Hệ hỗ trợ quyết định cho bài toán lập kế hoạch chiến lược giao thông vận tải

V /s DAI HOC QUOC GIA HA NOI TRLTdNG DAI HOC KHOA HOC TO NHIEN -kieie-k-kicieic-kicicic-kie HE H TRO QUYET DINH • • • CHO BAITOAN LAP KE HOACH CHIEN Ll/OC GIAO THONG VAN TAI • • • • Decision Support System for Strategic Transport Planning «' ^ Ma so: QT-99-03 Chu tri de tai: PGS.TS Nguyen Van Vy V y^ HA NOI 2003 t ^ DAI HOC QUOC GIA HA NOI TRirdNG DAI HOC KHOA HOC TU NHIEN ******** HeHdTROQUY^TDINH CHO BAI TOAN LAP K£ HOACH CHIE'N LLTOC GIAO • • • • • • THONG VAN TAI • Decision Support System for Strategic Transport Planning Ma so: QT-99-03 Chu tri de tai: PGS.TS Nguyen Van Vy Tham gia: CVCC Nguyin Hiru Nguyen TS Cao Ngoc Chau CN Nguyen Ha Nam HA NOI 2003 BAO CAO TINH HINH TUlJC HIEN DE TAI NGHIEN Ctru KHOA HOC CAP DHQG A Ten de tai Tieng View He h6 trp quyet dinh cho bai toan lap ke hoach chien lupc giao thong van tai Tieng Anh: Decision Support System for Strategic Transport Planning Md so: QT-99-03 B Chu tri de tai: C Can bo phot hap: PSG.TS Nguyin Van Vy CVCC Nguy6n Huu Nguyen TS Cao Ngoc Chau CN Nguyen Ha Nam Z) Muc tieu vd not dung de tai: L Ly thuyet: Thir nghiem phan tich va thiet ke mot he Ira giiip quyet dinh cho vice lap ke hoach chien luac GTVT Thtfc nghiem: Nghicn ciiu khai thac mot vai he thong phan mem cong cu de nSm dirge kha nang va cac phuong phap giai quyet mot so mo hinh cua no Tien hanh lap trinh thu nghiem phan trp giup giai quyet mot so bai toan dien hinh so nhieu bai toan dat ciia boat dong lap ke hoach chien luac Noi dung 6i tai - Xac dinh cac bai toan dat boat ciia dong lap ke hoach chien luac phal trien Giao thong van tai va tim cac mo hinh tbich hop cho no - Tien hanh thu nghiem va khai thac cac pham mem cong cu de giai cac mo hinh cac bai toan dir bao va mo hinh cac bai toan toi uu - Thict ke buac dau he Ira giiip quyet dinh cho cac bai toan dat va tien hanh lap trinh thii nghiem he thong tra giiip c6 su dung cac phan mem cong cu de tra giiip mot so cac bai loan lap ke hoach chien luac duac nghien ciiu E Ket qua EL Ket qua nghien ciru ve mat Ichoa hoc: buac dau phan tich de xac dinh dirge cac bai loan lap ke hoach chien luge GTVT va cac mo hinh phu hcrp v6i no Tir da thiet ke duac nhung phin ca ban cua mot he trg giiip quyet dinh cho heat d6ng El.Ket qua thv[ nghiem • Tife'n hanh thu nghiem va khai thac su dung bai he phan mem c6ng cu ve du bao va cac bai toan toi iru phu vu cho viec cau tnic he trg giiip: He Eview va he Lingo • L$p chuang trinh thu nghiem tren may h6 trg cho viec giai quyet ba bai toan quan trong s6' cac bai toan du bao va lap ke hoach chien luge phat trien giao thong van tai: - Bai toan du bao ngoai suy theo ham hoi quy - Bai toan quy hoach tuyen tinh cho viec phan b6 lu6ng hang - Bai toan danh gia y kie'n chuyen gia Dae biet doi vai lap bai toan lap ke hoach phan b6 lu6ng hang da thir nghiem vai bai toan c6 quy m6 tren 600 bien va han 400 rang bugc va da dugc tu dong hoa toan bg qua trinh giai quyet bai toan tu khau cap nhat du lieu den khau dua ket qua theo yeu cau sir dung E3 Cac ket qua khdc • Dang mot bai bao tap chi Giao thong van tai (so 7/2001) • Huang din va da bao ve cong : - M6t luan van thac sy va - Mot