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" CHUdNG : RUI RO CUA CAC CO PHIEU NIEM YET TAl TRUNG TAM GIAO DlCB CHUNG KHOAN TP HO CHI MINH 84 , so J rut " ro c h'nh , th'l truang ' 4.1 MQt cua coil ph'/ 1eu 84 4.2 Rui ro kinh doanh Bibica- vi dv diSn hinh v~ sv giam gia c6 phiSu che d~u thOng tin x~u nam thU: 84 "• •;, " A • 1Q'l 86 4.3 Rut ro bten dQng suat s1nh J 4.4 Rm ro h~ thong va' rut ro ph'1 hA~ t hAong 94 'I' 1\ ?' 4.5 D() khoan 98 / ·- cac , coA ph'/ H~ soJ tuang quan veA suat s1'nh 1Q'l gma 1eu 106 A CHUdNG : MQT SO DANH GIA VA KIEN NGHJ 111 Tang cuemg kha nang sinh 1qi 111 5.2 Giam thiSu rui ro kinh doanh 112 : , ?' b'J , ., 5.3 Dot va1 rut ro ten dQng g1a 113 5.4 Tang cuemg kha nang khoan 115 KET LUAN ···························································································································· 124 TN LIEU THAM KHAO 125 PH1J Lt)C 127 Phv1vc : M()t s6 chi s6 chu ySu cua thi truemg v6n thS gi&i 127 Phv1vc : M()t chi s6 c6 phiSu to an cAu 128 Phv1vc : Danh gia ho~t d()ng thi truemg chU:ng khoan nam 2004 129 Phv1vc 4: Bao cao tflng kSt 2004 cua Uy ban ChU:ng khoan Nha nu&c 134 Phvlvc : Mvc tieu, nhi~m V\1 phat tri~n thi truemg chU:ng khoan nam 2005 139 Chung toi xin bay to S\f biSt on chan dSn cac Co, Th~y : PGS.TS Tr~n Ng9c Tha Khoa Tai chinh Doanh nghi~p Trubng Dliti h9c Kinh tS TP HCM TS N guySn Thi N g9c Trang Khoa Tai chinh Doanh nghi~p Trubng Dliti h9c Kinh tS TP HCM TS Bui Kim YSn Khoa Ngan hang Trubng Dliti h9c Kinh tS TP HCM TS NguySn Quang Thu Khoa Qwin tri Kinh doanh Trubng Dliti h9c Kinh tS TP HCM TS Si'r E>inh Thanh Khoa Tai chinh Nha nu6c Trubng Dliti h9c Kinh tS TP HCM PGS.TS £>6 Linh Hi~p ThS Phan Thi Tubng Tam Trubng Dliti h9c Ngan hang TP HCM Trung tam Giao dich Chilng khoan TP.HCM cac dBng nghi~p, CO' quan, cong ty da co nhfing nh~n xet quy bau, giup cho chung toi hoan thi~n cts tai TP.HB Chi Minh, 21/0112005 Chu nhi~m dS tai H6 ViSt TiSn Tdc giii chiu trdch nhifm hoan toan vJ nhimg sai sot co tid co aJ tai Nhimg nh~n ilinh aJ tai chi mang tfnh chat h(JC thu~t, khong nhat thi€t fil quan iliJm CUQ CO' quan nO'i tac giii cong tdc, ciing khong co m{lC ilfch chi trich cdc cong ty niem y€t Nhimg nh~n ilinh khong chiu (mh htritng CUa bat CU tJ chti'c nao hO(lt ilpng linh V{l'C thi trtdlng chti'ng khoan va a/iu tU' chlfng khodn, va v~y tdc giii khong chiu trdch nhifm ilai vOi nhii'ng hanh vi llliu ttr chli'ng khodn ilU'!fc cho Ia can eli' tren nhii'ng nh~n ilinh cua aJ tai M6'£>AU Ly nghien c(pu a~ tai Tu Trung tam Giao dich chling khoan TP H6 Chf Minh di vao ho~t dqng (thang 7/2000) da c6 nhieu bai bao vi~t ve nhfi'ng bi~n d¢ng cua thi truemg chung khoan Tuy nhi~n nhfrng bai vi~t d6 n~ng ve m6 ta hi¢n tUQ'Ilg, m6 ta muc d¢ l~n xu6ng cua thi truemg qua m¢t vai phi~n ho~c chi th6ng qua bi~u hi¢n b~n ngoai rna chua phan tfch duqc xu hu6ng dai h~n cua thi truemg Khi thi tnl'ong tang gia, s6lung dSn chinh sach lai su~t Uii su~t trai phiSu Chinh phu, lai su~t ngan hang v~n a mtrc cao lqi tuc dftu tu c6 phiSu th~p, phftn nao anh huang d@n dftu tu tren TTCK TTCK da ho~t d(>ng duqc gftn nam, d6 ho~t d(>ng kinh doanh, cung c~p dich V\l va dftu tu Clla cac vien tham gia thi tru(mg cang tiSn t&i tinh chuycn nghi~p han; day c6 thS la m9t ySu t6 thu~n lqi g6p phftn cho thi truang c6 bu&c phat triSn t6t bon thai gian t&i H :Danh gia ho~t d()ng TTCK nam 2004 l Nhiiug k~t qua da d~t drrQ·c 1.1 Thi trU'img tU'o'ng tlOi Jn tljnh va tlii tl~t tlU'(J'c sv: tiing trU'ii'ng nhOt tlinh vJ giao djch va ttau tU' chwng khoan niem yit - Qui m6 thj truong giao djch chung khocm niem ydt tiip t~tc tang len: Gia tri chl1ng khoan niem y6t tang them nam 2004 gftn 12.500 ty d&ng, tang 93,4% so vo·t gta trf chU:ng khoan niem yit nam 2003, d6: niem ySt c6 phiSu tang them gftn 216 ty, chung chi quy dfiu tu 300 ty - Thj tru&ng vdn thu hut them au(fc cac nha adu tu tham gia: Tinh dSn cu6i nam 2004, t6ng s6 tai khoan cua nha ddu tum& t~i cac c6ng ty chl1ng khoan la 20.300 tai khoan, tang 18% so v&i thai diSm cu6i nam 2003 DiSm n6i b~t la ben c~nh vi~c dftu tu c6 phiSu, nha d~u tu nu&c ngoai chuy~n m~nh sang giao dich trai phiSu (chiSm 48% t6ng gia tri giao djch cua nha d&u tu nu&c ngoai) - Gta c6 phiiu niim 2004 diin h&i phvc sau giai do~n suy giam cac nam 2002 va 2003, giao dfch cd phidu tren TTGDCK xu thd 6n dinh hon, gia c6 phi~u hiiu nhu kh6ng c6 bi~n d(>ng 1.6n Chi s6 VN-Index 6' ml"rc 239,29 31/12/2004, tang 72,35 diSm (tren 43%) so v6'i chi s6 VN Index 31/12/2003 la 166,94 - Tinh khoan cua thi tf'U'(Jng giao djch chung khoan niem ydt aU'(J'C nang len Kh6i lu: