Nghiên cứu hệ thống cảnh báo sớm các vụ kiện chống bán phá giá đối với mặt hàng thủy sản của việt nam

TRUING DAI HOC KINH TE QUOC DAN DAI HOC KTQD TT THONG TIN THU VIEN PHONG LUAN AN ■ TU LIEU NGUYEN THI THANH NGA NGHIEN CUI HE THONG CANH BAO SOM CAC VU KIEN CHONG BAN PHA GIA DOI vOl • • MAT HANG THUY SAN CUA VIET NAM • • Chuyen nganh: Kinh te doi ngoai LUAN VAN THAC SY KINH TE • • Ngiriri hndng dan khoa hoc: PGS.TS NGUYEN THUdNG LANG Ha Noi, 2012 LOI CAM ON Trong qua trinh thuc hien de tai “Nghien cuu he thong canh bao som cac vu kien chong ban pha gia doi voi mat hang thuy san cua Viet Nam” tac gia da nhan duoc su huong dan, giup do, dong vien cua cac thay co Truong Dai hoc Kinh te Quoc dan va can bo Cuc Quan ly Canh tranh - Bo Cong Thuong r Truoc het, tac gia xin tran cam on Ban giam hieu Truong Dai hoc Kinh te Quoc dan, Vien Dao tao Sau dai hoc va cac Khoa, Vien, Bo mon da tao moi dieu kien giup tac gia hoan chuong trinh hoc tap va nghien cuu Tac gia xin tran cam on PGS.TS Hoang Duc Than va tap the Giao su, Pho Giao su, Tien si cua Bo mon Kinh te Quoc te - Vien Thuong > r r r r mai va Kinh te Quoc te da co nhung y kien dong gop quy bau cho luan van Tac gia xin bay to loi cam on den PGS.TS Nguyen Thuong Lang da tan tinh huong dan, giup tac gia hoan luan van Cuoi cung, tac gia xin cam on su dong vien, giup do, tao dieu kien cua ban be, dong nghiep va nhung nguoi than gia dinh thoi gian nghien cuu va hoan luan van Trong qua trinh thuc hien de tai, hieu biet va dieu kien nghien cuu co han, luan van kho tranh khdi thieu xot Tac gia kinh mong nhan duoc nhung gop y xay dung de luan van duoc hoan thien hon Tran cam on! Ha Noi, thang 12 nam 2012 nr r • Tac gia Nguyen Thi Thanh Nga MUC LUC • • LOI CAM ON MUC LUC DANH MUC CAC CHU VIET TAT DANH MUC BANG, BlEU DO, HINH HOP TOM TAT LUAN VAN LOI MO DAU CHU ONG 1: NGHIEN CUU LY LUAN HINH THANH HE THONG CANH BAO SOM CAC VU KIEN CHONG BAN PHA GIA 1.1 Mot so van de khai quat ve he thong canh bao sdm 1.1.1 Khai niem 1.1.2 Sir can thiet cua he thong 1.1.3 Muc tieu cua he thong 1.2 Nghien cuu cac noi dung hinhthanh he thdng 1.2.1 Nghien cuu cac chi sd cua he thong 1.2.2 Nguon co so du lieu cung cap 18 1.2.3 Co che canh bao 20 1.2.4 He thong cong nghe 22 1.2.5 Nhan lire 24 1.3 Kinh nghiem nghien cuu he thong canh bao sdm chong ban pha gia cua Trung Quoc 25 1.3.1 Co so ly luan hinh he thong 25 1.3.2 Co so thirc tien 30 1.3.3 Bai hoc kinh nghiem doi vdi Viet Nam 36 CHU ONG 2: NGHIEN CUU CO SO THIJC TIEN HINH THANH HE THONG CANH BAO SOM CAC VU • KIEN • CHONG BAN PHA GIA DOI VOl MAT • HANG THUY SAN CUA VIET NAM 38 2.1 Khai quat tinh hinh xuat khau thuy san va nguy co bi kien chong ban pha gia 38 2.1.1 Tinh hinh xuat khau thuy san 38 2.1.2 Nguy co bi kien chong ban pha gia 43 2.2 Thirc tien hinh he thong canh bao sdm 49 2.2.1 Sir can thiet hinh he thong 49 2.2.2 Nhung dieu kien hinh he thong 53 2.2.3 Cac cong viec da tien hanh de xay dung he thong canh bao som cac vu kien chong ban pha gia 59 2.2.4 Su phoi hup giua cac td chuc tham gia xay dung he thong canh bao som 64 2.3 Danh gia nghien cuu he thong canh bao