khoa luan tot nghiep dai hgc Gl Tinh hinh su: dung kinh phi de tai: T6ng kinh phi de tai da chi la: 15.000.000 d6ng + Thue chuyen mon: 9.000.000d6ng + Cac chi khac: 4.000.000 d6ng + Viet va hoan thien bao cao, t6 chuc nghiem thu: 2.000.000 d6ng Ha noi, Ngay 30 thang 11 nam 2002 XAC NHAN CUA KHOA CHU TRI DE TAI PHOCHUNHIEMKHOA POSTS Nsuven van Vv GSJSKH: Jia^S'^i^ REPORT ON THE EXECUTION SITUATIONS OF NATIONAL INSTITUTE-LEVEL SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH SUBJECT A Subject title Decision Support System for Strategic Transport Planning Subject code : QT-99-03 B Subject^s leader : Prof Dr Nguyen Van Vy C Researcher-Participants: High Degree Expert Nguyen Huu Nguyen Dr Cao Ngoc Chau BS Nguyen Ha Nam D Subject *s Aims and Contents L In Theoretical research: Essay in the analysis and design of a support system for making decision in strategic planning of the transport industry In Experimental research activities: • Research on the exploitation of some software utilities systems in order to seize their capabilities and their methods for the solution of some models • Performance of programming support program-utilities for the solution of some typical problems in the complex series of which being identified in various strategic planning activities Subject's contents : • Identification of problems generated in the activities of strategic planning for the Development of Transport Industry and recognition of more appropriated models among them • Performance of testing and exploitation of utilities softwares for solving models of forecast problems and the ones of optimization problems • Preliminary design of support system for making decisions on these recognized problems and performance of the programmation for testing the support system with the aid of utilities softwares in the solution of some among the studied problems in the strategic planning activities E Obtained Results El On scientific research results: Preliminary analysis for identifying various problems in strategic transport planning activities and recognizing appropriated models for them Basing on which, basic components of the making decision support system have been designed E2 On experimental results : • Performance of testing and exploiting two utilities softwares, the one in forecast domain: the EVBEW software, the other in optimization domain: the LINGO software • Performance of programming and testing of programs which aid the exploitation of these software systems for solving three important problems among those of forecasting and planning in the transport strategic development: - Forecast problem using the extrapolation method basing on regressive functions; - Goods traffic allocation problem using the method of Linear progranuning; - Problem on assessing the expert suggestions In particular, for the Goods traffic aloocation planning problem, the one with 600 variables and more than 400 constraints has been tested and the complete process of its solution from the steps of input data, allocation of variables, elaboration of model basing on the regulations of the software for computer solving, run the utilitues software, reception and analysis of