TAl CHiNH w£~~~TI11 12,5%trong tong tri gia hang nh~p kh§unam 1989 nhU'ngda tang len 22,7% vao dau nam 1991 Ba Lan,trong thang dau nam 1991, hangtieu dung.'trong hang nh~p kh§udi:itang tCt18,8% len 31:6% Tinhtren ty I~ tang tnrdng, doi vai Bulgaria,Czechoslovakia,Hungary, Poland,Romania,va Lien Xo (cG), hangtieu dung co xu hLfangtang nhanh nhat tong so hang nh?pkh~u nam 1992,tren ca cong ngh~va tLfli~u san xuat12 a D~ doi vai tinh tr~ng chay nguen Il,J'Cra ben ngoai nhU'ng nam80 bu()c Chinh phu Nam TLf phaithl,J'Chi~n cac bi~n phap rat (4) lam nhLf v~y, gan nhLf h9 dLfgc doanhnghi'p Ng nan day dLfagi[(a cacdoanh nghi~pphat sinh nguyennhan Tha nhat, h~ thong cG, cac DNNN da rat m~t moi d~ dap ltQg cac chi tieu dLfgcgiao Khi h9 da "General (5) China, Macroeconomic Stability in a Decentralized Economv, The World Bank, 1995,trang xiv (6) Mckinnon, Ronald I" Financial Growth and Macroeconomic Stabilitvin China 1978 -1992, Imolications for Russia and Other Transitional Economies Journal of comparative economics, Josef C" Barada (ed.), Vol 18, 1994, trang 438 (7) On KitTam, Financial Reform in ~trang 32 (8) Mckinnon, Ronald I "Financial Growth and Macroeconomic Stabilityin China, 1978- 1992:Implicationsfor Russia and Other Transitional Economies", Journal oof Comparative Economics, Vol 18,1994, trang 463 (9) Nut;, Domenico Mario, "Stabilization and Sequencing in the Reformof SocialistEconomic", in Simon Commander (ed.), Mana9in9 Inflationin Socialist Economics in Transition The World Bank, 1991.trang 136 (10) China Macroeconomic Stabilitv in a Decentralized Economv The World Bank, 1995,trang 16 (11) McCarthy, F Desmond (et 01), External Shocks and Performance Resoonses durina Svstem Transition.The Case of Ukraine Policy Research WorkingPaper No 1361,TheWorldBank, 1994 (12) Amsden, Alice H" The Market Meets its Match, Restructurina the Economies of Eastern Eurooe Hcward UniversityPress, 1994,trang 102 Word Bank, 1991 trang (2) Amsden, Micheal (ed.), Economic Transition in Eastern Eurooe Blackwellpublichers, 1995,trang 23 m~nhd~ can bang cancanthanh toan.ChLfelngtrinh dieu chinh bao gempha gia rat m~rih va, trLfactien la giam m~nh hang nh~p kh~u ThOngqua cac bi~nphap dod~lam tang th~ng dLf can can vang lai, trongthl,J'C te, hau nhLfngay sau do, (1) Roe, Alan, ''Managing Inflation in in Simon ho~td(mg kinh te suy thoai va I~m Socialist Economies ", Commander (ed.), Managing Inflation in phatda tang len nhanh chong Socialist economies in Transition, The Nq n&n day duo giita e6e Ellman, Aspects of Transition ", in P.H.Admiraal toan tll di?ngva Nha nLfacdam bao vi~c toan cuoi cung cho h9 Trong qua trinh chuy~n doi, rat nhieu DNN~ da ngU'ngthanh toan cho ngLfCJi cung cap, ho~c vi h9 thieu tien ho~cvi h9 thayco Igi cac bi~n phap ph~t khong co hi~u IIICva vi~cch~mtn~thanhtoan56 lam giam gia tri thl,J'Cte cua cac khoan toan mi?t moi trLfCJng I~m phat cao Tha hai, chinh sach tien t~ that ch~t da dLfgccac nLfac XHCN ap dt:mg cac chLfelngtrinh on dinh, di:i khuyen khich cac doanh nghi~p tim kiem cac nguon tai trg phi ngan hang do, lam tang ng nan gi[(a cac doanh nghi~p.Cac khoan ng nan gi[(a cac doanh nghi~p cang tang gay ap IIICcho