshwater fish farming had the lowest average annual cost of about VND 10 million - 20 million (See Appendix 2.4 for details on expenses related to aquaculture) + Access to loans

More than half of the households borrowed money to produce aquaculture activities (53.5%) The loan amount ranged from VND 100 million to VND billion In which, 43.5% borrowed from Giao Thanh Credit Fund with the interest rate of 0.9%/month; 26.1% from Vietnam Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development with similar interest rates; 8.7% got loans from friends and relatives; 4.3% borrowed from Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Industry and Trade with an interest rate of 0.75%/year and 17.4% had to get loans from others which are non-bank financial institutions with higher interest rates due to difficulties in paperwork, procedures or ineligibility for loans from the bank This was also one of the reasons why 46.5% did not want to access loans and did not participate in loans

+ Income

For households involving fishing, the average monthly income was about VND million – VND million

million/year Meanwhile, for raising clams, the average income per year was from VND 100 million to VND 200 million For extensive shrimp farmers, the average annual income was from VND 70 million to VND 80 million, the households with the highest income were up to VND 200 million/year For oyster farming, households who took advantage of the area outside the drainage systems of aquaculture ponds had an average income of VND 50 million per year For households renting land in Con Lu mudflat, the income was higher about VND 100 million/year For freshwater fish farming, most of the fish were raised for family purposes, so the income was negligible, on average about VND million/month For softshell turtle farming, the average income in years was about VND 120 million - VND 200 million For intensive whiteleg shrimp farming, the average annual income was about VND 70 million – VND 80 million

- Saving

76.0% of the surveyed households had no savings because they had to pay for their living and production activities

=> As can be seen, the production activities have created income for people in Giao An commune In which, aquaculture brought quite a large income for the surveyed households However, the greater the investment in this activity was, the greater the business risk was Besides, access to loans was limited in terms of procedures and paperwork In addition, rice farming had a relatively low profit This was considered as one of the reasons leading to 8.1% of households no longer performing rice production Moreover, most surveyed households did not have savings

3.1.3 Measurement and evaluation of livelihood assets

Through the survey results combined with the local government leadership opinion, the score for the secondary indicators were calculated (See Appendix 1.2 for details on scores and conversion level of the secondary indicators were determined by the surveyed households and local authorities)

remain assets including social capital, natural capital and physical capital, were assessed at the "medium-high" level with a score of 3.5; 3.6 and 3.4 (Figure 3.9)

Figure 3.9 Surveyed households and local authorities assessed agricultural and fishery livelihood assets in Giao An commune

3.2 Climate variation in the research site

There are no meteorological stations in Giao An commune Therefore, the thesis uses the dataset of Nam Dinh meteorological station This data set was collected from 1989 to 2018 (30 years)

3.2.1 In the past

a Temperature

From analyzing the 30-year meteorological dataset (1989 - 2018) of Nam Dinh station, the average annual temperature fluctuated between 23˚ and 24˚C In 30 years, it tended to increase by about 1.0˚C (Figure 3.10) In particular, from 1989 to 1998, the temperature increased by 0.4˚C; from 1999 to 2008, decreased by 0.2˚C and the remaining period from 2009 to 2018 rose 0.6˚C Thus, the average annual temperature trend had an upward trend by about 0.3˚C over the decade

Besides, the maximum average temperature recorded was about 29˚ - 30˚C in May The minimum average temperature in January and February was about 18˚ - 19˚C (Figure 3.11)

0

Human capital

Natural capital

Social capital Finanical

Figure 3.10 The trendline of average annual air temperature in Nam Dinh province in the period of 1989 – 2018

Figure 3.11 The maximum, minimum and average temperature in many years in Nam Dinh province in the period of 1989 – 2018

Due to the influence of the northeast monsoon as well as the elevation of the terrain, the regime of heat dissociates markedly according to the seasons The hot season usually lasts months from May to September The cold season is from November to February next year (Department of Natural Resources and Environment of Nam Dinh Province, 2019)

b Rainfall

In the period of 1989 - 2018, the total annual rainfall of Nam Dinh Province fluctuated in the range of 1,750 - 1,800 mm and distributed evenly throughout the space of Nam Dinh province 2007 was the year with the lowest annual rainfall (1086, mm) and 1994 was the year with the highest total annual rainfall (2988.9 mm) (Figure 3.12)

y = 0.0351x - 46.33

22.5 23.0 23.5 24.0 24.5 25.0 25.5

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Annual

average

air

tem

pera

tur

e

(ºC)

Year

0 10 20 30 40

T

em

peratur

e

(º

C)

Month

Minimum temperature Maximum temperature

Rainfall is unevenly distributed throughout the year and varies by season: The rainy season usually lasts from May to October and in some years, it occurs early in late April and ends in late in October Its rainfall accounts for 80.6% of the total annual rainfall Meanwhile, the dry season usually lasts from November to April next year nearly months but rainfall in this season only makes up 19.4% (Department of Natural Resources and Environment of Nam Dinh Province, 2019)

The three consecutive months with the highest average monthly rainfall usually happening from July to September whose the rainfall represents nearly 52% of the total annual rainfall Moreover, the three consecutive months with the lowest average monthly rainfall usually occurs in December, January and February The rainfall in these three months only accounts for nearly 5% (Department of Natural Resources and Environment of Nam Dinh Province, 2019)

Figure 3.12 The trendline of total annual rainfall in Nam Dinh province in the period of 1989 – 2018

c Extreme events

All surveyed households have confirmed that the abnormality of extreme events/natural disasters has occurred in Giao An commune in recent years In which, "typhoon"; "tropical low pressure"; "lightning"; "heavy rain"; "extreme hot weather"; "damaging cold" and "hoarfrost" were considered to be the main extreme events in the research site (Table 3.18)

The frequency of most of these extreme events was rated as "rarely", but the intensity was "stronger" than before (Table 3.19 and Table 3.20)

y = -0.8974x + 3444

0 1000 2000 3000 4000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

T

otal

annual

pr

ecipitation

(m

m

)

Table 3.18 Assessment of survey respondents about extreme events that have occurred in Giao An commune in recent year

(Ratio: %)

Types of extreme

events Valid percentage

Types of extreme

events Valid percentage

Typhoon 97.0 Hail 4.0

Tropical low

pressure 98.0 Drought 30.0

Whirlwind 56.0 Hoarfrost 82.0

Lightning 94.0 Other 20.0

Heavy rain 78.0 - Acid rain 1.0

Inundation 32.0 - Shower 1.0

Sea level rise 19.0 - Fog 1.0

Saltwater intrusion 19.0 - Change in weather 16.0 Extreme hot

weather 95.0 - Humid 1.0

Damaging cold 60.0

Table 3.19 Assessment of survey respondents about the frequency of extreme events in Giao An in recent year

(Ratio: %)

Types of extreme events

Frequency Very

often Often Sometimes Rarely Depend DNK

Typhoon 4.1 29.9 0.0 51.5 14.4 0.0

Tropical low

pressure 4.1 30.6 0.0 52.0 13.3 0.0

Whirlwind 1.8 26.8 0.0 58.9 12.5 0.0

Lightning 6.3 33.7 3.2 46.3 10.5 0.0

Heavy rain 0.0 11.5 0.0 53.8 33.3 1.3

Inundation 3.2 16.1 0.0 77.4 3.2 0.0

Sea level rise 10.5 0.0 0.0 73.7 15.8 0.0

Saltwater

intrusion 5.0 5.0 5.0 60.0 25.0 0.0

Extreme hot

weather 92.6 4.3 0.0 2.1 1.1 0.0

Types of extreme events

Frequency Very

often Often Sometimes Rarely Depend DNK

Drought 9.7 12.9 0.0 64.5 12.9 0.0

Hoarfrost 10.7 20.2 1.2 35.7 32.1 0.0

Other 50.0 35.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 0.0

Table 3.20 Assessment of survey respondents about the intensity of extreme events in Giao An in recent year

(Ratio: %)

Types of extreme events

Intensity

Strong Moderate Weak Depend DNK

Typhoon 52.6 21.6 19.6 6.2 0.0

Tropical low

pressure 51.0 23.5 19.4 6.1 0.0

Whirlwind 53.7 29.6 13.0 3.7 0.0

Lightning 63.8 21.3 9.6 5.3 0.0

Heavy rain 51.9 15.6 14.3 18.2 0.0

Inundation 19.4 25.8 45.2 9.7 0.0

Sea level rise 38.9 11.1 38.9 5.6 5.6

Saltwater intrusion 21.1 15.8 47.4 10.5 5.3

Extreme hot

weather 95.8 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

Damaging cold 32.2 25.4 33.9 8.5 0.0

Hail 75.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Drought 53.3 20.0 16.7 10.0 0.0

Hoarfrost 35.7 42.9 9.5 11.9 0.0

Other 84.2 10.5 0.0 5.3 0.0

Table 3.21 The calendar of events about extreme events

Year Types of extreme

events Damages

2003 Inundation 40% of rice area were flooded; 100% vegetable and aquaculture area were damaged

2005

Inundation The whole commune was flooded People were evacuated to a safe place Typhoon No

Many pond banks were broken; 80% of vegetables and 40% of rice areas were flooded; 30% of poultry died

People were evacuated to a safe place

2008

Damaging cold in

February Many areas of rice seeds and newly transplanted rice fields died Drought lasted months 80% of vegetables and rice areas were damaged

2010 Damaging cold lasts 38

days

100% of the areas of vegetables, rice seeds and rice were damaged; many aquaculture households were affected

2011 Damaging cold Newly transplanted rice fields died or were poorly developed

2012 Typhoon Son Tinh

(Typhoon No 8)

+ 60% of pure rice which had not been harvested were damaged; + 100% of vegetable areas were damaged;

+ 50% of clam farming was damaged; + 100% of auxiliary works were damaged;

+ More than 80% of freshwater aquaculture areas were damaged; + 100% of corrugated iron houses were unroofed;

+ houses collapsed

2013

Typhoon No 1, and Vegetable and rice areas were affected

Year Types of extreme

events Damages

2014 Heavy rain Salt concentration in aquaculture areas felt below 10‰ leading to shrimps and clams death and growth retardation

2015 Northeast monsoon and

damaging cold Impacted on production activities, especially affected on aquaculture and fishing households

2016

Damaging cold Affected production activities Typhoon No

- 100% of vegetable and transplanted rice field areas as well as aquaculture ponds were damaged; - Many cattle and poultry died

Total losses amounted to VND 26.7 billion

2017 Typhoon No 2, and 10

Tropical low pressure caused heavy rain in combination with the water from Hoa Binh

hydropower reservoir to create floods in river, which greatly affected agricultural production in Giao An

2018 Typhoon No

combined with lightning

- Affected production activities and daily life of the people; - Some household TVs were broken by lightning

