Quản trị đầu tư là module đỉnh cao của ngành tài chính. Module này sẽ giúp chúng ta có kiến thức về danh mục đầu tư, cách thức đầu tư để không bỏ trứng vào một rổ. Ngoài ra, nó còn giúp nhà đầu tư tình toán hiệu suất sinh lời, so sánh hiệu quả đầu tư giữa các kênh đầu tư, giữa các danh mục đâu tư. Nó cũng giúp cho chúng hiểu được ý nghĩa của chiến lược cắt lổ stop loss ...
COURSE TITLE: INVESMENT MANAGEMENT Students: ID: Lecturer: UBIS INTAKE 5: COURSE CODE: 0|Page FIN 603 COURSE CODE: MGT 601 APRIL 2020 Create an investment portfolio Luckily, I won the lottery with VND 50,000,000,000 After have great fun, I have a great problem that is how to use the money for more benefit Below is my decision: Total money 50,000,000,000 VND # USD 2,369,668.25 Time invest 12 month USD/VND 21,100 EUR/USD 1.3836 Discount rate 10% year Visa inc LVMH Vnamilk Real estate 20% 10% 14% 20% Grow rate expect after year invested Unit: USD Sector Deposit Company Number of things Price 15% 355,450 2% Vietcombank Asia 15% 355,450 1.5% 196.63 1,80 236,967 102.05 2,32 236,967 78 34,951 230m2 LVMH Real Estate PMH 1|Page Money invested Asia Vinamilk Cash Weight HD Bank Visa inc Stock Region City Bank US EU Asia 15% 10% 10% 355,450 Asia 30% 710,900 3,100/m US 5% 118,483 0.01% Display weight of investment by chart pie: Weight 118,483 ; 5.00% 710,900 ; 30.00% 710,900 ; 30.00% Diposit Stock Real Estate Cash 829,384 ; 35.00% Interpretation: - To share risk, the portfolio is as follows: Certificates of deposit: 30%, this is a stable array of investment, almost no risk but low profitability Stock: 35%, this segment has high profitability but also the corresponding risks Real estate: 30%, this segment has high profitability but moderate risk Cash: 5%, the amount of the reserve, to anticipate good business opportunities, unexpected Display investment by region: Region 1; 14.29% Asia US EU 2; 28.57% 4; 57.14% Interpretation: - To share the risks, we should invest in different areas 2|Page - Asia: 57%, corresponding to areas: deposit, stock, real estate and cash accounts U.S: 29%, corresponding to the stock and deposit EU: 14%, corresponding to the stock Explain to support the decision Mobilized capital for investment from lottery winnings, thus capital costs depend only on the owner's expectations I am a conservative, risk averse, thus yielding the expected 10% / year, higher savings deposits in VND a little Portfolio should include the following three basic elements: capital adequacy, profitability and liquidity Depending on the perspective of the owner that is the proportion of the three components on the corresponding are differences My point is: With ranking from to 4, with is lowest and is highest we have a decision matrix: Item CDs Cash in account Stock Real estate Capital adequacy Liquidity Profitability Sum With the matrix above, we see CDs and Cash have biggest point, after that is Stock and the final is Real estate Therefore, I like to use my money which in the order above points The proportion CDs accounted for 30% of the portfolio In CDs, we must also divided, one part sent to a medium-sized banks to enjoy high interest rates, and the rest sent to large banks to ensure a safe, of course deposit rates also slightly lower Cash is a very important factor in the prevention to spend, to invest in business opportunities sudden, large profitability For cash, liquidity and safety is very high For convenience in transactions worldwide, choose to open bank accounts also noteworthy Banks must ensure that there is a worldwide network, strong financial liquidity great, and City bank is a bank is selected The proportion of cash accounts for about 5% of the total investment is appropriate For stock invest, my point is to invest in different markets, with different kinds of stocks to ensure safety, efficiency and liquidity, as follows: 35% of the total investment amount of fund in stocks, in which the proportion of the market as follows: Item The proportion of the market 3|Page US 43% EU 28.5% ASIA 28.5% Total 100% In each market, the stock options of any industry should also consider investing For the U.S market, technology sector and financial, banks thrive, so Visa Inc stocks is selected For EU, fashion and accessories industry thrives, so LVMH is selected stocks And finally, Viet Nam is a developing countries, the demand for essential food, which especially milk products will be used to increase the height and prevent osteoporosis will be very large, so stock Vinamilk has been selected Item The proportion of shares Visa 43% LVMH 28.5% Vinamilk 28.5% Total 100% For real estate, choosing to invest in HCMC, is a financial center of Vietnam However, the real estate market itself HCMC also has many areas for growth, profitability and liquidity are also different After studying the information from various sources such as CBRE Vietnam, Savills Vietnam, real estate professionals, is selected to decide to choose luxury urban area Phu My Hung, District 7, HCMC This is the most modern urban Vietnam, focusing a lot of great wealth, the famous artist, foreign investors to live and work In real estate there are many products, choosing the right products to investors is also an art According to research by CBRE Viet Nam, product segment luxury apartments and commercial office supply now outstrips demand a lot Therefore, in round next year, commodity prices at this difficult segment rose Only the land segment, townhouses, villas are also growth opportunities, including the ground segment has the highest liquidity The current market value of the land around $ 3.100 / m2, => land area is expected to buying about 230m2 Will you put more than 50% amount of the money to invest into the property because it has reached the bottom? This is my answer: Absolute no Why? Because: Strategies for real estate investing of I is focus on the emerging markets, and Viet Nam is my choice But according to my assessment, Property prices Viet Nam although greatly reduced in the last years but the price is still very high, not to return to its true value The liquidity of the real estate market is still relatively low Viet Nam It’s caution, screened in select real estate products, geographical area The following is the opinion of experts on the question "Viet Nam real estate hit bottom?” 4|Page In the column "My Viewpoints", VnEconomy interviewed 13 managers, professionals and leaders of the major real estate companies such as CBRE, Savills The results are as follows: respondents are touching bottom, respondents not, people have different opinions Thus, more than 58.33% not in agreement with the statement Viet Nam real estate has hit bottom [ CITATION Ngu14 \l 1033 ] According to the analysis, the statistical indicators of the real estate of listed on the Vietnam stock market At 7/2009, at the start of the financial crisis in Viet Nam, the value is # 100, to a peak # 220 of 12/2009 Then, the index continued to fall, at 2/2013, around 120 Such could see property prices of Vietnam is relatively high compared to 2009, and of course is still very high compared with 2000, at Vietnam started strong innovation economy Details see chart below: Sources: Stoxplus A real estate product is another important office for rent Rental price fell in 2013 compared with Q2/2008 peak, but still has not changed much from 2007 The chart below is the price for Grade A office space and class B sources: CBRE The chart below shows more clearly the decline in the price and volume of real estate transactions in the period from 2000 to 2011 5|Page Sources: CBRE Viet Nam We easily see, the price of real estate securities within year decreased 80%, from 25 to less than 5, the volume of transactions fell by more than 90%, from 67,000 to less than 10,000 The liquidity of real estate dropped very low, would not say that "freeze" However, depending on geographic location, regional liquidity levels are also different As in HCMC, the largest economic center of Vietnam, the emerging district as District 7, District 2, District speed transfer of real estate is also quite high We can refer to a study by CBRE in 2013, according to District which is an area of active buying and selling, promoting, marketing, real estate highest with 19%, followed by District to 10 %, District to 8%, and the time of 10/2013 time of big events to promote the most since May 3/2013 6|Page In summary, the present time is not the best time to expand the scale of investment in the real estate portfolio At the same time, many areas are still good investment opportunities, it is important we realize it or not The