Chính sách đối ngoại của hoa kỳ với nga và trung quốc trong thập niên 1990

m i HOC QUOC GIA HA NQI TRU)NGft\I HOC KHOA HOC XA HOI VA NHAN VAN CHINH SACH DOI NGOAI CUA HOA KY V6l N(,A VA TRUNG QUOC TRON(i THAP NIEN 1990 Ma so: CB 01 30 Ho va ten chu tri de tai: ThS Nguyen Thi Thanh I hu> Can bo phoi hop nghien cuu: - P(;S TS Nguyen Thiet Son - TS Dinh Cong Tuan - CN Dili Ha Nam OAI HOC QUOC GIA HA i^lOi TRUNG TAr,^ THONG TIN 'HU VIEN pr/_^u Ha NO! 12-2002 Ldi GAM cm Nhan djp hoan Ihanh cong vice nghien cuu, ihay inal nhom nghien ciiu cic lai 'Chfnh sach doi ngoai cua Hoa Ky v6i Nga va Trung Quoc Irong Ihap nien I99()\ loi xin chan Ihanh gui loi cam i:5w \(i\ Hoi dong Khoa hoc cua Dai hoc Quoc gia Ha Noi da lin lu'ong giao cho loi chu In mot dS lai nghien Cliu khoa hoc cd ban quan Irong cua Dai hoc Quoc gia Ha Ngi Toi xin bay l(') su' cam (^n loi Ban Khoa hoc - Cong nghe va Ban Ke hoach - Tai chfnh, Dai hoc Qudc gia I la Ngi, da Iru'c licp lao diSu kien (huan h)i cho vice Iricn khai nghien ciiu cua dS lai Trong qua Irlnh thuc hien viec nghien cuu va chuAn bi cho cong lac nghiem lhu, chung loi da nhan dugc su' chi dAn cu Ihe va nhiel linh cila cac can bg Phong Khoa hgc, Trudng Dai hgc Khoa hoc Xa hgi va Nhan Van Chung loi xin chan cam on Ban chu nhiem Khoa Quoc le hgc rat quan lam ldi lien nghien cuu cLia d6 tai va luon lao dieu kien ihuan Igi de chung tdi cd the hoan vice nghien ciTu dung lien va dam bao chat luong Khdng cd su ddng vicn va giiip dd nay, chung ldi khd cd the lam lot cdng viec cila minh Tdi dac biet cam an GS VQ Duong Ninh, Chu lich Hdi dong Khoa hgc Khoa Qudc le hgc, v6 nhung gdp y quy bau cua Giao su irong buoi hdi ihao cua d6 tai Nhung y kien da giup nhdm nghien ciiu kip thdi dua nhung bd sung can thiel vao ngi dung nghien cuu cua d6 tai de gdp phan hoan Ihicn cdng Irlnh tnrdc nghiem lhu Cudi cung, ldi xin chan cam ^w cac ban ddng nghiep da nhicl linh tham gia nghien ciiu va ddng vien kip ihdi Su nhicl linh va cd vu cua cac ban la mdt yeu td gdp phAn vao sir ihanh cdng cila nhdm nghien ciru CIIU TRI D A TAI 77/.S Nguyen Tin Thanh Thiiy MUC LUC L()l NOI DAU I PHAN CHINH SACH DOI NGOAI CUA HOA KY Vdl NGA vA TRUNG QUOC TRONG THAP NIEN 1990 NHJNG YEU TO TAG D O N G TCH CHJNH SACH DOI NGOAI CUA HOA KY TRONG QUAN HE v d l NGA VA TRUNG QUOC Cue dien the gidi sau Chien tranh Lanh Tinh hinh kinh le, chfnh tri, xa hoi nudc My Chicn hide loan cfiu cua My II CHiNH SACH DOI NGOAI CUA HOA KY VOI LIEN BANG NGA 11 23 « Nhung bien ddng chfnh Iri ldn a Ddng Au va Lien Xd va chfnh sach cila chfnh quyfin Bush Nhung thach lluic khac lir chau Au va nirdc Nga va chfnh sach cua chfnh quy6n Clinton Lien minh Nga Trung thdi ky hau Chien tranh Lanh: mdl thach ihiic ddi vdi My III CHiNH SACH DOI NGOAI CUA HOA KY VOI TRUNG QUOC Nhung yeu id ngi lu'c cua Trung Qudc Trung Qudc va Ddng Bac A Nhung thach thiic d chau A-Thai Binh Dirong 23 29 36 42 43 44 5I PHAN 11 ANH HUbNG CUA CHINH SACH DOI NGOAI CUA HOA KY TRONG QUAN HE Vdl NGA VA TRUNG QUOC 60 I QUAN HE M Y - N G A TRONG THAP NIEN 