3.3.2 Climate change and sea level rise scenarios for Giao An commune

Giao An is a commune of Giao Thuy district, Nam Dinh province Therefore, the thesis uses CC and SLR scenarios developed for Giao Thuy district under the RCP 4.5 scenario In particular, it includes changes in temperature and rainfall for the three periods of the 21st century, which are the beginning of the century (2016 - 2035), the middle of the century (2045 - 2065) and the end of the century (2080 - 2099) compared to the baseline period of 1986 - 2005) However, there is no mention of SLR in Giao Thuy district scenario For this reason, data related to SLR has been updated in Climate Change Response Action Plan of Nam Dinh province in the period of 2011 - 2015 and vision to 2020

a Temperature

The average annual temperature and the average temperature by seasons, as well as the annual maximum and minimum temperature of Giao Thuy district in the period of 2016 – 2099 tend to increase The average annual temperature increases by 0.6˚C at the beginning of the 21st century, about 1.6˚C in the middle of the century and 2.1˚C at the end of the century compared to the period of 1986 – 2005 Moreover, average temperature increases most in summer and increases least in winter (Table 3.22)

Table 3.22 The increase in temperature in Giao Thuy district compared to the baseline period under RCP 4.5 scenario

(Unit:˚C)

Temperature

Timeline The

beginning of the 21st century (2016 – 2035)

The middle of the 21st

century (2046 – 2065)

The end of the 21st century (2080 – 2099)

Average annual temperature 0.6 1.6 2.1

Average winter temperature 0.6 1.5 2.0

Average spring temperature 0.7 1.5 2.2

Average summer temperature 0.7 1.6 2.3

Average autumn temperature 0.6 1.6 2.2

Annual maximum

temperature 0.6 1.8 2.2

Annual mimimun temperature 0.7 1.5 2.1

b Rainfall

The average annual rainfall of Giao Thuy district tends to increase in all periods of the 21st century However, at the beginning of the 21st century, average winter and spring rainfall tend to decrease In the middle and at the end of the 21st century, the average winter rainfall continues to reduce Meanwhile, average autumn rainfall in Giao Thuy district has the highest increase in the year in all three periods (Table 3.23)

Table 3.23 The increase in rainfall in Giao Thuy district compared to the baseline period under RCP 4.5 scenario

(Ratio: %)

Rainfall

Timeline The beginning

of the 21st century (2016 – 2035)

The middle of the 21st century

(2046 – 2065)

The end of the 21st century (2080 – 2099)

Average annual rainfall 10.3 16.7 23.6

Average winter rainfall -7.4 -2.9 -10

Average spring rainfall -3.6 11.9 24.9

Average summer rainfall 9.5 14.5 18.7

Average autumn rainfall 33 32 46.8

(Source: Department of Natural Resources and Environment of Nam Dinh province, 2019)

c Sea level rise

Each year, the sea level rises to about 2.15mm Along with that, the coastline has encroached on an average of 10m Sea level is forecasted to rise from 12 to 74 cm in the period of 2020 – 2100 compared with 1980 – 1999, the total flooded area of Nam Dinh province is 61,71 km2 In which, 34.27 km2 of Giao Thuy and 20.9 km2 of Hai Hau as well as 6.54 km2 of Nghia Hung are flooded (People's Committee of Nam Dinh Province, 2011) The entire flooded part of the province is a coastal area, including Giao An commune Thus, Giao An is strongly affected by CC and SLR 3.3 Impacts of climate change on main livelihood activities of Giao An commune

climatic and weather factors change lead to an increase in vulnerability to these livelihoods

Climate change impacts on the main livelihood activities were assessed through factors such as production activities, income, daily life, health and infrastructures of households in the research site

3.3.1 Climate change impacts on production activities

According to 74.0% of the surveyed households, CC and the abnormalities of extreme events have affected their production activities

a Agricultural activities

The survey results showed that rice farming of Giao An commune took place from January to October according to the lunar calendar In which, there were main rice seasons such as the autumn-winter crop occurred from June to October and the spring-summer crop happened from January to May of the lunar calendar

Besides, Giao An commune had vegetable seasons consisting of growing melons and jicama which went on from February to October of the lunar calendar In addition, households still grew other vegetables to serve their daily life and business activities

Moreover, livestock husbandry was carried out all year round

Table 3.24 Seasonal calendar in agricultural and fishery activities of households in Giao An commune

(according to the lunar calendar)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

I Agricultural activities

1 Rice

farming x x x x x x x x x x

1.1 Autumn-winter crop (vụ mùa) x Transplant

x x x

Harvest x Harvest 1.2 Spring-summer crop (vụ chiêm) x

Transplant x x x

x Harvest

Vegetable farming

x x x x x x x x x

2.1 Growing melons2 x Plant x

Plant x x

x Harvest x Harvest 2.2 Growing jicama

x x x x

3 Livestock

husbandry x x x x x x x x x x x x

II Fishery activities

1 Fishing x x x x x x x x x x x x

2

Aquaculture 2.1 Clam farming 3

x Renovate x Renovate x Reproduction x First x Second x Second/ x

First x x x x

x Harvest

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

pond pond period –

Choose

stock stock (if any)

third stock (if any)

havrvest all

2.2 Extensive shrimp farming4 x Renovate pond x First stock x Second stock (if any)

x x

x First havrest x First havrest x x Harvest all x Renovat pond x Renovat pond x Renovat pond 2.3 Intensive whiteleg shrimp farming x Stock x

Stock x x

x Harvest x Harvest 2.4 Softshell turtle farming5 x x Reproduction period x Reproduction period

x x x x x x Hibernate x Hibernate x x

III Extreme events

1 Typhoon, tropical low pressure

x x x x x

2 Heavy

rain x x x x

3 Extreme

hot weather x x x

4 Hoarfrost x x x

5

Damaging cold

x x x

- Rice farming

In general, according to the evaluation of the surveyed households, the extreme events that affected the rice cultivation activities were "typhoon", "tropical low pressure", "heavy rain", "inundation", “extreme hot weather", "damaging cold", "hoarfrost" and "other" which were mentioned as the changes in climate and weather factors

In particular, "typhoon", "tropical low pressure", "heavy rain", "inundation", "damaging cold" and "hoarfrost" were evaluated to reduce the productivity of rice and cause dead plants, worse could lead to crop failures Besides, the "extreme hot weather" also made rice plants grow slowly (70.0%) (Table 3.25)

- Vegetable farming

"Extreme hot weather", "damaging cold", "hoarfrost" and "other" which were mentioned as the changes in climate and weather factors were considered to impact vegetable farming of Giao An commune They not only reduced crop production but also caused vegetable death (Table 3.26)

- Livestock husbandry

Surveyed households assessed that "typhoons", "extreme hot weather", "damaging cold", "hoarfrost" and "other" which were the changes in climate and weather factors affected livestock husbandry activities

Table 3.25 Assessment of the extreme events and climate change impacts on rice farming

(Ratio: %)

Types of extreme events

Cultivated area decreased

Productivity reduced

Plants grew slowly

Shortage of irrigation

water

Many epidemics

The soil was eroded and

degraded

Crop failures

Dead

plants Flooding

Typhoon 4.0 54.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 50.0 60.0 60.0

Tropical low

pressure 0.0 54.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.0 30.0

Heavy rain 2.0 64.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 20.0 50.0 80.0

Inundation 2.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 40.0 0.0

Saltwater

intrusion 2.0 20.0 0.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Extreme hot

weather 18.0 20.0 70.0 40.0 24.0 0.0 26.0 10.0 0.0

Damaging

cold 20.0 42.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 28.0 0.0

Drought 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Hoarfrost 2.0 62.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.0 10.0 0.0

Table 3.26 Assessment of the extreme events and climate change impacts on vegetable farming (Ratio: %) Types of extreme events Cultivated area decreased Productivity reduced Plants grew slowly Shortage of irrigation water Many epidemics The soil was eroded and degraded Crop failures Dead vegetables Extreme hot weather

0.0 35.7 0.0 20.8 8.3 0.0 0.0 50.0

Damaging

cold 0.0 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 45.8

Hoarfrost 0.0 33.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.7 66.7

Other 0.0 29.6 0.0 0.0 29.6 0.0 0.0 8.3

Table 3.27 Assessment of the extreme events and climate change impacts on livestock husbandry

(Ratio: %)

Types of extreme events Grow slowly Many epidemics Difficulty eating Dead loss Broken cages and equipment Dead livestock

Typhoon 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.2 42.2 0.0

Extreme hot weather 62.2 33.3 28.9 0.0 0.0 53.3

Damaging cold 0.0 0.0 33.3 0.0 0.0 11.1

Hoarfrost 57.8 26.7 0.0 6.7 0.0 28.9

Other 0.0 13.3 0.0 4.4 0.0 22.2

b Fishery activities

- Fishing: Surveyed households emphasized that weather and climate were reasons for the decline in fishing production Not only that, if "typhoon", "tropical low pressure", "heavy rain", "extreme hot weather" or "damaging cold" occurred, households would temporarily also stop production activities

- Aquaculture

The extreme events were assessed to affect aquaculture activities in Giao An commune comprising "typhoon", "tropical low pressure", "heavy rain", "saltwater intrusion", "extreme hot weather", "damaging cold”, "hoarfrost" and "other” which were the changes in climate and weather Disasters that reduced the productivity of aquaculture listed by survey respondents include typhoon (39.3%), tropical low pressure (17.9%) and heavy rain (32.1%) The changing water environment was due to typhoon (7.2%), heavy rain (32.1%) and saltwater intrusion (39.3%) Typhoon (14.3%), tropical low pressure (7.2%), saltwater intrusion (21.4%), damaging cold (39.3%) and hoarfrost (39.3%) resulted in the dead loss Moreover, extreme hot weather (42.9%), damaging cold (32.1%) and hoarfrost (14.3%) were the cause of the death of aquatic species (Table 3.28)

Table 3.28 Assessment of the extreme events and climate change impacts on aquaculture

(Ratio: %) Types of

extreme events

Grow slowly

Productivity reduced

Water environment

changes

Many disease

Difficulty eating

Dead loss

Dead aquatic

species

Typhoon 3.6 39.3 7.2 0.0 0.0 14.3 0.0

Tropical low

pressure 0.0 17.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.2 0.0

Heavy rain 0.0 32.1 32.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Sea level

rise 0.0 0.0 39.3 0.0 0.0 21.4 0.0

Extreme hot

weather 10.7 0.0 0.0 10.7 10.7 7.1 42.9

Damaging

cold 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 39.3 32.1

Hoarfrost 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 39.3 14.3

3.3.2 Climate change impacts on income

Climate change and the irregularities of extreme weather events have influenced the income of 49.0% of surveyed households In particular, "extreme hot weather" great affected their income with the highest percentage of 64.6% Other being the changes in climate and weather were assessed as one of the factors that had a major impact on household income (100.0%) (Table 3.29)

