Chính sách trung đông của liên bang nga trong giai đoạn 2000 2015

I HC QUC GIA H NI TRNG I HC KHOA HC X HI V NHN VN NGUYN HUY ANH TUN CHNH SCH TRUNG ễNG CA LIấN BANG NGA TRONG GIAI ON 2000 - 2015 LUN VN THC S Chuyờn ngnh: Quc t hc Mó s: 60 31 02 06 n: PS Nguy h Thy Ngi hng dn: PGS.TS NGUYN CNH TON H Ni - 2015 MC LC M U Lý chn ti Lch s nghiờn cu Mc ớch v nhim v nghiờn cu i tng v phm vi nghiờn cu Phng phỏp nghiờn cu úng gúp khoa hc ca lun 7 Cu trỳc ca lun CHNG 1: CC NHN T TC NG TI CHNH SCH TRUNG ễNGCA LIấN BANG NGA, GIAI ON 2000 - 2015 1.1 Tỡnh hỡnh th gii v khu vc Trung ụng 15 nm u th k XXI 1.1.1 Tỡnh hỡnh th gii 1.1.2 Tỡnh hỡnh khu vc Trung ụng 12 1.2 Tỡnh hỡnh Liờn bang Nga v chớnh sỏch i ngoi ca Liờn bang Nga thi gian gn õy 18 1.2.1 Tỡnh hỡnh Liờn bang Nga 18 1.2.2 Chớnhsỏch i ngoica Nga t nm 2000 tr li õy 21 1.2.3 Quan h ca Liờn bang Nga i vi khu vc Trung ụng trc nm 2000 24 Kt lun chng 30 CHNG 2: CHNH SCH CA NGA TRUNG ễNGV QUAN H CA NGA VI MT S NC TRONG KHU VC 32 2.1 Mc tiờu v ch trng chớnh sỏch 32 2.2 Bin phỏp trin khai 33 2.2.1 V chớnh tr - ngoi giao 33 2.2.2 V nng lng 40 2.2.3 V kinh t, thng mi 41 2.2.4 V quc phũng - an ninh 43 2.3 Quan h ca Nga vi mt s nc khu vc 46 2.3.1 Quan h Nga - Iran 46 2.3.2 Quan h Nga - Syria 56 2.3.3 Quan h Nga - Israel 64 2.3.4 Quan h Nga - Iraq 71 2.3.5 Quan h Nga -Saudi Arabia 76 Kt lun chng 80 CHNG 3: NHNG TC NG V D BO CHNH SCH TRUNG ễNG CA LIấN BANG NGA TRONG THI GIAN TI 82 3.1 Nhng tỏc ng i vi Liờn bang Nga v khu vc Trung ụng 82 3.1.1 i vi Nga 82 3.1.2 i vi quan h ca Nga vi khu vc Trung ụng 94 3.1.3 i vi khu vc Trung ụng 98 3.2 D bỏo xu hng chớnh sỏch ca Nga i vi Trung ụng 103 3.2.1 Mt s yu t thun li v khú khn tỏc ng 103 3.2.2 D bỏo v xu hng chớnh sỏch ca Nga i vi khu vc Trung ụng thi gian ti 113 KT LUN 121 TI LIU THAM KHO 123 DANH MC CH VIT TT EU GCC GDP HBA IAEA IS KPRF LHQ NATO NIOC ODKB OIC OPEC SCO SIPRI SNG UAE UAV USD WB European Union Liờn minh chõu u Gulf Co-operation Council Hi ng Hp tỏc vựng Vnh Gross Domestic Product Tng sn phm quc ni Hi ng Bo an International Atomic Energy Agency C quan Nng lng Nguyờn t Quc t Islamic State T chc Nh nc Hi giỏo (t xng) Communist Party of the Russian Federation ng Cng sn Liờn bang Nga Liờn hp quc North Atlantic Treaty Organization Khi Hip c Bc i Tõy Dng National Iranian Oil Company Cụng ty du khớ quc gia Iran T chc Hip c An ninh Tp th Organisation of Islamic Cooperation T chc Hp tỏc Hi giỏo Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries T chc cỏc nc xut khu du la Shanghai Cooperation Organisation T chc Hp tỏc Thng Hi Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Vin Nghiờn cu Hũa bỡnh Quc t Xtckhụm Cng ng cỏc quc gia c lp United -rp Emirates Cỏc Tiu Vng quc -rp Thng nht Unmanned aerial vehicle Mỏy bay khụng ngi lỏi United States Dollar ụ-la M World Bank Ngõn hng Th gii M U Lý chn ti Trung ụng l khu vc cú v trớ a chin lc quan trng, tip giỏp chõu lc l chõu , chõu u v chõu Phi T sau Chin tranh Th gii ln th 2, Trung ụng luụn c bit n nh l mt khu vc giu cú v ti nguyờn thiờn nhiờn, c bit l v du m, vi tr lng chim gn 2/3 tng tr lng ó c phỏt hin ca ton th gii v sn xut khong 1/3 tng sn lng ton cu Trung ụng l khu vc sinh sng canhiu tc ngi; cỏi nụi ca ba tụn giỏo ln nht th gii (o Kito, o Hi v o Do Thỏi), ú o Hi nh hng n mi khớa cnh ca i sng xó hi khu vc.Tuy nhiờn, Trung ụng cng c coi l lũ la chin tranhkhi mụi trng an ninh khu vc luụn din bin phc tp, thng trc btn bitỡnh trng mõu thunsc tc, tụn giỏo sõu sc; ch ngha khng b, Hi giỏo cc oan; ti phm xuyờn quc gia; cỏc im núng v xung t v trang; nn tham nhng, tỡnh trng tht nghip, nghốo v phõn hoỏ xó hi ln Trung ụng luụn thu hỳt c s quan tõm, can d v cnh tranh nh hng ca cỏc cng quc th gii nh M, Nga, Trung Quc, EU, ú M luụn úng vai trũ l nhõn t ch cht, chi phi tỡnh hỡnh khu vc T Tng thng Putin lờn nm quyn (nm 2000), Liờn bang Nga ó dnh c nhng thnh tu quan trng trờn cỏc lnh vc (mụi trng chớnh tr xó hi nc ngy cng n nh; tim nng kinh t ln, tc phỏt trin kinh t c trỡ theo hng hin i hoỏ; tim lc v sc mnh quõn s c cng c; v th, vai trũ trờn trng quc t c tng cng), to nhng tin mi khụi phc v th cng quc th gii ca mỡnh Chớnh quyn Nga ó v ang cú s trin khai mnh m chớnh sỏch i ngoi phc v mc tiờu khụi phc v th cng quc th gii Chớnh sỏch i ngoi ca Liờn bang Nga ngy cng cú nh hng ln i vi trt t th gii a cc ang hỡnh thnh Ging nh cỏc nc ln khỏc, Trung ụng cú v trớ a chin lc quan trng chớnh sỏch khụi phc li v th cng quc ca Liờn bang Nga Gii lónh o Nga luụn coi Trung ụng l mt nhng khu vc cú v trớ a chin lc quan trng, ni cú mt lot cỏc nhõn t v hi t li ớch chớnh tr, kinh t v an ninh mang tớnh ton cu, khu vc v th gii Hi giỏo Mi bin chuyn khu vc ny cú nh hng sõu rng n mụi trng an ninh ton cu, ú cú Nga, bi vỡ khu vc ny cú nhng mi quan h c trc tip v giỏn tip ti li ớch an ninh, kinh t v chớnh tr ca Nga Vy mc tiờu, ch trng chớnh sỏch Trung ụng ca Liờn bang Ngal gỡ? Chớnh sỏch ú c th hin sao? Kt qu t c nh th no? Cú tỏc ng gỡ n tỡnh hỡnh khu vc, quc t v quan h ca Nga vi Trung ụng? Nhng ni dung ny cho thy, vic nghiờn cu v Chớnh sỏch Trung ụng ca Liờn bang Nga, giaion 2000 - 2015 cú ý ngha thc tin Nú khụng ch lm rừ ni dung chớnh sỏch ca Nga i vi khu vc Trung ụng giai on 2000-2015, m cũn l lun chng c s khoa hc, giỳp chỳng ta hiu rừ thờm v ng li chớnh sỏch i ngoi ca Nga núi chung Lch s nghiờn cu Trung ụng l mt khu vc nhiu tim nng nhng y bt n, cũn Nga li l nc ln ang tỡm li v th cng quc th gii, nờn c Trung ụng v Nga núi chung, cng nh chớnh sỏch i ngoi ca Nga núi riờng i vi khu vc Trung ụng luụn dnh c s quan tõm ca gii chuyờn gia, nghiờn cu, phõn tớch Vit Nam v th gii Chớnh sỏch Trung ụng ca Nga c phn ỏnh cỏc bi vit ng trờn cỏc chuyờn ngnhTp nghiờn cu Chõu Phi & Trung ụng, Tp Nghiờn cu chõu u nh: Chớnh sỏch i ngoi ca Nga ti Trung ụng di chớnh quyn Putin-Medvedev ca Lờ Duy Thng-Trn Minh Hựng (Tp nghiờn cu Chõu u,s thỏng 8/2012); Liờn bang Nga n lc trỡ li ớch Trung ụng ca V Thy Trang (Tp nghiờn cu Chõu Phi & Trung ụng, s thỏng 7/2013) Ngoi ra, mt s ni dung ca lun cũn c th hin cỏc bi dch thut t ngun bỏo nc ngoi, c ng trờn Ti liu tham kho c bit ca Thụng Tn xó Vit Nam nh: Hai lý khin Nga quay tr li Trung ụng (Ti liu tham kho c bit, s 246 ngy 11/09/2011);Nc Nga ti Trung ụng: S tr li ca mt siờu cng? (Ti liu tham kho c bit, s 230 ngy 25/8/2012) Bờn cnh ú l nhng ti liu nc ngoi ca cỏc hc gi quc t,vi nhng bi phõn tớch khỏ c th, chi tit nh: Russia and Middle East Policy: Story of Success and Growing Clout (Andrei Akulov; http://www.strategicculture.org); Russia and the -rp Spring (Alexey Malashenko; Carnegie Moscow Center, 10/2013); Russias role in the Middle East (Carleton J.Anderson; The Brookings institution, Brookings DOHA Center, 12/2013); Middle East policy of Russia (Center for Middle Eastern Strategic studies; 7/2012); Russia and the -rp Spring (Mark N Katz, Middle East Institute, 4/2012); Middle East Policy of Russia Under President Medvedev: Strategies, Institutes, Faces (Oleg Kolobov & Alexander Kornilov; Bilge Strateji, Cilt 2, Say1 4, Bahar 2011); La Russie et le moyen-Orient: Entre islamisme et occidentalisme (Andreù P Tsygankov, La politique ộtrangốre, 01/2013); La politique russe au Grand Moyen-Orient ou l'art d'ờtre l'amie de tout le monde (Mark N.Katz, Institut franỗais des relations internationales, Russie Nei.Visions, n49, 2010) ; Russia in the Middle East: Is Putin undertaking a New Strategy? (Robert O.Freedman, Middle East Institute, Lecture, 02/2005) Mc dự cha phn ỏnh y , c th v chi tit v chớnh sỏch Trung ụng ca Liờn bang Nga, nhng cỏc ngun thụng tin, ti liu ny l ht sc quý bỏu, cú ý ngha gi m ngi vit tham kho, nghiờn cu quỏ trỡnh trin khai thc hin ti lun Mc ớch v nhim v nghiờn cu - Phõn tớch v lm sỏng t cỏc mc tiờu, ch trng v bin phỏp ca Liờn bang Nga thc thi chớnh sỏch i ngoi i vi khu vc Trung ụng; ng thi ch nhng tỏc ng ca chớnh sỏch n tỡnh hỡnh khu vc, tỡnh hỡnh Nga v quan h ca Nga