1990 Van dc kiem st)al \Ti Irang va giai irir quan hi Quan he iVIy - Nga irong mgl so van de an mnh d chau Au 2./ Win cic ni()' rofii^ NATO vc phia doni^ 2.2 Quan clicni ciia My - Nga irong cuoc \iing dot 6' Nam Tif 60 60 72 72 78 Quan diem cua My ~ Nga v^ van 66 Chechnya Chfnh sach kinh le, thuang mai ciia Hoa Ky vdi Nga II QUAN HE MY - TRUNG QUOC TRONG THAP NIEN 1990 Quan diem cua Hoa Ky ve van de nhan quyen va dan chil d Trung Quoc sau su kien Thien An Mdn, 6-1989 VAn de Dai Loan va chfnh sach "mot nudc Trung Hoa" ciia My VAii de kiem soat va khdng bieitvu khf hat nhan Chfnh sach kinh IS', thuong mai cua Hoa Ky vdi Trung Qud'c •»* 87 93 102 102 109 I 16 122 /\ KliTI.UAN 133 TAI LIEU THAM KHAo 139 LOI NOI DAU Thap nien 1990 co nhi^u bie'n dOng sau sac ve an ninh chinh tri ivtn pham vi toan c^u Sir sup 66 cua khoi cac nu6c xa hoi chu nghTa o D6ng Au cu6i nam 1989 vh su tan rS cua Lifen X6 thang 12-1991 da lam dao Ion trat ta qu6c i€ t6n tai gSn nira the' ky k^ tCr sau Chie'n tranh The' gi6i II So sanh luc luong tren the' gi6i ti^ ch6 tuong ddi can bing giGa hai he IhO'ng chfnh tri xa tjOi doi lap trd tam thdi co loi cho Hoa Ky va cac nu6c dong minh Tuy nhicn, Hoa Ky, sieu cu5ng quoc nha't luc nay, khong tranh khoi nhung tac dong to 16n ciia nhung bie'n dong tren the' gidi, dac biet quan he vdi Lien bang Nga, nudc ke' thCra di san to ldn ve chinh tri, quan sir va kinh te' cua Lien Xo, va Trung Qud'c, mot cudng qud'c dang trdi day d khu vuc Chau A - Thai Binh Duong Hai nudc duoc danh gia la hai sd nam trung tam lire lugng chfnh tri cua the gidi (ben canh Hoa Ky, chau Au va Nluit Ban) thap ky cudi cung cua the ky XX Tren thuc te nhieu thap ky qua, quan he giu'a Hoa Ky vdi Lien Xo va sau dd la Nga va Trung Qud'c ludn de lai nhung da'u an, nhung tac dgng ldi cac mdi quan he cua nhicu nudc khac cd lien quan Mdi quan he cua Hoa Ky vdi Lien bang Nga va Trung Qudc a nhung miic nhat dinh se cdn tiep tuc tac ddng tdi tlnh hinh an ninh chfnh trj the gidi va cac mdi quan he qudc te tren pham vi toan cau cijng nhu khu vuc the ky XXL Budc vao thap nien 1990, tlnh hinh chinh tri, xa hgi va kinh te ciia nudc My cung cd nhu'ng yeu Id mdi xuat hien O nhu'ng muc khac nhau, nhung yeu id nay, dac biet ITnh virc kinh te, da chi phdi viec hoach dinh chfnh sach ddi ngoai cila cac chfnh quySn duang nhiem, mdt ph^n dudi che cua Tong thdng George H W Bush (1988-1992) va chu yeu la dudi che ciaa Tong Ihd'ng Bill Clinton (1993-2000) Nhu vay, nhirng thay ddi ldn tlnh hinh an ninh chinh tri the gidi va khu vuc cung nhu cac ye'u td' mdi xua't hien tinh hinh ndi bd chinh trj, kinh te' vtl xa hOi nudc My thdi ky sau Chie'n tranh Lanh da anh hudng dC'n sir thay ddi chie'n luge to^n cSu ciia My ndi chung va chinh sach ddi ngoai ciia My vdi Lien bang Nga va Trung Qud'c ndi rieng thap nien 1990 Vl day la mdt giai doan cd nhieu bien dong quan trong tinh hinh the' gidi va khu vuc nen cd nhieu hoc gia d^ tam nghien cuu ve cac van de cd lien quan de'n chinh sach dd'i ngoai ciia Hoa Ky ndi chung va chinh sach ma