Nghiên cứu các yếu tố quyết định đến chính sách chi trả cổ tức bằng kĩ thuật hồi quy fama macbeth bằng chứng thực nghiệm tại việt nam

Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang & BM Kim Phuong, Tap chi Phat tri6n Kinh te, 28(9), 04-24 Nghien cum cac yeu to quyit dinh cten chinh sach chi tra co ttic bing ki thulfit hoi quy Fama MacBeth: Bing chting thurc nghqm tai Vi0 Nam NGUYEN THI NGQC TRANG Tnr6ng Dai hoc Kinh to TP.HCM — trangtcdn@ueh.edu.vn BUT KIM PHVONG Trireng Dai hoc Van Lang — buikinaphuong@vanlanguni.edu.vn Ngay nhan: 23/08/2017 Ngay nhan lai: 27/09/2017 Ngay duyet nang: 29/09/2017 Ma- so: 0817-G19-V13 Tir khoa: Chinh sach c6 tlrc; KT thuat Fama - MacBeth; Kha nang sinh Mire • nam gift tien; Tinh khoan Keywords: Dividend policy; Fama MacBeth method; Profitability; Cash holdings; Liquidity Nshien dm xem xet cac yeu to guy& dinh den chinh sach chi tra ca tirc cua cac cong ty phi tai chinh niem yet tren Thi truOing Chimg khoan Viet Nam giai doan 2008-2015 bang ki thuat hen quy Fama - MacBeth Cu the, nghien dm se phan tich tac Ong cua quy ma cong ty, kha nang sinh 19i, co hei tang tilting, rui ro, \long d6i cong ty, tinh khoan cua c6 phieu, don bay tai chinh va mac de nam gift tien len quyet dinh chi tra ca tac cong ty Kat qua chi kha Wang sinh 19a, mix de nam gift tien, tinh khoan cua co phieu va yang doi cong ty dOng vai tro quan trong chinh sach chi tra co tac Ngoai ra, co hei tang tnrong va dOn bay tai chinh ding co tac Ong den quyet dinh chi tra co tac Trong do, yeu to lai la quy m6 cong ty va riti ro khong c6 anh hiking gi den quyet dinh Abstract This paper examines the determinants of the dividend payout policy of non-financial firms listed on the Vietnamese stock market for the period between 2008 and 2015 using Fama and MacBeth's (1973) methodology Specifically, we analyze the effects of firm size, profitability, growth opportunities, risk, firm life-cycle, stock liquidity, financial leverage, and cash holdings on firms' dividend payout policy The results show that profitability, cash holdings, stock liquidity, and firm life-cycle play an important role in firms' dividend policy In addition, growth opportunities and financial leverage are determinants of dividend policy, whereas firm size and risk not exert any effects on dividend decision of a firm Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang & BM Kim Phuang, Tap chi Phat trien Kinh te, 28(9), 04-24 Gieri thi0 Trong tai chinh doanh nghiep, c6 mot gia dinh lam nen tang cho nhieu nghien ciru han lam, la quyet dinh cua nha quan li nham muc tieu toi da hoa tai san cua c8 &Ong Cac quyet dinh cua nha quan tri tai chinh cong ty bao gem: Quyet dinh du to va quyet dinh tai trg Quyet dinh dau tu lien quan den viec xac dinh lo4i tai san ma cong ty muen nam giir Trong do, quyet dinh tai trg lien quan den viec xac dinh nguen yen can thiet de cung cap cho hoat dOng san xuat kinh doanh va hoat Ong &Au to cua cong ty Ben canh quyet dinh dau tu va guy& dinh tai tra, quyet dinh chinh sach chi tra ce tirc ding la mot van de quan cua cong ty vi no xac dinh phan Igi nhuan cong ty phan phei cho ce dong va phan Igi nhuan cong ty giiz lai tai dau tu Chinh sach ce tut xac dinh quy mo va each thirc phan phi lgi nhuan cho ce (long theo thoi gian 118i ding quan tri se quyet dinh chinh sach co tirc cua cong ty a Quyet dinh chinh sach chi tra co tire t6i uu la mot lira chon Idle khan vi viec chi tra tac Ong den ca gia tri cua ce dong va co h8i dau tu dm ding ty Quyet dinh Tau ttr, quyet dinh tai to va quy& dinh chi tra ce tire cc') lien quan lan nen nha guar' li Ichong the guy& dinh chi tra ce tirc ma khong xem xet den guy& dinh dau cu va quyet dinh tai fro Tren thirc te, cac nha quan II cong ty can nhac rat can than lira chon chit-1h sach ce tirc bai vi ho tin rang guy& dinh se anh hueing den gia tri ding ty va gia tri cua di dong Ngoai ra, cac nha dau tu rat xem chinh sach ce tirc vi ho gop yen vao cong ty vai ki vong se &roc hoan lai mot so tien nhac dinh nao tuung lai Do vay, cac nha quail 11 tinning guy& dinh dira tren quan diem la chinh sach ce tirc c6 tac dOng den gia tri cong ty mac du li thuyet dm Miller va Modigliani (1961) lai cho ring chinh sach ce tire khong lien quan den gia tri cong ty Viet Nam, al kha nhieu nghien ciru xem xet cac yeu to anh htrang den chinh sach ce tirc dia ding ty, dien hinh nhu: Vo Xuan Vinh (2013, 2015) va To Thi Thanh Trite (2017), Tran Thi Hai LS'i va Do Thi Bay (2015), Tran Thi Than Anh (2016), Nguyen Khac Quec Bao va Nguyen Thi Thiry Linh (2016) Hau het nhting nghien ciru phan tich tac dOng cua quy mo, kha nang sinh Igi, ea h8i tang triromg, don bay tai chinh, mire Warn giu tien va rui ro he theng len chinh sach ce tire dm cong ty, nhien, rui ro dac thu va tinh khoan cua co phieu hien chua dugc xem xet nghien ciru ye chinh sach chi tra ce tut cua cong ty De danh gia ding quat va toan dien, nghien ciru se xem xet them tac Ong cua rui ro dac tha, tinh khoan cua co phieu va yang Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang & BM Kim Plrang, Tap chi Phat trthn Kinh th, 28(9), 04-24 den cong ty den guy& dinh chi tra co tire Ben canh d6, ngoai cac each xir li du lieu bang bang mo hinh htn quy Op (Pooled), tae dOng co dinh (FEM) va tat dOng ngau nhien (REM) da duot sir dung nhi:mg nghien ciru truot, nghien eiru nay, tac gia se tie!) can van de theo mot khae, d6 la sir dung ki thuat hoi quy dugc Fama va MacBeth (1973) de xuat nham lam phong phu them tai lieu hoc thuAt ve chinh sach co tire & Viet Nam Theo do, nghien ciru &rot eau true nhu sau: Phan trinh bay co' se(' li thuyet va lugc khdo cac cong trinh nghien ciru thus nghiem c6 lien quan; Du lieu va phucmg phap nghien ciru duvc mo to phan 3; Phan trinh bay ket qua nghien ciru va thao luAn; va phan ket luAn va ggi 3'T chinh sach Ccr s& li thuyet va hive klMo cac cong trinh nghien cum thtyc nghiem c6 lien quan 2.1 Ca so li thuy& Miller va Modigliani (1961) trinh bay mot phan tich ve moi quan he giaa chinh sach co tire, tang trikmg va dinh gia co phan Teen co so cac gia dinh ve thi truemg von hoan hao (khong c6 thua, khong c6 chi phi giao dich va chi phi dai dien, tit ca moi nguoi deu c6 thong tin nhu nhau), Miller va Modigliani (1961) dua nhAn dinh ve sr khong lien quan cua et) tire Trong the gi&i li Wang cua ho, chinh sach dau tu la yeu to quyet dinh nhat den gia tri cong ty Thong diep ve sit khong lien quan cila Miller va Modigliani eho rang chinh sach chi tra la mot van de kinh to khong quan ma cat nha quail li c6 the be qua Bang each noi long mot se) gia dinh mo hinh dia Miller va Modigliani (1961), mot so li thuyet da duvc phat trier) nham giai thich cho chinh sach co tire ciia cong ty, bao Om: Li thuyet ve hieu irng khach hang; chi phi dai dien va li thuyet clang tien to do, thong tin bAt doi xirng va li thuyet phat tin hieu 2.1.1 Li thuyt ve hieu ieng khach hang Nghien ciru Miller va Modigliani (1961) ding ma rOng tranh luAn rang thi truang von khong hoan hao se ton tai viec tra thich co N thong d'tSi yen cac co phieu chi tra ce, tire cao c6 the dan den hieu irng khach hang ma do, cac nha dau tu se Iva chon nhang co phieu theo so thich cua ho Vi the, chinh sach co tire cila mot cong ty co xu thu hitt cac nh6m nha (tau to khac tay thuOc vao cac nha dau tu mong mu& nhAn dirge tong ti suat sinh Igi tren von dau to cira ho nhu the nao Nhu vAy, hieu Nguyen TM Ngac Trang & BM Kim Phuang, Tap chi Phat trien Kinh te, 28(9), 04-24 img khach hang se xay chinh sach ca tirc dm ding ty huOng vao se( thich cua nhOm nha dAu to nhamdat ducrc muc dich gia tang gia tri cong ty Tinh khoan va chinh sach co tiro Do thi truerng bat hoan hao nen cac nha Tau to tin rang mot ca phieu c6 tinh khoan cao han thi tat hem va thgc ura thich co tut mat phAn tiny vao tinh khoan cua co phieu (Banerjee & cong su, 2007) Cu the, nhang ngueri Warn gat ca phieu kern khoan se tra thich ca tirc de thod man cho nhu- cau tien mat han la ban ca phieu va ganh chiu chi phi giao dich Twang tu, toan ca tirc cho phep nha &Au to giam chi phi giao dich mot each hieu qua tai can bang danh muc cua ho bang each giam nhu cAu giao dich cac tai san kern khoan That vay, Bray va cong sir (2005) da thuc hien mot cu8c khdo sat cac giam dac tai chinh, ket qua cho thay tinh khoan la mot nhan to quan tic Ong den quyet dinh chi tra ea tdc Dong va cong su (2005) ding quan diem vai Bray va cong su (2005) cho rang cac nha dAu to ca nhan tra thich co tire mot phan la chung c6 chi phi giao dich thap han ca phieu Nhu vay, cave Ii thuyet va nghien cuu thuc nghiem deu cho rang six bat hoan hao cua thi throng có tic dOnglOn den guy& dinh chi tra co tirc cua cac ding ty Khi cac yeti to khac khong dai, cac ding ty c6 ca phial.' kern khoan se hap can cac nha dau to han nhu cat' tien mat va muc tieu tai can bang danh muc Vi vay, cac ca phieu duac chi tra co tirc nham thod man nhu cAu cua nha &Au to ye tinh khoan la mot bieu hien caa hieu Crng khach hang Thud va chinh sach co tirc Theo Miller va Modigliani (1961), mot the kh6ng c6 thue, ca &Ong se trung lap giira ca tire va lai van Tuy nhien, thue suit danh teen lai van thap han thue suit danh tren thu nhap thong thuerng, ca Tong la nha dAu to li se muan nhan thu nhap duoi hinh thdc lai van han so vii ca tot Nguerc 14i, thue suit danh tren lai von cao han thue suit danh tren thu nhap thong thu mg, ca &Ong se main nhan thu nhap dtroi hinh thirc co tire han so veri lai van Bari vi cac nha dau to ca nhan thu mg c6 thue suit danh tren thu nhap thong thuOng cao han so \Teri lai yen nen xet ve mat 11 thuyet, cac cong ty se khong chi tra ea tirc neu ho muan t6i da h6a tai san cho ca Tong Thay vao do, cac cong ty se mua lai ca phan de phan phai thu nhap, dieu cho phep cac ca &Ong khong phai thing thue thu nhap cao han doi tire Neu vay thi tai cac cong ty van tiep tuc chi tra co tirc bang tien mat cac ca (long cira ho co qua sau thud cao han th8ng qua mua lai ca phan? Trong nhieu thap ki qua, rat nhieu nghien dru da dugc thuc hien nham tim kiem cac Nguyen Thi Ngoc hang & Bill Kim Phtrong, Top chi Phat trien Kinh te, 28(9), 04-24 manh ghep thieu cua birc tranh ma Black (1976) goi la cau co tirc l MOt nhting II giai cho cau co tirc la Ii thuyet su Ira thich ve thud Nghien ciru dm Farrar va Selwyn (1967) dugc xem la nghien ciru dAu tier' ve thud va chinh such co tirc Cac nghien ciru sau d6 dm Elton va Gruber (1970) va Elton va cong su (1984) tim thy bang chirng cho rang cac nha dAu to khung thud cao tra thich cac co phidu c6 ti suit co tirc thAp, cac nha dAu tu khung thud thap ua thich cac co phieu c6 ty' suit c6 tirc cao Bang chimg ling 110 y Wang khach hang co tirc dia Miller va Modigliani (1961) Nghien ciru dm Pettit (1977) sir dung mot mo hinh hdi quy bOi de phan tich vi the danh muc cua cac tai khoan ca nhan cling cho thy cac nha clAu to ca nhan tre han o cac khung thud thAp va cac nha dAu ttr c6 su khac biet clang ke glib thud suit tinh teen thu nhAp thOng throng va thud suit tinh tren lai von ua thich num giu nhang co phieu c6 ti suit co tirc cao 2.1.2 Chi phi dal dien vet li thuyjt ddng tien hr Li thuyet clang