TÁC ĐỘNG BẤT CÂN XỨNG CỦA NỢ CÔNG ĐẾN TĂNG TRƯỞNG KINH TẾ - BẰNG CHỨNG THỰC NGHIỆM TỪ VIỆT NAM

TÁC ĐỘNG BẤT CÂN XỨNG CỦA NỢ CÔNG ĐẾN TĂNG TRƯỞNG KINH TẾ BẰNG CHỨNG THỰC NGHIỆM TỪ VIỆT NAM.TÁC ĐỘNG BẤT CÂN XỨNG CỦA NỢ CÔNG ĐẾN TĂNG TRƯỞNG KINH TẾ BẰNG CHỨNG THỰC NGHIỆM TỪ VIỆT NAM.TÁC ĐỘNG BẤT CÂN XỨNG CỦA NỢ CÔNG ĐẾN TĂNG TRƯỞNG KINH TẾ BẰNG CHỨNG THỰC NGHIỆM TỪ VIỆT NAM.TÁC ĐỘNG BẤT CÂN XỨNG CỦA NỢ CÔNG ĐẾN TĂNG TRƯỞNG KINH TẾ BẰNG CHỨNG THỰC NGHIỆM TỪ VIỆT NAM.TÁC ĐỘNG BẤT CÂN XỨNG CỦA NỢ CÔNG ĐẾN TĂNG TRƯỞNG KINH TẾ BẰNG CHỨNG THỰC NGHIỆM TỪ VIỆT NAM.TÁC ĐỘNG BẤT CÂN XỨNG CỦA NỢ CÔNG ĐẾN TĂNG TRƯỞNG KINH TẾ BẰNG CHỨNG THỰC NGHIỆM TỪ VIỆT NAM.TÁC ĐỘNG BẤT CÂN XỨNG CỦA NỢ CÔNG ĐẾN TĂNG TRƯỞNG KINH TẾ BẰNG CHỨNG THỰC NGHIỆM TỪ VIỆT NAM.TÁC ĐỘNG BẤT CÂN XỨNG CỦA NỢ CÔNG ĐẾN TĂNG TRƯỞNG KINH TẾ BẰNG CHỨNG THỰC NGHIỆM TỪ VIỆT NAM.TÁC ĐỘNG BẤT CÂN XỨNG CỦA NỢ CÔNG ĐẾN TĂNG TRƯỞNG KINH TẾ BẰNG CHỨNG THỰC NGHIỆM TỪ VIỆT NAM.TÁC ĐỘNG BẤT CÂN XỨNG CỦA NỢ CÔNG ĐẾN TĂNG TRƯỞNG KINH TẾ BẰNG CHỨNG THỰC NGHIỆM TỪ VIỆT NAM.TÁC ĐỘNG BẤT CÂN XỨNG CỦA NỢ CÔNG ĐẾN TĂNG TRƯỞNG KINH TẾ BẰNG CHỨNG THỰC NGHIỆM TỪ VIỆT NAM.TÁC ĐỘNG BẤT CÂN XỨNG CỦA NỢ CÔNG ĐẾN TĂNG TRƯỞNG KINH TẾ BẰNG CHỨNG THỰC NGHIỆM TỪ VIỆT NAM.TÁC ĐỘNG BẤT CÂN XỨNG CỦA NỢ CÔNG ĐẾN TĂNG TRƯỞNG KINH TẾ BẰNG CHỨNG THỰC NGHIỆM TỪ VIỆT NAM.TÁC ĐỘNG BẤT CÂN XỨNG CỦA NỢ CÔNG ĐẾN TĂNG TRƯỞNG KINH TẾ BẰNG CHỨNG THỰC NGHIỆM TỪ VIỆT NAM.TÁC ĐỘNG BẤT CÂN XỨNG CỦA NỢ CÔNG ĐẾN TĂNG TRƯỞNG KINH TẾ BẰNG CHỨNG THỰC NGHIỆM TỪ VIỆT NAM.TÁC ĐỘNG BẤT CÂN XỨNG CỦA NỢ CÔNG ĐẾN TĂNG TRƯỞNG KINH TẾ BẰNG CHỨNG THỰC NGHIỆM TỪ VIỆT NAM.TÁC ĐỘNG BẤT CÂN XỨNG CỦA NỢ CÔNG ĐẾN TĂNG TRƯỞNG KINH TẾ BẰNG CHỨNG THỰC NGHIỆM TỪ VIỆT NAM.TÁC ĐỘNG BẤT CÂN XỨNG CỦA NỢ CÔNG ĐẾN TĂNG TRƯỞNG KINH TẾ BẰNG CHỨNG THỰC NGHIỆM TỪ VIỆT NAM.TÁC ĐỘNG BẤT CÂN XỨNG CỦA NỢ CÔNG ĐẾN TĂNG TRƯỞNG KINH TẾ BẰNG CHỨNG THỰC NGHIỆM TỪ VIỆT NAM.

