Các nhân tố ảnh hưởng đến cơ giới hóa trong sản xuất lúa gạo nghiên cứu điển hình tại tỉnh hà tĩnh

13204 LV.ThS DHKTQD TRUONG DAI HOC KINH TE QUOC DAN -.ca-cs TRUONG DHKTQD ' TT TUAV(’ TJV rrijr Viry i 11.1 liUMj J in i Illi HA : — -: i PHAN VAN HUNG CAC NHAN TO ANH HUONG DEN CO GlOl HOA TRONG SAN XUAT LUA GAO NGH1EN CUU D1EN HiNH TAI TINH HA TINH Chuyen nganh: Kinh te phat trien LUAN VAN THAC SI KINH TE • • Giang vien hu'd'ng dan: PGS.TS LE HUY DUC DAl hoc k.t.i^.id_ TT THONG TIN THUVIEN P’ KlN’Ci 1 AN AN • T I L1K1 TVS HA NOI-2017 i - LOI CAM DOAN Tac gia xin cam doan bai nghien cuu dupe lam mot each doc lap ~ r ' dirdi su giup cua giao vien htrdng dan Cac ket qua, ket luan da neu r r luan van la trung thuc va chua tung dupe cong bo bat ky r cong trinh khoa hoc nao khac Cac so lieu, tai lieu tham khao dupe trich dan co nguon goc ro rang HaNoi, ngay/U thang *3 rp r • Tac gia Phan Van Hung nam2017 LOI CAM ON r Trong thbi gian hoc tap va viet bao cao luan van, ban than da gap khong it kho khan va nhieu vudng mac nhung vdi su giup do, ho trp, hudng dan va su dong vien cua nhung ngubi xung quanh da giup ban than khac phuc, vuot qua chinh nhung rao can Cho den gib, ban than A that sir hai long nhung gi minh da lam dupe vdi nhung ngubi luon dong r r hanh suot thbi gian qua Xin gui lbi cam on chan den: Thay giao Le Huy Due, giang vien khoa Ke hoach - Phat trien/ Truong DH Kinh Te Quoc Dan, la ngubi dan dat, hudng dan, dong vien em vuot qua nhung kho khan thbi gian hoan thien luan van Mac du da rat cd gang de hoan thien ban luan van nay, nhung khong the tranh khdi su thieu sot qua trinh trinh bay bao cao nghien cuu Rat mong dupe quy thay cd dong gop y kien de hoan thien luan van cung nhu giup ban than cai thien kien thuc hon qua trinh hoc tap va lam viec sau YEU CAU CUA HOI DONG CHAM LUAN VAN THAC SI VE 7 X Nhirng diem can sua chua bo sung trade nop luan van chfnh thuc cho Vien dao tao SDH Zi / - ' / ’■ j /- Chu tich Hoi dong (Tyy vci ghi ro ho ten) Cam ket cua Hoc vieni ■-> aVz? jt'zG '1 / rz/'il Z'-'.V -.z fl } ■< -> ■; ' Z' x ~ x x'.hc'Xt :i Hoc vien j Neu hoc vien co trach nhiem chinh sira theo yen cau cua Hoi dong cham luan van Trong trubng hop khong chinh sira se khong dupe cong nhan ket qua bao ve Hoc vien phai dong ban yeu cau chinh sira vao trudc phan muc luc luan van chinh thuc nop cho Vien DT SDH CONG HOA XA HOI CHU NGH1A VIET NAM Doc lap - Tu - Hanh phuc - 0O0 - BO GIAO DUC VA DAO TAO DAI HOC KINH TE QUOC DAN NHAN XET Luan van Thac sT Kinh te, de tai: “Cue nhan to cinh hudng (ten co gio'i hoa san xuat Ida gao Nghien cuu ctien hinh tai tinh lid Tinh” Cao hoc vien: Phan Van Hung Chuyen nganh: Kinh te Phat trien Thuc hien tai: Truong Dai hoc Kinh te quoc dan > r ’ r r Giao vien hudng dan: PGS.TS Le Huy Due Ngubi nhan xet: PGS TS Le Xuan Dinh Co quan cong tac: Tap chi Kinh te va Dir bao, Bo Ke hoach va Dau tu Vi tri Hoi dong cham luan van Thac si: phan bien II Sau doc 92 trang noi dung luan van vdi de tai: “Cue nhan to dnh hudng (ten co' gidi hoa san xuat Ida gao — Ngliien cuu ctien hinh tai tinh Hd Tinh”, tinh tu phan mb dau den ket luan, khong ke phan tom tat, danh muc tai lieu tham khao, phu luc, tdi co nhung nhan xet nhu sau: 1- Tinh cap thiet, y nghia khoa hoc vd thuc tien ciia (te tdi luan van Co gidi hoa nong nghiep noi cluing, san xuat lua gao noi rieng b Viet Nam dang rat cham so vdi cac nude khu vuc va the gidi Nguyen nhan cd the co nhieu, nhung mot nghien cuu chuyen sau ve cac nhan to tac dong nhu ten goi cua luan van la mot de tai co tinh chat khac biet, co tinh cap thiet, vua du muc cho pham vi nghien cuu mot de tai luan van Thac si Kinh te Bdi vay, de tai van bao dam tinh cap thiet doi vdi mot luan van Thac si Kinh te, chuyen nganh Kinh te Phat trien Luan van nhu tdi dupe biet khong trung lap vdi cac nghien cuu da cong bo Tac gia ciing da lap luan kha day du ve ly lira chon de tai va tinh cap thiet cua nghien cuu Ten goi cua de tai luan van phu hop vdi noi dung luan van, dong thdi cung phu hop vdi chuyen nganh dao tao la Kinh te Phat trien 2- Ve hinh thuc ciia luan van va sic hop ly bo cue ciia luan vein Luan van dupe bo tri chuong 11 tiet va cac tieu tiet, phan tom tat, danh muc cac tai lieu tham khao, phu luc Chuong ket cau noi dung 13 trang; Chirong : trang; Chirong : 25 trang; chuong 4: 34 trang Ket cau noi dung nhu vay, chirong co phan nhieu thbi lirpng hon khong can doi so voi cac chirong khac Cach ket cau noi dung theo Id ghich truyen thong, di tir ly luan den thuc tien va giai quyet cac van de thuc tien dat ve co gidi hoa tai mot tinh cu the la Ha Tinhva de xuat cac kien nghi, giai phap 3- Do tin cay va tinh liien ctai cua phuong phap nghien cuu ctd sii dung Luan van da neu dirpe tong quan ve tinh hinh nghien cuu lien quan de tai va xac dinh khoang nghien cun (trang - 8) Xac dinh dupe muc tieu, doi tupng va pham vi nghien cuu Dong thbi xac dinh ro nguon dir lieu va phuong phap nghien cuu cua luan van Nhung phuong phap nghien cun dupe sir dung luan van, theo toi la phu hop voi doi tupng nghien cuu Luan van co sir dung so lieu ket qua dieu tra xa hoi hoc tham 220 phieu danh cho 220 ho gia dinh, sir du ngj mo hinh probit Luan van sir dung kha nhieu cac so do, bieu do, bang, hinh de minh hoa cho qua trinh lap luan Ngoai so lieu so cap tir dieu tra, khao sat cua tac gia, luan van trinh bay so lieu thu cap kha tin cay, cap nhat den nam 2014 Phan phan tich dinh lirpng, luan van da thuc hien kha day du cac birdc va trinh bay ro rang Luan van sir dung 25 muc tai lieu tham khao, co ca cac trang webs, cac tai lieu deu lien quan den noi dung nghien cuu cua luan van r r a •> v 4- Nhung ket qua ctd ctcit chcoc va nhung him che can sica doi, bd sung ciia luan vein 4.1- Nhung ket qua dat diccrc Luan van da tong hop, he thong dupe nhung dupe nhung van de ly luan co ban ve co gidi hoa, vai tro cua co gidi hoa san xuat, each thu danh gia muc co gidi hoa tren co so lire chon dupe mot so tieu chi danh gia mire co gidi hoa Trong phan tich cac nhan to anh hudng den co gidi hoa nong nghiep noi chung va tong san xuat lua gao noi rieng, luan van da dua cac nhan to: trinh khoa hoc, cong nghe; co che chinh sach; dieu kien tu nhien; dac trirng cua tung ho san xuat nong nghiep (nen bd “cua tirng”), vi dac trung la chung cho cac ho san xuat nong nghiep Luan van dac su dung phuong phap phan tich mo hinh probit de danh gia cac nhan to thuoc ve ho nong nghiep Co he thong hoa cac chinh