computed resuls written in form of various reports, has been automated E3 Other results • An article (on this subject results) has been published in the Transport Journal (No.7/2000) • Scientific guide and successful pass for - a Master of Sciences thesis and - an University graduation of a class G Spended expenses situation VND 15,000,000 Total expenses at subject's disposal ; VND 9,000.000 Having been spended : -i- for specialists hire VND 4.000.000 -h for other expenses -h for report completion and acceptance VND 2.000.000 Faculty Certification Hanoi, 30 November, 2002 Subject'Svleader y'-^ PHOCHUNHIEMKHOA C4ii Nfui\ #UrVv,; GS.TSKH: j^^^£i^ ^ ^ ^ ^ -: -.iJl^f^^-'-j'^'-^^f / / MUC LUC • • Ldi noi dau Chuang I TONG QUAN VE HE TRO GIUP QUYET DINE 1.1 Dinh nghTa he trg giiip quyet dinh 1.2 Cac phan cua DSS [3] 1.3 Cac thong DSS [3] 1.3.1 He thong quan tri dulieu a Co so du lieu b He quan tri CSDL c Phuong tien truy van d Tir di^n du lieu 1.3.2 He thong quan tri mo hinh a Co so mo hinh b He quan tri co so mo hinh c Tirdien mo hinh d Thuc hien, tich hop mo hinh va lenh 1.3.3 He thong tri thiirc 1.3.4 He giao dien hoi thoai ngudi sir dung 1.3.5 Nguoi sudung 1.3.6 Phan mem va phan ciimg cua DSS 4 7 8 10 10 11 11 11 13 14 Chuang II NHUNG VAN DE CUA KE HOACH CHIEN LUDC G L \ THONG VAN TAI VA CAC MO HINH CUA NO 2.1 Bai toan dat cho ke hoach chien luge giao thong van tai 16 2.2 Nhung van de phuong phap luan cua dir bao van tai 2.2.1 Cac noi dung dir bao ve nhu cau van tai a Cac dir bao ve van tai hang hoa b Cac dir bao ve nhu cau van tai hanh khach 2.2.2 Cac dieu kien, tien de cho cac dir bao 17 17 18 20 22 2.3 Cac mo 2.3.1 Mo 2.3.2 Mo 2.3.3 Mo 2.3.4 Mo 24 24 25 27 27 hinh hinh hinh hinh hinh va phuong phap du bao van lai ngoai suy mo phong tuong tir bai toan quy hoach 2.3.5 Phuong phap chuyen gia va bai toan sdp hang 2.3.5.1 Phuong phap chuyen gia 2.3.5.2 Bai toan sSp hang y kien chuyen gia 2.3.6 Phuong phap he so dan hoi 2.3.7 Phuong phap dinh miic -he so 2.3.8 Cac phuong phap khac 2.4 So tien hanh cac du bao ve van tai 2.4.1 So chung du bao khoi lugng van tai hang hoa 2.4.2 So chung du bao khoi luong van tai hanh khach 2.5 Phan tich, lua chon mo hinh du bao van tai hang hoa 2.5.1 Du bao khoi luong van tai hang hoa ca nu6c 2.5.1.1 Cac nhan to tac dong: 2.5.1.2 Lira chon cac mo hinh du bao 2.5.2 Du bao khoi luong van tai nu6c, ngoai nu6c 2.5.2.1 Cac nhan to tac dong 2.5.2.2 Lua chon phuong phap du bao 2.5.3 Du bao khoi lugng van tai tai cac vung, dia phuong 2.5.3.i Cac nhan to tac dong ^ 2.5.3.2 Lira chon phuong phap du bao 2.5.4 Du bao khoi luong van tai theo phuong thurc van tai 2.5.4.i Cac nhan to tac dong 2.5.4.2 Lua chon phuong phap du bao 2.6 Du bao khoi lugng van tai theo cac tuyen chinh Chuang III 30 30 31 32 33 34 35 35 37 43 43 43 45 46 46 47 48 48 49 50 50 51 60 PHAN TICH THIET KE HE THONG TRO GIUP 3.1 Tong hop cac mo hinh va phuong phap 3.1.1 He thong hoa cac mo hinh, phuong phap sirdiing 3.1.2 Sod6 tong quat cac mo hinh va phuong phap sir dung 3.2 Tien trinh giai quyet mot so bai toan chinh 3.2.1 Mo hinh ngoai suy 3.2.2 Mo hinh mo phong 3.2.3 Mo hinh tuong tu 3.2.4 Mo hinh bai loan quy hoach 3.2.5 Phuong phap chuyen gia 3.2.6 Cac phuong