Subjects and scope of the study * Research subjects - The contents of the trade agreements that Vietnam participates with relating to rice export; the reality of Vietnam's rice export
Trang 1INTRODUCTION
1 The reason of selecting the thesis topic
With the situation of rice in world food structure, rice production and export
have significance for ensuring rice supply - demand stability in all conditions They
contribute to the task of global food security, and give turnover to the nations
However, in the context of deep and wide international economic integration,
which main manifestations are bilateral, regional and multilateral trade relations
Trade agreements are legal basis making rice export meet the specific content of
origin, characteristics, quality, safe and sanitary products and environment etc
Additionally, Vietnam’s rice to export are a symbol of gradually “lower-grade” than
other agricultural exports; actuality of climate change requires farmers have
restructured agriculture by reducing transplantation rice; the “fastidious” markets such
as Japan, United State, Europe ect are tending to “denigrate” Vietnam’s rice but they
are enthusiatic to buy Vietnamese fruit and vegetables at good price
However, world rice demand has always been increasing, food security is still
urgent issue for many countries in the world Vietnam’s rice to export is in context of
countinuous fluctuation of domestic and foreign factors, in which trade agreements
like “catalyst” requires rice sector to carefully consider in the orientation of rice export
is suitable to international practices in the following time Based on these comments
and in accord with specialistic economic history, PhD has worked on the thesis as
toptic “Impacts of Trade Agreements on Vietnam’s rice export”
2 Research objectives of the thesis
2.1 General objectives
The thesis proposes new comprehention of Vietname’s rice export to adapt to
impacts of trade agreements and threats in new international economic integration that
are still relevant to inherent role of rice sector
2.2 Specific objectives
The first, to systematise some theoretical issues on impacts of trade agreements
on rice export; summarize the experience of rice export of several countries under
impacts of trade agreements, thence drawing lessons for Vietnam
The second, overview of some trade agreements impacting on Vietnam’s rice export
The third, analysis of the real situation of Vietnam’s rice export under impacts of
trade agreements that Vietnam is a member
The forth, to propose solutions and petitions to promote rice export in the
direction of good adaptation to impacts of trade agreements
3 Subjects and scope of the study
* Research subjects
- The contents of the trade agreements that Vietnam participates with relating
to rice export; the reality of Vietnam's rice export to member and non-members
countries with Vietnam in trade agreements; impacts of trade agreements that Vietnam
has participated on Vietnam's rice export
* Research scope
Scope of content: The thesis examines the content and impacts of trade agreements affecting on Vietnam's rice export, including: AFTA; 3 Bilateral trade agreements; 5 Mixed Trade Agreements; and trade agreements have not yet validated, the trade agreement negotiated without contract and the agreements are under negotiation
* Study area: The thesis focuses on the Vietnam’s rice export market with a large proportion
* Time range:
- The thesis generalizes the development of the rice sector (production and export) from the 80s of the 20th century until 2017, assesses the status of impacts of trade agreements on Vietnam's rice export with the timelines of trade agreements in validity from 2000 to 2015 (the period since the entry into force of the Vietnam-US Bilateral Trade Agreement, opening the period of continuous Vietnamese accession entering into regional and world agreements) It has assessed the potential impact of trade agreements that are not valid or in negotiation between 2000 and 2016, updated information on rice export of the world in 2016 - 2017
- Solutions of the thesis on Vietnam's rice export under impacts of trade agreements towards 2030
4 Approach and Methodology
4.1 Approach
Approach in the perspective of economic history and from the theory to the reality, considering changes to export rice under the impact of the trade agreements that Vietnam has signed in the temporal order
4.2 Methodology
- Qualitative research Methodology: combining historical methods, logical methods, analytical methods based on statistical results, collating and comparing data and economic phenomena in rice export to clarify the change in rice export, both quantity and quality from time to time of the roadmap for the implementation of trade agreements