MINISTRY OF EDUCATIONANDTRAINING THE STATE BANK OF VIETNAM HOCHIMINH UNIVERSITY OFBANKING NGUYEN XUAN DUNG ASYMMETRIC IMPACT OF PUBLIC DEBT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH – EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM VIETNAM DOCTORAL DISSERTATION OF FINANCE AND BANKING HO CHI MINH CITY - 2023 1- MINISTRY OF EDUCATIONANDTRAINING THE STATE BANK OF VIETNAM HOCHIMINH UNIVERSITY OFBANKING NGUYEN XUAN DUNG ASYMMETRIC IMPACT OF PUBLIC DEBT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH - EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM VIETNAM DOCTORAL DISSERTATION OF FINANCE AND BANKING Major: Finance BankingCODE:9 PhD Supervisor : Assoc Prof., Dr.Nguyen Duc Trung HO CHI MINH CITY - 2023 DECLARATION OF ORIGINALITY I am Nguyen Xuan Dung, PhD student of Course 23, Academic Year 2019 2022, hereby declare that the research work is entirely my own original work under the guidance and supervision of Assoc Prof., Dr.Nguyen Duc Trung I affirm that this work has not been previously submitted to any other institution or organization for any academic or professional qualification I acknowledge and properly cite all the sources used in this work, ensuring that all information, data, and materials are accurate, reliable, and appropriately referenced I take full responsibility for the authenticity, originality, and integrity of the content presented in this work Ho Chi Minh City, day monthy e a r Author ACKNOWLEDGMENT I would like to express my deepest gratitude to the individuals and institutions who have played a crucial role in the completion of this doctoral thesis First and foremost, my sincere appreciation goes to my esteemed supervisor, Assoc Prof., Dr.Nguyen Duc Trung, for his unwavering guidance, exceptional mentorship, and valuable insights throughout this research journey His expertise and dedication have been invaluable in shaping the trajectory and quality of thisstudy I am immensely grateful to the members of my doctoral committee for their invaluable feedback, constructive criticism, and rigorous evaluation Their scholarly contributions have significantly enhanced the intellectual rigor and academic merit of this thesis I would like to extend my heartfelt thanks to the faculty and staff of Postgraduate Education of Ho Chi Minh University of Banking for providingaconducive academic environment, access to resources, and opportunities for intellectual growth Their support has been instrumental in the successful completion of thisresearch Lastly, I wish to acknowledge the contributions of the countless researchers, scholars, and authors whose works have paved the way for this study Their groundbreaking research and seminal publications have provided the foundation upon which this thesis is built Ho Chi Minh City, day monthy e a r Author SUMMARY OF THESIS The thesis explores the relationship between fiscal policy, public debt, and economic growth in the context of Vietnam It delves into the different approaches to fiscal policy adopted by developed and developing nations, highlighting countercyclical policies in developed countries and procyclical policies in developing nations The primary aim of the study is to assess the impact of public debt on economic growth in Vietnam, analyzing the determinants of fiscal policy and their influence on economic outcomes Using quarterly data from 2000 to 2021, the researchers employ regression models to examine the effects of fiscal policy decisions on Vietnam's economic performance The study's significance lies in its application of theoretical foundations to the specific context of Vietnam, providing empirical