vi cỏc nc khu vc, cng nh tỏc ng n tỡnh hỡnh th gii - Lm rừ c s thc tin chớnh sỏch i ngoi ca Liờn bang Nga i vi khu vc Trung ụng, t ú a nhng nhn xột, ỏnh giỏ cng nh d bỏo v chớnh sỏch ny thi gian ti i tng v phm vi nghiờn cu - i tng nghiờn cu: Chớnh sỏch i ngoi ca Nga i vi khu vc Trung ụng v quan h ca Nga vi mt s nc khu vc - Phm vi thi gian nghiờn cu: Trong 15 nm u th k XXI, k t Putin lờn nm quyn Tng thng Nga (nm 2000) cho n nm 2015 Phng phỏp nghiờn cu Phng phỏp nghiờn cu quan h quc t l phng phỏp c bn thc hin lun Ngoi ra, lun vn dng linh hot cỏc phng phỏp lch s, phõn tớch, so sỏnh, lụ-gớch, tng hp, kim tra, ỏnh giỏ t liu, h thng húa v chuyờn gia úng gúp khoa hc ca lun - Nhng cp bỏch ca khu vc Trung ụng bi cnh quc t mi hin - Lm rừ hn mt vi v lý lun v thc tin chớnh sỏch i ngoi ca Nga i vi khu vc Trung ụng núi riờng v ng li i ngoi ca Nga núi chung, nhng nm u th k XXI - Lm rừ nhng s iu chnh v chớnh sỏch Trung ụng ca Liờn bang Nga, c th l giai on 2000 - 2015 - Cú th dựng lm ti liu tham kho cho sinh viờn, hc viờn chuyờn ngnh quan h quc t, cng nh nhng c gi quan tõm Cu trỳc ca lun Ngoi phn M u, Kt lun v Ti liu tham kho, lun c kt cu thnh chng: CHNG 1: CC NHN T TC NG TI CHNH SCH TRUNG ễNG CA LIấN BANG NGA, GIAI ON 2000 - 2015 CHNG 2: CHNH SCH TRUNG ễNG CA NGA V QUAN H CA NGA VI MT S NC TRONG KHU VC CHNG 3: NHNG TC NG V D BO CHNH SCH TRUNG ễNG CA LIấN BANG NGA TRONG THI GIAN TI CHNG 1: CC NHN T TC NG TI CHNH SCH TRUNG ễNG CA LIấN BANG NGA, GIAI ON 2000 - 2015 1.1 Tỡnh hỡnh th gii v khu vc Trung ụng 15 nm u th k XXI 1.1.1 Tỡnh hỡnh th gii Trong 15 nm u th k XXI, th gii ó chng kin nhng bin i to ln, sõu sc, nh hng ton din v mnh m n mi mt i sng chớnh tr-xó hi, kinh t v an ninh-quc phũng ca cỏc khu vc v quc gia, ú cú Trung ụng v Liờn bang Nga Hin nay, th gii ang thi k chuyn i, quỏ sang mt trt t mi, theo hng t n cc sang a cc ú, nhng bin i cú tớnh cht an xen, tỏc ng nhiu chiu, nhiu tuyn lờn cỏc mi quan h song phng v a phng ca cỏc dõn tc, cỏc quc gia v khu vc trờn th gii Cc din th gii a cc ngy cng rừ nột hn, xu th dõn ch húa quan h quc t tip tc phỏt trin nhng cỏc nc ln gi vai trũ chi phi cỏc mi quan h quc t Mt s cng quc v trung tõm quyn lc mi ni lờn ngy cng úng vai trũ quan trng khu vc v trờn th gii Tng quan lc lng trờn th gii ang cú s thay i, ngy cng cú li cho cỏc lc lng u tranh cho mt th gii mi cụng bng, bỡnh ng v tin b xó hi Cuc u tranh ca nhõn dõn cỏc nc trờn th gii vỡ hũa bỡnh, c lp dõn tc, dõn sinh v tin b xó hi tip tc phỏt trin Cuc u tranh giai cp v dõn tc din bin phc Trong bi cnh so sỏnh lc lng trờn th gii thay i mnh m, cỏc nc ln chỳ trng iu chnh chin lc v chớnh sỏch i ngoi theo hng tng cng quan h nhm phỏt huy nh hng, cnh tranh li ớch v mi mt v to lp v th cú li nht quỏ trỡnh hỡnh http://www.tapchicongsan.org.vn/Home/The-gioi-van-de-sukien/2012/16065/Sac-lenh-ve-Chinh-sach-doi-ngoai-cua-Ngatrong-nhiem-ky.aspx, 14/5/2012 14 Nhn m, Nga cn lm gỡ thnh mt ch nng lng?, http://motthegioi.vn/quoc-te/ho-so/nga-can-lam-gi-de-thanh-motde-che-nang-luong-172588.html, 05/04/2015 15 Lờ Minh Giang (2012), Nột mi chớnh sỏch i ngoi ca Liờn bang Nga di thi Tng thng D.Medvedev (2008-2012), Tp nghiờn cu Chõu u, s 10 (145) thỏng 10/2012, Tr.65-71 16 Ngõn Giang, Phng Tõy git mỡnh nhiu nc mi Nga xõy cn c quõn s, http://vov.vn/the-gioi/quan-sat/phuong-tay-giatminh-khi-nhieu-nuoc-moi-nga-xay-can-cu-quan-su-391102.vov 17 Nguyn An H (2010), Nhỡn li 10 nm chớnh sỏch i ngoi ca Liờn bang Nga v quan h Vit Nam - Liờn bang Nga nhng nm u th k XXI,Tp nghiờn cu Chõu u, s (114) thỏng 3/2010, Tr.13-21 18 Phm H, Nga vin tr quõn s Iraq thờm sc chng li phin quõn IS, http://vov.vn/thegioi/nga-vien-tro-quan-su-de-iraq-themsuc-chong-lai-phien-quan-is-402852.vov, 22/05/2015 19 Phm Thanh H - Trn Th Thanh Tõm (2013), Tỏc ng ca Mựa xuõn -rp i vi khu vc Bc Phi - Trung ụng, Tp nghiờn cu Chõu Phi & Trung ụng, s 10 (98) thỏng 10/2013, Tr.12-18 20 Bựi Hin (2008), Nc Nga vi th gii v Vit Nam, Tp nghiờn cu Chõu