Báo cáo nghiên cứu nông nghiệp " Agriculture Sector Research Priorities " docx

 AgricultureSectorResearchPriorities     ResearchPriorityWorkbook          Hanoi:December14:2010 1 Contents 1 Today’sTask 3 2 ResearchPrioritySetting 3 3 IssuesinPrioritySetting 3 3.1 Complexity 3 3.2 CuttingtheCake 5 3.3 GainingConsensus 5 3.4 ResourceAllocation 5 3.5 TheChallengeforAgricultureResearch 5 4 ResearchPrioritySettingMethodology 6 4.1 ChoosingtheMethodology 6 4.2 PrioritySettingFramework 8 5  WorkshopAreasofResearchOpportunity 9 6 ASSESSINGPOTENTIALBENEFITS 11 EconomicBenefits 12 Size 12 Value 13 Exports&Imports 15 Export&ImportofCropProducts 15 ImportandExportofLivestockProducts 18 ImportandExportofFisheriesProducts 19 ImportandExportofForestryProducts 20 AgricultureInputs 20 Fertiliser 20 AnimalFeeds 21 Social& EnvironmentalBenefits 22 EnvironmentalBenefits 23 7 ASSESSINGFACTORSFOR&AGAINSTACHIEVEMENTOFPOTENTIALBENEFITS 25 AdoptionRatesandProfitability 26 AgricultureDevelopmentStrategy 26 8 ASSESSINGRESEARCHPOTENTIAL. 38 Crops 39 Livestock 59 Forestry 68 Fisheries 81 9 ASSESSINGRESEARCHCAPACITY 89 Crops 90 2 Livestock 90 Forestry 93 Fisheries 95    3 1 Today’sTask Objective: To assist MARD to develop mechanisms for determining agriculture research priorities as a basis for investment decisions for high priority opportunities for agriculture research programs and projects across all areas of the agriculture sector. To prepare a draft set of research priorities the agriculture sector using objective and subjective data and information and results of previous priority setting workshops at the subsector level. 2 ResearchPrioritySetting TheprimaryobjectivebehindResearch&Development(R&D 1 )priorityassessmentistodeterminethe broadresearchprogrammesthatwillprovideVietnamwiththegreatestreturnoninvestmentinR&D providedbygovernmentandothermajorstakeholders. Priority se tting is the  central issue of research and extensi on  management.It is a complex task.It mustbedone inasystematicframeworkabletoallowtheresultstosupportopenan drobus tdecisi on‐ makingaboutresearchandextensionresourceallocationandmanagement.The highest priorityR&D isthatwhichhasthehighesteconomic,socialandenvironmentalvaluetothenation . Choices must be made about the Areas Research Opportunity (AROs)to support, and which not to support.If there are no established priorities, then the choi ces made will be unlikel y to produce resultsofmaximum benefittoVietnam.Atworst,theresultswillbeirreleva ntandprovidenoreturn forthepublicinvestmentinvolved. Because priori tysetting is considered verycomplex, it is oftenput inthe “too hard basket”. How to decide the proportion of the available budget to  allocate to agricul tu re sub‐sectors (e.g. Crops, Live stock,Fisheries,Forestry,Environment,Policyetc.)andthenwith ineachsubsectorwhatshouldbe the budget allocation to all the different  crops and p roducts?In many cases (including MARD) decisionsaremadealongbudgetlines.Howmuchwasthebudgetforthepreviousyearandshouldit bemodified?Usuallyadecisionismadetoeithe r increaseordecreasetheproportionofexpenditure by very small amounts and little attention is paid to the likely results or outcomes expected from research expendi t ure.In general the end result is that  there is often duplication in research effort, researchersfocus on whatisalreadyknown,thechallenge andinnovationexpectedfrom researchis absentandthereturnoninvestmentforresearchispoor. 3 IssuesinPrioritySetting 3.1 Complexity The main difficulty in priority setting for agriculture and rural development is that there are many, manyresearchopportunitiestoconsider.Howcancomparisonsbetwee nthemanydifferentcropsor products fr om research be made? One way of resolving this dilemma is to break research priority setting down into manageable pieces,  bydeveloping a research priorityframework and hierarchyof priorities.Figure1providesanexampleofapriorityhierarchy.    