The subregional economic integration and the economic transition the case study of the greater mekong subregion (gms) and the economic transition in vietnam m a

The Subregional Economic Integration and the Economic Transition: the case study of the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) and the Economic Transition in Vietnam By Tran Thi Le Dung A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Arts (International Relations) Faculty of Political Science, Thammasat University September 2010 The Subregional Economic Integration and the Economic Transition: the case study of the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) and the Economic Transition in Vietnam By Tran Thi Le Dung A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Arts (International Relations) Faculty of Political Science, Thammasat University September 2010 ABSTRACT After the Cold War, the world has entered a new phase in history: the phase of cooperation and integration However, the former centrally planned economies find it hard to fully integrate into the world’s economy due to their unreadiness And the emergence of subregionalism has facilitated the process of economic integration of transitional economies The main objective of this paper is to explore the contribution of the sub-regional scheme in assisting members to integrate into the regional and multilateral markets The case studies of the Greater Mekong Sub-region and Vietnamese economy can be considered as a noteworthy example of the impact of the sub-regional cooperation on the economic transition of a country Qualitative methodology is employed including documentary research and in-depth interviews The East West Economic Corridor (EWEC) is used as the artery to analyze its direct and indirect impacts on two selected nodes along the EWEC, namely junction node: Lao Bao International Border Gate (Quang Tri Province) and gate way node: International Seaport of Da Nang (Da Nang City) The role of the GMS program towards to economic transition in Vietnam was investigated under two main aspects: the relationship between the central government and the local government, and the participation of the private sector In conclusion, the GMS program, particularly the EWEC, has played the catalytic role in assisting Vietnam to develop its economy towards a more market one The implementation of the EWEC initiative has facilitated the Vietnamese government to pilot and adjust the legal framework concerning to cross-border movements, trade facilitation and economic development, to improve infrastructure systems and investment environment serving the economic development, and to change the administrative practices The GMS program is a testing ground for Vietnam to apply new regulations, policies and learn to harmonize with other countries before fully integrating into the regional as well as the world economy [2] ACKNOWLEGEMENT It is a pleasure to thank those who made this thesis possible I am heartily thankful to my adviser, Assoc Prof Dr Siriporn Wajjwalku, whose encouragement, guidance and support from the initial to the final level enabled me to develop an understanding of the topic I own my deep gratitude to Assoc Prof Dr Kajit Jittasevi, who has made available his support in a number of ways In addition, I would like to thank Asst Prof Dr Kanokwan Manorom for her recommendations of the two interesting books about the transition in Lao PDR and her sharp comments on the thesis Furthermore, I would like to express my thanks to all the staff of the MIR office for helping me continuously at the very beginning Moreover, I would like to thank the officials of the organizations and people concerned, in Vietnam, who were generous in granting me interviews and providing crucial data My thanks also goes to Sean Meadows, who helped me check grammar of my thesis And most importantly, I would to also thank my family and my husband for cheering and inspiring me Lastly, I offer my regards and blessings to all of those who supported me in any respect during the completion of the project [3] CONTENTS Chapter Introduction 1.1 Significance of the problem 1.2 Questions for research and objectives for research 1.2.1 Questions for research 1.2.2 Research objectives 1.3 Main argument and hypothesis 1.4 Research methodology and scope 1.4.1 Methodology 1.4.2 Scope 1.5 Conceptual framework 1.6 Literature review 14 1.6.1 The evolution of the gms economic cooperation and the economic cooperation within the gms framework 14 1.6.2 The socialist market-oriented economy and the economic integration of vietnam 18 Chapter Vietnam’s economic transition process from centrally planned economy to socialist market-oriented economy 22 2.1 The 1954-1975 economy 22 2.1.1 Industrialization 22 2.1.2 Trade and investment 29 2.1.3 Structure of labor force 33 2.2 The centrally planned subsidized economy (1975-1986) 35 2.2.1 Centrally controlled economy 35 2.2.2 Industrialization 38 2.2.3 Trade and investment 42 2.3 Socialist market economy (1986 – now) 44 2.3.1 Factors contributed to the economic reform 44 [4] 2.3.2 Economic liberalization 47 2.3.3 Industrialization and modernization 50 2.3.4 Trade and investment 52 Chapter Subregional economic cooperation in southeast asia and the needs to cooperate: the greater mekong subregion and vietnam 61 3.1 Subregional economic integration in southeast asia: 62 3.1.1 Subregionalism: aims and mechanisms 62 3.1.2 The emergence of subregional integration in southeast asia 65 3.2 Vietnam and the greater mekong subregion 66 3.2.1 Vietnam and the needs to integrate into the mekong subregion 67 3.2.2 The greater mekong subregion – a solution for the puzzle 70 Chapter The catalytic role of the GMS program to the process of economic transition in vietnam 75 4.1 The interaction between