Luận văn thạc sĩ Quy hoạch và quản lý tài nguyên nước: Integrated water resources planning using weap model in the Cau river basin

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE ANDRURAL DEVELOPMENT INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES PLANNING USING WEAP MODEL IN THE CAU RIVER BASIN Nguyen Thi Thuy Linh MSc Thesi

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND

RURAL DEVELOPMENT

INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES PLANNING USING

WEAP MODEL IN THE CAU RIVER BASIN

Nguyen Thi Thuy Linh MSc Thesis on Intergrated Water Resources Management

February 2015

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION ANDTRAINING MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND.

RURAL DEVELOPMENT

NGUYEN THI THUY LINH

INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES PLANNING USI

WEAP MODEL IN THE CAU RIVER BASIN

Major: Intergrated Water Resources Management

THESIS OF MASTER DEGREE

Supervisors:

1 Dr Ngo Van Quan

2 A/Prof Pham Quy Nhan

‘This reseacrch is done for the partial fulfilment of requirement for

Master of Science Degree at Thuy Loi University(This Master Programme is supported by NICHE ~ VNM 106 Project)

February 2015

‘The Cau River is a tributary of the Thai Binh river system in the North of VietnamDifferent water users (agriculture, domes industry ) are present in the basinRising population and inereasing water provision in rural and urban areas, inconjunction with the development of the industry or agriculture are going to greatlyworsen the complexity of future water resources planning in what is already a water-stressed basin

Being able to assess the ability of the basin to satisfy potential water demands isdecisive in order to plan for the future and make positive decisions In this study, ascenario analysis approach was used in conjunction with the Water Evaluation andPlanning model, in order to assess the impacts of possible water demands on thewater resources of the Cau river basin in 2030, For each scenario, the water resourceimplications were compared to a 2012 “baseline scenario.” The model enabledanalyses of unmet water demands, and water storage for each scenario,

“The model results show that for the different scenarios considered in this study theimplementation of the water resources allocation wil i ere we the shortages for othersectors The construction of the main water storage infrastructure proposed byirrigation planning in the Cau river basi in conjunetion with the application of thepercentage allocation method, can reduce the unmet demands and shortfalls to levelslower than, or similar to, those experienced in the 2012 baseline However, in all

‘eases these interferences will be inadequate to completely meet the demands of allthe sectors A tight control of the growth in future demands is essential, although thismay be difficult in a rapidly developing country like Vietnam

“The matter embodied in this thesis has not been submitted by me for the award of any

‘other degree or diploma

Date: February 24, 2014

Nguyen Thi Thuy Linh

This study was completed in the Faculty of Water Resources Engineering of ThuyLoi University I am sincerely grateful to all my supervisors, Doctor Ngo Van Quanand Associate Professor Doctor Pham Quy Nhan; teachers who have alwaysencouraged and motivated me and who have given enthusiastic guidance andsuggestions during the learning process and completion of my thesis

Tam sincerely grateful thanks to the supporters of the project NICHE VNM-106 ofthe Dutch government (NUFFIC)

1 also would like to express my sincere gratitude to the teacher in the Faculty ofWater Resources Engineering, who were helpful in conveying knowledge andtechnical expertise during my study

| would like to say thanks to my family, colleagues and friends who were cheering,

‘encouraging and creating favorable conditions in my study and my thesis processBecause of the limited time and experience, the thesis has inevitable shortcomings

‘Therefore, I look forward to advice from the teachers so that my thesis will be morecomplete

STUDE!

NGUYEN THI THUY LINH

ABSTRACT 1

DECLARATION isesnsnnennnnninnnnnnnnninennnnnnnnnnennnnnns 7ACKNOWLEGEMENT

LIST OF FIGURES 5LIST OF TABLES 6Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION 81.1 Background 81.2 Problem Statement 91.3 Objective of study 10Chapter 2: LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Integrated water resources management "2.2 Integrated water resources planning 22.3 Integrated water resources planing in Vietnam 152.4 Some model about water allocation 72.4.1 GIBSI model 182.4.2 BASIN model 182.4.3 MIKE model 202.4.4 WEAP model 20Chapter 3: MATERIAL AND STUDY AREA s5csee 243.1 Characteristic of Cau river basin pry3.2 Water Resources issues 263.3 Social-economic development 73.4 Current water use for each sector: 30Chapter 4: METHODOLOGY S555 <esseseeserrreoee 324.1 Conceptual framework, 324.2 WEAP method 33

4.2.1 Program Structure: 34

4.2.2 Using WEAP model 37CHAPTER 5: RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS.

5.1 Results of calculation water demand in the current situation 395.1.1 Divide to small sub-basins to calculate water demand: 395.1.2 Determine water demand in sub-basins 385.1.3 Calculate flow rate in sub-basins 465.1.4 Nui Coe reservoir in Cong river sub-basin 45.2 Results of water allocation in current situation, 45.3 Water allocation under scenarios to develop society and economy of the Cau river

basin 45

5.3.1 Results of water allocation for the 2013-2030 period 495.3.2 Results of water allocation for 4 scenarios in the future (from 2013 to 2030)525.3.3 Select option and propose solution for Integrated water ressources planning inthe Cau river 615.4 Discussions: 6CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS67

61 Summary and Conclusions 66.2 Recommendations 68

63 Future works: “3

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2.1: Water resources planning process 4Figure 3.1: Overview of the Cau river basin and river network (Institute for WaterResources Planning Hanoi, 2009) 24

