Phan ttch he so Gini theo nguon thu nhqp d Viet Norn giai doqn 2002 - 2012 TRAN QUANG TUYEN S d i vie't nghien cihi mdi quan he giiia cdc ngudn thu nhap va bdt binh ddng thu nhap d Viet Nam thdi gian ti£ 2002-2012. Vdi bo dU lieu khao sdt mitc sdng ho gia dinh cdc nam 2006-2012, s^ dung phUcfng phdp phdn tach he so'Gini ve bdt binh ddng thu nhap vd di/a vdo Mt qud nghien citu thUc nghiem, bdi viet diXa bdng chiing thitc nghiem mdi ve dong gop va tdc dong cua cdc ngudn thu nhap tdi bdt binh ddng cdc ndm gan ddy, dong thdi di xuat mot sdgdi y chinh sdch giup ndng cao mi2c sdng ngiidi dan khong Idm. gia tdng ddng ke tinh trang bdt binh ddng ve phdn phdi thu nhdp Viet Nam. 1. Gicfi t h i § u Bang chUng thiic te' eho tha'y viec t h a m gia vao cac boat ddng phi ndng nghiep, bao gdm viec lam cdng an lUdng va tU lam, cd tac dpng tdi giam ddi ngheo va n a n g cao cha't lupng cudc sdng eho rapt bd p h a n Idn cae hd gia dinh Viet Nam (Ngan h a n g The gidi-WB, 2012). Ty le vide lam phi ndng nghiep d ndng thdn da t a n g tii 20% n a m 2001 len tdi 40% vao n a m 2011 va khoang 37% tdng so' hd d ndng thdn cd ngudn thu nhdp chinh tU hoat dpng phi ndng nghiep (Tong cue Thdng ke-GSO, 2011a). Bang chUng tU nghien cUu k i n h te' lUdng cua Van de Walle va C r a t t y (2004) eho tha'y k h a nang rdi vao t i n h t r a n g ddi ngheo eao hdn nhieu vdi cac hd khdng t h a m gia vao boat ddng phi ndng nghiep tU lam. Ben canh do, P h a m va cpng sii (2010) Ude t i n h rflng, tinh t r u n g binh va giU nguyen cac n h a n to' khac khdng doi, mdt hd gia dinh ehuyen tU mdt ddn vi san xua't t h u a n ndng sang mdt ddn vi s a n xud't t h u a n phi ndng se gia t a n g t h e m mUe chi tieu binh q u a n t r e n dau ngUdi, va ket qua cd xu hUdng tdng deu theo thdi gian. Tuy nhien, da dang hda t h u n h a p theo cac ngudn phi ndng nghiep cd tac ddng tich cUe tdi giam ngheo va cai t h i e n t h u n h a p cho hd gia dinh, qua t r i n h lai 14 l a m eho gia t a n g b a t b i n h dang t h u nhSp. S\t dung cae bd dii lieu tii h a i cudc dieu tra mUc sd'ng hd gia dinh Viet N a m (VHLSS) cac n a m 1993 va 1998 va phUdng phap p h a n tach h e so' Gini ba't dinh dang theo ngudn t h u n h a p , Gallup (2002) chi rang, t h u n h a p tU viec l a m edng a n lUdng ddng gdp vao h e sd' Gini ve t h u n h a p vdi mUc tUdng dUdng so vdi cac ngudn t h u nhap phi ndng nghiep khac (chu ye'u la t h u nhap tii doanh nghiep hd gia dinh va cae khoan thu n h a p t u tien giii ve eua ngUdi t h a n va ngoai nUdc). Ben canh do, nghien ciiu chi r a r a n g , t h u n h a p tU ndng nghiep la ngudn nha't lam giam ba't binh dang t h u n h a p . S\i dung bd dii lieu tU cudc dieu t r a mUc sd'ng bp gia dinh Viet Nam nSm 2002 va 2004 vdi phUdng p h a p nghien cdu gid'ng vdi Gallup (2002), Cam va Akita (2008) cung t h u dUdc mot sd' ke't qua nhil t r e n . Nghien cUu ciia h a i tac gia cho thay t h u n h a p ndng nghiep l a m giam tinh t r a n g ba't binh dang, t r o n g k h i dd t h u nhfip t u boat ddng phi ndng nghiep tU lam v& ngudn t h u n h a p khac ngoai