Tác động của tự do hóa tài khoản vốn tới tăng trưởng kinh tế ở Việt Nam (2)

Header Page of 166 i LI CAM OAN Tụi ó c v hiu v cỏc hnh vi vi phm s trung thc hc thut Tụi cam kt bng danh d cỏ nhõn rng nghiờn cu ny l tụi thc hin v khụng vi phm yờu cu v s trung thc hc thut Giỏo viờn hng dn Lng Thỏi Bo Footer Page of 166 Tỏc gi lun ỏn Lng Th Thu Hng Header Page of 166 ii LI CM N Trc ht, tụi xin trõn trng cm n cỏc thy cụ giỏo trng i hc Kinh t quc dõn, Vin Ngõn hng - Ti chớnh, Vin o to Sau i hc ó ging dy v trang b cho tụi cỏc kin thc, k nng nghiờn cu sut khúa hc c bit, tụi xin by t lũng bit n sõu sc i vi TS Lng Thỏi Bo v TS Nguyn Th Kim Thanh, ngi ó tn tỡnh giỳp v hng dn, úng gúp cỏc ý kin quớ bỏu cho tụi sut quỏ trỡnh thc hin lun ỏn ny Sau cựng tụi xin chõn thnh cm n s giỳp , ng viờn ca gia ỡnh sut quỏ trỡnh hc v hon thnh lun ỏn Tỏc gi lun ỏn Lng Th Thu Hng Footer Page of 166 Header Page of 166 iii MC LC LI CAM OAN Error! Bookmark not defined LI CM N ii MC LC iii DANH MC CC T VIT TT vi DANH MC BNG BIU, BIU , S vii LI M U CHNG C S Lí LUN V TNG QUAN NGHIấN CU V TC NG CA T DO HểA TI KHON VN TI TNG TRNG KINH T 1.1 C s lý lun v tỏc ng ca t húa ti khon ti tng trng kinh t 1.1.1 Nhng c bn v t húa ti khon 1.1.2.Tỏc ng ca t húa ti khon ti tng trng kinh t 20 1.1.3 iu kin t húa ti khon tỏc ng tớch cc ti tng trng kinh t 31 1.1.4 L trỡnh t húa ti khon theo quan im ca IMF 35 1.2 Tng quan nghiờn cu v tỏc ng ca t húa ti khon ti tng trng kinh t 37 1.2.1 Nghiờn cu thc nghim s dng d liu chộo hoc d liu mng 38 1.2.2 Nghiờn cu thc nghim da vo d liu chui thi gian 43 CHNG THC TRNG T DO HểA TI KHON VN VIT NAM 49 2.1 Chớnh sỏch t húa cỏc giao dch trờn ti khon Vit Nam 49 2.1.1 Cỏc quy nh ca phỏp lut i vi dũng vo 49 2.1.2 Cỏc quy nh ca phỏp lut i vi dũng 57 2.2 Thc trng cỏc giao dch trờn ti khon Vit Nam giai on 20002014 61 Footer Page of 166 Header Page of 166 iv 2.2.1 Thc trng dũng u t trc tip nc ngoi FDI trờn ti khon ca Vit Nam 62 2.2.2 Thc trng dũng u t giỏn tip nc ngoi FII trờn ti khon ca Vit Nam 63 2.2.3 Thc trng dũng vay nc ngoi trờn ti khon ca Vit Nam 65 2.2.4 Thc trng dũng u t trc tip nc ngoi trờn ti khon ca Vit Nam 67 2.2.5 Thc trng dũng u t nc ngoi di dng tin, tin gi trờn ti khon ca Vit Nam 69 2.3 ỏnh giỏ mc t húa ti khon Vit Nam 70 CHNG TC NG CA T DO HểA TI KHON VN TI TNG TRNG KINH T VIT NAM 77 3.1 Khỏi quỏt tng trng kinh t Vit Nam giai on 2000-2014 77 3.2 Phõn tớch nh tớnh tỏc ng ca t húa ti khon ti tng trng kinh t ca Vit Nam giai on 2000-2014 80 3.2.1 Tỏc ng ca t húa ti khon ti tng trng kinh t thụng qua tng tng u t xó hi hay tng u t cho nn kinh t 80 3.2.2 Tỏc ng ca t húa ti khon ti tng trng kinh t thụng qua phỏt trin ti chớnh 90 3.3 Phõn tớch nh lng tỏc ng ca t húa ti khon ti tng trng kinh t Vit Nam 99 3.3.1 Bin s v d liu 99 3.3.2 Phng phỏp nghiờn cu 102 3.3.3 Kt qu nghiờn cu 106 3.3.4 Gii thớch kt qu nghiờn cu 112 3.4 Phõn tớch cỏc iu kin t húa ti khon tỏc ng tớch cc ti tng trng kinh t Vit Nam 114 3.4.1 S phỏt trin ti chớnh 115 Footer Page of 166 Header Page of 166 v 3.4.2 Cht lng th ch 119 3.4.3 Mc t húa thng mi 121 3.4.4 Chớnh sỏch kinh t v mụ 122 CHNG KT LUN V MT S KHUYN NGH 127 4.1 Kt lun chung v kt qu nghiờn cu 127 4.1.1 Tỏc ng ca t húa ti khon ti tng trng kinh t Vit Nam 127 4.1.2 Cỏc iu kin t húa ti khon tỏc ng tớch cc ti tng trng kinh t Vit Nam 128 4.1.3 