u, s (90) thỏng 3/2008, Tr.3-9 21 Nguyn Thanh Hin (2007), S lờn ca nc Nga thi Putin, Tp nghiờn cu Chõu u, s 11 (86) thỏng 11/2007, Tr.56-67 22 Nguyn Thanh Hin (2013), Mt s nhỡn nhn v ỏnh giỏ v bin 124 ng chớnh tr - xó hi ti Bc Phi - Trung ụng t thỏng 12/2010 n nay, Tp nghiờn cu Chõu Phi & Trung ụng, s 08 (96) thỏng 8/2013, Tr.3-11 23 o Hựng (2008), Nhng thnh tu ca Liờn bang Nga nm di s lónh o ca Tng thng V.Putin, Tp nghiờn cu Chõu u, s (91) thỏng 4/2008, Tr.71-74 24 c Hựng, M cay ng nhỡn Nga trin khai hp ng vu khng 4,3 t USD vi Iraq, An ninh Th ụ, 18/10/2013 25 Nguyn Hựng, Tha thun ht nhõn Iran l chin thng cho c Nga v M, http://vov.vn/the-gioi/quan-sat/thoa-thuan-hat-nhan-iran-lachien-thang-cho-ca-nga-va-my-414383.vov, 16/07/2015 26 Quang Huy, Thy gỡ t thụng ip Liờn bang ca Tng thng Nga Putin?, Nhõn dõn, ngy 17/12/2012 27 Quang Huy, Nc Nga hin i húa quc phũng theo hng no?, http://www.nhandan.com.vn/mobile/_mobile_thegioi/_mobile_nhan dinhtulieu/item/20720302.html, 8/07/13 28 Nguyn Cụng Khanh-Hong Mnh Hựng (2010), Tỡm hiu nguyờn nhõn phc hi v phỏt trin kinh t Liờn bang Nga di thi Tng thng V.Putin (2000 - 2008), Tp nghiờn cu Chõu u, s (114) thỏng 3/2010, Tr.46-55 29 Trn Khỏnh, S suy gim tng i v th ca M thp niờn u th k XXI, http://tapchicongsan.org.vn/Home/The-gioi-vande-su-kien/2010/1911/Su-suy-giam-tuong-doi-vi-the-cua-My-trongthap-nien.aspx, 02/8/2010 30 Ngc Khng, Nga sn sng bo tr tin trỡnh hũa bỡnh IsraelPalestine, http://vov.vn/thegioi/nga-san-sang-bao-tro-tien-trinh-hoabinh-israelpalestine-283816.vov, 04/10/2013 125 31 Hunh Linh, M v Nga - t ng minh tim nng n K thự chin lc, http://infonet.vn/my-va-nga-tu-dong-minh-tiem-nangden-ke-thu-chien-luoc-post153386.info, 12/12/2014 32 T.Minh, Iraq hoan nghờnh Nga xúa n, Ngi Lao ng, ngy 09/02/2008 33 Tho Nguyờn, T l ng h Tng thng Nga Putin cao k lc, http://laodong.com.vn/the-gioi/ty-le-ung-ho-tong-thong-nga-putincao-ky-luc-357009.bld, 24/07/2015 34 Thỏi Nguyn, Chớnh sỏch mi ca Nga vi Trung ụng, http://thegioi.baotintuc.vn/phan-tichnhan-dinh/chinh-sach-moi-cuanga-voi-trung-dong-20150420205445035.htm, 20/04/2015 35 Nguyn Nhõm, Chớnh sỏch i ngoi tớch cc ca Nga, http://www.nhandan.com.vn/thegioi/nhan-dinh-tu-lieu/item/98502.html, 23/02/2013 36 Hng Nhung, Saudi Arabia chớnh thc t chi gh thnh viờn HBA LHQ, http://vov.vn/thegioi/saudi--rpia-chinh-thuc-tu- choi-ghe-thanh-vien-hdba-lhq-286037.vov, 19/10/2013 37 Nguyn Hng Quõn (2012), Bin ng chớnh tr v xung t v trang ti Bc Phi - Trung ụng: Mt s suy ngh v s nghip bo v T quc Vit Nam xó hi ch ngha tỡnh hỡnh mi,Tp nghiờn cu Chõu Phi & Trung ụng, s 10 (86), 10/2012, Tr.3-8 38 Minh Thỏi, Nht Bn n nhiu nht th gii, http://baodatviet.vn/kinh-te/tai-chinh/nhat-ban-no-nhieu-nhat-thegioi-3276957, 13/07/2015 39 Hoi Thanh, Saudi Arabia l M quay sang liờn minh vi Nga, Tin tc, ngy 22/06/2015 40 Bựi Th Tho (2013), Sc mnh quõn s Liờn bang Nga sau Chin 126 tranh Lnh (1991 - 2012), Tp nghiờn cu Chõu u, s (148) thỏng 1/2013, Tr.39-46 41 D.Tho, Saudi Arabia bỏc b sỏng kin lp liờn minh ca Nga, Phỏp lut thnh ph H Chớ Minh, ngy 13/08/2015 42 Lờ Duy Thng(2012), Chớnh sỏch i ngoi ca Nga ti Trung ụng di k nguyờn Putin - Medvedev, Tp nghiờn cu Chõu Phi & Trung ụng, s 09 (85) thỏng 9/2012, Tr.28-32 43 Lờ Duy Thng - Trn Minh Hựng (2012), Chớnh sỏch i ngoi ca Nga ti Trung ụng di chớnh quyn Putin - Medvedev, Tp nghiờn cu Chõu u, s (143) thỏng 8/2012, Tr.35-40 44 Trn Minh Tn, Khng hong nng lng ton cu v la chn ca nhõn loi, http://www.tapchicongsan.org.vn/Home/The-gioi-vande-su-kien/2008/1284/Khung-hoang-nang-luong-toan-cau-va-luachon-cua-nhan-loai.aspx, 14/4/2008 45 V Thy Trang (2013), Liờn bang Nga n lc trỡ li ớch Trung ụng, Tp nghiờn cu Chõu Phi & Trung ụng, s 07 (95) thỏng 7/2013, Tr.29-36 46 T Minh Tun (2005), Mt s nguyờn nhõn v tỡnh hỡnh bt n ti Trung ụng, Tp nghiờn cu Quc t, s 04, Tr.42-52 47 Nguyn Khỏnh Võn(2012), Chin lc ngoi giao ca M i vi Trung ụng v Bc Phi di thi Tng thng Obama, Tp