evidence to inform policy development related to public debt management The study yields several noteworthy results First, it confirms the prevailing pattern of procyclical fiscal policy in Vietnam, with increased government spending during economic upswings and reduced spending during downturns This cyclicality can pose challenges to sustainable economic growth, as fiscal policy is not effectively counteracting economic fluctuations Second, the analysis reveals a non-linear relationship between public debt and economic growth in Vietnam While a moderate level of debt can be conducive to economic expansion, excessively high levels of debt can hamper growth and stability Therefore, it is crucial to identify the threshold at which increasing debt levels become detrimental to economic performance Third, the study uncovers specific determinants of fiscal policy that significantly influence economic outcomes in Vietnam These determinants include government revenue, expenditure, and borrowing The findings suggest that policymakers should focus on optimizing these factors to achieve sustainable economic growth and prudent debt management Building on these results, the content proposes new avenues for research One potential area of investigation is the exploration of alternative fiscal policy frameworksthatcouldbetteralignwithVietnam'seconomiccontext.Forexample , the study suggests examining the feasibility and effectiveness of adopting a more countercyclical fiscal policy approach in Vietnam to mitigate the negative impacts of economic fluctuations and promote stability Furthermore, the content emphasizes the importance of assessing the quality and composition of public expenditure It suggests investigating the allocation of government spending in sectors such as infrastructure, education, and healthcare, to ensure that public resources are utilized efficiently and effectively Such research could shed light on the areas where targeted investments can yield the greatest economic returns and long-term development benefits In terms of policy recommendations, the study highlights the need for prudent debt management in Vietnam It emphasizes the importance of implementing fiscal reforms that aim to maintain a sustainable debtto-GDP ratio This can be achieved through measures such as enhancing revenue collection, improving expenditure efficiency, and exploring innovative financing mechanisms Additionally, the study underscores the significance of strengthening fiscal institutions and governance frameworks Transparent and accountable public financial management systems can help minimize the risks associated with public debt accumulation, ensure effective utilization of resources, and enhance investor confidence in Vietnam's economy The study also suggests the establishment of a comprehensive debt monitoring mechanism to regularly assess and manage public debt levels This mechanism should consider both quantitative and qualitative factors, taking into account the potential risks and implications of debt accumulation on economic stability andgrowth In conclusion, the thesis provides detailed insights into the relationship between fiscal policy, public debt, and economic growth in Vietnam It highlights the importance of adopting appropriate fiscal policy frameworks, managing public debt prudently, and optimizing government expenditure to achieve sustainable economic development The study's results, along with the proposed areas for further research and policy recommendations, offer valuable guidance for policymakers in Vietnam as they navigate the complex dynamics of fiscal policy and debtmanagement