My ap dung vdi Lien bang Nga va Trung Qudc ndi rieng thdi ky Mdi mgt cdng trinh d6u cd gSng tap trung nghien cuu sflu mot khfa canh cua cac va'n d6 cd li6n quan den chfnh sach ddi ngoai cua Hoa Ky thap nien cung nhu mdi quan he cua nd vdi hai cudng qudc Nga va Trung Qudc Vf du, hgc gia Trung Qudc Ly Thuc Cdc da nghien cii'u mot each kha loan dien sir thay doi chien luac toan cfiu cua My sau Chien tranh Lanh Tuy nhien, cdng trinh mdi chl dij*ng lai d thdi diem nam 1993 nen chua phan anh dfiy du nhirng sir dieu chlnh cua chfnh sach ddi ngoai cua Hoa Ky nhu'ng nam sau dd cua thap ky 1990 Mdt cdng Irlnh nghien cii'u cua lac gia Mariddn Tuarena vi 'Sir dao lgn cua the gidi: Dia chfnh tri the ki XXL dugc nha xuat ban Chinh trj Qudc gia xuat ban nam 1996 da gianh phan ldn ngi dung cua cdng trinh de ban ve su thay doi cue dien the gidi sau Chien Iranh Lanh cung nhu nhu'ng tac dgng cua nd ddi vdi nhieu khu vuc tren the gidi Cdng trinh nghien cuu cung neu bat vai trd ciia nhan td My Irong cue dien the gidi mdi sau sir sup dd cua khdi cac nudc xa hgi chu nghia d Ddng Au va Lien Xo Tac gia cung dua mgt sd khuye'n nghi ve cac vfin 66 an ninh va quan he qudc te cd lien quan den vai trd cila My thdi gian tdi Mot cdng trinh khac cua tac gia Phi Bang dugc Nha xuat ban Tre xuat ban nam 2001, cuon sach 'Nhung sir kien quan trgng Irong quan he My - Trung Qudc', la mdt tap tu lieu thii vi va bo fch ve quan he My - Trung Qudc tren mgt sd phuang dien khac VI eudn sach chu yeu liinh bay ve nhung sir ki^n quan trpng quan he giua hai nudc, dung nhu ten goi cua nd, nen chua chu phan tich ve chinh sach ddi ngoai ciia Hoa Ky quan he vdi Trung Qud'c bd'i canh chung ciia su thay ddi ldn chien luge toan c^u Clia My thap nien 1990 Mdt sd cdng trinh khac ciia cac hgc gia My cd lien quan den mdi quan he ciia tam giac My - Nga - Trung cung phan nao phan anh dugc chfnh sach dd'i ngoai ciia Hoa Ky vdi hai cudng qud'c niJa d^u ciaa thap nien 1990 Vi du nhu cud'n "America, Russia, and the Cold War, 1945-1996' (My, Nga, va Cudc Chie'n tranh Lanh, 1945-1996) cua tac gia Walter LaFeber, hay cuon 'America's Half-Century: United States Foreign Policy in the Cold War and After' (Nua the ki nudc My: Chinh sach doi ngoai ciia Hoa Ky Chien tranh Lanh va sau dd) ciia tac gia Thomas J McCormick dugc tai ban ldn thu: hai cd bo sung nam 1995 Nhieu bai viet cua cac hgc gia nudc ngoai va Viet Nam lien quan den d6 tai cung da duac nhdm nghien cuu thu thap va dua vao danh muc tai lieu tham khao Vi gidi han cua nhiJng bai viet nen cac tac gia chi cd the tiinh bay mdt va'n 66 nha't dinh cua chinh sach ddi ngoai ciia My cung nhu cac va'n 66 cd lien quan de'n quan h6 ciaa My vdi Nga va Trung Qudc thap nien 1990 Xua't phat til thiJc te nay, viec nghien ciru mdt each ca ban va tong the ve chfnh sach ddi ngoai cua Hoa Ky vdi Lien bang Nga va Trung Qudc giai doan la can thiet Mat khac, khudn kho ciia chuang trinh giang day va nghien cuu chau My ciia Khoa Qudc te hgc, Trudng Dai hgc Khoa hgc Xa hgi va Nhan van, Dai hgc Qudc gia Ha