Mc t húa ti khon Vit Nam 129 4.2 Quan im t húa ti khon v tng trng kinh t Vit Nam 131 4.3 Mt s khuyn ngh 132 4.3.1 Xỏc nh l trỡnh t húa ti khon Vit Nam phự hp 132 4.3.2 Tỏi c cu v i mi, hin i húa h thng ngõn hng thng mi 134 4.3.3 Nõng cao cht lng th ch 138 4.3.4 Hon thin v tng cng phi hp cỏc chớnh sỏch kinh t v mụ 140 4.3.5 Nõng cao hiu qu thu hỳt v s dng FDI v vay nc ngoi 144 4.3.6 Tng cng qun lý dũng u t giỏn tip nc ngoi 146 KT LUN 148 DANH MC CC CễNG TRèNH CễNG B CA TC GI LIấN QUAN N LUN N 150 TI LIU THAM KHO 151 PH LC 160 Footer Page of 166 Header Page of 166 vi DANH MC CC T VIT TT AEC : Cng ng kinh t Asean AREAER : Bỏo cỏo hng nm v kim soỏt ngoi hi ca Qu tin t quc t BOP : Cỏn cõn toỏn quc t CP : Chớnh ph DNNN : Doanh nghip Nh nc FDI : u t trc tip nc ngoi FII : u t giỏn tip nc ngoi FPI : u t danh mc nc ngoi IFS : Thng kờ ti chớnh quc t IMF : Qu tin t quc t NHNN : Ngõn hng Nh nc NHTM : Ngõn hng thng mi NHTW : Ngõn hng Trung ng OECD : T chc hp tỏc v phỏt trin kinh t TCTD : T chc tớn dng TPP : Hip nh i tỏc xuyờn Thỏi Bỡnh Dng TTCK : Th trng chng khoỏn UBCKNN : y ban chng khoỏn Nh nc UBGSTCQG : y ban giỏm sỏt ti chớnh quc gia WB : Ngõn hng th gii WTO : T chc thng mi th gii Footer Page of 166 Header Page of 166 vii DANH MC BNG BIU, BIU , S Bng biu Bng 1.1: Ni dung t húa cỏc giao dch trờn ti khon 13 Bng 1.2: Ch s Share mt s nc giai on 1986-1995 16 Bng 1.3 Vớ d v vic cho im i vi M v n da vo d liu ca IMF 1979 17 Bng 1.4: Ch s Capital v capital ca mt s nc Chõu 18 Bng 1.5: Mc tng trng trng thỏi dng ca cỏc bin 22 Bng 1.6: L trỡnh t húa ti khon theo quan im ca IMF 35 Bng 2.1: D n nc ngoi phõn theo ch th v thi hn vay 66 Bng 2.2: u t nc ngoi ca Vit Nam giai on 2000-2014 68 Bng 2.3: Ch s KAOPEN cỏc quc gia giai on 2000-2014 71 Bng 3.1: Th phn hot ng ca cỏc ngõn hng giai on 2005-2014 96 Bng 3.2: Danh sỏch ngõn hng nc v c ụng chin lc nc ngoi 98 Bng 3.3: Din gii cỏc bin mụ hỡnh 102 Bng 3.4: Thng kờ mụ t cỏc bin mụ hỡnh 102 Bng 3.5: Kt qu kim tra tớnh dng thụng qua kim nh PP: 106 Bng 3.6: tr c la chn theo tiờu chun SC 107 Bng 3.7: Kt qu kim nh ng bao (Bounds Testing) 107 Bng 3.8: Cỏc h s di hn ca mụ hỡnh ARDL 108 Bng 3.9: Kt qu kim nh t tng quan (LM test) 109 Bng 3.10: Tng hp kt qu nghiờn cu nh lng 112 Bng 3.11: ROA, ROE h thng NHTM Vit Nam giai on 2010-2014: 118 Biu th 1.1: T húa ti khon trongmụ hỡnh tng trng tõn c in 23 th 1.2.Tỏc ng ca t húa ti khon ti chi phớvn, u t v tng trng 24 Footer Page of 166 Header Page of 166 viii Biu 2.1: Dũng u t trc tip nc ngoi vo Vit Nam giai on 2000-2014 (n v: triu USD) 62 Biu 2.2: Dũng u t giỏn tip nc ngoi vo Vit Nam giai on 2005-2014 (n v: triu USD) 64 Biu 2.3: Dũng vay nc ngoi ca Vit Nam giai on 2000-2014 66 Biu 2.4: Dũng tin, tin gi nc ngoi ca Vit Nam giai on 20002014 69 Biu 2.5 : Tng ti sn v khon phi tr nc ngoi/GDP 73 Biu 2.6: Khon phi tr nc ngoi/GDP 73 Biu 3.1: Tc tng trng GDP giai on 2000-2014 78 Biu 3.2: Tng quan gia dũng nc ngoi vo vi GDP thc v tc tng trng GDP giai on 2000-2014 81 Biu 3.3: C cu u t phỏt trin giai on 2000-2014 82 Biu 3.4: T l u t nc ngoi/Tng u t phỏt trin giai on 2000-2014 84 Biu 3.5: úng gúp ca khu vc FDI vo GDP giai on 2000-2014 85 Biu 3.6: T trng xut khu v nhp khu ca khu vc cú u t nc ngoi so vi tng kim ngch xut khu v nhp khu 86 Biu 3.7: T l vay nc ngoi gii ngõn/Tng u t 89 Biu 3.8: Tng quan gia mc