tien to gia dinh rang cac cong ty chi tra co tirc de khac phuc van de dui dien xuAt phut tir su tach biet gitra quyen so huu va quyen kiem soat mot cong ty 16.n c6 quyen sa hitu phan tan Trong mot cong ty nhir vAy, hAu het cac nha clAu tu !thong co nang hoc dOng ca de giam sat va kiem soat tat ca cac hog dOng cua ban quan 11 Trong truing hop do, nha quan 11 c6 clOng co tham gia vao cac hog dOng ma c6 the khong vi lgi ich tot nhAt cua cac nha du tu MOt bieu hien dia dieu la cac nha quail li c6 mot lugng Ion dong tien nhung cac ca hOi dAu tu lai han chd DAu tu qua mirc throng xay o cac cong ty c6 mirc &mg tien tu cao nhAt Cac nha quan 11 vi lgi ich ban than se c6 dOng ca dAu tu tien mat du thira vao cac hoat dOng c6 the lam giam gia tri cong ty Nhiing hanh &Ong bao gom nhiing dAc quyen khong can thiet hoc mua lai va m& rOng cong ty ma khOng c6 ca Do do, cac nha nghien ciru thuang goi kich ban la van de dAu to qua mirc MOt giai phap thi cho van de la giam lugng tien tu c6 sun doi ved cac nha quan 11 Jensen (1986) cho rang chi tra co tilt la mot cach de thuc hien muc tieu Easterbrook (1984) cling dua lAp luAn Wang tu Theo Jensen (1986), cac nha quan li c6 dOng ca mo rOng cong ty vugt qua quy mo tdi tru beri vi quy mo lci.n hart clOihOi phai tang ngudn luc dtroi su kiem soat cua ho Flan nib., cac khoan luang, throng hay phtic lgi cling se cao han vi quy mo Lon hon DOng ca phuc vu ban than se khien cac nha quan ' Black (1976) clä ket ludn rang: "Chung to cling nhin vao bite tranh c6 tin thi n6 cang gi6ng nhu mOt cau do, vai nhtng manh ghdp kh6ng khOp vdi nhau" Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang & Biii Kim Phuung, Tap chi Phat trier, Kinh te, 28(9), 04-24 tu vao nhieu du an ma khong can nhac ki Itrang dan viec du an c6 kha nang lam giam gia tri ding ty hoac c6 giA tri hien tai rang (Net Present Value — NPV) am hay khong He trAnh su giam sat chat the has cua thi trugng, cac nha quan li khong mu6n tim kiem ngu6n tai trg ben ngoai de dau to vao cac du an c6 NPV am ma ho se dua vao nguon von not 1)8 Su hien din dia dung tin tu clang ka cho phep cac nha quan li dau tu quA mirc Cac nha dau to nhan thirc dugc van de dai dien nen ho phan ung tich cut voi nhirng thong bao tang c6 tire ki vong vao kha nang dau tu qua mirc se giam xu6ng Ham y quan nhat cua li thuyat dung tin tu IA su phan phi tien mat gia tang, chang han nhu bat dal' chi tra c6 tirc hoac tang c6 tire se lam tang gia tri cong ty giam dugc cac van da dau to quA muc tim An Ngtrot lai, thong bac) giam c6 tuc se tao phan &rig thi trtiong tieu cuc 2.1.3 Thong tin befit clai xang va li thuy& phat tin hie:u Tien de dm li thuyet Oat tin hiau la th8ng tin bat d6i xirng hien hau giaa cac nha quan li cong ty va thi throng Viac thay d6i chinh sach chi tra c6 tirc c6 kha nang Oat cac tin hiau ve cong ty va do lam giam sty bat d6i ximg thong tin Miller va Rock (1985) phat trian mot mo hinh v6i gia dinh rang nha quan li cong ty biet nhiau han cac nha dau tu ben ngoai ve ban chat cua thu nhap hien tai cita cong ty Cac nha guar' li dugc khuyan khich tang chi tra c6 tirc (hoac giam tai trg tir ben ngoai) \Teri inuc Bich tang gia c6 phiau throng Miller va Rock (1985) cho rang cac nha quan li c6 the c6 gang loai bo nhang bat d6i ximg ton tai Miller va Rock gan cac cau hoi va chi tra c6 tuc va tai trg tir ben ngoai vai khai niam c6 tuc rung Nghia la, mot thong bao tai trg thuc to la mot thong bao chi tra c6 tirc am Khai niam xem phat hanh c6 phiau ging nhu chi tra c6 tirc am Ho cho thay c6 tirc va tai trg hai mat d6i lap cua ding mot van de Gia tri c6 tire rang &rang c6 the dugc xem nhu c6 tire, gia tri c6 tirc rang am c6 the dugc xem nhu tai trg Miller va Rock cho rang mot su thay d6i bat ng6 thu nhap co tac dOng tuang tu len lgi nhuan cong ty nhu mot su thay d6i bat ng& chi tra c6 tirc Ho kat luan rang thong bao thu nhap, c6 tut va tai trg c6 lien quan chat che Ngoai ra, xu huong chi tra c6 tire hien tai la ca so de thi tru6ng du phOng thu nhap tuang lai Chinh sach c.6 tire la ca so de phat tin hieu v6 thu nhap dugc ki vong tuang lai Ngoai ra, chinh sach c6 tuc thy nghi thong bao thu nhap thi kh8ng Cac nha dau to nhan rang cac cong ty khong mu6n cat giam c6 thy Theo do, nha dau tu c6 the xem mot su gia tang c6 tire nhu mot tin hiau va trien vong thu nhap tuang lai cua cong ty la tich cue Nguyen Thi Nguc Trang & BM Kim Phuung, Tap chi Phat tritn Kinh te, 28(9), 04-24 10 Rat nhieu nghien ciru da dugc tien hanh linh vuc nhung giai hoc thuat van chua c6 dugc dap an hoan chinh cho cau co tirc M.Ot lugng cac nghien ciru cho thAy viec giai quyet van de h8c bila khong don gian va cling kh8ng ri5 rang Co tire van la mot nhang bai toan gai goc nhat tai chinh doanh nghiep (Baker & Ong str, 2002) 2.2 Lvov khao cac nghien ciru thyr nghiem lien quan va xcly clung gia thuye't nghien cast Co tirc la mot phAn cim lgi nhuan cong ty, do, co tirc dugc chi tra nhieu hay it truck tien phu thuOc vao cong ty host dOng mang lai lgi nhuan cao hay thap Theo Amidu va Abor (2006), kha nang sinh Igi cita cong ty la mot nhan to quyet dinh ctaa chinh sach ca tire Fama va French (2002) cling iingh8 lap luan nay: Cac cong ty c6 xu htrong tang chi tra ca tire kha nang sinh lgi tang va tranh gift lai Igi nhuan cong ty Mat khac, theo li thuyet ve chi phi dai dien va &mg tien to dm Jensen (1986), cac nha dAu to khong muan cong ty c6 dong tien to qua cao vi lo sg hien tugng dAu to qua mirc nen yeu cAu chi tra ca tirc cao hurl c6 mirc sinh lgi cao MM Prang quan dugc tim thay cac nghien ciru th%rc nghiem tren thi