nghiờn cu Chõu Phi & Trung ụng, s 09(85), 9/2012, Tr.19-27 48 ng V, Nga ngh h tr thờm v khớ cho Iraq chng khng b, An ninh Th ụ, ngy 22/05/2015 49 ng V, Khụng gỡ ngn c Saudi Arabia mua v khớ Nga, An ninh Th ụ, 22/06/2015 50 ng V, Syria mun vo Liờn minh kinh t -u Nga dn u, 127 http://anninhthudo.vn/su-kien/syria-muon-vao-lien-minh-kinh-teaau-do-nga-dan-dau/622916.antd, 22/7/2015 51 TTXVN (1973), Trung ụng v ngun gc cỏc cuc xung t gia cỏc nc A-rp v Israel 52 TTXVN (2009), Chớnh sỏch i ngoi t thi hu Xụ Vit ti nc Nga ngy nay, TLTKB, s thỏng 4/2009, Tr.1-13 53 TTXVN (2011), Hai lý khin Nga quay tr li Trung ụng, TLTKB, s 246 ngy 11/09/2011, Tr.1-6 54 TTXVN (2012), Nga: 10 thnh tu kinh t ni bt ca ụng Putin nm trờn cng v Th tng, TLTKB, s 122 ngy 9/5/2012, Tr.1-9 55 TTXVN (2012), S n lỳc Nga phi tớnh n vic t b Assad, TLTKB, s 215 ngy 10/8/2012, Tr.8-10 56 TTXVN (2012), Nc Nga ti Trung ụng: S tr li ca mt siờu cng?, TLTKB, s 230 ngy 25/8/2012, Tr.5-9 57 TTXVN (2012), Quan h Nga - M xung quanh Xyri, TLTKB, s 240 ngy 5/9/2012, Tr.11-15 58 TTXVN (2013), Nga - Xyri cựng chung cuc chin?, TLTKB, s 001 ngy 2/01/2013, Tr.22-24 59 TTXVN (2013), Trung ụng: Khụng cú xuõn no phớa trc, TLTKB, s 097,ngy 12/04/13, Tr.19-24 60 TTXVN (2013), Nga vi cuc xung t Xyri, TLTKB, s 125 ngy 13/5/2013, Tr.21-24 61 TTXVN (2013), Trung ụng: Nhng thỏch thc i vi Nh Trng, Cuc chin gia ngi Sunni v ngi Shiite Trung ụng, TLTKB, s 137, ngy 25/5/2013, Tr.1-24 62 TTXVN (2013), Vai trũ 128 ca cỏc cng quc cuc khng hong Xyri, TLTKB, s142, 30/5/2013, Tr.1-21 63 TTXVN (2013), Xung quanh vic Nga bỏn tờn la S-300 cho Chớnh ph Xyri, TLTKB, s 160, 17/6/2013, Tr.1-5 64 TTXVN (2013), Tng lai no cho khu vc Trung ụng?, ỏnh giỏ v Mựa xuõn Arp, TLTKB, s 195 ngy 22/7/2013, Tr.1-24 65 TTXVN (2013), Nga v Trung Quc hỡnh thnh trc mi chng M v phng Tõy, TLTKB, s 198 ngy 25/7/2013, Tr.16-20 66 TTXVN (2013), Quan im ca Trung Quc v Nga v Syria, TLTKB, s 243 ngy 9/9/2013, Tr.20-23 67 TTXVN (2013), Syria: Phộp th cho mi quan h Nga-M (phn u), Thỏch thc vic thc hin tha thun Nga-M v v khớ húa hc ca Syria, TLTKB, s 257 ngy 23/9/2013, Tr.1-24 68 TTXVN (2013), Syria: Phộp th cho mi quan h Nga-M (phn cui), TLTKB, s 258 ngy 24/9/2013, Tr.1-12 69 TTXVN (2013), Cuc khng hong Syria v cc din Trung ụng (phn u), TLTKB, s 260, 26/9/2013, Tr.1-22 70 TTXVN (2013), Cuc khng hong Syria v cc din Trung ụng(phn cui), TLTKB, s 261, 27/9/2013, Tr.1-22 71 TTXVN (2013), K hoch Nga-M lm thay i cuc chi ti Syria, TLTKB, s 262, 28/9/2013, Tr.1-11 72 TTXVN (2013), Mi liờn h Th Nh K-Nga-Iran: Nhng ng lc sc mnh u-, TLTKB, s 278 ngy 14/10/2013, Tr.10-28 73 TTXVN (2013), Trung ụng - tõm im bt n nh ca th gii, í ca M Trung ụng, TLTKB, s 286, 22/10/2013, Tr.1-24 74 TTXVN (2013), Chin lc ca Nga v M i vi Iran v Syria, TLTKB, s 293, 29/10/2013, Tr.16-24 75 TTXVN (2013), Bỏo cỏo c bit: Mựa xuõn A-rp, TLTKB, 129 Chuyờn thỏng 11/03, Tr.1-97 76 TTXVN (2013), Syria: Thỏch thc no i vi Nga?, TLTKB, s 337 ngy 12/12/2013, Tr.12-24 77 TTXVN (2013), Nc Nga trờn ng tr li, TLTKB, s 351 ngy 26/12/2013, Tr.16-24 78 TTXVN (2014), Vai trũ ca Nga v M cuc khng hong Syria, TLTKB, s 003 ngy 4/01/2014, Tr.18-28 79 TTXVN (2014), Nc Nga ang tỡm li c mỡnh trờn bn th gii, TLTKB, s 036 ngy 15/02/2014, Tr.6-15 80 TTXVN (2014), trỡ quyn lc ca Nga: Putin ó qua mt phng Tõy nh th no?, TLTKB, s 060, 11/3/2014, Tr.11-24 81 TTXVN (2014), Nga-Trung ụng: Gia ch ngha Hi giỏo v ch ngha Tõy phng, TLTKB, s 101 ngy 22/4/2014, Tr.11-24 82 TTXVN (2014), Nga-Israel: Nhng thỏch thc ca mt mi quan h mõu thun,TLTKB, s 112 ngy 8/5/2014, Tr.14-24 83 TTXVN (2014), Cng thng Nga-phng Tõy: Iran, ỏt ch bi rt nguy him ca Nga, TLTKB, s 139 ngy 4/6/2014, Tr.16-24 84 TTXVN (2015), Xung quanh vic Nga tng cng can d vo Syria, TLTKB, s253 ngy 01/10/2015 85 TTXVN (2015), Nhng thỏch thc nc Nga phi i mt, TLTKB, s259 ngy 07/10/2015 86 TTXVN (2015), Syria trc nguy c tan v, TLTKB, s260 ngy 08/10/2015 87 TTXVN (2015), sc