- Chuyên ngành: Tài Tp Hồ Chí Minh Năm 2013 Ngân hàng TĨM công ty 2.2.2 N 11 2.2.3 Mơ hình Ohlson (1980) 15 16 18 21 - MDA) 21 21 22 24 24 3.1.1 Mô 24 27 29 33 34 34 36 37 46 50 51 53 57 57 58 10 14 29 30 Correlation Matrix 38 KMO and Bartlett's Testtron 39 Total Variance Explained 40 41 41 42 ion Table- mơ hình 42 43 43 10 Model Summary- 43 11 Classification Table- hình 44 12 Variables in the Equation2 44 13 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients 44 14 Model Summary 45 15 Classification Table 45 16 Variables in the Equation 46 52 52 mơ hình - 4.517 doanh kinh doanh toán giá và Sàn giao 2013 Binary Logistic ác bi 59 60 Minh: NXB Website: http://www.gso.gov.vn/ cáo tài cơng ty Website: http:// www.hsx.vn - Trang thơng tin tài chính- - -tài tháng 2013 Website: http://cafef.vn Trang thơng tin tài chínhWebsite: http://cafef.vn Altman, Edward I., Predicting Financial Distress of Companies: Revisiting the Z-Score and ZETA® Models, 7-35 Altman, Edward., 1968 Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy Journal of finance, 589-609 Beaver, W., 1966 Financial ratios as predictors of failure Journal of Accounting Research , 71-111 Ohson J, 1980 Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy Journal of Accounting Research, pp.109-301 Polemis D, Gounopoulos D, 2012 Prediction of distress and identification of potential M&As targets in UK Managerial Finance, pp1085-1104 Wang Y, Campbell M, 2010 Financial Ratios an Predition of Bankruptcy: The Ohlson Model Applied to Chinese Publicy Traded Companies The Journal of Organizational Leadership & Business, 1-15 MaCK DDM FBT IFS SCC SD8 SHC TLC VES STL GFC THV NTB SDJ AGC BAS VKP VMG VSG VSP TLT SDS CAD ABT AAM AGM ALP CMT SFC BHS AGM LIX MCP CDC DPR STT 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 vldr/ts(R1) -0.212210474 -0.237610792 -0.665351204 0.392326044 -0.103608049 -0.333931378 0.036845633 -0.08934558 0.042682485 -0.084476199 -0.13814751 0.207059844 0.112270844 -0.264331698 -0.375861524 -0.294841641 -0.056922793 -0.158970198 -0.009924008 -0.407262237 0.085077484 -1.053689761 0.580534676 0.648493822 0.116722395 0.154615133 0.366439885 0.272430782 0.097326795 0.116722395 0.154615133 0.366439885 0.337988678 0.415595069 no/ts(R2) 0.976647983 0.623829948 0.88008277 0.30697778 0.906756419 0.805491947 0.278951669 0.540266269 0.96176808 0.904266233 0.846629271 0.784970165 0.814477434 1.13427212 0.604468172 0.973067129 0.427839488 0.940615097 0.83614095 0.941701379 0.92479317 1.536328948 0.179457381 0.12977805 0.617359126 0.382719756 0.564104417 0.30224979 0.572065938 0.617359126 0.382719756 0.564104417 0.63163629 0.202074557 lntt/ts(R3) 0.00366238 0.02448632 -0.07790023 -0.06531613 0.00293669 0.04972049 -0.25162297 -0.03356875 -0.00262032 -0.01328041 -0.09021663 0.00018683 -0.02506663 -0.36528703 -0.15612969 -0.23629891 -0.09291876 -0.07955807 -0.18292911 0.00159721 0.00316902 -0.99441836 0.22338282 0.23796276 0.09365 0.02524092 0.04300163 0.02144864 0.12484437 0.09365 0.02524092 0.04300163 0.03436386 0.35851235 lnst/ts(R4) 0.00014087 0.02448632 0.08097708 -0.0746339 0.00221376 0.04853606 -0.251623 -0.0335687 -0.003383 -0.0132916 -0.1206114 -0.0005763 -0.0250666 -0.365287 -0.1561297 -0.2362989 -0.0929188 -0.0795581 -0.1829291 0.00159721 0.00217034 -0.9944184 0.20870315 0.19394459 0.07654537 0.00992737 0.03527044 0.0215217 0.11487003 0.07654537 