Table 3.29 Assessment of the extreme events and climate change impacts on family income

(Ratio: %)

Types of extreme events

Level of impact Major

impact

Moderate impact

Small impact

No significant impact

Typhoon 18.8 4.2 2.1 75.0

Tropical low pressure 6.1 4.1 2.0 87.8

Heavy rain 13.2 0.0 0.0 86.8

Inundation 7.1 0.0 0.0 92.9

Extreme hot weather 64.6 0.0 0.0 35.7

Damaging cold 31.4 0.0 0.0 68.6

Drought 7.1 0.0 0.0 92.9

Hoarfrost 41.9 0.0 0.0 58.1

Other 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.3.3 Climate change impacts on daily life

37.0% of the surveyed households thought that CC and the irregularity of extreme events had greatly effects on their daily life, especially “extreme hot weather” (60.0%) and “lightning” (18.3%) In Giao An and several neighboring communes, there have been many deaths from lightning Therefore, people are quite afraid to go to the street when lightning occurs and they will unplug all power outlets to avoid electric shock or fire of household appliances Other mentioned by households were the changes in climate and weather (Table 3.30)

Table 3.30 Assessment of the extreme events and climate change impacts on daily life (Ratio: %)

Types of extreme events Level of impact

Major impact

Moderate impact

Small impact

No significant impact

Types of extreme events Level of impact Major

impact

Moderate impact

Small impact

No significant impact

Tropical low pressure 2.7 5.4 0.0 91.9

Lightning 18.8 0.0 0.0 81.3

Heavy rain 3.8 0.0 0.0 96.2

Inundation 9.1 0.0 0.0 90.9

Extreme hot weather 60.0 0.0 2.9 37.1

Damaging cold 29.2 0.0 4.2 66.7

Hoarfrost 10.7 0.0 0.0 89.3

Other 80.0 0.0 0.0 20.0

3.3.4 Climate change impacts on health

63.0% of the surveyed households said that climate change and the abnormality of extreme events had major significant impacts on their health status When health was not guaranteed, livelihood activities were also affected "Extreme hot weather" was a phenomenon that influenced the health of 73.8% of households (Table 3.31) Diseases mentioned by respondents included flu, illness and diseases related to ears, nose, throat…

Table 3.31 Assessment of the extreme events and climate change impacts on health (Ratio: %)

Types of extreme events

Level of impact Major

impact

Moderate impact

Major impact

No significant impact

Typhoon 3.3 0.0 0.0 96.7

Lightning 1.8 0.0 0.0 98.2

Heavy rain 2.0 0.0 0.0 98.0

Extreme hot weather 73.8 0.0 0.0 26.2

Damaging cold 26.3 0.0 2.6 71.1

Hoarfrost 15.7 0.0 0.0 84.3

Other 93.3 0.0 0.0 6.7

3.3.5 Climate change impacts on infrastructures

with a rate of over 50.0% The remaining such as extreme hot weather, hoarfrost and damaging cold had a lower impact rate of 11.1% to 20.0% (Table 3.32)

Table 3.32 Assessment of the extreme events and climate change impacts on infrastructures

(Ratio: %)

Types of extreme events

Level of impact Major

impact Moderate impact Major impact No significant impact

Typhoon 50.0 0.0 0.0 50.0

Lightning 55.6 0.0 0.0 44.4

Inundation 50.0 0.0 0.0 50.0

Extreme hot weather 11.1 0.0 0.0 88.9

Damaging cold 20.0 0.0 0.0 80.0

Hoarfrost 14.3 0.0 0.0 85.7

It can be seen that CC and the irregularity of extreme events have a great impact on productivity and seasons such as changing crop structure and seed structure as well as increasing the risk of spreading pests on crops, epidemics in cattle and poultry The manifestations of CC in the coming time are forecasted, which will have a stronger impact on the livelihood activities of the people here The impacts of CC on Giao An people's livelihoods are summarized in Table 3.33 as follows:

Table 3.33 Summary of the impacts of extreme events by climate change on the livelihood of people in Giao An commune

Types of extreme events

Impacts

Cultivation Livestock

husbandry

Fishery

Extreme hot weather

- Arable land becomes dry and degraded

(productivity decreases)

- Water resources for plants are scarce - Worker's health is affected (by

heatstroke)

- Pets grow slowly; - Anorexia (Loss of appetite) in pets; - Extreme hot weather can cause pets to die (due to heatstroke);

- Worker's health is affected (by

heatstroke)

- The temperature of water supply for aquaculture will increase, which causes aquaculture species to die; - Worker's health is affected (by

Types of extreme events

Impacts

Cultivation Livestock

husbandry

Fishery

Heavy rains are concentrated during the rainy

season (Inundation)

- Arable land is flooded;

- Crop productivities reduce;

- Maybe a crop failure

- Breeding facilities are destroyed and degraded;

- Livestock may die leading to a loss in livestock

- Dykes and embankments of aquaculture ponds are destroyed or degraded; - The water environment is changed; - Productivity reduces;

- Production loss in aquaculture

Damaging cold

- Young rice seedlings die; - Productivity reduces; - Maybe crop failure;

- Worker health is affected

Livestock may die The temperature of water supply for aquaculture is cold, which causes aquaculture species to die Hoarfrost - Productivity reduces; - Dead trees; - Maybe crop failures;

- Worker's health is affected

- Pets grow slowly; - Pets died

- Productivity reduces;

- Production loss in aquaculture

3.4 Resilience to climate change of Giao An commune

Thus, the resilience to CC of Giao An commune is the ability of the commune to withstand the direct or indirect impacts caused by CC After such impacts, the locality may change or adjust, overcome losses and continue to develop

Assessing the resilience to CC of Giao An commune was considered through two main subjects including (1) households (their response plans); (2) local authorities (infrastructures for disaster prevention and preparedness as well as natural disaster response, search and rescue plans)

3.4.1 Resilience to climate change of households in Giao An commune

In response to CC as well as extreme events, 99.0% of households had actively approached relevant information through media (TV, newspaper, internet, ) (96.0%); Department of flood and storm control/commune and hamlet officials (68.0%) and Border posts (3.1%)

In addition, most of the surveyed households (81.0%) had prepared before the disaster The activity most implemented was reinforcing the house (75.0%) Besides, households also prepared necessary items such as bamboo, sandbags (24.0%) to support local authorities as materials to prevent floods and typhoons However, 19.0% of people did not have any prepared plans because they lived in permanent houses and they thoughts people could not resist nature, extreme events and climate (Table 3.34)

Table 3.34 Preparations of households participating in the survey before the disaster occurs

(Ratio: %)

Preparation Valid

percentage Preparation

Valid percentage

Reinforce the house 75.0 Move pets to a safe shelter 13.0 Find a safe shelter in

advance 23.0

Remodel animal cages

10.0

Reserve food and water 19.0 Early harvest 5.0

Prepare cooking utensils 11.0 Nothing 19.0

Move furniture to a high

place 15.0

Prepare necessary items

received knowledge to identify types of natural disasters and extreme events in the locality; 82.6% were equipped with the knowledge of contingency plans necessary such as four on-the-spot motto; and 6.3% were provided with knowledge about means and supplies that need to be prepared to prevent/respond to disasters This knowledge had been updated annually by People's Committee of Giao An commune and exchanged through community meetings as well as distributed in the local media

Moreover, 21.0% of the survey participants or their family members participated in the natural disaster control and rescue rehearsal of Giao An commune Now, they have become one of the members of commune disaster prevention forces

Regarding the recommendations of households to minimize risks of CC and extreme events, 29.0% of households agreed with actively sharing information and experiences in the locality and strengthening communication on prevention of natural disaster risks in production activities; 27.0% concurred with strengthening early warning system; increasing local infrastructure investment and improving the irrigation transport system accounted for 21.0%; enhancing environmental protection made up with 21.0% of the consensus The last two recommendations which occupied 20.0% and 17.0% of the consensus respectively were strengthening natural resource management and strengthening support through social protection and risk management policies (Table 3.35)

Table 3.35 Recommendations of the households participating in the survey to reduce the risk of extreme events in production activities

(Ratio: %)

Recommendation Valid percentage

Strengthen natural resources management 20.0

Strengthen early warning system 27.0

Increase support through social protection and risk

management policies 17.0

Actively share information and experiences in the locality and the strengthen communication on prevention of natural disaster risks in production activities

29.0 Increase local infrastructure investment and improve the

=> People in Giao An commune had been more active in receiving information related to CC as well as extreme events Households had solidarity with local authorities with organizations and unions to cope with the adverse impacts of CC as well as complicated evolution of nature Moreover, they had basic preparations to protect their properties such as houses, livestock,… However, there were fewer plans for production activities in agriculture and fishery Besides, the percentage of households that were disseminated knowledge was not high as well as the percentage of people who had not joined in natural disaster control and rescue rehearsal of the locality was quite low Therefore, the resilience to CC of households in Giao An commune was assessed at an average level

3.4.2 Resilience to climate change of local authorities

a Infrastructure

The whole commune had 3.3 km of dykes outside the central dyke that were solidified The quality of the dyke was good enough to withstand typhoons above level 12 Besides, the protective stone embankment was built to help the dyke system to ensure good quality Moreover, the drain had no water leakage All helps to drain water quickly when extreme events occur in the locality However, the drainage system in the hamlet 12 had been degraded and had not been repaired, which made the difficulties for inspection and rescue if necessary In addition, the encroachment of rivers and streams to raise ducks and fishes also causes congestion affecting the river basin (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2018c)

b Disaster response, search and rescue

- General response plan

* Protection of natural disaster prevention and control works

well the plan of planting and protecting protective mangroves and trees; Regularly check and timely renovate public works, such as bridges, drainage systems, roads serving migration and shelters for people, such as schools, health stations and Headquarters of the Commune People's Committee, cultural houses in each hamlet (USAID, 2017)

* Plans and locations for evacuation, protection of people, properties and production When there are warnings about typhoons and floods, each hamlet actively organizes the evacuation of people according to the prepared plan, especially paying attention to activities that must be carried out at least 12 hours before the disaster strikes (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2017c)

* Ensuring security and social order, traffic, contact information during the executive command

In order to protect people's property and ensure security and social order in the commune, the commune police built a 24-hour duty assignment plan for the hamlets (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2017c)

During and after the disaster, ensuring the main roads in the commune and the traffic must be smooth Besides, the militia forces have a specific assignment plan for the roads to quickly remove broken and fallen trees Commune Culture and Information Officials coordinate with communal cultural post offices in inspecting information lines and radio systems, ensuring quick restoration of warning and communication systems (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2017c)

* Coordinating directing, commanding disaster prevention, response and search and rescue

Collaborate with the Police, Military Command, the Youth of Ho Chi Minh Communist Youth Union and the Farmer's Association to quickly respond to incidents (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2017c)

- Disaster response plans for some specific natural disasters * For typhoons and tropical low pressures

- Before a typhoon hits the area: When there is warning information of typhoons in the East Sea, Commune Culture and Information Officials informs all people to prevent (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2017c)

- When a typhoon approaches the area or and an emergency typhoon: Notify boats and ships that are not allowed to go to the sea to exploit aquatic products Organize evacuation of people from dangerous areas or unsafe places; focus on implementing measures to ensure safety for people, especially vulnerable people in emergency natural disasters (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2017c) * For inundation

- Cooperatives adjust the structure of crops, livestock, crop seasons by forecasts, warnings and situations of natural disasters Organize early harvesting to avoid damage (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2017c)

- Militia and volunteer forces are ready to carry out search and rescue activities to treat injured people The Red Cross Association is willing to provide food, medicine and other necessities in isolated areas and inundated areas (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2017c)

* For other natural disasters

Based on forecasts, warnings, nature and actual developments of each type of natural disaster, specific measures are implemented proactively carried out (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2017c)

"forecasting", "prevention", "rescue” and “recovery” activities at the “good” level with 75.0%, 74.0%, 67.0% and 73.0% respectively

=> Since then, Giao An commune was active in natural disaster response and search and rescue through the development of plans Although there were still violations of encroachment on the dyke protection corridors, water flows to serve irrigation or fishing, raising ducks which affected the management of irrigation Besides, the preparation of "four on-the-spot motto" was a little confusing Moreover, disaster response plans for some specific natural disasters focus mainly on typhoons and tropical low pressure as well as inundation Other natural disasters have not been considered in planning, while CC and extreme events are becoming more complex Therefore, the resilience to CC of local authorities was assessed to be at a high average In general, the resilience to CC of Giao An commune was rated at an average level 3.5 Solutions for developing sustainable and climate-resilient livelihoods 3.5.1 Proposed principle

Some general principles and requirements for proposing solutions to develop sustainable and climate-resilient livelihoods for people in Giao An commune include:

- Enhancing the capacity of livelihood assets consistent with household capacity conditions and local conditions;

- Ensuring benefits for local people and local authorities;

- Increasing the adaptability of livelihoods to one or more manifestations of CC; reducing household vulnerability in the context of natural disasters/extreme events;

- Ensuring simultaneous economic, social and environmental benefits, contributing to biodiversity conservation and maintenance of ecosystem services

- Contributing to raising awareness and capacity of the community;

3.5.2 Groups of solutions

Based on the research results as well as some proposed principles, the main groups of solutions were proposed

a Group of general solutions based on livelihood assets

* Solutions to support and enhance human capital

Firstly, organizing training courses, short-term and long-term courses depending on the characteristics of the livelihoods to equip necessary knowledge and skills in production activities in the context of CC

- Expectations: Enhancing knowledge and skills related to production activities such as applying science and technology as well as accessing information and markets in the context of CC; reducing risks of extreme events and CC in production activities - How to do: People's Committee of Giao An commune, Commune Agricultural Production Steering Board, Farmer’s Association and Cooperatives need to identify local training needs (number of participants; content, form of training; time; location; wishes as well as aspirations of the people) through individual household surveys Next, People's Committee of Nam Dinh province, Department of Natural Resources and Environment of Nam Dinh province as well as Department of Agriculture and Rural Development of Nam Dinh province combined with Giao Thuy Division of Agriculture and Rural Development, People's Committee of Giao An commune, Commune Agricultural Production Steering Board, Farmer's Association and Cooperatives jointly develop training programs appropriate to the local situation as well as the people Experts of the provincial People's Committees, departments, agencies, districts and communes directly train and implement the practice Besides, they monitor the results to solve the difficulties and problems of people in the implementation process

Secondly, organizing community events combined with contests related to CC

and efficient use of natural resources Moreover, the contests are to mobilize the participation of all people as well as to create two-way interaction between households with each other or between households and local authorities Besides, to promote the image of the community to actively participate in climate-resilient activities

- How to do: These community meetings can be organized at mass organizations such as Women's Union, Farmer's Union Or they can be divided into hamlets The Cultural and Information Department of Giao An commune and the Commune People's Committee study the organization of these events

* Solutions to support and enhance social capital

Firstly, creating links with farming ponds, garment factories, factories, companies, businesses as well as recruiters and building a system of free recruitment website (both full-time and part-time jobs) for the locals

- Expectation: Creating supplementary livelihoods for households, diversifying income sources, strengthening the adaptive capacity of household livelihoods against CC impacts; creating opportunities and making the most of local resources; creating linkages between local authorities and farming ponds, garment factories, factories, companies, businesses and recruiters

- How to it: Farming ponds, garment factories, enterprises, companies and recruiters actively contact the local authorities about the job position It is possible to take full advantage of Giao An Commune People’s Committee website and create a local recruitment section For example, a garment factory looking for a few people to embroidered floral patterns on the ao dai needs to contact local authorities After that, the local authorities will post the recruitment information Applications can be submitted directly via that website as well as be submitted directly at the employer

Secondly, the local authorities actively create linkages between traders, agricultural companies and production households

- How to do: Local authorities, People's Committee of Giao Thuy district help to build this linkage

Thirdly, the authorities work with local people to develop effective production teams/groups

- Expectations: creating linkages between producers and between households and production teams/groups, increasing incomes and improving climate resilience through mutual assistance

- How to it: Local authorities and people build production teams/groups For example, establishing an aquaculture farming group with the task of equipping necessary knowledge and skills in aquaculture through exchanging, sharing experiences as well as supporting and helping each other in finance, machinery or equipment Or establishing a rice-vegetable cooperation group for propaganda, mobilizing people to develop farming activities as well as exchanging relevant knowledge and techniques At the same time, taking advantage of available labor and creating jobs for local people

* Solutions to support and enhance natural capital

Firstly, strengthening the management of natural resources and environmental protection, especially the need to improve the effectiveness of community-based natural resources management

- Expectations: Sustainable and effective use of natural resources, no harm to the environment, minimizing and preventing negative impacts from CC and extreme events; engaging and enhancing the role of the community

- How to do: Local authorities, mass organizations and XTNP formulate plans to strengthen natural resources management and improve the effectiveness of community-based management

Secondly, studying and developing a strategy for developing community-based ecotourism for communes in the buffer zone of XTNP

about environmental protection, coping with CC and developing sustainable livelihoods in harmony with the goal of nature conservation with economic development

- How to do: The Government, local authorities of communes in buffer zone, XTNP together with Department of Culture, Sports and Tourism of Nam Dinh province and Division of Culture and Information of Giao Thuy district need to study and assess the local available conditions to develop community-based ecotourism activities for the buffer zone communes, then identify strengths for development, develop and pilot models in Giao An commune In addition, it is necessary to improve the quality of management, enhance propaganda and change awareness for officials, local people and tourists about environmental protection through leaflets on environment, CC Finally, investing in assisting people to change their livelihoods most effectively is needed

* Solutions to support and increase physical capital

Firstly, continuing investing and building to improve the quality of infrastructure and public works in the context of CC

- Expectations: Improving the quality of infrastructure and public works while minimizing the impacts and risks caused by CC

- How to do: Continuing to strengthen management and investment in maintenance of Dien Bien dyke in hamlet 17; Repairing the drainage system in hamlet 22 to protect residents and production; Deploying dismantling, cleaning and handling activities of individuals and organizations that obstruct irrigation systems for convenient drainage; Increasing investment in irrigation systems taking into account the impact of CC; Deploying activities of cutting down branches and trees which are unsafe for architectural works and electrical networks, transmission lines as well as for people; Repairing and maintaining the loudspeaker system to ensure smooth communication when natural disasters occur

Secondly, investing, building and upgrading early warning systems in Giao An commune

- How to do: Department of Natural Resources and Environment of Nam Dinh Province, Division of Natural Resources and Environment of Giao Thuy district, together with local authorities and related experts coordinate with local people to identify appropriate locations to build the network of disaster monitoring and warning system * Solutions to support and enhance financial capital

Firstly, enhancing access to finance more easily

- Expectations: Developing production activities of local people

- How to do: Local authorities, banks, non-bank financial institutions and mass organizations need to assess the people's borrowing needs, their aspirations and their expectations to have appropriate support policies

Secondly, research on the implementation of agricultural insurance and natural disaster insurance

- Expectations: Limiting risks related to production activities, ensuring stability income for people to increase production, improving their capacity to cope with weather, climate and natural disasters

- How to do: Local authorities of the commune study this problem and can pilot the insurance on rice

b Group of specific solutions for each livelihood to cope with each extreme event

* Solutions for agricultural livelihoods - Cultivation:

+ Extreme hot weather and damaging cold: Researching, selecting, cultivating and propagating crops that are drought-resistant, saline-resistant and resistant to high/low temperatures

+ Hoarfrost: Proactively following the daily weather news and taking measures to prevent the damage caused by hoarfrost For example, for rice and vegetables, it is necessary to apply solutions such as covering with plastic according to the technical guidance of the agricultural organizations Or areas with mild damage need to enhance care, water and use organic fertilizer

- Livestock husbandry:

+ Extreme hot weather: Using some measures of sun and heat protection for animals such as creating a cool space for pets by planting shade trees around the breeding facilities, growing vines directly on the roof For the time of intense heat, water should be sprayed directly on the roof of the barn or directly into the barn to cool Limit transportation of livestock when the weather is hot Need to provide and supplement electrolyte water for them

+ Heavy rain: Repairing and raising the barn floor, moving animals to safe shelters

+ Hoarfrost, damaging cold: Do not release cattle and poultry outside; keep pets warm; carefully cover livestock cages/barns by using canvas or plastic For cattle, fuel needs to be stored for heating but ventilation holes are needed to avoid toxic gas Meanwhile, for cattle, light lamps are used and vaccines are vaccinated according to regulations

* Solutions to fishery livelihoods

- Aquaculture: For all types of extreme events: Upgrading the outer dyke system to limit wave impact to ponds; Instructing and urging the people to harvest before the rainy season; Strengthening monitoring changes in the weather, combining research on specific farming models for each water surface area with the appropriate type; Improving ponds and lagoons in the context of CC; Regularly monitoring the quality of water environment and epidemics to timely notify fishermen, as well as support to overcome and avoid spread; Studying the aquaculture planning

CHAPTER CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Conclusion

Currently, there are 10 different types of livelihoods in Giao An commune In particular, agriculture and fisheries are the main livelihoods accounting for a large proportion of the local economic structure

Livelihood assets for main livelihood development were assessed to be at medium-high In which, human and financial capitals were insufficient and weak For human capital, the educational level was low; the rate of training in production activities was low; there were some limitations on the application of scientific and technical advances as well as access to information and markets Moreover, people's awareness of CC was limited For financial capital, most households did not have saving and access to loans was limited as well as profit from rice farming was quite low

Climate change was present during 1989 - 2018 The average annual temperature tended to increase by about 0.3˚C per decade The total annual rainfall was variable and unevenly distributed throughout the year Natural disasters and extreme events were more unpredictable Besides, under the CC scenario of Giao Thuy district, these climatic factors as well as SLR were forecasted to take place more complicated in the whole district including Giao An commune

Households in Giao An were strongly affected by CC and extreme weather events, causing impacts on their production activities, income, daily life, health and infrastructure The types of extreme events affecting the agricultural and fishery livelihoods include extreme hot weather; heavy rains focus on the rainy season (inundation); damaging cold and hoarfrost

was violation of dyke protection corridor and flow to affect the management of irrigation The preparation of "four on-the-spot motto" was difficult for practice

To develop sustainable and climate-resilient livelihoods, the groups of solutions were proposed including (1) group of general solutions based on livelihood assets comprised contents, 11 actions and (2) group of specific solutions for each livelihood to cope with each extreme event consisted of contents, actions

Recommendation

Some contents have not been implemented as follows:

- A quantitative assessment of livelihood vulnerability such as livelihood vulnerability index (LVI); LVI – IPCC index and livelihood effect index (LEI);

- A quantitative assessment of the resilience to climate change of Giao An commune;

- Zoning to assess climate change impacts on each region: because Giao An commune can be divided into two regions: the area inside the central dyke and the area outside the dyke

The causes of the above contents can not be done yet are: - Limited time for research;

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LIST OF THE AUTHOR'S PUBLICATIONS

APPENDIX

Appendix 1: Measurement and evaluation of livelihood assets 103

1.1: Indicators and descriptions to measure and evaluate livelihood assets 103 1.2: Scores and conversion level of the secondary indicators were determined by the surveyed households and local authorities 105

Appendix 2: Tables related to expenses for main livelihood activities in Giao An commune 107

2.1: The surveyed households listed expenses related to rice cultivation 107 2.2: Prices of livestock breeds provided by the surveyed households 108 2.3: The surveyed households listed expenses related to livestock husbandry 109 2.4: The surveyed households listed expenses related to aquaculture 110

Appendix 3: Questionnaire, interview questions and participants 117

3.1: Questionnaire for local people 117 3.2: In-depth interview questions for local authorities 129 3.3: In-depth interview questions for local people 130 3.4: List of households participating in the questionnaire 131 3.5: List of civil services involved in in-depth interviews 132 3.6: List of households involved in in-depth interviews 133

Appendix 4: Data on temperature and rainfall at Nam Dinh meteorological station 133

4.1: Data on average monthly temperature for the period of 1989-2018 at Nam Dinh meteorological station 133 4.2: Data on total monthly rainfall for the period of 1989-2018 at Nam Dinh meteorological station 135

Appendix 1: Measurement and evaluation of livelihood assets

1.1: Indicators and descriptions to measure and evaluate livelihood assets

Primary

indicator Secondary indicator Evaluation question

Human capital

Dependency ratio

Number of household members; Number of people under working age; Number of people over working age; Number of people with sickness, illness, disease, disability and handicap; Number of people still need support from family

Health status What is your current health status? Good = 1; moderate = 2; weak = Education level6 What grade are you in?

Training on production activities to increase income

Do you have any training related to your production activities? Yes = 1; no =

Seniority in production activities How long does it take for the households to participate in production activities? Confidence level in occupation

skills

How you assess your current level of confidence in your occupational skills?

Not confident = 1; slightly confident = 2; somewhat confident = 3; fairly confident = 4; very confident =

Access to information/market How you evaluate your access to information/market? Very low = 1; low = 2; acceptable = 3; high = 4; very high = Climate change awareness Have you heard of the term climate change? Yes = 1; no =

In your opinion, what is climate change? What are the reasons?

Natural capital

Environmental quality (soil, water)

How is the quality of environment (soil, water) you are using in production? Very low = 1; low = 2; acceptable = 3; high = 4; very high =

Access to natural resources (including forests)

How you evaluate your access to natural resources (including mangroves)? Very low = 1; low = 2; acceptable = 3; high = 4; very high =

The support of natural resources to production activities

What is the level of support of natural resources to your production activities? Many = 5; moderate = 4; acceptable = 3; limited = 2; rarely =

Primary

indicator Secondary indicator Evaluation question

Social capital

Opportunities to receive help from families and relatives in

production

What is the willingness to help of families and relatives if you have difficulties in production activities?

Many = 5; moderate = 4; acceptable = 3; limited = 2; rarely = Relationship between producer

households

What is the role of the other households in your production activities?

No important= 1; slightly important = 2; important = 3; fairly important = 4; very important =

Relationship between producer households and production groups

What is the role of production groups in your production activities?

No important= 1; slightly important = 2; important = 3; fairly important = 4; very important =

Relationship between producer households and other

organizations and unions

What is the role of other organizations and unions in your production activities?

No important= 1; slightly important = 2; important = 3; fairly important = 4; very important =

Relationship between producer households and local authorities

What is the role of local authorities in your production activities?

No important= 1; slightly important = 2; important = 3; fairly important = 4; very important =

Community participation levels What is your level of participation in the community?

Rarely = 1; limited = 2; acceptable = 3; moderate = 4; many = Financial

capital

Income What is your annual income?

The ability to access financial capital

Do you have easy access to loans to develop production activities? Yes = 1; no =

Saving Do you have any savings? Yes = 1; no = Physical

capital

Housing conditions What is your assessment of the quality of your current housing? Very low = 1; low = 2; acceptable = 3; high = 4; very high = The quality of utilities How you assess the quality of your utilities?

Primary

indicator Secondary indicator Evaluation question

The quality of facilities used for production

How you assess the quality of your facilities used for your production? Very low = 1; low = 2; acceptable = 3; high = 4; very high =

The quality of infrastructure system

How you assess the infrastructure system in Giao An commune? Very low = 1; low = 2; acceptable = 3; high = 4; very high =

1.2: Scores and conversion level of the secondary indicators were determined by the surveyed households and local authorities

Primary indicator Secondary indicator Score Level

Human capital

Dependency ratio 2.25 Medium

Health status 3.25 Medium–high

Education level 1.5 Low–medium

Training on production activities to increase income 2.0 Medium

Seniority in production activities 3.5 Medium–high

Confidence level in occupation skills 3.25 Medium–high

Acess to information/market 1.5 Low–medium

Climate change awareness 2.0 Medium

Social capital

Opportunities to receive help from families and relatives in

production 4.0 High

Relationship between producer households 3.8 Medium–high

Relationship between producer households and production

groups 3.5 Medium–high

Relationship between producer households and other

organizations and unions 2.9 Medium

Relationship between producer households and local authorities 3.75 Medium–high

Community participation levels 3.25 Medium–high

Primary indicator Secondary indicator Score Level

Access to natural resources (including forests) 3.75 Medium–high The support of natural resources to production activities 3.75 Medium–high

Physical capital

Housing conditions 3.75 Medium–high

The quality of utilities 3.25 Medium–high

The quality of facilities used for production 3.125 Medium–high

The quality of infrastructure system 3.5 Medium–high

Finicial capital

Income 2.75 Medium

The ability to access financial capital 2.75 Medium

Appendix 2: Tables related to expenses for main livelihood activities in Giao An commune

2.1: The surveyed households listed expenses related to rice cultivation

No Expenses Amount (VND) Note

1

Paddy field rental (for 30.8% surveyed households who wanted to develop their production activities or had less cultivated area)

100 thousand - 120 thousand

Or 20 kg of paddy/sao/season Some households lent paddy fields for free Leveling the soil surface 300 thousand/working session The purpose of this is to easily transplant rice

3 Rice varieties

30 thousand - 100 thousand/sao/season Average 50 thousand – 60 thousand/sao/season

The rice varieties depend on household selection In Giao An, mainly used hybrid rice varieties such as 3-line hybrid rice variety II you 838 (nhị ưu 838); C ưu đa hệ số 1… as well as traditional rice varieties dự hương, bắc thơm số 7, nếp,… The yield of hybrid rice is higher than that of traditional rice

4 Transplanting rice

120 thousand - 150 thousand/sao or 250 thousand/working day (8 hours)

Some households this activity by themselves without hiring

5 Nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium

On average, season used + 15 kg of nitrogen fertilizer = 80 thousand;

+ 15 kg of phosphate fertilizer = 50 thousand;

+ kg of potassium = 40 thousand

Depending on the terrain of the field, the amount of fertilizer used is different

A small number of households also use organic fertilizer

6 Weeding 150 thousand/working session Some households this activity by themselves without hiring

No Expenses Amount (VND) Note

+ Hiring a harvester: 140 thousand/sao

8 Spraying pesticides

1 times spraying

+ Pesticides: 25 thousand – 50 thousand;

+ Hiring pesticide sprayers: 25 thousand and can add soft drinks, candies and cakes

On average, season sprays - times, maximum up to 10 times

Often sprays to limit brown planthopper (rầy nâu) and white-backes planthopper (rầy lưng trắng) as well as cnaphalocrocis medinalis (sâu nhỏ) and pyricularia oryzae cavara (đạo ôn) Spraying snail killer

1 times spraying

+ Snail killer: 30 thousand; + Hiring sprayers are similar to hiring pesticide sprayers

10 Spraying herbicide

1 times spraying

+ Herbicide: 30 thousand; + Hiring sprayers are similar to hiring pesticide sprayers 12 Agricultural production services (crop

management, irrigation and harvest) 30 thousand/sao/season 13 Transporting paddy 50 thousand/times

2.2: Prices of livestock breeds provided by the surveyed households

No Livestock breeds Amount (VND) Note

1 Poultry

No Livestock breeds Amount (VND) Note

Beautiful chicken 75 thousand/pair chicken is about 0.2 kg Chinese hybrid chicken 40 thousand/chicken

Broiler chicken 55 thousand/pair Dong Tao chicken 100 thousand/chicken

Goose 55 thousand/pair

Newly hatched duckling 15 thousand/duck

Grimaud duck 30 thousand/duck

Pigeon 320 thousand/pair

2 Cattle

Buffalo 80 million/pair

Buffalo calf 20 million/calf

Pig 500 thousand - 700 thousand/pig pig is about – kg Sow (female pig) million – 1.2 million/sow

Rabbit 300 thousand – 400 thousand/rabbit

2.3: The surveyed households listed expenses related to livestock husbandry

No Expenses Amount (VND) Note

1

Simple cage/barn million/m2

Larger-scale cage/barn (including the cost of equipping automatic pig

feeder, biogas tanks and drainage system) 100 million – 150 million

2 Industrial feed for poultry 300 thousand/bag of 25 kg

Chickens, ducks and geese are fed industrial food until their weight is about 1kg then combine with paddy and vegetables