Nga-M Syria v tng lai ca cuc khng hong, TLTKB, s262 ngy 10/10/2015 88 TTXVN (2015), Liu cuc chin Syria cú gõy chin tranh th gii?, TLTKB, s266 ngy 14/10/2015 130 89 TTXVN (2015), Chin dch ca Nga Syria lm thay i bc tranh chin lc ti Trung ụng, TLTKB, s277, 25/10/2015 90 TTXVN (2015), S tht v chin lc ca Nga ti Syria, TLTKB, s281 ngy 29/10/2015 91 TTXVN (2015), Hot ng ca Nga ti Syria: Nhng h qu i vi khu vc, TLTKB, s291 ngy 08/11/2015 92 Chớnh sỏch i ngoi ca Nga ti Trung ụng di chớnh quyn Putin-Mevedev,http://nghiencuulichsu.com/2013/07/01/chinh-sachdoi-ngoai-cua-nga-tai-trung-dong-duoi-chinh-quyen-putinmevedev/, 01/07/2013 93 Cn ỏc mng ca phng Tõy ang hin hin: Nga s xõy dng cnc quõn s ti Syria, http://vn.sputniknews.com/world/20150327/122095.html 94 Iraq ca tng v khớ Nga l khc tinh ca phin quõn IS, http://www.tienphong.vn/hanh-trang-nguoi-linh/iraq-ca-tung-vukhi-nga-la-khac-tinh-cua-phien-quan-is-891556.tpo 95 Khụng cú du hiu Iran ch to v khớ ht nhõn, http://www.vietnamplus.vn/khong-co-dau-hieu-iran-che-tao-vu-khihat-nhan/92884.vnp, 20/05/11 96 Liờn bang Nga tuyờn b cú li ớch quc gia Syria, http://www.vietnamplus.vn/lien-bang-nga-tuyen-bo-co-loi-ichquoc-gia-o-syria/218725.vnp, 03/09/13 97 Nga cụng nhn quyn s hu ht nhõn dõn s Iran, http://www.vietnamplus.vn/nga-cong-nhan-quyen-so-huu-hat-nhandan-su-iran/190569.vnp, 08/03/13 98 Nga mun hin din nhiu hn ti Iraq, http://www.baoyenbai.com.vn/18/42047/Nga_muon_hien_dien_nhi 131 eu_hon_tai_Iraq, 25/3/2008 99 Nga tuyờn b s tip tc bỏn v khớ cho Syria, http://www.vietnamplus.vn/nga-tuyen-bo-se-van-tiep-tuc-ban-vukhi-cho-syria/115792.vnp, 14/11/2011 100 Phn ng ca lónh o cỏc nc v vic M khai chin, http://vnexpress.net/tin-tuc/the-gioi/phan-ung-cua-lanh-dao-cacnuoc-ve-viec-my-khai-chien-1991324.html, 20/3/2003 101 Quan h c bit Nga - Syria ó l quỏ kh, http://laodong.com.vn/the-gioi/quan-he-dac-biet-nga-syria-da-laqua-khu-93441.bld, 28/11/2012 Ting Anh 102 Achraf El Bahi (2012), Russia protecting its Middle East allies, 15/01/2012,http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/com ment/russia-protecting-its-middle-east-allies 103 Andrei Akulov (2013), Russia and Middle East Policy: Story of Success and Growing Clout, http://www.strategicculture.org/news/2013/11/21/russia-and-middle-east-policy-storyof-success-and-growing-clout.html 104 Andrej Kreutz, Russia in the Middle East: Friend or Foe?, Praeger, 1st Edition, 30/11/2006 105 Andrew C.Kuchins & Igor A.Zevelev (2012), Russian Foreign Policy: Continuity in change, The Washington Quarterly, Vol.35, No.1 106 Alexey Malashenko (2013), Russia and the -rp Spring, Carnegie Moscow Center, 10/2013 107 Ariel Cohen, How the U.S Should Respond to Russia's Unhelpful Role in the Middle East, The BACKGROUNDER No.2662, 8/3/2012 132 Heritage Foundation, 108 Brett A.Schneider (2012), RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY IN THE MIDDLE EAST: PRIORITIES AND EFFECTIVENESS,Master thesis, University of Denver, 6/2012 109 Carleton J.Anderson (2013), RUSSIAS ROLE IN THE MIDDLE EAST, THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION BROOKINGS DOHA CENTER, 09/12/2013 110 Center for Middle Eastern Strategic studies (2012), Middle East policy of Russia, ORSAM Report No:125 & The Black Sea International Report No:23, 7/2012 111 Chatham House (2009), REP Seminar Summary: Russia, the Middle East and Political Islam: Internal and External Challenges 112 David P Goldman (2013), Russia's New Middle Eastern Role, http://www.rightsidenews.com/2013061132687/world/geopolitical/r ussias-new-middle-eastern-role.html, 11/6/2013 113 Dmitri Trenin (2010), Russias Policy in the Middle east: Prospects for consensus and conflict with the United States, A century foundation Report,http://carnegie.ru/2010/03/02/russia-s-policy-in-middle-eastprospects-for-consensus-and-conflict-with-united-states 114 Ekaterina Stepanova, Russias Middle East Policy: Old Divisions or