Ngi, viec nghien ciiu ve chfnh sach ddi ngoai ciia Hoa Ky la mgt phan quan trgng cua chuang trinh Ke't qua ciia cdng trinh nghien cuu se dugc sir dung lam mgt phan cua ngi dung giang day ve chinh sach ddi ngoai cua Hoa Ky va la mdt tap tai lieu tham khao cho sinh vien chuyen ban chau My ndi rieng va sinh vien ciia Khoa Qudc te hgc va Khoa Lich sir ndi chung, dieu kien tai lieu tham khao ve chfnh sach ddi ngoai Clia Hoa Ky bfmg tieng Viet cdn ft va dieu kien sinh vien cd kha nang doc tir li6u true tiep bang tie'ng Anh kem Ket qua ciia cdng tiinh nghien ciru nay, dii nhirng han che nha't dinh, nham ddng gdp vao ngudn tu lieu tham khao cho cac nha nghien curu va nhirng ngudi quan tam ve chfnh sach ddi ngoai ciia Hoa Ky ndi rieng va quan he ddi ngoai ciia Hoa Ky ndi chung mgt thap ky dSy nhirng bien dgng ldn linh hinh an ninh chfnh tri tren the' gidi Nhdm nghien cuu da chat Igc nhiing thdng tin cung nhu so sanh nhiJng each danh gia khac ciia nhieu tac gia, ca va ngoai nudc, ddi vdi tung va'n de de cd the dua mgt bu'c tranh chung ve chie'n luac loan cau cung nhu chfnh sach ddi ngoai ciia My ddi vdi Lien bang Nga va Trung Qud'c giai doan nay, nhu duac trinh bay PhSn I cua cdng trinh nghien cuu De minh hga cho chfnh sach ddi ngoai cua Hoa Ky vdi Nga va Trung Qud'c thdi ky sau Chie'n tranh Lanh, Phan II ciia cdng Irlnh nghien cuu Irlnh bay mdt sd van de noi bat d cac ITnh vuc khac quan he song phuang Clia My vdi hai cudng qudc Trong nhdm nghien cuu ciia de lai nay, PCS TS NguyCn Thiel San viet ve chfnh sach kinh te ciia Hoa Ky vdi Nga va Trung Qudc, TS Dinh Cdng Tuan vie'l ve van de Chechnya d Nga va van de nhan quycn va dan chu d Trung Qudc, CN Bui Ha Nam dam nhiem phrin viet ve quan he My - Nga xung quanh van de md rdng NATO va cudc xung dot d Nam Tu Toan bd ngi dung cdn lai TIiS Nguyen Tlii Thanh Tliiiy, chii Irl de lai, dam nhiem Do dieu kien nghien cuu cd ban, cdng trinh nghien ciiu khong tranh khdi nhung han che Di hoan Ihien cdng Irlnh nay, nhdm nghien ciiu ciia de Uii rai mong nhan duac nhu'ng ddng gdp y kien ciia cac ban ddng nghiep, cac chuyen gia nghien ciiu ve quan he qud'c le va Hoa Ky ndi chung, chfnh sach ddi ngoai ciia My ndi rieng Chung ldi danh gia cao mgi y kien ddng gdp va xin Iran trgng cam an PHAN L CHINH SACH DOI NGOAI CUA HOA KY VClI LIEN BANG NGA VA TRUNG QUdC TRONG THAP N I £ N 1990 I NHQNG Y ^ U TO TAC DONG T6| CHfNH SACH DOI NGOAI CUA HOA KY TRONG QUAN HE V6l NGA VA TRUNG QUOC Cue dien the gioi sau Chien tranh Lanh TiJ cudi nhirng nam 1980, the' gidi da chiing kie'n nhiJng bien dgng diJ ddi d Ddng Au, dSn den su sup hoan toan ciia khdi cac nudc xa hgi chii nghla Ddng Au vao cudi nam 1989 va ciia Lien Xd cudi thang 12-1991 Su tan ciia Lien Xd cung cd nghia la ddi thii Chie'n tranh Lanh ciia Hoa Ky gid day khdng cdn niJa Day cOng chfnh la hdi kei ciia cugc Chien tranh Lanh hai sieu cudng Lien Xd va Hoa Ky diing dfiu Tmh the dd da lam cho Hoa Ky trd sieu cudng nhai va manh nhai ve quan sir, cd lgi the so sanh ve lire luang quan siJ - chien luac ITnh vuc an ninh toan cfiu Liic nay, nhieu ngudi My td vui miing trude vi the mdi ciia nude My sau Chien tranh Lanh, dac biet la sau chien thang ciia My cudc chie'n tranh Vung Vinh d^u nam 1991 Bao chf va cac tap chf nghien ciiu My tran ngap nhiJng bai viei phan anh mgt quan diem ve vi tri sieu cudng nhai ciia Hoa Ky Vci cho rang day la "mdt vi trf khdng the thay the" mdt trat tu the gidi mdi sau Chien tranh Lanh Mdt sd ngirdi tham chf cdn di xa ban viec keu ggi chfnh quyen George H W Bush phai thuc hien mot du an mang tfnh ba quyen, coi dd la mdt nhiem vu ma nu'dc My khdng the thoai thae de dam bao vai trd lanh dao the'gidi ciia nudc My thdi ky hau Chien tranh Lanh.' Trong hoan canh dd thang 8-1990, Tong thdng Bush lan dau tien dua khai ' lliam khao lliomas J McConiiick America's Half-Century: UnileclSlates Foreign Policy in the C\)hl War and After The Johns Hopkins University Press Maryland 1995 Tr 248-249 niem vi mOt "Tr9t tu the' gidi mdi" sau Chien tranh Lanh Hoa Ky lanh dao vk da nhan duac su (ing hd manh me ciia chfnh gidi My Tren thuc te, cue dien the' gidi luc cd nhidu bien ddi, lir hai cue chuyen sang nhieu cue vdi su noi len ciia cac trung tam quyen lire mdi ve chfnh Iri va kinh te' d chau A va chau Au Cac ddng minh ciia Hoa Ky d Tay Au da cd nhirng phan iing budc dau ddi vdi khai niem 'Trat lir the gidi mdi' Clia chfnh quydn Bush, thd hien Iham vgng ciia hg Irong viec chia sc quydn luc vdi Hoa Ky cai trai lu the gidi mdi dd Su thdng nhal Ihanh cong hai nlui nudc Diic thang 10-1990 tao mdt nude Due manh me d trung him ciia chau Au Tren ca sd dd, Tliii tudng Due Helmut Kohl cho rang Ihap ky 1990 la "thap ky ciia chau Au" Tong thdng Phap Francois Mitterrand va Bd trirdng Ngoai giao Anh Hughes cung phan ddi viec gan ghep nen hda binh the' 'gidi dudi sir ihdng tri ciia My Rd rang cac ddng minh Tay Au ciia My khong cha'p nhan su ap dal vai trd lanh dao tuyet ddi ciia Hoa Ky ma ddi cung chia sc quydn luc vai trd lanh dao ihc gidi Lien Xd sijp do, Lien bang Nga ke ihira di san ciia Lien Xd Nudc Nga lam Ihdi suy yeu nhung van cd the manh liem Uing: 1) Nga la mdl dffl nudc rdng ldn vdi ngudn lai nguyen thien nhicn phong phu, hua hen mot tidm nang kinh le ldn Ddng thdi, vdi dan sd tren 140 trieu ngirdi (nam 2001), Lien bang Nga se la mdt thi tru'dng rdng ldn Neu My khdng nhanh chan tham nhap vao thi tru'dng thi se bi cac ddng minh Tay Au dd dang thay the; 2) Nga duac ke ihiia phan ldn kho vu khf hat nhan ciia Lien Xd, vl the Nga la mgt cirdng qudc hat nhan ma My khdng the coi thudng; 3) Nga ke ihiia chiic vien Ihudng inrc ciia Hgi ddng Bao an Lien Hiep Qudc, vl the Nga cd licng ndi quan Irgng cac van dd qudc te Nhung the manh tidm lang cila Nga lam cho My khdng 66 gl bfil Nga luan theo cay gay chi huy ciia My C) khu vuc chau A - Thai Binh Duong, sir ndi len nhu la mgl cirdng qudc kinh le cila Nhat Ban may thap ky qua cung lao ca sd cho ciru Thil lue va da dat dugc nhidu lien bd, rdng Trung Qucic ludn cd thien ehi va da liim het siic minh va didu dugc cdng nhan rgng rai, rang tucyng lai quan he ihucyng niiii giua My va Trung Qucic luy Ihudc viio lluii eua My Trude linh hinh dd, 15-5-1996 chmh quydn My dii tuyen bd se ap dung bieu thuc 100% ddi vdi mgl sd mat hang ccy biin cua Trung Qudc nhap vao My vdi tri gia hon hai ty USD, tuong duong vdi muc Uii sdn Iri tue nui My coi hi da hi Trung Qudc danh cdp Ngay sau dd, Trung Quci'c da luycn bd sc gidng ddn 'Pluin trung |ihnl" neu phin My Irirng pluil Trung Qiuic Mnc di:i \'il\ cii hni hen Cling nd lire gidi quyet viin dd, ddn ldi vice ky mdl hiep dinh mdi ngny l7-6d996 tlii Bdc Kinh Ban hiep dinh quy dinh vice iVung Qucic ddng ciia cac nha nuiy vi pham ban quydn, ticn hanh didu tra eae hoal dgng bi nuil vi pham bnn c|iiydn, n^d eiin Ihi Irucing eho cnc hilng nluie phim honl hinh xii phdn mdm nuiy linh ciin My Tuy nhien, viin dd bdo hd quyen sd huu tri tuc Viin la van dd khd giai quyet hien Irong quan he kinh te ciia My vdi Trung Quci'c Ddu IK cua My vdo Trunsi Qudc Nhu da Uinh bay d phdn tren, My ludn thiie ep md ciin thi tnrdng Trung Quci'c cho honl ddng ihuo'ng mai, ddu lu'eiia My Vdi mgl thi irucyng ddu tu rgng kin cua Trung Quci'c vii nhu cdu biinh trudng kinh le snng khu vuc clulu A - Thni Binh Ducyng ciin My, hni ben dn giip nlinu d mdl didm nuiu chdl: tnng cudng jg'i ich kinh le cua nircic minh Nhung nganh cdng nghiep ed uu the Clia My chfnh hi nhu'ng nganh Trung Qud'c mong mucin md rdng hgp Uie ddu tu Dd hi nhung ngnnli nlur sdn xudt d Id, nuiy bny, lliid bi cdng nghe thdng lin, vidn ihdng Nhieu cdng ly Icin eiia My chi vao i rung Qude lam iln Ddu ur true ticp (FDI) eiin My snng Trung Qude nluing lulm 1990 dirge minh hon d bidu dudi dily ni thill tu Clia Mv vao Trung Quoc nhung nam 1990, trieu I'SI) Nam ( l i i l t r i (lau tu Nam (lia l i i (lau li 1990 354 1995 2.765 1991 431 1996 ^.S4M 1992 469 1997 5.15 1993 916 1998 6.481 1999 7.766 * 1994 2.557 N,i>tldfi: Slalislical Ahslracl of ihc Unilcd Slalcd 2001 Tii luim 1994, cdng ly sdn xuiil nuiy bny Boeing ciin My da ky \'di cdng ly Thiet hi Hnpg khdng Trung Quci'c cdng ty Cdng ngliic;p I hing khdng Tily An Clia Trung qucic hicp dinh die tao va hip dat hcyn 4000 loai phu timg nuiy bny Boeing 737 d I3dc Kinh (tri gin ircn 600 trieu USD) Den eudi 1994, ddu ur Clin My vno i i u n g Qucic chi diing snu Ildng Cdng \'ii Diii Lonn iiiih 6en iiiim 1998, My dii ddu tu vno 23.250 cdng trinh d Trung Qude, dung lhu ba long sc) cnc nhn ddu tir nucyc ngoni vno Trung Qude (sau Dai Lo;iii \'ii Nhill Bnn) liien nny, dnnh muc 300 cdng ly Icin nluil nudc My chi ed tren 400 cdng ly vno iViiiig Qucic honl ddng Theo dnnh gin cun phin My Idn Trung Qude, ddu ur cun My y[\n iViiiig Quci'c sc ngny mdl nhidu hoU, cpinn he kinh tc eiin hai nu'cic nga\ mdl chill die lio'ii Vli kyi idl numg Ini cho cn hni hen ngny mdl Icin iiiy nhien, ed the ed nhidu cudc "chidi Irniih" kinh lc giua hai nude se dien nhung kcl cue hai hc}ii se lim rn cnch gini cpiycl vi thuc dull hni IKMI kinh le luly rai cim i.n nhiui I ^.