Phát triển giao dịch phái sinh hàng hóa phi tài chính tại Việt Nam

Header Page of 258 Bễ GIAO DUC V A O TAO NGN HA NG NHA NC VIấT NAM TRNG AI HOC NGN HA NG THA NH PHễ Hễ CHI MINH NGUYN PHC KINH KHA PHT TRIN GIAO DCH PHI SINH HNG HểA PHI TI CHNH TI VIT NAM TểM TT LUN N TIN S KINH T TP Hễ CHI MINH NM 2015 Footer Page of 258 Header Page of 258 M U Lý nghiờn cu i vi giao dch giao hng húa, bn ri ro c bn m cỏc thng nhõn cú th gp phi l ri ro v giỏ, ri ro ti, ri ro v cht lng hng húa c giao v ri ro tớn dng thng mi, ú, ri ro v giỏ l ri ro quan trng nht (Geman, H., 2005) Giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa thụng qua sn giao dch c ỏnh giỏ l mt nhng gii phỏp hiu qu hn ch cỏc ri ro ny Trong ú, vi c ch xỏc nh giỏ thụng qua giao dch t ng cng nh cung cp cỏc hp ng phỏi sinh qun tr ri ro v giỏ, phỏi sinh hng húa thụng qua sn giao dch gúp phn hiu qu cho cỏc nh sn xut kim soỏt bin ng giỏ Ngoi ra, vi quy nh v vic chun húa hng húa giao dch trờn sn, ri ro v cht lng hng húa cng c hn ch ỏng k Vit Nam l mt quc gia nụng nghip vi nhiu nụng phm cú thng hiu v sn lng xut khu cao trờn th trng th gii nh go, h tiờu, cao su v c phờ Sn lng cỏc mt hng nụng sn xut khu Vit Nam cú tng trng n tng thi gian va qua, nhiờn, cũn tim n nhiu ri ro cho cỏc nh xut khu Vit Nam, c bit l nụng dõn Nhu cu cn thit l phi t chc th trng kinh doanh chuyờn nghip hn, cú t chc v ngun lut iu chnh c th í tng v sn giao dch hng húa ó hỡnh thnh ti Vit Nam t nm 2002 vi s i ca Sn giao dch ht iu Tp HCM, sau ú l sn giao dch thy sn Cn Gi, sn giao dch c phờ Buụn Mờ Thut (BCEC), Sn giao dch Sacom STE, sn giao dch hng hoỏ Vit Nam (VNX) v gn õy nht l sn giao dch hng hoỏ Info (Info comex) c B Cụng Thng cp phộp thnh lp vo nm 2013 Tuy nhiờn, hot ng ca cỏc sn giao dch núi trờn cũn ht sc hn ch v cha thu hỳt c s quan tõm cng nh tham gia ca ngi nụng dõn (Nguyn Th Mai Chi, 2010) Trong ú, hot ng ca cỏc sn giao dch hng húa trờn th gii c bit l ti M din ht sc sụi ni v ngoi vic cung cp mt gii phỏp bo him ri ro v giỏ cho cỏc bờn tham gia, phỏi sinh hng húa cũn l mt kờnh u t ngy cng c quan tõm a dng húa danh mc (Basu, P and Gavin, W.T 2010) T thc trng hot ng khụng hiu qu ca cỏc sn giao dch hng húa hin ti Vit Nam ngi dõn sn xut li phi chu rt nhiu ri ro giao dch giao hng húa cựng vi s phỏt trin ca giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa trờn th gii thi gian qua, ti "Phỏt trin giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa phi ti chớnh ti Vit Nam" c thc hin vi mc ớch ỏnh giỏ nhng mt t c, phỏt hin nhng tn ti v nguyờn nhõn ca nhng tn ti nhm xut nhng gii phỏp nhm phỏt trin giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa ti Vit Nam Lun ỏn cng xem xột iu kin hỡnh thnh ca giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa phi ti chớnh ti Vit Nam Mc ớch cui cựng l phỏt trin giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa phi ti chớnh nhm cung cp mt kờnh xỏc nh giỏ mi, hn ch ri ro bin ng giỏ hng húa, to mt kờnh u t mi v gúp phn xut kin ngh nhm hon thin cỏc chớnh sỏch cú liờn quan 2.Tng quan cỏc cụng trỡnh nghiờn cu cú liờn quan 2.1 Nhng nghiờn cu trờn th gii: Hot ng phỏi sinh hng húa khụng phi l ti mi trờn th gii, cú nhiu nghiờn cu phỏt trin giao dch ny ti cỏc nc ang phỏt trin, nhng cha cú mt ti nghiờn cu c th v th trng Vit Nam 2.2 Nhng nghiờn cu nc: thụng qua ngun d liu ca i hc Ngõn hng Tp.HCM, i hc kinh t Tp.HCM, cỏc chuyờn ngnh, ó cú nhng bi vit Footer Page of 258 Header Page of 258 gii quyt nhng khớa cnh riờng bit ca hot ng phỏi sinh ca mt hoc mt nhúm mt hng nhng cha núi ht c tng th v nhng ca thc trng Cng cú nhng nghiờn cu, bi vit v hot ng phỏi sinh nhng cha tht s i sõu vo gii quyt thc trng ca im mi ca ti Nh vy cú th thy, mc dự ó cú rt nhiu nghiờn cu trờn th gii phõn tớch iu kin phỏt trin cng nh c ch hot ng ca giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa, nhiờn, s lng cỏc nghiờn cu Vit Nam v ti ny khỏ khiờm tn Hn na, cỏc nghiờn cu ch dng li vic nờu lờn thc trng ca tng sn giao dch c th, cha c h thng húa v phõn tớch cũn mang tớnh ch quan cao ti "Phỏt trin giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa phi ti chớnh ti Vit Nam" s tng hp c s lý thuyt liờn quan n giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa phi ti chớnh, lm ni bt c im riờng bit ca th trng ny Ngoi ra, thc trng ca giao dch ny s c phõn tớch c th i vi tng giao dch khỏc nhau, tng sn giao dch thụng qua cỏc bng kho sỏt t phớa bờn cung cp sn phm, bờn mua sn phm v phng chuyờn gia Cỏc tn ti ca th trng s c phõn tớch mt cỏch khỏch quan, t gc nhỡn ca cỏc ch th tham gia th trng Ngoi ra, mụ hỡnh SWOT s c dng ỏnh giỏ v trớ hin ti ca giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa ti Vit Nam, c hi v thỏch thc T ú, mt s gii phỏp s c tỏc gi xut lm iu kin phỏt trin giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa ti Vit Nam Nhc im ca ti l cha ng dng c mụ hỡnh nh lng vo nghiờn cu, nguyờn nhõn ch yu xut phỏt t hn ch vic tip cn d liu Hn ch ny s lm cho kt lun ca ti thiu bng chng thc nghim, lm gim tớnh tin cy ca kt qu Tuy nhiờn, xột thy s cn thit ca giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa ti Vit Nam, c bit l ng gc nhỡn ca nh cung cp sn phm (ngi nụng dõn), vỡ th, tỏc gi quyt nh thc hin nghiờn cu ny lm c s cho vic phỏt trin giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa ti Vit Nam cng nh lm tin cho cỏc nghiờn cu tip sau v ti ny Mc tiờu 4.1 Mc tiờu nghiờn cu ca lun ỏn l nhm tỡm gii phỏp phỏt trin giao dch phỏi sinh hng hoỏ phi ti chớnh ti Vit Nam 4.2 Mc ớch nghiờn cu ca lun ỏn l thụng qua s phỏt trin ca giao dch phỏi sinh hng hoỏ phi ti chớnh ti Vit Nam s to nhng cụng c tt bo him bin ng giỏ hng hoỏ, to mt kờnh xỏc nh thụng tin giỏ mi, nõng cao cht lng hng hoỏ theo chun quc t v to nờn mt kờnh u t mi hin i Phng phỏp nghiờn cu Phng phỏp nghiờn cu chớnh ca lun ỏn l phng phỏp nghiờn cu nh tớnh, bao gm tng hp cỏc phng phỏp nghiờn cu sau õy: a Tng hp cỏc c s lý lun v hng húa, giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa v phỏt trin giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa t kt qu cỏc cụng trỡnh nghiờn cu, chuyờn ngnh, cỏc cụng b v ý kin chuyờn gia b Thng kờ, phõn tớch cỏc s liu phn ỏnh thc trng cỏc iu kin phỏt trin phỏi sinh hng húa: iu kin v hng húa, iu kin phỏp lý, iu kin kinh t, iu kin k thut Phõn tớch thc trng giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa ti cỏc sn giao dch hng húa Footer Page of 258 Header Page of 258 c So sỏnh kt qu hot ng phỏi sinh hng hoỏ qua cỏc nm ca cỏc sn giao dch hng húa ti Vit Nam; so sỏnh thc trng cỏc iu kin phỏt trin giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa d Phõn tớch giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa ti Brazil v khng hong ngõn hng Barings v rỳt nhng bi hc kinh nghim e Kho sỏt cỏc i tng cú liờn quan trc tip n giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa v cỏc chuyờn gia ti chớnh phỏi sinh Nghiờn cu sinh thc hin bng kho sỏt: kho sỏt ngi trng c phờ ti Bo Lc, kho sỏt nhõn viờn ngõn hng v nhõn viờn cỏc sn giao dch hng húa ti Vit Nam v bng kho sỏt cỏc chuyờn gia ti chớnh phỏi sinh f Phng nhng ngi quan trng liờn quan trc tip n trin khai, thc hin, iu hnh v qun lý giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa g S dng SWOT ỏnh giỏ thc trng giao dch phỏi sinh hng hoỏ ti Vit Nam h Suy lun vt bin chng: t c s lý lun v nhng thc trng v giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa ti Vit Nam, nghiờn cu sinh s dng bin phỏp suy lun bin chng xỏc nh cỏc tn ti v nguyờn nhõn ca nhng tn ti i tng v phm vi nghiờn cu 6.1 i tng nghiờn cu ca lun ỏn l cụng c phỏi sinh hng hoỏ phi ti chớnh, giao dch phỏi sinh hng hoỏ phi ti chớnh ti Vit Nam, th trng phỏi sinh hng hoỏ phi ti chớnh ti Vit Nam 6.2 Phm vi nghiờn cu v thi gian t nm 2002 n nm 2013, tựy thuc tỡnh hỡnh cỏc ch th cú liờn quan n i tng nghiờn cu m thi gian c dng phự hp Phm vi nghiờn cu v khụng gian l Vit Nam v bi hc t mt s quc gia Kt cu lun ỏn Ngoi phn m u v kt lun, lun ỏn c kt cu thnh chng: Chng 1: Lý lun v phỏt trin giao dch phỏi sinh hng hoỏ phi ti chớnh Chng 2: Thc trng giao dch phỏi sinh hng hoỏ phi ti chớnh ti Vit Nam Chng 3:Gii phỏp phỏt trin giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa phi ti chớnh ti Vit Nam u mi chng cú gii thiu chng, sau mi chng cú kt lun chng, ht ba chng cú kt lun lun ỏn Lun ỏn cng th hin cỏc ngun ti liu tham kho v cỏc ph lc cú liờn quan CHNG 1: Lí LUN V PHT TRIN GIAO DCH PHI SINH HNG HểA PHI TI CHNH GII THIU CHNG Chng trỡnh by c s lý thuyt v hng húa, giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa v phỏt trin giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa Trong ú s gii thiu s hỡnh thnh ca th trng, cỏc hỡnh thc giao dch, h thng t chc, c trng giao dch, quy trỡnh giao dch, li ớch v ri ro gia tng ca giao dch Ngoi ra, cỏc iu kin phỏt trin giao dch phỏi sinh phi ti chớnh cng c phõn tớch c th chng ny Cui cựng, chng gii thiu hai sn giao dch hng húa ln trờn th gii bao gm sn giao dch LIFFE ca Anh v sn giao dch NYBOT ca M bờn cnh phõn tớch mụ hỡnh t chc v kinh doanh phỏi sinh hng húa ti Brazil v khng hong ngõn hng Barings, t ú rỳt bi hc kinh nghim cho Vit Nam Footer Page of 258 Header Page of 258 1.1 HNG HểA PHI TI CHNH 1.1.1 Khỏi nim hng hoỏ phi ti chớnh 1.1.2 Thc cht ca hng húa phi ti chớnh 1.1.3 Ri ro giao dch hng hoỏ phi ti chớnh 1.2 GIAO DCH PHI SINH HNG HO PHI TI CHNH 1.2.1 Phõn bit giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa v phỏi sinh ti chớnh 1.2.2 Cỏc hỡnh thc giao dch phỏi sinh hng hoỏ phi ti chớnh 1.2.2.1 Giao dch k hn Giao dch k hn hng hoỏ l nhng giao dch tha thun mua hoc bỏn mt loi hng húa mt thi im xỏc nh tng lai vi mc giỏ nht nh ó tha thun t trc, cỏc tha thun ny c thc hin trờn th trng OTC (Hull, 2009) Giao dch k hn thng c s dng phũng nga ri ro bin ng giỏ hng húa C th, ngi sn xut hng húa nu lo ngi giỏ hng húa s gim tng lai s ký hp ng bỏn k hn cht giỏ cú li cho mỡnh, ngi mua hng húa nu lo ngi giỏ c hng húa tng tng lai s ký hp ng mua k hn cht giỏ mua cú li Ri ro ln nht giao dch k hn hng húa l khụng m bo cỏc bờn cú liờn quan cú kh nng thc hin hp ng vo ngy ỏo hn, ngi sn xut cú th khụng hng bỏn hoc hng húa khụng ỳng cht lng nh tha thun, ngi mua hp ng k hn cú th khụng kh nng ti chớnh thc hin hp ng 1.2.2.2 Giao dch tng lai Giao dch tng lai hng hoỏ l s cam kt gia bờn mua v bờn bỏn trờn s giao dch trung cú t chc mua, bỏn mt loi hng húa no ú theo mt hp ng tng lai mt mc giỏ c xỏc nh trc hin ti nhng c thc hin vo mt thi im tng lai (Hull, 2005) Hp ng tng lai cú th dựng phũng nga ri ro bin ng giỏ hng húa hoc s dng hp ng tng lai u c Th trng tng lai c bit thu hỳt cỏc nh u t cú hai c im sau: c im th nht l tớnh ũn by Ch cn m bo mc ký qu ban u l nh kinh doanh cú th giao dch c mt hp ng tng lai vi giỏ tr cao hn nhiu ln Nu d bỏo ỳng v s bin ng ca giỏ hng húa thỡ nh kinh doanh s thu c li nhun v t l li nhun rt cao so vi s tin ký qu ban u c im th hai l tớnh khon cao Nh ó núi phn trờn, nh kinh doanh cú th thỏo g ngha v thc hin hp ng d dng V cng hai c trng ny nờn hu ht cỏc giao dch tng lai u nhm mc ớch u c, phỏt trin giao dch ny ch yu l nhm to nờn mt kờnh u t hp dn cho th trng 1.2.2.3 Giao dch quyn chn Theo Hull (2005) giao dch quyn chn hng hoỏ l mt giao dch ú cho phộp ngi mua hp ng cú quyn mua hoc bỏn hng hoỏ ti giỏ c nh ó tha thun trc ti mt thi im nht nh tng lai Tuy nhiờn, tựy vo thc t dng quyn chn kiu Chõu u hay quyn chn kiu M m ngy giao dch quyn chn cú th c thc hin vo ngy ỏo hn hoc sut quỏ trỡnh tn ti ca hp ng quyn chn Quyn chn bao gm quyn chn mua v quyn chn bỏn Quyn chn hng hoỏ ch yu c dựng bo him ri ro bin ng giỏ hng húa Ngi sn xut s ký hp ng mua quyn chn bỏn hng húa, tc l ngi sn xut hng húa cú quyn bỏn hoc khụng bỏn hng húa vo ngy ỏo hn Khi ú nu giỏ hng húa vo ngy ỏo hn gim hn giỏ thc hin quyn chn, ngi sn xut s thc hin hp Footer Page of 258 Header Page of 258 ng quyn chn, tc l bỏn theo giỏ thc hin Trng hp giỏ hng húa tng so vi giỏ thc hin quyn chn, ngi sn xut s khụng thc hin hp ng quyn chn m s bỏn hng húa trờn th trng giao vi giỏ tt hn Nh vy cú th thy ngi sn xut bo him c ri ro giỏ hng húa gim m thu c li ớch giỏ hng húa tng õy chớnh l im ni bt ca giao dch ny so vi giao dch k hn v tng lai 1.2.3 H thng giao dch phỏi sinh hng hoỏ phi ti chớnh 1.2.3.1 Sn giao dch Sn giao dch l ni trung cỏc iu kin vt cht k thut cho vic thc hin khp lnh giao dch gia ngi mua v ngi bỏn, ni ngi mua v ngi bỏn trung gi giao dch tin hnh giao dch i vi cỏch giao dch truyn thng hoc ni trung cỏc lnh mua v bỏn i vi cỏc giao dch hin i 1.2.3.2 Ngi mụi gii Thc hin chc nng mụi gii, cú th l mụi gii ca ngi bỏn, hoc mụi gii ca ngi mua, hoc mụi gii sn giao dch Mụi gii ca ngi mua hoc ngi bỏn ph bin thụng tin th trng, hng dn v chuyn cỏc lnh mua v bỏn ca ngi kinh doanh v sn giao dch Nh mụi gii ti sn s tin hnh u giỏ m vi cỏc nh mụi gii ti sn khỏc 1.2.3.3 Nh bo him Nh bo him tham gia giao dch nhm mc ớch bo him bin ng giỏ hng húa Nh bo him l nhng ngi sn xut hoc kinh doanh hng húa, hot ng kinh doanh ca mỡnh, nh bo him ang i din vi ri ro bin ng giỏ hng húa nờn cú nhu cu bo him 1.2.3.4 Nh u t Gm nhng nh u t t ti sn hoc nhng nh u t ngoi sn, u t cho chớnh bn thõn mỡnh Machael Chiu (2010) cho rng nh u t c gng kim li nhun bng cỏch mua hp ng ti mt mc giỏ v bỏn mt mc giỏ cao hn, cú th cựng thi im hoc cỏc thi im khỏc 1.2.3.5 Trung tõm toỏn bự tr Trung tõm toỏn bự tr thụng thng thuc s hu ca s giao dch Trung tõm úng vai trũ nh l phớa i tỏc ca tt c cỏc bờn tham gia hp ng tng lai Mt trung tõm toỏn bự tr ca s giao dch bo m cho c hai bờn mua v bỏn rng cỏc lnh mua v bỏn sau c i chiu chc chn s c thc hin 1.2.3.6 Cụng ty toỏn thnh viờn Cỏc cụng ty toỏn thnh viờn c lp h tr trung tõm toỏn bự tr v mt ti chớnh, cỏc cụng ty ny cng thuc s giao dch Mun l mt cụng ty toỏn thnh viờn trc ht phi l hi viờn ca s giao dch, k n phi ỏp ng yờu cu ca trung tõm toỏn bự tr t Cỏc cụng ty ny phi trỡ ti khon ký qu vi trung tõm toỏn bự tr v phi ỏp ng yờu cu v kh nng ti chớnh 1.2.3.7 Cụng ty giỏm nh cht lng Cụng ty giỏm nh cht lng l n v kim tra c im ca sn phm, hng húa xem cú phự hp vi thụng s v tiờu chun k thut Giỏm nh cht lng cú ngha l kim tra sn phm theo h thng chun ca cỏc quc gia trao i thng mi v mua bỏn hng húa vi nhau, h thng chun ca cỏc quc gia thng mi v tiờu chun chung c th gii cụng nhn Footer Page of 258 Header Page of 258 1.2.3.8 Ngõn hng thng mi Ngõn hng thng mi úng vai trũ quan trng giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa Theo cỏc chuyờn gia ngõn hng, gia S Giao dch hng húa v h thng ngõn hng thng mi cú mi quan h tng h, ú, S Giao dch hng húa n nh minh bch s giỳp cho h thng ngõn hng thng mi a dng húa sn phm v kinh doanh hiu qu, an ton; ng thi, h thng ngõn hng thng mi phỏt trin, s cng c cho S Giao dch hng húa m bo an ton h thng, tng trng mnh v quy mụ (Nguyn Hoi, 2011) 1.2.3.9 H thng kho bói Trong giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa, h thng kho bói úng mt vai trũ rt quan trng H thng kho bói l ni cỏc bờn ký gi hng húa giao dch, sau hng húa ó c kim nh cht lng v s lng 1.2.4 c trng giao dch trung trờn sn 1.2.4.1 Chun hoỏ v sn phm giao dch Hull (2005) núi rng giao dch tng lai hoc quyn chn giao dch trung trờn sn c chun hoỏ v: hng hoỏ, quy mụ hp ng, thỏng giao hng, cỏch yt giỏ, mc bin ng giỏ ti thiu, ngy giao dch cui cựng, gi giao dch, bin ng giỏ mi ngy 1.2.4.2 Giao dch trung ti sn giao dch Hull (2005) cho rng giao dch trung ti sn l mt c trng ni bt nht ca loi hỡnh hp ng tng lai v mt s hp ng quyn chn Vic giao dch trung nh vy giỳp cho giao dch c tin hnh nhanh chúng, bi vỡ cú sn giao dch thỡ nhng lnh mua v bỏn c khp lnh trung 1.2.4.3 Tuõn th quy trỡnh toỏn lói l hng ngy Theo Hull (2005) giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa trung trờn sn, ngi mua v ngi bỏn tham gia s phi ng kớ mt ti khon giao dch ti Trung tõm toỏn bự tr, gi l ti khon ký qu Vo cui mi phiờn giao dch, Trung tõm toỏn bự tr ca S giao dch tớnh toỏn lói, l trờn ti khon giao dch ca khỏch hng 1.2.4 Ngha v hp ng c m bo Chance, D.M & Brooks, R (2010) núi rng giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa trung trờn sn, ngha v thc hin hp ng ca ngi mua v ngi bỏn c m bo thc hin bi Trung tõm toỏn bự tr iu ny cho thy s khỏc bit rt ln so vi giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa khụng trung 1.2.4.5 Kt thỳc ngha v hp ng d dng Hull (2005) cho rng khỏch hng tham gia hp ng tng lai hng húa cú th c thỏo g ngha v hp ng mt cỏch d dng Bt c lỳc no khỏch hng cng cú th tt toỏn hp ng bng vic t lnh mua hoc bỏn i ng cú cựng s lng hng hoỏ ó ký v ngy giao hng vi hp ng m h ang mun tt toỏn 1.2.5 Quy trỡnh giao dch trung qua sn giao dch Hull (2005) cho rng giao dch phỏi sinh trung qua sn giao dch phi theo mt quy trỡnh c th c quy nh v t chc thc hin bi sn giao dch 1.2.6 Li ớch gia tng ca giao dch phỏi sinh hng hoỏ 1.2.6.1 i vi ch th tham gia th trng Chance, D.M & Brooks, R (2010) cho rng giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa giỳp cho ngi sn xut, doanh nghip kinh doanh hng húa kim soỏt v hn ch ri ro bin Footer Page of 258 Header Page of 258 ng giỏ hng húa nh ú cú th ch ng hn kinh doanh cú c s giỏ hng húa ký kt hp ng giao khỏc 1.2.6.2 i vi vai trũ qun lý ca Nh nc Rutten, L and Youssel, F (2007) chia s s hỡnh thnh v phỏt trin hp ng phỏi sinh gúp phn n nh giỏ c cho th trng cỏc ti sn c s, thỳc y nn kinh t tng trng v phỏt trin bn vng ó phũng nga, hn ch n mc thp nht cỏc hu qu cỏc bin ng th trng gõy Vic hỡnh thnh v phỏt trin ca th trng cỏc cụng c phỏi sinh s lm cho giỏ c hng húa phn ỏnh ỳng cung cu th trng 1.2.6.3 i vi th trng hng húa Vic trin khai cỏc giao dch phỏi sinh trờn th trng hng húa gúp phn lm a dng v phong phỳ thờm sn phm dch v ca th trng ti chớnh 1.2.7 Ri ro gia tng ca giao dch phỏi sinh hng hoỏ 1.2.7.1 Ri ro tớnh thu trờn lói Chớnh sỏch tớnh thu trờn lói thu c t nghip v phỏi sinh hng húa, iu ny s nh hng n kt qu kinh doanh v tõm lý ca ngi tham gia th trng Vỡ tham gia giao dch ny, cú lỳc t li nhun v bo h c giỏ nu phỏn oỏn xu hng giỏ tt, nhng cng cú th thua l hoc mt phớ phỏn oỏn sai 1.2.7.2 Ri ro hch toỏn cỏc giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa Hin nay, hch toỏn k toỏn cỏc giao dch phỏi sinh ch chỳ trng ti phn lói hoc l thc t phỏt sinh, phn lói hoc l d kin cha phỏt sinh thỡ cha c quan tõm 1.2.7.3 Li dng cỏc giao dch trờn th trng phỏi sinh hng húa u c Osorio, N (2004) cho rng vic s dng hp ng tng lai hin ch yu l u c, nờn cỏc quyt nh mua hay bỏn ch cm tớnh, qua cỏc ngun thụng tin dn dt v mang tớnh by n iu ny rt nguy him cho nh u t, nht l nh u t cha c trang b tt v kin thc v kinh nghim 1.3 PHT TRIN GIAO DCH PHI SINH HNG HểA PHI TI CHNH 1.3.1 Khỏi nim Bựi Thy Nam (2010) cho rng phỏt trin giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa phi ti chớnh l quỏ trỡnh a dn nhng cụng c ti chớnh phỏi sinh vo giao dch trờn th trng hng húa nhm phũng nga ri ro bin ng giỏ hng húa, tỡm kim li nhun cho cỏc nh u t v song song ú l vic tng trng quy mụ giao dch thụng qua s lng hp ng giao dch, giỏ tr hp ng, s lng thnh viờn tham gia vo th trng tng lờnTrờn c s ú cng to iu kin a dng húa sn phm trờn th trng phỏi sinh hng húa ỏp ng nhu cu u t ca xó hi v ca nn kinh t 1.3.2 Tiờu ỏnh giỏ phỏt trin giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa 1.3.2.1 Tiờu nh tớnh S phỏt trin giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa cú th c ỏnh giỏ thụng qua cỏc tiờu nh tớnh nh: s hi lũng ca nh u t, kt qu em li cho th trng hng húa v s úng gúp ca giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa thụng qua cỏc khon thu thu v phớ cho ngõn sỏch nh nc 1.3.2.2 Tiờu nh lng Bờn cnh cỏc ch tiờu nh tớnh, s phỏt trin ca giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa cũn c o lng thụng qua cỏc ch tiờu nh lng nh: s lng cụng c phỏi sinh c ỏp dng trờn th trng phỏi sinh hng húa, s lng hng húa c s c giao Footer Page of 258 Header Page of 258 dch trờn th trng, s thnh viờn tham gia giao dch trờn th trng, doanh s giao dch v cỏc khon phớ dch v thu c Cỏc ch tiờu nh lng cú giỏ tr cng cao cng phn ỏnh s phỏt trin ca giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa 1.3.3 iu kin chớnh phỏt trin giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa 1.3.3.1 iu kin hng hoỏ Shim, E (2006) cho rng th trng hng húa c s phỏt trin y l nn tng cho giao dch phỏi sinh tn ti v phỏt trin 1.3.3.2 iu kin phỏp lý hỡnh thnh v phỏt trin giao dch phỏi sinh vi cỏc sn phm khỏc thỡ cn phi thỳc y v hon thin cỏc th ch th trng cho phự hp Unctad (1997) cho rng mt iu kin nn tng quan trng l cn cú h thng bn phỏp lut, quy nh rừ rng v iu kin thnh lp, tham gia v hot ng ca giao dch phỏi sinh 1.3.3.3 iu kin kinh t, ti chớnh iu kin kinh t, ti chớnh c phn ỏnh qua cỏc s liu v mụ v vi mụ ca nn kinh t, cỏc s liu phn ỏnh s hi nhp kinh t quc t, cỏc s liu cho thy thc trng ca h thng ngõn hng thng mi v cỏc chớnh sỏch phỏt trin kinh t ca t nc S liu v mụ v vi mụ ca nn kinh t tt phn ỏnh sc khe nn kinh t ang n nh v sn sng ún nhn cỏc giao dch mi phỏt trin v hin i nh giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa v ngc li 1.3.3.4 iu kin k thut Cn xõy dng c hp ng giao dch phỏi sinh ỳng tiờu chun cho cỏc giao dch trung qua sn Theo ú, nhng iu kin chun ca hp ng phi bao gm cỏc ni dung: quy mụ hp ng; n v yt giỏ; biờn giao ng giỏ ti thiu; chng loi sn phm; thi gian giao dch; thi gian toỏn; ngy giao dch cui cựng 1.4 GII THIU SN GIAO DCH LIFFE V NYBOT 1.4.1 Sn giao dch LIFFE, nc Anh 1.4.2 Sn giao dch NYBOT, nc M 1.5 BI HC KINH NGHIM TRONG T CHC V GIAO DCH PHI SINH HNG HO 1.5.1 Giao dch phỏi sinh hng hoỏ ti Brazil 1.5.1.1 Gii thiu v ngnh nụng nghip Brazil 1.5.1.2Gii thiu quỏ trỡnh hỡnh thnh v phỏt trin ca trung tõm giao dch Brazil Bolsa de Mercadorias e Futuros (BM&F) 1.5.1.3 Hp ng phỏi sinh c phờ 1.5.1.4 Bi hc kinh nghim cho Vit Nam Th nht l mi liờn kt cht ch gia chớnh sỏch ca chớnh ph v chin lc kinh doanh ca BM&F Th hai l s liờn kt gia sn giao dch hng húa v ngõn hng Th ba l khụng ngng phỏt trin cỏc hot ng hp tỏc v liờn kt quc t nhm m rng th trng Th t, hot ng ca y ban t sn phm, cu ni gia sn giao dch v nhng thnh viờn tham gia th trng cng l mt chin lc tt cho s phỏt trin bn vng Th nm l vic hp nht th trng hng húa vt cht ni a 1.5.2 Khng hong ngõn hng Barings Bi hc t trng thỏi m quỏ ln 1.5.2.1 Din bin s sp 1.5.2.2 Tỏc ng ca s sp 1.5.2.3 Nguyờn nhõn sp di gúc ri ro ca sn phm phỏi sinh Footer Page of 258 Header Page 10 of 258 1.5.2.4 Bi hc kinh nghim cho Vit Nam S sp ca ngõn hng Barings l mt bi hc tiờu biu cho cỏc NHTM Vit Nam cung cp cỏc sn phm phỏi sinh (Schinasi 1998) cho rng trờn th trng khỏch hng, ngoi vic cung cp cỏc sn phm phỏi sinh phc v cho khỏch hng ca mỡnh, cũn phi tỡm giao dch i ng bo him trng thỏi an ton Vic tuõn th cỏc quy nh kim soỏt ri ro trng thỏi m cho cỏc ngõn hng Vit Nam rt quan trng phỏt trin bn vng KT LUN CHNG Chng trỡnh by c s lý lun v hng hoỏ, phỏi sinh hng hoỏ, phỏt trin phỏi sinh hng húa, cỏc iu kin phỏt trin giao dch phỏi sinh hng hoỏ v mt s bi hc kinh nghim Chng cng gii thiu s lc hai sn giao dch LIFFE v NYBOT v bi hc kinh nghim t Brazil õy l nhng bi hc rt quan trng, mt dự c im trng trt, sn xut v th trng ca Brazil khụng hon ton phự hp vi Vit Nam nhng õy l th trng phỏi sinh hng hoỏ phỏt trin rt thnh cụng, xng ỏng c nghiờn cu v tip thu nhng bi hc kinh nghim Tng quan nhng va trỡnh by s l c s i vo phõn tớch thc trng giao dch phỏi sinh hng hoỏ phi ti chớnh ti Vit Nam v xut nhng gii phỏp phự hp nhm phỏt trin hot ng ny ti Vit Nam CHNG THC TRNG GIAO DCH PHI SINH HNG HểA PHI TI CHNH TI VIT NAM GII THIU CHNG Chng trỡnh by thc trng giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa phi ti chớnh ti Vit Nam Trong ú, cỏc iu kin nh hng n s phỏt trin giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa phi ti chớnh ti Vit Nam c phõn tớch c th bao gm iu kin v hng húa, c s phỏp lý, iu kin v kinh t, ti chớnh v iu kin k thut Phn hai ca chng ny i sõu vo phõn tớch lm ni bt thc trng giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa phi ti chớnh ti Vit Nam C th, mc tiờu ca phn ny l gii thiu v phõn tớch tỡnh hỡnh hot ng cỏc sn giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa ti Vit Nam Bờn cnh ú, kt qu ba bng kho sỏt bao gm kho sỏt nhu cu sn phm, kho sỏt nh cung cp v kho sỏt chuyờn gia c trỡnh by c th T thc trng ca th trng cựng vi kt qu kho sỏt, ni dung chng hai c tip ni bng vic ỏp dng mụ hỡnh SWOT ỏnh giỏ giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa phi ti chớnh ti Vit Nam, t ú a nhng nguyờn nhõn chớnh khin cho s phỏt trin ca th trng cũn nhiu hn ch 2.1 KHI QUT CC IU KIN CHNH PHT TRIN GIAO DCH PHI SINH HNG HO PHI TI CHNH TI VIT NAM 2.1.1 iu kin v hng hoỏ 2.1.1.1 Go 2.1.1.2 C phờ 2.1.1.3 Cao su V iu kin hng húa, Vit Nam cú hng húa a dng v cú th mnh nht nh trờn th trng th gii, cú th lm ti sn c s cỏc giao dch phỏi sinh hng húa c th hoỏ th mnh ny thnh tim nng cho hot ng phỏi sinh hng hoỏ ti Vit Nam cú hai cn m bo liờn quan n hng hoỏ c s Mt l phi hoch nh Footer Page 10 of 258 Header Page 40 of 258 11 Chart 2.19: Investment (% GDP) Chart 2.20 shows that the that the discount rate and the refinancing rate decreased continuously over, along with a decrease in the commercial banks interest rate Source: Gafin (2014) Chart 2.20: Currency changes 2.1.3.3 The capacity of the commercial bank system 2.1.4 Technical conditions Technical conditions will be analyzed through a specific trading products in coffee trading center of Buon Ma Thuot (BCEC): coffee forward contracts It can be seen, in terms of technical conditions, the coffee forward trading at BCEC has reflected a good understanding and fit with technical conditions required of the commodity derivative trading This should be expanded to other basic goods for derivative trading such as rubber, steel, sugar It must be sure that the technical condition of goods must meet the needs of the world market and and the period of transaction must be suitable with the seasonal characteristic of each kind of goods 2.2.THE STATUS OF THE COMMODITY DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS IN VIETNAM 2.2.1 An introduction of the commodity derivatives exchanges in Vietnam Many commodity exchanges were established in Vietnam throughout the period of 2002 2013 The initial aim of these exchanges is to create a centralized trading venue where the seller and buyer can directly negotiate instead of purchasing through an intermediate The derivatives transactions gradually appear at these exchanges 2.2.3 An analysis of the operation status of the commodity derivatives exchanges in Vietnam 2.2.3.1 Ho Chi Minh Cashew exchange Cashew exchange was established on March 2002, jointly by Vietnam Cashew Association, Ho Chi Minh Security Exchange and a partner from America This establishment shows that the idea of commodity derivatives transactions in Vietnam was formed 15 years ago with the intial purpose of supporting the centralized transactions between the sellers and the buyers as well as giving a tool to hedge the commodity price fluctuation In addition, the images of Vietnamese agricultural products can be introduced to international markets through the exchange Also, it is easier for Vietnamese companies to further their operation worldwide However, despite of the appropriation of the regulations on goods, transaction operation and member with the international standards, the development of the first commodity exchange in Vietnam did not meet the expectation Therefore, this exchange have to be closed Footer Page 40 of 258 Header Page 41 of 258 12 2.2.3.2 Can Gio Aquatic Trading Center (Cangio ATC) Cangio ATC was established on May 2002 which operates as the model of a company HCMC People's Committee assigned Cholimex to be the investor Derivatives transantions are also appeared on the list of transactions offered by Cangio ATC This transaction is also aimed at hedging price volatility for the aquaculture and ensuring the number of transactions to purchase Goods has been defined in terms of quality, but the mechanisms for monitoring quality is not good, especially lacking of the activities supporting the development of quality merchandise The commodity derivative transactions on exchanges revealed the limitations and must be shut down for a short time because of the failure of ensuring the quality of goods Therefore, the customers not trust the quality of derivatives products in comparison with original trading 2.2.2.7 Buon Me Thuoc Coffee Exchange Center (BCEC) BCEC was founded in 2006, firstly operated on December 2008 under the sponsorship of Agence Franỗaise de Dộveloppement (AFD) Although the exchange has been well prepared before pfficially operationg, it is obviously that coffee derivative transactions through the exchange still limited and underdeveloped Coffee derivative products on exchanges are standardized under the provisions of derivatives, however, some provisions are inappropriate with the common regulations which leads the failure of the transaction such as the regulations on the amount of coffee traded, the location of warehousing systems, the failure of attracting investors, lacking of measures to support the transaction 2.2.2.8 Sacom Trading Exchange STE Sacombank Group introduced Sacom Trading Exchange on December 2009 which belongs to Sacom Commodity Transactions Joint Stock Company Being born after other the exchanges with relatively modern equipment and multiple supporting client systems from Sacombank but the commodity derivative transactions has not developedyet.The majority of trading has still be the spot transactions of goods listed The main reason is that most people involved in transactions not realize the advantages of the product and not feel safe when trading at the exchange since they are worried about the quality of goods and the transaction legal adjustments 2.2.2.9 Vietnam Commodity Exchange VNX is the first exchange which is licensed to operate under commercial law VNX has regulations about products, trading methods, management which is consistent with the commodity derivatives transactions worldwide The idea of connecting the system deals with members through the system using modern technology However, VNX still cannot developed business customerssystems The main customer of the exchange currently is the individual customers, which is difficult to the exchange in the process of development the commodity derivatives transactions in Vietnam 2.2.2.10 INFO Commodity Exchange- INFO COMEX On 04.22.2013, the Ministry of Industry and Commerce formally approved and licensed the establishment of INFO Commodity Exchange (INFO COMEX) for the Ocean Group, chartered capital of 150 billion dong, the founding shareholders include Ocean Group and Ocean Bank The license allows the group to trade in the centralized trading of goods with the cargo base: steel, coffee, rubber and other commodities as prescribed by law INFO Commodity Exchanges are actively preparing to officially put into operation with the motto Footer Page 41 of 258 Header Page 42 of 258 13 that best suits local characteristics, while meeting international standards in the field of commodity trading focus In general, the domestic exchanges in Vietnam has not well developed yet, the majority of the exchange only moderately active or only exist in a relatively short time Products are traded through exchanges are not diversified and not attractive to many investors On commodity exchanges include both spot transactions and commodity derivatives transactions However, the transactions at the exchange face many obstacles due to many different reasons so commodity derivatives activities in Vietnam have not developed Parallel to the commodity derivatives trading in commodity exchanges in Vietnam, enterprises, investors can participate in trading at the commodity exchanges internationally through the brokerage unit country 2.2.3 The status of commodity derivatives transactions at international exchanges Since 2003, the central bank allowed some banks piloting some commodity derivatives products for a number of enterprises with narrow and strict conditions The bank aims to mediate goods transactions of established businesses through Exchanges or engage commodity exchanges international commodity, especially for food items In case of the banks have reciprocal conditions with foreign partners in order to prevent risks, they make it through a member of foreign commodity exchange No bank in Vietnam open an account at foreign commodity exchange to transact The Vietnam Commodity Exchanges transactions include commodities trading which incurring goods delivery, commodity price volatility hedging, speculating 2.3.RESULTS OF THE SURVEY ON COMMODITY DERIVATIVES MARKET IN VIETNAM 2.3.1 The survey on the demand of the commodity derivatives products In order to obtain information from the demand side of coffee futures contracts, the author has designed a questionnaire consisting of 20 questions and carried out the survey to coffee growers in Lam Dong Each question is designed with the easy answers such as know, not know; yes, no The survey was directly delivered to coffee growers and the author collected 250 replies 2.3.2 The survey on the supply of the commodity derivatives products For more information from the suppliers, employees working for suppliers who involves in futures transactionsof coffee, the author has prepared a survey questionnaire of 34 questions divided into parts including the level of understanding of commodity derivatives; the evaluation of derivatives products in Vietnam; the quality of agricultural goods; a review of achievements and limitations; a review of the causes of the problems andthe level they agree with the proposal of the author Each question is simply designed with the answer yes, no and others The survey was sent to the staff VNX, Sacom STE, BCEC, Techcombank, BIDV A total of 500 questionnaires were sent out in different ways such as direct basis, email and friends network with 380 replies received 2.3.3 Expert interviews about the commodity derivatives products To have an objective and full assessment, the author has conducted direct interviews with twenty experts on commodity derivatives transactions in Vietnam The questionnaire has nine questions including comments on the development of Vietnam's financial market, the competitiveness of goods in Vietnam, comments on the operations of commodity exchanges in Vietnam regardingthe strengths, weakness, opportunities and challenges to develop commodity derivatives transactions in Vietnam All the interviewed experts were very enthusiastic and Footer Page 42 of 258 Header Page 43 of 258 14 made many critical comments The feedback is presented in the part entiled "An evaluation of the derivatives transactions in Vietnam by SWOT model" 2.4.AN EVALUATION OF THE COMMODITY DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS IN VIETNAM BY SWOT MODEL Table 2.11:An evaluation of the prospects of the commodity derivatives transactions in Vietnam by SWOT model h gởi:S S1: Diversified goods: 100% of expert opinion in the surveys agreed on the basis of diversity of goods is one of the remarkable strengths of Vietnam in the development of commodity derivatives transactions However, they still concerns about the quality of goods in comparison with the commodity quality standards in the world S2: Abundant human resources with the quality gradually improved: 100% of surveyed experts agreed on the abundant human resources in Vietnam as well as the quality of human resources is increasingly improved This is a strength of the country in the process of developing commodity derivativesmarket However,there is a concern on the inexperience of the human resources in Vietnam S3: Innovation in business ideas: 80% of surveyed experts believe that innovation business ideas is one of the most important in the development of commodity derivatives transactions in Vietnam The problem is to have the appropriate solutions to turn this potential strengths into practical effect in the development process, the need to acquire experience in existing premises, having policies keep in track with new development trend of commodity derivatives transactions O O1: Vietnam is a developing country: 100% of surveyed experts agree Vietnam's economy is growing is a great opportunity to develop new products, including commodity derivatives transactions Footer Page 43 of 258 W W1: Relatively low understanding of derivatives transactions: 75% of surveyed experts said that one of the main weaknesses of the commodity derivatives transactions in Vietnam was the low knowledge of this transaction W2: Incomplete Legal Framework: 100% of the surveyed experts agreed the incompletelegal framework is as one of the main weaknesses affecting the development of commodity derivatives transactions in Vietnam W3: Limited Information about trading commodities: 75% of surveyed experts believed that the lack of information about trading goods is one of the main weaknesses affecting the development of derivatives transactions W4: Limited ability to enter into transactions: 60% of the interviewed experts said that the ability to limited engagement of customers' transactions is one of the main drawbacks to development of commodity derivatives transactions in Vietnam W5: Undiversified Derivatives Transactions: 50% of surveyed experts believed that undiversified commodities is one of the weaknesses in developing commodity derivatives transactions in Vietnam T T1: Unsynchronized development of Infrastructure: 100% of surveyed experts agreed that the undeveloped infrastructure is a major challenge for the development of commodity derivatives transactions in Header Page 44 of 258 O2: The needs of improving the markets: 90% of surveyed experts said that the needs of completing the derivatives market and hedging the fluctuations in commodity prices are the opportunity to develop commodity derivatives transactions in Vietnam O3: Integration requirement: 80% of the surveyed experts said that the increased integration requirements is an opportunity to develop commodity derivatives transactions O4: Acquiring market development and management experience: 80% of surveyed experts agreed to acquire experience from the successful market is a good opportunity to develop commodity derivatives transactions in Vietnam O5: Modern technology acquisition: 