New?, Institute of World Economy and International Relations/Moscow, PONARS Policy Memo No.429, 12/2006 115 Greg Forbes (2014), Russia in the Middle East: a well-played hand disguises fading fortunes, http://www.opendemocracy.net/od- russia/greg-forbes/russia-in-middle-east-well-played-handdisguises-fading-fortunes%20syria, 5/3/2014 116 Ilya Bourtman (2006), PUTIN AND RUSSIAS MIDDLE EASTERN POLICY, The Global Research in International Affairs 133 (GLORIA) Center, 1/6/2006 117 Lawrence Solomon (2013),Russias rise - a threat to the West?, Financial Post, 8/11/2013 118 LI Xing & MA Yuan (2010), A Comparative Analysis of USRussia Middle East Energy Strategy, Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies (in Asia) Vol 4, No.3, 2010, p.81-102 119 Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya, The Eurasian Triple Entente: Touch Iran in a War, You Will Hear Russia and China, Strategic Culture Foundation, 21/01/2012 120 Marcin Kaczmarski (2011), Russias Middle East policy after the -rp revolutions,The Centre for Eastern Studies (CES) 121 Mark N Katz (1998), POST-SOVIET RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY TOWARD THE MIDDLE EAST, The Soviet and PostSoviet Review, 23 No.2 (1998), p.229-246 122 Mark N Katz (2012), Moscow and the Middle East: Repeat Performance?, http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/number/Moscow-and-theMiddle-East-Repeat-Performance-15690 123 Mark N Katz (2012), Russia and the -rp Spring, Middle East Institute, 3/4/2012 124 Muharrem Erenler (2012), RUSSIAS -RP SPRING POLICY, Bilge Strateji; Spring 2012, 3/2012, Vol.4 Issue 6, p.167-191 125 Nikolay Kozhanov, Russia and Eurasia Programme Meeting Summary: Russias Policy Towards the Middle East, Chatham House, 19/11/2012 126 Njdeh Asisian (2013), Russia & Iran: Strategic Alliance or Marriage of Convenience,Small Wars Journal, 23/11/2013 127 Nourhan El-Sheikh (2012), Russian 134 Position on the - rpRevolutions, Al Jazeera Centre for Studies, 23/05/2011 128 Oleg Kolobov& Alexander Kornilov (2011), Middle East Policy of Russia Under President Medvedev: Strategies, Institutes, Faces, Bilge Strateji, Cilt 2, Say1 4, Bahar 2011, p.19-34 129 Olena Bagno, Russia in the Middle East: An Unlikely Comeback,The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), Strategic Assessment, Volume 12, No.2, 8/2009 130 Orkhan Gafarli, Russian foreign policy in light of changing balances in the Middle East, TURKISH POLICY QUARTERLY, Volume 10 Number 4, p.141-149 131 Paul Rivlin (2005), The Russian Economy and Arms Exports to the Middle East, Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies (JCSS)/Tel Aviv University, Memorandum No 79,11/2005 132 PAVEL K BAEV (2011), Russias Counter-Revolutionary Stance toward the -rp Spring, Insight Turkey, Vol.13, No.3, 2011 133 Per Jửnsson (2013), Russias comeback in the Middle East, http://www.yourmiddleeast.com/features/russias-comeback-in-themiddle-east_19632 134 Phil Stewart, Pentagon chief tells Saudi Arabia: Iran threat is shared concern, http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/07/22/uk-iran-nuclear- us-saudi-idUK, 22/07/2015 135 Pieter D.Wezeman & Siemon T.Wezeman, Trends in international arms transfers 2014, SIPRI Fact Sheet, 3/2015 136 Primoz Manfreda, Russia's Middle East Influence: Is Russia a Threat to US Interests in the Middle East?, http://middleeast.about.com/od/middleeast101/tp/Russias-MiddleEast-Influence.html 135 137 Richard F Grimmett & Paul K Kerr, Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations (2001-2011), Congressional Research Service (CRS), Report for Congress (US Congress) 138 Robert Freedman (2007), The Russian Resurgence in the Middle East, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly, Volume 5, No.3 139 Robert Freedman (2003),RussianPolicy Toward the Middle East Under Putin: The Impact of 9/11 and The War in Iraq, Turkish Journal of International