t húa ti khon vnv sõu ti chớnh (1) 91 Biu 3.9: Tng quan gia mc t húa ti khon v sõu ti chớnh (2) 92 Biu 3.10: Kim nh CUSUM 110 Biu 3.11: Cht lng th ch Vit Nam giai on 2000-2014 120 S S 1.1: T húa ti khon thỳc y s phỏt trin th trng 28 S 1.2:iu kin t húa ti chớnh tỏc ng tớch cc ti tng trng 31 Footer Page of 166 Header Page of 166 LI M U Lý la chn ti T húa ti khon l mt xu th tt yu ca cỏc quc gia quỏ trỡnh hi nhp Lý thuyt kinh t ch rng t húa ti khon to iu kin phõn b trờn phm vi quc t mt cỏch hiu qu hn, chi phớ gim xung t ú thỳc y u t v tng trng kinh t (Fisher,1998) Ngoi ra, t húa ti khon cũn gúp phn tng cng s phỏt trin ca th trng ti chớnh nc v cung cp mt ng lc mnh m cho cỏc nh hoch nh chớnh sỏch vic thc hin v trỡ cỏc chớnh sỏch kinh t v mụ vng mnh (Egbuna v cng s, 2013) Trờn thc t, dũng quc t t nhng nc phỏt trin ti nhng nc ang phỏt trin tng lờn ỏng k nhng nm gn õy Nhiu nc ang phỏt trin thc hin cỏc chng trỡnh t húa thng mi v ti chớnh ú cú t húa ti khon vi hi vng cú th thỳc y mnh m s phỏt trin ti chớnh nc v tng trng kinh t Tuy nhiờn, mt s quc gia ún nhn dũng nc ngoi khng l nh cỏc nc ụng giai on trc khng hong (1997) ó phi tr giỏ t trc s rỳt t ca cỏc nh u t giỏn tip v u c ti chớnh Nhiu quc gia, in hỡnh l Malaysia v cỏc nc ụng Nam sau ú ó phi thc hin cỏc bin phỏp kim soỏt nghiờm ngt nhanh chúng thoỏt khng hong Nhiu nh kinh t hc cng t cõu hi v nhng li ớch thc s ca t húa ti khon i vi cỏc nc, c bit l cỏc nc ang phỏt trin Mt nhng trng tõm cỏc tranh lun quc t v s cn thit thc hin t húa ti khon cỏc nc ang phỏt trin l mi quan h tớch cc ca dũng v tng trng kinh t Theo Bailliu (2000) v Bonfiglioli (2008), t húa ti khon cú th tỏc ng ti tng trng kinh t theo hai phng thc: Trc tip thụng qua tỏc ng ti quy mụ u t; Giỏn tip thụng qua tỏc ng ti phỏt trin ti chớnh nc Tuy nhiờn kt qu l khụng thng nht gia cỏc nghiờn cu ngoi tr mt s ti nghiờn cu v tỏc ng ca u t trc tip nc ngoi (FDI) ti tng trng kinh t Kt qu nghiờn cu ca Quinn v cng s (1997) ch t húa ti khon tỏc ng tớch cc ti tng trng tt c cỏc quc gia; Klein v Olivei (2008) cho rng mi quan h cựng chiu ch xy nhng nc ang phỏt trin; Edward (2001) v Chinn Footer Page of 166 Header Page 10 of 166 v Ito (2006) li cho rng t húa thỳc y tng trng cỏc quc gia t c mc nht nh phỏt trin kinh t v th ch Ngc li, Rodrik (1998) v Kraay (1998) khụng tỡm bt k bng chng no v mi quan h trờn Ngoi ra, cũn mt s tỏc gi nghiờn cu tỏc ng ca t húa lờn tng trng kinh t mt quc gia hoc mt nhúm quc gia c th v kt qu cng cú s khỏc bit Law v Singh (2008) nghiờn cu v trng hp ca Malaysia cho rng t húa mang tớnh cht phỏp lý (de jure) khụng thỳc y tng trng, ú kt qu l ngc li i vi dũng thc t (de facto), nhiờn iu ny cũn ph thuc vo cht lng th ch v s phỏt trin ti chớnh nc Phõn tớch ca Egbuna v cng s (2013) cho thy t húa Ghana v Sierra tỏc ng tớch cc ti tng trng c di hn v ngn hn tỏc ng ny l õm Gambia, Guinea, Liberia v Nigeria ng thi, bng chng thc nghim cng ch rng, s phỏt trin ti chớnh úng gúp vai trũ quan trng mi quan h gia t húa ti khon v tng trng kinh t Mt mt, s phỏt trin ti chớnh l kờnh dn ni t c mc tiờu cui cựng l tng trng kinh t Mt khỏc, s phỏt trin ti chớnh l iu kin tin cn thit cỏc quc gia c bit l cỏc nc ang phỏt trin phỏt huy c nhng tỏc ng tớch cc ca t húa ti khon Vit Nam l mt nc ang phỏt trin nm Hip hi cỏc quc gia ụng Nam Asean So vi mt s quc gia khu vc nh Malaysia, Thỏi Lan, Singapore v Indonesia, Vit Nam thc hin m ca kinh t giai on mun hn nhng hi nhp quc t ó v ang mang li nhng kt qu rt ỏng ghi nhn, c bit l thu hỳt u t nc ngoi gúp phn quan trng vo s tng trng v n nh ca nn kinh t Theo bỏo cỏo ca B K hoch v u t, nm 2014, c nc cú 1.588 d ỏn u t nc ngoi mi c cp giy chng nhn u t vi tng ng ký 15,64 t USD, tng 9,6% so vi cựng k nm 2013 Ngoi ra, cú 594 lt d ỏn tng u t vi tng ng ký tng thờm l 4,58 t USD bng 62,4% so vi cựng k nm 2013 u t nc ngoi l khu vc phỏt trin nng ng nht vi tc tng GDP cao hn tc tng trng c nc, t trng úng gúp ca khu vc ny GDP tng dn t 2% GDP nm 1992 lờn 20% nm 2014 c bit, s kin tr thnh thnh viờn ca T chc thng mi th gii WTO nm 2007 v gn õy nht l vic tham gia Hip nh i tỏc xuyờn Thỏi Bỡnh Dng Footer Page 10 of 166 Header Page 161 of 166 153 23 Th tng Chớnh ph (1999), Quyt nh s 145/1999/Q-TTg ngy 28/06/1999 ban hnh v quy ch bỏn c phn cho nh u t nc ngoi 24 Th tng Chớnh ph (2003), Quyt nh s 36/2003/Q-TTg ngy 11/3/2003 ca Th tng Chớnh ph v Quy ch gúp vn, mua c phn ca nh u t nc ngoi cỏc doanh nghip Vit Nam 25 Th tng Chớnh ph (2009), Quyt nh s 88/2009/Q-TTg ngy 18/06/2009 26 Tụ Trung Thnh (2013), Cn tng cng tớnh c lp chớnh sỏch tin t, ndh.vn 27 Tụ c Hnh (2014), Tng trng kinh t Vit Nam 2011-2015: Mt chng ng, nhiu gii phỏp, vnep.org.vn 28 Tng cc Thng kờ (2014), Doanh nghip cú u t nc ngoi giai on 2006-2011, Nh xut bn Thng kờ H Ni 29 Trnh Th Hoa Mai (2011), Tớnh bt n ca t ti chớnh, truy cp t trang web http://dl.ueb.vnu.edu.vn/ ngy 11/04/2015 30 Trnh Mai Võn v Nguyn Vn i (2014), Thc trng u t t ngun nh nc Vit Nam, tapchitaichinh.vn TI LIU TING ANH 31 Adnanhye, Q.M & Wizarat, S (2013), Impact of financial liberalization on economic growth: a case study of Pakistan, Asian Economic and Financial Review 32 Alfaro,Chanda,Kalemli-Ozcan and Sayek (2004),FDI and Economic Growth:The role of local Financial Markets,Journal of International Economics,Vol 64 No 33 Al-Malkawi, Husam-Aldin N., Hazem A Marashdeh and Naziruddin Abdullah (2012), Financial 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Economy Management Finance Journal 22.252, 70-89 39 ARIầ, Kvanỗ Halil (2014), "The Effects of Financial Development on Economic Growth in the European Union: A Panel Data Analysis." International Journal of Economic Practices and Theories 4.4, 466-471 40 Arteta, C., Eichengreen, B and Wyplosz, C.(2001), When does capital account liberalization help more than it hurts?, NBER Working Paper Series 84 41 Athukorala, P C., & Tien, T Q (2012) Foreign direct investment in industrial transition: the experience of Vietnam Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy,17(3), 446-463 42 Bailliu, J.N (2000), Private Capital Flows, Financial Development and Economic Growth in Developing Countries, Working Paper 2000-15, Bank of Canada 43 Berger, A N., DeYoung, R., Genay, H., & Udell, G F (2000) Globalization of financial institutions: Evidence from cross-border banking performance Brookings-Wharton papers on financial services, 2000(1), 23-120 44 Bekaert (G.), Harvey (C.R.), Lundblad (C.) 