Chinh phu va Ngan hang TrungLfelngphai tai tai trg maden ILfgtno gay ap Il,J'C I~m phat.8 Alice H (eds.) The Market Meets its Match Restructurina the Economies of Eastern Eurooe, Harvard University Press, 1994, trang 31 (3) Aslund, Anders, "lessons of the First Four Years of Systemic Change in Eastern Europe", Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol 19, 1994, trang 26 Kinhnlhiem mol so n.oc Ironl viee nanl cao nanll.c lai chinh va ~ha nanl canh Iranhcua nlan hanllh.onl L ':;;T1lhenao de tang von tl,J'co luon la mi?t van de quan tr9ng d~t doi vai cac ngan hang thLfelng m~i (NHTIy1),day la Cd Sd quan tr9ng nhat d~ tang kha nang c~Qh tranh va bao dam ho~t di?ng ngan hang c6 hi~u qua Hi~n nay, theo NHNN thi ty I~ an toan von dLfgc phan anh qua ty I~ von tl,J'co tren tong nguon von tinh binh quan cua cac NHTM Nha nLfac chi d~t 3,72%, rat thap so vai chu~n ml,J'c quoc te la 8%1 TS D6 Van Due * cac NHTM theo tieu chuan quoc te, kho.angmi?t ty USD,cM NhLf v~y, cung vai nhU'nggiai yeu bang cach phat hanh trai phieu phap doi mai quan Iy, doi mai va ap d~c bi~t cua Bi?Hi chinh Cho den dyng cong ngh~ hi~n d~i, xuly ng tMi di~m nam 2003, Chinh pM da ton d9ng, tang von tl,J'co la mi?t cap bo sung cho ngan hang dieuki~ncanthietd~ chunghuong" Do la phan Ung,trong sl,J'tac d9ng t6ng hnghuong tU cac cu(>c sap nh$p,than tlnh cac ngan hang co th~ chua phat huy sau tien hanh ma phai sau m(>ttMi gian nhatdinh mai thay du~c Cac ngan hang Ian da nang co cac 10i?ihinh dich vl,l phong pM va trai r(>ngtren phi?m vi dja Iy r(>ng lan, co h~ s6 pie Ian hdn so vai cac nganhangchuyendoanh ho~chOi?t d(>ngtren phi?mvi d!a Iy h~p m(>t vung nao Ngay nay, My cung nhu tren the giai it co t$p doan nao co th~ so sanh du'9cvai t$p doan Citigroup ve phi?mvi dja Iy cua thi truong, no hi~n di~n trEm 100 nuac, va ve sl! da di?ng cac 10i?i hinh dich vl,lnhu: d!chvl,lngan hang truyen th6ng, the tin dt:mg, bao hi~m,tin dl,lngbao lanh,dich vI,!mai giai, d!ch vl,l sap nh$p, than tinh, h~ s6 pie cua t$p doan du~c danh.gia la 20, cao hdn h~ s6 pie binh quan toan nganhtai chinh My ThOhai, chu ky kinh te tac d(>ng rat nhieuden hOi?td(>ngngan hang Vi v$y, neu ngan hang co th~ lam cho cac nha dau tu thay du~c vi~c kinh doanh cua ng€mhang minh b! anh huang boi chu kinh te muc T~ cui NGAN IIhNG- s6 2NAM 2004 thap ho~c sl! anh huong la khong dang k~, thi c6 phieu cua ngan hang S13du~c cac nM dau tu mua ban vai h~ so pie cao Tuy nhien, theo kinh nghiem cua nu'ac ngoai thi kinh doanh ngan hang du~c coi la hOi?td(>ngmangtlnh chu ky Chu ky cua 10i?ihinh hOi?td(>ng gan vai chu ky kinh te vi mo va thu'angdien nhu'sau: nen kinh te rdi VaGtMi ky suy thoai, dau tien la san lu~ng ngLtngtang sau giam Khi san lu~ng giam sut thi nhan to gia toc bat dau phat huy tac dl,lng lam cho dau tu giam cang mi?nh,tUdo tong cau giam sut va Ii?mphat trang nen kinh te bat dau giam Vao thai di~m nay, nguy cd Ii?mphat da giam xuong, Ngan hang Trung udng bat dau cat giam lai suat nham ml,lc tieu phl,lC hoi Ii?inen kinh te, nhu'v$y, gia cua tin dl,!ng"s13 giam di Khi nen kinh te bat dau buac VaG thai ky tang truong, cac nganh kinh te soi d(>ng tro Ii?i,tin hi~u dau tien la nhu cau dau tu