som chong ban pha gia 68 2.3.1 Nhung diem dat dupe 68 2.3.2 Mot so han che 70 CHUONG 3: DINH HUONG VA GIAI PHAP TIEP TUC NGHIEN OUU NHAM HOAN THIEN HE THONG CANH BAO SOM CAC VU KIEN CHONG BAN PHA GIA HANG THUY SAN CUA VIET NAM DEN NAM 2020 72 3.1 Du bao xuat khau thuy san cua Viet Nam va du bao cac vu kien chdng ban A - • • X r • • pha gia den nam 2020 72 3.1.1 Du bao xuat khau thuy san cua Viet Nam den nam 2020 72 3.1.2 Du bao xu the cac vu kien chdng ban pha gia den nam 2020 73 3.2 Dinh huong noi dung tiep tuc nghien cuu he thdng canh bao som cac vu kien chong ban pha gia doi voi mat hang thuy san cua Viet Nam den nam 2020 75 3.2.1 Nghien cuu thi trubng canh bao moi 75 3.2.2 Nghien cuu bd sung them chi so chi tiet 75 3.2.3 Nghien cuu mo hinh canh bao phu hop 76 3.2.4 Nghien cuu co che thu thap du lieu kip thbi 77 3.3 Giai phap tiep tuc nghien cuu nham hoan thien he thong canh bao som cac vu kien chong ban pha gia doi voi hang thuy san cua Viet Nam den nam 2020 78 3.3.1 Mo rong quan diem nghien cuu 78 3.3.2 Xay dung chien luoc va ke hoach nghien cuu tdng the, lau dai 79 3.3.3 Nang cao chat luong nhan luc lam cong tac nghien cuu 80 3.3.4 Van de tai chinh cap cho hoat dong nghien cuu 81 3.4 Mot sd kien nghi 82 3.4.1 3.4.2 3.4.3 3.4.4 Chinh phu 82 Bo, Ban, Nganh lien quan 84 Cac hiep hoi nganh hang va Hiep hoi Thuy san 86 Doanh nghiep xuat khau Thuy san 86 3.4.5 Mot so kien nghi khac 87 KET LUAN 89 DANH MUC TAI LIEU THAM KHAO ! DANH MUC CAC CUT VIET TAT TU VIET TAT TIENG VIET Nghia day du tieng Viet Chfr viet tat CBPG Q BCT Chong ban pha gia Khoi luong xuat khau Bo Cong Thuong CP Chinh Phu ND Nghi Dinh NQ Nghi Quyet QD Quyet dinh XK Xuat khau TL VIET TAT TIENG ANH Nghia day du Chu viet tat Tieng Viet Tieng Anh Antidumping Chong ban pha gia ADB Asian Development Bank Ngan hang phat trien Chau A AHP Analytic Hierarchy Process Mo hinh phan tich phan cap AUV Average Unit Value Gia tri don vi trung binh AD CFA DOC EU GATT GCF HS IMF ITC STAC TRC UNCTAD Commonwealth Fisheries Association Hiep hoi Thuy san Lien Bang Department of Commerce Bo Thuong mai European Union Lien minh Chau Au General Agreement on Tariffs Hiep dinh chung ve Thue and Trade quan va Thuong mai Global Competitiveness Chuong trinh ho tro canh Facility tranh toan cau Harmonized Commodity Description and Code System International Monetary Fund International Trade Commission He thong hai hoa Quy Tien te Quoc te Uy ban Thuong mai Quoc te Shrimp Trade Action Uy ban hanh dong Thuong Committee mai ve Tom Trade Remedies Council Hoi dong tu van ve cac bien phap Phong ve Thuong mai Development Dien dan Thuong mai va Phat • z' T * * • * trien Lien hiep quoc United States of America Hop chung quoc Hoa Ky Conference on Trade and r r USA USD USDOC USITC V1.0 VASEP VCAD VCCI WB WTO United States Dollar United States Department of Commerce Do la My Bo Thuong mai Hoa Ky United States International Uy ban Thuong mai Quoc te Trade Commission Hoa Ky Version 1.0 Phien ban 1.0 The Vietnam Association of Hiep hoi Che bien va Xuat Seafood Exporters and Producers khau thuy san Viet Nam Vietnam