- Experimental research Methodology: Applying the structural gravity model in international trade to study the events that occurred after the implementation of the trade agreement (post-period analysis)
5 New contributions and limitations of the thesis
5.1 New contributions of the thesis
* The thesis has theoretical contributions:
- The thesis comprehensively analyzes the impact of bilateral, regional and mixed trade agreements on Vietnam’s rice export
- The thesis deals with impacts of trade agreements on rice export in order to
concretize each factor but not only economic or welfare aspects
Trang 2* The thesis has practical significance.:
- The thesis studied the topical issue because rice has been the main export
products of Vietnam for a long time However, when Vietnam participates in trade
agreements, rice export has been associated with many opportunities and new threats
Hence, the rice needs to consistent with the trend of integration and the content of trade
agreements
- The thesis examines impacts of trade agreements for identifying suggestion
to motivate rice export towards sustainable development, thus motivating the
development of rural agriculture
* The thesis contributes research methodology to analyze impacts of trade
agreements on rice export in Vietnam through the combination of qualitative analysis
and quantitative models (structural gravity model)
5.2 The limitations of the thesis
Some factors that impact on rice export such as climate change, scale and price of
rice export of competitors, unexpected and difficult to anticipate factors have not been
put into the experimental model However, the thesis uses qualitative analysis of these
factors not yet inserted in the model to make more comprehensive contributions
6 Structure of the thesis
Chapter 1: Overview of research on impacts of trade agreements on Vietnam’s
rice export;
Chapter 2: Theoretical fundament and international experience on adaptation
to impacts of trade agreements on rice export;
Chapter 3: Analyzing the current situation of impacts of trade agreements on
Vietnam’s rice export;
Chapter 4: Some solutions to enhance the adaptability of Vietnam’s rice
export to impacts of the trade agreements by 2030
CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW OF RESEARCH ON IMPACTS OF TRADE
AGREEMENTS ON VIETNAM’S RICE EXPORT
1.1 Research on impacts of trade agreements on rice export in the process
of international economic integration
1.1.1 Research on the benefits of exports and factors affecting exports
Trade Theories in research by Do Duc Binh and Ngo Thi Tuyet Mai (2013) has
indicated the mechanism and the reason that trade generates benefits for nations
Research on factors influencing supply (production capacity), export demand
(purchasing power) and factors that attract / hinder exports: Carrere (2006), Inmaculada
and Felicitas (2003) , Sandberg (2004), Do Tri Thai (2006), Tu Thuy Anh and Dao
Nguyen Thang (2008), Dao Ngoc Tien (2009), Bikker (2009), in which trade agreements
are one of the influencing factors to export, not only directly but also indirectly through
policies towards export
1.1.2 Research on impacts of trade agreements on export
1.1.2.1 Overview of theoretical research on impacts of trade agreements on countries in the world
- Static impacts include "trade creation" and "trade diversion" (Viner, 1950; Krugman, 1993; Bhagwati and Panagariya, 1996; Krueger, 1999; Fukao et al., 2002)-
- Dynamic impacts have long-term effects on welfare, economic restructuring, industry structural change (Hertel et al., 2001; Itakura and Lee, 2012; Lee and Itakura , 2014; Cheong, 2013)
1.1.2.2 Overview of experimental method in research on impacts of trade agreements
- Research use of gravity model: Tinbergen (1962), Anderson and Wincoop (2003), Magee (2008), Hapsari and Mangunsong (2006), Ruzita et al (2009); Yin (2010), Do Ba Khai (2014), Okabe (2015), Vu Thanh Huong (2016), consistent with post-period assessment (the impacts have occurred)
- Research use the global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model: Todsadee et al (2012), Petri et al (2012), Petri and Plummer (2016), Lee and Itakura (2015), Cassing et al ), Nguyen Duc Thanh et al (2015)
- Research use the patial equilibrium: Cassing và cộng sự (2010), Fukao và cộng sự (2002), Datta và Kouliavtsev (2005), Burfisher và cộng sự (2014), Nguyễn Đức Thành và cộng sự (2015)
1.1.3 Research on rice export and impacts of trade agreements on rice export
- For rice export, research on overseas rice export: Boriss (2006), Poramacom (2014),