trtrong mai not Tha Nhi Ky ctaa Adaoglu (2000) va tren thi tnrimg My dia Pruitt va Gitman (1991) Do do, nghien ciru nay, gia thuyet H1 dugc tac gia de xuat nhu sau: Hi: MCfi quan he girea quyjt dinh chi tra cd tirc va khci nang sinh lai cita cong ty la cling Do guy& dinh dAu ttr, quyet dinh tai trg va guy& dinh chi tra ca tire thong nhat va phu thu8c lan nen Ong co chi tra co tirc caa cong ty va mirc ca tirc se phu thuOc vao tiem nang tang truarng va dAu ttr Nhieu nghien ciru chi cac co h8i tang trizong san c6 se lam can kiet nguan tien c6 the dugc sir dung de chi tra co tirc cita cong ty nhu: Faccio va cong six (2001), Gayer va Gayer (1993), Smith va Watts (1992) Theo li thuyet \tong del cong ty, cac ding ty khOng tang truerng ho# tang truorng chain se tra ca tire cao vi ho da a giai doan truoug Trong do, cac ding ty tang twang cao co xu huong gift lai hAu het lgi nhuan de giam sir phu thu8c vao nguan tai trg tan kern tir ben ngoai (Alli & cong sta., 1993) Nguyen nhan la viec dAu to vao van luan chuyen can thiet de h8 trg tang truang cao hon &mg tien gia tang tang twang doanh thu (Higgins, 1981) Tuy nhien, mai quan he ngugc chieu gifts chi tra co tirc va cac co h8i tang truoug chi c6 gia tri a cac nude c6 phap lust bao ve manh dai vai cac ca dong (Mitton, 2004) Tren thuc te, net' cac co d8ng cam thay khong an toan va nghi nger kha nang chia se lgi nhuan Wong lai ctia cong ty thi ho se thich nhan lgi nhuan er hien Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang & BM Kim Phming, Tap chi Phat trien Kinh te, 28(9), 04-24 11 tai han bang cach gay ap luc buOc cong ty phai tra c8 tirc bat ke cac ca hOi tang truang c6 sAn (La Porta & cong sir, 2000) Tai Viet Nam, thi truOng nhieu bat on va han the phap li ve bao ve cac c6 dong thieu s8, tac gia ki vong cac nhA dAu to luon muon dugc chi tra co tirc cho du cong ty c6 du bao ve cac ca hOi tang truemg cao, d6, tac gia de xuat gia thuyet H2 nhu sau: 1-12: Mai quan he gag quye't dinh chi tra ca tac va ca hqi dau tic caa cong ty la nguyc Theo Jensen va Meckling (1976), cac nhA quail li c6 quyen kiem soat nhieu cac cong ty Ian han vai quyen hal duoc phan tan nhieu han O cac cong ty nay, cac co /long it c6 dOng va kha nang giam sat Vi the, mirc di) nghiem dm van de dai dien va bat d6i ximg thong tin tang len Thong qua mot ti le chi tra c8 tirc cao, cac ding ty co the giri nhilng tin hieu tich cuc cho co &Ong ve trier) \Tong twang lai cua cong ty, thien y ciia ban guar' li va mirc dO mau thuAn dai dien thAp (Lloyd & cong su, 1985) Thien y cila ban guar' li duoc the hien khong chi viec chia se lgi nhuan cua cong ty vai c8 (long ma viec sdn sang chiu su giam sat ciiAthi truerng von nhu cAu ve ngu'on tai trg dr ben ngoai gia tang mire chi tra co tirc cao (Bhattacharya, 1979) Ca van de giam sat va van de khong thich rui ro deu duoc giam xueing neu cong ty lien tuc huy dOng van 118 sung tir thi truemg Trong truemg hop d6, nha cfau to c6 ca hOi de kiern tra chat the hog &Ong kinh doanh cua cong ty va ban quan li c6 nhieu kha nang hanh dOng vi lgi ich cua nhA Tau to han (Easterbrook, 1984) Do vay, cac ding ty 16n han vai c8 dong phan tan han se mu8n chi tra c8 tire nhieu han Gia thuyet tiep theo la: H3: Mai quan he giaa quye't dinh chi tra ca tac va quy ma caa cong ty la cang Khi nghien ciru ve tac dOng cua cau frac von len chinh sach co tirc, Crutchley va Hansen (1989) tim thay m8i quan he ngugc chieu gitra ti le ng va chinh sach c8 tirc Cac cong ty c6 ti le ng cao se cat giam c8 tirc, mot cach to nguyen hoac dugi ap lirc cua ch6 ng, nham tri luo:ng tien mat can thiet cho viec hoan nghia vu vai cho ng (Agrawal & Jayaraman, 1994; Faccio & cong su, 2001; Gugler & Yurtoglu, 2003) Ngoai ra, su gia tang rui ro sir dung nhieu ng lam tang chi phi tai trg tir ben ngoai, vi vay, cac cong ty se phu thuOc nhieu han vao lgi nhuan gift tai Han rata, viec chi tra co tirc thap se lam tang van chi' hiru tren bang can d6i ice toan va cai thien cac ti s8 don bay, chang han nhu ti se) no tren Von hoac ti so ng tren tai sari, -Ur do, dO tin nhiem cua cong ty cling tang len Viec cai thien nhang ti se) se tao dieu kien thuan lgi cho 12 Nguyen Thi Ngnc Trang & BM Kim Phucrng, Tap chi Phat tri6n Kinh ti, 28(9), 04-24 cong ty viec gia han ng va giam thieu chi phi tai chinh Vi the, mei quan he gift ti le ng va mirc chi tra c6 tirc dugc ki vong la ngtrgc chieu Do do, tac gia de xuat gia thuyet tiep theo nhu sau: H4:Mai quan he gag quj4t dinh chi tra co tirc va mirc dO sir dung don bay tai chinh cua cong ty la ngtroc DeAngelo va cong six (2006) de xuat li thuyet vong dai ve c6 tirc, theo do, nhang nam dau mai lap, cong ty tra c6 tirc it han cac ca h6i dau to cao han so vori von dugc tao tix not b6 Ngtrgc 14i, nhimg nam sau do, cong ty tra ca tirc nhieu han de giam thieu kha nang dung tien to bi Yang phi van dugc tao tir not ba da cao han cac ca hai dau tu DeAngelo va cong str (2006) chirng minh li thuyet bang cach sir dung ti s6191 nhuan giir lai tren tong tai san de dal dien cho giai doan vong dal cua mot cong ty Nhang nghien ciru sau cua Fairchild va cong sir (2014), Banyi va Kahle (2014), Manos va cong six (2012) cling tim thay mai quan he cling chieu gifra xu huang chi tra c6 tire va yang dai cua cong ty -Nang tg, nghien ciru cling sir dung ti s6 lgi nhuan gill lai tren tong tai san de dai dien cho vong dai Ira xem xet tac dang cua no den chinh sach c6 tirc cua cong ty qua viec kiem dinh gia thuyet sau: H5:Mai quan he giera quyet dinh chi tra ca tac va vong ddi cua cong ty la cling chiti Khi nghien eau ve chinh