Duck needs to feed rough fishes and snails to lay eggs

No Expenses Amount (VND) Note

for pigs is relatively much Each stage has a different industrial feed but on average, the price was about VND 15 thousand/kg

4 Drugs for prevention of chicken diseases (leprosy) thousand/package

A chicken drinks every

days/times until its weight is more than kg

5 Disinfectant for cage/barn 200 thousand/times

6 Pigeon cage 230 thousand/cage

Rabbit cage 200 thousand/cage

2.4: The surveyed households listed expenses related to aquaculture

No Expenses Amount (VND) Note

Producing baby clams

Clam pond rental 70 million – 110

million/ha/year

The rental price depends on the location and the lease term is up to 50 years

Improving the pond for the first time (dredging, pumping

sand) 300 million – 700 million/ha

Every year, households renovate lower clam farming grounds and spray sand into ponds

Improving the pond every year 100 million – 200 million/times

After harvesting, households need to wash, plow, dry and filter out the dirt of clam farming grounds This price includes labor costs Renovating drainage system 50 million – 70 million/year

Stocking seed clams xu = seed clam

400 million – 600 million/year

No Expenses Amount (VND) Note

about VND 800 million/ha

Piles and nets 10 million - 20 million/1

Nets used years must be replaced while piles must be replaced every year

Cleaning clam ponds machine, clam harvesters 20 million - 40 million/machine

Machines can be rented for VND 3.5 million/machine/working session (6 hours)

Generator 15 million/machine

The fee to connect to the national grid (kéo điện) 30 million – 100 million

1 km of electric wire is about VND 10 million (electricity is used for some aquaculture areas/some households)

Electricity price (three-phase electric power) million/ha/month

Pumping sand every year million/100m

3

sand carrier 20 million – 50 million/ha/year

Watchtower (simple) 20 million/watchtower

House (normal) 40 million/house

House with a water tank 200 million/house

Annual labor fee 100 million – 200 million/year

No Expenses Amount (VND) Note

other expenses such as soft drinks, fruits,…

Raising clams

Clam ground rental 50 million/ha/year Land rent rates vary from time to time

Buying clam grounds 200 million/ha Each household has for clam

farming

Watchtower 50 million/watchtower

In the past, watchtowers were made of bamboo and casuarina and now they were built by

high-voltage poles

Boat with 25 CV power engines 50 million - 100 million/piece One household used a boat to live instead of a watchtower

Stocking seed clams

From 500 to 700 clams with a weight of kg are stocked - 300 clams/kg costs thousand;

- 700 clams/kg costs 15 thousand

One times of stocking ranges 300 million – 500 million

Households sell 80 clams/kg for VND 10 thousand

Pumping sand every year million/ 100m

3

sand carrier 50 million – 70 million/ha/year

Solar power system 10 million Not all households use it

Battery million/battery For lighting

Cleaning clam ponds machine 50 million/machine Can rent

No Expenses Amount (VND) Note

10 million – 15 million/year Clam harvester rental and labor costs for clam harvesting 50 - 70 million/working

session Clams are harvested every years

Extensive shrimp farming

Shrimp pond rental 20 million – 70

million/pond/year

The rental price depends on the location of the pond and the time New shrimp ponds produce higher yields

Buying shrimp pond 200 million - 250 million/ha Before 1995, 17 were priced at VND 140 million

Cranking a shrimp pond 50 million

Improving the pond 20 million – 150

million/pond/year

This price depends on household economic conditions and pond area

For households who renovate the pond with large expenses, the pond improvement time will be longer Example: VND 100 million – 150 million, the pond will be improved after – years of use

On average, after – years of use, the pond needs improving

Stocking crab and shrimp seeds

15 million - 100 million/year On average, million – 10 million/ha

No Expenses Amount (VND) Note

released is different

Shrimp are about the size of a human hair while crabs are about the size of the bottom of the cup

The fee to connect to the national grid 18 million – 43 million

Electricity is used for some

aquaculture areas/some households Not every household connects to the national grid due to the high cost

House (simple) 15 million – 20 million/house

House (normal) 30 million – 70 million/house

Nets 10 million/year

Daily custodian 30 million – 60

million/year/person

Industrial feed in week 500 thousand

Drain 60 million – 120 million/drain

Shrimp ponds have to drains depending on the pond area On average, have drains

Drains used for 30 years must be replaced

Sluice gate (Phai cống) 1.5 million/pair drain needs – sluice gates

Battery million – million/battery

For households that not use electricity, there are - batteries for lighting

Oxygen machine million – 7million/machine To keep shrimp alive

No Expenses Amount (VND) Note

farming of the area outside the pond drains,

there is no cost of the land rental

Stocking oysters 100 million/ha Only for oyster farming

households in the mudflat

Boat 50 million/boat Only for oyster farming

households in the mudflat

Freshwater fish farming

Fish pond 10 million - 15 million/pond

Stocking fishes million – million/year

Depending on the needs as well as the area of the fish ponds of households

Industrial feed for fishes 500 thousand – million/year

In addition, the households also feed fishes with lots of

vegetables,

Softshell turtle farming

Softshell turtle pond 20 million – 50 million/pond On average, one household has ponds to raise softshell turtles

Softshell turtles 20 million/times

A trynox steinachderi is about VND 60 thousand and its size is equal to the big toe

A trionyx sinensis is about VND thousand and its size is equal the thumb

Rough fishes thousand - thousand/kg

The annual feed for turtles is about VND 20 thousand

Powdered fish meal 30 thousand/kg

Meat thousand/0.1kg

No Expenses Amount (VND) Note

live in polluted environment

Cleaning the pond million – million/year

Annual depreciation million

Intensive whiteleg shrimp farming

Total expenses 200 million/pond

In which:

Aerator is about VND 15 million/machine

Appendix 3: Questionnaire, interview questions and participants

3.1: Questionnaire for local people

VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY

MASTER’S PROGRAM IN CLIMATE CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT

HOUSEHOLD SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE

(Research on developing sustainable and climate–resilient livelihood in Giao An commune, Giao Thuy district, Nam Dinh province)

PART I: GENERAL INFORMATION

1 Name of

Respondent:…………

2 Address

(Hamlet):….……….………

3 Sex: Male Female

4 Year of birth

(Specify):……… ……….……… ……

5 You are: Local person

Moving from another place (Specify the year of transfer):…….………

6 Occupations (Multiple answers):

a Main occupation

b Secondary occupation

(If any)

c The reasons to choose a career

From generation to generation Do not know what else to No productive land Other (Specify): …………

- Agriculture

Rice farming 1.1 1.1

Vegetable farming 1.2 1.2

Livestock husbandry 1.3 1.3

- Fishery 2

Fishing 2.1 2.1

Aquaculture 2.2 2.2

- Civil service (official, public

servant, civil servant)

- Trading and commercial activities

- Making clothes

- Freelance

- Other (Specify):

7 Why you many works/ jobs at the same time? (Multiple answers)

Income from the main job is not stable Go to work for fun

Have free time Supplement your income

Other (Specify):

PART II: LIVELIHOOD ACTIVITIES

*HUMAN CAPITAL

8 How many people are there in your household (Including those who usually eat with the tray and stay in the same

house in the last year)?: ………

persons

List those members:…… ……….……….…

- Number of people under working age (children under 15): ………

- Number of people of working age (males aged 15 - 60; females aged 15 - 55): ………

- Number of people over working age (male over 60, female over 55): ………

- Number of young people who are attending school and still need family allowance: ………

9 Currently, does anyone in your family follow your occupation?

Yes No

If yes, who are

they?

If no, why? 10 Your education level

- Never been to school - High school

- Counter-illiteracy class - College

- Primary school - University

- Secondary school - Postgraduate school

Specify the class you have been

to:……….……… ……… …

11 How you assess your current health situation?

Good Moderate Weak

11.1 Does your health status affect your family's production activities?

Yes No

12 Do you have any training related to your production activities? Yes No

12.1 f yes, the activities in which you were trained are: (Multiple answers)

- Agriculture

Rice farming 1.1

Vegetable farming 1.2

Livestock husbandry 1.3

- Fishery

Fishing 2.1

Aquaculture 2.2

- Making clothes

- Other (Specify):……… …

12.2 Where was trained or what training program: 12.3 The form of training is:

Focused training (Training in Cultural House) At home

Remote training (Training in the computer) Other (Specify): 12.4 Would you like training more? Yes No

12.5 If yes, what you want to train more?

13 Do you have any experience in any of the following:

a Agriculture Yes No If yes, move to

question 13.1

If no, move to question 14

b Fishery Yes No

d Garment and services Yes No If yes, move to

question 13.2 e Other (Specify): Yes No

13.1 For a person in agriculture – fishery (Multiple answers)

Sector Activities

Years of experience

(Specify)

Where did that experience come from?

(Multiple answers)

The number of years operating in

the activity

Agriculture Rice farming

From the family

Sector Activities

Years of experience

(Specify)

Where did that experience come from?

(Multiple answers) The number of years operating in the activity Vegetable farming

From the family

From friends and neighbors

Self-taught through…… Other (Specify): Livestock

husbandry

From the family

From friends and neighbors

Self-taught through…… Other (Specify):

Fishery

Fishing

From the family

From friends and neighbors

Self-taught through…… Other (Specify):

Aquaculture

From the family

From friends and neighbors

Self-taught through…… Other (Specify): 13.2 For a person not belong to agriculture – fishery (Multiple answers)

Sector Activities

Years of experience

(Specify)

Where did that experience come from?

(Multiple answers)

The number of years operating in the activity

Garment and services

From the family

From friends and neighbors

Self-taught through…… Other (Specify): Other (Specify): ………

From the family

From friends and neighbors

Self-taught through…… Other (Specify):

14 How you assess your current level of confidence in your occupational skills? a Main

occupation

Very

confident

Fairly

confident

Somewhat confident

Slightly confident

Not

confident

b Secondary occupation

Very

confident

Fairly

confident

Somewhat confident

Slightly confident

Not

confident

15 In addition to the occupational skills, you know of any other skills that serve your production activities?

a Main occupation ……… ………

b Secondary occupation ………

16 Have you ever heard of the term "Climate change"? Yes No 16.1 If yes, what is your most appropriate option for “Climate change”? (Multiple answers)

Climate change is a change in the statistical properties of the climate system that persists for several decades or longer - usually at least 30 years

Climate change makes the weather hotter, more unusual

Climate change causes sea level rise leading to saline intrusion

Climate change makes natural disasters more unusual such as typhoons, floods,…

Other (Specify):……… ………

16.2 Where you get these informations? (Multiple answers)

Meeting/ Discusion Other (Specify):……….……… 16.3 What are the causes of climate change?