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(1999), How effective are Capital Controls?, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Fall, Vol.13, No.4, pages 65-84 53 Edwards, S (2001), Capital mobility and Economic Performance: Are Emerging Economies different, NBER Working Paper Series 8076 54 Egbuna, Oniwoduokit, Mansaray, Umo and Adenekan (2013), Capital account liberalization and growth in WAMZ: An Empirical Analysis, International Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol 5, No.12, ISSN 1916-917X 55 Eichengreen, B (2001), Capital Account Liberalization: What Do CrossCountry Studies Tell Us? the world bank economic review, 15(3), 341-365 56 Eichengreen, B., Gullapalli, R and Panizza, U (2011), Capital account liberalization, Financial Development and Industry Growth: A Synthetic View, Journal of International Money and Finance Vol 30, Issue 6, Pages 1090-1106 57 Fisher (S.) 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Exploring the Collateral Effect from Capital Account Liberalization, International Review of Business Research Papers, Vol.8.No.4, 112-130 Footer Page 167 of 166 Header Page 168 of 166 160 PH LC Ph lc S biu din nguyờn nhõn khng hong ụng nm 1997 H thng ti chớnh ni a - Tp trung vo ngõn hng - Giỏm sỏt yu kộm - Tõm lý li Dũng nc ngoi chy vo - N mnh giỏ ngoi t v k hn ngn gia tng Phõn b sai lch - u t quỏ mc - Bong búng giỏ ti sn - Tham nhng Tỡnh hỡnh kinh t v mụ - T giỏ hi oỏi thc b nõng giỏ - Thõm ht thng mi gia tng Tỡnh hỡnh ti chớnh - T l n khú ũi cao - Mt cõn xng v k hn gia ti sn n v ti sn cú Footer Page 168 of 166 Chớnh sỏch kinh t v mụ T giỏ hi oỏi c nh Khng hong - Tn cụng u c - Vn chy ngoi - Ngõn hng v doanh nghip phỏ sn Header Page 169 of 166 161 Ph lc Quyt nh s 139/1999/Q-TTg ngy 10/06/1999 ca Th tng Chớnh ph quy nh v t l tham gia ca bờn nc ngoi vo th trng chng khoỏn Vit Nam; Quyt nh s 146/2003/Q-TTg ngy 17/7/2003 cho phộp t chc, cỏ nhõn nc ngoi mua, bỏn c phiu trờn th trng chng khoỏn Vit Nam; Quyt nh s 238/Q-TTg ngy 29/09/2005 v t l tham gia ca bờn nc ngoi vo th trng chng khoỏn Vit Nam;Quyt nh s 121/2008/Q-BTC v vic ban hnh quy ch hot ng ca nh u t nc ngoi trờn th trng chng khoỏn Vit Nam; Quyt nh s 55/2009/Q-TTg ngy 15/4/2009 quy nh t l tham gia ca nh u t nc ngoi trờn th trng chng khoỏn VitNam;Thụng t 213/2012hng dn hot ng ca nh u t nc ngoi trờn th trng chng khoỏn Vit Nam; Ngh nh s 60/2015/N-CP sa i, b sung mt s iu ca Ngh nh s 58/2012/N-CP ngy 20 thỏng nm 2012 ca Chớnh ph quy nh chi tit v hng dn thi hnh mt s iu ca Lut Chng khoỏn v Lut sa i, b sung mt s iu ca Lut Chngkhoỏn. Footer Page 169 of 166 Header Page 170 of 166 162 Ph lc Thay i cỏc bn phỏp lut i vi qun lý vay n nc ngoi Hot ng vay v tr n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam c qun lý thụng qua cỏc bn phỏp lut sau: Ngh nh 58/CP ngy 30/08/1993; Ngh nh s 90/1998/N-CP ngy 07/11/1998; Ngh nh s 134/2005/N-CP ngy 01/11/2005 ca Th tng Chớnh ph ban hnh v Quy ch vay v tr n nc ngoi; Lut qun lý n cụng cú hiu lc t ngy 17/06/2009; v gn õy nht l Ngh nh s 129/2013/N-CP ca Th tng Chớnh ph ban hnh v qun lý vay, tr n nc ngoi ca doanh nghip khụng c Chớnh ph bo lónh S thay i chớnh sỏch qun lý Nh nc i vi hot ng vay v tr n nc ngoi qua cỏc nm c th hin nh sau: Ngh nh 58/CP ngy 30/08/1993 ca Th tng Chớnh ph quy nh rừ: -Vay nc ngoi bao gm:Vay nc ngoi ca Chớnh ph; Vay nc ngoi ca doanh nghip theo hỡnh thc t vay, t tr (bao gm c cỏc khon vay li t ngun vay n nc ngoi ca Chớnh ph hoc ca cỏc Ngõn hng);Vay ca cỏc doanh nghip cú u t nc ngoi. -Chớnh ph qun lý vay v tr n nc ngoi