Competition Authority Department Cue Quan ly canh tranh Vietnam Chamber of Phong Thuong mai va Cong Commerce and Industry Nghiep Viet Nam World Bank Ngan hang The gioi World Trade Organization To chuc Thuong mai the gioi DANH MUC BANG, BIEU DO, HINH HOP DANH MUC BANG Bang 2.1 Trigia xuat khauthuy san ttr 2006-2012 38 Bang 2.2 Co uxy say phamthuy sny xuat khxy Viet Nam tir 2008-2011 42 Bang 2.3 So snkhtyi eso vukinn coke t lunn khngg ban kh a gia voiso vukinn kkoi xuVng Tkei ky 1995-2011 44 Bang 2.4 Dnkysacysa cvu kiey snn phamthuy sny cua Ho a Ky 49 Bang 2.5 IOnkhsachthiet b i khnn cungxugg uppcSo h e thong .59 DANH MUC BIEU DO Biex 2.1 Toe tang truong try gia xuay khau thuy san qua cac nam 39 Biex 2.2 Co cau thy truong xuay ktiau hang thuy san cua Viey Nam 42 Biex 2.3 Tty c-hong ban pha gia cong tren the gioi Tty 1995-2011 44 Biex 2.4 Ty ie cac may hang 1) i kien chong ban pha gia Then ky 1^^9)5^2011 45 Biex 2.5 Bieu the hien 10 nuoc kheiy kien chong ban pha gia nhieu rkuay tiie giVi tkd'i ky 1995-2011 40 DANH MUC HINH Hint 2.1 Pkam vi ptan tick cco ki tkhng cant bis sVm cic vv kiin ckong bin pti gia 01 DANH MUC HOP Hop 1.1 Tiex cki DOC dink gii “tint kink ngkiem trong” diex tro ckhng bin pti gia 16 84 Nghiem tuc kiem diem nhung co quan tron tranh trach nhiem va khong hoan nhiem vu Van de canh bao som chong ban pha gia la mot van de r r y r r r cap bach doi vdi van de xuat nhap khau cua quoc gia, nen khong dirge phep co sai sot viec quyet dinh, chi dirge phep sai lech mot pham vi nhat r dinh nhung khong dirge anh hirdng tdi cac quyet dinh cua doanh nghiep va hiep hoi nganh hang Thdi gian tdi, chinh phu can linh hoat hon nira qua trinh tham gia dam phan va tim hieu de dua dugc nhung noi dung quan trgng luat r r r y chong ban pha gia cua cac nudc doi tac Ngoai ra, van de nhay cam chinh tri cung khien cac nudc co the khdi kien chong ban pha gia doi vdi rry r r nudc xuat khau vao quoc gia minh Vi the, van de dam phan, tang cudng kha r r r y r nang hgp tac quoc te la mot van de het sue quan trgng 3.4.2 Bo, Ban, Nganh lien quan Tren co sd phan cong chuc nang nhiem vu cua Chinh phu, cac Bo ban nganh cd the giao nhiem vu nghien curu dur an dudi dang de tai nghien cuu r r y khoa hgc cap Bo, cap Nha nudc de huy dong nguon luc tham gia tir cac trudng Dai hgc, cao dang, co sd dao tao chuyen nganh ca nudc hoac cong bo rong rai ve nhu cau tuyen chgn de tai nghien cuu de thu hut cac cong trinh nghien cuu khoa hgc tir sinh vien nudc ngoai, cac nha khoa hgc nudc ngoai Doi vdi cac cong trinh nghien cuu khoa hgc cd tinh kha thi, dugc lira chgn de tai trg nghien cuu sau hon nham trien khai ung dung vao thuc tien Lap ke hoach tai chinh cho nghien cuu du an phu hgp Trong dua cac chinh sach khuyen khich, khen thuong va che dai ngo dac biet de thu hut sir quan tam cua gidi chuyen gia va ngoai nudc De lam dugc dieu nay, tren co sd nhung chuyen dam phan hgp tac cua r y r Chinh phu va Nha nudc Viet Nam, Bo ke hoach dau tu phoi hgp vdi Bo tai 85 chinh, Bo ngoai giao co trach nhiem tim kiem co hoi ho tro va quan ly nguon ODA tu cac to chuc quoc te, nhu: Quy tien te quoc