Climate change impact assessment on capture and culture of lobster in ninh hai district, ninh thuan province

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRANNING NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY NGUYEN HONG TRUONG CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT ON CAPTURE AND CULTURE OF LOBSTER IN NINH HAI DISTRICT, NINH THUAN PROVINCE MASTER THESIS KHANH HOA – 2017 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRANNING NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY NGUYEN HONG TRUONG CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT ON CAPTURE AND CULTURE OF LOBSTER IN NINH HAI DISTRICT, NINH THUAN PROVINCE MASTER THESIS Marine Ecosystem based Management Major: and Climate Change Code: Topic allocation Decision 772/QĐ-ĐHNT dated 20/9/2016 Decision on establishing the Committee: 461/QĐ-ĐHNT dated 16/5/2017 Defense date: 3/6/2017 Suppervisors: Assoc Prof NGO DANG NGHIA Prof AKHMAD FAUZI Chairman: Assoc Prof PHAM QUOC HUNG Faculty of Graduate Studies: KHANH HOA – 2017 UNDERTAKING I undertake that the thesis entitled: “Climate change impact assessment on capture and culture of lobster in Ninh Hai district Ninh Thuan province” is my own work The work has not been presented elsewhere for assessment until the time this thesis is submitted Nha Trang, date 2nd May, 2017 Nguyen Hong Truong iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I want to express my sincere grateful to the following organizations and persons for their invaluable support, help and encouragement to me in conducting this study: Marine Ecosystem based Management and Climate Change in Norhed program for giving me the opportunity to study and conduct this master thesis on Marine Ecosystem based Management and Climate Change I would like to express special appreciation to my supervisor, Assoc.Prof.PhD: Ngo Dang Nghia and Prof.PhD: Akhmad Fauzi who I have learned a lot from his guidance, useful advices and valuable comments throughout the study period I would you like to thank Locals and Agencies in Ninh Thuan for their helps on collecting primary and secondary data Finally, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my small family (my wife, daughters), friends, classmates and colleagues for their love, encouragement and help Nha Trang, date 2nd May, 2017 Nguyen Hong Truong iv LIST OF CONTENTS UNDERTAKING iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS iv LIST OF CONTENTS v LIST OF SYMBOLS vii LIST OF TABLES viii LIST OF FIGURES ix ABSTRACT xi INTRODUCTION CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW 1.1 An overview of aquaculture and capture of lobster Ninh Thuan province .3 1.2 Role of capture and aquaculture of lobster in Ninh Thuan province .6 1.3 Equipment and tools 1.4 The main factors influence lobster development 11 1.4.1 Depth factor 11 1.4.2 Sea-bottom topography (Seabed structure): 12 1.4.3 Sea water temperature 13 1.4.4 Salinity factor: 14 1.4.5 Wild feed source 15 1.4.6 Storm 16 1.4.7 Wave level and wind 17 1.5 General of study area 18 1.5.1 Actual state of natural conditions 18 1.5.2 Actual state of Climate 19 1.5.3 Actual state of livelihood of local people 30 CHAPTER 2: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND DATA COLLECTION 32 2.1 Research targets and objectives 32 2.2.1 Research targets 32 2.2.2 Research objectives and scope of the research 32 2.1 Research methodology 33 2.2 Study area .34 2.3 Data collection 35 v 2.3.1 Observation method, station's equipment and instrument and method of data processing 35 2.3.2 Secondary data 39 2.4 Data analysis 39 2.4.1 Lobster aquaculture data 39 2.4.2 Climatic factors data 39 2.4.3 Data processing methods 40 CHAPTER 3: RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS 41 3.1 Assessment of natural conditions and socio - economic in Ninh Thuan province 41 3.1.1 Assessment of natural conditions 41 3.1.2 Statistics of socio – economic conditions 41 3.1.3 Economic growth 42 3.1.4 People's literacy levels and education 42 3.2 Variations in capture and culture of lobster production 43 3.2.1 Variability in culture of lobster production 43 3.2.2 Climatic events 45 3.3 Relationship between climate events variations and annual quantity of lobster 46 3.3.1 Annual sea water temperature and quantity of lobster 46 3.3.2 Annual average salinity and quantity of lobster 49 3.3.3 Annual average sea level rise and quantity of lobster 51 3.4 Relationship between climatic events and annual average number of lobster captured per household 54 3.4.1 Annual sea water temperature and number of lobster caught 54 3.4.2 Annual average salinity and number of lobster caught 55 3.4.3 Annual average sea level rise and number of lobster caught 56 3.5 Discussions 57 CHAPTER 4: CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTIONS 60 4.1 Conclusions 60 4.2 Suggestions .61 REFERENCE 62 vi LIST OF SYMBOLS 2a The mesh size of net EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone FCR Feed Conversion Ratio IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SLR Sea Level Rise SWT Sea water temperature SPSS Statistical Package for Social Sciences PPT Parts per thousand vii LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1: Annual average sea water temperature 13 Table 1.2: Annual average sea water salinity 14 Table 1.3: Annual average air temperature in Ninh Thuan 20 Table 1.4: Fluctuation of precipitation in Ninh Thuan province 21 Table 1.5: Annual average relative humidity in Ninh Thuan province 24 Table 1.6: Number of storm effect on in Ninh Thuan province 25 Table 1.7: Frequency of prevailing wind directions in Ninh Thuan province 27 Table 1.8: Mean monthly wind speed in Ninh Thuan province 29 Table 1.9: Mean speed of major wind directions in different months 29 Table 1.10: Maximum speed of major wind directions in different months 29 Table 2.1: Location of stations in Ninh Thuan provinve 35 Table 2.2: Observation equipment of stations 38 Table 3.1: Population situation in Ninh Thuan province and Ninh Hai district, 2015 41 Table 3.2: Labor situation in Viet Nam and Ninh Thuan province 42 Table 3.3: Gross domestic product ( GDP) in Ninh Thuan province, 2015 42 Table 3.4: Statistics education level of lobster farmer 43 Table 3.5: Total lobster production in Ninh Thuan province 44 Table 3.6: Total lobster capture in Ninh Thuan province 44 Table 3.7: Environment factors in Ninh Hai, Ninh Thuan province 46 Table 3.8: Total number of lobster aquaculture in Ninh Hai district 54 viii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1: Catching lobster by gillnet (Binh Son, Ninh Hai district) Figure 1.2: Catching lobster by diving (Source: Tan,2013) Figure 1.3: Catching lobster by trap (Source: Tan, 2013) Figure 4: Aquaculture by floating cage 10 Figure 5: Aquaculture by dimension of fixed cage 10 Figure 1.6: Aquaculture by submerged cage 11 Figure 1.7: The depth of seafloor at sea area in Ninh Thuan province 12 Figure 1.8: Average sea water temperature in Ninh Thuan province 14 Figure 1.9: Average sea water salinity in Ninh Thuan province 15 Figure 1.10: Wave level map at East sea in December 17 Figure 1.11: Wave level map at Southwest sea in August 18 Figure 1.12: Annual average air temperature in Ninh Thuan province 20 Figure 1.13: Annual rainfall, dry season and rainy season in Ninh Thuan 22 Figure 1.14: Annual average relative humidity in Ninh Thuan province 24 Figure 1.15: Frequency of Annual wind speed in Ninh Thuan province 28 Figure 2.1: Commodity lobster aquaculture activities in Vinh Hy bay 33 Figure 2.2: Research content block diagram 34 Figure 2.3: Topography and study area map in Ninh Thuan province 35 Figure 2.4: Map of Net work Hydro-Meteorological in Ninh Thuan 36 Figure 2.5: Observer implemented observations in Phan Rang station 37 Figure 2.6: Observer implemented observations at am, Tri Thuy station 38 Figure 3.1: Fluctuation in lobster production in study area in recent 16 years 44 Figure 3.2: Fluctuation in number of lobster per household in study area 45 Figure 3.3: Variations in Sea water temperature 47 Figure 3.4: Correlation between SWT and lobster production 48 Figure 3.5: Fluctuations of both lobster quantity and sea water temperature 48 Figure 3.6: Variations in salinity in study area during 2000 to 2015 49 Figure 3.7: Fluctuations of both lobster quantity and salinity in study area 50 ix Figure 3.8: Correlation between lobster quantity and Salinity 50 Figure 3.9: Changes in sea level in study area during period 2000 to 2015 51 Figure 3.10: Fluctuations of lobster quantity and SLR 52 Figure 3.10: Correlation between lobster quantity and SLR 52 Figure 3.12: Average sea level rise and salinity in study area during 53 Figure 3.12: Correlation between salinity and sea level rise during study period 54 Figure 3.14: Average sea water temperature and lobster caught 55 Figure 3.15: Correlation between Annual SWT and number of lobster caught 55 Figure 3.17: Correlation between annual salinity and lobster caught 56 Figure 3.18: Annual average sea level rise and number of lobster caught 57 Figure 3.19: Correlation between annual average sea level rise and number of lobster caught 57 x salinity For example, in 2004, when the amount of salinity decreased to 170‰, the aquaculture production was also slightly declined to under 100 tonnes Both of those variables together considerably increased to around 34‰ and 200 tonnes, respectively in 2006 Moreover, take an example at another period during study time from 2011 to 2014, those variables had the similar fluctuations and sharply decreased to lowest of 31.3‰ and 67.1 tonnes, respectively at the end of time series Figure 3.7: Fluctuations of both lobster quantity and salinity in study area Figure 3.8: Correlation