phap khac 61 61 63 65 66 68 69 71 73 74 3.3 Thiet ke mo hinh du lieu 3.3.1 T6ng quan ve cac loai diJ lieu 74 74 a Cac du'li^u dung chung b Cac du li6u cho phuong phap du bao cu th^ 3.3.2 Mo hinh dii lieu chinh 74 74 75 3.3.2.1 Dinh dang cac dulieu dung chung 75 3.3.2.2 Dinh dang cac du lieu cho cac bai toan ngoai suy 77 3.3.2.3 Dinh dang cac du lieu cho cac bai toan quy hoach 3.3.2.3 Dinh dang cac du lieu cho cac bai toan chuyen gia 3.4 So thiet ke' t6ng the' ciaa he thong 77 78 75 Chuang IV HE THONG CAC CHUDNG TRINH THlTNGHIEM 4.1 Thu nghiem phdn m e m EVIEW de du bao 4.1.1 Gi6i thieu ve ph^n mem EVIEW 82 82 4.1.2 Sudung Eview tien hanh cac dubao 82 4.1.3 Kha nang tich hop EVIEW he trg giup 83 4.2 P h ^ m e m trg giup bai toan phan b6 luong hang 4.2.1 Bai toan phan b6 cac mat hang chinh a Dieu kien bai toan: b Dat bai toan 4.2.2 He thong chuong trinh thir nghiem a Mo ta he th6ng 83 83 83 84 85 85 b Cach sudung 4.2.3 Ket qua tuih toan va nhan xet a Ket qua tinh toan thii nghiem b Mot so nhan xet 4.3 Phan mem trg giup du bao van tai hang hoa 4.3.1 Gi6i thieu he thong [8] 4.3.2 He thong d u b a o khoi lugng van tai ca nu6c 4.4 Phan mem trg giup quye't dinh v6i danh gia ciia chuyen gia 4.4.1 Cac bai toan xu ly y kie'n chuyen gia a Bai toan khong nhan b Bai toan co nhan 4.4.2 He thong trg giup quyet dinh [9] a Gidi thieu ve he thong b Mo so ket qua c Mg so giao dien ciia he trg giiip quyet dinh 87 88 88 89 9C 90 90 10^ 106 106 106 107 107 108 109 Tai lieu tham khao 11^ Phuluc 11 ^ LOINOIOAU Viec umg dung tin hoc hoa cac boat dong quan ly cang phat tri^n manh me Trong so cac he thong thong tin dugc xay dung, he trg giiip quyet dinh co mot y nghia r^t quan trong viec nang cao ch^t lugng ciia cac quyet dinh quan ly Viec nghien ciiru d^ xay dung nhung he trg giup chung cho nhieu boat dong khac doi hoi rat nhieu cong cua Them vao do, nhiing he nhu vay thucmg kho su dung hoac doi hoi nguoi su dimg phai co trinh dp cao hay phai co thcri gian dao tao du dai Vi ly do, nhieu he trg giiip cho viec quyet dinh quan ly thucmg dugc xay dung cho mot linh vuc hay nhung boat dong cu the' De tai "He trg giup quyet dinh cho bai toan lap ke hoach chien luge giao thong van tai " dugc dat di theo hu6ng V6i th5i gian va kinh phi co han, de tai m6i chi dijng lai miirc thiet ke va tien hanh thu nghiem xay dung he thong tren nhung phan co ban nha'l Con nhieu phdn chua dugc xem xet Them vao do, nhung phan thu nghiem mac du CO the su dung dugc, nhung chua tien dung D^ co the dua no vao sir dung c^n phai tie'p tuc hoan thien them nhieu nua Tuy nhien, qua viec nghien ciiru thu nghiem da giup cho nhung ngucri giang day va nghien ciiru ling diing nhieu kinh nghiem va tu Heu quy d^ phu vu cong tac giang day va trien khai limg dung Noi dung bao cao cua de tai ngoai phan muc luc, ket luan, tai lieu tham khao va phii liic bao gom bon chuong: Chuang I Tong quan ve he tra giup quyet dinh Chuang II Cac van de cua ke hoach chien luac giao thong van tai va cdc mo hinh cua no Chuang III Phan tich thiet kehe thong ira giup Chuang I\' He thong cdc chuang trinh thu ngliiem IV MESSAGE "Du bdo " DEFINE BAR ()F tim PROMPT V" DEFINE BAR (^F tim PROMPT "Ke't thuc" ; MESSAGE "K£ft thuc" ON