- - P K 34 MSSV: 108202120 2012*** SVTH: NHÂM MANH LINH PT00_K34 Page - - T ty g SVTH: NHÂM MANH LINH PT00_K34 Page - - ên sinh viên Ngày sinh : 28/02/1990 c Khoa Minh : : 60 y - : sách SVTH: NHÂM MANH LINH PT00_K34 Page - - SVTH: NHÂM MANH LINH PT00_K34 Page - - công công công cơng u có liên quan 1.5 t Nam -2011 t Nam c c t Nam t Nam c i t Nam a sách tài khóa n n khác t Nam sách SVTH: NHÂM MANH LINH PT00_K34 3 12 13 16 16 17 20 21 23 23 29 30 31 33 34 35 37 37 41 44 52 Page - - 13 16 18 18 2010 2011 2010 19 22 24 24 25 27 n vãng lai 32 34 g 7.1 : -2011 -2012f DANH M 17 n i 31/12/2010 n t Nam (2005-2011) -2011 SVTH: NHÂM MANH LINH PT00_K34 20 20 24 26 36 Page - - , C tính tố , khơng c ngân sách nhà , theo ,n sách C : - 2011 , IMF r , , n , h sách tài - SVTH: NHÂM MANH LINH ? PT00_K34 Page - - - sau: ngân sách nhà - SVTH: NHÂM MANH LINH ng PT00_K34 Page - - 2, nêu t K 1 , , , (1) , , (3) , , ho , n hàng trung , theo , (3) K , N T ,c SVTH: NHÂM MANH LINH PT00_K34 Page - - T tài có V T , tài khóa, sau: B ng : Thâm h t ngân sách 2008-2013 (tính theo ph ( giá tr 2008 -2,0 Th gi i phát tri n n c ch m phát tri n Ngu n :IMF Sai khác so v i trình giám sát tài khóa t i tháng 09/2011 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 6,7 -5,5 -4,5 -4, -3,4 0,0 -0,4 -0,5 -3,8 -0,4 -1,3 9,0 -4,8 -4,0 -7,6 -3,6 -3,1 c tính ) -6,6 -2,6 -2,8 -5,7 -2,7 -2,8 -4,6 -2,5 -2,3 0,0 0,1 0,3 -0,2 -0,4 0,1 -0,5 -0,5 0,2 , hay không? 2.3 : SVTH: NHÂM MANH LINH public debt domestic) PT00_K34 Page 10 - - , trun - - , xem xét lai vào o Theo tiêu SVTH: NHÂM MANH LINH PT00_K34 Page 45 - - , 10 SVTH: NHÂM MANH LINH PT00_K34 Page 46 - - chi phí tài , - c , V av nh T Có q trì , cơng h khách có u the SVTH: NHÂM MANH LINH PT00_K34 Page 47 - - q trình phân tích ,n -2011 m không - 1980,m - Sau 1995, bè phân tích , qua , SVTH: NHÂM MANH LINH - - PT00_K34 Page 48 - SVTH: NHÂM MANH LINH PT00_K34 - Page 49 - - 2011 Years 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Current Account Balance ( 0.565 ) ( 0.739 ) ( 0.616 ) ( 0.685 ) ( 0.980 ) ( 0.943 ) ( 1.480 ) ( 1.388 ) ( 0.769 ) ( 0.584 ) ( 0.259 ) ( 0.133 ) ( 0.008 ) ( 1.395 ) ( 1.872 ) ( 0.254 ) Years 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Current Account Balance ( 2.020 ) ( 1.528 ) ( 1.074 ) 1.177 1.106 0.920 ( 0.627 ) ( 1.931 ) ( 1.591 ) ( 0.560 ) ( 0.164 ) ( 6.992 ) ( 10.787 ) ( 6.116 ) ( 3.928 ) ( 5.740 ) Source : World Economic Outlook Database, September 2011 SVTH: NHÂM MANH LINH PT00_K34 Page 50 - - B : CURRENT ACCOUNT Null Hypothesis: CURRENT_ACCOUNT_BALANCE has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=7) t-Statistic S Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic Test critical values: SVTH: NHÂM MANH LINH PT00_K34 1% level Prob.* -0.598242 -3.679322 0.8562 Page 51 - - 5% level 10% level -2.967767 -2.622989 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(CURRENT_ACCOUNT_BALANCE) Method: Least Squares Date: 02/25/12 Time: 15:57 Sample (adjusted): 1983 2011 Included observations: 29 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob CURRENT_ACCOUNT_BALANCE(-1) D(CURRENT_ACCOUNT_BALANCE(-1)) D(CURRENT_ACCOUNT_BALANCE(-2)) C -0.098958 0.233219 -0.554564 -0.412392 0.165415 0.176990 0.202151 0.386222 -0.598242 1.317698 -2.743319 -1.067759 0.5551 0.1996 0.0111 0.2958 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.371373 0.295938 1.661782 69.03796 -53.72595 4.923079 0.008008 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat -0.176690 1.980471 3.981100 4.169692 4.040165 2.056035 Null Hypothesis: CURRENT_ACCOUNT_BALANCE has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=7) t-Statistic Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic Test critical values: -1.347022 -4.309824 -3.574244 -3.221728 1% level 5% level 10% level Prob.