theo k hoch hng nm v nm theo phõn cụng cho cỏc c quan: (i) B Ti chớnh chu trỏch nhim tng hp k hoch tng hn mc vay v tr n nc ngoi ca Chớnh ph; (ii) Ngõn hng Nh nc chu trỏch nhim tng hp k hoch tng hn mc vay v tr n nc ngoi ca cỏc doanh nghip. -Vic thc hin cỏc khon vay nc ngoi theo phng thc t vay, t tr ca cỏc doanh nghip quc doanh cho hot ng sn xut kinh doanh phi m bo cỏc iu kin: (i) c NHNN xỏc nhn khon vay nm k hoch tng hn mc vay nc ngoi c duyt; (ii) Hot ng sn xut kinh doanh v ti chớnh ca doanh nghip ang tỡnh trng bỡnh thng; (iii) Phi cú s ỏnh giỏ, xột duyt phng ỏn v chp thun mc vay ca Ch tch u ban nhõn dõn Tnh, Thnh ph trc thuc Trung ng (i vi doanh nghip a phng) v B trng B ch qun (i vi doanh nghip Trung ng); (iv) c Ngõn hng ng ý bo lónh, Footer Page 170 of 166 Header Page 171 of 166 163 nu bờn cho vay yờu cu phi cú bo lónh. -Doanh nghip thuc cỏc thnh phn kinh t ngoi quc doanh c vay nc ngoi theo phng thc t vay, t tr Trng hp bờn cho vay nc ngoi yờu cu phi cú bo lónh ca Ngõn hng thỡ thc hin theo quy ch bo lónh ca Ngõn hng. Ngh nh s 90/1998/N-CP c ban hnh ngy 07/11/1998 ó cú mt s thay i, b sung so vi Ngh nh 58 nh sau: -Quy ch ó thc hin phõn loi vay nc ngoi theo tiờu thi gian thnh cỏc khon vay ngn hn (cú thi hn n mt nm) v cỏc khon vay trung v di hn (cú thi hn trờn mt nm) Ni dung b sung ny Quy ch rt cú ý ngha c bit hot ng qun lý i vi cỏc dũng vo Dũng vo ngn hn bao gm u t ngn hn v vay ngn hn d gõy tn thng cho nn kinh t hn so vi dũng vo di hn. -Vay nc ngoi c phõn loi theo ch th vay bao gm: Vay nc ngoi ca Chớnh ph v Vay nc ngoi ca doanh nghip (bao gm vay cú bo lónh ca Chớnh ph, vay cú bo lónh ca ngõn hng hoc cỏc hỡnh thc m bo khỏc, vay khụng cú bo lónh hoc bo m) Nh vy hỡnh thc vay nc ngoi ca doanh nghip Ngh nh 90 ó a dng hn so vi Ngh nh 58. -C quan qun lý vay v tr n nc ngoi ó b sung thờm B K hoch v u t v B T phỏp ú B K hoch v u t chu trỏch nhim xõy dng chin lc quc gia v vay v tr n nc ngoi, tng hp k hoch di hn v vay v tr n nc ngoi ca c nc phự hp vi chin lc phỏt trin kinh t xó hi ca quc gia tng thi k v chin lc quc gia v vay v tr n nc ngoi; B T phỏp chu trỏch nhim v nhng phỏp lý cỏc tha thun v vay nc ngoi ca Chớnh ph v ca doanh nghip c Chớnh ph bo lónh hoc tham gia ý kin v cỏc phỏp lý khỏc cú liờn quan theo ngh ca c quan Nh nc hoc doanh nghip. -Qun lý vay v tr n nc ngoi ca doanh nghip cng c phõn theo thi hn cỏc khon vay i vi khon vay nc ngoi trung, di hn (k c bng Footer Page 171 of 166 Header Page 172 of 166 164 hỡnh thc phỏt hnh trỏi phiu quc t) ca cỏc doanh nghip phi nm k hoch tng hn mc hng nm ó c Th tng Chớnh ph phờ duyt v ỏp ng c cỏc iu kin v vay trung v di hn Ngõn hng Nh nc Vit Nam quy nh tng thi k, phi c ng ký vi NHNN Vit Nam v c NHNN Vit Nam xỏc nhn Cỏc khon vay nc ngoi ngn hn ca doanh nghip phi ỏp ng cỏc iu kin v vay n Thng c NHNN Vit Nam quy nh cho tng thi k Thng c NHNN Vit Nam trỡnh Th tng duyt hn mc d n ngn hn hng nm. Ngh nh s 134/2005/N-CP ban hnh ngy 01/11/2005 ó cú mt s thay i nh sau: -Phõn bit n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam thnh n nc ngoi ca khu vc cụng v khu vc t nhõn (trong ú, c th húa thnh n ca DNNN v n ca doanh nghip t nhõn) -Cụng c qun lý n nc ngoi ó c c th húa thụng qua Chin lc n di hn, Chng trỡnh qun lý n trung hn v K hoch hng nm v vay, tr n nc ngoi ca quc gia -Doanh nghip nh nc c trc tip vay nc ngoi theo