0.00992737 0.03527044 0.02518943 0.33042778 dt/ts(R5) nonh/tsld(R6) 0.27198 5.756145806 0.824073 1.616256681 1.301413 12.34374242 1.223318 0.426591077 1.077022 1.133102594 2.308187 1.973119223 0.456726 0.801546803 0.110446 1.623583122 0.318832 0.923406791 1.805702 1.10322671 0.586873 1.208519656 0.142456 0.597173207 0.917987 0.878035885 0.426445 1.304343824 0.137911 4.1494638 0.680412 1.697672178 1.921736 1.250116003 0.235985 4.092087422 0.220069 1.04789906 1.086581 1.792885836 1.194191 0.911496056 0.933185 3.099683623 1.386341 0.235890789 1.94141 0.143565696 2.867919 0.840583605 0.682339 0.691287429 1.156114 0.606209093 0.815044 0.517688506 2.001977 0.834304712 2.867919 0.840583605 0.682339 0.691287429 1.156114 0.606209093 0.395314 0.618642657 0.756027 0.247874719 DPM ANV DHG FMC BHS BBC DRC EVE NSC HLA 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 0.556912215 0.272430782 0.474352106 0.058843649 0.097326795 0.270211338 0.405861807 0.581996338 0.378061406 0.025275122 0.089638681 0.30224979 0.301772015 0.779254762 0.572065938 0.26951321 0.458710563 0.184712833 0.39770884 0.737204041 0.37764157 0.02144864 0.24599893 0.03670953 0.12484437 0.07037555 0.16256439 0.22493799 0.1768535 0.00615195 0.33787598 0.0215217 0.21033259 0.03647933 0.11487003 0.0589792 0.12188885 0.17755581 0.17170993 0.00119284 0.998246 0.821626 1.258113 2.465423 2.001977 1.28386 1.6692 0.940898 1.416314 1.355758 0.14309993 0.517688506 0.364947422 0.929730902 0.834304712 0.496346255 0.457496707 0.219909033 0.51161537 0.966851393 STT MÃ CK Tên công ty Lý DDM 2013 DHI 2013 FBT 2013 Tre IFS 2013 SCC 2013 SD8 2013 SHC 2013 TLC 2013 VES 2013 Mêca Vneco SGD 10 THV 2013 11 STL 2013 12 GFC 13 NTB raco 2013 2013 thác cơng trình giao thơng 584 14 SDJ 2013 15 AGC Cty CP Cà Phê An Giang 2012 CSH âm 16 BAS Cty CP Basa 2012 17 VKP 2012 18 VMG 2012 12 tháng 19 VSG Cty CP container Phía Nam 2012 20 VSP 2012 21 TLT 2012 22 CAD 2012 GET FILE='D:\2 HOC\LUAN VAN\ketqua.sav' DATASET NAME DataSet0 WINDOW=FRONT FACTOR /VARIABLES R1 R3 R2 R4 R5 R6 /MISSING LISTWISE /ANALYSIS R1 R3 R2 R4 R5 R6 /PRINT UNIVARIATE INITIAL CORRELATION KMO EXTRACTION ROTATION /PLOT EIGEN ROTATION /CRITERIA MINEIGEN(1) ITERATE(25) /EXTRACTION PC /CRITERIA ITERATE(25) /ROTATION VARIMAX /SAVE REG(ALL) /METHOD=CORRELATION FACTOR ANALYSIS Factor Analysis Notes Output Created 08-Oct-2013 08:06:56 Comments Input Data D:\2 HOC\LUAN VAN\ketqua.sav Active Dataset DataSet1 Filter Weight Split File N of Rows in Working Data File Missing Value Handling 44 Definition of Missing MISSING=EXCLUDE: User-defined missing values are treated as missing Cases Used LISTWISE: Statistics are based on cases with no missing values for any variable used Syntax FACTOR /VARIABLES R1 R3 R2 R4 R5 R6 /MISSING LISTWISE /ANALYSIS R1 R3 R2 R4 R5 R6 /PRINT UNIVARIATE INITIAL CORRELATION KMO EXTRACTION ROTATION /PLOT EIGEN ROTATION /CRITERIA MINEIGEN(1) ITERATE(25) /EXTRACTION PC /CRITERIA ITERATE(25) /ROTATION VARIMAX /SAVE REG(ALL) /METHOD=CORRELATION Resources Processor Time 00:00:00.718 Elapsed Time 00:00:00.826 Maximum Memory Required Variables Created 5928 (5.789K) bytes FAC1_2 Component score FAC2_2 Component score [DataSet1] D:\2 HOC\LUAN VAN\ketqua.sav Descriptive Statistics Mean v Std Deviation Analysis N 0713 34485 44 0043 21271 44 6179 31260 44 -.0018 20559 44 1.1160 71552 44 1.4101 2.02913 44 Correlation Matrix