te (IMF), Ngan hang the z giai (WB), Ngan hang phat trien Chau A (ADB), hoac su giup do, hop tac cua cac co quan thuc hien canh bao chdng ban pha gia tai cac nudc da va dang co he thong canh bao chdng ban pha gia tuong doi phat trien nhu r r •> a a Trung Quoc, Han Quoc, Su giup dd cd the la ca noi dung phan mem hoac cd the ve mat ky thuat vdi su hudng dan, cung lam viec cua cac chuyen gia cua ho Sau lua chon duoc md hinh nghien cuu phu hop cho he thong, giai doan trien khai xay dung can co su tham gia chat che cua cac can bo chuyen mon cua cac co quan lien quan: Bo Cong Thuong, Bo Thuy san, Bo Cong Nghiep, Bo Thuong Mai,VCCI, Trung tam tu van WTO Cac bo ban A AZ nganh can bo tri nhan luc tham gia vao du an hop ly, tranh chdng cheo chuyen mon vdi cac co quan tham gia khac va dam bao nhan luc la nhung ngudi thuc su tam huyet vdi he thong, cd dieu kien ve thdi gian nghien cuu va khong vudng ban tdi cong tac chuyen mdn khac de tap trung toan luc cho qua trinh nghien cuu Ngoai su tham gia true tiep cua cac co quan nudc, hoat dong z a nghien cuu can co su ho tro rat ldn tu phia cac co quan dai dien cua Viet Nam A d nudc ngoai Cac co quan dai dien cua Viet Nam d nudc ngoai se la nguon cung cap thong tin dang tin cay va nhanh chdng nhat Neu thuc hien duoc dieu se dam bao viec cung cap thong tin duoc dam bao thong suot, deu dan va khong phu thuoc vao viec mua, thue du lieu tu cac van phong luat su, AZA Z van phdng tu van nudc ngoai Can nhan manh rang, cac co quan dai dien cua Z A Z Z Z Viet Nam duoc dat d rat nhieu nudc tren the gidi, neu dam bao viec cung cap z z du lieu cho he thong se rat hieu qua viec md rong pham vi thi trudng cua he thong canh bao 86 3.4.3 Cac hiep hoi nganh hang va Hiep hoi Thuy san Cac hiep hoi nganh hang dong vai tro quan trong qua trinh nghien curu phat trien he thong canh bao som Cac hiep hoi nganh hang la to chuc hieu ve san pham cua nganh hang va cung co nhieu kinh nghiem qua trinh tham gia vao cac vu kien chdng ban pha gia Tren co so phat trien toan dien he thdng canh bao, doi vbi pham vi canh bao cua tung mat hang cd \r the chu dong tham gia nghien cuu de xuat du an Hoat dong cua nhung nam qua cho thay Hiep hoi Thuy san dong vai tro rat quan trong viec r r canh bao sdm cac vu kien chdng ban pha gia cho mat hang thuy san xuat khau cua Viet Nam chua cd he thdng chung cua Viet Nam De hoan thien he thdng canh bao sdm doi vdi mat hang thuy san xuat khau can chu dong hon nua cong tac nghien cuu va phan bo nhan luc tham gia hop ly Viec lap cac to chuc nganh nghe dai dien cho Hiep hoi d cac r \ r # r quoc gia cua Hiep hoi thuy san cung se dong gop rat nhieu vao co che cung cap du lieu va thdng tin cho nghien cuu Qua trinh hoat dong cua cac to chuc \ r a r se thu duoc nhieu thdng tin lien quan den nganh nghe san xuat thuy san cua cac nudc, do viec theo doi thu thap du lieu va gui bao cao du lieu thudng xuyen ve cho Hiep hoi can phai dupe dau tu thich dang ve thdi gian, phan bo nhan sur hop ly 3.4.4 Doanh nghiep xuat khau Thuy san r r r La doi tuong true tiep duoc hudng loi tu he thdng canh bao, cac doanh r r z nghiep xuat