sach c6 cac cong ty a My giai dog' 19632003, Banerjee va cong sir (2007) tim thay tinh khoan cua c6 phieu c6 the giai thich mat phan cho xu huang chi tra ca tdc cua cong ty O nhang thi truang c6 tinh khoan cua c6 phieu thap thi nha dau to phai chiu chi phi giao dich cao Do do, nha dau to li thich ca phieu c6 tinh khoan cao han va dinh gia thap c6 phieu kern khoan Theo Ii thuyet hieu ling khach hang, cac cong ty c6 khoan thap c6 xu huang chi tra c6 tirc nhieu han de gia tang dinh gia cua minh Nhu \fay, tinh khoan cua ca phieu Wang quan ngugc chieu vai guy& dinh chi tra co tirc cua cong ty Bang chirng thirc nghiem cua Banerjee va cong sir (2007) thong nhat vai ket qua cua Bulan va cong str (2007) cho rang six kien bat dau chi tra c6 tirc xay thuang xuyen han a nhang cong ty kern khodn Kuo va cong sir (2013), Kale va cong six (2012) cling tim thay mai quan he ngtrgc chieu c6 y nghia thong ke gitra quyet dinh chi tra c6 tirc va tinh khoan cua cong ty Do \fay, gia thuyet H6 dugc de xuat nghien ciru la: 116: Mai quan he gicra quyAt dinh chi tra ca tirc va tinh khoan cua cd phiju la nguov Rui ro cling la mot nhan to quan trong, cac bat on twang lai tang tang thi Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang & BM Kim Phucmg, Tap chi Phat tri'en Kinh te, 28(9), 04-24 13 cong ty cang có dOng co tri chinh sach co tirc thAp de lam tam dem cho nhang rui ro dO Nhieu nghien ciru cung cap bang chimg ve rnifai quan he nguac chieu girra rui ro va chinh sach co tirc, cu the: Cac ding ty cang truang thi rui ro cangthap va c8 nhieu dOng ca de chi tra c8 tuc han Grullon Nth cong su (2002) fang WO lAp luAn xem xet cac thong bao tang va giam cO tirc cfaa cac cong ty niem yet tren NYSE va AMEX giai doan 1982-1993 Grullon va cong su (2002) nhAn thAy t7 cac cong ty c6 su gia tang ve co tire thi rui ro he thOng cling giam xutang Ngoai ra, Kulchania (2013) tim thy ca rui ro he tliOng Ian rah ro dac thia deu CO tac Ong tieu clic len chinh sach chi tra co tirc cua cong ty Do dO, tac dOng cua rui ro len chinh sach co tirc se duce kiem dinh nghien ciru thong qua gia thuyet sau: H7:Mcii quan he giira quyjt dinh chi tra co t&c va rid ro la ngtroc Li va Lie (2006) tim thy mirc dO nim gift tin co tac dOng cling chieu len guy& dinh chi tra co tirc Cac nghien ciru khae nhu: de Cesari va Huang—Meier (2015), Bradford va cong su (2013) cling dua cac Vet qua tuang tu Vi vAy, nghien ciru nay, tac gia dua them nhan to vao m8 hinh de kiem dinh tad &Ong cila no len guy& dinh chi tra CO tire dm cong ty Gia thuyet tiep theo &lac tac gia de xudt se la: H8:Moi quan he gicra quye't dinh chi tra co tirc va mire newt gift- tie'n cfia cong ty la cling chiu Viet Nam, quy mo cong ty, kha nang sinh lgi, ca hOi tang truang, don by tai chinh, mire dO nAm gift tien va rui ro he thOng da darac xem xet cac nghien ciru ye cac yeu to anh huang den chinh sach co tirc cua cong ty Tuy nhien, cac ket qua nghien ciru van chara dat duore skr d'Ong thuan Chang han, nghien ciru cala Vo Xuan Vinh (2013, 2015) va To Thi Thanh Trak (2017), co hOi dau to có tac dOng ngargc chieu den chinh sach co tire Tran Thi Hai 14/ va Do Thi Bay (2015), Tran Thi Tun Anh (2016), Nguyen KhAc QuOc Bao va Nguyen Thi Thily Linh (2016) lai cho rang tac dOng la ding chieu Ben canh do, nhang nghien ciru chua xet den mot s8 }Tau to khac có kha nang tac dOng den guy& dinh chi tra co tire dm cong ty, bao Rui ro dac thia, tinh khoan cUa co phieu va vong i cong ty Do do, tac gia guy& dinh dua them cac y611 to tren vao mo hinh phan tich cho nghien ciru 14 Nguyen Thi Noe Trang & BM Kim Phuung, Tap chi Phat trien Kinh fe, 28(9), 04-24 Mr lieu va plurang phOp nghien ciru 3.1 Dir lieu nghien ciru Mau &rot sir dung nghien ciru bao g6m 474 cong ty niern ygt tren Sa Giao dich Chung khoan TP.HCM va Sac Giao dich Chung khoan Ha N8i giai doan 20082015 Dili ligu can thu thap bao g6m cac chi tieu teen bang can d6i kg town, cu thg g6m: T6ng tai san, tong von chu so' hiru, nq dai han, tin va cac khoan Wang &rang tign, lai nhuan sau thug' chua phan ph6i, chi phi lai vay, Igi nhuan sau thug thu nhap doanh nghigp Ngoai ra, can phai thu thap them cac dir lieu tai chinh khac bao g6m: Co tut tin mat ten m6i c6 phan, gia &mg cira hang cua c6 phigu, VN-Index hang ngay, s6 luvng c6 phan dang ltru hanh va s8 lugng c6 phan giao dich hang Du lieu duvc Idy tir Datastream Cac ngan hang va cac to chat tai chinh bi loai khoi phan tich c6 cau trac tai chinh, phuung phap town va quan tri doanh nghigp dac bigt Mau bao g6m ca cac cong ty c6 tra c6 tuc fan khong tra c6 tirc va khong bao g6m cac cong ty bi hi:1y niem ygt Ngoai ra, nhirng quan sat di bigt, khong CO tinh dai din cho rnau nghien cuu bi loai 116 Do do, mau nghign ciru cu6i cling g6m 2.942 quan sat cong ty theo nam 3.2 Phtrang pith!, nghien caw HAu hgt cac nghien ciru da duvc thirc hign u Vigt Nam sir dung dirt ligu bang vai mo hinh h6i quy Op (Pooled), tac Ong c6 dinh (FEM) va tac thing niau nhign (REM), d6, bin phu thu6c la bin lien tuc nhu: Ti lg c6 tiro tin mat tren doanh thu, ti le c6 tirc tin mat teen lgi nhuan rung hoac ti suat c6 tire B8n canh d6, nghien ciru gan day nil& ciia T6 Thi Thanh Truc (2017) sir dung me hinh logit voi bin phu thu8c nhi phan dg xem xet cac ygu to anh twang d'gn xac suat chi tra co tire dm ding ty Mang tir TO Thi Thanh True (2017), nghien ciru nay, tic gia cling sir dung mo hinh logit dg phan tich quygt dinh chi tra co tirc Theo do, mo hinh logit dugc sir dung de nghien ciru vai tr6 cua quy mo cong ty, kha nang sinh lqi, ca h8i tang trugng, don bay tai chinh, mire d8 Warn giu tign, tinh thank ,khoan elm c6 phigu, yang cong ty va rui ro vigc giai thich kha Wang chi tra c8 tirc elm cong ty Cu the, hoi quy logit c6 dang sau: yit = logit(130 +131R0Ait + 132DAAit + 133MBit + r34SIZEi t + I35LTDAit + f36CASHAit + 137TORit + 08RETAit + I39SYSit + piamoo + Trong do: Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang & Bdi Kim Phuang, Tap chi Phat trien Kinh th, 28(9), 04-24 15 Bien phu thuOc yit la bien nhi phan, nhdn gia tri neu ding ty i c6 tra co tirc nam t va nhdn gia tri neu ding ty i khong tra c6 tirc nam t Ngoai ra, tac gia se tiep can van de bang phucmg phap Fama va MacBeth (1973), day cling la mot cach de xir li dir lieu bang ngoai cac cach tiep can da neu a tren Du lieu bang dugc sir dung kha ph6 bien cac nghien elm ve dinh gia tai san va ti sudt sinh lgi cua danh muc dau tu Tuy nhi8n, cac mo hinh dtt lieu bang, phan du di the bi tucrng quan gifra cac ding ty dan den cac tro.c lugng he so va sai s6 chudn c6 the bi chech Phuarig phap Fama va MacBeth (1973) dugc sir dung uerc Kiang cac he so va sai s6 chuan phan du bi tuang quan giva cac quan sat dia cac ding ty khac ding mot nam a Trong cac Wen dOc lap, kha nang sinh Igi thuemg dugc dai di8n bang ti s6 ROA hoac ROE Tuy nhien, ket qua dat dugc tuang tu sir dung ROE thay vi ROA, do, tac gia chi dua ROA vao mo hinh Ben canh do, cac nghien ciru truerc, tot d6 tang truang doanh thu, t6c d6 tang truang tong tai san hoac ti so gia tri thi truerng teen gia tri s6 sach thuong doge sir dung lam dai dien cho co hOi dau tu Theo Fama va French (2001), t6c dO tang truerng tong tai san luerng cac ca hOi dau tu hien tai va ti s6 gia tri thi trixong tren gia tri s6 sach luting cac ca hOi dau to twang lai Vi \Tay, ca hai Wen deu dugc dua vao mo hinh de xem xet anh hugng cua ca hOi &Li tu den chinh sach c6 tirc dm ding ty MOt bien dac tinh cong ty ca ban khac la quy mo Quy mo cong ty thuemg dugc bang gia tri so sach ho4c gia tri thi truOng cua tong tai san Ngoai ra, Fama va French (2001) de xudt mot cach quy mo ding ty khac, la bach phan vi von 1- ia thi truemg cua ding ty, cach luong có the trung hoa bdt ki mot tac Ong nao dm tang twang quy mo mot cong ty dien hinh qua thoi gian Do do, tac gia cling sir dung this&c de dai dien cho quy mo cong ty Ngoai ra, twang tir phat hien cda Kuo va Ong su (2013), ti s6 vong quay cling dirge sir dung de dai dien cho tinh khoan cua c6 phieu mo hinh phan tich Ben canh do, nghien ciru cua Vo Xuan Vinh (2013), Tran Thi Hai I* va D'6" Thi Bay (2015) va Tran Thi Tun Anh (2016) xem xet tac &Ong cda rui ro he th6ng den chinh sach c6 tirc cua ding ty dugc bang he s6 beta dia co phieu Tuy nhien, cac nghien ciru chua xet den anh huerng cua rui ro dac thii Do do, ngoai nhang yeu to tren, tac gia se dua ca rui ro he thong va rui ro dac thii (theo dinh nghia cua Hoberg & Prabhala (2009) vao mo hinh Ngoai ra, dua theo nhang nghien ciru truerc, tac gia phan tich tac dOng cua don Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang & BM Kim Phuung, Tap chi Phat triL Kinh te, 28(9), 04-24 16 by tai chinh, vong deli ding ty va mirc di) nam gift tin len guy& dinh chi tra co tirc Tom lai, cac bin dOc lap mei hinh chrgc dinh nghia nInr Bang Bang Dinh nghia cac bin ducc sir dung mo hinh Ki hieu Bien ROA;, Kha nang sinh Igi MBit Daft ki Lai nhuan rang + Chi phi lai vay TOng tai san binh quan — Gia tri thi trtrang ciia tong tai sane Gia tri so sach cita tong tail san — Ti le thay d6i tong tai san cria cong ty qua hai nam lien tiep Co hOi tang truing DAAit SIZEit Dinh nghia vong Quy m6 cong Bach phan vi von h6a thi trtrang cda cong ty tY LTDAit Dan bay tai chinh Ng clai han TOng tai san CAShAit Mtic d6 nam gift tien Tien va cac khoan twang dung tien Tong tai san TORit Tinh khoan dm CO phieu RETAit \Tong dai cong ty — KhOi Mang co phan giao Bich binh quan KhOi hromg co ph5n dang hru har) binh quail nhuan gift lai TOng tai san Rui ro he thong — DO Lech chuan ctia gia tri &roc du bao SYSi, tir h6i quy ma hinh thi truing Rui ro Rui ro dac this — De Lech chuan cua phan du tit hei quy ma hinh thi twang Gia tri thi truing cOa tong tai san = Gia tri so sach cua tong no + Gia tri thi attain ctia von chil sa hat' Trong do, Gia tri thi trudng cda von chi) sa haft = Gia co phieu vac) giao dich cuOi ding nam x SO Itrang co OIL) dang loft hanh Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang & Bui Kim Phuung, Tap chi Phat tri'en Kinh th, 28(9), 04-24 17 Ket qui nghien cum vi thin lu'in Bang trinh bay gia tri trung binh, trung vi va dO Lech chuan cita cac bien duck sir dung mo hinh Bang trinh bay tucmg quan giira cac Hen dOc lap Ket qua Bang cho thy tucmg quan cap gift tat ca cac bien dOc lap khong cao He s6 tuong quan cao nit& la giira rui ro he thOng (SYS) vari rui ro d*ac thu (IDIO) la 0,680, va gitra \tong deri cong ty (RETA) viii kha rang sinh Igi (ROA) la 0,668 Do do, hien tugng da cong tuyen có the khong xay mo hinh Bing ThOng ke mo to cac Hen Bien S6 quan sat Gia tri trung binh Trung vi Do kch chuan ROA 2.942 8,471 7,482 7,935 DAA 2.942 7,379 6,999 20,395 MB 2.942 1,216 0,964 1,145 SIZE 2.942 50 50 28,834 LTDA 2.942 9,143 2,917 13,439 CASHA 2.942 9,046 5,242 10,550 TOR 2.942 0,325 0,136 0,493 RETA 2.942 5,325 4,320 10,386 SYS 2.942 0,299 0,262 0,160 IDIO 2.942 0,013 0,012 0,005 18 Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang & Bui Kim Phuong, Tap chi Phat tritn Kinh te, 28(9), 04-24 Bing Ma tr4n ttrang quan giita cac bian dOc lap ROA DAA MB SIZE LTDA CASHA TOR RETA DAA 0,315 MB 0,416 0,136 SIZE 0,156 0,208 0,214 LTDA -0,128 0,121 -0,048 0,347 CASHA 0,273 0,017 0,109 -0,061 -0,218 TOR -0,138 0,028 -0,092 -0,037 -0,032 -0,118 RETA 0,668 0,250 0,299 0,142 -0,129 0,301 -0,169 SYS -0,215 -0,131 -0,151 -0,244 -0,062 -0,021 0,004 -0,209 IDIO -0,166 -0,03 I -0,068 -0,351 -0,012 -0,115 0,144 -0,239 SYS 0,680 Bang trinh bay kat qua hai quy -logit Cac hE s6 dtrac bao cap la cac gia tri trung binh chugi theyi gian theo Oman phap Fama va MacBeth (1973) dm cac hE so logit cheo hang nam Cac so dau ngo4c don la gia tri thOng ke t turang frng M8 hinh (1) bao gom cac bin d'ac tfnh cong ty co ban nhtr quy mo cong ty, kha nang sinh lai va co hOi tang trtrang Mo hinh (2), (3), (4), (5) va (6) Fan ltrat dtra them cac bin dai din cho don by tai chinh, mfrc dO Kam gift tian, tinh khoan cua co phiau, yang dai cong ty va rui ro KEt qua nghian cfru cho thy phap lon cac Nan m6 hinh coy nghia thong ke va mang dung dAti ki Ong Trong do, ROA coy nghia thOng ke a mix 1% tat ca cac m8 hinh K6t qua Wang dOng vai phat hiEn cua To Thi Thanh Truc (2017), Benavides va cong su (2016), TrAn Thi Tun Anh (2016), de Cesari va Huang-Meier (2015), Vo Xuan Vinh (2015), Banyi va Kahle (2014) Ben canh dO, mot dai din cho ca hOi dau to cua cong ty bin MB, coy nghia thong ke ca mo hinh (2), (3), (4), (5) va (6) Nhu vay, kat qua ung hO de xuAt cua Fama va French (2001) ciing cho rang cac cong ty c6 kha nang sinh lai tot hon veri co hOi d'A.0 to it hon có nhiau kha nang chi tra co tfrc hon Tuy nhion, you to quy mo lai khong c6 tac dOng den chinh sach co tat dm cong ty.3 Khi lay gia tri thi trutmg lam dai dii n cho quy and Ong ty, yeu to van ichong c6 tac dOng den guyet dinh chi tra c6 tirc Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang & BM Kim Phuang, Tap chi Phat tri6n Kinh te, 28(9), 04-24 19 Bang Phan tich 116i quy logit ve quy6t dinh chi tra co tirc cua cong ty ROA DAA MB SIZE (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 0,021*** 0,020*** 0,018*** 0,017*** 0,012*** 0,011*** (5,041) (4,927) (4,766) (4,704) (3,673) (3,527) 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 (-0,845) (-0,648) (-0,617) (-0,310) (-0,680) (-0,868) -0,024 -0,026* -0,035** -0,041*** -0,046*** -0,045** (-1,784) (-1,917) (-2,671) (-3,534) (-3,715) (-3,430) 0,000 0,000 0,001 0,001 0,000 0,001 (0,003) (0,955) (1,241) (0,960) (0,674) (1,002) -0,002*** -0,002** -0,002** -0,002** -0,002** (-3,707) (-3,052) (-3,254) (-2,909) (-2,924) 0,005*** 0,006*" 0,005*** 0,004*** (6,589) (6,005) (5,237) (4,501) -0,125*** -0,118*** -0,116*** (-6,117) (-6,161) (-6,025) 0,008*** 0,008*** (6,100) (6,448) LTDA CASHA TOR RETA SYS -1,279 (-0,874) IDIO -0,342 (-0,013) Hang so 0,567*** 0,578*** 0,542*** 0,604*** 0,627*** 0,763*** (10,740) (11,047) (10,058) (11,125) (11,991) (12,029) Ghi chit: *,**,*** Ian loot ttrcmg irng vdi cac mat 5inglila thong Ice 10%, 5%, 1% MO hinh (2), (3), (4), (5) va (6) xem xet them tie dOng dm don by tai chinh len kha nang chi tra co tirc cua cong ty ngoai cac dac tinh cong ty co ban teen Ke't qua cho thy 20 Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang & BM Kim Phucrng, Tap chi Phat trien Kinh te, 28(9), 04-24 Wen dai dien dm don by tai chinh coy nghia thOng ke ca 5,mo hinh Dieu c6 nghia la cac cong ty dung no cang nhieu thi xac suat chi tra co tirc cang thap, thong nit& vai nghien ciru cua Tran Thi Tun Anh (2016), Vo Xuan Vinh (2013), Bradford va Ong six (2013), Kuo va cong su (2013) va Kulchania (2013) BEn canh do, mat dO Warn giix tien c6 anh huemg dang ke den chinh sach co tirc cua cong ty Cu the, mOi quan he gitra yeu to vai quyat dinh chi tra co tirc la cling chieu va coy nghia thOng ke a mirc 1%, nghia la cac cling ty c6 mire dO nam giu tien cang cao thi xac suat chi tra co tirc cang cao Ket qua ding duvc tim thy nghien ciru dm To Thi Thanh Truc (2017), Vo Xuan Vinh (2015), Banyi va Kahle (2014) va Bradford va cong su (2013) Ngoai ra, ket qua hOi quy cho thy he so cua ti so vong quay la am va coy nghia mix 1% Nhu vdy, tinh khoan cua co phieu co twang quan nguvc chieu Arai xac swat chi tra co tirc Ket qua ling hOcla xudt cua Banerjee va cong su (2007) cling cho ring a nhimg cong ty ma co phieu c6 tinh khoan thdp thi xac suat chi tra co tire cao va ngtrac lai MO hinh (5) va (6) cho thy Ong dai cong ty c6 tac dOng cung chieu len chinh sach chi tra co tirc cua cong ty Ket qua thOng nhdt vai nghien elm cua Banyi va Kahle (2014), Fairchild va cong su (2014), Manos va cong su (2012) Theo do, cac cong ty da chuyen sang giai doan truerng c6 nhieu kha nang chi tra co tire han so vai cac cong ty a nhang giai doan dau cua yang dai MO hinh (6) xem xet them vai tro cua cac bien rui ro viec giai thich chinh sach co tirc cua cong ty Ket qua cho thay ca rui ro he thOng lan rui ro ddc thin deu mang dAu am, dung nhu ki vong, nhien, cac he so lai khong coy nghia thong ke Do d6, yeu to rui ro khong c6 anh huerng gi den xac suat chi tra co tirc cua cong ty T6m lai, thOng nhAt vai cac nghien cite truck, xac suat chi tra co tirc cua cong ty tang len cling vai kha Wang sinh Igi, mire dO flan' gift tien va vong dai cong ty Nguvc lai, xac suat chi tra co tire c6 mOi quan he nguac chieu vai cac ca hOi tang truang, don by tai chinh va tinh khoan cua c6 phieu Trong d6, hai yeu to quy mo cong ty va rui ro khong c6 tac dOng den guy& dinh chi tra co tire cua cong ty Ngoai ra, dug teen ket qua uerc luting mo hinh (6), tac dOng logit bien trung binh dirge tinh toan de xem xet y nghia kinh to cua mot so Wen giai thich Kat qua cho thy ROA va RETA tang 1% thi xac suat chi tra co tirc cua cong ty ding tang 