returns expect at the end of this year Visa inc, price statistics from 04.26.2013 to 04.25.2014, the share price rose 21,33% The U.S macroeconomic news in 2014 continued stability and growth, however in the event Crimena incorporated into Russia, causing a disagreement with the U.S and Europe is an obstacle to the development of Visa inc Combining the two issues above, the expected 2014 Visa Inc stock price growth of 20% [ CITATION NYS14 \l 1033 ] LVMH, in the last year, from May 4/2013 to 4/2014 LVMH share price rose from EUR 129.15 to EUR 142.65, equivalent to 110.45% Macroeconomic situation world, especially Europe and the United States is gradually restored, creating economic incentives for development, including LVMH Therefore, expectations in 2014, LVMH share price will increase by 10% compared to 2013 [ CITATION Blo14 \l 1033 ] VNM, is one of the best stocks in Vietnam at present, in the past year's stock price rose from $ 5.78 VNM (# USD 122,000) to $ 6.59 (# VND139.000), up 14% compared with 2013 macroeconomic information such as inflation, interest rates, GDP of Vietnam pretty good in 2014, so expect the stock price growth rate in 2014 is equal to 2013, ie 14% / year [ CITATION Sto14 \l 1033 ] Phu My Hung is one of the rare urban luxury in Viet Nam has not reduced property prices, or even increased in recent years, especially those super villa is priced from $ 3-5 billions In addition, the area of urban land availability was running out, so hurry on this investment will be a right strategy Expect prices to rise 20% in the year Here is the result of investment spreadsheet: Return of portfolio: Deposit Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 HDBank NPV IRR (355,450) ($25,850.93) 2.00% 0 362,559.24 Vietcombank NPV IRR (355,450) ($27,466.61) 1.50% 0 360,781.99 7|Page City bank NPV IRR Stock Visa inc NPV IRR (118,483) ($10,760.45) 0.01% 0 Q1 0 Q2 Q3 118,495.26 Q4 (355,450) $32,313.66 20% 0 426,540.28 LVMH NPV IRR (236,967) 10% 0 260,663.51 Vinamilk NPV IRR (236,967) 8,616.98 14% 0 270,142.18 Real estate PMH NPV IRR Q1 (710,900) 64,627.32 20% Q2 Q3 Q4 Portfolio 853,080.57 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 (2,369,668.25) 0 2,652,263.03 NPV 41,479.97 IRR 12% Thus the portfolio is quite effective, after a year of investment NPV> and IRR> discount rate % percentage capital gain of each investment Sector Deposit Stock Real Estate 8|Page Company HD Bank Vietcombank Visa inc LVMH Vinamilk PMH Region Asia Asia US EU Asia Asia Weight 14% 14% 16% 10% 10% 32% Money return 362,559.24 360,781.99 426,540.28 260,663.51 270,142.18 853,080.57 Cash Sum Sector Deposit Stock Real Estate Cash Sum City Bank Company HD Bank Vietcombank Visa inc LVMH Vinamilk PMH City Bank US 4% 100% 118,495.26 2,652,263.03 % capital gain of the portfolio Region Weight Money invesed Asia 15% 397,839 Asia 15% 397,839 US 15% 397,839 EU 10% 265,226 Asia 10% 265,226 Asia 30% 795,679 US 5% 132,613 100% 2,652,263.03 References Bloomberg (2014, 04 25) LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA Retrieved 04 26, 2014, from bloomberg.com: http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/MC:FP Cuong, N (2014, 03 11) Real Estate: The bottom or not? Retrieved 04 19, 2014, from bizlive.vn: http://bizlive.vn/thi-truong/bat-dong-san-day-hay-chua-114971.html NYSE (2014, 04 25) Visa Inc Retrieved 04 26, 2014, from google.com/finance: https://www.google.com/finance? q=NYSE:V&sa=X&ei=DyJbU6_cMNL38QXorIGwDg&sqi=2&ved=0CCYQ2AEwAA Stockbiz (2014, 25) Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM : HOSE) Retrieved 26, 2014, from http://en.stockbiz.vn/: http://en.stockbiz.vn/Stocks/VNM/Overview.aspx 9|Page .. . ($25,85 0.9 3) 2.0 0% 0 362,55 9.2 4 Vietcombank NPV IRR (355,450) ($27,46 6.6 1) 1.5 0% 0 360,78 1.9 9 7|Page City bank NPV IRR Stock Visa inc NPV IRR (118,483) ($10,76 0.4 5) 0.0 1% 0 Q1 0 Q2 Q3 118,49 5.2 6.. . (355,450) $32,31 3.6 6 20% 0 426,54 0.2 8 LVMH NPV IRR (236,967) 10% 0 260,66 3.5 1 Vinamilk NPV IRR (236,967) 8,61 6.9 8 14% 0 270,14 2.1 8 Real estate PMH NPV IRR Q1 (710,900) 64,62 7.3 2 20% Q2 Q3 Q 4.. . Asia US EU Asia Asia Weight 14% 14% 16% 10% 10% 32% Money return 362,55 9.2 4 360,78 1.9 9 426,54 0.2 8 260,66 3.5 1 270,14 2.1 8 853,08 0.5 7 Cash Sum Sector Deposit Stock Real Estate Cash Sum City Bank Company