Đánh giá tác động của biến đổi khí hậu đến ngập lụt lưu vực sông nhật lệ, tỉnh quảng bình

, G BÌNH – 2015 , G BÌNH Chuyên : - 2015 Xin chân PGS TS Tomohiko "Innovative Application of ICTs in Addressing Water-related Impacts of Climate Change mô -P04-VIE “Climate Change- Induced Water Disaster and Participatory Information System for Vulnerability Reduction in North Central Vietnam” tr ! 12/2014 Trang iii vi vii 1.1 .5 1.2 .7 1.3 13 1.4 14 1.5 Tình hình l l t h th ng sông Nh t 16 .20 2.1 20 2.2 23 2.2.1 23 2.2.2 25 2.3 .27 2.3.1 27 2.3.2 28 2.4 .29 2.4.1 29 2.4.2 32 2.4.3 .33 2.4.4 36 2.4.5 .38 2.4.6 .41 2.4.7 43 2.4.8 46 -i- 2.4.9 51 2.4.10 55 57 3.1 57 3.1.1 .58 3.1.2 59 3.2 62 3.3 .65 3.4 68 3.5 .74 76 78 83 -ii- Hình 1.1 -2010 .5 Hình 1.2 Hình 1.3 Bi i t n su t toàn c u Hình 1.4 14 Hình 2.1 c sơng Nh t L 26 Hình 2.2 28 Hình 2.3 29 Hình 2.4 31 Hình 2.5 33 Hình 2.6 37 Hình 2.7 -HMS .38 Hình 2.8 .40 Hình 2.9 42 Hình 2.10 44 Hình 2.11 - 45 Hình 2.12 .52 Hình 2.13 .54 Hình 2.14 HEC-RAS 55 Hình 3.1 1976 58 -iii- Hình 3.2 NSE 0.77) .58 Hình 3.3 59 Hình 3.4 NSE 0.83) 59 Hình 3.5 60 Hình 3.6 61 Hình 3.7 61 Hình 3.8 62 Hình 3.9 63 Hình 3.10 64 Hình 3.11 .65 Hình 3.12 66 Hình 3.13 .67 Hình 3.14 .68 Hình 3.15 70 Hình 3.16 RCP8.5 71 -iv- Hình 3.17 RCP8.5 72 RCP8.5 73 Hình 3.18 Hình - 83 Hình -4.474 84 Hình .85 Hình .85 Hình 86 Hình 86 Hình 87 Hình .87 Hình 21) 88 Hình 10 21) 88 -v- .16 25 32 .47 - 51 69 69 .83 -vi- 3.5 Th o lu n (hay phút) Tuy nhiên, -HEC- ngày Ngoài ra, hêm có khác D lai gia , lên Tuy nhiên, i có nghiên lịng sơng M Thanh Xuân cs [22] -74- , n - h Các [27, 31, 40] trên, cá cịn q trình -75- tốn - nhân v KNK RCP4.5 RCP8.5, s d ng mơ hình th h p v i -HMS mơ hình th y l c HEC-RAS k t GIS, lu n ng p l c hi ng c a c sông, l y ví d sơng Nh t L nghiên : 1) HEC-HMS, GeoRAS HEC-RAS HEC- tính tốn m 0.83 2) 3) ngày gia , -76- m t ràng, trung bình ng trung bình 49.2%, 63.1%, và nh tích Tính trung bình : gia Các Các k kéo gia T t t , hay -77- toàn liên ngành mơ hình hóa cho khơng trá Hồng Thái Bình (2009), -Tám Lu- , , NXB Tài nguyên Bình) , cs (2007), Trung, cs 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Duy Ninh 795 745 Gia Ninh 1,100 747 10 151 93 11 39 64 1,034 942 13 979 648 14 1,281 1,585 15 1,599 1,188 16 700 238 12 Hàm Ninh -83- 17 787 694 18 783 440 19 480 681 20 1,212 388 21 914 337 22 968 932 23 310 231 24 730 924 25 596 921 26 Tân Ninh 1,092 1,191 27 1,196 833 28 762 620 29 TT 437 413 30 1,098 1,307 31 1,107 1,104 32 Võ Ninh 867 1,251 33 469 444 Hình t PRCPTOT, ( ) a=-4.474 [10] -84- Hình R1day Hình a=3.115 [10] -85- góc a=0.672 [10] Hình -86- 2011 2009 2007 2005 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 1971 1969 1967 1965 1963 1961 1600 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 1971 1969 1967 1965 1961-2012 2000 1800 - 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 Hình 450 1965-2012 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Hình Hình L tr -872011 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 1971 1969 1967 1965 250 -2012 200 150 100 50 Hình L ( ) Hình 10 L -88- 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Q0 (i) Qs (i) giá tr quan tr c tính tốn dịng ch y t ( ) giá tr trung bình c a dòng ch y quan tr h s R2 c th i gian i a NSE gi c s d ng h i quy n tính NSE có giá tr kho ng t - i Giá tr NSE = th