phng thc t vay, t chu trỏch nhim tr n cho Bờn cho vay theo ỳng cỏc iu kin ó cam kt ti cỏc tha thun vay Cỏc khon vay thng mi nc ngoi ca DNNN nm k hoch tng hn mc vay thng mi hng nm v ỏp ng c cỏc iu kin NHNN quy nh tng thi k, phi c ng ký vi NHNN Trng hp DNNN vay nc ngoi thụng qua phỏt hnh trỏi phiu quc t, phi lp ỏn phỏt hnh, ly ý kin ca B Ti chớnh v NHNN trc trỡnh cp cú thm quyn phờ duyt. -i vi n nc ngoi ca doanh nghip t nhõn, chu s giỏm sỏt, theo dừi ca NHNN Doanh nghip t nhõn phi ng ký khon vay vi NHNN sau ký kt tha thun vay vi nc ngoi i vi cỏc khon vay trung v di hn ca cỏc doanh nghip t nhõn, cỏc ngõn hng nc ch c thc hin rỳt v chuyn tin tr n cho nc khon vay ó c ng ký theo quy nh. Footer Page 172 of 166 Header Page 173 of 166 165 n nm 2009, Quc hi ban hnh Lut qun lý n cụng ú nh ngha n cụng bao gm n Chớnh ph, n c Chớnh ph bo lónh v n chớnh quyn a phng Nh vy cỏc khon vay nc ngoi ca Chớnh ph v c Chớnh ph bo lónh s phi c thc hin theo Lut qun lý n cụng. Ngh nh s 219/2013/N-CP v qun lý vay, tr n nc ngoi ca doanh nghip khụng c Chớnh ph bo lónh quy nh vay n v qun lý vay n ca cỏc doanh nghip l doanh nghip, t chc tớn dng, chi nhỏnh ngõn hng nc ngoi, hp tỏc xó, liờn minh hp tỏc xó Theo ú, nguyờn tc qun lý l t vay, t tr khuụn kh qun lý n nc ngoi ca quc gia, m bo an ton n gii hn c cp cú thm quyn phờ duyt, m bo an ninh ti chớnh quc gia v cõn i v mụ ca nn kinh t Bờn i vay t chu trỏch nhim trc phỏp lut v vic ký v thc hin hp ng vay nc ngoi t vay, t tr Ngõn hng Nh nc Vit Nam thc hin theo dừi tng mc ký vay mi, mc rỳt v tr n ca cỏc khon vay nc ngoi t vay, t tr trung, di hn; xõy dng cỏc gii phỏp phự hp qun lý vay nc ngoi t vay, t tr nhm m bo tng s tin vay rũng nm ca cỏc khon vay nc ngoi trung, di hn nm hn mc vay nc ngoi t vay t tr Th tng Chớnh ph quy nh. Footer Page 173 of 166 Header Page 174 of 166 166 Ph lc Bỏo cỏo xỏc nh tr ti u cho cỏc bin mụ hỡnh Dependent Variable: Y_SA Method: ARDL Date: 11/02/16 Time: 11:16 Sample (adjusted): 2002Q1 2014Q2 Included observations: 50 after adjustments Maximum dependent lags: (Automatic selection) Model selection method: Schwarz criterion (SIC) Dynamic regressors (4 lags, automatic): CAL_SA FD_SA FD2_SA INV_SA OPEN_SA Fixed regressors: C Number of models evalulated: 25000 Selected Model: ARDL(8, 0, 3, 3, 4, 4) Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Y_SA(-1) Y_SA(-2) Y_SA(-3) Y_SA(-4) Y_SA(-5) Y_SA(-6) Y_SA(-7) Y_SA(-8) CAL_SA FD_SA FD_SA(-1) FD_SA(-2) FD_SA(-3) FD2_SA FD2_SA(-1) FD2_SA(-2) FD2_SA(-3) INV_SA INV_SA(-1) INV_SA(-2) INV_SA(-3) INV_SA(-4) OPEN_SA OPEN_SA(-1) OPEN_SA(-2) OPEN_SA(-3) OPEN_SA(-4) C 0.041170 -0.228713 0.661343 -0.543735 -0.580411 -0.219818 -0.333972 -0.481930 0.013439 -0.004330 -0.004230 0.018621 -0.024437 -0.017095 0.022830 -0.056561 0.044590 0.052445 0.063726 0.042318 0.041997 0.057171 0.027829 -0.004418 -0.023139 0.003474 0.027317 0.072817 0.203420 0.209890 0.208543 0.212531 0.236854 0.316588 0.277336 0.263689 0.008394 0.007317 0.010733 0.008057 0.006081 0.007380 0.010408 0.011674 0.007805 0.017606 0.021764 0.019339 0.021665 0.018947 0.007699 0.012791 0.010755 0.012133 0.008901 0.025471 0.202391 -1.089680 3.171258 -2.558382 -2.450501 -0.694337 -1.204213 -1.827643 1.601028 -0.591840 -0.394146 2.311143 -4.018361 -2.316513 2.193454 -4.845173 5.713270 2.978820 2.928100 2.188287 1.938503 3.017416 3.614485 -0.345421 -2.151520 0.286343 3.068891 2.858837 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.919091 0.819793 0.006939 0.001059 198.1069 9.255908 0.000001 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat *Note: p-values and any subsequent tests not account for model selection Footer Page 174 of 166 Prob.