‘igure 4.1: The flow chart of analysis water allocation planning for the Cau RiverBasin 3Figure 5.1: Four Sub-basins in Cau river basin 40Figure 5.2: Modeling diagram about water allocation in curent situation 48Figure 5.3 Results of calculation water shortage in 2012 48Figure 5.4: Results of water demand in 2030 with orientated development plan 50Figure 5.5: Results of water demand for the 2013-2030 period with orientateddevelopment plan 50

Figure 5.6: Result of calculation water shortage in 2030 (billion m) 31

igure 5.7: Develop scenarios and calculate water balance under scenarios 34Figure 5.8 Results of water demand in 2013 of 4 scenarios 55Figure 5.9: Results of calculations water shortage for 4 scenarios 56

Figure 5.10 Chart of water shortage of water users in 2030 - scenario 1 (million m°)S7 Figure 5.11 Chart of water shortage of water users in 2030 - scenario 2 (million m’)S8

Figure 5.12 Chart of water shortage of water users in 2030 - scenario 3 (million mỶ)59)

Figure 5.13 Chart of water shortage of water users in 2030 - scenario 4 (million mỶ)60,

Figure 5.14 Results of calculation water shortage for scenarios 4 and 5 63

LIST OF TABLES

‘Table 5.1: The data for Four Sub-t Cau river basin 4i

‘Table 5.2: The main sectors of water used in the Cau river basin 42

‘Table 5.3: Irrigation water demand in the sub-basins of Cau River basin, 4

‘Table 5.4: Domestic water demand in the sub-basins of Cau River basin 43

‘Table 5.5: Industrial water demand in the sub-basins of Cau River basin 44

‘Table 5.6: Summary of calculating water demand in 2012 of each sub-basin in theCau river basin 45

‘Table 5.7: The Meteorological stations in Cau river basin 46

‘Table 5.8: Average flow in sub-basin (m'Vs) 46 Table 5.9: Result of unmet demand in 2012(million m’Vs) 49

‘Table 5.10: Unmet demand of water supply for the 2013-2030 period (million m°)S1

‘Table 5.11: Summary of 4 scenarios of water resources in the Cau river basin 54

‘Table 5.12: The water demand for 4 scenarios for the 201 2030 period (billion m')

5s

‘Table 5.13: Unmet demand of 4 seenarios for the 2013-2030 periodt(billion m’) 56

Table 5.14 The results of the water shortage of water users in 2030 - scenario 1(milion m’) 5Table 5.15 The results of the water shortage of water users in 2030 - scenario 2

Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background

Water seems to be an endless resource, the inexhaustible gift of nature Thiswas a fact more than 30 years ago, but with the many changes in the lives of people,the economic situation the shortage of water has become one of the top concernsfor humanity Today, water is used in an unsustainable way in the majority in theWorld In all the countries in the world water is predicted to become scarcer by 2025

or even earlier due to continuously increasing demand This reality constitutes @major threat towards sustainable development and achievement of millennium

‘development goals in the region About only 1% of the world’s fresh water, aecurs inthe region with 5% of the world’s total population, Water demands have dramaticallyincreased as a consequence of a high population growth rate, expansion ofagriculture, and the lack of and a weak water policy Many counties actually suffer,think of the Middle East, North Africa, there are areas there too that are severelyaffected by scarce water resources are now suffering from water deficiency and other

‘countries will face this problem in the near futur

Hence, we need (0 regulate the water usage t0 ensure a sustainable, equitableand efficient utilization of the resource The allocation of the water resources isnormally made through a permit or licensing system, which the system enables thegovernment or state authorities to control the resources taking into account allstakeholder interests In our country with abundant water resources this may not beneeded but with the increased pressure on the water resources, both in terms of

‘quantity and quality, the abundant water supply is becoming a rare situation

In recent years, the research applies mathematical models as a tool to supportintegrated management of water resources, when consid water resourcedevelopment, water resource planning, administration and management of waterresources in river basin in the world as well as in the country increasingly powerfulplace The tool applies mathematical models to contribute in the integratedmanagement of water resources, water resource managers, and the household sector

water use in the river basin will have, as a result of this tool, a more synthetic andmore comprehensive vision of the water resources in the river basin At the sametime, stakeholders seek consensus, shared opportunities and orientations to exploitWater resources in the basin to meet the immediate and long term goals.

‘The Cau river basin is selected as the subject of the research in whichinformation on water resources, water resources development (basin planningand water allocation), and institution and management mechanisms in the basin

is collected and analyzed to identify challenges and development trends in basinwater resources and to propose appropriate solutions to achieve the objectives of theproject.

1.2 Problem Statement

In the Cau river basin, different water users (rural, urban, subsistence,commercial irrigated agriculture, industry, ete.) are present in the basin whereinjustice is an issue in the access to water There has been a significanttransformation of the water and land legislation in Vietnam This will affect futureland distribution and water allocation, The development of the industry theconstruction of new power generation plants, along with the population growth, therevitalization of small-scale irrigation schemes and the improvement in accessibility

to water in the rural areas, all are going to increase the water demands,

On the other hand, there are several socio-economic, political and legalprocesses taking place in the Cau river basin that will affect the water demand andthe allocation of water Being able to assess the capacity of this area to satisfy futurewater demands is essential in order to plan for the future and make wise decisionsMoreover, under the impact of climate change, the Cau River basin faces a risingtendency of water shortage The water supply for domestic use, the industry, andlivestock is sufficient; however, itis the water shortage in the basin due to irrigationrequirement, which is the major problem Water shortage happens in the dry seasonhen the river flow goes down, rainfall is low, and evaporation is high In the rainyseason, (otal rainfall is high, and there is no water shortage, This thesis has identified

the use of modeling tools in conjunction with scenario analyze as an importantapproach to develop water management strategies and to achieve integratedmanagement of water resources.