^ KET LUAN Chinh Siich dcii ngoiii ciia lioa Ky vcii Lien bang Nga \ ii Trung Qude Irong nhung nam 1990, Ihap ky ddu lien sau Chidi tranh Lanh, chiu su ehi phdi Clia nhung bien dgng kin cua cue dien the gidi tren eae linh vue an ninh, ehinh Iri, kinh le vii quan sU Nhung bien ddng luiy dui yen dien rn d hni diilu lue kin hi clulu Au chau A, Trong giai doiin luiy, cnc chinh quydn My ed y thiel lap mgl trat tu the gicii mot cue My chi phdi Tren llurc le, llie gidi ti;r hai cue chuydn sang da cue, dd cnc ddng minh ciin My nlur Diic, Anh, Pluip, Nluit Bnn deu mucin chin sc: c|iiyc:n lire liinh dno ihe gidi v()i Mv, Lien bang 'Nga thua ke di sdn ciin Lien Xd dnng d the suy ycui nhung \'nn ed nhidu sue nuinh tidm tiing lluidi llurc kii ich eiin My khli \'ire, irong Trung Qucic dnng ci the vucyn len din vi mdl cueing cpide ldn lren ihe gicyi iu;i My khong ihe xem ihucyng irucye cue dien die gicii thny doi, lion Ky dii lien hnnh nhung dieu dnnh kin chien luge nn ninh qudc gin vcii nine lieu ndi bill In chuyen ur \iii lid liinh 111 pluro'ng Tny sang Innh tu the gidi Dt llurc hicn duoe lluim \ong dd Ciie duiih c|u\'en Bush \'ii Ciinlon su clung moi chien luoc chu diio l;i \'Uoi \\tn ngiln chniT nhdm kluing ehe khdng dc* eho moi nude niu) vuol len nam vai trd nudc ba quydn cy' nhung khu \'iie diicic eoi hi ed kyi kh sdng eua My, chang nlur d dulii A va chau Au Chidi lucye luiy eiing clii ehi phdi ehinh snch doi ngoni cun My \'('yi Lien bnng Ngn \n Irung (>ioe liong ihap men 1990 Tuy nhien, nhung ehinh sach dcii iigOiii cu the eua Iloa Ky \oi Nga \a iYuiig Qudc Irong llu^'i ky luiy cdn hi ehi phdi hoi nhung dien luc;ai cpian liong \n\ rn o Irong long lurov Nga \u irung (^iioc Hen lluic le nhung diinh saeh eua My vcii hai eudlig quoe khong ck' d;ing lhu diiov kel cpia nhu v'.\e ^^ chinh quydn My mong mudn vi vap phai nhung trd ngai tu ca phfa My, Nga va Trung Qudc Dcii vc'yi Lien bang Nga cung nlur cac nucic cdng hoa lliiioe Lien Xo irircic day (cac nucic NIS), ciic chmh quydii My chu Iruong thu'c hien ehicii luoc ean dir dd xda bd mgi tan tfch cua che cdng sdn Xd viet da tijrng tdn tni cy' cac lui'cye nay, lining budc dua Nga va cac nu'dc NIS chuydn sang che dnn clui iheo md hinh ciia My va phucyng iily, cung vdi vice xnc Inp ndn kinh id llii * UUci'ng d cac nude Ddng Ihdi cac chuih quydii My cung khuyen khich Nga va cac nu'dc NIS tfch cue tham gia vao qua Uinh hgi nhap vdi NATO va chau Au Theo quan dicm ciia My, sir hgi nhnp luiy se Ino sir dn dinh va phat trien d chau Au theo hirdng ed Igi eho lgi ich eiia My d clulu hie luiy Trong quan he song phucyng cua My vdi Lien bang Nga, viin 66 kidm soiit vii trang va gidi tri^r quan bi la mot trgng tam va uu lien hang ddu irong ehinh saeh ddi ngoai cua My vdi Nga thdi ky hau Xd viel vi nguy co ciin su phd bien kho vu khf bill nhnn ma Nga thiia ke cua Lien Xd vii vi tfnh cluil qunn trgng ciia nd ddi vdi vice dam biio an ninh khu vuc Icjfi fch chicn lucyc lonn cdu cua My Miic dii vay, nhirng tfnh loan ciia My ddi vdi Lien bang Ngn viip pluii lid ngai tu phfa Nga Chang hiin nhu My mucin Nga nhanh chdng enl