KINH TẾ VĨ MÔ_CHƯƠNG 4: TIỀN TỆ VÀ LẠM PHÁT pdf

1 kinh t v mô bn th nm N. Gregory Mankiw Bài ging ca Phm Th Anh pham.theanh@yahoo.com (dch và sa theo bài ging ca Ron Cronovich) macro © 2002 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved CHNG 4 Tin t và Lm phát CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 1 Trong chng này bn s hc Trong chng này bn s hc           !"# $$ %&'( %)*+,-.  /01)'0&. CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 2 Lm phát  M & xu hng ca nó, Lm phát  M & xu hng ca nó, 1960 1960 - - 2001 2001 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 % nm inflation rate CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 3 Lm phát  M & xu hng ca nó, 1960 Lm phát  M & xu hng ca nó, 1960 - - 2001 2001 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 % nm inflation rate inflation rate trend CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 4 Mi liên h gia tin và giá c Mi liên h gia tin và giá c  23456)787 98:),;.   5*<68  &'.  ='*<%>'? @86>A,B98 ? ?&4CD'E. CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 5 Tin: Tin: nh ngha nh ngha   &*<&D &*<&D EDFD&DG EDFD&DG 01H4 01H4 8'0%. 8'0%. 2 CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 6 Tin: Tin: các chc nng các chc nng   @8DG01E8B   D:8I4D8*J 8   J%K*+'*+ &)% CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 7 Money: types Money: types   L CME)%  L 01NB@88DG01   L E)%  L 01NO&? P)')Q )8 CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 8 Câu hi Tho lun Câu hi Tho lun RS&'D8&T 8. 2U ,. VA . 2G)'&C'EDA W*<K& GE)@>'6X 0. "Y01 >. ":G W*<K& GECZX CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 9 Cung tin & chính sách tin t Cung tin & chính sách tin t  &*<DFE )'C.   ! &4C D'. CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 10 Ngân hàng trung ng Ngân hàng trung ng  "D4*<H4,[" # *\.  ]^_? & )*J *<K& $% &'( W!>)*#X. Toà nhà Cc D tr Liên bang Washington, DC CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 11 Các thc o cung tin, Các thc o cung tin, tháng T tháng T 2002 2002 `a4 "&D,8'O aP*<W3X` " 2U bcde.f ^g "hG)@>'6? ggfi.j DA0%?C'G EDAC ^k ^ghC'GE ciej.g CZl?GC4? m%)*+4? &C'G%)*+4 ^n ^khC'GE ejci.i CZ\?<O8? DP0*98m%)*+4 3 CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 12 Lý thuyt S lng Tin t Lý thuyt S lng Tin t  ^ JC3 4\P 7 .  op6\C4 !+,-# ./#q CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 13 Tc  lu chuyn Tc  lu chuyn  C4J,N &P 8r )'C  %_8N DP6 OM8),; 88*+DG01)' +CZ B%  01N2)'7kjjg? L bcjj3 *<DG01)'8'0% L  5bgjj3 L ^sOM8),;*<DG01 )'c8'0%)'7kjjg L ='?P * 5c CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 14 Tc  lu chuyn, Tc  lu chuyn, tip theo tip theo  t&0u%_8D8N =  0 1 )'E 0 5P *  5)%98B8'0% 1 5 CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 15 Tc  lu chuyn, Tc  lu chuyn, tip theo tip theo  VG01v=w08_8&,*\ ')%8'0%. aE? 2 3 0 1 × = )'E 2 5D*< WxDPxv=wX 3 5D*< Wv=wHX 2 × ×× × 3 5)%D*< Wv=w08_8X CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 16 Phng trình s lng Phng trình s lng  2#4 +-#5 1 × ×× × 0 5 2 × ×× × 3 0HI%_8P * 4.  t&  OB:N E@>'%_898,. CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 17 Cu tin và phng trình s lng Cu tin và phng trình s lng  1y2 5 +#6? &D:898 .  ^  &6JN W 1y2 X 0 5 7 3 )'E 7 5*<&K*+PpS \sO. W 7 &'DX 4 CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 18 Cu tin và phng trình s lng Cu tin và phng trình s lng  6N W 1y2 X 0 5 7 3  *J);DP*<N 1 × ×× × 0 5 2 × ×× × 3  ^P4S8@N 7 5gy 0  aK*+S*JPD' \98K W 7 \XDP6 88*+DG01 W 0 BX. CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 19 tr li tr li Lý thuyt S lng Tin t Lý thuyt S lng Tin t  ,p6\*J);DP*<  DG 0 &P%('DN = 0 0  z\%&?*J);DP*< E*<*D8 × = × 1 0 2 3 CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 20 Lý thuyt S lng Tin t Lý thuyt S lng Tin t , , tip theo tip theo ^:*<%*&'N  z\ 0 P%?%v=w08 _8 W 2 × 3 X  v=wH*<%,[ 8 & & 98C&&DB W*JnX  ^:& 2 5Wv=w08_8XyWv=wHX × = × 1 0 2 3 CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 21 Lý thuyt S lng Tin t Lý thuyt S lng Tin t , tip theo , tip theo  R\I"*JkN 2P 798 ,-\*<,-\ 98P 7.  w*J;DP*<,0{>'P 7N 1 0 2 3 1 0 2 3 ∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ + = + ∆ >D''>>80 8'0?0'8 5j. 0 0 0 CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 22 Lý thuyt S lng Tin t Lý thuyt S lng Tin t , tip theo , tip theo a4 π WC H | !#X & 3 4 N 1 2 3 1 2 3 ∆ ∆ ∆ = + 2 2 ∆ = π π ∆ ∆ = − 1 3 1 3 aID0>)*\ 'BN v8*J );&8; *< πN CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 23 Lý thuyt S lng Tin t Lý thuyt S lng Tin t , tip theo , tip theo  27)*[CM*+rl  DH87B% @}DH87988'0%.  VH87\JDH7)*[ CD~0u. π ∆ ∆ = − 1 3 1 3 5 CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 24 Lý thuyt S lng Tin t Lý thuyt S lng Tin t , tip theo , tip theo ∆ ∆∆ ∆ 3y3 1 &'DH8798 DB&, M4 W+'KP&&')*\X. π ∆ ∆ = − 1 3 1 3 ='?VP*<240H,'  P 84 $  S8 S898P  7 & S89834. CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 25 S liu quc t v S liu quc t v lm phát tng trng tin t lm phát tng trng tin t Inflation rate (percent, logarithmic scale) 1,000 10,000 100 10 1 0.1 Money supply growth (percent, logarithmic scale) 0.1 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 Nicaragua Angola Brazil Bulgaria Georgia Kuwait USA Japan Canada Germany Oman Democratic Republic of Congo CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 26 S liu ca M v S liu ca M v lm phát tng trng tin t lm phát tng trng tin t 0 2 4 6 Growth in money supply (percent) 8 10 12 8 6 4 2 0 - 2 - 4 1970s 1910s 1940s 1980s 1960s 1950s 1990s 1930s 1920s 1870s 1890s 1880s 1900s Inflation rate (percent) CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 27 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 % per year inflation rate inflation rate trend Lm phát & Tng trng tin t ca M, Lm phát & Tng trng tin t ca M, 1960 1960 - - 2001 2001 CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 28 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 % per year inflation rate M2 growth rate inflation rate trend M2 trend growth rate Lm phát & Tng trng tin t ca M, Lm phát & Tng trng tin t ca M, 1960 1960 - - 2001 2001 CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 29 Thu lm phát Thu lm phát  t&CM7'U ,)?9E.  !='8# E*<I4 *<K&6-9  6-9N •7)8.P * C'&'*+S. 6 CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 30 Lm phát và lãi sut Lm phát và lãi sut  DB08_8?  CM*<x>'  DB08_8?  *<x>'N  5  − π CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 31 Hiu ng Fisher Hiu ng Fisher  w*J); €D>)N  5  hπ  "*J nN : 5 ; %  .  ='?DH 8798 π 0u DH 87*J: 98  .  ^P84  $  & *<K& <!=) *. CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 32 Lm phát và lãi sut danh ngha Lm phát và lãi sut danh ngha  U  U .S .S ., ., 1952 1952 - - 1998 1998 % 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 Lãi sut danh ngha t l lm phát 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 Nm 1975 1980 1985 1990 20001995 CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 33 Lm phát và lãi sut danh ngha Lm phát và lãi sut danh ngha  các nc  các nc Inflation rate (percent, logarithmic scale) Nominal interest rate (percent, logarithmic scale) 100 10 1 1 10 100 1000 Kenya Kazakhstan Armenia Nigeria Uruguay United Kingdom United States Singapore Germany Japan France Italy CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 34 Bài tp: Bài tp: vDG 0 &P%? 