However, due to the limitation of funds, the scope of the research, theexpertise and time, the project could only be carried out for a part of the water sectoractivities in the Cau river basin related to allocation, development, and management

of the b: particularly water sector investment in the basin, Awater resoure:tailed analysis will be part of a new research project

1.3 Objective of study

‘The main objective of the study is to apply Water Evaluation and PlanningSystem (WEAP) as the tool supporting in allocation planning of water resources inthe Cau river bay Specific objectives of the study are

+ To develop a conceptual framework of water allocation for the Cau riverbasin;

+ To use the WEAP model 10 simulate and develop the scenarios of waterresources allocation for the current scenario and the 2013-2030 period in theCau river basin;

+ To analyze, assess and select the scenario for water resources planning in the

Cau river basin,

Chapter 2: LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Integrated water resources management

“The integrated water resources management approach helps to manage anddevelop water resources in a sustainable and balanced way, taking account of social,economic and environmental interests It recognizes the many different and

‘competing interest groups, the sectors that use and abuse water, and the needs of theenvironment, The integrated approach coordinates water resources: managementacross sectors and interest groups, and at different scales, from local to international

It emphasizes involvement in national policy and law making processes, establishinggood governance and creating effective institutional and regulatory arrangements asroutes to more equitable and sustainable decisions A range of tools, such as socialand environmental ass ‘ments, economic instruments, and information andmonitoring systems, support this process

“The use of scientific means to enhance understanding through modeling of the

‘current and possible scenarios due to the various water resources development and

‘changes in supply conditions forms a decision support for water managers at thecatchment level Such modeling can be achieved through; water balance models,

‘ground water flow models and economic water use models (Alfara, 2001)

Water resources planning, once an exercise based primarily on engineering

‘considerations, increasingly occurs as part of a complex, multi-disciplinaryinvestigation that bring together a wide array of individuals and organizations withvaried inte s, technical expertise, and priorities In this multi-disciplinary setting,successful planning requires effective IWRM models that can clarify the complexsues that cana TWRM is viewed as a systema process for the sustainable

development, allocation and monitoring of water resources use in the context ofsocial, economic and environmental objective (Cap-Net, 2005),

In any catchment, water availability problems occur when the demand forwater exceeds the amount available during a certain period Freshwater shortages

‘occur frequently in areas with low rainfall and high population density and in areas

With intensive agricultural or industrial activity The Cau river basin has large spatialand temporal differences in the amount of fresh water available These are felt more

‘because of rainfall variability in the basin and the differences are expected to change

‘due to climate changes, Other pressures on water quantity arise from the mainsectorial users of water, such as agriculture, livestock, households, vital ecosystemstourism and industry The impacts of over abstraction of available water includedecreases in groundwater levels and surface water flows that in tum can lead toimpacts on associated aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems In addition, over abstraction

of groundwater and lack of sufficient recharge can lead to the intrusion of salt water

at the lowland aquifers in the catchment

2.2 Integrated water resources planning

Integrated Water Resources Planning (IWRP) defines a approach to themanagement of water systems combining water supply, water demand, and waterquality IWRP evolved from a growing recognition of the interconnection ofenvironmental systems and society's impacts within them (Beecher, 1995) In manyareas, increasing populations and water demands have exceeded regionally-mindedplanning; by sharing resources with neighboring areas, planners have found morecost-effective solutions to water scarcity

There are three basic planning paradigms that are used in water resourcesplanning, regardless of the specific steps or approaches applied in the planningprocess These adi \ are the planning iteration, screening, and scoping Thesetechnique are required; water resource planning is a very broad process and settingthe boundaries and constraints of a study are often difficult Often budget and timelimitations help define the breadth of the study that can be performed, but becausewater resources planning such an open-ended process, the three paradigmspresented here are very useful in guiding the process Bach planning characteristic isdiscussed below

(1) Planning iteration: Heration implies doing the same thing more than onee

In planning, iteration implies returning to an analysis when more information is

available, when a different level of detail is necessary, or when new evaluationtechniques have emerged.

‘The planning process is one that is improved when it is performed more than

‘once This not only implies that reviews improve evaluations, but that the level ofdetail of evaluations is likely to change during the planning process Planning is not asimple linear process Any process that encourages feedback from stakeholders willnaturally require some degree of iteration, Feedback typically creates newinformation or helps to identify new priorities or areas of increased interestIncorporating this information improves the quality of a plan if itis considered

(2) Ser ening: Screening is a basic systems engineering concept Screening isthe process of iteratively examining altematives to select those which will receivefurther consideration and those that will not A principal goal of sereening is toeffectively reduce the quantity of detailed analysis that is necessary, withoutcliminating alternatives which should be evaluated fully Sereening does not implyfull evaluation and ranking, it implies making use of expertise and sound judgment to

time effectively Without some form of screening, almost any waterresource planning effort would become too complex and intricate to accomplish,With sereening, promising altematives are provided an opportunity for full

‘evaluation and inferior altematives are excluded from further evaluation

) Scoping is also another basic systems engineering concept Scopingidentifies the boundaries of the problem to be addressed and the boundaries of thesolutions to be considered Scoping is particularly important in evaluating waterresources planning because the National Environmental Policy Act defines scoping

as a required process In that act, scoping is defined as “an early and open processfor determining the scope of issues to be addressed and for identifying the significant

sues related to a proposed action” Scoping has been used in many studies as a

formal procedure to ensure the input of stakeholders in the planning process.Although there are many ways to organize the planning process, a number of specificprocedures with well identified steps have be (ed in the literature (Palmer,

1999; Keyes and Palmer, 1995) The seven step process described here is an example

of a “disciplined, iterative process.”