* 0.8415 0.2876 0.0044 0.0179 0.0227 0.4947 0.2413 0.0812 0.1236 0.5600 0.6973 0.0306 0.0006 0.0302 0.0391 0.0001 0.0000 0.0069 0.0078 0.0396 0.0655 0.0063 0.0015 0.7331 0.0427 0.7773 0.0056 0.0091 0.067413 0.016346 -6.804278 -5.733545 -6.396536 1.709876 Header Page 175 of 166 167 Ph lc Bỏo cỏo xỏc nh tr ti u cho cỏc bin mụ hỡnh Dependent Variable: Y_SA Method: ARDL Date: 11/02/16 Time: 11:19 Sample (adjusted): 2002Q1 2014Q2 Included observations: 50 after adjustments Maximum dependent lags: (Automatic selection) Model selection method: Schwarz criterion (SIC) Dynamic regressors (4 lags, automatic): FD_SA FD2_SA CAL2_SA INV_SA OPEN_SA Fixed regressors: C Number of models evalulated: 25000 Selected Model: ARDL(8, 3, 3, 0, 4, 4) Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Y_SA(-1) Y_SA(-2) Y_SA(-3) Y_SA(-4) Y_SA(-5) Y_SA(-6) Y_SA(-7) Y_SA(-8) FD_SA FD_SA(-1) FD_SA(-2) FD_SA(-3) FD2_SA FD2_SA(-1) FD2_SA(-2) FD2_SA(-3) CAL2_SA INV_SA INV_SA(-1) INV_SA(-2) INV_SA(-3) INV_SA(-4) OPEN_SA OPEN_SA(-1) OPEN_SA(-2) OPEN_SA(-3) OPEN_SA(-4) C 0.058194 -0.235559 0.694917 -0.562554 -0.519114 -0.427576 -0.315918 -0.611596 -0.007202 -0.004601 0.018732 -0.021397 -0.018417 0.025502 -0.059840 0.045078 0.033394 0.053753 0.066343 0.051796 0.045739 0.058297 0.025334 -0.003875 -0.019030 -0.001188 0.032426 0.081448 0.195747 0.204478 0.203607 0.207661 0.231022 0.329960 0.270523 0.276315 0.006450 0.010361 0.007785 0.005295 0.007255 0.010404 0.011618 0.007589 0.016900 0.017179 0.021312 0.018467 0.020644 0.018029 0.007751 0.012323 0.010219 0.012110 0.009412 0.026023 0.297291 -1.152001 3.413031 -2.709001 -2.247036 -1.295844 -1.167803 -2.213405 -1.116581 -0.444122 2.406191 -4.040884 -2.538482 2.451225 -5.150441 5.939873 1.976015 3.129045 3.112877 2.804811 2.215588 3.233428 3.268328 -0.314452 -1.862187 -0.098084 3.445113 3.129888 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.923280 0.829124 0.006757 0.001004 199.4361 9.805840 0.000000 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat *Note: p-values and any subsequent tests not account for model selection Footer Page 175 of 166 Prob.* 0.7690 0.2617 0.0025 0.0128 0.0350 0.2085 0.2554 0.0375 0.2762 0.6613 0.0250 0.0005 0.0187 0.0226 0.0000 0.0000 0.0608 0.0049 0.0051 0.0103 0.0374 0.0038 0.0035 0.7561 0.0760 0.9228 0.0023 0.0049 0.067413 0.016346 -6.857446 -5.786713 -6.449705 1.577913 ... nghiên cứu tác động tự hóa tài khoản vốn tới tăng trưởng kinh tế Chương 2: Thực trạng tự hóa tài khoản vốn Việt Nam Chương 3: Tác động tự hóa tài khoản vốn tới tăng trưởng kinh tế Việt Nam Chương... cứu tác động tự hóa tài khoản vốn tới tăng trưởng kinh tế phù hợp với điều kiện Việt Nam - Luận án đánh giá mức độ tự hóa tài khoản vốn, tác động tự hóa tài khoản vốn tới tăng trưởng kinh tế Việt. .. đẩy tác động tích cực tự hóa tài khoản vốn tới tăng trưởng kinh tế Việt Nam Đối tượng nghiên cứu Đối tượng nghiên cứu luận án tự hóa tài khoản vốn tác động tự hóa tài khoản vốn tới tăng trưởng kinh