1 7c• 7? 3 7 k• 7? &  5i. 8. 2  WDB08_8X. ,. R€>0 7P 7 k•  7?  ∆ ∆∆ ∆  . . vDGP 7 3 Prg•  7.  t;D~)8\ π T  €>0&;S π P%T CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 35 áp án: áp án: 8. 2)*\? ; π 5c− k5n. V8E? ;  5  h π 5ihn5f. ,. ∆ ∆∆ ∆  5k?,-\DH8798P 7 . . R€>0 CM:;? ∆ ∆∆ ∆ π 5g. t P?€>0P 7 g6)7s7. vDG 0 P%? 1 7 c• 7? 3 7 k• 7? &  5i. 7 CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 36 Hai lãi sut thc t Hai lãi sut thc t  π 53 4 H WCM,*<'\CE )8X  π > 53 4 CZ K    π > 5DBH #> N & :DBK*+CZ K+ K 8)'U8    π 5DBH  N & :DB& K*+HDH  *<I )'U) 'C' 8 CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 37 Cu tin và lãi sut danh ngha Cu tin và lãi sut danh ngha  VP*<24%)-6 DP0*Hx1 &' H 3 .  o+@8>A P %6CN DB08_8.  DB08_8  &J 98 4SW8;S)'U &DEDBCX.  ='? ↑ ↑↑ ↑     ↓ ↓↓ ↓ 6. CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 38 Hàm cu tin Hàm cu tin W 1y2 X 0 56H? 1   &'   &J 984S  0*J&' 3 3 &\   &    0'? 6J W & *<DG01,0{&6 ,[;&&DE8C'8' B.X ( ) ( , ) 0 1 2 &  3 = CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 39 Hàm cu tin Hàm cu tin aK*+%S8) ?KCM,D~&,8' . ='?DB08_8*[ 6&  hπ > . ( ) ( , ) 0 1 2 &  3 = ( , ) * &  3 += π CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 40 Cân bng Cân bng ( , ) * 1 &  3 2 = + π "DP0* H "6H CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 41 Cái gì quyt nh cái gì Cái gì quyt nh cái gì ,DP *<% W)'0&X 1 'D WR|2‚X  x : 5 ; 3 ( , ) * 1 &  3 2 = + π W ? X 3 ) 8 & = 2 x W ? X 1 &  3 2 = 8 CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 42 2 2 phn ng th nào vi phn ng th nào vi ∆ ∆∆ ∆ ∆ ∆∆ ∆ 1 1  z\S)%B%98  ? 3 ?& π > ? DH898 1 C' 2 8 Q34 $$$ P*>' VP*<24. ( , ) * 1 &  3 2 = + π CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 43 Lm phát k vng Lm phát k vng  2)'0&?'*+CMpD861 )'40H ,' 8''U B? 0'),; π > 5π.  2)'p?π > E  8CK*+E M\.  z=N v DG R|2‚ M,')-)'7\K D~ 7 1 . ^K*+D~ CZ K: 2 )' 7\8'J?0' π > 7.  t&D~ *[ 2 4?U0Q 1 *8 8. W>'qX CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 44 2 2 phn ng vi phn ng vi ∆ ∆∆ ∆ ∆ ∆∆ ∆ π π e e th th   n n à à o o ( , ) * 1 &  3 2 = + π ↑  ↑   W>€D>)X * π ππ π ( ) 0  1 2  ↓ ( )  ↑ C>' 8 0>C')888,8 2 1 2  z\S)%B%98  ? 3 ?& 1 ? CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 45 Câu hi tho lun Câu hi tho lun  -9--?!@  )8;P\ T 4CBSEE.  2)&'0&.  V* &C. CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 46 Mt nhn thc sai lm ph bin Mt nhn thc sai lm ph bin  V86,N &*JH  t&x@)'p?C *J08_8,%P%,[< O.  W"*J nX2)'0&? *J H *<%,[ 8' &D},8' ? :CM:834 .  ƒ>ADP4q CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 47 Thu nhp trung bình theo gi Thu nhp trung bình theo gi & & CPI CPI 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 $ per hour 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 CPI (1983=100) Average hourly earnings Hourly earnings in 2001 dollars Consumer Price Index 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 $ per hour 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 CPI (1983=100) Average hourly earnings Hourly earnings in 2001 dollars Consumer Price Index 9 CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 48 Quan im c in v lm phát Quan im c in v lm phát  „8N VH898:xJ6&DH 8J%'*+ z;D8' z;D8' & B98 T & B98 T CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 49 Chi phí xã hi ca lm phát Chi phí xã hi ca lm phát q)J&' )'8'D8N g. C0HC*< k. SCC\: &K*+CZK. CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 50 Chi phí ca lm phát d kin: Chi phí ca lm phát d kin:   . . chi phí giy da chi phí giy da  %_8N  & S,B4984p S -) .  ↑ π  ↑ i  ↓ DP 0* H  R\)-N 2)'0&?CM *[H'UH .  ='?\Q*<&* *<FS J:& & *+J )@S*<l. CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 51 Chi phí ca lm phát d kin: Chi phí ca lm phát d kin:   . .    %_8N " 9848.  z 01N  SHJ\  B(GS,,'\  &8'?0'84 &*+8 & %S &. CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 52 Chi phí ca lm phát d kin: Chi phí ca lm phát d kin:   . . (A9BC#+ (A9BC#+  "0'84PU\HJ 8*+.  z01N vDG 0'84&P\4D }&'^ &7.a: 7)'7?:*JP980'84 D~.  "0'84C8898K S+C8?0uSDH,E A'*JPq  q&)8DHCM4CM )'4,OH. CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 53 Chi phí ca lm phát d kin: Chi phí ca lm phát d kin: D D . . +EF67G(4H +EF67G(4H ^ DP ' CM*<x  ? 01 *  <:P. z 01N  gygykjjgN,8 bgj?jjj )%   98 V8),CD  gkyngykjjgN,,*< ) \ bgg?jjj? 0'<:P& bgjjjWgj•X.  v DG π 5gj•)'7kjjg. <:PH 98,& bj.  29 6,   P\C'<:08_8 bgjjj…… 10 CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 54 Chi phí ca lm phát d kin: Chi phí ca lm phát d kin: I I . . :(J! :(J!  C'4D'D )% 08_8+CZ C8CE C7J.  t&&:4C '& 0&. CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 55 Chi phí ca lm phát không d kin: Chi phí ca lm phát không d kin: Tái phân phi tu tin sc mua Tái phân phi tu tin sc mua  R<O0&CM*<x DP '? & x 0H8) π > .  R π C\ π > ? ;  DP *+*<<I 498S *+C. z 01N*+8('8 L R π † π > ?; W  − −− − π X‡W  − −− − π > X & D:8*<I *+'8D8 *+8. L R π ‡ π > ?; D:8*<I *+ 8D8*+'8. CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 56 Chi phí ca lm phát không d kin Chi phí ca lm phát không d kin : : tng tính bt n tng tính bt n  a8'?E &0{ 8& CM0H '*<N π *+C\π > ? & DH  4&E *\\J WU0Q CM0*J'U E 4 PX  2P98 Z 40{ )8J.  t&)8,B8'?C' S*+A)9)',% 4. CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 57 Mt li ích ca lm phát Mt li ích ca lm phát  2*J08_8)BC,%p? C*JH,-.  'A*JH)[ :*J,-&CM6p *J08_8.  ='?I84'  98%)*+8' .   2*J08_8)BC,%p? 2*J08_8)BC,%p? C*JH,-. C*JH,-.   'A*JH)[ 'A*JH)[ :*J,-&CM6p :*J,-&CM6p *J08_8. *J08_8.   ='?I84'  ='?I84'  98%)*+8' . 98%)*+8' . CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 58 Siêu lm phát Siêu lm phát  %_8N π ≥ ≥≥ ≥ cj•   2B98I8M[) )[      \D.  2CMr:70H)S)%?&E CMr:7CWJ%'? *J4)8'X.  ^K*+EH48'0%& &'UDG01 O'4E)% %. CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 59 !iu gì gây ra siêu lm phát? !iu gì gây ra siêu lm phát?  V)80'7)*[ \N  aR|2‚?:7.  RK98D~)8 . [...]...Nh ng di"n bi n c a siêu l m phát g n ây T i sao chính ph gây ra siêu l m phát KK KK a , • 7 KK K 9C M ? ) K & )< 7 ' 'U ,- K K 2 >' ? P J K 2)' p \ D N 0I \ H ? & r l DH 4 &C EC 7 U & • D)8> w8 0 ' o)8ˆ ‰ > ) 8 w >) R 8)8 8 o' 8 g e $e g e $d g e $d g e $d g e $d g e $d g e $e dn c dd j df i de j de j df g di c l m phát t ng tr ng cung ti n slide 60 S phân ôi c 6 *< N *J . Inflation slide 32 Lm phát và lãi sut danh ngha Lm phát và lãi sut danh ngha  U  U .S .S ., ., 1952 1952 - - 1998 1998 % 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 Lãi sut danh ngha t l lm phát 1950. C'&'*+S. 6 CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 30 Lm phát và lãi sut Lm phát và lãi sut  DB08_8?  CM*<x>'  DB08_8?  *<x>'N  5  − π CHAPTER. 20001995 CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation Money and Inflation slide 33 Lm phát và lãi sut danh ngha Lm phát và lãi sut danh ngha  các nc  các nc Inflation rate (percent, logarithmic