Ramakrishna and Degaonkar (2016), Memon (2017), Adhikari et al (2016); research on rice export in Vietnam: Nguyen Trung Van (1998), Nguyen Dinh Long (1999), Dinh Thien Duc (2003), Le Minh Nghia (2004), Ho Cao Viet (2010), Dinh Van Thanh, Dinh Vu Van Hung (2013), Le Xuan Tao (2015)
- For impacts of trade agreements on rice export, mostly qualitative research on
impacts of trade agreements on the export of goods in general and agricultural products in particular, including rice as an example (Cassing et al., 2010; Dinh Van Thanh, 2010; Pham Thai Quoc, 2013; Tran Phu Phuong, 2013; Bui Thanh Nam, 2016; www.trungtamwto.vn/fta) or research on rice export which refers to trade agreements
as a note in the development of the industry (Dawe, 2010; Anon., 2015; Broadbent et
al 2015; Anon., 2016; Ramakrishna and Degaonkar, 2016)
1.2 Research space
Firstly, most research only focus on one or more specific agreements Few research assessed aggregately the impact of bilateral, regional and multilateral trade
agreements to export of Vietnam
Secondly, research assessed mainly impacts of trade agreements on countries,
including Vietnam, on the economic, welfare and national trade flows Few research assessed the impact of a trade agreement on a specific industry
Thirdly, published research is lack of aggregate assessment as well as the
update on new fluctuations in rice export (rice supply, rice demand in the international market, the impact of climate .) and the new export criteria accompanying as
Trang 3Fourthly, there are not many research in Vietnam that apply quantitative
methods to assess the past impact of trade agreements on specific rice commodity
export, from which to draw qualitative comments and practical solutions
CHAPTER2: THEORETICAL FUNDAMENT AND INTERNATIONAL
EXPERIENCE ON ADAPTATION TO IMPACTS OF TRADE AGREEMENTS
ON RICE EXPORT 2.1 Theoretical fundament for impacts of trade agreements on rice export
2.1.1 Argument about trade agreements
2.1.1.1 The concept of trade agreements
a Traditional concept: A trade agreement is an international treaty aimed at
eliminating trade barriers, facilitating closer trade between the signatory countries, thereby
promoting economic integration between member countries
b Modern concept: not only be understood in the narrow scope of "shallow"
economic cooperation as traditionally understood, but also the agreement of the
"deep" economic integration between two or more groups of nations with broader and
more comprehensive commitments than trade
2.1.1.2 Classification of trade agreements
- Bilateral trade agreement: two member countries
- Regional trade agreement: participation of three or more member countries
which have close geographical location
- Mixed Trade Agreement is a trade agreement between an international
economic link and a country, a number of countries or some other international
economic link, which is a special kind of bilateral trade agreement
- Multilateral Trade Agreement is a trade agreement that includes many
signatory countries in which the WTO is typical
2.1.1.3 Content of the trade agreements
- Content of tariff reduction
- Content of quotas
- Content of Technical Barriers to Trade (TBTs) and Sanitary and Phytosanitary
measures (SPSs)
- Content of Safeguard measures, Anti-dumping measures, anti-subsidy
- Other diverse content: rules of origin; Trade in Services; Investment; dispute
settlement mechanism; Government procurement, competition policy, intellectual
property, sustainable development
2.1.1.4 Impacts of trade agreements on exports
As discussed in the study overview, the impact of a trade agreement is divided
into two tendencies that static and dynamic impact
2.1.2 Rice export and impacts of trade agreements on rice export
Rice is an agricultural product and has characteristics of agricultural production: (i) Affected by natural conditions such as land, climate, weather, .; (ii) Seasonal; (iii) Rice quality will directly affect the health of consumers; (iv) The post-harvest processing and preservation is very important; (v) Rice has a variety of species, rice grain shape, taste, nutritional content
2.1.2.2 Rice export and impacts of trade agreements on rice export
a Some traditional and modern trade theories show that international trade has
always benefited the participating countries, thereby playing an important role in the
world economy
b The concept, form and role of rice export
* Concept of export, rice export
Export is the exchange of goods and services of a country with the rest of the world in order to benefit the nations This concept is used to specifically define export items in general and rice in particular
* Forms of rice export: Direct rice export; entrusted rice export; Export rice