Climate change is completely caused by nature

Climate change is by entirely human

Climate change is caused by both nature and human

Climate change is mainly due to human

Climate change is mainly due to nature

Do not know

*PHYSICAL CAPITAL

17 What is the condition of your house?

Four-level house with tile roof Multi-storey house

Single-storey house with flat roof Haven’t got a home

Other (Specify):………… …….………

18 What is your assessment of the quality of your current housing?

Very good Good Fair Poor Bad

19 How you assess the following infrastructure system in Giao An commune?

Infrastructure system Quality

Very good Good Fair Poor DNK

Road and traffic system

Health system

School system

Electric power system

Domestic water system

Produced water system

Sewerage system

Early warning system (loudspeaker,…)

Dyke system

Other (Specify):……….………

20 Please select the method and means of production, business and service that you use:

Production methods Activities Means of production

(Multiple answers) Have Rent

Tradition (using human power) - Rice farming; - Vegetation farming; - Livestock husbandry

Rough labor tools (such as shovels,

hoes, sickles )

Applying machines Machinery (such as plows, harrows,

water pumps )

Other (Specify): Other (Specify):

Offshore

Fishing

Ships/ boats with capacity CV Fishing nets (Specify):

Two-way radios

Onshore

Fish finders

Marine radars

Life vest

Nearshore GPS

Other (Specify):…… ………… ……

Extensive

Aquaculture

Aerators (Máy quạt nước)

Intensive Water pump

Environmental measuring instruments 1

2

Semi-intensive

Electric generator

2 Other (Specify):

Other (Specify):…… ………… ……

Other (Specify): activities; - Services

Other ………….………

21 How you assess the quality of your facilities used for your production?

High Medium Low

22 Do you have any obstacles in using those facilities? Yes No

22.1 If you have, what is it (Specify)? ……… 22.2 Do you have any support from the government in investing in those facilities? Yes No

If yes, what department is it, what did they support (Specify)?

23 What utilities mentioned below you have? (Multiple answers)

Fridge Rice cooker

Washing machine Bicycle

Air condition Motorbike

Electric water heater Car, truck 10

Fan Electric generator 11

Cellphone Other (Specify): 12

24 How you assess the quality of your utilities?

High Medium Low

*FINANCIAL CAPITAL

25 What is your annual income:

What is your average household income:…………

26 Please rank occupations that make money for you from highest to lowest (1= main source of income, 2= secondary

source of income, etc, 0= doesn’t bring in any income)

Activities Order Income (VND) Note

Rice farming Vegetable farming Livestock husbandry Fishing

Aquaculture Civil service

Trading and commercial activities Making clothes

Freelance Pension

Allowance/ subsidy

27 Can you share the investment costs and benefits of these activities?

Activities

Initial cost Operating cost

Profit

Land Machine

Infrastructure Labour

Other

(Specify)

Material

cost Maintenance Labour Tax

Other

(Specify)

28 When facing financial difficulties, who will support and help you?

Family, relatives, friends Nobody

Organizations and unions Other (Specify):

29 Do you borrow money to support your production activities?

a Main occupation Yes No

b Secondary occupation Yes No

- If yes, how much you borrow? VND Borrow

at……… Interest rate is %

- If not, what is the reason?

No need Unable to borrow

30 Do you have any savings? Yes No

31 How you assess the economic situation of your family if compared to surrounding households?

Upper-middle class

Midle-

class

Near poor

(Upper-middle class)

Poor

*NATURAL CAPITAL

32 What is your current scale of production?

Rice farming Cultivated area:……… ………

Vegetable farming Cultivated area:……… ……… ………

Livestock husbandry Amount:……….… Types of livestock: ………

Fishing Fishing grounds: ……… ………

Aquaculture Area:….……… ………

Trading and commercial activities Large (Hire > 10

people)

Medium (Hire – 10

people) Small (Do it yourself) Making clothes

Other (Specify):……….…

33 How is the quality of the land you are using in production?

Agricultural land Very

good

Good Neutral Bad Very

bad

Fishery land Very

good

Good Neutral Bad Very

bad Other (Specify): Very good

Good Neutral Bad Very

bad + If the quality of land is “average” to “very poor” level, what are the reasons?

34 How is the quality of water you are using in production? Water in

agriculture

Very good

Good

2

Neutral Bad Very

bad Water in fisheries Very good

Good

2

Neutral Bad Very

bad Other (Specify): Very good

Good

2

Neutral Bad Very

bad

+ If the quality of water is “average” to “very poor” level, what are the reasons? (Multiple answers)

The water is too salty or sweet Factories (specify name: ) discharge waste into the water environment

People throw garbage into the natural

environment

Other (Specify):………

35 Does the mangrove forest affect your lives in particular and of Giao An households in general?

Yes No

35.1 If yes, what are the roles of the mangrove forest? (Multiple answers)

Prevention in cases of typhoons Protection of sea dyke

Stabilizing mudflats, increasing incomes for fishermen

36 Which of the following difficulties are mangroves and mudflats facing? (Multiple answers)

Overexploitation in mangroves Environmental pollution

The influence of natural conditions such as weather, natural disasters

Other (specific) *SOCIAL CAPITAL

37 What is your production model?

Primary occupation Individual Household Production team Cooperative Corporation Other

Secondary

occupation Individual Household Production team Cooperative Corporation Other

38 Do you receive any support from the Government and local authorities to develop production annually?

Primary occupation Yes No

Secondary occupation Yes No

38.1 If yes, what kind of support did you get? (Multiple answers)

Preferential loan Knowledge and skills (training)

Livelihood transformation Production orientation

Production techniques Other (Specify):……….………

38.2 Which organizations? 38.3 Do you think these supports are effective? Yes No

If not, why? 38.4 What is the necessary level of these supports?

Very necessary

Necessary Slightly

necessary

Unnecessary

38.5 How important are these supports to your production activities?

Very important Important Slightly

important

Unimportant

39 Which channel you sell your products to? (Multiple answers) Main

occupation

In the

market Traders

Processing

industries

Other

(Specify:…)

Secondary occupation

In the

market Traders

Processing

industries

Other

(Specify:…)

40 Does local authority assist you in finding the output of the product?

Yes No

40.1 If yes, you think these works are effective?

Yes No

40.2 What is the necessary level of these supports? Very

necessary

Necessary Slightly

necessary

Unnecessary

41 Do you wish to continue receiving any support from local authorities?

Yes No

If yes, what kind of support you expect?

42 How you assess the role of the following organizations in your production activities? Tổ chức

Organization

Role

Very important Important Slightly

important Unimportant

DNK

Local authorities

Farmer’s Association

Cooperatives

Women’s union

Youth Union

Veteran’s Association

Other (Specific):…………

43 What are the production difficulties you encounter? (Multiple answers)

a Farming

1 Price of material inputs is high

d Aquaculture

1 Price of material inputs is high Material input must be

purchased from other areas

2 Material input must be purchased from other areas

3 Labor costs are high Labour doesn’t meet the

demands

4 Lack of investment capital 4 Lack of investment capital

5 Lack of science and technology 5 Lack of science and technology

6 Non-grasping the technique 6 Non-grasping the technique

7 Being affected by natural

disasters

7 Being affected by natural

disasters

8 Many epidemics 8 Many diseases

9 Quality doesn’t meet standards 9 Quality doesn’t meet standards

10 Lack of markets 10 10 Lack of markets 10

11.Quantity is less 11 11.Quantity is less 11

12 Cheap price 12 12 Cheap price 12

13 Other (Specify):… … 13 13 Environmental pollution 13

b Livestock husbandry

1 Price of material inputs is high 14 Other (Specify): … 14 Material input must be

purchased from other areas

e Trading

1 Lack of supply

3 Labor costs are high 2 Lack of investment capital

4 Lack of investment capital 3 Labor costs are high

5 Lack of science and technology 4 Lack of science and technology 6 Non-grasping the technique Being affected by natural

disasters

7 Being affected by natural

disasters 6 Quality doesn’t meet standards

8 Many epidemics 7 Quantity is less

9 Quality doesn’t meet standards 8 Cheap price

10 Lack of markets 10 9 Other (Specify): …

11.Quantity is less 11

f Services

1 Lack of supply

12 Cheap price 12 2 Lack of investment capital

13 Other (Specify):… … 13 3 Labor costs are high

c Fishing

1 Price of material inputs is high 4 Other (Specify): … Material input must be

purchased from other areas Labour doesn’t meet the

demands

4 Lack of labour

5 Lack of investment capital 6 Lack of science and technology 7 Non-grasping the technique Being affected by natural

disasters

9 Lack of facilities

10 Quality doesn’t meet standards 10

11 Lack of markets 11

12 A decline in fish catches 12 13 Other (Specify):… … 13 *INSTITUTIONS AND POLICIES

44 Do you know the policies to support the production activities for local poeple?

Yes No

44.1 If yes, please list the policies that you know ……… 44.2 How you assess the effectiveness of policies on your production activities?

*VULNERABILITY CONTEXT

45 Over the last years, have the following natural disasters occurred in Giao An commune? (Multiple answers)

Typhoon Sea level rise

Tropical low pressure Saltwater intrusion 10

Whirlwind Extreme hot weather 11

Lightning Damaging cold 12

Heavy rain Hail 13

Flood Drought 14

Flashflood Hoarfrost 15

Inundation Other (Specify):……… 16

46 Over the last years, what are the frequency of the following natural disasters that have occurred in Giao An commune?

Types of natural disaster Very often Often Rarely Never

Typhoon

Tropical low pressure

Whirlwind

Lightning

Heavy rain

Flood

Flashflood

Inundation

Sea level rise

Saltwater intrusion

Extreme hot weather

Damaging cold

Hail

Drought

Hoarfrost

Other (Specify):………

47 Over the last years, what are the intensity of the following natural disasters that have occurred in Giao An commune?

Types of natural disaster Strong Moderate Weak

Typhoon

Tropical low pressure

Whirlwind

Lightning

Heavy rain

Flood

Flashflood

Inundation

Sea level rise

Saltwater intrusion

Extreme hot weather

Damaging cold

Hail

Drought

Hoarfrost

Other (Specify):……… …………

48 What are the following issues affected by natural disasters? (Multiple answers)

Daily life Health

Production activities Infrastructure

Income Other (specify):……….…

If yes, please move to 48.1

Typhoon

Tropical low pressure Whirlwind Lightning Heavy rain Flood Flashflood Inundation Sea level rise Saltwater intrusion Extreme hot weather Damaging cold Hail

Drought Hoarfrost

Other (Specify):……… ……… 48.2 In which, for production activities

- Rice farming and vegetable farming (Tick X)

Types of natural disaster Cultivated area decreased Productivity reduced Lack of irrigation water Many epidemics Soil erosion and degradation Crop

failures Other DNK

Typhoon

Tropical low pressure Whirlwind Lightning Heavy rain Flood Flashflood Inundation Sea level rise Saltwater intrusion Extreme hot weather Damaging cold Hail

Drought Hoarfrost Other

- Livestock husbandry (Tick X)

Types of natural disaster Grow slowly Productivity reduced Many epidemics Difficulty eating Dead loss Broken cages

and equipment Other DNK

Typhoon

Hail Drought Hoarfrost Other

- Aquaculture (Tick X)

Types of natural disaster Grow slowly Productivity reduced Water environment changes Many disease Difficulty eating Dead

loss Other DNK

Typhoon

Tropical low pressure Whirlwind Lightning Heavy rain Flood Flashflood Inundation Sea level rise Saltwater intrusion Extreme hot weather Damaging cold Hail Drought Hoarfrost Other - Fishing: - Other:…………

49 Do you often be informed before a disaster strikes?

Yes No

49.1 If yes, how long are you informed? Be notified in advance but did not promptly prepare, still damaged

Be informed in advance and promptly prepared, no damage

Be notified in advance, but slightly urgent, still

slightly damaged

Other (specify):………

……… 49.2 Where did you get the information? (Multiple answers)

Media (TV, newspaper, internet…) Neighbors/ Relatives/ Friends

Department of flood and strom control/ commune and hamlet officials

Other (specify):………

………

50 What did you prepare before the disasters occurred? (Multiple answers)

Reinforce the house Move pets to a safe shelter

Find a safe shelter in advance Remodel animal cages

Reserve food and water Early harvest

Prepare cooking utensils Nothing

Move furniture to a high place Other (specify):……… 10

If did nothing, why?