Doanh thu Correlation 1.000 -.813 721 148 -.638 773 1.000 -.707 991 290 -.303 -.813 -.707 1.000 -.679 -.146 420 721 991 -.679 1.000 291 -.196 148 290 -.146 291 1.000 -.141 -.638 Doanh thu tr 773 -.303 420 -.196 -.141 1.000 KMO and Bartlett's Test Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy Bartlett's Test of Sphericity Approx Chi-Square 637 323.937 df 15 Sig .000 Communalities Initial Extraction 1.000 926 1.000 914 1.000 763 1.000 892 1.000 523 1.000 659 Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis Total Variance Explained Initial Eigenvalues Component Total Extraction Sums of Squared Loadings % of Variance Cumulative % Total % of Variance Cumulative % Rotation Sums of Squared Loadings Total % of Variance Cumulative % 3.660 60.997 60.997 3.660 60.997 60.997 2.831 47.184 47.184 1.017 16.953 77.950 1.017 16.953 77.950 1.846 30.766 77.950 889 14.812 92.762 326 5.430 98.192 106 1.762 99.954 003 046 100.000 Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis Component Matrixa Component 924 928 145 892 311 327 645 -.547 a components extracted .228 -.861 Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis -.267 600 Rotated Component Matrixa Component 916 296 641 709 -.795 -.362 565 757 -.091 718 -.789 191 Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization a Rotation converged in iterations Component Transformation Matrix Component 828 560 -.560 828 Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization LOGISTIC REGRESSION VARIABLES y /METHOD=ENTER R1 R2 /CRITERIA=PIN(.05) POUT(.10) ITERATE(20) CUT(.5) Logistic Regression Notes Output Created 08-Oct-2013 08:16:16 Comments Input Data D:\2 HOC\LUAN VAN\ketqua.sav Active Dataset DataSet1 Filter Weight Split File N of Rows in Working 44 Data File Missing Value Handling Definition of Missing Syntax User-defined missing values are treated as missing LOGISTIC REGRESSION VARIABLES y /METHOD=ENTER R1 R2 /CRITERIA=PIN(.05) POUT(.10) ITERATE(20) CUT(.5) Resources Processor Time 00:00:00.016 Elapsed Time 00:00:00.016 Dependent Variable Encoding Original Value Internal Value Block 1: Method = Enter Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square Step df Sig Step 53.905 000 Block 53.905 000 Model 53.905 000 Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood 7.092a Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 706 a Estimation terminated at iteration number 11 because parameter estimates changed by less than 001 .942 Classification Tablea Predicted Observed Percentage Correct Step 21 95.5 21 95.5 Overall Percentage 95.5 a The cut value is 500 Variables in the Equation B Step 1a S.E Wald df Sig Exp(B) R1 -15.183 7.566 4.026 045 000 R2 -135.662 74.936 3.277 070 000 3.037 1.673 3.297 069 20.847 Constant a Variable(s) entered on step 1: R1, R2 ... thơng tin tài chínhWebsite: http://cafef.vn Trang thơng nghi -tài tháng 2013 n t c a T ng c c th ng kê Báo cáo k t qu rà sốt s ng doanh 35 ê thì: báo cáo Kê cho tháng doanh ý 5,4 % so doanh n 2012... 31,7% doanh gian gây lao doanh phí nhân 26.324 kinh doanh quy mơ lao cho khơng thu có có kéo theo tình doanh 36 b Nh n xét v tình hình phá s n doanh nghi p hi n m t chuyên gia tài cho bi ng doanh. .. - 4.517 doanh kinh doanh toán giá và Sàn giao 2013 Binary Logistic ác bi B - gián -393 Ngoài ra, ch - 7 - nghi n t c a T ng c c th ng kê Báo cáo k t qu rà soát s ng doanh - - doan chính, cơng