Relations, Vol Issue 2, 6/2003 140 Robert Freedman (2005), Russia in the Middle East: Is Putin undertaking a New Strategy? Middle East Institute, Lecture 141 Robert Freedman (2010), Russia, Israel and the -rp-Israeli Conflict: The Putin Years, The Middle East Policy Council , Fall 2010, Volume XVII, No.3 142 Vitaly Naumkin, Look for more assertive Russia in Middle East,http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/03/crimeamiddle-east-afghanistan-russia-us.html, 19/3/2014 143 Zvi Magen (2011), Russia in the New Middle East, The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), INSS Insight No.252, 13/4/2011 144 Zvi Magen (2011), The -rp Spring and Russian Policy in the Middle East, INSS, INSS Insight No.282, 20/9/2011 145 Zvi Magen (2013), Russia and the Middle East: Policy Challenges, Institute for National Security Studies, Memorandum No 127 146 Military Balance 2014, International Institute for Strategic Studies 147 International Trade Statistics Yearbook, UN COMTRADE 148 Human Development Report 2014, United Nationals Development Programme, http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/human-development136 report-2014 149 IMF, World Economic Outlook April 2015, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/pdf/text.pdf 150 OPEC, Annual Statistical Bulletin 2014,http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/do wnloads/publications/ASB2014.pdf 151 Russia in the Middle East: Return of the bear, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24944325 152 Russia: National Security Strategy to 2020, 12/5/2009, http://www.isn.ethz.ch/DigitalLibrary/Publications/Detail/?id=1549 153 Russian Military Politicsand Russias 2010 Defense Doctrine, Strategic StudiesInstitute (SSI), 3/2011, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB1050.pdf 154 The Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/2010russia_military_doctrine 155 The Ministry of Foreign Affairsof The Russian Federation, Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation, http://www.mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/0/76389FEC168189ED44257B2E0039 156 World Development indicators database, World Bank, http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-developmentindicators 157 World Population Data Sheet 2015, Population Reference Bureau, http://www.prb.org/Publications/Datasheets/2015/2015-worldpopulation-data-sheet.aspx, thỏng 8/2015 Ting Phỏp 158 Macha Fogel, quoi joue la Russie au Moyen-Orient?, http://www.slate.fr/story/20525/russie-moyen-orient-nucleaire-iran137 israel-liban-palestine 159 Andreù P Tsygankov (2013), La Russie et le moyen-Orient: Entre islamisme et occidentalisme, La politique ộtrangốre, 01/2013 160 Bachir El Khoury, Syrie: Les raisons de l'obstination de Poutine, http://www.slate.fr/story/77394/syrie-russie-poutine 161 Fiodor Loukianov (2013), La Russie au Moyen-Orient: Une Bataille de principes?, La politique ộtrangốre, 25/03/13, p.330-338 162 Gilles TROUDE (2005), Le retour de la Russie au MoyenOrient?Gộostratộgiques, n08,20/7/2005, p.133-157 163 Mark N.Katz (2010), La politique russe au Grand Moyen-Orient ou l'art d'ờtre l'amie de tout le monde, Institut franỗais des relations internationales, Russie.Nei.Visions, n49, 4/2010 164 Salomộ STOIKOVITCH (2012), Relations Israởl - Russie : alliance ou dộfiance?, http://www.diploweb.com/Relations-Israel-Russiealliance.html Trang Web 165 http://www.census.gov/ 166 https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/ 167 http://eng.kremlin.ru/ 168 http://www.imf.org/external/index.htm 169 http://www.intracen.org/country/russian-federation/ 170 http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/202.htm 171 http://www.sipri.org/databases 172 http://www.usaid.gov/where-we-work/middle-east 173 http://www.worldbank.org/ 174 http://www.trademap.org/Bilateral_TS.aspx) 175 http://www.trademap.org/Bilateral_TS.aspx) 138