51 Did you receive any support after the disaster?

Yes No

51.1 If yes, what organization did 51.2 What they supported… 51.3 Do you think this support is appropriate? ………

Forecasting

Prevention

Rescue

Recovery

53 Have you been disseminated the knowledge to reduce and cope with risks caused by natural disasters?

Yes No

53.1 If yes, select the right answers (Multiple answers) Be disseminated knowledge to help identify types of natural disasters in the locality

Be provided information on the means and supplies to be able to prevent/ respond to natural disasters that may occur in the locality

Be provided necessary knowledge to be able to prevent/ respond to natural disasters that may occur in the locality

Other (specific):

54 Did any member of your household participate in natural disaster control and rescue rehearsal of the locality?

Yes No

If yes, you think the rehearsal is useful to your family?

Yes No

If not, why………

55 Do you have any recommendations to cope with climate change and reduce the risks of natural disasters in production activities? (Multiple answers)

Strengthen natural resources management Actively share information and experiences in the locality and the strengthen communication on prevention of natural disaster risks in production activities

Strengthen early warning system Increase local infrastructure investment and improve the irrigation transport system

Increase support through social protection and

risk management policies

Other (specific):

56 Would you like to change this job? Yes No

+ If yes, why? Strenuous work Unstable income

3 Resources are getting depleted

4 Other (specify):……

+ If no, why?

1 Love my occupation

2 Cannot change into another work

3 Other (specify):

57 Do you orient your children to this job? Yes No

Why?

58 Do you have any suggestions for developing your production activities? (Multiple answers)

Access to loans from banks more easily (with low-interest rate)

Increase support through social protection and risk management policies

Strengthen development programs and diversify local livelihoods

Increase investment in irrigation systems

Develop infrastructures in the locality

Access market information

Improve education and training in the locality

Other (Specify):

Sincere thanks for your cooperation Your participation is the basis for me to complete the master thesis I promise to use the information you provided for research purposes only

VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY

MASTER’S PROGRAM IN CLIMATE CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT IN-DEPTH INTERVIEW QUESTIONS FOR LOCAL AUTHORITIES Full name of the interviewee:……… Position:……… Working time:……… Questions

1 What are the prominent signs of climate change (CC) in Giao An commune in the last 20 - 30 years? What are the common types of natural disasters/extreme events?

2 Which areas are most affected by climate change in Giao An commune? Why? What are the community livelihoods in Giao An commune most affected by climate change? Why?

4 Which group is most affected in Giao An commune? Why?

5 What is the role of natural ecosystems and mangrove in Giao An commune in the response to climate change and natural disasters/extreme events? What is the connection to community livelihoods?

6 What are the challenges of natural ecosystems and mangrove in Giao An commune? What are the solutions that have been implemented to minimize impacts by local authorities and the community?

7 What are the solutions of the local authorities to mitigate the impacts of climate change, natural disasters/extreme events (especially to minimize risks to livelihoods)?

8 Are there any benefits to climate change for local communities? If yes, please specify What are the local plans and options to take advantage of these opportunities?

9 What is the current situation of livelihood assets of local communities (Physical/ infrastructure, financial, human, social and natural capitals)? What solutions are to improve these?

10 Do you propose and recommend to the local authorities and people to enhance the resilience to climate change of Giao An commune?

3.3: In-depth interview questions for local people

VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY

MASTER’S PROGRAM IN CLIMATE CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT IN-DEPTH INTERVIEW QUESTIONS FOR LOCAL AUTHORITIES Full name of the interviewee:……… Hamlet:……… Questions

1 What are the prominent signs of climate change (CC) in Giao An commune in the last 20 - 30 years? What are the common types of natural disasters/extreme events?

3 What is the role of natural ecosystems and mangrove in Giao An commune? What are the challenges of natural ecosystems and mangrove in Giao An commune? What are the solutions that have been implemented to minimize impacts by local authorities and the community?

5 Are there any benefits to climate change for local communities? If yes, please specify What are the local plans and options to take advantage of these opportunities?

6 Do you propose and recommend to the local authorities and people to enhance the resilience to climate change of Giao An commune?

3.4: List of households participating in the questionnaire

No Name Hamlet No Name Hamlet

1 Bui Phu Xuyen 51 Nguyen Duc Nguyen 10

2 Pham Thi Nhung 52 Nguyen Duc Thanh 10

3 Nguyen Hai Vang 53 Ngo Thi Tham 10

4 Bui Thi Binh 54 Tran Trong Phu 10

5 Tran Van Nham 55 Dinh Thi Voc 11

6 Dinh Ngoc Huan 56 Nguyen Thi Diep 11

7 Dang Xuan Bien 57 Tran Van Bay 11

8 Tran Van Huu 58 Pham Thi Luyen 11

9 Nguyen Thi Tuyet 59 Vu Duc Phuong 12

10 Nguyen Thi Ngoan 60 Doan Thi Lua 12

11 Pham Van Tuan 61 Doan Tieu 12

12 Pham Thi Thao 62 Tran Van Phuong 12

13 Tran Thi Kinh 63 Tran Van Luong 12

14 Pham Van Ung 64 Tran Van Hung 13

15 Pham Van Thoan 65 Lai Van Phong 13

16 Hoang Van Bao 66 Le Van Thanh 13

17 Tran Thi Voc 67 Tran Thi Dai 14

18 Hoang Van Cong 68 Hoang Van Dung 14

19 Tran Ngoc Tinh 69 Tran Thi Ha 14

20 Tran Trong Binh 70 Tran Thi Ngoan 14

21 Tran Van Phuong 71 Pham Van Dung 14

22 Hoang Van Mui 72 Le Van Tung 14

23 Trinh Dinh cuong 73 Nguyen Van Phong 15

24 Cao Xuan Truong 74 Do Van Tuy 15

25 Dinh Quang Thao 75 Pham Van Hien 15

26 Do Thi Len 76 Tran Thi Lien 16

27 Doan Dinh Da 77 Tran Thi Hang 16

28 Tran Thi Theu 78 Tran Van Dai 16

29 Doan Dao 79 Dinh Thi Cham 17

30 Tran Thi Sen 80 Pham Quang Nhuan 17

No Name Hamlet No Name Hamlet

32 Dinh Tien Giang 82 Hoang Van Luy 18

33 Tran Thi Suu 83 Nguyen Viet Hien 18

34 Tran Thi Hue 84 Nguyen Thi Khuyen 18

35 Pham Thanh Duoc 85 Pham Van Binh 18

36 Dang Quoc Viet 86 Nguyen Viet Luu 18

37 Nguyen Thi Thom 87 Tran Van Quynh 19

38 Nguyen Duy Dong 88 Do Ngoc Thuong 19

39 Le Duc Nhuan 89 Doan Dinh Huynh 19

40 Tran Thi Hong 90 Nguyen Tuan Tai 19

41 Bui Thi Han 91 Tran Ngoc Toan 20

42 Tran Ngoc Quynh 92 Tran Van Luu 20

43 Pham Thi Hao 93 Tran Van Thuy 20

44 Pham Van Liem 94 Pham Van Quan 21

45 Tran Thi Rong 95 Nguyen Van Lan 21

46 Nguyen Xuan Thien 96 Tran Van Dat 21

47 Dinh Duy Hien 97 Tran Van Dai 21

48 Nguyen Van Than 98 Dinh Hai Cuong 22

49 Pham Trung Truc 99 Pham Thi Quynh 22

50 Pham Thi Huong 100 Tran Van Dat 22

3.5: List of civil services involved in in-depth interviews

No Name Position

1 Tran Van Truong Chairman of People's Committee of Giao An commune Le Quang Dan Vice Chairman of People's Committee of Giao An

No Name Position

19 Nguyen Van Phien Village head 17 20 Pham Van Bong Village head 18 21 Cao Van Da Village head 19 22 Tran Van Nguyen Village head 20 23 Nguyen Van Thong Village head 21 24 Dinh Van Huy Village head 22

3.6: List of households involved in in-depth interviews

No Name Hamlet No Name Hamlet

1 Bui Phu Xuyen Nguyen Duc Thanh 10

2 Pham Thi Nhung 10 Pham Van Dung 14

3 Bui Thi Binh 11 Nguyen Viet Hien 18

4 Dang Xuan Bien 12 Nguyen Tuan Tai 19

5 Pham Van Liem 13 Tran Ngoc Toan 20

6 Dang Quoc Viet 14 Tran Van Dai 21

7 Pham Trung Truc 15 Dinh Hai Cuong 22

8 Nguyen Duc Nguyen 10

Appendix 4: Data on temperature and rainfall at Nam Dinh meteorological station

4.1: Data on average monthly temperature for the period of 1989-2018 at Nam Dinh meteorological station

4.2: Data on total monthly rainfall for the period of 1989-2018 at Nam Dinh meteorological station

Year Month Ave ∑

Jan Fer Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Appendix 5: Some images related to research

Image 1: Sluice gate of shrimp pond Image 2: Equipment for measuring salinity in water

Image 3: Simple house in improved extensive shrimp farming

Image 4: Plastic bottles designed to catch fish in the mangrove forest

Image 5: Fish traps used to catch fish in mangrove forest

Image 7: Vegetable farming Image 8: Raising rabbits

Image 9: Raising pigeons Image 10: Raising baby softshell turtles

https://js.vnu.edu.vn/SSH/article/view/265. https://careclimatechange.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Action-Research-on-Climate-resilient-Livelihoods-for-Land-poor-and-Land-less-People-English.pdf.