between lobster quantity and Salinity 50 3.3.3 Annual average sea level rise and quantity of lobster Variations in sea level rise (SLR) during 2000 to 2015 Figure 3.8 illustrated the scene of fluctuation of sea level during 2000 to 2015 in Vinh Hy Bay and My Tuong village of Ninh Hai district The sea level were ranged from 25 cm to 58 cm in both of 2012 and 2013 spread around the mean value of 58 cm Although there was a considerable decreasing in the first six years, the scene of sea level was present by increasing trend from 2000 to 2015 From 2000 to 2005, the pattern was fluctuated in the downward trend from 44 cm to 25 cm, respectively, except the short increasing in 2001 After 2005, the sea level experienced in suddenly rise to 36 cm in 2006, followed by 2007 slight decreasing again to around 31 cm before beginning the dramatic rise to 58 cm in 2013 This pattern was then declined in 2015 and increased to 56 cm in 2015 ( see Table 3.7) Figure 3.9: Changes in sea level in study area during period 2000 to 2015 Relationship between SLR and lobster production In comparison to salinity, even though the trend of SLR and lobster quantity was inverse, the regression indicated that the SLR had no relationship 51 with lobster production The parameters of r = -0.469 and p = 0.067 indicated that the increasing in SLR is not the cause of decreasing in production of lobster By contrast, at the last 10 years of period, those variables had the positive correlation It means the increasing in sea level coincided with increasing in quantity, excepted the time of from 2009 to 2010, the pattern was reversed Figure 3.10: Fluctuations of lobster quantity and SLR Figure 3.11: Correlation between lobster quantity and SLR 52 Relationship between SLR and Salinity The correlation between SLR and salinity seems to be corresponded in main points during study period (Figure 3.11) The negative correlations were found during period of 2003 to 2011 and recent two years In the former times, the high salinity was coincided with the low sea level rise For instance, in 2005, while the numerous salinity stood at high of more than 50.0‰ coincided with the lowest of SLR with 25 cm Moreover, at the end of this time, the amount of salinity had a decreasing trend reversed with the increasing trend of SLR It is similar to recent two years, these variables had the inverse trend while the SLR ended its variation with a going up to over 56 cm, the amount of salinity was going on the downward trend to 31.3‰ In general, statistical regression analysis showed the negative correlation between these variables This means the SLR is causing of decreasing in salinity (Figure 3.12, r = 0.249, p =0.049) Figure 3.12: Average sea level rise and salinity in study area during 53 Figure 3.13: Correlation between salinity and sea level rise during study period 3.4 Relationship between climatic events and annual average number of lobster captured per household 3.4.1 Annual sea water temperature and number of lobster caught The finding indicated that there is no relationship between annual sea water temperature and lobster capture (r = - 0.162 and p = 0.55) This means increases in inter-annual Sea Water Temperature had no effect on number of lobster captured per household Table 3.8: Total number of lobster aquaculture in Ninh Hai district Unit: Individual Species 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Green lobster 220,000 220,000 197,000 71,000 5,300 Rock lobster 155,000 155,000 132,000 88,500 6,600 Total 375,000 375,000 329,000 159,500 11,900 54 Figure 3.14: Average sea water temperature and lobster caught Figure 3.15: Correlation between Annual SWT and number of lobster caught 3.4.2 Annual average salinity and number of lobster caught Linear coefficience of r = 0.653 and p = 0.008 found in the fact that annual average salinity had significant positive relationship with number of lobster captured (Figure 3.14) This relation reveals that the increasing in inter-annual salinity is the cause of increases in number of lobster captured During recent 16 years, the figure of capture is almost by decreases in annual average salinity 55 Figure 3.16: Annual average salinity and number of lobster caught Figure 3.17: Correlation between annual salinity and lobster caught 3.4.3 Annual average sea level rise and number of lobster caught In addition to test the relationship between climate events and number of lobster captured, the annual average sea level rise had the reversed pattern compared to salinity event Linear processing with coefficence of r = -0.554 and p = 0.026 indicated that there is significant negative correlation between those variables (Figure 3.15) This showed the decreases in number of lobster captured per household was coincided to increases in sea level rise meaning that annual average sea level rise is likely cause of decline of lobster