BAR OF tim ACTIVATE POPUP Dulieu3 DEFINE POPUP dulieu3 MARGIN RELATIVE SHADOW COLOR SCHEME DEFINE BAR OF dulieu3 PROMPT "Dii lieu ban ddu " ; MESSAGE "Nhdp dii lieu ban ddu" on bar of dulieu3 acti popup bandau3 DEFINE POPUP bandau3 MARGIN RELATIVE SHADOW COLOR SCHEME DEFINE BAR OF bandau3 PROMPT "Nhdp mdi dii lieu ban ddu " ; MESSAGE "Nhdp dii lieu ban ddu" DEFINE BAR OF bandau3 PROMPT "Xem dii lieu ban ddu " ; MESSAGE "Xem du lieu ban ddu" DEFINE BAR OF bandau3 PROMPT "Sira dii lieu ban ddu " ; MESSAGE "Siia dii lieu ban ddu" DEFINE BAR OF bandau3 PROMPT "In dii lieu ban ddu " ; MESSAGE "In dii lieu ban ddu" ON ON ON ON ( SELE BAR OF BANDAU3 DO nhapdl SELE BAR OF BANDAU3 DO xemdl SELE BAR OF BANDAU3 DO suadl SELE BAR OF BANDAU3 DO indl , t i DEHNE BAR OF dulieu3 PROMPT "Gia thie't"; MESSAGE "Gia thi€ft" ON SELE BAR OF DULIEU3 DO giathiet DEnNE BAR OF dulieu3 PROMPT "Xu ly dii lieu " ; MESSAGE "Xii ly dii lieu" on bcu of dulieu3 acti popup bandau4 DEFINE POPUP bandau4 MAR(\IN RELATIVE SHADOW COLOR SCHEME DEFINE BAR OF bandau4 PROMPT "Xir ly dii lieu ban ddu " ; MESSAGE "Xu ly dii lieu ban ddu" DEFINE BAR OF bandau4 PROMPT "Xem dii lieu xu ly "; MESSAGE "Xem dii lieu da qua xu ly" DEFINE BAR OF bandau4 PROMPT "In dii lieu xu ly ' ; MESSAGE "In dii lieu da qua xir ly" ON SELE BAR OF BANDAU4 DO xulydlbd ON SELE BAR OF BANDAU4 DO xemdlbd ON SELE BAR OF BANDAU4 DO indlbd ON BAR OF tim ACTIVATE POPUP dubao41 DEFINE POPUP dubao4] MARGIN RELATIVE SHADOW COLOR SCHEME DEFINE BAR OF dubao41 PROMPT "Du bao vimg " ; MESSAGE "Chon h;"\m du bdo vung" DEFINE BAR OF dubao41 PROMPT "Du bdo dia phuong" MESSAGE "Dir bdo dia phuang" DEFINE BAR OF dubao41 PROMPT "In k€[ 'jui" MESSAGE "In ke't qua" ON SELE BAR OF DUBA041 DO db^/ung ON SELE BAR OF DUBA041 DO dbdphuong ON SELE BAR OF DUBA041 DO inkq * * « * * Ik * sic* % ik 3k * ic Me 4c :«i 3k DEFINE POPUP tuyen MARGIN RELATIVE SHADOW COLOR SCHEME DEFINE BAR OF tuyen PROMPT "Dii lieu " DEFINE BAR OF tuyen PROMPT 'V" DEFINE BAR OF tuyen PROMPT "Du bao"; MESSAGE "Du bdo " DEFINE BAR OF tuyen PROMPT V" DEFINE BAR OF tuyen PROMPT "Ke't thuc" ; MESSAGE "Ke't thuc" ON BAR OF tuyen ACTIVATE POPUP Dulieu4 DEFINE POPUP dulieu4 MARGIN RELATIVE SHADOW COLOR SCHEME DEFINE BAR OF dulieu4 PROMPT "Dii lieu ban ddu " ; MESSAGE "Nhap dii lieu ban ddu" on bar of dulieu4 acti popup bandauS DEFINE POPUP bandauS MARGIN RELATIVE SHADOW COLOR SCHEME DEFINE BAR OF bandauS PROMPT "Nhdp mdi dii lieu ban ddu " ; MESSAGE "Nhap dii lieu ban ddu" DEFINE BAR OF bandauS PROMPT "Xem dii lieu ban ddu " ; MESSAGE "Xem dii lieu ban ddu" DEHNE BAR OF bandauS PROMPT "Sira dii lieu ban ddu " ; MESSAGE "Siia dii lieu ban ddu" DEFINE BAR OF bandauS PROMPT "In dii lieu ban ddu " ; MESSAGE "In du lieu ban ddu" ON ON ON ON SELE SELE SELE SELE BAR OF BANDAUS DO nhaptuyen BAR OF BANDAUS DO xemdl BAR OF BANDAUS DO suadl BAR OF BANDAUS DO indl \ DEFINE BAR OFdulieu4 PROMPT "Gia thie'l " ; MESSAGE "Gia thie't" ON SELE BAR OF DULTEU4 DO giathiet DEFINE BAR OF dulicu4 PROMPT "Xu ly dii lieu " ; MESSAGE "Xir ly dii lieu" on bar of dulieu4 acti popup bandau6 DEFINE POPUP bandau6 MARGIN RELATIVE SHADOW COLOR SCHEME DEFINE BAR OF bandau6 PROMPT "Xir ly dii lieu h;.n