under the protocol between the two Governments
* The role of rice export
In addition to its role in the export of goods, rice export also play a role in the export of agricultural products: to motivate the development of sector strategies in line with their ability and conditions to combine of national and global food security and long-term protection of natural resources, contribute to maintaining a favorable national and international environment for stable socio-economic development
c Factors impact on rice export:
Trang 4Figure 2.1 Diagram of factors impacting on Vietnam's rice export
Source: Author's summary
d Impacts of trade agreements on rice export
The Analysic Framework about the factors that affect the magnitude of the
exporting country) Rice importer from Vietnam
The distance between two countries
Comparative
advantage
Economic
scale
Population
Area of rice
cultivation
Quality
of rice
Price of rice export
Export management policies
Economic scale
Population
Area of rice cultivation
Factors of
Supply
Factors of Demand
Inflation
International economic
relationship (trade aggreements)
Openness
of the economy
Science and
technology
Tariff and non-tariff policies
Exchange rate policy
Geographic distance
Economic distance
Attractive / Obstructive factors
Habits, tastes
Table 2.2: Factors affecting the potential impact of a Trade Agreement
Group I - Nature
of the trade agreement
1 Type of agreement
2 The scope and extent of integration in the agreement
3 Amount and scale of participants in the agreement Group II -
Economic and trade relations among the members of the agreement
4 Similarities between Members before paticipating in the agreement
5 The economic and trade relations between nations before the agreement takes effect
Group III - Comparative advantage and complementarity
in trade
6 Comparative advantages of members
7 Complementarity in the trade of members
8 The export structure of partner country signed and did not sign the agreement
Group IV - Trade policy of the members of the agreement
9 Trade barriers between countries before the formation of the agreement
10 Difference in the extent of protection of trade barriers before and after the formation of the agreement
11 The complexity of the rules of origin in the agreement Group V - Price
and elasticity of supply, demand and import demand
12 The difference between the price of the countries signed and the price of the country not signed a trade agreement
13 Elastic supply, demand and import demand for prices
Source: Vu Thanh Huong, 2016
In theory, a trade agreement is not only a basic direct impacting factor, but also
an intermediary factor for others (economic factors, factors of comparative advantage, price, ) which impacts on a country's exports of goods Regarding Vietnam, rice is
an agricultural product for export with high volume and value and is interested of trade negotiations Therefore, Vietnam’s rice export are subject to signed trade agreements’ impact, and need to consider impacts of trade agreements on Vietnam’s rice export through a reciprocal, simultaneous linkage and combinative factors The
Trang 5Include / constitute
Direct Impact
Indirect effect
I, II, III, : Order of group index factors affecting the trade agreements’ ability to impact
Figure 2.2 Framework for analyzing impacts of trade agreements on rice export
of Vietnam
Source: Author's summary
2.2 International experience on adaptation to impacts of trade agreements on
rice export
From the export experience of Thailand, China, India under the impacts of
trade agreements, the thesis draws the following lessons: (1) promote comparative
advantages in rice production and meet technical barriers; (2) sttrengthen safeguard,
dispute settlement by price and subsidy policy; (3) Creating a favorable environment
for accessing the rice market through tariff tools and trade promotion; (4) It should be
based on the economic potential and actual conditions of the rice sector in Vietnam;
(5) There is a need for innovation in identifying the role of the rice sector in entering
into trade agreements
Rice export of Vietnam
Trade aggreement
- Concessionary import tariff
- Rules of origin
- Sanitary and Phytosanitary measures
- Safeguard measures
- Technical Barriers
- Anti-dumping measures
- Dispute settlement mechanism
Nature of the agreement
Economic
distance
Fearutes
of product Economic
scale
area of rice Quality
of rice
Tariff and
non-tariff
policies
Exchange
Economic and
commercial
relations
Comparative advantage and complementarit
Price and elasticity Commercial
policies
Habits, tastes
I
Price of rice export