1 Developmentincludestechnologydevelopmentandtransferusingtransfermechanismsincludingextension 4 HIERARCHY OF PRIORITIES & RESOURCE ALLOCATION WHOLE OF GOVERNMENT AGRICULTURE &RURAL DEVELOPMENT SERVICESCONSTRUCTION AGRICULTURE & RURAL DEVELOPMENT POLICY RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT QUARANTINE & BIO- SECURITY FINANCE & ADMINISTRATION FOREIGN RELATIONS & TRADE PIGS HORTICULTURE CROPS STAPLE CROPS INDUSTRIAL CROPS LARGE ANIMALS POULTRY FOOD PROCESSING VALUE ADDING LARGE TIMBER OTHER SECTORS ??? FRESH WATER FISH MOLLUSCS MARINE FINFISH CRUSTACEANS LIVESTOCK CROPS NON-WOOD FOREST PRODUCTS FISHERIES FORESTRY SMALL RUMINANTS RICE PULP & SMALL LOGS BAMBOO RATTAN CONSERVATION VACCINES ANIMAL REMEDIES FEEDSTUFFS COLD WATER FISH POST HARVEST & PROCESSING PRIORITY PROGRAMS PRIORITY PROGRAMSPRIORITY PROGRAMS PRIORITY PROGRAMS 5 TheCARDProgramhasworkedwithMARDtodemonstratethemethodol ogyatthesub‐sector(Crops, Live stock,Fisheries,Forestry&Economic&Policy)levels. 3.2 CuttingtheCake Whatproportionofthenationalscienceandtechnologybudgetshouldbeallocatedtoeachofthe foursub‐sectors?Dependingonyourscientificinterestsandexpertiseanumberofscenariosmay beputforward.ThesecouldbedepictedasinFigures1&2below.   3.3 GainingConsensus “Whoisright? ”Whichoneoftheallocationsaboveiscorrect?Doanyofthemreflectthebestoptions for thefuture?Consensusis a major issue asopinions varyof what is priority and what isnot, and biasesand conflictsofinterestcanimpactontherobustnessand quality ofprioritysetting.It isnot possible to get absolute agreement on priori ties, but provided a broad cross ‐section of key stakeholders are involved and contribute individually and collectively to priority setting a consensus canbereached.In mostcasestheconsensusisseenbyallparticipantsasmakingsense withgeneral agreemen t on high and low priorities, but some differences in opinion for the middle range of priorities. 3.4 ResourceAllocation Having determined research priorities, it is assumed that high priority research will receive preferentialfunding.Inmanycountriesthefundingdecisionsfollowthehierarchypriorities.Central governmenthastheresponsibilitytodecidesontheallocationacrossbroadsectorsoftheeconomy (i.e. Agriculture & Rural Development, Construction and Services). Within sectors  the Ministry responsible has the mandate to make decisions about the resourcing of sub‐sector and thematic research areas. Within sub‐sectors Departments of Science & Technology have r esponsibility for allocation of resources. The overallaim of asystematic process is toimprove the economic, social andenvironmentalreturnon governmentinvestmentinresearch. 3.5 TheChallengeforAgricultureResearch OverthelastfewyearsthecontributionofagriculturetotheGDPhasdeclinedinrelativeterms. Figure2: PercentageofGDPbySector(1994prices) 23.3 20.4 17.6 35.4 39.4 41.6 41.3 40.3 40.8 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2000 2004 2008 Trade and Services Industry and Construction Extended Agriculture  6 This assessment probably underestimates the contribution of the agriculture sector as the proportion of the population in rural areas is >65% and much of this is of a subsistence nature, contributinginaninformalwayandrepresentsahighproportionofthepoor. Figure3: Urban:RuralPovertyRates 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 Urban Rural  Note:PovertylinefromGSOandWB:1998:expenditure/per/month:149kVND;2002:expenditure/per/month: 160k VND; 2004: expenditure/per/month: 173k VND; 2006: expenditure/per/month: 213k VND; 2008: expenditure/per/month:280kVND Thechallengefor agricultureresearchis to ensurethatagriculture’scontributiontoGDPisat least maintained, if  not impr oved, and that it contributes to social and environmental indicators. This challengewillbeeasiertoachieveifahighproportionoftheresourcesavailableforresearchtarget highpriorityareas. 4 ResearchPrioritySettingMethodology 4.1 ChoosingtheMethodology 2  There is a range of methodologies available for R & D priority setting.Selection of the most appropriatemethodologyforVietnamisdrivenby: 1. The need to use a consultation  process that involves a large number and diverse range of stakeholders; 2. The need to develop ownership of priorities amongst  MARD and research institute staff, farmers,exporters,processorsandmarketers. 