75% of surveyed experts agreed that the technology acquisition from other countries is a basis for developing the commodity derivatives transactions Technology can also lead the development of suitable products in the market 15 Vietnam T2: The Fear of ChangingPsychology: 100% of surveyed experts said that the aversion to change is one of the main challenges in the development of commodity derivatives transactions in Vietnam T3: Limited capacity and management mechanisms: 80% of surveyed experts believed that this is a major challenge for the agency to develop commodity derivatives transactions T4: Sustainable development of financial and banking sector: 75% of surveyed experts believed that promoting thesustainable financial and banking sector banking is a great challenge to develop commodity derivatives transactions in Vietnam T5: Simple construction of trading products: 60% of surveyed experts agreed that building the right product is a challenge to develop the commodity derivatives transactions in Vietnam Source: The synthesis of the author 2.5 REASONS OF THE LIMITATIONS 2.5.1 Incompleted legal framework Although the commodity exchanges in Vietnam are first launched in 2002, but until 2005, all the activities of the new commodity exchanges are specified in the Commercial Law in 2005 with 11 articles That's just begun to consider the legal basis of Commodity exchanges are a form of modern commodity trading However, until the Decree 158/2006/ ND-CP dated 28/12/2006, the purchase and sale of goods through the new commodity trading management unified by the government 2.5.2 The role of commercial banks have not been promoted The bank has not combined with commodity exchanges in order to build an appropriate derivatives market The banks also cannot connect banking services with commodity derivatives transactions The participants in the commodity exchanges are not officiently financed by banks The role of the commercial banks have not clearly expressed in connecting domestic investors, who provide domestic commodity exchanges with foreign goods The activities of providing information and advicing the prospects of commodity derivatives products are still limited 2.5.3 Undiversified derivatives products The products traded on commodity exchanges in Vietnam are just focused on spot transactions while the derivatives trading products are very primitive and undiversified The lack of Footer Page 44 of 258 Header Page 45 of 258 16 diversity presents in both the underlying asset and the derivatives instruments In fact, there is just some merchandise was used as the underlying asset: rubber, coffee, cashew, steel Many other major products in Vietnam have not been added to the list yet Only futures and forwards contracts are applied with undiversified terms This make the revenues of commodity derivatives products be limited, therefore, the markets cannot attracts many participants This is one of the main causes for the underdevelopment of commodity derivatives transactions in Vietnam 2.5.4 Limited management Many management bodies involved in commodity derivatives transactions: (i) non-financial goods under the management of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, derivatives transactions under the management of the Ministry of Finance and Payment Operations under the management of the State Bank According to the analysis of the commodity derivatives transactions in Vietnam, the management role of the governing bodies are underperforming Also it is very difficult to coordinatebetween different parties This is a point that should be thoroughlyconsidered to ensure the best environment for development of the commodity derivatives transactions 2.5.5Underdeveloped supporting services To develop the commodity derivatives transactions, the main services that should be considered are providing accurate information about goods, goods production forecasts, training knowledge of derivatives for each potential market participants including farmers, dealers, brokers, payment bank, transaction management department, market management, quality control department, department of corporate tax and individual tax 2.5.6Underdevelopedinfrastructure One of the reasons that create limitations in commodity derivative transactions is the technology infrastructure remains underdeveloped, solving this problem will create a good foundation for the development of such transactions in the future The main issues to consider when developing technological infrastructure including trading software, information customers management software, the software connecting the commodity exchanges abroad in case of online transactions direct exchanges of foreign goods or in case the connection between commodity exchanges in the country and commodity exchanges abroad 2.5.7Incompletecommodity policy development base Policies aimed at developing underlying goods have not been well developed and completely implemented To address the causes of the underdevelopment of commodity derivatives transactions, the following issues should be concerned: to promote the commodities exchanges to work well; to largen the number of underlying goods, to ensure the quality of goods,to maintain a high liquidity The commodity markets should be active and the information about goods should be complete CONCLUSION The status of the market showed that the commodity derivativse transactions in Vietnam has not developed and does not attracted many participantsyet The authors analyzed two surveys, a survey of demand for products delivered from coffee growers in Lam Dong and a survey for the supply of commodities derivatives From the results of the two surveys, the authors chose to analyze some key results to show findings from the survey The author used the 3rd survey, expertsurvey to assess derivatives transactions in non-financial goods with SWOT model for the case of Vietnam to see the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and challenges for the Footer Page 45 of 258 Header Page 46 of 258 17 development of this transaction From all the above analysis, the author draws the achievements and limitations of commodity derivatives transactions in Vietnam, as well as to determine the cause of these problems This will be the basis for the author proposes solutions to develop commodity derivatives transactions in chapter CHAPTER SOLUTIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DERIVATIVE TRANSACTION OF NONFIANCIAL COMMODITY IN VIET NAM Introduction In chapter 3, solutions are proposed to develop derivative transactions of nonfinancial commodity in Viet Nam The content of this chapter is analyzing each group of main solutions and auxiliary solutions The solutions aim to create the perfection and development of the market Subjects using these solutions are derivative transactions of nonfinancial goods, suppliers, banks and policy makers 3.1 SOLUTIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DERIVATIVE TRANSACTION OF NONFIANCIAL COMMODITY IN VIET NAM 3.1.1 Enhancing the role of the commercial banking system Commercial banking system plays an intermediary role in nonfinancial commodity derivative transactions between investors and commodity exchanges Accordingly, the margin transactions, the daily payment, payment will be implemented through the commercial banking system Banks can play a role as a broker between domestic, foreign investors and domestic, foreign commodity exchanges In parallel, the commercial banking system can also invest for the investor before, during as well as after the transaction Therefore, it can be said that the commercial banking system has an important role in the development of nonfinancial commodity derivative transaction in Viet Nam To promote this role, it is necessary to equip a strong financial capacity for the commercial banking system 3.1.2 Defining management mechanism and enhancing the role of transactions' administrators To enhance the management role in derivative commodity, it is essential to concern the management and authority of the management Because the commodity derivative operations involve many agencies, the determination of managing agency is very important In theory, there are many different kinds of assets in Vietnam that may allow for derivative transactions With the population of about 90 million people and an economy that produces many goods, the choice is very wide In fact, the assets of different facilities are managed by different managing agencies Derivative commodity is under the management of the Ministry of Industry and Trade and has been adjusted by the Commercial Law 2005 The currency derivative transactions are governed by a separate document system of the central bank Whereas, the field of securities is managed by the Ministry of Finance, is directly managed by the State Securities Committee The selection of the original derivative products to operate should be standardized at the beginning and go from the low to the high level to suitable with management and monitoring capacity and the level of acceptable risk of the market 3.1.3 Enhancing the capacity of investors in the market Investors engaging in the non-financial commodity derivative transactions market can be businesses or individuals The more investors to participate in as a member of the exchange will be the basis for ensuring the operation of the exchange and will be vibrant with high turnover Therefore, it is very important to enhance the