AlRerati `— | Alternati

Figure 2.1: Water resources planning process

‘This implies that all steps must be performed and recognizes the naturalfeedback that exists between all steps The number of steps and their boundaries areJess important than the general planning philosophy, that is, good water resourcesplanning involves carefully defining the challenges faced, defining the planningenvironment and including all those that might impact or be impacted by the plan,creating a comprehensive and creative set of altematives for addressing thechallenges, selecting among those alternatives the one plan that best addresses the

‘objectives and constraints of the challenge, and creating an comprehensive approach

to implementing that plan

2.3 Integrated water resources planing in Vietnam

In our country, there have been some studies on water resources planning onthe basis of economic efficiency of water use, stich as the studies about waterresources planing in Dong Nai river basin or in the Red river basin

In terms of the system of legal documents including current laws, deci

‘The basis and principles for water resources planning are applying in Vietnam:

s, circulars,the existing two legal documents specified on water resources planning, such as:

Law on water resources (17/2012/QH13)

Decree 120/2008/ND-CP on river basin management

Decree 201/2013/ND-CP: regulations detailing the implementation of somearticles of Law on Water Resources

these documents shall be as follows:

A river basin planning comprises the following component plannings

Planning on allocation of water resources;

Planning on protection of water resources;

Planning on prevention, combat and address of consequences of harms caused

by water

‘A component planning may cover the whole basin, oe ora several sub-basin

In thị thesis, I will focus on one component planning: planning on the allocation

‘of water resources According to the Article 14 (Decree 120/2008/ND-CP), the major

‘contents of a planning on allocation of river basin water resources ate:

‘Assessing the Volume and quality and forecasting the development trends of

‘water resources, and the current status of water resource exploitation and usefor every water source.

entifying water needs and existing problems in the comprehensiveexploitation and use of water resources and establishing the priority order andcapacity to meet water needs for daily lif agriculture, hydro-power, fishery,industries, transport, tourism, other socio-economic activities andenvironmental protection for every water source

= Determine the priority order and water resource allocation rates in the water

resource exploitation and use for daily life and other purposes, including waterneeds for environmental protection in ca e of droughts or water shortage

= Detern ning water use purposes, minimum flows to be maintained in riversections in basins and necessary measures to deal with matters spec

Clause 2 of this Article

~ Proposing networks for water resource supervision, water use oversight andthe adjustment of parameters or adjustment of the current operation of waterresouree-exploiting and -using works (if necessary)

= entifying needs for water transfer among sub-basins within a river basin:needs for water transfer with other river basins (i any)

= Proposing construction measures for water resource development with a view tomeeting the needs for water for socio-economic development in the basin

= entifying implementation solutions and schedule for planning.

Besides the content of article 14 from 120/2008/ND-CP, the thesis will

‘concer about priority in the water supply These documents shall be as follows: Thehighest priority for water supply is domestic water demand in all other purposes(Amtcle 54 Law on Water Resources) and provide competent priority water supplyduring drought (Article 5, 45, 46 Decree 201/2013/ND-CP), but not clear guidance

‘on the relationship between the priorities or purpose is selected, if any, takeprecedence over the other uses, As follows

‘The regulation and distribution of water resources for different use purpomust be based on the water resource master plan, the actual capacity of water sourcesand water resource regulation and distribution plans, and adhe to the following

principles:

~ Assuring fairness and rationality among water users on the same river basin,between upstream and downstream areas and between the right bank and theleft bank;

= Prioritizing water in terms of both quantity and quality for use for daily-lifeactivities and agricultural production to assure food security and meet otheressential needs of people:

= Assuring the maintenance of the minimum flow and groundwater exploitationlimits;

= Combining the exploitation and use of surface water with exploitation and use

of groundwater and rainwater; increasing storage of water in the rainy seasonfor use in the dry season,

‘Therefore, the decree and law provide the basis for the formulation andimplementation of water resources planning Laws and decrees also identified anumber of fundamental issues, as required to determine the priority of water supply

to cope with water shortages, but in reality does not fully solve the problem And itcan be said that in the current situation, consider the allocation problem of waterresources in the basin in our country concerned only 5 years ago and in the initialstage of research methodology

“The main principles and objectives outlined in the Law on Water Resources andthe related regulations on water resources planning can be interpreted as Follows

Principle 1: The need for sustainable water use and no degradation of water

Principle 2: Water activities are first priority:

Principle 3: utilization of water shall not exceed the “real volume” of water, andPrinciple 4: planning and allocation of water resources to ensure “equity”.2.4 Some model about water allocation

Due to the requirements of developing river basin water resources to meet therequirements of economic development - social Today the world has done to buildthe model, the model system to evaluate the impact of human conditions to buffersurface water resources, Maybe at some models are widely used around the world asfollows:

2.4.1 GIBSI model

GIBSI system model is applied to the watershed ecosystems in Canada and thedevelopment of industry, agriculture, urban complex, GIBSI is an integrated modelingsystem running on a PC to the test results the impact of agriculture, industry, water

‘management both in terms of quantity and quality of water resources

GIBSI model for forecasting the impact of the industry, forest, urban, agriculturalprojects for the natural environment, effective water users wamted in advance and respectstandards the quantity and quality of water resources

GIBSI isa set of model components include:

- HYDROTEL hydrological model;

- Model physical resolution remote sensing systems, geographic informationsystems

~ USLE model for sediment transport and erosion;

~ Model spreading chemicals in agriculture is based on the modeling of nitrogen,phosphorus, pesticides (using a module in SWAT model};

- Models QUAL2E water quality, water quality model to simulate the elements: the

Aiffusion and flocculation of water-soluble substances (pollutants); the development ofalgae; the cycle of nitrogen, phosphorus; the decay Coliform: how ventilation; thetemperature of the water

2.4.2 BASIN model

Model basins built by the Office of Environmental Protection(The UnitedStates) The model is constructed to provide a better assessment tools and moreintegrated emission sources and not concentrate concentrated in the management ofwater quality in the basin, This is a model of environmental systems analysis andmulti-purpose, capable of application to a country, a region to carry out research onwater quality and quantity, including the basin The model was designed to meetthree objectives: (1) Convenience in the control of environmental information; (2)Assist in the analysis of environmental systems; (3) Provide a system of basinmanagement plans

Model basins are a useful tool in research on water quality and quantity Withthe many modular components in the system, computation time is shortened, manyproblems are solved and the information management more efficient models Withthe use of GIS, model basins more convenient to denote the combination ofinformation and (land use, traffic emissions sources, Water regression, ) in any onelocation The components of the model allows users to determine the impact ofemissions from the point of focus and unfocused Combination of modular

‘components can help to analyze and manage the basin towards:

- Identify and prioritize the limits of the environment;

- Characteristics of emission sour -s and determine the magnitude andpotential emissions

- Sets the amount of emissions from point sources and not concentrate andfocus on the transport process as well as in the river basin

- Identify, compare the relative value of the pollution control strategies,

- Demonstration and announced to the public in the form of tables, figures and

maps.

BASIN model includes the following components model:

= Model of the river: QUAL2E, version 3.2 model water quality.

- The model basin: WinHSPF is a watershed model used to determine the

‘concentration of the waste from the waste sources and not concentrated focus in theriver, SWAT is a model based on physics is built to predict the impact of land useactivities in the basin to the flow regime, determine the amount of sediment and

‘chemicals used in agriculture throughout the basin

- The propagation model: PLOAD, is a model of viral contaminants, PLOADidentify sources of emissions, the average concentration in a certain time period,

‘The function of the model allows users BASIN demonstrated, data andperform analysis according to the different goals BASIN model is widely used in the

United States, it is convenient for storage and analysis of environmental information,and can be used as a tool to support decision making in the process of building

‘management framework basin

2.4.3 MIKE model

Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHD to build software evaluation and analysis of theproblems of water quality and quantity, the software is helpful in planning thedevelopment and management of water resources sustainability perspective, MIKE,BASIN software with ArcView GIS interface is a model simulating water basin

MIKE model includes a lot of software you have the functions and tasks such asMIKE 11, MIKE 21, MIKE 31, MIKE GIS, MIKE BASIN, MIKE SHE,

possible applications to calculate the distribution of water in the basin both in quantity and

MIKE tis

‘quality and has been applied to calculate the allocation of water resources to bring morecfficiency to the basin in the worl

2.4.4 WEAP model

‘The WEAP model was developed by the SEI to enable evaluation of planning and

‘management issues associated with water resources development The WEAP model can

be applied to both municipal and agricultural systems and can address a wide range ofissues, including sectoral demand analyses, water conservation, water rights and allocationpriorities, stream flow simulation, reservoir operation, ecosystem requirements and project

‘cost-benefit analyses (SEI 2001),

‘The WEAP model has three primary functions (Sieber et al 2004):

jimulation of natural hydrological processes (e-g., evapotranspiration, runoffand infiltration) to enable as ment of the availability of water within

‘catchment

‘* Simulation of anthropogenic activities superimposed on the natural system toinfluence water resources and their allocation (Le, consumptive and non-consumptive water demands) to enable evaluation of the impact of humanwater use,

‘+ Simulation of water allocation, the elements that comprise the water supply system and their spatial relationship are characterized forthe catchmentunder consideration, The system is represented in terms of its various watersources (e.g., surface water, groundwater, desalinization, and water reuseelements); withdrawal, transmission, reservoirs, and wastewater treatmentfacilities, and water demands (Le, user-defined sectors but typicallycomprising industry, mines, irrigation, domestic supply, ete.) The datastructure and level of detail can be customized (e.g., by combining demandsites) o correspond to the requirements of a particular analysis and constraintsimposed by limited data, A graphical interface facilitates visualization of thephysical features of the system and their layout within the catchment.

domand-The WEAP model ially performs a mass balance of flow sequentiallydown a river system, making allowance for abstractions and inflows To simulate thesystem, the river is divided into reaches The reach boundaries are determined bypoints in the river where there is a change in flow as a consequence of the confluencewith a tributary, or an abstraction or return flow, or where there is a dam or a flowgauging structure Typically, the WEAP model is applied by configuring the system

to simulate a recent “baseline” year, for which the water availability and demandscan be confidently determined The model is then used to simulate alternativescenarios (i.e plausible futures based on “what if” propositions) to assess the impact

‘of different development and management options The model optimizes water use inthe catchment using an iterative Lincar Programming algorithm, whose objective is

to maximize the water delivered to demanding sites, seording to a set of userdefined priorities All demand sites are assigned a priority between I and 99, where 1

is the highest priority and 99 the lowest When water is limited, the algorithm isformulated to progressively restrict water allocation to those demand sites given thelowest priority In the world and in our countries, many countries widely used WEAP

‘model to allocate water resources,

Up to the present time, relating to the application model WEAP in countriesaround the world with more than 30 project in the country evaluated countries on

‘most continents, including the US, China, Thailand, India, Mexico, Brazil, Germany,South Korea, Ghana, Keny: South Africa, Egypt, Israel and Oman

In the Jordan valley, the authors said that water was scarce, yet key t0 its

‘economic development A fast growing population and expanding agricultural sector

to create demands for new water resources, They present a Water Evaluation andPlanning (WEAP) model of the Jordan Vall

supply options WEAP accommodates the extensive primary and secondary spatial

IV) to evaluate alternative water

data sets behind our empirical analysis and allows the simulation of various watersupplies and demand scenarios This paper reports on the implementation andcalibration of the WEAP model against dam operating rules, showing that it ispossible to reproduce historical dam volumes accurately enough by analysis The

paper also describes five alternative water supply seenarios for the JV: business as

usual, increasing treated wastewater in irrigation, climate change, and two combinedscenarios climate change with increasing reuse, and altered patterns of agriculture tocalculate the impact on the demand and supply gap by the year 2050

WEAP Models are being widely used in order to assess the impacts of futuredevelopment trends, water management strategies, climate change, ele on theavailabilty of water resources For instance, WEAP Model has been developed in

‘order to assess the impacts of different water management decisions on theavailabilty of water inthe different watersheds of Texas (Wurbs, 2005)

“The Water Evaluation and Planning System Version (WEAP) is an IWRMmodel that seamlessly integrates water supplies generated through watershed-scalehydrologic processes with a water management model driven by water demands andenvironmental requirements WEAP considers demand priorities and supplypreferences, which are used in a linear programming heuristic to solve the waterallocation problem as an alternative to multi-criteria weighting or rule based logicapproaches It introduces a transparent set of model objects and procedures that can

be used to analyze a full range of issues faced by water planners through a scenariobased approach, Th fe issues include climate variability and change, watershedcondition, anticipated demands, ecosystem needs, the regulatory environment,operational objectives, and available infrastructure WEAP was developed by theStockholm Environment Institut 's Boston Centre at the Tellus Institute The model isdesigned to assist rather than substitute the skilled planner Arranz and McCartney(2007) have also applied the model to the Olifants catchment in South Africa, In theiranalysis, the model performed well in doing quick analysis of current and future

water demands

Chapter 3: MATERIAL AND STUDY AREA

3.1 Characteristic of Cau river basin

The Cau River is alevel 1 tributary of the Thai Binh river system in

coordinates from 21°07' to 22°18' N and 105”28' to 10608" east longitude, with a

{otal catehment area of 6030 km2 in which the forestry and agriculture area areaccounts of 64.206 ha and 241,834 ha respectively The total length of the Cau River

is about 2,885km, The Cau River has 27 tributaries of more than 10km in leneth; the

largest tributary of the river is a Kong river with area of 950 kmẺ following by Ca Lo River of about 891km `,

Study site

Cau river basin

NHÍ ly

Source WMEC (2089)

Figure 3.1: Overview of the Cau river basin and river network (Institute for

Water Resources Planning Hanoi, 2009)

‘The Cau river basin covers the area of six provinces, namely Bac Kan (4đisriet), Thai Nguyen (whole province), Bae Giang (S districts), Bac Ninh (Sdistricts), Vinh Phuc (7 districts) and Hanoi city (4 districts).

“The basin geology is complicated and diversified and classified into threemain regions: mountainous, hilly and delta areas, The basin land is suitable foragriculture: fruit tree and industrial crop in mountainous and hilly areas; paddy and

subsidiary erop in delta areas

‘Temperature: The basin mean annual temperature arranges from 18-24°C,

where the lowest annual temperature is Tam Dao area (18°C) and the highest is Hanoi city (239°C).

Rainfall: The basin mean annual rainfall ranges from 1533mm (Bac Kanprovince) to 2495mm (Tam Đảo) but uneven distributes in the rainy and dry seasons;the rainy season starts from V to IX with an amount of 80-85% of annual rainfall, dryseason starts from X to IV next year with an amount of 15-20% of annual rainfall,

Evaporation: The mean evaporation of year ranges from 800-400mm, with thehighest value is in Bac Giang province 1000mm/year and the lowest is $41mm/year

al Tam Dao,

Hydrology: The mean of the flow module in the western part of the Cau basin,where the Tam Dao mountain range with elevation more than 1,500m compare with

sea level, with high coverage of forest, is about 30 W/s-km?, and the upstream of the

‘Cau basin, where the annual rainfall is about 1700 mm, is about 21.4 Ws/km?

‘© The variation of the river flow is not so high between years with the value offlow coefficient ranges from 0.25-0.4

‘© The mean annual runoff of the basin is about 4.9 billion cubic meters anduneven distributed over space and time

The groundwater in Dai Tu district is poor with capacity of less than100m3/day with high concentrations of minerals The groundwater of the ThaiNguyen city has been fully investigated and this showed that the total capacity of

groundwater of about 50,774 mÏ/day, which is enough to meet the demand for Thai

Nguyen and its surrounding area The period and time for exploitation of this sourcedepends on the pro\ ncial exploitation plan Groundwater of the Song Cong town is notabundant; the groundwater capacity of the geographical compiles Jura-Keta is only about

150200mŸ/day so the surface water of the Cong river is the main water supply sources

for domestic and productive uses The groundwater reserve al (A+B) level of Pho

Yen District is about 11,286m'/day that meets the demand of water supply for Ba

Lang town and surrounding areas, The average groundwater exploitation for

domestic use in Dong Anh and Dap Cau areas is about 4,000-5,000 m/day.