* 0.8551 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(CURRENT_ACCOUNT_BALANCE) Method: Least Squares Date: 02/25/12 Time: 15:58 Sample (adjusted): 1983 2011 Included observations: 29 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob CURRENT_ACCOUNT_BALANCE(-1) D(CURRENT_ACCOUNT_BALANCE(-1)) D(CURRENT_ACCOUNT_BALANCE(-2)) C @TREND(1980) -0.252362 0.289007 -0.484684 0.505185 -0.066979 0.187348 0.175367 0.201109 0.688297 0.042134 -1.347022 1.648011 -2.410056 0.733963 -1.589675 0.1906 0.1124 0.0240 0.4701 0.1250 SVTH: NHÂM MANH LINH PT00_K34 Page 52 - - R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.431259 0.336468 1.613241 62.46115 -52.27433 4.549612 0.007073 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat -0.176690 1.980471 3.949954 4.185694 4.023785 2.061341 Null Hypothesis: CURRENT_ACCOUNT_BALANCE has a unit root Exogenous: None Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=7) t-Statistic Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic Test critical values: 0.045715 -2.647120 -1.952910 -1.610011 1% level 5% level 10% level Prob.* 0.6894 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(CURRENT_ACCOUNT_BALANCE) Method: Least Squares Date: 02/25/12 Time: 16:00 Sample (adjusted): 1983 2011 Included observations: 29 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob CURRENT_ACCOUNT_BALANCE(-1) D(CURRENT_ACCOUNT_BALANCE(-1)) D(CURRENT_ACCOUNT_BALANCE(-2)) 0.006095 0.194262 -0.613815 0.133332 0.173655 0.194908 0.045715 1.118672 -3.149250 0.9639 0.2735 0.0041 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat 0.342705 0.292144 1.666253 72.18639 -54.37258 2.102309 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter 0.176690 1.980471 3.956729 4.098174 4.001028 Null Hypothesis: D(CURRENT_ACCOUNT_BALANCE) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=7) t-Statistic Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic Test critical values: SVTH: NHÂM MANH LINH PT00_K34 1% level 5% level Prob.* -6.739713 -3.679322 -2.967767 0.0000 Page 53 - - 10% level -2.622989 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(CURRENT_ACCOUNT_BALANCE,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 02/25/12 Time: 16:06 Sample (adjusted): 1983 2011 Included observations: 29 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob D(CURRENT_ACCOUNT_BALANCE(-1)) D(CURRENT_ACCOUNT_BALANCE(-1),2) C -1.432174 0.623094 -0.274964 0.212498 0.164492 0.306619 -6.739713 3.787996 -0.896759 0.0000 0.0008 0.3781 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.640387 0.612725 1.641133 70.02629 -53.93205 23.14998 0.000002 0.066724 2.637144 3.926349 4.067793 3.970647 2.148957 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat Null Hypothesis: D(CURRENT_ACCOUNT_BALANCE) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=7) t-Statistic Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic Test critical values: -6.821498 -4.309824 -3.574244 -3.221728 1% level 5% level 10% level Prob.