3. The absence ofdetailedandreliablestatistical data onproduction, profitability,andmarkets and the absence of analysis of the impact of research on national, regional and household GDP; 4. TheneedtomovefromR&Dfocussed onproductionandsubsistence/foodsecuritytoR&D emphasising an empowering policy environment to generate improved agriculture sustainability,profitability,q uality,ma rke tingandcommercialsystems; 5. The need to use an objective process that evaluates the likely economic, social and environmentalbenefitstoVietnam; 6. Thecapacitytoundertakeappr opriateresearch.  An important principle is to implement the process and learn from experience, doing what make senseratherthanworryingaboutacademicperfection. Specificprinciplesaboutprioritysettinginclude:   2 CSIROAustraliahasappliedthebasicmodeldescribedhereatcorporateanddivisionlevelsandithasbee nusedinmorethan 60otherresearchorganisationsinAsi a,AustraliaandNew Zealand,USAandEurope.Theconceptualanal yticframeworkis  basedontheonepublishedbythe IndustrialResear c hInstitute,New York in1986,viz:RNFoster,LHL i nden ,RLWhiteleyand AMKantrow,ImprovingthereturnonR&D ‐I,in 'MeasuringandImprovingthePerformanceandRe tu rnonR&D',IRI, New York(originallypublis he dinResearchManageme nt,January1985).  7 • Consider areas that are easily related to the benefits from research (the purpose of the research) not research disciplines – in this case defined as Areas of Research Opportunity (ARO) • These areas should be mutually ex clusive and collectively exhaustive, co nsistently based, forwardlookingandmanageableinnumber • Linked toandconsistentwiththeresearchfinancingtheprocess • Criteriaareindependent • Thecriteriausedshouldconsider: o The potential economic, environmental, social, institutional and scientific benefitsfromsuccessfulresearch o Thecontextwithinwhichresearchproductsandserviceswillbeused o The state of development of  required research tools and techniques and the healthofappropriatedisciplines o Theavailabilityofresearchskillsandinfrastructure • Importantly, priorities are relative; the lower the priority of an area the greater the selectivityinchoosingprojectswithinthem,asillustratedinFigure2.  Themodelrecommendedforuse inVie tnamisasi x‐stepprocess.  1. DefinebroadAreasofResea r chOpportunity(AROs)atthesub‐sectorlevel 2. PrioritiseAROsatthesub‐sectorlevel 3. Prioritisecrops/produc tswithinAROsatthesu b‐sectorlevel 4. From theresults of the sub ‐sector prioritisa tionestablishprioritiesat thesectorlevel (thesemay  combinesomeofthesub‐sectorlevelprioritiesintoalargergrouping. 5. UndertakeSectorlevelresearchprioritisation 6. Prepareworkshoprepo rtsandaNationalR&DInvestmentPortfolioandPolicyStat ement Figure2:UseofPrioritiestoAssistinSelection ofResearchPrograms/Projects  S t ro n g E m p h a s i s ATTRACTIVENESS FEASIBILITY S t r o n g E m p h a s i s Selective Emphasis Limit e d Support I NCREASED SELE C T I VI TY InthepasttheresearchanddevelopmentprogramisdrivenbyMARDstaffusinganallocativeprocess. ItispossibleinthefutureMARDtofundresearchunderanopenandcontestableprocesswithoutbias. The aim  is to improve the efficiency and effectivenessof investment into research and todevelop  a researchenvironmentthatencouragesahighdegree ofinnovation.UnderthisprocessMARDwould clarifytheprioritiesforresearchinvestmentanddefinethebroadoutcomesexpectedthatinvestmen t. Theresearchproviderswillsubmitresearchproposalsandbudgetsthatwillcontributetoachievement of these outcomes.In a “perfect world” those projects that offer the best valu e for money will be supported. 8 4.2 PrioritySettingFramework The model used to form Research priorities is relatively simple.It asks participants  to evaluate the overall merit of Research investment in  each ARO, in terms of Attractiveness to Vietnam and  its Feasibility in Vietnam.A scoring scheme is used to compare and rank the AROs. Scoring is an effective waytoallow a grouptotake all factorscriticaltothedecision intoaccount inalogicaland openway.Therelative scoresforeachAROaredevelopedinstructuredgroupdiscussionsintermsof fourindependentcriteria.Theseare: 1. PotentialBenefitsforVietnam 2. FactorsWorkingFor& Agai nstAchievementof Potentials 3. PotentialContributionofR&DtoDevelopme nt 4. R&DCapacityWithi nVietnam Thecriteriaaredefinedasfollows: Potentialimpact • PotentialBenefits • maximumadditionalbenefitsforVietnam(economic,environmental,social) fromsuccessfulresearch • FactorsWorkingForandAgainstAchievementof Potentials • likelihoodoftheresultsofsuccessfulresearchbeingutilizedbyVietnam Feasibility • PotentialContributionofResearchtoDevelopment • scope for growth in knowledge in the relevant scientific fields and improvementsinresearchtoolsandtechniques • Researchcapacity • Vietnam’s ability to competitively assemble research teams to  deliver researchoutputstousers Therelationshipbetweenthesefourcriteriaisshowninthea ssessmentframeworkbelow.  