3.2 Water Resources issues

‘The average annual amount of water per capital of the river is less than national

average (1,086m'/ head/year) The uneven distribution of the basin water resources is

the main challenge for water supply and for economic development

According to an initial investigation on groundwater, the groundwater resources

Of the basin are not abundant and unevenly distributed It is therefore necessary toconsider and harmonize the exploitation between surface and groundwater in each

region,

Although surface and groundwater of the Cau River Basin are not abundant, thebasin is adjacent to some large river systems such as Pho Day in the Northwest, theRed River in the west, and Duong River in the south and Thuong River in theNortheast Water from these rivers could be provided for the Cau River basin to servefor water use purposes, especially for downstream area,

Due to human activity and climate change, the Cau river basin water resourcesate deteriorating, the minimum iver flow observed at the Thac Rieng station in

March/2004 was only 4,9 m/s while the average monthly river flow in this month is

143 mvs, it means that dry flow has been seriously degraded (The Centre for

National Hydrometeology- MONRE)

‘The water quality in the downstream part of the Cau river basin is heavily

polluted by wastewater discharged from residential areas, industrial zones and

agriculture It is the most burdensome issue for management

Recently, the number of flash floods occurring in the basin has been increasing.The flash flood in Nhan Mon communes of Bac Kan province on 04/07/2009 had

3.3 Social-economic development

3.3.1 Population:

According to population investigation in the basin in 2008, the population of thebasin is about 4,512,363 people combining of more than nine ethnicities Average

population density is approximately 966 people per km" Cho Don and Bach Thong

districts of Bac Kan province have the lowest population density, from 56-60 people per

KH, the highest population density is Bae Giang province with about 3353 people per kan’, followed by Tu Son town (Bac Ninh province) 2138 people/kmỂ, Gia Lam (Ha

Noi) 2001people/km’ (Statistic data of provinces in 2008),

Most of the basin are living in rural areas and account for 87% of the basinpopulation An amazing point is that 92% population who are living in the basin area

‘of Hanoi capital are living in 32 rural areas in which the ratio in the Soc Son district

is 98% (because the district has not had much investment, primarily people living onagriculture) The ratio between male and female are 49.1% and 51.9% respectively.

Currently, the basin population growth rate is about 1.25% /year, and thehighest rate is in Bac Ninh province of 1.41%/year his rate is declining due to thebirth planning policy of the government, for example, in Bac Ninh province, in thefive-year plan for economic development of the province has seta target that by 2015would reduce birth rates down also 0.95% and 0.90% in 2020)

3.3.2 Economic:

A cording to statistic data in 2008, the contribution from different econonsectors in the basin economy is:

+ Agro-forestry: 21.2% (agriculture + fishery + forestry)

+ Industry and Construction: 46.9%

+ Services: 319%

However, depending on geological location and development level, the role ofsectors in each province is also different, For mountainous provinces such as BacKan and Bac Giang provinces, agriculture, aquaculture and forestry are the mainsectors while industry is the main sector in delta provinees such as Bac Ninh56.2389, Vinh Phuc 58.34%, Thai Nguyen has developed heavy industry for a longtime with two well-known industrial zones, Thai Nguyen and Song Cong, so thecontribution of industry in provincial total production is about 62.23% In the

‘capital, Hanoi, the service sector takes the leading role with conibution of 51.2% inthe year 2008 The difference in sector contributions causes the difference of average

“GDP per capita amongst provinces; the highest value is Hanoi capital of about 1,200USD while the value in Bae Kan and Bác Giang provinces

average of about 400-500 USD

is lower that the national

Poverty rates have been measured by monthly average income per capita,

ac est standard of the Government for the period 2006-2010 withwing to the làdifferent standards as follows: 260,000 dongs for urban, 200,000 dongs for rural(excluding the effeet of price index),

According to this standard, poverty rates in Cau river basin increase from theplains to mountainous areas and deerease with time, In 2007, the poverty rate washighest in Bac Can: 34.4%, following by Bae Giang: 21.28%; Thai Nguyen: 17.7%,Vinh Phue: 12%; Bac Ninh: 9.33% and Hanoi: 2.9% Over time, the poverty rate

‘decreased very rapidly, especially in the mountainous provinces In Bac Kan, in 2006the poverty rate is 41.7%, while the rate in 2008 was only 30.18% Similarly, in Thai

Nguyen province the rate was respectively: 23.74% and 17 74%; Bae Giang: 25.04%and 17.78%

Like other provinces in the basin and in Vietnam, social welfare issues arealways given priority attention by the state, especially the mountainous areas wherethere are large ethnic minority groups

8774 ha of paddy is still rain-fed areas Especially in the upstream area (upper ThacHuong weir) where works irrigate only 36% of arable land, while in the middle andLower River, inigation supplies for 80-90% of arable land Water use competitionusually occurs in North Duong, the Ca Lo River, where industrial areas, villages andresidential areas have been developed These areas have high water requirementswhich were not taken into account during project design

“The total area of maize is as follows:

~ In 2008: 38,079 ha, productivity reached 3.4 tond/ha

~ In 2008: 56,184 ha, productivity reached 4.06 tons/ha

Total cassava production area

Industrial development achieves higher growth rates primarily due to theeffective operation of the processing industry sector with foreign investment (FD.