khau Thuy san dong vai tro rat ldn co che thu thap du lieu cho nghien cuu he thdng va van hanh he thdng Thdng qua qua trinh hop tac kinh doanh, tham gia hoi cho thuong mai cung nhu md cac chi nhanh, van phong dai dien, dai ly d nudc ngoai se gop phan nang cao kha nang thu thap thdng tin cho he thdng canh bao Muc dong gop cua cac chi nhanh, van 87 phong d nudc ngoai khong nen dimg lai d viec thu thap cho doanh nghiep xuat khau ma phai md rong tam quan sat dir lieu d muc vi md, trd mot kenh thu thap thong tin quan cho he thong canh bao 3.4.5 Mot so kien nghi khac r r - Nghien cuu he thong canh bao sdm chong ban pha gia la mot cong trinh khoa hoc doi hoi trinh chuyen mon va tinh chuyen nghiep cao, khong the tien giao cho nhung ca nhan va don vi thieu nang luc can thiet ca r r ve kien thuc, ngudi va cor sd vat chat, cung nhu cac cong cu chuyen nganh Tuy nhien, cung khong the giao rieng cho mot bo nao cu the vi se e ? \ r r r r co quan diem nghien cuu thieu da dang, nhat la boi canh nen kinh te r a r x thudng xuyen bien dong nhu hien Vi vay, can cd su phoi hop dong bo, lien nganh cac co quan vdi cac cong cu, phuong phap va md hinh nghien cuu r ' r r > de cd sir doi chieu, so sanh, nhat la cong doan thu thap du lieu dau vao va cong doan xu ly ket luan cudi cung cua cong tac nghien cuu nham gop phan tham chieu, phan bien va hoan thien, nang cao tinh xac thuc cua ket qua nghien cuu - Dac biet, de nang cao chat luong va hieu qua thuc te cua cac ket qua x r r nghien cuu ve he thong canh bao chong ban pha gia noi rieng, quan ly nha x x r r nudc ve kinh te noi chung, can cd su phoi hop chat che hon gitra don vi lam cong tac nghien cuu he thong canh bao vdi cac co quan thu thap thong tin, cac Hiep hoi va doanh nghiep xuat nhap khau cung cac don vi quan ly nha nudc cd lien quan thuc tien Mdi quan he duoc the hien d viec: doanh nghiep va hiep hoi cung cap du lieu cho co quan nha nudc viec nghien r r r cuu, van hanh he thong He thong cd ket qua canh bao chinh xac se giup cac doanh nghiep va Hiep hoi chu dong viec dieu chinh chinh sach kinh doanh cua tung thdi ky Ket qua nghien cuu phu hop vdi thuc tien giup cac co 88 quan quan ly nha nuoc nang cao hieu qua dieu hanh Ben canh do, viec bam sat thdng tin thuc tien cua cac doanh nghiep se giup cong tac hoach dinh chinh sach quan ly nha nuoc co co sd tin cay, linh hoat va chinh xac hon - Cac vien, trung tam nghien cuu kinh te va xa hoi nen giu vai tro la co quan dau mdi, phoi hop voi cac co quan chuyen mon md cac dien dan trao doi, tranh luan ve cac thdng tin kinh te, tir thu thap duoc y kien phan hoi tir a > «> r nhieu nguon khac lam co sd tham khao de hoan thien hon cac ket qua nghien cuu 89 KET LUAN Van de nghien curu he thong canh bao som cac vu kien chong ban pha gia la mot van de kha mdi me nghien cuu ca ve ly luan va thuc te d Viet z Nam Viec dua dau hieu canh bao nguy co bi kien chdng ban pha gia tai thi r trudng nudc ngoai cho cac san pham xuat khau cua Viet Nam la vd cung quan r z va kho khan Mac du he thong canh bao sdm hien - ket qua cua qua trinh nghien cuu thu duoc nhung hieu qua buoc dau, nhung