CHAPTER 3 ANALYZING THE CURRENT SITUATION OF IMPACTS OF TRADE AGREEMENTS ON VIETNAM’S RICE EXPORT 3.1 General of the development of the Vietnam’s rice sector
3.1.1 The situation of Vietnam’s rice production and export from 1981 to 1999
- Regarding production, with two outstanding policies were “Khoan 100” in
1981 and “Khoan 10” in 1988, the Land Law in 1993 and other supporting policies related, the area, yield and productivity of rice in the period 1981-1988 had positive changes and in the period 1989 - 1999, these indicators increased because the production was mainly based on the direction of intensive cultivation
- Regarding export, with renovation in market, the quality, types, price of rice
export, channels of distribution, rice exporters, tariff and quota, Vietnam first exported its products ranked 3rd in the world in 1989 and 2nd in the world in 1997
3.1.2 The situation of Vietnam’s rice production and export from 2000 to 2017
Regarding production, the area of rice cultivation was unstable and tends to be
declining in recent times The increase in rice yield mainly depended on increasing productivity This figure in 2016 and 2017, rice yield was down from 2015 to make the trend of rice productivity was similar change
Regarding export:
Figure 3.4 Vietnam’s rice export in the period 2000-2017
Source: Vietnam Food Association (VFA - http://www.vietfood.org.vn/)
3.2 The reality of impact of trade agreements on rice export of Vietnam in the period 2000 - 2015
3.2.1 Overview of Vietnam's trade agreements
3.2.1.1 The process of participating in the trade agreements of Vietnam
Trang 6Figure 3.5 The situation of participating in the trade agreements of Vietnam
Source: Author's summary from the information on the site: http://www.trungtamwto.vn/fta
3.2.1.2 The contents of the trade agreements are related to rice export
Table 3.1 The field of integration of trade agreements
AFTA ACFTA AKFTA AJCEP VJEPA AIFTA AANZ- FTA VCFTA VKFTA VN-EAEU FTA AHKFTA
Source: Author's summary from the information on the site: http://www.trungtamwto.vn/fta
(i) Contents of tariff: MFN, CEPT or ATIGA are tariff-cutting instruments; (ii) the content
of rules of origin; (iii) Content of Sanitary and Phytosanitary measures; (iv) Safeguard
Vietnam's Trade Agreement
Trade agreements signed /
ASEAN (Validated in 1996)
2005)
2007)
2008) ASEAN – Australia/ New
ASEAN – India (2010)
Vietnam – EU (negotiation finished)
RCEP
Vietnam - EFTA
Vietnam – Israel
Vietnam – Asian-Euro Union
ASEAN – Hongkong (Validated in 2019)
Vietnam - Japan
(Validated in 2009)
Vietnam - Chile
(Validated in 2014)
Vietnam - Korea
(Validated in 2015)
Competition; (viii) Dispute settlement mechanism; (ix) Customs procedures; (x) Business environment
3.2.1.3 General assessment
- After Vietnam applied for membership to the WTO, Vietnam has truly strong integration
- Trade agreements tend to be richer and more diversified contents and areas of integration, and the level of association is getting "deepening”
- For most of the regional and mixed agreements that Vietnam has signed, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has a dominant role
- ACFTA usually take largest density of rice imports from Vietnam compared
to total Vietnam’s rice export
3.2.2 The reality of impact of signed trade agreements on rice export of Vietnam
The thesis used two approaches which are Benefit Analysis Framework and Structural Gravity models to analyze the reality of impacts of trade agreements on rice export of Vietnam in the process of integration (in chronological order of the trade agreements validated) and the type of agreement
3.2.2.1 Approach from the benefit analysis framework
Based on the factors that affect the faculty of impact of a trade agreement, for each agreement includes: AFTA, ACFTA, AJCEP, AKFTA, AIFTA AANZFTA, VJEPA, VKFTA, VCFTA, the thesis clarifies the characteristics, nature and economic relationship between the member countries in each agreement, the comparative advantages of agricultural production of Vietnam Besides, member countries, as well
as the changes in rice import tariff policies of member countries for Vietnam’s rice when the agreement validited Thesis compares the quantity and value of rice exported
by Vietnam to member countries before and after the agreement validated
a The period before 2007
- AFTA: The total volume and value of Vietnam's rice export have changed
markedly before and after the signing of the AFTA The upward happening is inherent in milestones when member countries of AFTA implementing commitments to reduce rice import tariff of Vietnam While the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia are major importers of Vietnam’s rice with annual volumes of approximately 1 million tons and regular customers for Vietnam’s rice, Myanmar is the importer of Vietnam’s rice at least in volume and value
- ACFTA: although China's commitment to reducing rice import tariffs was enforce 10 years later (in 2015), when the agreement entered into force, the export of Vietnam’s rice to China was higher than in previous years After 5 years since the time of validity, China imported Vietnam’s rice with a sudden increase in volume and
always kept high
Trang 7Table 3.6 Export volume of Vietnam's rice to member countries under trade
agreements with ASEAN in the period 2000-2015 (ton)
Australia và
Australia và
Source: data from the General Statistics Office (https://www.gso.gov.vn/)
b The period from 2007 to 2015
- Mixed trade agreements
+ Korea: Commitments on reducing import tariffs were implemented from
January 1st, 2007, gradually reduce leading to eliminate from January 1st, 2010 After
the validity of AKFTA, the volume of Vietnam's rice export to Korea remained very
low in 2007-2008 It increased sharply from 2009, especially during the period 2010 -
2012 (when the rice import tariff South Korea is zero)
+ Japan: No promises to reduce tariff for Vietnam’s rice imported into Japan
During the period 2000 - 2015, the volume of rice imported into Japan was up and
down irregularly Since AJCEP validated, Vietnam's rice export have declined
countinuously and Japan did not imported Vietnam’s rice in 2011 due to technical and
quarantine barriers to rice products Then Japan continues to import Vietnam’s rice
but remains low and unstable
+ Australia and New Zealand: Commitments on concessionary tariffs for rice
of the two countries with Vietnam have been eliminated since Vietnam participated in
the WTO (end of 2006), so the volume of Vietnam’s rice exported to these two
countries tends to increase from 2007 (when Vietnam enjoyed concessionary tariffs
from Australia and New Zealand thanks to WTO accession)
+ India: maintaining high import tariffs on Vietnam’s rice (70% - 80%), the
volume of rice that this country importing from Vietnam declined countinuously and
clearly over the years The time of validy of AIFTA marked the fact that India has
hardly imported rice from Vietnam
- Bilateral trade agreements
Japan has a much larger import volume than South Korea and Chile, especially
VJCEP validity (in 2009) to 2015, this import volume declined dramatically Chile
began importing Vietnam’s rice since 2003 and increased Vietnam’s rice import since
2010 However, since the VCFTA agreement came into effect in 2014 with tariffs applied to rice imported from Vietnam to this country is 6% in 10 years, this amount
of imported rice drops about 50% per year The Vietnam-Korea bilateral agreement, which took effect in 2015, may be the reason why Vietnam's rice export to South
Korea increased again in 2014 and 2015 after suddenly dropping in 2013
* Comparing rice export structure to member countries and groups of countries
Exported Vietnam’s rice consists of 4 types: milled rice, brown rice, broken rice and paddy in which paddy is exported in a very small volume with the main aim of facilitating trade relations between Vietnam and other countries The difference in income, demand, and consumer tastes of rice leads to the difference in the type of imported rice in each member country, in which milled rice is “favorite” rice of many countries in the world, especially ASEAN member countries like the Philippines, Malaysia, and China; brown rice is Vietnam's high-grace rice although it is exported at a very small proportion compared to the total amount of rice exported by Vietnam, which South Korea, Australia and New Zealand imported but unstable; broken rice is less preferred and low prices so, it was imported mainly by ASEAN countries and China
* Compare average price of rice export to member countries and groups
The average export price of rice to countries and groups of regional trade agreements tended to increase and decrease during this period, in which the average price of rice exported to Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand is often higher ASEAN and China are Vietnam’s rice importers with lower average prices Considering each type of rice: milled rice exported to high-life markets such as Korea, Australia and New Zealand are more beneficial to middle-income countries such as ASEAN and China; broken rice makes lower average export price of rice to the countries that import this rice with more weight This suggests that it is necessary to consider the type of rice to be exported for each market classification: it is more beneficial to export rice to a higher-grade markets The situation of rice dumping also makes Vietnam's rice export ineffective