TABLE OF CONTENT CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION OFTHERESEARCH .1 1.1 THE RATIONALEOFRESEARCH 1.2 RESEARCHOBJECTIVES 1.3 OBJECTS,SCOPEANDMETHODOLOGYOFTHERESEARCH .7 1.4 THESIGNIFICANEANDCONTRIBUTIONSOFTHERESEARCH .8 1.5 RESEARCHCONTENTS CHAPTER 2: THEORIES ANDLITERATUREREVIEW .11 2.1 THEORIESOFFISCALPOLICYANDBUSINESSCYCLE 11 2.1.1 Concepts relevant to theresearchproblems 11 2.1.2 Theories of Fiscal Policy andBusiness Cycle 13 2.2 THEORETICALOFPUBLICDEBTANDECONOMICGROWTH 16 2.2.1 Theories ofPublicdebt 16 2.2.2 Classical theories of public debt andeconomicgrowth 17 2.2.3 Neoclassical theories of public debt andeconomicgrowth 21 2.2.4 Modern monetary policy on the relationship between public debt andeconomicgrowth 24 2.2.5 Theories of the linear impact of public debt oneconomicgrowth 26 2.2.6 Theories of nonlinear effects of public debt oneconomicgrowth 29 2.3 RELEVANT EMPIRICAL STUDIES ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEENFISCALPOLICYANDTHEBUSINESSCYCLE 30 2.3.1 Literature review of procyclicalfiscalpolicy 30 2.3.2 Literature review of the countercyclicalfiscalpolicy 39 2.3.3 Literature review of representative variables for the economic cycleand fiscalpolicy 41 2.4 LITERATURE REVIEW BETWEEN PUBLIC DEBT AND ECONOMICGROWTH 43 2.4.1 Literature review of the negative impact of public debt oneconomic growth 43 2.4.2 Literature review of the positive impact of public debt oneconomic growth 48 2.4.3 Literature review of the neutral effect of public debt oneconomicgrowth .51 2.4.4 Literature review of nonlinear effects of public debt oneconomicgrowth .52 2.5 THEBASISOFDESIGNINGEMPIRICALRESEARCHMODEL .65 CHAPTER 3:RESEARCHMETHODOLOGY 71 3.1 RESEARCHMODEL 71 3.1.1 VECMmodel 71 3.1.2 NARDLmodel 75 3.2 VARIABLES DESCRIPTIONS OFTHERESEARCHMODEL 79 3.2.1 The variables of the model of the relationship between fiscal policyand thebusinesscycle 79 3.2.2 The variables of the model of public debt oneconomicgrowth 80 3.3 RESEARCHDATA .80 3.3.1 Research data of the model of the relationship between fiscal policyand thebusinesscycle 80 3.3.2 Research data of the model of public debt oneconomicgrowth .82 CHAPTER 4: RESEARCH RESULTSANDDISCUSSION 84 4.1 EXAMININGTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENFISCALPOLICYAND THEBUSINESSCYCLE 84 4.1.1 Tests of theresearchmodel 84 4.1.2 Results of testing the relationship between fiscal policy andeconomic growth 88 4.2 EXAMINING THE IMPACT OF PUBLIC DEBT ON ECONOMICGROWTH 92 4.2.1 Tests of theresearchmodel 92 4.2.2 Researchresults 98 CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION ANDPOLICYIMPLICATIONS 107 5.1 CONCLUSION 107 5.2 POLICYIMPLICATIONS 109 5.3 LIMITATIONS OFTHERESEARCH 113 SUMMARY 114 REFERENCES 115 APPENDIX EXAMINING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FISCAL POLICY AND THEBUSINESSCYCLE 135 APPENDIX1:STATIONARYTESTOFDATASERIES 135 APPENDIX 2:COINTERGRATIONTEST 143 APPENDIX 3:CAUSALITYTEST 144 APPENDIX4:LAGORDERSELECTIONCRITERIA 145 APPENDIX5:THESTABILITYTESTOFTHEMODEL 146 APPENDIX 6:THEVECM 148 APPENDIX 7: IMPULSERESPONSEFUNCTION 149 APPENDIX8:VARIANCEDECOMPOSTION 150 APPENDIX EXAMINING THE IMPACT OF PUBLIC DEBT ON ECONOMICGROWTH 151 APPENDIX 1: UNITROOTTEST 151 APPENDIX 2:DATADESCRIPTION 161 APPENDIX 3: THEECRTEST 162 APPENDIX 4: THENARDLMODEL 163 APPENDIX 5: THEBREUSCHTEST 164 APPENDIX6:THELONGRUNANDBOUNDSTEST 165 APPENDIX 7: THERAMSEYTEST 166 APPENDIX 8: THEWALDTEST 167 APPENDIX9:PLOTOFCUMULATIVESUMOFRESIDUALSCUSUM .168 APPENDIX 10: PLOT OF THE CUMULATIVE SUM OF SQUARES OFRECURSIVERESIDUALS(CUSUMSQ) 169 APPENDIX 11: PLOT OF ASYMMETRIC CUMULATIVE DYNAMICMULTIPLIER .170