the central and local governments in implementation the ewec initiated by the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) 77 4.1.1 Description of vietnam’s nodes and administration structure 77 4.1.2 The response to GMS scheme on infrastructure development of the EWEC 80 4.1.3 The development of the special border zone, the seaport, and software harmonization 84 4.1.4 Development challenges 95 4.1.5 Human resource development 99 4.2 Participation of the private sector 101 4.3 Conlusion 107 Chapter Conclusion and challenges 109 5.1 Conlusion 109 5.2 Challenges of the research 113 [5] Appendix 115 Bibliography 117 [6] LIST OF TABLES Table 1: GDP and sectoral growth during 1977-1979 (percent) 37 Table 2: Targets and actual performance for selected economic indicators of second Five-YearPlan 39 Table 3: Contribution of state and private sectors in total retailing turnover (%), 1976-1985 43 Table 4: Export-import during the pre-Doi Moi period 44 Table 5: Some major economic indicators, 1991 – 2009 49 Table 6: Economic structure from 1990-2008 (percent) 51 Table 7: Main milestones of legal reform in Vietnam under Doi Moi policy 54 Table 8: Milestone of Vietnam's economy integration 55 Table 9: FDI investment projects licensed in period 1998-2008 56 Table 10: Index of export and import of goods 57 Table 11: Means of transport in Quang Tri province, 2001 -2008 (Road way) 84 Table 13: Main indicator for Trading Across Borders, GMS 91 Table 12: Foreign Direct Investment projects licensed in Da Nang, 2000 – 2008 (Thous Dollar) 94 Table 14: Number of establishment in transportation (road, inland water ways and maritime transport) of Da Nang City, 2003-2007 105 [7] LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Vietnam's Gross Domestic Growth Rate (1975-1986) (1990 constant price, percent) Figure 2: US economic assistance to South Vietnam by fiscal year, 1955-1975 (million dollar)26 Figure 3: Industrial development index from 1962 to 1973 (percent) 28 Figure 4: Proportion of industrial activities in the total industrial output value of RVN in 1973 29 Figure 5: Index of import and export turnover of the Republic of Vietnam, 1956-1975 (Million Dollar 32 Figure 6: Students in Universities in the South Vietnam, 1954-1972 (in thousands) 34 Figure 7: Industrial growth: 1977 - 1985 (1982 price, percent) 41 Figure 8: Industrial output value at current prices by ownership (1996-2007) 50 Figure 9: Share of intra-regional trade to total trade of Vietnam (1992-1997) 68 Figure 10: Total capacity of major ports in Vietnam, 1998 79 Figure 11: Administrative structure of Vietnam, based on the 1992 Constitution 80 Figure 12: Volume of freight implemented of Da Nang Port (thousand tons) 88 Figure 13: The share of SOEs and private enterprises in IZs in Da Nang 104 [8] LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS EWEC: East West Economic Corridor FDI: Foreign Direct Investment GMS: Greater Mekong Subregion IZ: Industrial zone LB-SECA: Lao Bao Sepecial Economic and Commercial Area SBZ: Special border zone SOE: State owned enterprises [9] 110 with the other countries’ Moreover, investment laws and procedures are adjusted to adapt to the new situation once the country’s infrastructure is adequate enough to welcome the investors The laws and procedures must be amended toward more favorable for private and foreign investors In this sense, the country is moving toward a multi-sector economy, creating a level playing ground for private and foreign sectors that used to be discriminated in centrally planned economy Subregional integration not only helps transitional economies accelerate the process of economic transition but also paves the way for these countries to integrate into regional and multilateral economies by enhancing the inter-relationships among countries Particularly, the initiatives of the subregionalism are mainly directed at the promoting trade and investment, nothing in their design or application confines their impacts to the subregion Quasi-public and public goods provided by subregionalism also enabling them to operation in larger scale such as regionalism In other words, the linkage with the region as a whole is also enhanced Take the case of the GMS for example, when the three economic corridors are fully completed, it should be technically feasible for goods to be transported by land from Singapore through Malaysia to anywhere in the subregion Furthermore, not only can subregionalism be consistent with regionalism and multilateralism, but the former can also be a catalyst in driving process with the later Five out six Mekong countries (except China) are the members of ASEAN However, only Thailand was one of the founding members of ASEAN, the other four, namely: Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Vietnam (CLMV) joined much later than Thailand when they all became the members of the GMS in 1992 (Vietnam became a member of ASEAN in 1995, Lao PDR and Myanmar in 1997 and Cambodia in 1999) The participation of the GMS members in the ASEAN somehow showed that subregionalism did not hamper the countries to pursue regionalism Moreover, the six riparian countries are also the members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) The WTO membership gives signal to the rest of the trading world that these countries were able to meet a demanding set of international trade and investment rules and guidelines and they are moving towards their goal of free and open trade Obviously, the further countries move towards regionalism and multilateralism, the more profound they have to transform their economic structure towards more market-oriented one Besides, the GMS is a vital land bridge between the dynamic economies of East and Southeast Asia The big partners of 111 ASEAN such as: Japan, India, the