capacity of investors who participate in Footer Page 46 of 258 Header Page 47 of 258 18 the market, especially the businesses SWOT, O2 analysis showed that one of the opportunities for the development of nonfinancial commodity derivative transactions is the need of improving markets To take advantage of this opportunity, one of the issues that needs to be solved is the capacity of businesses, the large investors who participate in the nonfinancial commodity derivatives market 3.1.4 Designing the suitable commodity derivatives products W4 from the SWOT analysis, which shows the ability to engage the transaction, is still limited for many reasons One of the main reasons is that the commodity derivatives products have not been designed in accordance with the selected segment The main shortcoming of the Viet Nam commodity exchange is poor liquidity, namely the transaction participants and the transaction value are not much There are many reasons, but one of the main reasons is that the potential demand has not or cannot come into contact with existing products, or the existing products cannot meet the requirements Derivatives designs should be considered to ensure the interests of the parties involved: The supply party can have profits from the price differences, fees or deposits or proprietary trading; but the essentials are the price differences, fees or deposits The demand party is willing to pay the supply party fees and deposits as a hedge against the risk of price fluctuations or as an opportunity of investment A suitable product is the one that meets the basic needs and rights of the parties 3.1.5 Researching the association with the financial services of the bank T5 from the SWOT analysis shows that the construction of simple and user-friendly derivatives products can be one of the main challenges in the development of derivatives transactions of nonfinancial commodities There are many solutions to deal with this challenge, but one of them is to link the nonfinancial derivatives products with the existing products of the bank Initial observation shows that the party that supplies commodity derivatives may have good products and can meet the demand for hedging the risk of price fluctuations from the demand party However, the commodity derivatives products alone will restrict the success The demand party needs an overall solution package from orienting farming, consulting new seeds, new farming techniques and from the demand for an advance of capital to plant, an advance of cash before the actual sales and ultimately, from ensuring the output with reasonable prices To meet such demand, the commodity exchange should have policies that link to other units involved 3.1.6 Diversifying the transaction form Transactions can happen directly between the buyer and the seller in a separated point; or transactions can happen directly between the buyer and the seller in an assembly point, this case needs many transaction points in order to be convenient for the transfer The transaction points in this case also provide information that helps the buyer and the seller make transaction favorably In the case of trading at an assembly point, the buyer and the seller not directly deal with each other , they trade through the Exchange Hence, this case needs many forms so that buyers and sellers can put their orders in the Exchange, for example, give instructions directly to the brokers, make transaction through network telephone, text messaging, or other means of communications The commodity derivatives transactions should also consider the use of the traditional way that is receiving orders and conducting the direct auction Although this way of trading is not very efficient, it carries the characteristics of the transaction Warehousing system and quality verification should also diversify the designs and suit many forms of transaction Real purchasing needs and speculative demands should be calculated Footer Page 47 of 258 Header Page 48 of 258 19 specifically in order to prepare the warehouse capacity and the appropriate quality examination 3.1.7 Diversifying traded commodities From the SWOT analysis, W5 represents one of the current weaknesses of derivatives transactions of nonfinancial commodities, which is that the commodities in derivatives transactions have not diversified, whereas S1 shows that the basic commodities in Viet Nam are very plentiful Therefore, the matter is to research in order to bring the basic commodities to the derivatives transactions so as to take advantage of the strengths of Viet Nam and solve the existing weaknesses Commodity derivatives markets are many and varied, and increasingly innovative and complicated Initially, the basic commodities of derivatives markets were in the form of material good, including agricultural products such as butter, eggs, flour, rice; the energy products including crude oil, electricity, rubber; the precious metals such as iron, steel, gold, silver; and then the financial products such as stocks, bonds, interest rates, currency The most recent commodities are abstract products, for example, Volatility Index Options was selected as the basic commodities for an Option contract or Future contracts for the weather in some areas 3.1.8 Defining clearly market segmentation The determination of the orientation is very important In many countries, experience had failed because of trying to meet all the needs of every object Therefore, it has no features and no better service for a specific object Commodity derivative transactions are very complex transactions It is not easy to understand the meaning and method of transaction simultaneously for those who not belong to this specialization While commodity prices always changes and commodity quality Vietnam have yet to ensure good international standards Therefore, the primary purpose of commodity derivative transactions now is to insure risk of changes in commodity price and raise the quality standards of Vietnams goods before also developing so this is a necessary investment channel development later Mentioned problem is a twoway problem because without speculative activities will make the market less active and will affect the liquidity of the floor So the operation mechanism of commodity exchanges if there must resolve these difficulties after selecting a specific segment for his floor 3.1.9 Transparency of information Information problem should consider the relevant solutions: Firstly, public information of commodity derivatives to any subjects who care This information must reflect accurately and timely transaction situation Secondly, provide information related to the transaction, instruct the transaction, rules and operating regulations involved Thirdly, provide information relating to commodity base: world prices, trading volumes and forecast trend about change of production, the market demand To act this problem well, we should note two things: First, the side of provision commodity derivative transactions has to provide relevant software to transmit the relevant information about the products, rules, regulations, guidelines dealing, training, exchange online at their official website as well as other media It is necessary to band a team of researching and providing relevant information timely This activity should be done regularly and should have good inheritance Update the changes, changing trends about transaction ways of products and goods in the world Second, establish a center to connect the supply-side transactions and investors Intermediate side will update and support needed information about goods, the standards of trading goods on the world's exchanges, price volatility, production forecasts to investors The main purpose of this solution is to help Footer Page 48 of 258 Header Page 49 of 258 20 investors, goods provider have enough necessary information for the transaction and the significance of the transaction in which they are or will carry out 3.1.10 Improving commodity exchanges Tran Dac Sinh (2011) commented: "It is necessary to build a focused derivatives exchange, focused exchanges should ensure good financial capacity and efficient deposit management system." Commodity exchange have to show position, the bourse has very high degree of standardization of the number of transactions, the quality of goods, price, price fluctuation amplitude, time delivery time, margin, profit and loss account each day, so certain exchanges must also meet its standards Standardization of exchanges should refer to the same floor conditional Vietnam but must ensure that: Scale floor, mechanism of action as appropriate; Equity must be large enough; Modern information technology in trade, information management, risk management, the ability to connect with foreign exchanges, the ability to enter into transactions of foreign investors; The infrastructure of the modern right floor, suitable storage system and ensures the area This is a difficult problem because the commodity base unfocused Should the construction of warehouses must be combined with policies of the cargo hub facility; Human resources executives, working in tandem to better and more experienced; There are rules and regulations consistent operation with international practices is the issue of collateral, daily profit and loss account, accounting, operational reporting, tax reporting, risk control ; Is the transaction needs, with research departments, pricing, product orientation according to international practices Agency managers can consider the possibility of merging, linking domestic flooring, avoid small transactions, carrying acne and not eligible for development activities 3.1.11 Acquiring modern technology With current labor force with the inceptive level of development of commodity derivative transactions in recent years, it is still extremely difficult for using existing human resources to develop trading software; especially, it is hard to predict all the arising problems in practical transaction Therefore, the most feasible solution in the current stage is technology acquisition of a trading platform which has similar features to which the Vietnam would like to build, and make amendments and supplements to suit with Vietnam Of course this solution is also a temporary solution and still has many risks but with current conditions, the above measures are most feasible Along with accepting technology from outside, it is helpful to set up an expert teams to analyze and learn from acquiring technology This group will be responsible for technology development toward commodity exchanges that Vietnam wants to develop to avoid excessive reliance from foreign technology In commodity derivative transactions, if the transactions are concentrated, all buy and sell orders are concentrated at exchanges and use call auction The history of transactions is reflected in one software technology Therefore, just a simply technical error could lead to confused states and negative reactions, loss of investors confidence A good technology foundation will help the commodity derivatives develop well as expected 3.1.12 Acquisition experience lessons Each country has different commodity production background and, and has its own way to proceed And this is a good opportunity for Vietnam commodity derivatives market could get experience and learn lessons from the establishing and operating markets In the study of the failed cases when apply the derivative instruments, John Digenen (1995) shared of Metallgesellshaft failure case in 1994, a typical lesson about liquidity risk using futures Footer Page 49 of 258 Header Page 50 of 258 21 contracts Baird (2009) also stated the Long Term Capital Management case in 1998: "What is special in this failure case lies in the assumptions in setting business strategy The fact that markets are not perfect, and even though the probability of occurring risks is extremely low to calculate but not totally zero " Or Arlette C Wilson (2003) shared the bankruptcy of Enron Corporation in 2001, an important lesson is moral risk of operating company groups and audit firms, along with the shortcomings of accounting principles An exchange prefers to have good liquidity, apply hedging risks, ensure a good technical system will be easier to succeed Of course there are many levels for learning experience and so as to access the completed information requires Vietnam commodity exchanges have signed a comprehensive cooperation and unity The cooperation might be not only in providing information that in exchanging human resources, personnel training, consulting products and linking the activities of various exchanges 3.1.13 Training on commodity derivative transaction Nowadays, derivative instruments have been graduallyintroduced into the official training programs in university and master in Finance & Banking major This is a positive signal and good solution, it helps student and trainee to increase intelligence about derivative transaction in general and commodity derivatives in particular For student, human resources is very important in the near future because it can improve knowledge and increase effect of knowledge about commodity derivative instrument through specialized competitions in the students Through those contests, we can choose eminent students to become the hub for human resources of the exchange At the universities, there is another solution to increase knowledge and attract students interest in this transaction is establish the club about commodity derivative transaction 3.1.14 Preparation of human resources Human resources not only directly operate but also undertake role in consultant for clients and promote products For having a good human resources, the trading floor should strengthen the recruitment, training and use wise policies to selectgood student at the prestigious universities.The recruitment not only in the domestic subjects but also in the foreign experts, students and people who worked abroad, are also good subjects The problem is choosing the right people for the right job at reasonable cost After selecting, there will have the plan for training and exercising Building corporate culture and good compensation policy to retain the talents It is necessary to prepare human resource for IT,product development department and commodity transactions research department.Building cooperating culture and good remuneration to keep the talents It is necessary to prepare the human resources for IT, product development department and commodity transactions research department Appearing later is an advantage, the experience of the market ahead is a treasure, there should be research strategies to take over those useful lessons Can be said that human resources is the key for the success of developing commodity transactions in Vietnam Fine quality human resources will create a good direction for developing and designing the suitable products and take those products into life, makes life become more valuable Finding this human resources is not easy in Vietnam because most of them are lack of experience in commodity transactions Therefore, we can find people who have good nature and good morals, then train them become experts 3.2 Support solution group 3.2.1 Strategic orientation develop commodity derivative transactions Footer Page 50 of 258 Header Page 51 of 258 22 This is considered the most important macroscopic solution and require specific strategic orientation of commodity derivative transactions Promotion of trade and cooperation with foreign countries in order to expand the market Need to diversify trade promotion under a general plan at the national level and avoid fragmentary competition The important role of government is linking foreign policy and economy of the country with the development of industry and Vietnams brand Defining the purpose of commodity derivative activity and segmentation to have appropriate support policies According to Decision No 366 / QD-TT, March 11, 2014 by the Prime Minister on "approval of building projects and develop the derivatives market in Vietnam" The views and principles of decision will: Build and develop the derivatives market in Vietnam is based on standards and international routines It is suitable for actual conditions and the development orientations of economy and society of country Build derivatives market under the centralized model, operate under the management of the State 3.2.2 Goods developing strategies Its necessary to create appropriate strategies to develop commodity basis, to this, there should be some synchronization solution such as: Stablize the amount of goods, carry out firm caring process, set as the priorities and promote the advantages of high quality goods, effectively deploy breeding programs, research and quickly transfer different types of breed with the high productivity, high quality Practicing techniques to hibridize high productivity breeds, applying intensive process, rejecting less inefficient planting area to change other plants Expanding agricultural support policies such as support for credit, agricultural extension programs, agricultural tax exemption, stimulus agriculture by lending to purchase agricultural machines with low interest rates Improving the quality of goods basis requires much time and synchronization solutions, involving so many sides, so to finish this solutionperfectly, we need specific strategies The most important thing is to choose the strategic commodity of Vietnam: a key commodity in food security, such as rice, type of merchandise promoting the favorable climate and soil such as coffee, rubber, fishery production, high-quality goods to construct the development roles such as electronics Next is to identify resources to maintain and develop strategic commodity above 3.2.3 Building a legal basis for commodity derivatives market The legal documents guiding and adjusting derivative transactions often lack and go back from the real situation Thus, research to promulgate a text of adjustment and guidance of these transactions is an essential issue for the state authorities Besides, the majority of the derivative transactions are carried out by representatives to the partners by telephone, internet The conversation between the parties will be recorded entirely and will be used as evidence for the negotiations in the transaction between the parties if there are some commercial disputes then Therefore, the promulgation of legal papers is to recognize the value of electronic signatures, electronic documents, settingup level lock code which is registered and used for the components involved in e-commerce, recognize the value of evidence of electronic documents in the contracts to support the process of modernization of technology in the derivative transactions 3.2.4 Policies to support the information of goods Need to considered relevant solutions as: Firstly, public information of commodity derivatives to any subjects who care This information must reflect accurately and timely about transaction situation Secondly, provide information related to the transaction, instruct the transaction, Footer Page 51 of 258 Header Page 52 of 258 23 rules and operating regulations involved Thirdly, provide information relating to commodity: world prices, trading volumes and forecasts To act this problem well, we should note two things: First, the side of provision commodity derivative transactions has to provide relevant software to transmit the relevant information about the products, rules, regulations, guidelines dealing, training, exchange online at their official website as well as other media Its necessary to band a team of researching and providing relevant information timely This activity should be done regularly and should have good inheritance.Update the changes, changing trends about transaction ways of products and goods in the world Second, establish a center to connect the supply-side transactions and investors Intermediate side will update and support needed information about goods, the standards of trading goods on the world's exchanges, price volatility, production forecasts to investors When we have good policies on planning and developing commodities, essential problem is to provide transparent information of goods related objects The main purpose of this solution is to help investors, goods provider have enough necessary information for the transaction and the significance of the transaction in which they are or will carry out 3.2.5 Improving quality infrastructure Commodity derivative transaction through the exchange is modern transactions because it use advances in information technology and connect with the world's exchanges However, the fields of information technology in Vienam is still weak and Internet is not good It is necessary to invest and build modern network system.The network need to be covered whole country with high speed and stable transmission Network security needs to be built and well protected This solution is not only requires a high expense to perform but also to have a vision of general development of transactions in future During explosion in information technology today, the most exchanges in the economy will tend transaction online However, we will fall into passive situation and depend on information technology without adequate and careful preparation To solve the problem of moving commodities exchanges, we should have a storage system near input 3.2.6 Perfecting the payment mechanism The government should authorize the State Bank to research and construct one new reasonable payment mechanism whenever we deal with foreign commodity exchange This help to avoid some situations which have improper purposes; however, this also make sure to have the quick, and flexible payment, so as to restrict bad effects to business Due to payment relating intimately to the State Bank and Ministry of Finance, the scale of one circular recommended by Ministry of industry & Trade could not handle the cardinal issues Therefore, only the legal framework approved by the government has enough power for the commodity exchange become more popular with the individual and business Payments will relate to Ministry of Finance, State Bank, and Ministry of Industry & Trade, so regulations relating to legal basic should be approved by the government Daily mechanize of payment, business account management, or brokerages need to be conducted by a big bank having a good reputation, and information transparency Payment through other foreign commodity exchange also need to establish a clear mechanize to help the parties make deals easier 3.2.7 Perfecting the accounting system for derivative transactions The lack of accounting standards for recording, evaluating financial instruments in general and derivative financial instruments in particular would affect to determination of financial results; and risk financial management of businesses With current accounting method, derivative Footer Page 52 of 258 Header Page 53 of 258 24 transactions will be accounted according to historical cost concept, it means to have loss provision when the market has disadvantage fluctuations And we just need to calculate the differences between price contract performance and the book value to account to other account receivable, and account payable at the final contract settlement So accounting seems to just focus on the real interest /loss, while the expected ones are not cared Organizations deal with derivative contracts should account the transactions followed the amended value which matches with the market price and period account the differences into the income account Other organizations use derivative contracts as a risk preventing instrument need account it into separated account, and make sure to have the consistency the calculate income and the risks It means the differences are only accounted to the income after clearing the real losses for the risks Therefore, accounting system requires the derivative transactions should be built suitably with its features, and reflected the derivative transactions features objectively Conclusion for chapter To develop nonfinancial derivative transactions we need to entire these solutions, including: orienting development strategy for derivative transactions, advancing commodity basic, completing legal basic, assisting information for commodity basic, raising quality of infrastructure, establishing suitable management mechanism, completing payment mechanism, accounting system, raising comprehension about commodity derivative, designing suitable derivative products, promoting information technology, learning experience lessons from different countries, well preparing for labor force, linking with banking products, having a large variety of transaction form, transaction commodity, determining potential customers, market segment, information transparency, completing commodity exchange, raising capacity of banks and businesses If we develop these solutions, we will make a foundation for derivative transactions and bring a bright picture for derivative commodity transaction in Vietnam CONCLUSION Nonfinancial commodity derivative transactions in Vietnam has been in the first step of constructing, and entered in transaction, but it faces some negative reactions at once from the participants, and furthermore commodity exchange also reveal some weak points We can list some disadvantages here like: inadequate legal basic prevent development; gathering, offering, approaching information about commodity still have some limits, limitation about derivative transactions knowledge; IT infrastructure is still weak; having some limitations for taking part in transaction, or people still favor deal in traditional ways, there is not a large variety of commodities, management mechanism is still not good enough We need long term strategies and visions to make nonfinancial derivative transaction more develop There are some recommends for commodity derivative development including: completing legal basic, completing payment mechanism,having a large variety of transaction forms, improving IT infrastructure; raising role of management; completing payment mechanism, accounting system; information transparency; completing policy for commodity basic, and commodity exchange This thesis reaches some positive sites: generalizing overview about derivative commodity, analyzing some situations for getting experience, surveying opinions from relating parties, determining reasons why transactions not develop as expected, and suggesting suitable solutions The main limitation of this thesis is data sources, research database is mainly gathered from experts opinions and results from former surveys Official statistic figures from Footer Page 53 of 258 Header Page 54 of 258 25 commodity exchange are limited It is quite hard to approach experience lessons from foreign commodity transaction exchange, organizing the market, operation and management mechanism at the exchange are still narrow The next research will go in depth about basic commodity at the exchange and its changeable tendency Then we could build commodity development strategy in Vietnam, together with pushing the connection with abroad commodity exchange ARTICLES RELATING TO THE THESIS Nguyn Phc Kinh Kha (2014), Commodity derivatives transactions in BM&F, Brazil and experiences to Vietnam, Banking Technology Magazine, number 58, 3/2014, page 58-62 Nguyn Phc Kinh Kha (2014), Evaluation the conditons to develop commodity deriavtives transactions in Vietnam, Financial and Moneytary Market Magazine, number 11, 6/2014, page 30-33 Nguyn Phc Kinh Kha (2014), Development the commodity derivatives transactions, Economic Magazine, number 18, 9/2014, page 21-23 Footer Page 54 of 258 ... 1.3 PHÁT TRIỂN GIAO DỊCH PHÁI SINH HÀNG HÓA PHI TÀI CHÍNH 1.3.1 Khái niệm Bùi Thụy Nam (2010) cho phát triển giao dịch phái sinh hàng hóa phi tài trình đƣa dần công cụ tài phái sinh vào giao dịch. .. phải chịu nhiều rủi ro giao dịch giao hàng hóa với phát triển giao dịch phái sinh hàng hóa giới thời gian qua, đề tài "Phát triển giao dịch phái sinh hàng hóa phi tài Việt Nam" đƣợc thực với mục... giao dịch phái sinh hàng hóa phái sinh tài 1.2.2 Các hình thức giao dịch phái sinh hàng hoá phi tài 1.2.2.1 Giao dịch kỳ hạn Giao dịch kỳ hạn hàng hoá giao dịch thỏa thuận mua bán loại hàng hóa