van chua dupe hoan thien ca ve ly thuyet va ung dung Trong khuon kho gidi han pham vi e r r nghien cuu, luan van “Nghien cuu he thong canh bao sdm cac vu kien chdng ban pha gid doi vdi mat hang thuy san cua Viet Nani" tap trung giai quyet nhung van de ly luan va thuc tien sau: r r r a Thu- nhaf He thong hoa mot sd noi dung nghien cuu ve co sd ly luan hinh he thong canh bao sdm chdng ban pha gia cua Viet Nam Cu the la thuc tien hinh he thong canh bao sdm chdng ban pha gia cua Trung z z Quoc Tu ket qua nghien cuu, luan van thuc hien danh gia nhung co sd 9 r r nghien curu de thay dupe uu diem,han che qua trinh nghien curu cua chuyen gia Trung Quoc nham rut bai hoc kinh nghiem cho qua trinh nghien cuu cua Viet Nam Thu hai: Luan van thuc hien nghien ciru nhung co sd thuc tien hinh r z he thong canh bao sdm cac vu kien chdng ban pha gia cua Viet Nam hien noi chung va doi vdi mat hang thuy san cua Viet Nam noi rieng Luan van thuc hien nghien curu nhung van de thuc tien hinh he thong r r canh bao sdm: tinh hinh xuat khau, nguy co bi kien chdng ban pha gia va cac 90 A *> ' dieu kien hinh he thong, tinh hinh cac cong viec da lam de hinh he thdng va dua he thdng vao thuc tien, mdi quan he giua cac ben lien quan qua trinh hinh he thdng Sau do, luan van thuc hien danh gia nhung diem dat dugc va mot diem han che cua qua trinh nghien cuu de thay dugc nhung diem ton tai, lam co sd cho cong tac dinh hudng va de xuat giai phap tang cudng nghien cuu nham hoan thien he thdng thdi gian tdi Tbit- ba: Sau xem xet du bao, trien vong xuat khau hang thuy san Viet Nam den nam 2020, tren co sd ket qua nghien cuu cua nhung noi dung trudc, luan van dua dinh hudng nghien cuu he thdng den nam 2020 Dinh hudng nghien cuu he thdng dugc phan chia theo cac mang nghien cuu de hinh nen he thdng Doi vdi tung mang nghien cuu co nhung dinh hudng rieng De thuc hien nhung dinh hudng nghien cuu do, luan van de xuat mot sd giai phap can dugc thuc hien Cung vdi cac giai phap, luan van dua mot sd kien nghi doi vdi Chinh phu, cac Bo ban nganh, Hiep hoi nganh nghe va cac doanh nghiep lien quan nham day manh hon nua cong tac nghien cuu he thdng vdi r muc tieu xay dung mot he thdng canh bao sdm cd hieu qua viec dua r < r A ket qua canh bao chdng ban pha gia doi vdi mat hang thuy san, gop phan han ' ' A ' _ che thiet hai doi vdi nen kinh te Viet Nam noi chung va cac doanh nghiep r •> xuat khau thuy san cua Viet Nam noi rieng 91 DANH MUC TAI LIEU THAM KHAO • • rw? ■> • a • a • r M r* j Tai lieu tieng Viet A Bruce A Blonigen (2011), Phan tich kinh te luong hoat dong chong ban pha gid d Hoa Ky va kinh nghiem cua ben de dan, Cue Quan ly canh tranh, http://www.vca.gov.vn/Web/Content.aspx?distid=4477&lang=vi-VN Ban Phap che Phong Thuong mai va Cong nghiep Viet Nam (2011), Huang dan ve cac bien phap dam bao canh tranh thuong mai binh dang tai Cong dong Chau Au Phap luat, thuc tien va thu tuc chong ban pha gia, chong tro cap va tu ve (Ban dich), Trung tam Thuong mai Quoc te, http://chongbanphagia.vn/anpham/20110428/phap-luat-thuc-tien-va-thu- 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