The relative rankings and positions of the AROs are important.They indicate the best “areas” for research and/or extension investment.When the priority‐setting group represen ts researche rs , extension workers  an d academics, farmers, politicians an d  the agri cultural  indu stry and other stakeholders,themethodologyensuresthatthe bestrecommendationspossibleatth e timearemade. Anexampleoftheoutcomeoftheprioritysettingprocess Figure3. Plotof attractivenessversus feasibilityfor ahypothetical set of eight AROsshowingtheir priorityratingonthebasisoftheirreturntoVietnam. 9 RETURN FROM R&D FOR EACH AREA OF RESEARCH OPPORTUNITY Feasibility Attractiveness 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 102030405060708090100 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8  InFigure1,twoAROs(#1and#8)scorethehighestforbothattractivenessandfeasibility.Theyarelocatedin thetop right hand corner ofthe graph.They warrant strong research and extension emphasis, and are the highest priority groupof AROs.Thoselocatedmore towards the centre ofthegraph (# 3, # 5,# 6 and # 7) warrantselectiveresearchandextensionemphasisandcanbeclassedasmoderatepriority.Thetwowithlow scoresforbothattractivenessandfeasibility(#2and#4)justifyonlylimitedsupportandhavealowpriority. AROs  # 3 and # 5 have similar attractiveness scores, but ARO # 5 scores higher on feasibility.In this hypotheticalexamplethelowerfeasibilityscoreforARO#3occursbecausetheskillsavailabletocarryoutthe researchandorextensionareconsideredtobeinadequate.Whenthenecessary skillsareacquired,thetwo AROs would otherwise be equal claimants for research resources.Attractiveness is determined by factors otherthanresearchandextension,suchasmarkets,profits,employment,socialandculturalbenefits,sowhile AROs#5and#7havesimilarfeasibilityscores,#5ismoreattractive,andcouldbeallocatedmoreresources forresearchandextension. 5 WorkshopAreasofResearchOpportunity FordemonstrationpurposesfourAROsareselected.Theyare: 1 Crops (or Cultivation) including:Rice, Upland Crops, Legumes, Industrial Crops, Fruit,  Vegetables,Flowers&Ornamentals,AnimalFeedsandNewCrops 2 Livestock including: Large Animals, Small Ruminant Animals, Pig Production, Poultry, ProductiveInsects,VeterinaryVaccines&AnimalRemedies,andAnimalFeed Processing &Conservation 3 Forestry including: Large Timber Production, Pulp and Small Log Products, Bamboo and Rattan, Non Timber Forest Products, Bio‐diversity an d Conservation, Environment andServices,andForestPolicy 4 Fisheries including: Marine Finfish, Cold Water Fish, Crustaceans, Molluscs, Fresh Water Fish, Post‐Harvest, Processing & Value Adding, Extraction of Bio‐Active Compounds, ResourceManagement&Conservation,andMechanisation [...]... Consider the following analysis of the four sectors.  Size  Contribution to Agricultural Output (Percentage at current prices)    Gross Output by Sector (1994 prices)    12    Value  Gross Output for Cultivation/Crops Sector (Billion VND 1994 prices)    Gross Output for Fisheries Sector (Billion VND 1994 prices)    Gross Output for Forestry Sector (Billion VND, 1994 prices)  13    Gross Output for the Livestock Sector (Billion VND 1994 prices) ... The value adding sector – manufacturing, processing, packaging, exporting, quality  assurance  • The transport sector – freight, shipping etc.  Of the four sub‐sectors, what will the greatest opportunities for future employment be?  Environmental Benefits  Think about the positive and negative environmental impacts of each of the broad subsectors? For  some sub‐sectors (e.g. catfish and use of agriculture chemicals, pesticides etc) the environmental ... the gross output by agriculture sector provides an indication of the adoption trends, with cultivation  and forestry declining and livestock  Gross output of Agriculture by sector (1994 price)  and especially aquaculture  100% (fisheries), increasing. This broad  15.89 90% 21.63 24.23 data masks some changes that are  4.31 80% 3.53 3.23 13.50 occurring within each of the  70% fishing 14.58 15.40 subsectors and raises the issue of ... from  research project  management  to  S&T  output  based  contract.  