lao ddng lam gia t a n g ba't binh dang. Xu hUdng tUdng tii eiing dUde p h a t hien t r o n g nghien ciiu cua Ngan h a n g T h e gidi q u a viec sii d u n g bp dii Trfin Quang Tuye^n, TS., Tnrcmg dai hoc Kinh t^, Dai hpc Qudc gia Ha Nfli. Ptian tich he sd Gini heu VHLSS eac nam 2004 va 2010 (WB, 2012). Hdn niia, nghien ciiu ciia Ngan h a n g The gidi (2012) p h a t hi$n r a n g t h u n h a p tir hoat dpng ndng nghi$p ed vai trd q u a n trpng nha't t r o n g viec giam thieu chenh lech t h u n h a p nhUng vai trd da giam d^n tii n a m 2004 tdi n a m 2010. Viec tdng q u a n t a i lidu ndi t r e n cho tha'y hien cdn thieu cac nghidn ciiu cung ca'p bang chUng vi ba't binh d i n g ngudn t h u n h a p cac n a m g^n day d Viet Nam. Cu the, vdi d e lieu s i n cd, chung ta ed t h e t i n h toan ba't binh dang theo ngudn t h u n h a p cae n a m 2006, 2008 va 2012. Hdn nUa, hien chUa cd cdng t r i n h nao nghien ciiu ba't binh dang theo nguon t h u n h a p d Vidt Nam mdt each lien tuc mdt khoang thdi gian dai hdn de lam rd dupc xu hudng ddng gdp va xu hudng tac ddng ciia cae ngudn t h u n h a p khac n h a u tdi ba't binh ddng t h a p ky qua. Day chinh la ly de tac gia thiic hidn nghien ciiu nay. Bai vie't sii dung phUdng ph^p p h a n tach hd sd' Gini theo nguon t h u n h a p (Gini decomposition by income source) vdi bd dU lieu khao sat mUc scTng hd gia dinh Viet Nam cae nam 2006, 2008, 2010 va 2012. Ben canh dd, tac gia Cling sii dung cac phat hien nghien eUu trUdc de xem xdt tac ddng eiia tUng ngudn t h u n h a p tdi bat binh dang mdt t h a p ky qua d Viet Nam. Do vay, edng t r i n h nghien ed nhflng ddng gdp mdi ve mat khoa hoc nhU sau: thU nhd't, nghien eflu cung ca'p cac bang chUng thiie nghiem mdi ve mdi quan he gifla ngudn t h u n h a p va ba't binh dang thu n h a p d Viet Nam thdi gian gan day; thU hai, thdng qua viec nghien eflu ba't binh dang theo ngudn thu n h a p vdng 10 nam qua, bai viet chi xu hudng ddng gdp cung n h u xu hudng tac ddng ciia eac ngudn thu n b ^ p khac n h a u tdi ba't binh dang d Viet Nam t h a p ky qua. Cac phat hien nghien eflu nky se gdp ph^n nang cao sU hieu bid't ve ba't binh dang t h u n h a p . cd tac di^ng hflu ich cho boat ddng p h a n tich chfnh sach kinh te, thie't ke cac chUdng NghiincOuKinht6s6435- Tn6ng8/2014 t r i n h giam ngheo va binh dang xa hdi d Viet Nam. 2. P h i f d n g p h a p n g h i e n ciiu 2.1. Nguon da lieu Nghien cUu sii dung dfl lieu tfl khao sat mUe sd'ng hd dinh d Viet Nam (Tdng cue Thd'ng ke thiie hien) cac n a m 2006, 2008, 2010 va 2012. Trong nghien cUu nay, t h u n h a p binh quan hd gia dinh va cac ngudn t h u n h a p dupc t i n h toan tU mau khao sat hd gia dinh dai dien cho 64 tinh, t h a n h eua ea nUdc. Day ciing la ngudn dfl lieu tin cay dUdc Chinh phu Viet Nam va nhieu td chUe qud'c td' sii dung dd t i n h toan cac chi so' ciing n h u phuc vu muc tieu nghien eflu, hoach dinh, b a n b a n h eac ehinh sach va thie't ke'cae ehUdng trinh giam ngheo. 