captured 56 Figure 3.18: Annual average sea level rise and number of lobster caught Figure 3.19: Correlation between annual average sea level rise and number of lobster caught 3.5 Discussions Climate change is likely to cause an increase in both the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as tropical storms and hurricanes (IPCC 2007) Combined with sea level rise, this change is expected to bring more frequent and intense storm surges to coastal areas Consequently, wells 57 could be subject to both inundation and physical damage by storm surge The duration of such inundation would likely be brief in the event of storm surge, and the risk of saltwater contamination would therefore likely also be shortlived Wells located in lowlying areas and other locations susceptible to storm surge will be particularly at risk This seemed a converse with the result found in Intitute research of No3 (2015), showing the negative relation between lobster production and number of cage, but this solution means that the farmer need using more cages to reach efficient profitability level Especially in seasonal time, experience over many crops, farmers calculate how to combine different species as well as choose the time point for seeding at the reasonable seed, and how to manage disease at the beginning of a crop in order to get higher benefit Sea water temperature and salinity is one of the most important ecological parameters, determines the distribution of seeds in their lobster species All of the most species of the genus lobsters live in warm waters, tropical region The method of Kevin C Williams (2009) gave the higher results than that of Thinh (2015) and Nguyen thi Kieu Thao (2012) for sea water temperature and salinity in Ninh Thuan province Because they got many data of oceanography station, but Thinh and Thao experimented in the pond and surveyed at the short time in study region Comparing the results to those reported in papers related to larger regions such as the Central of Viet Nam including Vinh Hy bay, the lobster aquaculture was found to be slightly less profitable Vinh Hy bay is one of two lobster culture regions in Ninh Thuan province, which is a place with the longest experienced farmer in provinces of Central coast (Thinh, 2015) Impacts of climate factors ( including: salinity, sea level, sea water and extreme events) on aquaculture could occur directly and or indirectly and not all facets of climate change will impact on aquaculture Aquaculture practices, 58 as in any farming practice, are defined in space, time and size and have a fair degree of manoeuvrability Furthermore, aquaculture production focus in certain convenient climatic regions and continents for example: Vinh Hy Bay, Phan Rang Bay, My Tuong village, etc It is hard to define exactly how much of the change is due to the climate change events and how much which is caused by extreme climatic factors (salinity, sea level rise, storm, heavy rainfall, high wave etc However, it might be interpreted as sign of the these factors caused reducing lobster aqualculture and wild caught lobster 59 CHAPTER 4: CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTIONS 4.1 Conclusions Aquaculture and capture of lobster in the sea region of Ninh Hai district focused My Tuong, Khanh Nhon and Vinh Hy Bay area Harvest season is concentrated in two crops: the mainly crop is from October to March of after year and the subperiod is from April to September There are three mainly kinds of exploitations were gillnet, trap and diving In which the kind of gillnet combined with light is mainly etc Annual number of seed lobster were from 11,900 to 375,900 individuals per year; Number of seed lobsters used for comodity lobster accounts for - 7% The number of seed lobsters were mainly green lobster and rock lobster Aquaculture and lobster exploitation activities in the sea region of Ninh Hai district is vulnerable by affected of climate change, sea level rise and extreme events, establish adaptation solutions and respond to climatic factors in this area is very critial necessarily Results of impact assessment of climate change on aquaculture and capture of lobster (including: increase in sea water temperature, increased salinity, sea level rise, abnormal rainfall, extreme phenomenon) and adaptability (including reduced natural disaster programmers, mitigation and adaptation, respond to climate change, awareness) has shown that high vulnerability in aquaculture activities in Ninh Hai district The thesis has provided information support local policies development to improve adaptability and reduce of impacts of climate change on aquaculture and lobster exploitation in Ninh Hai district, Ninh Thuan province 60 4.2 Suggestions The solutions and respond to climate change and extreme phenomenon in this region is very critial necessary Need more in suitable