Increasing  the  proportion  of  investment  budget for research and technology transfer in agriculture at the rate equivalent to the  average  level  of  advanced  countries  in  the  region.  Create  groundbreaking  change  in  research and  S&T  application;  increase  the  contribution  percentage  of  S&T  and  management of agriculture sector to over 50%. ... an increase in the areas of fruit and vegetables within the crops subsector. The fisheries subsector is  characterised by a rapid increase in land areas used for aquaculture with the contribution of  fisheries capture decreasing and the contribution of aquaculture showing remarkable growth.   Agriculture Development Strategy  MARD: Development Strategy for agriculture and rural development, 2011‐ 2020 (Enclosed with ... Since  2000,  growth  of  agriculture production  averaged  5.5%  per  year.  Recently,  although  the  agricultural land has decreased by about 70,000 ha per year and over 100 thousand employees have  left  agriculture and  the  social  investment  has  reduced  and  natural  disasters  and  diseases  have  become  more  prevalent,  the  agriculture,   forestry  and  fisheries  sectors  have  maintained ... variety  applied  in  27  agriculture production.  The  advanced  cultivation  process,  the  "3   down,  3  up”  program,  sustainable farming, IPM ICM, GAP production process have been applied.  • In  the  animal  subsector,  use  of  new  breeds  leads  to  improved  yield,  quality  of  meat,  eggs  and milk.Weight per hog marketed increased by 30 kg per head.   • In the fisheries subsector, a number of aquatic species of high economic value have been put ... Livestock  Development  to  2020,  Department  of  Livestock  Production  (2007,  2009)  Social & Environmental Benefits  Employment  The agriculture sector is the largest in terms of labour force.  2009  (persons.)  23022  1766.5  477.4  6851.2  262.6  2692.8  5275.7  Sector Agriculture and forestry  Fishing  Mining and quarrying  Manufacturing  Electricity, gas and water supply  Construction  Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles, motor cycles and personal and ... management of agriculture sector to over 50%.  • Merge  the  existing  research institutes  and  agricultural  universities  in  Hanoi  and  HCM  cities into two research and education centers in order to effective exploit facilities and  staff resource.  • On the major areas of agricultural production in each ecological region the S&T clusters  linked between regional universities and research institutes will also to be built in order ... Wood exports(furniture) have grownrapidly but most of the raw materials are still imported.  Causes of problems  Investment in agriculture and rural development is low  • From 1997 ‐ 2006, the proportion of public expenditure for agriculture accounts for only 5‐ 6% of the total state budget, it is much lower than the average of 20% of countries in the  region  (Korea,  Malaysia,  the  Philippines).  In  2007,  investment  in  agriculture accounts  for  15%  of  the  total  . determining agriculture research priorities as a basis for investment decisions for high priority opportunities for agriculture research programs and projects across all areas of the agriculture sector. .  Agriculture Sector Research Priorities     Research PriorityWorkbook          Hanoi:December14:2010 1 Contents 1 Today’sTask 3 2 Research PrioritySetting. draft set of research priorities the agriculture sector using objective and subjective data and information and results of previous priority setting workshops at the subsector level. 2 Research PrioritySetting Theprimaryobjectivebehind Research &Development(R&D 1 )priorityassessmentistodeterminethe broad research programmesthatwillprovideVietnamwiththegreatestreturnoninvestmentinR&D providedbygovernmentandothermajorstakeholders. Priority