1% Twang tu, mire dO Warn gift tien tang 1% thi xac suat chi tra co tire cua cong ty tang 0,5% Nguy& Thi Ngoc Trang & BM Kim Phuang, Tap chi Phat trien Kinh re, 28(9), 04-24 21 Ngtro.c lai, TOR tang 1% thi xac sudt chi tra c6 tire dia cong ty lai giam 11% Bang Tac dOng logit bien trung binh cua cac Nen [Khoang tin cay 95%] dy/dx Sai so chuan z P>z ROA 0,010 0,003 3,330 0,001 0,004 0,016 CASHA 0,005 0,002 2,810 0,005 0,002 0,008 TOR —0,111 0,043 —2,580 0,010 —0,195 —0,027 RETA 0,010 0,002 4,910 0,000 0,006 0,013 Ket 1u4n NIA goi y chinh sach Nghien ciru nhAm xac dinh cac yeu to quan anh huong den chinh sach c6 tat cua cac cong ty phi tai chinh niem yet tren Thi truing Chirng khoan Viet Nam giai clop 2008-2015 Ket qua thuc nghiem cho thy kha nang sinh lgi, mire dO nam gift tien va \Tong dai cong ty c6 tic dOng tich cue len quyet dinh chi tra c6 tire Ngtrac 14i, co' hOi tang truang, don by tai chinh va tinh khoan cua c6 phieu c6 tic dOng tieu cgc len chinh sach chi tra c6 tire ctia cong ty Trong do, quy mo cong ty va riti ro lai khong c6 anh huang den chinh sach c6 tire dm cong ty Tai Viet Nam, c6 sir bdt d6i xirng thOng tin gift nha dAu to va nhiing ngtrai not 1)0 cong ty nen chinh sach c6 tire la mot nhang ngu6n thong tin quan anh huang den guy& dinh cita cac nha dAu tu Nghien ciru giup cho nha dAu to hieu ro han ve chinh sach c6 tirc cita cac cong ty Tir do, ho c6 the du bao chinh xac han ve chinh sach chi tra c6 tire va dtra quyet dinh cua mInh Cu the, t7 mot cong ty c6 kha nang sinh lai, mirc dO nAm gift tien va ti 1e Igi nhudn gift lai tren tong tai san cao, ding nhu c6 it ca hOi dAu tu., mirc dO sir dung ng va tinh khoan cita c6 phiau thdp, chinh sach c6 tire doge du bd.° se on dinh han va mot tin hiO clang tin city han so Arai nhang cong ty ichong c6 cac d:ac di&n 22 Nguyen Thi Nguc Trang & BM Kim Phuong, Top chi Phat trier' Kinh te, 28(9), 04-24 TM lieu tham Ichao Adaoglu, C (2000) Instability in the dividend policy of the Istanbul stock exchange (ISE) corporations: Evidence from an emerging market Emerging Markets Review, 1(3), 252-270 Agrawal, A., & Jayaraman, N (1994) The dividend policies of all-equity firms: A direct test of the free cash flow theory Managerial and Decision Economics, /5(2), 139-148 Alli, K L., Khan, A Q., & Ramirez, G G (1993) Determinants of corporate dividend policy: A factorial analysis The Financial Review, 28(4), 523-547 Amidu, M., & Abor, J (2006) Determinants of dividend payout ratios in Ghana The Journal of Risk Finance, 7(2), 136-145 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Journal of Banking and Finance, 37(9), 3499-3514 La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R (2000) Investor protection and corporate governance Journal of Financial Economics, 58(1-2), 3-27 Li, W., & Lie, E (2006) Dividend changes and catering incentives Journal of Financial Economics, 80(2), 293-308 Lloyd, W P., Jahera, J S., & Page, D E (1985) Agency costs and dividend payout ratios Quarterly Journal of Business and Economics, 24(3), 19-29 Manos, R., Murinde, V., & Green, C J (2012) Dividend policy and business groups: Evidence from Indian firms International Review of Economics and Finance, 21(1), 42-56 Miller, M H., & Modigliani, F (1961) Dividend policy, growth, and the valuation of shares The Journal of Business, 34(4), 411-433 Miller, M H., & Rock, K (1985) Dividend policy under asymmetric information The Journal of Finance, 40(4), 1031-1051 Mitton, T (2004) Corporate governance and dividend policy in emerging markets Emerging Markets Review, 5(4), 409-426 Pruitt, S W., & Gitman, L J (1991) The interactions between the investment, financing, and dividend decisions of Major U.S firms The Financial Review, 26(3), 409-430 Pettit, It R (1977) Taxes, transactions costs and the clientele effect of dividends Journal of Financial Economics, 5(3), 419-436 Smith, C W., & Watts, R L (1992) The investment opportunity set and corporate financing, dividend, and compensation policies Journal of Financial Economics, 32(3), 263-292 Nguyen Khac QuOc Bao, & Nguygn Thi TM)/ Linh (2016) , Nhfmg nhan to dOng ddn vandd lam tron co tac cda ck doanh nghidp Vidt Nam Tap chi Phat trien kink te, 27(4), 63-80 'Fran Thi Than Anh (2016) Cac ydu to tac dOng den chinh sach co tirc city doanh nghidp Vidt Nam: Tip can bang hoi quy phan vi Tap chi Phat trier Kinh te, 27(2), 108-127 Tran Thi Hai Ly, & Do Thi Bay (2015) Cu trik sa him va chinh sach co tirc can ck doanh nghiOp nidm y6t: Bang ching tai Vidt Nam Tap chi Phat trien va Hai nhap, 23(33), 72-78 To Thi Thanh Trk (2017) Tinh hinh chi tra co tirc tidn mat can ck cong ty niem ydt ten HOSE Tap chi Cong nghe Ngan hang, 134, 58-71 VO Xuan Vinh (2013) Cac yeu to tac dOng ddn chinh sach c6 tirc bang tin mat Tap chi Kinh to va Phat trien, 19(197),36-43 VO Xuan Vinh (2015) Co cAu sa hfru va c6' tirc tren thi trading chthig khoan Vidt Nam Tap chi Kinh to va Phat trier, 2/(211), 34-44  ... Cac quyet dinh cua nha quan tri tai chinh cong ty bao gem: Quyet dinh du to va quyet dinh tai trg Quyet dinh dau tu lien quan den viec xac dinh lo4i tai san ma cong ty muen nam giir Trong do, quyet... dau tu Chinh sach ce tut xac dinh quy mo va each thirc phan phi lgi nhuan cho ce (long theo thoi gian 118i ding quan tri se quyet dinh chinh sach co tirc cua cong ty a Quyet dinh chinh sach chi. .. dinh chi tra CO tire dm cong ty Gia thuyet tiep theo &lac tac gia de xudt se la: H8:Moi quan he gicra quye't dinh chi tra co tirc va mire newt gift- tie'n cfia cong ty la cling chiu Viet Nam, quy