* 0.0000 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(CURRENT_ACCOUNT_BALANCE,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 02/25/12 Time: 16:09 Sample (adjusted): 1983 2011 Included observations: 29 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob D(CURRENT_ACCOUNT_BALANCE(-1)) D(CURRENT_ACCOUNT_BALANCE(-1),2) C @TREND(1980) -1.458174 0.643581 0.362184 -0.037746 0.213761 0.165512 0.691050 0.036698 -6.821498 3.888428 0.524107 -1.028537 0.0000 0.0007 0.6048 0.3135 R-squared Adjusted R-squared SVTH: NHÂM MANH LINH PT00_K34 0.654986 0.613585 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var 0.066724 2.637144 Page 54 - - S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 1.639309 67.18339 -53.33111 15.82031 0.000006 Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 3.953869 4.142462 4.012934 2.234618 Null Hypothesis: D(CURRENT_ACCOUNT_BALANCE) has a unit root Exogenous: None Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=7) t-Statistic Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic Test critical values: -6.706801 -2.647120 -1.952910 -1.610011 1% level 5% level 10% level Prob.* 0.0000 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(CURRENT_ACCOUNT_BALANCE,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 02/25/12 Time: 16:09 Sample (adjusted): 1983 2011 Included observations: 29 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob D(CURRENT_ACCOUNT_BALANCE(-1)) D(CURRENT_ACCOUNT_BALANCE(-1),2) -1.412108 0.609165 0.210549 0.163162 -6.706801 3.733503 0.0000 0.0009 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat SVTH: NHÂM MANH LINH PT00_K34 0.629264 0.615533 1.635171 72.19220 -54.37374 2.094943 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter 0.066724 2.637144 3.887844 3.982140 3.917377 Page 55 - SVTH: NHÂM MANH LINH PT00_K34 - Page 56 - - CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE SVTH: NHÂM MANH LINH PT00_K34 Page 57 - - Andrea F Presbiter and growth in developing countries Working Paper, Department of Economics Politecnica delle Marche ( Italy ) : Available via the internet on website http://www.investorplace.com/investorpolitics/3-lessons-you-must-learnfrom-the-europe-mess/ Emanuele Baldacci and Manmohan S Kumar ( 2010 ) : Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yeilds , IMF working paper WP/10/184, International Monetary Fund Goohoon Kwon , Lavern McFarlance , and Wayne Ro Public debt, money supply, and inflation : A cross country study and its P/06/121, Internatonal Monetary Fund Rising debt of the Developed World and On Trade and Development (UNCTAD) working paper, Available via www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41167.pdf Song Hongbing ( isis : Origins a the internet on website : , China CITIC Press The World Bank(2011 socialist , Report No.65200-VN Udaibir S Das , Michael Papapioannou , Guilherme Pedras , Faisal Ahmed , and Jay Surti ancial stability , IMF working paper WP/10/280, International Monetary Fund SVTH: NHÂM MANH LINH PT00_K34 Page 58 - - , Phùng Thanh Bình SVTH: NHÂM MANH LINH PT00_K34 Page 59 ... 2012 2013 6,7 -5 ,5 -4 ,5 -4 , -3 ,4 0,0 -0 ,4 -0 ,5 -3 ,8 -0 ,4 -1 ,3 9,0 -4 ,8 -4 ,0 -7 ,6 -3 ,6 -3 ,1 c tính ) -6 ,6 -2 ,6 -2 ,8 -5 ,7 -2 ,7 -2 ,8 -4 ,6 -2 ,5 -2 ,3 0,0 0,1 0,3 -0 ,2 -0 ,4 0,1 -0 ,5 -0 ,5 0,2 , hay... tài khóa Vietnam , the International Standards of Supreme Audit debt indicators - ISSAI 5411 I - - q trình phân tích nhóm c SVTH: NHÂM MANH LINH PT00_K34 Page 12 - - - c - - - - 1.2.C , nghiên... PT00_K34 Page 47 - - trình phân tích ,n -2 011 m khơng - 1980,m - Sau 1995, bè phân tích , qua , SVTH: NHÂM MANH LINH - - PT00_K34 Page 48 - SVTH: NHÂM MANH LINH PT00_K34 - Page 49 - - 2011 Years