2.2. Phuang phdp phdn tich dU lieu Bat binh dang thu n h a p cd the dUdc ludng theo nhieu phUdng phap khac n h a u (Babatunde, 2008). Trong eac phUdng phap dd, he so' Gini dUdc sii dung phd bie'n nha't de ludng bat binh dang phan phdi thu nhap, tieu dung va cac ehi sd' phuc Idi khac (Ldpez-Feldman, 2006), Bai vie't ap dung each tiep can nghien cUu ciiaVan Den Berg va Kumbi (2006) de phan tich md'i quan he giUa ngudn thu nhap va ba't binh dang, vdi viec sii dung phUdng phap p h a n tach he sd' Gini theo ngudn thu nhap (Lerman va Yitzhaki, 1985; Shorrocks, 1982). Lerman va Yitzhaki (1985) da phat trien ket qua nghien cUu cua Shorrocks (1982) va chi r a n g be sd' Gini cua bat binh dang t h u n h a p (G) ed the dUde bieu thi nhu sau: ^ = 2fe=i-5^ G^. fi^ Qj Trong dd S^ la ty le eua nguon t h u n h a p k tdng t h u n h a p , G^ la he sd' Gini eua p h a n phdi t h u n h a p tfl ngudn t h u n h a p k, va i?;i la md'i q u a n he giUa t h u n h a p tfl ngudn k va phan phdi cua tdng thu n h a p ( R . = C; -r! ; 0,164 0,163 0,217 0,225 ^ 0,211 0,202 0,219 0,214 ",",'"'/. 2010 2012 NguSn: Tinh toSn cua tac gia c^c nam 2006-2012 va tmh toan cua Cam va Akita (2008) cac nam 2002-2004. BANG 2: P h a n t a c h h e so' G i n i ve b a t b i n h d a n g t h e o n g u d n t h u n h a p tii 2002-2012 Ngu6n thu nh$p Ndng nghiep/n^m 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 Phi ndng nghiep tu Ikn/nSm 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 Afc/i«n aiu Kinh Ifsias- nOng SOOit Ty le t^ng thu nhap S, Gini 0, Tuong quan vdi phan ph6'i cda tong thu nh$p R^ Dong gop vao tong bat binh dang IV. He so tap trung tuomg dtfig. 0,214 0,219 0,267 0,262 0,270 0,300 0,72 0,72 0,67 0,64 0,61 0,58 0,31 0,32 0,36 0,29 0,27 0,27 0,120 0,116 0,146 0,120 0,120 0,110 0,600 0,530 0,540 0,460 0,400 0,400 0,202 0,211 0,205 0,208 0,210 0,220 0,85 0,85 0,85 0,83 0,83 0,83 0,62 0,64 0,67 0,65 0,65 0,66 0,262 0,266 0,266 0,280 0,280 0,310 1,300 1,260 1,300 1,320 1,330 1,390 17 Phan tich h$ s(eini Nguon thu nhap Thu nhap tu lam cOng (tien cfing) /nam 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 Cac ngu6n khac/nam 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 T6ng/nam 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 Gmi Tuong quan vdi phan phoi ciia tong thu nhap R^ Dong gop vao tdng bat binh ding W, He so tap trung tuong doig, 0,420 0.407 0,311 0,305 0,280 0,300 0,65 0,68 0,72 0,71 0,72 0,73 0,66 0,69 0,64 0,61 0,59 0,61 0,443 0,436 0,327 0,320 0,290 0,340 1,054 1,071 1,050 1,060 1,040 1,113 0,164 0,163 0,217 0,225 0,240 0,180 0,76 0,79 0,77 0,75 0,76 0,79 0,57 0,62 0,68 0,67 0,72 0,65 0,175 0,182 0,261 0,280 0,320 0,240 1,072 1,127 1,210 1,230 1,350 1,300 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 0,407 0,433 0,437 0407 0,410 0,390 Tj te tong thu nhap St 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 Ngudn: Ti'nh toan cua tac gia cac nam 2006-2012 ditatheo da lieu tCr VHLSS 2006-2012. Ti'nh toan cSc nSm 2002 vi 2004 tii Cam va Akita (2008). Tinh toin dua trgn miic thu nhap binh quan/ngir6i/nam. Hinh cho tha'y he sd Gini thu n h a p la 0,407 vao nam 