sach lien quan den thuc day co gidi hoa d Trung uong va cua tinh Tinh Luan van da neu dupe han che va nguyen nhan cua han che Cd rut dupe mot so ket luan tir phan tich mo hinh probit Luan van dua cac kien nghi chung va kien nghi cho chinh sach 4.2- Mot so han che can stra doi, bo sung cua luan van Trong luan van nay, doi tupng nghien cuu la cac nhan to anh hudng den co gidi hoa san xuat lua gao, lay dien hinh la tai tinh Ha Tinh Nhung tac gia da di rat lan man, cac nhan to anh hudng (trang 19 - 23)mdi chi neu len cac nhan to, cd nhan to chinh sach Nhung phan tich mo hinh probit lai chi tap trung vao cac dac trung cua chu ho san xuat nong nghiep Phan dau chuong he thong hoa chinh sach lien quan den co gidi hoa la tot, nhung nen nam d phan thuc trang (chuong 3), chuong chi nen dua muc tieu va giai phap thuc hien, tot nhat va hop Id ghich nhat la bam vao ket qua phan tich cac nhan to Luan van dua mot so noi dung ve tu nhiem ky, tu bao cap phan kien nghi chung, nhung chua dupe lap luan d dau luan van Co cho the hien ro tac gia chep ma chua xu ly ky thong tin, chang han cudi trang 76, Quyet dinh 186/2002/QD-TTg, 26/12/2002, the ma tac gia lai viet: “Chi chua day nam ntra la quyet (phai la Quyet) dinh 186 cua thu (phai la Thu) tudng se hoan su menh cua no” \ r r Hau nhu luan van chua dua dupe nhung giai phap thiet thuc lien quan den ket qua nghien cuu cac nhan to anh hudng den co gidi hoa de thuc day qua trinh co gidi hoa Phan noi dung mo ta Phieu khao sat ngudi dan tu trang 93 - 98 can phai dua vao phan phu luc, va toanfophan phu luc phai dupe danh so rieng Cd tai lieu tham khao da su dung d trang 17, nhung khong thay xuat hien tai lieu tham khao, can dupe soat lai va bo sung Trong Tai lieu tham khao, cac trang web lap mot nhom de cudi, sau tai lieu tham khao nude ngoai Van de xay nhieu loi danh may, in an 5- Ket luan: Theo tdi, luan van da cd each tiep can kha hop ly ve phan tich nhan to tac dong den co gidi hoa san xuat lua gao, bdi vay nhung ket qua dat dupe cua luan van la mot cong Day la cong trinh nghien cuu doc lap Luan van cua cao hoc vien dat yeu cau cua mot luan van Thac si Kinh te, chuyen nganh Kinh te Phat trien de bao ve trudc Hoi dong cham luan van Thac si Hci Noi, 12 thcing 08 ncim 2017 Co5 quan xac nhan chu’ ky cua PGS, TS Le Xuan Dinh Chanh Van phong Ngu’d’i nhan xet i/ V' \\ V AO / / PGS.TS Le Xuan Dinh TRlTONG DAI HOC KINH TE QUOC DAN CONG HOA XA HOI CHU NGHIA VIET NAM KHOA KE HOACH VA PHAT TRIEN Poe lap - Tu - Hanh phuc NHAN XET LUAN VAN THAC SI KINH TE Chuyen nganh: Kinh te Phat trien Cao hoe vien: Phan Van Hung De tai: Cac nhan to anh hudng den co gidi hoa san xuat lua gao: Nghien cuu dien hinh tai tlnh Ha TInh Ti'nh cap thiet cua de tai nghien euu Cong nghiep hoa nong nghiep nong thon la mot chu truong ldn cua Dang va Nha nudc nham phat trien nong nghiep nong thon theo hudng hien dai Nganh nong nghiep da trien khai thuc hien co gidi hoa nong nghiep tu kha sdm, ket qua co gidi hoa nong nghiep da co nhung tien ho nhat dinh, nhat la co’ gidi hoa san xuat lua gao Tuy nhien, so vdi cac nudc san xuat lua gao d Chau A, muc co gidi hoa san xuat lua d Viet Nam van han che va thap hon nhieu so vdi cac nudc khu vuc va Chau luc Trong boi canh san xuat lua gao dang phai doi mat vdi nhieu thach thuc, viec ap dung dong bo cac giai phap ky thuat, nhat la co gioi hoa nham nang cao nang suat, chat lupng gao va han che toi da ton that sau thu hoach Cau hoi dat la nhung yeu to nao tac dong tdi viec co gidi hoa san xuat lua gao cua ho lua la cau hoi chua co nhung dan chung day du Luan van tap trung vao viec nghien cuu de tra ldi cau hoi vua dat boi canh san xuat lua gao o Ha TInh la mot lua chon tot Toi danh gia cao, su can thiet cua nghien cuu va su lua chon phu hop cua cao hoc vien tren ca giac phu hop vdi chuyen nganh, dinh hudng dao tao va y nghla vdi thuc tien san xuat lua tai dia phuo'ng Nhung cong dat duoc cua luan van Muc tieu nghien cuu cua luan van la ro rang, thiet ke cua luan van hudng tdi muc tieu nghien cuu va cau hoi nghien cuu Luan van su dung dupc cac phuo’ng phap nghien cuu, phuong phap phan tich co ban nghien cuu khoa hoc xa hoc, bao gom ca cac phuong phuong phan tich thong ke mo ta, hoi quy vdi cac mo hinh phu hop, de giai quyet van de nghien cuu tuong doi hieu qua; So lieu thu cap ve muc co gidi hoa san xuat lua gao dupc trich tu nguon bao cao nghien cuu cua Ngan hang The gidi, To chuc Nong-Luong thuc cua LHQ, Tong cuc thong ke, day la cac nguon du lieu tin cay Du’ lieu so cap dupc thu thap tu khao sat cua de tai vdi mau nghien cuu dupc chon va thu thap du’ lieu kha chat che va tin cay Nhu vay, muc tieu ro rang, cong cu va phuong phap chap nhan dupc, so lieu tin cay nen ket qua nghien cuu cua luan van la dang tin cay Luan van co chon loc mot so nghien cuu tong quan lam co sd cho viec trien khai nghien cuu Toi cho rang, du tong quan nghien cuu mdi dung lai o muc de cap mot cach co ban cac nghien PHU LUC PHIEU KHAO SAT NGIOI DAN Phan I: Gioi thieu Muc dich khao sat Kinh chao ong/ba/anh/chi, chung tdi dang thuc hien mot cuoc tham ve muc so huu trang thiet bi may moc phuc vu cho san xuat lua gao tai Ha Tinh; horn den day de xin y kien cua ong/ba/anh/chi Muc dich cua cuoc tham la tim hieu ve nhu cau trang bi may moc dung cho san xuat lua gao, dau la diem can tro xu huong gia tang nhu cau su dung cac thiet bi may moc de cai thien nang suat cay trong, gia tang thu nhap, giam thieu chi phi phat sinh tir de xuat cac giai phap, chinh sach ho tro phu hop hon cho ong/ba/anh/chi Bao mat thong tin Chung toi cam ket tat ca cac thong tin ma quy ong/ba/anh/chi tra lbi dudi day tuyet doi duoc giu kin, moi thong tin tra ldi chi nham muc dich phuc vu cho cong tac nghien cuu Cac cam ket deu gan vdi trach nhiem ma chung tdi thuc hien tien tdi tim cac giai phap, kien nghi chinh sach de ho tro ong/ba/anh/chi qua trinh san xuat lua Dia chi lien he Moi thac mac hoi dap ve cuoc dieu tra khao sat xin lien he theo dia chi dudi day Rat mong duoc su giup cua quy vi Phan Van Hung - Hoc vien nghien cuu DT lien he: 0973.530.629 Phan II: Noi dung chinh Xin ong/ba/anh/chi cho biet hien gia dinh so huu may nao so cac loai may sau day tuong ung vdi moi khau san xuat Neu ong/ba/anh/chi co nhieu hon may, vui ldng danh dau "X" vao doi vdi toan bo may minh sd hiru Luu y: So~ hiru tuc la tai san rieng cua ong/ba/anh/chi Khau cay Khau lam dat May lam dat Kutoba May lam dat Kutoba May lam dat Kutoba May lam dat Bong May cay Kutoba SPW - Khac (Xin ghi ro): Khac (Xin ghi ro): Khau thu May thu hoach Kutoba He may tudt lua cu Khac (Xin ghi ro): Khau Sav May say chay bang than Chu ho gia dinh ong/ba/anh/chi la: (Chu ho la ngudi dung ten tren co sd thda thuan cua cac vien gia dinh theo quy dinh cua luat cu tru nam 2006) Nu Nam Do tuoi chu ho gia dinh cua ong/ba/anh/chi la: 25 - 40 tuoi < 25 tuoi 41-60 tuoi > 60 tuoi So ngudi ldn (>= 15 tuoi, hien dang d nha lam nong nghiep) gia dinh ong/ba/anh/chi hien nay: Xin quy vi tich dau “ X ” vao trong, neu dap an khac xin dien thdng tin vao: ngudi ngudi ngudi ngudi Khac: Xin ong/ba/anh/chi cho biet, hien dien tich lua cua gia dinh la bao nhieu? sao sao Tren mau Tu den mot mau Ong/ba/anh/chi co tham gia vao to hop tac/hqp tac xa nong nghiep nao khong? Khong Co Khoang each tir nha ong/ba/anh/chi toi dong ruong la bao nhieu? Kinh mong ong/ba/anh/chi ghi cu the so (udc tinh tuong doi nhung cang sat thuc te ket qua nghien cuu cang dam bao tinh chinh xac) Don vi tinh co the la met, km Khoang each tir nha tdi dong ruong la: Neu ong/ba/anh/chi khong sd huu may moc nao phuc vu cho cac khau san xuat lua gao thi bd qua cau hoi Neu co thi mua may moc, gia dinh cd duoc ho tro tir cac cap chinh quyen khong? (Ho tro lai suat, ho tro mot phan kinh phi mua sam ) Khong Co Ong/ba/anh/chi cho biet hien so luong trau va bd ma gia dinh minh hien cd (Tinh tong ca so luong trau va bd) con con Khac (Xin ghi ro): 10 Khoang each tir nha ong/ba/anh/chi den trung tam thi tran gan nhat la bao nhieu? Neu d tai trung tam thi ghi so vao dudi day Don vi tinh co the la met, km Khoang each la: 11 Vi tri dong ruong cua gia dinh ong/ba/anh/chi nam phia ben phai hay ben trai so vdi true during quoc lo 1A theo hudng di tir Bac vao Nam Ben phai Ben trai 12 Ti le % thu nhap cua ong/ba/anh/chi tu san xuat lua so voi tong thu nhap mot mua vu la bao nhieu? (Vi du: 5%, 20% 50%) la: 13 Ddi vdi nhung cau hoi duoi day don vi tinh co the la gid' hoac so phut * Khi chua sir dung may moc vao san xuat, ong/ba/anh/chi thudng can bao nhieu cdng de hoan toan bo dien tich lua cua minh tuong ung tung khau mot vu ( vi du vu xuan): • Cay xong phan ruong cua minh (Dung sue keo trau/bo): • Trong/Cay xong phan ruong cua minh: • Gat/Thu hoach xong phan ruong cua minh: • Phoi sd thoc lua da thu hoach (phoi ngoai trdi dieu kien nang rao): Luu y: nhung cau hoi duoi day, khau san xuat nao ong/ba/anh/chi khong su dung may moc thi khong can phai tra ldi Neu ong/ba/anh/chi thue may moc van hanh tren canh dong cua minh thi van duoc xem la su dung * Sau su dung may moc vao san xuat, ong/ba/anh/chi thudng can bao nhieu cdng de hoan toan bo dien tich lua cua minh tuong ung tung khau mot vu: • Cay xong phan ruong cua minh bang may lam dat: • Cay xong phan ruong cua minh bang may cay: • Gat xong phan ruong cua minh bang may gat lua: • Say xong sd thoc da thu hoach cua minh bang may say: XIN CHAN THANH CAM ON SU” HOP TAC CUA ONG/BA/ANH/CHI PHU L UC KET QUA UOC L UQNG MO HINH PROBIT SO HUU Dependent Variable: BONGSEN Method: ML - Binary Probit (Quadratic hill climbing) Date: 05/18/17 Time: 15:15 Sample: 220 Included observations: 220 Convergence achieved after iterations Covariance matrix computed using second derivatives Variable Coefficient Std Error ;z-Statistic Prob Dl** DIENTICH*** GIOITINH** HOPTACXA*** THUNHAPKHAC*** 0.442128 0.819333 -0.874137 0.856828 0.411077 -2.171247 0.233898 0.230808 0.475811 0.233506 0.062695 0.273477 1.890258 3.549848 - 1.837153 3.669406 6.556817 -■7.939412 0.0587 0.0004 0.0662 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 c McFadden R-squared S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Restr deviance LR statistic Prob(LR statistic) Obs with Dep=0 Obs with Dep=l 0.457769 0.476601 0.753576 0.846130 0.790952 283.6184 129.8317 0.000000 144 76 Mean dependent var S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Deviance Restr log likelihood Avg log likelihood Total obs 0.345455 0.320298 21.95437 -76.89338 153.7868 -141.8092 -0.349515 220 Nguon: So lieu phan tich cua tac gia tu phan men Eview PHU LUC BANG DU BAO - KY VONG CUA MO HINH SO HUU Expectation-Prediction Evaluation for Binary Specification Equation: UNTITLED Date: 05/18/17 Time: 15:25 Success cutoff: C = 0.5 Estimated Equation Dep=0 Dep=l Total P(Dep=l)C Total Correct % Correct % Incorrect Total Gain* Percent Gain** 134 10 144 134 93.06 6.94 -6.94 NA 17 59 76 59 77.63 22.37 77.63 77.63 151 69 220 193 87.73 12.27 22.27 64.47 Estimated Equation Dep=0 Dep=l Total E(# of Dep=0) E(# of Dep= 1) Total Correct % Conect % Incorrect Total Gain* Percent Gain** 120.66 23.34 144.00 120.66 83.79 16.21 18.34 53.09 23.93 52.07 76.00 52.07 68.52 31.48 33.97 51.90 144.59 75.41 220.00 172.74 78.52 21.48 23.74 52.50 Constant Probability Dep=0 Dep=l Total 144 144 144 100.00 0.00 76 76 0.00 100.00 220 220 144 65.45 34.55 Constant Probability Dep=0 Dep=l Total 94.25 49.75 144.00 94.25 65.45 34.55 49.75 26.25 76.00 26.25 34.55 65.45 144.00 76.00 220.00 120.51 54.78 45.22 Nguon: Ket qua rut tu phan men Eview PHU LUC KIEM DINH sU PHU HO’P ANDREWS VA HL SS HUU Goodness-of-Fit Evaluation for Binary Specification Andrews and Hosmer-Lemeshow Tests Equation: UNTITLED Date: 05/I8/I7 Time: 15:42 Grouping based upon predicted risk (randomize ties) Quantile of Risk Low High o ’0 0.00I2 0.0I58 0.0444 0.086I 0.I338 0.I850 0.3I03 0.5095 0.7I40 0.9269 0.0I52 0.0438 0.0855 0.I303 0.I832 0.3I03 0.5070 0.7I02 0.907I 1.0000 Total H-L Statistic Andrews Statistic Dep=0 Actual Expect 2I 22 2I 2I 20 I8 II I I44 9.I449 I0.9203 21.8080 2I.2577 20.679I I9.7307 18.3439 I6.8875 I2.5793 8.736I4 4.09828 0.46972 144.590 Dep=l Actual Expect Total Obs H-L Value 0.19204 0.74233 1.32094 2.26925 3.656I4 5.11248 9.42070 13.2639 I7.90I7 2I.5303 75.4097 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 220 3.42921 0.76825 0.08296 0.79I57 0.8997I 0.31536 0.46303 1.42’38 0.36170 0.61170 9.14487 ’ I I II I6 I9 2’ 76 Prob Chi-Sq(8) 0.3302 Prob Chi-Sq(lO) 0.3638 Ngudn: Ket qua rut tu phan men eview PHU LUC KET QUA UOC LUONG MO HINH PROBITSU DUNG Dependent Variable: DC Method: ML - Binary Probit (Quadratic hill climbing) Date: 05/18/17 Time: 16:29 Sample: 220 Included observations: 220 Convergence achieved after iterations Covariance matrix computed using second derivatives Variable Coefficient Std Error zS'tatist.ic Prob DIALY*** DIENTICH*** GIOITINH** HOPTACXA*** SOTRAUBO*** THUNHAPKHA C * * C -1.210310 0.489122 0.653567 0.548869 -0.283635 0.087737 0.577042 0.226848 0.233565 0.334301 0.228734 0.098318 0.052908 0.248433 ■-5.335331 2.094156 1.955026 2.399599 •-2.884866 1.658301 2.322723 0.0000 0.0362 0.0506 0.0164 0.0039 0.0973 0.0202 McFadden R-squared S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Restr deviance LR statistic Prob(LR statistic) Obs with Dep=0 Obs with Dep=l 0.318989 0.497065 0.996657 1.104636 1.040262 301.4114 96.14685 0.000000 96 124 Mean dependent var S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Deviance Restr log likelihood Avg log likelihood Total obs 0.563636 0.396252 33.44429 -102.6323 205.2646 -150.7057 -0.466510 220 Nguon: So lieu phan tich cua tac gia PHU LUC KET QUA DU BAO - KY VONG CUA MO HINH SU* DUNG Expectation-Prediction Evaluation for Binary Specification Equation: UNTITLED Date: 05/18/17 Time: 16:32 Success cutoff: C = 0.5 Estimated Equation Dep=0 Dep=l Total P(Dep=l)C Total Correct % Correct % Incorrect Total Gain* Percent Gain** 72 24 96 72 75.00 25.00 75.00 75.00 20 104 124 104 83.87 16.13 -16.13 NA 92 128 220 176 80.00 20.00 23.64 54.17 Estimated Equation Dep=0 Dep=l Total E(# ofDep=0) E(# of Dep=l) Total Correct % Correct % Incorrect Total Gain* Percent Gain** 62.87 33.13 96.00 62.87 65.49 34.51 21.85 38.77 33.43 90.57 124.00 90.57 73.04 26.96 16.67 38.21 96.30 123.70 220.00 153.44 69.74 30.26 18.93 38.49 Constant Probability Dep=0 Dep=l Total 96 96 0.00 100.00 124 124 124 100.00 0.00 220 220 124 56.36 43.64 Constant Probability Dep=0 Dep=l Total 41.89 54.11 96.00 41.89 43.64 56.36 54.11 69.89 124.00 69.89 56.36 43.64 96.00 124.00 220.00 111.78 50.81 49.19 Nguon: Ket qua rut tir phan men Eview PHU LUC KIEM HINH SlT PHU HPP ANDREWS VA HL SU' DUNG Goodness-of-Fit Evaluation for Binary Specification Andrews and HosmerLemeshow Tests Equation: UNTITLED Date: 05/18/17 Time: 16:37 Grouping based upon predicted risk (randomize ties) Quantile of Risk Dep=0 Low High Actual Expect 10 2.E-12 0.1697 0.2019 0.2833 0.4553 0.6503 0.7543 0.8221 0.8894 0.9227 Dep=l Actual Expect Total Obs H-L Value 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 0.02932 1.29460 0.22105 0.18159 3.66703 0.52167 2.97151 0.17408 0.00421 0.01201 0.1664 0.1985 0.2781 0.4387 0.6446 0.7537 0.8209 0.8841 0.9217 0.9987 20 20 16 15 5 20.2191 17.9272 16.9288 14.0395 9.44591 6.54900 4.68888 3.30112 2.08923 1.11262 2 17 17 14 18 20 21 1.78092 4.07281 5.07124 7.96046 12.5541 15.4510 17.3111 18.6989 19.9108 20.8874 Total 96 96.3013 124 123.699 H-L Statistic Andrews Statistic 9.0771 10.8704 Nguon: Ket qua rut tu phan men Eview Prob Chi-Sq(8) Prob Chi-Sq(lO) 220 9.07708 0.3358 0.3677 PHU L UC KET QUA U()C L UONG MO HINH HOI QUY DA BIEN Dependent Variable: LIENTUC Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/17 Time: 14:26 Sample: 220 Included observations: 220 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob DIALY DIENTICH SOTRAUBO THUNHAPKHAC THUNHAPKHACA2 C -0.032390 0.042349 -0.009072 0.005464 -0.000301 0.081761 0.006205 0.006318 0.001190 0.002409 0.000174 0.008822 -5.219636 6.703077 -7.621055 2.268300 -1.731238 9.268174 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0243 0.0849 0.0000 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.530582 0.519614 0.040385 0.349023 396.9205 48.37669 0.000000 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 0.056411 0.058267 -3.553822 -3.461269 -3.516447 1.425517 Nguon: So lieu phan tich cua tac gia PHU LUC THONG K MO TA CUA CAC BIEN SO SO HUU Categorical Descriptive Statistics for Explanatory Variables Equation: UNTITLED Date: 05/20/17 Time: 09:10 Variable Dep=0 Mean Dep=l All DIENTICH DI GIOITINH HOPTACXA THUNHAPKHAC c 0.326389 0.506944 0.166667 0.222222 0.921467 1.000000 0.736842 0.736842 0.013158 0.526316 4.089854 1.000000 0.468182 0.586364 0.113636 0.327273 2.016001 1.000000 Variable Dep=0 Standard Deviation Dep=l All DIENTICH DI GIOITINH HOPTACXA THUNHAPKHAC c 0.470528 0.501697 0.373979 0.417191 1.218812 0.000000 0.443273 0.443273 0.114708 0.502625 3.548283 0.000000 0.500125 0.493608 0.318093 0.470288 2.749910 0.000000 Observations 144 76 220 Nguon: Ket qua rut tu phan men Eview PHU LUC THONG K MO TA CUA CAC BIEN SO StT DUNG Categorical Descriptive Statistics for Explanatory Variables Equation: UNTITLED Date: 05/20/17 Time: 09:53 Variable Dep=0 Mean Dep=l THUNHAPKHAC GIOITINH HOPTACXA DIENTICH DIALY SOTRAUBO c 1.281205 0.104167 0.229167 0.260417 0.739583 2.479167 1.000000 2.524147 0.120968 0.443222 0.629032 0177411 1.140323 1.000000 2.016001 0.113636 0.327273 0.468182 0.422727 1.950000 1.000000 Variable Dep=0 Standard Deviation Dep=l All THUNHAPKHAC GIOITINH HOPTACXA DIENTICH DIALY SOTRAUBO C 1.695563 0.307080 0.422503 0.441166 0.441166 3.084696 0.000000 2.945346 0.327413 0.492535 0.485024 0.383573 0.940500 0.000000 2.749910 0.318093 0.470288 0.500125 0.495119 2.200508 0.000000 Observations 96 124 220 All Nguon: Ket qua rut tu phan men Eview Turn; tn e re n co s Processed on: 23-Sep-2017 12:01 -*07 Similarity by Source ID: 8195S7679 inality Report Word Count: 483 32 Submitted: den cc gioi hoa s By Hung P^an Similarity Index 11% Internet Sources: Publica tions: Student Papers: 11% 1% 4% :ument Viewer de Quoted include bibliography evcludin-s matches < 30 words TRUONG DAI HOC KINH TE QUOC DAN - ????? mode: show highest matches together ▼ 38 r'!"l 1— 1% match (Internet from 05-Jul-2017) http: //www, coqioihoa.com — PHAN VAN HUNG CAC NHAN TO ANH HUONG DEN < 1% match (Internet from 10-Dec-2013) http://luanvan.co CO GIOI HOA TRONG SAN XUAT LUA GAO NGHIEN GUV I < 1% match (Internet from 05-Jut-2017) http://www cooioihoa.com DIEN HINH "AI tInh tinh H < 1% match (Internet from 03-Jul-2014) http://vncio.qov.vn LUAN VAN THAC si KINH TE HA NOI - 2017 TRUONG DAI HOC KINH TE QUOC DAN ????? PHAN VAN < 1% match (Internet from 30-Jul-2014) HUNG CAC NHAN TO ANH HUONG DEN co GIOI HOA TRONG SAN XUAT LUA GAO NGHIEN cUu DIEN HINH h11D"// " pc kont u mt g o v.vn •AI TINH HA TINH Chuyen nganh: Kinh te phat trien LUAN VAN THAC SI KINH TE Giang vien hUdng dan: PGS.TS LE HUY D&C HA n < 1% match (Internet from 02-Feb-2014) http://luanvan.co OI - 2017 LOI CAM DOAN ac gia xin cam Scan bai nghien cUu duoc lam mot cach doc lap dudi s s s < 1% match (Internet from 28-Oct-2013) http://wwmjpavinhphuc < 1% match (Internet from 08-3un-2016) < 1% match (Internet from 20-Jan-2013) http://diendannongnghiep.vn