3.2.2.2 Approaching from structural gravity model
a Structural gravity model
The traditional gravitational model is based on the idea of Newton's Law of Gravitation, which is a function of the characteristics of the exporting country, the importing country and the obstruction between these two countries This gravity model is developed on a strong theoretical basis, especially the Structural Gravity Model classes with the Armington-Constant Elasticity of Substitution, CES, together with PPML (Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood) estimation techniques
Taking the natural logarithm, we have the equation:
lnX ijt=lnE jt+lnY i t−lnY t+(1−σ) lnτij t−(1−σ) lnP j t−(1−σ) lnπi t+u ij t which represents bilateral trade costs is represented:
Trang 8j , b
j ϵ
t A
Trang 93.2.3.1 Impact of trade agreement on rice export through a level of integration
Impacts of trade agreements on rice export is less dependent on the number of signed trade agreements and the degree of diversity, "depth" of the field of trade negotiations and association of trade agreements Trade agreement which gives member countries with socio-economic characteristics related to new suitable rice products to Vietnam brings a clear positive impact on Vietnam's rice export
3.2.3.2 Impacts of trade agreements on Vietnam's rice import of the members’ demand
- The impact of income of importing countries on rice export of Vietnam is only low but impacts of trade agreements makes the expenditure on imported rice from Vietnam increase despite a small relatively
- Members which have proximate economic, close geographical to Vietnam or
a comparative advantage, complementary to rice trade, having similarities between the type of consumer rice and Vietnam’s rice export This lead to an increase in demand for imported rice from Vietnam, so trade agreements signed between Vietnam and those member countries has a positive impact on Vietnam’s rice export and vice versa
3.2.3.3 Impacts of trade agreements on Vietnam's rice export trade barriers First, with the ASEAN+6 trade agreements, preferential import tariffs can be
considered as a less content to create discrimination between countries participating in trade agreements compared to other factors
Secondly, clear rules of origin and the need to meet the technical barriers of products create great barriers to Vietnam’s rice export when penetrating markets,
especially those with high living standards and rigorous quality like Japan, United State 3.2.3.4 Impacts of trade agreements on structure and price of Vietnam's rice export
Countries with higher living standards tend to import higher quality rice varieties than countries with lower living standards In addition, the export of medium rice will bring more benefits in the middle market and higher grade rice will be more suitable for the higher end market
3.2.3.5 Impacts of trade agreements on Vietnam's rice export through geographical distance and exchange rate factors
The impact of rice trade creation of signing trade agreements with members through geographical distance factors are not yet clear Besides, the impact of exchange rates on rice export is in fact consistent with the theory
3.3 Advantages, limitations and causes of limitations when Vietnam's rice export are affected by trade agreements
3.3.1 Advantages
- Trade agreements further promote Vietnam’s rice export with member countries with or without income similarities, close to geographical distances, similar rice consumption habits or having comparative advantages and additional capabilities in the agricultural sector, including rice production compared to those countries or not
Trang 10- Import tariffs on Vietnam’s rice are gradually eliminated with most trade
agreements when they validate
- The trade agreement provides a solid basis for quality as well as legal
standards for rice when Vietnam exports when rice import and export disputes occur
with member countries
3.3.2 Difficulties and limitations
- Vietnam's rice importers are still mostly familiar customers, some new
markets are not members that Vietnam has signed
- The competitiveness of Vietnam’s rice is still poor, although Vietnam's
average export price of rice is lower than other countries
- Mixed trade agreements are easy to create a trade diversion when Vietnam’s
rice does not differ or excel in characteristics as well as quality or is not suitable for
rice consumption culture
- The technical regulations and import-export procedures stated in the agreement
make many Vietnam’s rice exporters bring rice to markets by the unofficial way (small
quota), making significantly impact on prestige domestic rice
- The phenomenon of rice export only attaches much importance to the quantity
and neglects the quality of rice, that makes rice export value inadequate
- The direct combined effects of trade agreements are positive but still low
3.3.3 Cause of limitations
Firstly, Vietnam's rice variety and quality have little innovation, its
decentralization at medium level and are often suitable for the current markets of
Vietnam (Asia, Africa) It is difficult to expand to High-end markets such as the US,
Japan and Europe Vietnam has not yet really built up its own brand
Secondly, Vietnam's rice has not really been produced, processed, preserved
according to the agricultural product value chain process consistently before exporting
Thirdly, Vietnam has not yet considered the investigation and collection of
information on fluctuations in rice supply and demand in the world
Fourthly, inaccurate and incomplete about the contents of the signed trade
agreement and the lack of interest in the rice export benefits during the negotiation of
trade agreements
CHAPTER 4 SOME SOLUTIONS TO ENHANCE THE ADAPTABILITY OF
VIETNAM’S RICE EXPORT TO IMPACTS OF
THE TRADE AGREEMENTS BY 2030
4.1 Rice export and import trend in the world affects Vietnam's rice export
4.1.1 Fluctuations in global rice supply and demand
- Considering the global rice supply fluctuations, besides countries such as
Thailand, India, Pakistan with the total rice export market share of these countries
account for about 80% of the total export of rice worldwide, currently The rice export
market has appeared emerging countries with abundant rice supply, good quality and competitive prices
- Considering world demand fluctuations for Vietnamese rice, large importers of
Vietnam’s rice are still Asian countries (China, Philippines, Indonesia .) and Africa
(Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, South Africa ) For high-end markets such as the US, Japan, and
Europe, the amount of Vietnam’s rice exported is tending to increase slowly
4.1.2 Changes in rice export and import policies of countries affecting Vietnam's rice export
Thailand discharges rice stock, China with a large amount of Vietnam’s rice
export through small quota to reduce costs, fluctuations in exchange rates of countries,
rice trade agreements MAV, the Nigerian government increased rice import tax to encourage domestic people towards stopping rice imports
4.1.3 The impact of the commercial war
The trade war between the United States and China is a new manifestation of trade protectionism and the viewpoint of anti-globalization which may increase
Vietnam's rice export opportunities into these two markets to fill the gap However, it
is also possible to reduce the import of rice from Vietnam to two markets because Vietnam’s rice export may be subject to similar import tariffs from the two countries
4.2 The situation potential impacts of trade agreements has not validity and trade agreements are negotiating for Vietnam's rice export
Expenditure on these groups of members had a positive influence on Vietnam’s rice export even though the total effect is not high In particular, the final consumption
of the "more advanced" European market is likely to impact Vietnam's rice export at a clearer level but have limited geographical distance and bilateral exchange rates The average export price of Vietnam’s rice to EFTA is the highest in recent years Israel and Hong Kong are also the two Vietnam’s rice importing countries at relatively high prices Countries with the proportion of imported broken rice has increased, the average export price of rice has decreased
4.3 Trend of the impact of Vietnam's trade agreements on rice export
4.3.1 Trade agreements and tariff barriers for Vietnam’s rice export
Vietnam’s rice must meet the rules of origin and be shown accurately and clearly on the package to be included in the list of commitments to enjoy preferential tariffs when importing into member markets of the trade agreements that Vietnam participates in Therefore, establishing agricultural value chains for Vietnam’s rice export helps exporters easily complete the certification procedure of origin
4.3.2 Trade agreements and non-tariff barriers to Vietnam's rice export
Technical barriers, price regulations, subsidies and rice export policies are content that Vietnam needs to pay more attention to when it comes to trade agreements because these are relatively sensitive issues for the Vietnam’s rice industry Hence, it makes Vietnam’s rice export easy to violate international conventions
4.3.3 Trade agreement and climate change for Vietnam's rice production
Climate change reduces the area of rice cultivation, causing appearing some