giam kho vii khf bill nhan va liing cirdng viec kidm soal cac kho vu khf luiy 66 ngan chiin sir phd bien vu khf hcU nhnn tbi Qude hdi Ngn nhidu lulm hii hoiin phe chudn Hiep ucic cill gidm vii khf SiV\RT II ducyc ky lir nilm 1993 dc phdn ddi ke hoach md rgng NATO den sal bien gidi Nga cun My Ve phfa My, chfnh gicii My sau dd da phe phan nhung chfnh sach ciia chfnh c|uydn Clinlon ddi vdi Nga Hg cho rdng d nuic nhili dinh nluing chfnh saeh nny ed Uie dung lieu cue: dii ginn liep Inm gin Uing "sU iham iilulng^" o cap hinh diio chinh plui vii "ldi pluun cd Id elure'^ cy' Ngn"" oi cheu na\ eung e'l nghia la "'Tliam khao(;(VJ/;i,'(' U' Bush and Russia CuneiH liisloiy sdd ii '11 ,M ^ 1.^4 mdl su lluii bai nluil dinh t^ g chuih snch cun My ddi \dyi Ngn Cnc hoe gin My cung phe pluin chfnh qi n Clinton dii him cpin il 6t lluic ddy Ngn di iheo ccy cbc dnn chii va thi trucVng va hdi nhap vao cdng ddng eae nude chin ehu phucyng Tny VI the, hg cho rang sir tiep can ciia chuih quydn Clinton ddi \'di Nga hi mgl "sir thiii bai hoan loan'\'^'^ Dcii vcii Trung Qucic, Irgng lilm ciia chfnii siieh doi ngoai cita ehinh quydn Clinton vdi Trung Qudc hi 'can 6u loiin clicn\ ndi each kluic la eung hop tac dd Ihiic ddy cai each d Trung Qudc va Uing circiug trnch nhiem eua Trung Quci'c Irong vni lid 'dcii Uie chieii lirge^ eiin My Tuy nliieiu ehinh quyen My khdng dnt du'cyc kel qun nlur mong mucin: Mv mucin ihue hien mdl sir 'can 6u loan dien' 66 Ini Trung Quci'c iheo cpu dno cun Mv nlurng khong cd Uic dung Trung Qud'c vdn dii'ng vuiig vdi the die rieng eiia minh, khdng pluii hi mdl kicii uic chicn luge' mn hi kUi'i llui eanh irnnh chien luge' cun My nlur chuih ngudi My nhnn dinh Didu nny ciing ddng iighTn In mdl tlull hai ehfnh sach dcii vcii Trung Quci'c eiin ehfnh c|uyc:n (iinlon iheo c|iiiin diem cua cac chuyen gia nghien eiiu Trung Qucic cun My.'"^ Miil kluic, riiiug (^uoe khdng eoi My hi kki'i inc chieii lu'cyc' nui hi Mrd ngni chidi lucye' eho nhung tham vgng din chfnii iri ciin minh, nlur ehinh ngirdi My dii nhnn xc:!.'"' Qunn dicm dd ciin Trung Quci'c cd the xuiit pluit Ui thue te In i i ung Qucic ed nluing the niiinh cua rieng minh: dd hi mdt eiicyng cpide ching lidi dily lren ciie Imh VUe kinh le, quiln sir chinh tri Hcyn luin, muc lieu cun liung Qude In lid lluinh mdt nircic \'Ung mnuli, Ihcing nluil xii ihinh vuong, ed xai iro noi hai o clulu A Dilv chinh hi didu nui cnc ehfnh quydn My khdng mong 6a\ Nhung muc lieu irong chfnh snch ddi ngcuii cun I Ion Kv x'd'i irung Qude khong de dal dirov moi phdn eon 6n ehinh lu phia My ChniiLi hnii iihu ehinh '" (ieoigeW Bush and Riissiii " " O i a m kha(>77/(' Umled Siaic\ ^ IRC, Public Affairs Section United Slates Fmbnssy Hanoi f I 24 Campbell, Kurl M & Mitchell, Derek J Crisis in tlie Taiwan Strait'/ Foreign Affairs Volume 80 Number July-Augu.sl, 2001 25 Campbell, Kurl M The Cusp of Strategic Summer, 2001 Volume 45 Is.sue Cliange in Asia Orbis 26 Carroll, John M & Herring, Ck-orge C (Rditors) Modern Diplomacy Scholarly RCSOLMCCS Inc Dclawaie, l