United States and the EU are now also the partners of the GMS It goes without saying that the stability and sustainable development and prosperity of the Mekong region are essential to the building of the ASEAN Community as well as of an open East Asia community in the long term Moreover, subregional integration aims to boost the mutual trust and foster goodwill among members which then will enhance the political support and understanding and consequently, relationships among countries are better and this will facilitate the process of cooperation and integration The subregion would be more integrated, prosperous and equitable thanks to harmonious relationships among the countries Moreover, by assisting four new and less developed members of ASEAN, namely: Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar and Vietnam financially and technically, the GMS program can narrow the gap among the members of ASEAN and foster closer relationships among the new and old members of ASEAN Consequently, closer relationships among the GMS will pave the way for more integrated ASEAN Lastly, subregional integration can help transitional economies avoid trade imbalance with developed countries Since transitional economies have not been ready in terms of legal framework and human resources, especially technical barriers to trade tend to be higher in developed countries, trading with developed countries in the framework in multilateralism or regionalism would result in disadvantage compared to developed countries Subregionalism could help solve the situation by clustering the countries at the equal developing stage together hence developing countries can trade with each other on a more equal footing than with developed countries The GMS program pulls together the four late comers of the Southeast Asian region which are slowly moving towards more market-based system They are sharing the same obstacles and problems on the way of economic transition, especially experiencing trade deficit with other developed countries The GMS aims at enhancing competitiveness of these countries through connection, in order to help these countries in particular, the six countries in general are able to be compete in export markets and also more likely to attract foreign investment This regional linkage is expected to foster the subregion’s sustainable economic growth, through greater investment, increased trade, and equal sharing of the benefits among participating countries 112 After the Cold War, the world has entered a new phase in history: a phase of cooperation and integration The former centrally planned economies are moving themselves toward more market-based economic system Deeper integration, bigger investment and closer monetary ties seem to be the ultimate goals of most of economies Consequently, the countries are coming closer together to attain the goals, which then lead to a truly global economy In the global economy, countries have become more interdependence in order to share the economic benefits and costs during the process of economic development Vietnam is not an exception The Doi Moi process has witnessed major changes in Vietnam’s ideology of economic management and development The country has also pursued proactive trade liberalization and integration with the regional and world economy with the hope that trade expansion in international markets is a key strategy to boost economic growth Trade brings mutual gains to all the players, irrespective of their size or the nature of their economies.75 Through this expectation, Vietnam has attempted to establish free trade area with other trading partners in, regional, multilateral arrangements such as ASEAN-AFTA, WTO, etc It is hoped that trade-related cost reduction as induced by abolishment and/or reduction of trade and nontrade barriers would help increase export competitiveness and result to an increase in intraregional trade and better access in the world markets Doubtlessly, the open door policy of Vietnam has made the country become more interdependent with the rest of the world In order to become an international citizen in the global market, Vietnam has to step by step adjust its rules and regulations in order to harmonize with the other countries to yield the expected economic results, or it can be said that interdependence has regularized the country’s behavior in the process of integration In this sense, the former centrally planned economy such as Vietnam has to transfer itself towards a more market-oriented economic system since the market economy is the dominant market model in the today’s world However, as a late comer, Vietnam has encountered many obstacles while integrating into global market Shifting to smaller cooperation schemes, such the GMS, is an option that 75 Tim Dunne, “Liberalism,” in The Globalization of world politics, ed John Baylis, Steve Smith and Patricia Owens (New York: Oxford University Press, 2008) 113 Vietnam has opted for to overcome current obstacles, and accelerated the process of economic transition The GMS was formed within a definite spatial entity, the Mekong River, and driven by economic factors At the beginning of 1990s, much of the Mekong riparian countries began to reform and underwent a transition to a market-based economy Actually, have been experiencing a double transition: from subsistence farming to more diversified economies, and from command economies to more open, market-based economies On the other hand, most of the riparian countries were underdeveloped and had low economic starting point Moreover the six GMS member countries were aware that it was difficult to only depend on indigenous strength for solving difficult problems in development in the era of globalization Therefore, clustering together was the best way to encounter