implements with natural conditions in the different localities, region Departements and agencies in Ninh Hai district and Ninh Thuan province need to relate and support solutions to respond to climate change, especially, Agriculture and rural development department, Natural resource and Environmemt Department Adaptive solutions have to cooporate with the fisheries, agriculture and construction to implement effectively and save money 61 REFERENCE Bergen, 2011 Spiny lobster aquaculture in Vietnam: constraints and opportunities, by Le Anh Tuan at www.imr.no/icwl_bergen Circular No 24/2009/TT-BTNMT dated November 16, 2009 issued by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment regulating on the construction area of hydro-meteorological stations Decision No 15/2007/QD-BTNMT dated October 1, 2007 issued by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment regulating on the economic-technical norms of investigation and survey of hydrometeorology Decision No 17/2008/QD-BTNMT dated December 31, 2008 of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment issued the National technical regulation on hydro-meteorology Duc, 2011 An Oveview of Viet Nam fishery sector – FAO FAO, 2017 FAO Global Capture Production database updated to 2015 Summary information http://www.fao.org/3/a-br186e.pdf Ha Noi, 2013 Decision No.1183/QĐ- TTg dated 30 August, 2012 National target program to respond to climate change 2012- 2015 Ha Noi, 2011 Ministry of Natural Resource and Environment Climate change scenario, Sea level rise for Viet Nam IPCC 2007a.Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S Solomon, D.Qin, M Manning, Z Chen, M Marquis, K.B Averyt, M Tignor and H.L Miller, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 996 pp 10 Ministry of Natureal resource and Environment: Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Efforts in Vietnam by Le Minh Nhat PhD 62 11 Ministry of Natural Resource and Environment, 2010 Summary report on Sea level rise scenarios and mitigative ability risk in Viet Nam 12 NACA 2011 Progress Report for the Project “Strengthening Adaptive Capacities to the Impacts of Climate Change in Resource-poor Small-scale Aquaculture and Aquatic Resources-development Sector in the South and South-east Asian Region” 88 Interim Report for 2nd Year of NACA Aquaclimate Project March 2011, Bangkok, Thailand 13 NAO 2007 Cost-Effectiveness Analysis in the 2006 Climate Change Programme Review A Review, by the National Audit Office London 14 Research Institute of Aquaculture and fisheries No.3, 2015 Lobster Developing and planning of lobster by 2020 and rientable to 2030 15 Oxfam 2008 Viet Nam: Climate change, adaptation and poor people, Oxfam report 16 Phillips B.F 2000 Perspectives pp 667-672 in “Spiny lobsters: fisheries and culture, 2nd edition” Blackwell Science Ltd: London 17 Thuy Nguyen Thi Bich and Ngoc Nguyen Bich (2004), Current Status and Exploitation of Wild Spiny Lobsters in Vietnamese Waters In: Spiny lobster ecology and exploitation in the South China Sea region (ed By Kevin C.Williams), pp 13-16 18 The Environmental Impact of Two AustralianRock Lobster Fishery Supply Chains under a Changing Climate byIngrid E van Putten, Anna K Farmery, Bridget S Green, Alistair J Hobday, Lilly Lim-Camacho, Ana Norman-L´ opez, and Robert W Parker at https://www.researchgate.net/publication/287977374 2015 19 USA.1995 Lobster movements in response to a hurricane by Steven H Jury*, W Huntting Howell, Winsor H Watson 111'' 63 20 UNFCCC 2007 Climate Change: Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Development Countries UNFCCC Seretariat Bonn, Germany Available at: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/publications/impacts.pdf 21 World Bank 2009 Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Projects Washington, DC: The World Bank 22 World Fish Center 2011 Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability Assessments, Economic and Policy Analysis of Adaptation Strategies in Selected Coastal Areas in Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam First Technical Progress Report September 2011 23 Yamane, Taro 1967 Statistics: An Introductory Analysis, 2nd Ed., New York: Harper and Row 64 ...MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRANNING NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY NGUYEN HONG TRUONG CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT ON CAPTURE AND CULTURE OF LOBSTER IN NINH HAI DISTRICT, NINH THUAN PROVINCE. .. situation in Ninh Thuan province and Ninh Hai district, 2015 41 Table 3.2: Labor situation in Viet Nam and Ninh Thuan province 42 Table 3.3: Gross domestic product ( GDP) in Ninh Thuan province, ... overview of aquaculture and capture of lobster Ninh Thuan province .3 1.2 Role of capture and aquaculture of lobster in Ninh Thuan province .6 1.3 Equipment and tools 1.4 The main factors