2012, tha'p hdn so miic 0,433 nam 2010 va miie 0,437 n a m 2008. Dieu dd eho tha'y miie dp ba't binh dang p h a n phd'i thu nhap eua eac hd gia dinh Viet Nam da giam nhe thdi ky tii nam 2008 tdi nay. Kd't qua tUdng tii ciing dUde p h a n a n h phan phd'i ve chi tieu he so' Gini chi tieu giam tii 0,393 nam 2010 xud'ng cdn 0,356 vao nam 2012 (GSO, 2013b). Ve phan phoi eiia tiing ngudn thu nhap, hinh eho tha'y gia tri cua he sd Gini theo tiing ngudn thu nhap Idn hdn kha nhieu so vdi gia tri he so' Gini cua tdng thu nhap. Dieu bat ngudn tii thiic te' la ed nhieu hd ehi tap trung vao mdt boat ddng kinh te' nha't dinh va vay hp se khdng ed hoac cd it thu nhap tii cac ngudn khac. Chinh vi vay, phan phd'i ciia tiing ngudn thu nhap se bat binh dang bdn 18 so vdi p h a n phd'i eua tdng t h u nhap. Hinh cho tha'y ngudn t h u n h a p tii ndng nghidp cang dUde p h a n phd'i ba't binh dang hdn, the hien qua vide gia t a n g gia tri cua he so' Groi til 0,58 n a m 2002 len 0,72 n a m 2012. Dieu cd the dupc ly giai da't ndng nghiep cang dUde p h a n phd'i ba't binh dang hdn (GSO, 2013b) qua t r i n h tich t u va tap trung rudng da't san xua't ndng nghie|^ thdi gian qua. Ngudn t h u n h a p tii phi nong nghiep tii lam ludn dUde p h a n phd'i it cong bang n h a t va miic dp bat binh dang gan nhil khdng thay ddi thdi ky 2OO2-2012. Tudng tii, t h u n h a p tii cac ngudn khac cung cd miic dp bat binh dang eao va hin rM khdng thay ddi ciing thdi gian tren. Sau cilng, miic dp binh dang dupc cai thifin dang ke phan phd'i t h u n h a p tit lam cdng an lUdng he sd' Gini eiia ngudn thu Nghiin ciiu Kinh tgsS435 - Thing 8/201* Phan lich he so Gini nhdp aky da giam thdi gian gin day va c6 gia tri t h a p nhat vao nam 2012. HINH 2: He s o Gini t o n g t h u n h a p v a t h e o n g u o n t h u n h a p g i a i d o a n 2002-2012 1,0 * = * = o C3 a 0,8 =«= M — M nghiSp = » j^ — Q — Phr nong nghigp •s 0,6 — * — T i e n cdng i 0,4 . —»:> 0,18 :-:-;-: :o:>^ 0,44 0,44 W?: -_-- i 0,11 2002 2004 0,28 0,28 0,12 0,12 = 2006 :;-. "0,27 0,27 0,26 :;;;;;;;; 0,15 0,12 '"""", '"/////;,0,12 2008 2010 2012 Ngudn • Tinh todn cua tic gia c5c nam 2006-2012 va tinh toan cua Cam vS Akita (2008) cac nam 2002-2004. Nghiin CAJ Kinh t^s6435 - Thing 8/2014 19 Phan tich he so Gini HINH 4: Tac d o n g c u a c a c n g u o n t h u n h a p v a o t o n g bat b i n h d a n g (Gini) giai dojin 2002-2012 - Phi ndng nghiep 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Ghi chu: gi-l: khong tac dong t6i Gmi; g^ >I: tang Gini vhgt . tach ba't binh dang theo ngudn thu nhap h Viet Nam, thu nhap hd gia dinh thUdng dUdc phan chia theo eac ngudn khac nhau, bao gdm thu nhap tfl lam cdng an lUdng, thu nhap tu viec lam. gifla ngudn thu nhap va ba't binh dang thu nhap d Viet Nam trong thdi gian gan day; thU hai, thdng qua viec nghien eflu ba't binh dang theo ngudn thu nhap trong vdng 10 nam qua,. so Gini theo nguon thu nhqp d Viet Norn giai doqn 2002 - 2012 TRAN QUANG TUYEN Sdi vie't nghien cihi mdi quan he giiia cdc ngudn thu nhap va bdt binh ddng thu nhap d Viet Nam