current problems, bring about economic and social development The GMS program emerged in response to the proper time and condition of the Mekong region The GMS is a regional arrangement that group six Mekong riparian countries together for promoting sustainable economic growth and improving the standard of living of the people in the region By acting together, GMS countries can exploit economies of scale and competitive efficiencies enabling activities that otherwise might not occur Certainly, the GMS riparian states need to coordinate the domestic policy to generate a true cooperation in the Mekong subregion otherwise a single unity may not emerge The policy coordination can bring about the best outcome of transnational economic relations However, the interdependent relationships are still hindered by national interests, which caused the slow progress of the GMS program, particularly the implementation of the EWEC Especially, the autonomy of states on the border zones is restricted when the GMS-CBTA is fully implemented The national interests are subsumed the subregional benefits; however, the GMS countries seems not ready to not secure their national interests in subregional cooperation Consequently, the GMS program has not gained much achievement up to now 5.2 Challenges of the research It is noted that the EWEC is still relatively underdeveloped with regard to the physical infrastructure and other software factors The EWEC has expected to produce increased investment along the routes, resulting from better infrastructure and regulations, which in turn will help to boost trade with neighboring countries However, the progress is quite slow and at 114 present the EWEC has not yielded much benefit Currently, the EWEC is a mere artery which physically connects the four countries together Therefore, it has not impacted much on the local economy and the economic livelihoods of the local residents as the author expected to see during on-site observation The methodology included filed trip and in-depth interviews with key informants However, due to the limited time, the number of informants was not many, and it was not easy to interact with senior government officials; therefore, the data collected was not sufficient enough to have a deeper investigation into the impact of the EWEC to the economic transition in Vietnam The share of information and communications in general were still at an early stage, so it was quite challenging to collect a wide range of data through the usual channels of academic research Moreover, most of the key informants are governmental officials, thus the information somehow unbiased of what the real situation was In addition, the author’s background on economic aspect is limited, hence the explanation of some economic terms is not satisfactory It is undeniable that the countries of the Mekong River Basin share similar cultural roots and has had contacts for many centuries It is true that these countries have been drifted apart at times by historical events and reunited at others The greatest challenge that the GMS members are facing at the moment is a substantial lack of coordination among and within governments, which makes it difficult for the sub-region to emerge as a single entity Even though the hard part of the development process is at a good stage, the soft part of it lacks thorough implementation Therefore, it is necessary to have a further research on how the GMS members coordinate with each other when both hardware and software are fulfilled, how the countries standardize the regulatory framework that should be valid for all of the GMS, and how the new reality might be when the GMS becomes a united entity APPENDIX INTERVIEW QUESTIONS Set 1: Questionnaire for government officials and lecturers Question 1: How would you evaluate the development of the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) in general, and the East West Economic Corridor (EWEC) in particular? Question 2: In your opinion, how has the EWEC contributed to the economic development of Da Nang, Hue, and Quang Tri, particularly in trade and investment? Question 3: According to you, how is the role of the local governments in proposing policies to develop the locals that take advantage of the EWEC? Question 4: How you evaluate the co-ordination between the local and the central in the process of exploiting the advantages of the EWEC? Question 5: Mr Utis Kaothien, a consultant of the Economic and Society Committee of Thailand said “Da Nang would become a competitor against Thailand on the EWEC” Do you think it is possible? If yes, what Vietnamese government need to do? Set 2: Questionnaire for LB-SECA authorities, Da Nang Port authorities and customs officers Question 1: How you perceive the significance of the EWEC to the development of Lao Bao Special Commercial Area/ Lao Bao border gate/ Da Nang Port?) Question 2: It is true that the EWEC has brought many benefits to Lao Bao and Da Nang, but you meet any difficulties during the implementation? Question 3: How you perceive the improvement of the customs procedures when the GMS – CBTA is implemented? 115 116 Question 4: How has the implementation of the CBTA at Lao Bao – Densavanh Border impacted on trade and investment? Set 3: Questionnaire for traders, truck drivers, shop owners, and local residents Question 1: Have you ever heard about the EWEC? Question 2: Do you know that you are living in the Economic Corridor of the GMS? Question 3: Since the regulations of migration and immigration were loosened at the border checkpoint, how has your business been affected? Can you evaluate in concrete terms? Question 4: Have you met any difficulty at Lao Bao Border? Do you think how your job will progress in the future? 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