tang, sl! tac d(>ngcua so nh€ln chi tieu lam cho san IU9ng du'9Cphl,lchoi va tang len, tong cau tang tang theo, ty I~ Ii?mphat nen kinh te tang len, cung vai qua trinh la lai suat th! tru'angcOng tang theo Vai ml,lc dich kiem che Ii?m phat muc d(>thich h9P va tranh tinh tri?ng"qua nong" cua nen kinh te, Ngan hang Trung u'dngs13 co th~ quyet dinh tang lai sual Tat nhien, lai suat thay doi qua cac giai dOi?ncua chu ky kinh te s13trl!c tiep anh huong den I~i nhu$n cua cac ngan hang Chinh vi the, cac ngan hang thuang co gang giam cang nhieu cang tot sl! anh huong cua chu ky kinh te trang kinh doanh cua minh Giai phap quan trQng cho van de la giamty trQngthu nh$ptUdich vl,lngan hangtruyen thong, nghiala thu nh$ptU lai suat, va tang ty trQng thu nh$p tU vi~c cung ltng cac dich vI,!phi tin dl,lng khac lien quan den giay to co gia, dich vl,lmua ban, sap nh$p cong ty, cac nghi~pvl,lquan Iy qui, Theo kinh nghi~m,cac NHTM cung ltng cho khach hangday du va dong b(>cac 10i?ihinh dich vI,!trong hOi?td(>ngcua minh, thuang co h~ so pie cao hdn so vai cac ngan hang chuyen man hoa h~p cac hOi?td(>ngkinh doanh bao lanh dai hi?nbi anh huong n~ng hdn boi chu ky kinh te ThOba, ty I~ I~inhu$ntren gia tr! tu ban tl! co binh quan hay ty suat doanh I~i cua ngan hang la m(>t nh€lnto rat quan trQnganh huong den h~ so pie Cac ngan hang co chi tieu ty suat doanh I~i 6n dinh muc tren 15%1nam thuang du~c cac nha dau tu danh gia cao Vi dl,l h~ s6 pie cua Citigroup du~c danh gia la 20 ty suat doanh 19icua T$p doan la 23%, h~ s6 cua Bank of America chi du~c danh gia la 14 vi ty suat doanh I~i cua no chi muc 15% Song song vai qua trinh da nang hoa cac NHTM, can dien qua trinh ngu~c Ii?i.M(>tso NHTM co xu huang rut lui khoi nhCtnglinh Vl!c hOi?td(>ngma hQco it kinh nghi~m, hay noi cach khac la d6 khong phai la the mi?nh cua hQ, va t$p trung vao nhCtnglinh Vl!c kinh doanh ma hQ la ngan hang dltng dau hay co truyen thong Dieu la can thiet vi cac nha dau tu S13 tra gia cao cho co phieu cua nhCtngngan hang kinh doanhtrang cac linh Vl!c ma hQ cam thay yen tam rang it co cac ngan hang khac co th~ ci?nh tranh du~c vai' ngan hang ma hQs13 tro cac co dong Tren day la m(>tso kinh nghi~m da dU9Cduc ket trang thl!Ctien hOi?t d(>ng ngan hang nuac ngoai Chung toi cno rang vi~c nghiencUu nhCtngkinh nghi~m cho tUdng lai gan doi vai cac NHTM cua nu'ac nha ve nhCtnggiai philp tang nang II!Ctai chinh va suc hap dan truac mat cua cac nha dau tu la dieu can lam tU bay gia, d~ qua trinh h(>inh$p cua chung ta co th~ dien suon se (1) B60 Dau 10/11/2003, tv s6 135, (2) BaDmiu ILl~6133, 5/11/2003 71 ... ngan hang De thl,J'Chi$n dieu nay, vi$c nghien cU'u kinh nghi$m cua the gioi vi$c tang gia tri c6 phieu va tang kha nang thu hut dau tLttrong nen kinh 18th! trLtdng, d th! trLtdng van phat trien... 20, cao hdn h~ s6 pie binh quan toan nganhtai chinh My ThOhai, chu ky kinh te tac d(>ng rat nhieuden hOi?td(>ngngan hang Vi v$y, neu ngan hang co th~ lam cho cac nha dau tu thay du~c vi~c kinh. .. boi chu kinh te muc T~ cui NGAN IIhNG- s6 2NAM 2004 thap ho~c sl! anh huong la khong dang k~, thi c6 phieu cua ngan hang S13du~c cac nM dau tu mua ban vai h~ so pie cao Tuy nhien, theo kinh nghiem