‘These sectors are mainly car assembling factory such as Toyota and HondaCurrently, investment in industry is focused on areas such as as Noi Bai IndustrialZone-Soc Son, Thang Long industrial zone, Vinh Yen, Vinh Phuc, Yen Phong

Industrial Zones,

© Tourism

In the area, there are many small tourist areas, ach year welcoming tens ofthousands of international and domestic visitors The attractive destinations include:

‘Tam Dao Resort, Nui Coe Lake, Dai Lai Resort, ete, However, the number of tourists,

is limited because of poor infrastructure and lack of tourist advertising

4 Urbanization

As result of economic development and re-allocation of basin territory (aresult of provincial separation between Bae Giang and Bac Ninh, Thai Nguyen andBac Kan, Vinh Phục and Phu Tho), there are now urban areas under the management

of basin provinces, uch as Thai Nguyen city, Song Cong town, Vinh Yen town, BacGiang city, Bac Ninh City, Bac Can town, However, these urban areas are not large

‘with low infrastructure levels, incomplete and poorly functioning water supply

systems As a result the drainage and wastewater treatment systems do not meet the

requirements,

3.4 Current water use for each sector:

+ Water for agriculture: Irrigation water demand for crops is calculated with

probability of 75%

+ Water for livestock:

For cattle: 2008: 30 liter/day/head, for 2010: 50 liter/day/head.

+ Water for industry:

For industrial zones to be constructed: 50-80 mâ/ha/day

For the existing industrial zones, water demand is calculated on basis ofproduct value: heavy industry: 200 m3/US$1,000; light industry: 400m3/US$1000and food industry: 1,000m3/US$1000.

++ Water for urban and rural area: Water demand for domestic uses iscalculated based on population to be supplied with water:

2005 is about 2.076 billion m’, of which the largest water use sector is agriculture, ofabout 1.54 billion mã, which accounts for about 74 % of total water use of the whole

basin Water for industry is 0.173 billion m*; domestic use: 0.163 billion mỸ Water is

supplied from the hydranlie works, rive streams and groundwater

Future water requirements are predicted to grow: by 2010 the amount ofwater required is 2.207 billion mỸ, by 2020 increased to 2.553 billion m*, Water use

in agriculture predicted to be increased, so it will still be the largest water user,accounting for 67% in 2010 and 76% in 2020 of the total water requirements of allsectors, Water for industry and domestic uses were similar for both two periods:accounting for 8.9% and 12.2% 2010; and 9.1% and 12.8% in 2020 respectively

Chapter 4: METHODOLOGY

Using the analysis data about population, development orientation of the riverbasin is known the tendency of water supply and water used in the Cau River Basin,How water supply and use has been impacted by anthropogenic factors Moreover, It

is important to evaluate the trend of agricultural, industrial and domestic waterrequirements in the river basin Therefore, we find the orientation planning of waterresources in the Cau river basin, The contents and the rules, was set out in the law on.water resources and the decree of river basin management, will be concerned andconsider to set-up process and choose the scenario for integrated water resourcesplanning, especially focusing on the allocation of water resources in the Cau riverbasin,

4.1 Conceptual framework

Use of modeling tools in conjunction with scenario analysis as an importantapproach to developing water management strategies and achieve integratedmanagement of water resources Control of the growth in future water demands isessential, although this may be difficult in a developing country like Vietnam.There is a general consensus about integrated water resources planning atcatchment level as the approach to use for sustainable water resourcesmanagement (GWP-TEC, 2009)

With goals have been identified include: (1) build the WEAP modeling to

calculate the water balance in the Cau river basin for current status in 2012 and theperiod from 2013 to 20230; (2) the proposed methodology to plan water resourcesapplied to the Cau river basin On this basis, this study establishes the methodology

to solve planned problem, as the figure 4.1 below:

Figure 4.1: The flow chart of analysis water allocation planning for the Cau

River Basin

4.2 WEAP method

WEAP applications generally include several steps ‘The study definition sets

up the time frame, spatial boundary, system components and configuration of theproblem The Current Accounts, which can be viewed as a calibration step in thedevelopment of an application, provide a snapshot of actual water demand, pollution

loads, resources and supplies for the system Key assumptions may be built into theCurrent Accounts to represent policies, costs and factors that affect demand,pollution, supply and hydrology Scenarios build on the Current Accounts and allowfone to explore the impact of alternative assumptions or policies on future wateravailability and use, Finally, the scenarios are evaluated with regard to watersufficiency, costs and benefits, compatibility with environmental targets, and

se tivity to uncertainty in key variables.

(3) Result: The Results view allows detailed and flexible display of all model

‘outputs, in charts and tables, and on the Schematic

(4) Scenario Explore:

‘You can highlight key data and results in your system for quick viewing

(6) Note:

Note screen provides a space for users to put all the annotations, commentary onthe process of building and calculations with WEAP model.

cr gecrnrite ieee ite esses

4.2.2 Using WEAP model

(1) Require input data:

For any problem, the requirement input data will be different:

The simulation element:

= Simulate river and tributary;

= Simulate water demand for each sector;

= Require about environmental flow;

= Simulate reservoir and others

The simulation clement will be connecting through Transmission Link andRetum Flow,

(2) Simulate study area:

+ Create area;

= Chose years and time steps;

+ Put units for parameters;

+ Doall steps above and then design river network and input data,

(3) Input data for WEAP model:

+ For all tributaries, we will input average flow data (Supply and Resources —>River);

+ For water demand: