lg P
bÅ·?⁄Ž ?fi⁄Å‹? þ¦⁄Y
b⁄ÊÉ‹£?hM?gÒ«?⁄ž ?fl· ?ËÉ‹
PM?jõ ?fl·Ó?Ê&¦? Ê'‹£?ËÊ'¦?¦š?fi⁄(?⁄'fi? & ? þ? ⁄·„õ ?¤ ‹⁄? õ?⁄\„?¤⁄È‹£^
j⁄ ? ⁄·?‹⁄ëfi? Ä‹£? ⁄ ?‹⁄·?¦ç·? Ä‹£M?lÈ?⁄ ‹⁄?fi⁄(?⁄'fi? & ? þ? ⁄·„õ ?¤ ‹⁄? õM
QM?b⁄›? õ ?6?‹£⁄ý\?¦*\ ˆ0? Ò ˆ1
1
ˆ ?¥OKTVPU?]?O? ⁄·?‹⁄ëfi? Ä‹£?P?ËÉ‹? ÿ? ⁄ ?‹⁄·?¦ç·?G ‒·‹£? ‹⁄H? Ä‹£?OKTVPU?ËÉ‹? ÿM
0
ˆ ?¤⁄È‹£?fi⁄Ó ? ,¦?‹Ò›?¦+‹£?¦š?6?‹£⁄ý\M
RM?j⁄ ? ⁄·?‹⁄ëfi? Ä‹£?POMOOO?Ëž‹£?GPO?ËÉ‹? ÿH? ⁄ ?‹⁄·?¦ç·?G ‒·‹£? ‹⁄H? Ä‹£?þ ?‹⁄ê ? \›
‹⁄ Ç·M
L?s⁄¡›?„Ç·?¦ç·?¦*\? Ò ? ›Õ‹? \?fi⁄Ó ? «?¤⁄›Ó‹£? ‹?¦ë„ ! ? ⁄ ó·? & ?Ë"? ‹?¦ë„?GP L H?¥ OKXT?¦⁄›? ⁄\«? ! PM?j⁄›Ó‹£? ‹?¦ë„?Ëš? ÒY
P ˆ1 L n k
t MSe(ˆ1)
P ?OKSURT
j⁄ ? ⁄·?‹⁄ëfi? Ä‹£ POMOOO?Ëž‹£N ⁄Õ‹£? ⁄ ?‹⁄·?¦ç·?G ‒·‹£? ‹⁄H? Ä‹£?þ ?‹⁄ê ?OKSURT
þ N ⁄Õ‹£M
SM?gÔ„?Ê&¦? Ê'‹£?«1¦? Ä‹£?‹⁄·?¦ç·? ò? \? Ä‹£?¤⁄›Ó‹£? ‹?¦ë„?XTD?¤⁄ ? ⁄·?‹⁄ëfi? Ä‹£ POOMOOO?Ëž‹£?GPO?ËÉ‹? ÿHM
L?s⁄¡› „Ç·?¦ç·? Ò ? ›Õ‹? \?fi⁄Ó ? «?¤⁄›Ó‹£? ‹?¦ë„?⁄\ ?fi⁄þ\? & ?Ë"? ‹?¦ë„?GPL H¥OKXT
¦⁄›? ⁄\«? ! PM?j⁄›Ó‹£? ‹?¦ë„?Ëš? ÒY
1
ˆ L n k
2
t MSe(ˆ1)[ P??[ ˆ1?J n k
2
t MSe(ˆ1) OKSRVUQ?[ P??[?OKVOTTW
j⁄ ? ⁄·?‹⁄ëfi? Ä‹£?POOMOOO Ëž‹£N ⁄Õ‹£?GPO?ËÉ‹? ÿH? ⁄ ?‹⁄·?¦ç·?G ‒·‹£? ‹⁄H? Ä‹£? ‒›‹£
¤⁄›Ó‹£?GSKRVUQ L?VKOTTWHM
TM?bš?6?¤ õ‹?¦⁄›?‒Ù‹£? ⁄·?‹⁄ëfi?¤⁄È‹£?Ó‹⁄?⁄Ê$‹£?Ëõ‹?‹⁄·?¦ç·? \M?s⁄¡›? Ö‹?Ë ò·?Ëš?¦š Ë,‹£?¤⁄È‹£^?sÖ ? \›^
L?s⁄¡›?„Ç·?¦ç·? Ò ? ›Õ‹? \?fi⁄Ó ?¤ ó«?Ëÿ‹⁄?¦åfi?£ Ó? ⁄ õ Y
gOY?G P¥?OH
gPY?G P ?OH
l ò‹? Õ¦? Ž? ÒY
2 1
) ˆ (
Se
0 ˆ
t
fl?¥ XKWRWQ
k
n
2
t ?¥?QKROU
fl ?] n k
2
t ?v ?? Õ¦? Ž?gOM 6?¤ õ‹? ⁄·?‹⁄ëfi?¤⁄È‹£?Ó‹⁄?⁄Ê$‹£?Ëõ‹?‹⁄·?¦ç·? Ò? \ M UM?bš? ⁄ó?¦⁄›?‒Ù‹£?¤⁄ ? ⁄·?‹⁄ëfi? Ä‹£?P?ËÉ‹? ÿ? ⁄ ?‹⁄·?¦ç·? Ä‹£?OKU?ËÉ‹? ÿ?Ë,‹£?¤⁄È‹£^ L?s⁄¡›?„Ç·? Ò ? ›Õ‹? \?fi⁄Ó ?¤ ó«?Ëÿ‹⁄?¦åfi?£ Ó? ⁄ õ Y
gOY?G P?¥?OKUH
gPY?G P ?OKUH
l ò‹? Õ¦? Ž? ÒY
2 1
) ˆ ( Se
6 , 0 ˆ
t
Trang 2lg Q
fl?¥?OKSWWW
k
n
2
t ?¥?QKROU
fl ?[ n k
2
t ?v ??¦⁄Ê\?¦š?¦É? $? Õ¦? Ž?gOM?bš? ⁄ó?‹š ?‒Ä‹£?¤⁄ ? ⁄·?‹⁄ëfi? Ä‹£?P?ËÉ‹? ÿ
⁄ ?‹⁄·?¦ç·? Ä‹£?OKU?ËÉ‹? ÿM
VM?s⁄·?‹⁄ëfi? Ä‹£?¦š? Ò«?‹⁄·?¦ç·? ò? \? Ä‹£? ⁄2¦? 2?¤⁄È‹£^
L?s⁄¡›?„Ç·?¦ç·? Ò ? ›Õ‹? \?fi⁄Ó ?¤ ó«?Ëÿ‹⁄?¦åfi?£ Ó? ⁄ õ Y
gOY?G P?¥?OH
gPY?G P?]?OH
l ò‹? Õ¦? Ž? ÒY
1
) ˆ (
Se
0 ˆ
t
wð ?£ Õ? ‒ÿ? fl ? & n k
2
t ?Ëó?¤õ ? ·ë‹?¦š? ⁄·"¦?« ò‹? Õ¦? Ž?⁄\„?¤⁄È‹£M?ÃÊ\?‒\?¤õ ? ·ë‹ Ó‹⁄?⁄Ê$‹£?¦*\? ⁄\«? ! PM
WM?j⁄ ? ⁄·?‹⁄ëfi? Ä‹£?P?ËÉ‹? ÿ? ⁄ ?‹⁄·?¦ç·? Ä‹£? ! ?Ë\? Ò?OKU?ËÉ‹? ÿM
L?s⁄¡›?„Ç·?¦ç·? Ò ? ›Õ‹? \?fi⁄Ó ?¤ ó«?Ëÿ‹⁄?¦åfi?£ Ó? ⁄ õ Y
gOY?G P ?OKUH
gPY?G P?]?OKUH
l ò‹? Õ¦? Ž? ÒY
1
) ˆ (
Se
0 ˆ
t
wð ?£ Õ? ‒ÿ? fl ? & n k
2
t ?Ëó?¤õ ? ·ë‹?¦š? ⁄·"¦?« ò‹? Õ¦? Ž?⁄\„?¤⁄È‹£M?ÃÊ\?‒\?¤õ ? ·ë‹ Ó‹⁄?⁄Ê$‹£?¦*\? ⁄\«? ! PM
XM?s⁄·?‹⁄ëfi? Ä‹£?P?ËÉ‹? ÿ? ⁄ ?‹⁄·?¦ç·? Ä‹£? Ê& ?OKU?ËÉ‹? ÿM
L?s⁄¡›?„Ç·?¦ç·? Ò ? ›Õ‹? \?fi⁄Ó ?¤ ó«?Ëÿ‹⁄?¦åfi?£ Ó? ⁄ õ Y
gOY?G P ?OKUH
gPY?G P?[?OKUH
l ò‹? Õ¦? Ž? ÒY
1
) ˆ (
Se
0 ˆ
t
wð ?£ Õ? ‒ÿ? fl ? & n k
2
t ?Ëó?¤õ ? ·ë‹?¦š? ⁄·"¦?« ò‹? Õ¦? Ž?⁄\„?¤⁄È‹£M?ÃÊ\?‒\?¤õ ? ·ë‹ Ó‹⁄?⁄Ê$‹£?¦*\? ⁄\«? ! PM
POM?bš?6?¤ õ‹?¦⁄›?‒Ä‹£?«È?⁄ ‹⁄?ËÊ\?‒\?Ëó?fi⁄Å‹? þ¦⁄?‹⁄·?¦ç·? ò? \? Ò?¤⁄È‹£?¦š?6?‹£⁄ý\M s⁄¡›? Ö‹?Ë ò·?Ëš?¦š?Ë,‹£?¤⁄È‹£M?m£›Ò ?„õ·? !? ⁄·?‹⁄ëfiK?¦Š‹?¦š?„õ·? !?‹Ò›?Ó‹⁄?⁄Ê$‹£ Ëõ‹?‹⁄·?¦ç·? ò? \?‹0\?¤⁄È‹£^?gÔ„?¦⁄› þ? -M
L?s⁄¡›?„Ç·?¦ç·? Ò ? ›Õ‹? \?fi⁄Ó ?¤ ó«?Ëÿ‹⁄?¦åfi?£ Ó? ⁄ õ Y
gOY?GqQ?¥?OH
gPY?GqQ ?OH
l ò‹? Õ¦? Ž? ÒY
2
2
f f
; ) k n ( ) R 1
(
) 1 k ( R f
Trang 3lg R
qQ?¥?XQKRV?GqQ?¥?P L?qrrNsrrH?G
) k n ( ) 1 k (
f
) 1 k (
f
¢fl?¥?XUKWT
)
k
n
,
1
k
(
f ¥?TKRQ
¢fl?] ( k 1 , n k )
f v ? Õ¦? Ž?gOM 6?¤ õ‹?ËÊ\?‒\? Ò? \ M?lÈ?⁄ ‹⁄?¦š?6?‹£⁄ý\M?s‒›‹£?«È?⁄ ‹⁄
‒Ç‹K?„õ·? !?£ Ó ? ⁄þ¦⁄? Ò? ⁄·?‹⁄ëfi?£ Ó ? ⁄þ¦⁄?ËÊ'¦?XQKRVD? 2? õ‹?Ë"‹£?¦*\?‹⁄·?¦ç·K
¦Š‹?VKURD? 2? õ‹?Ë"‹£?¦*\?‹⁄·?¦ç·? Ò? ›? \ ? !?‹£é·?‹⁄ Ç‹? Ò?¦Õ¦?„õ·? !?¤⁄Õ¦?¦⁄Ê\ ËÊ\? Ò›?«È?⁄ ‹⁄M
PPM?gÔ„? 2? Õ›?GÊ&¦? Ê'‹£H?‹⁄·?¦ç·? ‒·‹£? ‹⁄? ò? \?¤⁄ ? ⁄·?‹⁄ëfi? Ò?P? ‒ ö·?Ëž‹£? Ù‹£
¤⁄›Ó‹£? ‹?¦ë„?XTDM
L?s⁄¡›?„Ç·?¦ç·? Ò ? ›Õ‹? \?fi⁄Ó ? «?¤⁄›Ó‹£? ‹?¦ë„?⁄\ ?fi⁄þ\? & ?Ë"? ‹?¦ë„?GPL H?¥?OKXT
¦⁄›?dGxNwO¥POOHM j⁄›Ó‹£? ‹?¦ë„?Ëš? ÒY
0
Yˆ L n k
2
t MSe(Yˆ0)[?dGxNw¥PTOH?[ Yˆ0J n k
2
t MSe(Yˆ0)
1
0
ˆ
ˆ
Y
X
2 i
2 0 2
0
) X X (
) X X ( n
1 (
ˆ
)
Yˆ
(
Se
) ˆ ( Se
ˆ )
X
X
(
1 2
2 2
i
SPKXROX?[?dGxNw¥PTOH?TWKQRQT
I?c2? Õ› £ Õ? ‒ÿ?¦Õ? ö ? Ù‹£?¤⁄›Ó‹£? ‹?¦ë„Y
0
Yˆ L n k
2
t MSe(Y0)[?xO?[ Yˆ0J n k
2
t MSe(Y0)
2 i
2 0 2
0
) X X (
) X X ( n
1 1 (
ˆ
)
Yˆ
(
Se
gOY?GlÈ?⁄ ‹⁄?£!¦?¤⁄È‹£?¦š?⁄ ö‹? Ê'‹£? 2? ÊÉ‹£?fl·\‹H
gPY?GlÈ?⁄ ‹⁄?£!¦?¦š?⁄ ö‹? Ê'‹£? 2? ÊÉ‹£?fl·\‹H
v ?¥?» Q?¥?MMM?Z Q?] 2(1)H
bÕ¦⁄?PY? þ‹⁄ Q
fl?‚ð Q
fl?¦š? ⁄·"¦?« ò‹? Õ¦? Ž?⁄\„?¤⁄È‹£M?jõ ? ·ë‹? ò?⁄ ö‹? Ê'‹£? 2 ÊÉ‹£?fl·\‹?¦*\?«È?⁄ ‹⁄M
bÕ¦⁄?QY?w¡«?oL \ ·¡?Go‒› \ „H?] ?¦⁄Ê\?¦š?¦É? $? Õ¦? Ž?gOM?oL \ ·¡?[ ? Õ¦ Ž?gOM
L?s Ç·?¦⁄·è‹?e
v ?¥?»¢?¥?MMM?Z?¢?] f( k 1 , n k 1 )H
bÕ¦⁄?PY? þ‹⁄?¢fl?‚ð ?¢fl?¦š? ⁄·"¦?« ò‹? Õ¦? Ž?⁄\„?¤⁄È‹£M?jõ ? ·ë‹ ò?⁄ ö‹? Ê'‹£? 2 ÊÉ‹£?fl·\‹?¦*\?«È?⁄ ‹⁄M
bÕ¦⁄?QY?w¡«?oL \ ·¡M
L?lÈ?⁄ ‹⁄? 2? ÊÉ‹£?fl·\‹? ë¦?PY
Trang 4lg S
Y?⁄ö? !? 2? ÊÉ‹£?fl·\‹
) U ( Var )
U
(
Var
) U , U
(
Cov
1 t t
1 t t
) U ( Var
) U , U ( Cov
t
1 t t
L?lÈ?⁄ ‹⁄? 2? ÊÉ‹£?fl·\‹? ë¦?Q
t ?¥ PMtLP?J QMtLQJ G`qPH
L?s Ç·?¦⁄·è‹?c·‒ ‹Lv\ ›‹
wð ?«È?⁄ ‹⁄?`qP
2
i
1
t
t
e
e
e
ˆ
?¥P ?«È?⁄ ‹⁄?¦š?⁄ ö‹? Ê'‹£? 2? ÊÉ‹£?fl·\‹?⁄›Ò‹?⁄Ó›? ÊÉ‹£ ˆ ?P ?? ?O ?¦š
⁄ ö‹? Ê'‹£? ÊÉ‹£?fl·\‹? ÊÉ‹£M
?¥ LP ?«È?⁄ ‹⁄?¦š?⁄ ö‹? Ê'‹£? 2? ÊÉ‹£?fl·\‹?⁄›Ò‹?⁄Ó›?Å« ˆ L P ?? S ?¦š
⁄ ö‹? Ê'‹£? ÊÉ‹£?fl·\‹ Å«M
?¥?O ?«È?⁄ ‹⁄ ¤⁄È‹£ ¦š?⁄ ö‹? Ê'‹£? 2? ÊÉ‹£?fl·\‹ ˆ O ?? Q ¤⁄È‹£ ¦š
⁄ ö‹? Ê'‹£? ÊÉ‹£?fl·\‹M
¤F?¥?¤ L?P ?? ‒\? Ó‹£? ? Ò? ·M
‹
GOK? HY?s2? ÊÉ‹£?fl·\‹? ÊÉ‹£Y
G K? ·H?⁄›å¦?G ·K? HY?¤⁄È‹£?¤õ ? ·ë‹?ËÊ'¦M
GG ·K?QH?⁄›å¦?GQK? ·HY?¤⁄È‹£?¦š?⁄ ö‹? Ê'‹£? 2? ÊÉ‹£?fl·\‹M
L?lÈ?⁄ ‹⁄?¦š? õ‹? ‒ô? ⁄ ?¤⁄È‹£? (‹£?cLv? ⁄Ê#‹£?«Ò?fi⁄Ó ? (‹£?cLv?⁄M
lÈ?⁄ ‹⁄?£!¦Y?x ?¥ O??J PwPJ?MMM ¤LPw¤LPK?J Mx ?J?t ?????G£!¦H
nkr?G£!¦HY?ËÊ'¦? K?nkr?G£!¦HY?ËÊ'¦? K ˆK?r¡G ˆH
l ò‹? Õ¦? Ž? ÒY?v ?¥?»
) ˆ ( Var )
n 1 (
n )
2
d 1 (
2
U
L?j ó«?Ëÿ‹⁄?«-¦?`
¡ ?¥ O??J PwP J?MMM ¤LPw¤LPK?J M¡LP?J?t GPH
¡ ?¥ O??J PwP J?MMM ¤LPw¤LPK?J?t GQH
nkrGPHY 2
1
R K qrrP nkrGQHY 2
1
R K?qrrQ
gOY?GlÈ?⁄ ‹⁄?£!¦?¤⁄È‹£?¦š?⁄ ö‹? Ê'‹£? 2? ÊÉ‹£?fl·\‹H
gPY?GlÈ?⁄ ‹⁄?£!¦?¦š?⁄ ö‹? Ê'‹£? 2? ÊÉ‹£?fl·\‹H
v ?¥?» Q?¥?G‹LPHM 2
1
R Z Q?] 2(1)H L?s Ç·?¦⁄·è‹?e
1
1
) 1 k n /(
RSS
1 / ) RSS RSS
(
f
bÕ¦⁄?¦⁄0\Y
PM?o⁄ÊÉ‹£?fi⁄Õfi? \ ?fi⁄Å‹? ‹£?fl·Õ Y
x ?¥ O??J PwP J?MMM J ¤LPw¤LPK?J?t ?????GPH
x ?¥ O??J PwP LPJ?MMM J ¤LPw¤LPK LP?J?tLP?GQH
lÈ?⁄ ‹⁄?P?Ë,‹£? ⁄ ?«È?⁄ ‹⁄?Q?Ë,‹£M
t ?¥ MtLP?J
Trang 5lg T
m⁄Å‹?GQH? & ?‒ž ? ‒.?Ë ?GPH
x L MxLP?¥ O?GPL H?J PGwP L wP LPH?J?MMM?J ¤LPGw¤LPK L w¤LPK LPH?J?t ?J tLP
*
t
U ¥ t ?J tLP
* t
* t , 1 k
* 1 k
* t 1
*
1
*
0
*
nkr?GIH *
0
ˆ K *
1
ˆ K?MMM?K *
1 k
ˆ
)
1
(
ˆ
ˆ *0
j
ˆ
1 k 1 k 1
1
ˆ
Yˆ
QM?o⁄ÊÉ‹£?fi⁄Õfi?b›¦⁄‒\‹¡Ln‒¦· ?GbLnH
x ?¥ O??J PwP J QwQ?J?t ?????G£!¦H
nkr?G£!¦H ?¡ M wÅ„? 2‹£?«È?⁄ ‹⁄?¡ ?¥ ¡LP?J ?GdPH
aÊ&¦?PY nkr?GdPH ˆM?r/? -‹£ ˆÕfi? -‹£?fi⁄ÊÉ‹£?fi⁄Õfi? \ ?fi⁄Å‹?¦êfi?P? ‹£?fl·Õ ?G ËÊ'¦? ⁄\„? Ù‹£ ˆH
??fi⁄ÊÉ‹£? ‒ ‹⁄? \ ?fi⁄Å‹?¦êfi?P? ‹£?fl·Õ Y
x L ˆMxLP?¥ O?GPLˆH?J PGwP L ˆwPK LPH?J QGwQ L ˆwQK LPH?J ??GbLnPH
nkr?GbLnPH ˆ0K ˆ1Kˆ2KYˆ
aÊ&¦?QY
nkrGbLnQH 2
t
1 t 2
nkrGdQH ˆˆM?r/? -‹£ ˆˆ?Ëó?‚Å„? 2‹£?«È?⁄ ‹⁄? \ ?fi⁄Å‹?¦êfi?P? ‹£?fl·Õ ?GbLnQH nkr?GbLnQH ˆ0K ˆ1Kˆ2KYˆ
s õfi? -¦? Ê&¦? åfi?‹⁄Ê? ‒Ç‹?Ëõ‹?¤⁄ ˆ Ê&¦? \·? ›? & ˆ?$? Ê&¦? ‒Ê&¦?¦⁄Ç‹⁄? ö¦⁄?¤⁄È‹£ ËÕ‹£?¤ó?G[PNPOOOHM
aM?j ó«?Ëÿ‹⁄? Ö‹£?⁄Ò«?⁄ž ?fl· ?GdGt H?¥?O ? H
gOY?GcÖ‹£?⁄Ò«?⁄ž ?fl· ?Ë,‹£H
gPY?GcÖ‹£?⁄Ò«?⁄ž ?fl· ? \ H
r/? -‹£? Ç·?¦⁄·è‹ QK?¢?GoL \ ·¡?¦*\ QK?¢H?Ëó?¤ ó«?Ëÿ‹⁄M
L?o⁄Õ ?⁄ ö‹? õ‹ w ?¦š? ⁄þ¦⁄?⁄'fi? & ?«È?⁄ ‹⁄?⁄\„?¤⁄È‹£K?¤ ó«?Ëÿ‹⁄?gOY?G ?¥?OH gPY
G ?OH
L j ó«?Ëÿ‹⁄? 2? ⁄·?⁄ñfi?¦*\ ⁄Ò«?⁄ž ?fl· Y?gOY?GlÈ?⁄ ‹⁄?þ ? õ‹?Ë,‹£H gPY?GlÈ?⁄ ‹⁄
‹⁄ ò·? õ‹?Ë,‹£H
L?j ó«?Ëÿ‹⁄?«-¦?a
nkr?GxNwPK?wQK?MMM?K?w¤LPH Yˆ Yˆ2KYˆ3KMMMK YˆmK?¡ GPH
wð ?«È?⁄ ‹⁄ ¡N?wPK?wQK?MMM?K?w¤LPK 2
Yˆ K 3
Yˆ KMMMK m
Yˆ
¡ ?¥ O??J PwP?J?MMM Pw¤LPK ?J Q 2
i
Yˆ J R 3
i
Yˆ ?J?MMM « m
i
Yˆ Jt ?GQH
gOY?GlÈ?⁄ ‹⁄?P?Ë,‹£H
gPY?GlÈ?⁄ ‹⁄?P? \ H
nkr?GQH 2
2
R
v ?¥?» Q?¥?‹M 2
2
R ?Z Q?] 2(m1)H
J?s Ç·?¦⁄·è‹?e
GxNwPK?wQK?MMM?K?w¤LPK 2
Yˆ H Yˆ
Trang 6lg U
x ?¥ O??J PwP?J?MMM Pw¤LPK ?J ¤ 2
i
Yˆ Jt GRH
gOY?GlÈ?⁄ ‹⁄?£!¦?Ë,‹£H
gPY?GlÈ?⁄ ‹⁄?£!¦? \ H
2 3
2 1 2 3
f f
; ) 1 k n ( ) R 1
(
1 ) R R ( f
bM?j ó«?Ëÿ‹⁄? þ‹⁄?¦⁄·è‹?¦*\? \ ? !?‹£é·?‹⁄ Ç‹?Gt ?fi⁄Å‹? !?¦⁄·è‹H
gOY?Gt ?fi⁄Å‹? !?¦⁄·è‹H
gPY?Gt ?¤⁄È‹£?fi⁄Å‹? !?¦⁄·è‹H
v ?¥?» Q?¥?MMM?Z Q?] 2(2)H
nkr?G£!¦H ?¡ M?sþ‹⁄?r L?⁄ö? !?Ë! ?‚1‹£?¦*\?¡K?j L?⁄ö? !?‹⁄™‹?¦*\?¡
v ?¥?» Q?¥?sa?¥?s\fl·¡?a¡‒‒\?¥
24
) 3 k ( 6
S n
2 2
?Z Q?] 2(1)H
cM?j ó«?Ëÿ‹⁄?fi⁄ÊÉ‹£? \ ? \ ? !? ⁄\„?Ë M
gOY?GlÈ?⁄ ‹⁄?¦š?fi⁄ÊÉ‹£? \ ? \ ? !?¤⁄È‹£?Ë H
gPY?GlÈ?⁄ ‹⁄?¦š?fi⁄ÊÉ‹£? \ ? \ ? !? ⁄\„?Ë H
r/? -‹£ Ç·?¦⁄·è‹ QK?¢?GoL \ ·¡?¦*\ QK?¢H?Ëó?¤ ó«?Ëÿ‹⁄M
\M?j ó«?Ëÿ‹⁄?o\‒¤
ji 2
i a.X
r/? -‹£ 2
i
e ⁄\„?¦⁄› 2
i vi
b
ji
2
i a.X e
e
i ji 2
i lna b.lnX V
e
ln
¥ O?J PM? ‹w ?J?u ???????????GoH
gOY?GlÈ?⁄ ‹⁄?¦š?fi⁄ÊÉ‹£? \ ? \ ? !?¤⁄È‹£?Ë H ?GlÈ?⁄ ‹⁄?o?¤⁄È‹£?¦š?6?‹£⁄ý\H
gPY?GlÈ?⁄ ‹⁄?¦š?fi⁄ÊÉ‹£? \ ? \ ? !? ⁄\„?Ë H ?GlÈ?⁄ ‹⁄?o?¦š?6?‹£⁄ý\H
M?j ó«?Ëÿ‹⁄?f ¡ ¡‒
¡ ?¥ O?J PM w ?J?u
i ji 1
0
X
1
e
i ji 1
0
e
i ji 1
0
X
1
e
j ó«?Ëÿ‹⁄?v⁄ ¡
i 2 i 2 5 2 i 1 4 i 2 i 1 3 i 2 2 i 1 1
0
2
w
R
v ?¥?» Q?¥?‹M 2
w
R ?Z Q?] 2(kw 1)
H
Trang 7lg V
j ó«?Ëÿ‹⁄?«-¦?c
2
i
e ¥ O?J PM 2
i
Yˆ ??J?u GcH
nkrGcH 2
D
R K ˆ1K?r¡Gˆ1H
v ?¥?» Q?¥?‹M 2
D
R Z Q?] 2(1)H
L?s Ç·?¦⁄·è‹?e
v ?¥?» ;f (1,n 2)
ˆ ( Se
ˆ f
2
) 1 1
bÕ¦⁄?¦⁄0\Y
L?ÃÔ? õ 2
iM?b⁄ \?«È?⁄ ‹⁄?£!¦?¦⁄› 2
iM L?b⁄Ê\? õ 2
iY
J?u\‒Gt H?¥ 2
i?¥ 2 ji
X M?b⁄ \?«È?⁄ ‹⁄?£!¦?¦⁄› Xji J?nkr?Gl⁄?£!¦H YˆiM?b⁄ ?«È?⁄ ‹⁄?£!¦?¦⁄› YˆiM
J?k›£\‒ ?⁄š\?«È?⁄ ‹⁄?£!¦M
Ã\?¦"‹£? ·„õ‹
r/? -‹£?⁄Ò«?⁄ž ?fl· ?fi⁄-Y
x ?¥ O??J PwP?J?MMM ¤LPw¤LPK?J?t
m£⁄ ?‹£#? ž‹? Ö ?Ë\?¦"‹£? ·„õ‹?£ 0\?wPK?wQK?wR ??‚ð ?«È?⁄ ‹⁄?⁄ž ?fl· Y
wP ?¥ O?J PwQ?J RwR?J?t ?GIH
gOY?GlÈ?⁄ ‹⁄?£!¦?¤⁄È‹£?¦š?⁄ ö‹? Ê'‹£?Ë\?¦"‹£? ·„õ‹H ?GlÈ?⁄ ‹⁄?⁄ž ?fl· ?fi⁄-?¤⁄È‹£
¦š?6?‹£⁄ý\H ?G 2
*
R ¥?OH
gPY?GlÈ?⁄ ‹⁄?£!¦?¦š?⁄ ö‹? Ê'‹£?Ë\?¦"‹£? ·„õ‹H ?GlÈ?⁄ ‹⁄?⁄ž ?fl· ?fi⁄-?¦š?6?‹£⁄ý\H
G 2
*
R ?OH
l ò‹? Õ¦? ŽY
*
2
*
*
2
*
*
*
f f
; ) k n ( ) R 1
(
) 1 k ( R f
b⁄ÊÉ‹£?hhM?gÒ«?⁄ž ?fl· ? "
) k n (
e )
k
n
(
RSS
ˆ
2 i 2
j ó«?Ëÿ‹⁄?⁄\ ? ⁄\«? !Y
L?j⁄ ? ⁄·?‹⁄ëfi Ò?£ Õ?¦(‹£? Ä‹£?«" ?ËÉ‹? ÿ? ⁄ ?‹⁄·?¦ç·?¤⁄È‹£?Ë M
gOY?G P?J Q?¥?OH ê·?J? P? Ò Q? ‒Õ ? ê·M
gPY?G P?J Q ?OH
l ò‹? Õ¦? Ž? ÒY
2 1
2
) ˆ ˆ (
Se
0 ˆ ˆ
t
) 2 1 2
2 1 2 2
1 ˆ ) Se (ˆ ) Se (ˆ ) 2Cov(ˆ ,ˆ
ˆ
(
Se
Trang 8lg W
L?j⁄ ?£ Õ?⁄Ò‹£?⁄š\?Ëš? Ò?£ Õ?⁄Ò‹£?⁄š\? ⁄\„? ⁄õ?¦(‹£? Ä‹£?«" ? Ê'‹£?¦ç·?‹⁄Ê?‹⁄\·? ⁄
£ Õ?⁄Ò‹£?⁄š\?Ëš? Õ¦?Ë"‹£?Ëõ‹?‹⁄·?¦ç·?«Ö‹⁄?⁄É‹?£ Õ?⁄Ò‹£?⁄š\? ⁄\„? ⁄õM
gOY?G Q?J R?¥?OH ê·?J? Q? Ò R? ‒Õ ? ê·M
gPY?G Q?J R ?OH
L?j⁄ ? ⁄·?‹⁄ëfi Ò?£ Õ?¦(‹£? Ä‹£?P?ËÉ‹? ÿ? ⁄ ?‹⁄·?¦ç·? é‹? Ä‹£?‹/\?ËÉ‹? ÿM
gOY?G P?J Q?¥?OKTH ê·?J? Q? Ò R? ‒Õ ? ê·M
gPY?G P?J Q ?OKTH
ÃÕ‹⁄?£ Õ?«È?⁄ ‹⁄
L?s⁄¡›?„Ç·?¦ç·? Ò ? ›Õ‹? \?fi⁄Ó ?¤ ó«?Ëÿ‹⁄?¦åfi?£ Ó? ⁄ õ Y
gOY?GqQ?¥?OH ?G P?¥ Q¥?MMM?¥ ¤LP?¥?OH
gPY?GqQ ?OH ?G ž‹? Ö ?þ ?‹⁄ê ?P ?OH
l ò‹? Õ¦? Ž? ÒY
2
2
f f
; ) k n ( ) R 1
(
) 1 k ( R f
j ó«?Ëÿ‹⁄? 2? ⁄·?⁄ñfi?¦*\?⁄Ò«?⁄ž ?fl· Y
gOY?GlÈ?⁄ ‹⁄?þ ? õ‹?Ë,‹£H
gPY?GlÈ?⁄ ‹⁄?‹⁄ ò·? õ‹?Ë,‹£H
\M?l ò‹? Õ¦? Ž? ÒY
2 1
2 2 2 1
f f
; ) k n ( ) R 1
(
m ) R R
(
f
2 nb
2 ib 2 nb
f f
; ) k n ( ) R 1
(
m ) R R
(
f
M?l ò‹? Õ¦? Ž? ÒY
1
1 2
f f
; ) k n ( RSS
m ) RSS RSS
(
f
nb
nb ib
f f
; ) k n ( RSS
m ) RSS RSS
(
f
c2? Õ›Y
\M?Â&¦? Ê'‹£?Ë ó«
0
Yˆ ¥ ˆ0?J ˆ1 0
1
X ?J ˆ1 0
2
X ?J?MMM?J ˆk1 0
1 k
X
M?Â&¦? Ê'‹£?¤⁄›Ó‹£
0
Yˆ L n k
2
t MSe(Yˆ0)[?dGxN 0
1
X K 0 2
X KMMMK 0
1 k
X H?[ Yˆ0J n k
2
t MSe(Yˆ0)
r¡GYˆ0H?¥ Var(Yˆ0/X0)
Trang 9lg X
)
X
/
Yˆ
(
0 ?¥ X0.ˆ2(X'.X) 1.X0¥X0.Cov(ˆ).X0
k
n
RSS
ˆ2
) k n
(
) 1 n ).(
R
1
(
1
R
2 2
aÒ ? ëfi?¤ ‹⁄? õ? Ê'‹£
aÒ ?P
bÅ·? PM? j⁄ ? ‹£⁄ Ç‹? ¦1·? õ ? ¤ ö«? r? fi⁄-? ⁄·"¦? ⁄·? ‹⁄ëfi? l? ? Ò? ⁄# ? £ \‹? s? Ö ? «" ? fl·!¦? £ \
‹£Ê# ? \?ËÔ? ⁄È‹£?¤Ç?PW?‹Ä«?GPXSULPXURH
b⁄›?¤õ ?fl·Ó?⁄ž ?fl· ?GhHM
n‒ ‹\‒„? ¡\ ? fl·\‒¡ ?¡ «\ ›‹
c¡fi¡‹ ¡‹ ? \‒ \ ¡? ?r PW?› ¡‒ \ ›‹ ?· ¡ ?¢›‒?¡ «\ ›‹?¢‒›«?SU? ›?UR
IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
q¡£‒¡ ›‒ b›¡¢¢ ¦ ¡‹ r \‹ \‒ ?¡‒‒›‒ sLq\ › zo‒› |
IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
eL \ ¦ eGQKPTH?QPTMVVUR?zMOOO| cvL \ ¦ PMUTPO
IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
`M?r¡‒ \ ?b›‒‒¡ \ ›‹ b⁄ L flGPH?¥?MQVQRU?zMUOQ| eGPKPSH?¥?MQPTOX?zMUTO| aM?e·‹¦ ›‹?e›‒« b⁄ L flGPH ¥?MXUUPU eGPKPSH?¥?MVXSOW
bM?m›‒«\ „ b⁄ L flGQH?¥?PMPSUU?zMTUS| m› ?\fifi ¦\ ¡
cM?g¡ ¡‒› ¡ \ ¦ „ b⁄ L flGPH?¥?QMRRXP?zMPQU| eGPKPUH?¥?QMRWXW?zMPSQ| PM?u õ ?⁄Ò«?⁄Š ?fl· ? ‹£? ⁄ó? Ò?⁄ž ?fl· ?«é·M
QM?f Ó ? ⁄þ¦⁄?¦Õ¦⁄? þ‹⁄?£ Õ? ‒ÿ? ⁄!‹£?¤Ç?b⁄ L fl? ‒›‹£?«-¦?c?¦*\? Ó‹£?c \£‹› ¦? ¡ M?jõ ? ·ë‹
£ ? ?¤õ ?fl·Ó?‹Ò„M
RM?bš?‹£Ê# ?¦⁄›?‒Ù‹£?¦⁄ù? ⁄·?‹⁄ëfi? Ò?‚·? ⁄õ? ⁄# ?£ \‹? ⁄ ?¤⁄È‹£?Ë*?£ Ó ? ⁄þ¦⁄?¦⁄›? õ ?¤ ö«K? ë„?«È?⁄ ‹⁄? ‒Ç‹? ⁄ õ·? õ‹M?gÔ„?¤ ó«? ‒\?6?¤ õ‹?‹Ò„M
SM?s⁄¡›?¤õ ?fl·Ó? ‒Ç‹?‹õ·? ‒›‹£?‹Ä«? ?‹£Ê# ? \ ¦⁄›?‒Ù‹£? ⁄·?‹⁄ëfi?¦\›?⁄É‹? 2?Ëÿ‹⁄?POO?ËÉ‹? ÿ
⁄ ?«1¦? Ä‹£? õ ?¤ ö«? ! ?Ë\?⁄ ? ™‹£? Ò? \›?‹⁄ Ç·M
TM?mõ·?‹Ä«? JP? ⁄·?‹⁄ëfi? Ä‹£?P?ËÉ‹? ÿ? ›? & ?‹Ä«? ? ⁄ ?«1¦? ⁄\„?Ë ? õ ?¤ ö«?G ‒·‹£? ‹⁄H?⁄
™‹£? Ò? \›?‹⁄ Ç·M
UM?bš?‹£Ê# ?¦⁄›?‒Ù‹£?¦⁄þ‹⁄? ⁄·?‹⁄ëfi?l?¦+‹£?fi⁄-? ⁄·"¦? ⁄# ?£ \?s? Ò? õ‹?⁄Ò‹⁄?⁄\ ?⁄ž ?fl· Y J?l ?¥?\?J? s?J? ?‹⁄ë‹?ËÊ'¦?qQ?¥?MOXUQR???G\H
J? ‹?l ?¥?\?J? s?J? ?‹⁄ë‹?ËÊ'¦?qQ?¥?MSQPR???G H
s.?« ?¤õ ?fl·Ó?⁄ž ?fl· ?‹Ò„?¦š? ⁄ó?¤õ ? ·ë‹?«È?⁄ ‹⁄?GPH?¦š?Ë\?¦"‹£? ·„õ‹?⁄\„?¤⁄È‹£^
bÅ·?QM?u& ?¦Õ¦? Ç‹?h? Ò?Ëç·? Ê? Ê?‹⁄Å‹K?x? ⁄·?‹⁄ëfi?fl·!¦? Å‹K?q? Ô ? ·ê ? ‒·‹£? ‹⁄? ò‹?£/ ?¤
⁄Ö‹?R? ⁄Õ‹£?¦*\?«" ?fl·!¦?£ \M?m£Ê# ? \?¦š?¤õ ?fl·Ó?Ê&¦? Ê'‹£?nkr?¦*\?«È?⁄ ‹⁄? \·Y
‹h?¥ L?PMXQSX?J?OMXWRRX ‹x L?OMPQVOW ‹q
r¡???????PMRXVV???????MOQXXP???????????MOUOUW
qL fl·\‒¡?¥?MXXQVSZ?RQ?› ¡‒ \ ›‹ ?· ¡ ?¢›‒?¡ «\ ›‹ ?¢‒›«?PXTX? ›?PXXO
u& ?«™ ?£ Ó? ⁄ õ ?¦*\?nkr?ËÊ'¦? ⁄Ž\?«Ô‹Y
PM?jõ ?fl·Ó?Ê&¦? Ê'‹£?«È?⁄ ‹⁄?‹Ò„?¦š?¦⁄êfi?‹⁄ë‹?ËÊ'¦?⁄\„?¤⁄È‹£^?G¦Ó? ò?«å ? ⁄!‹£?¤Ç? Ò?6
‹£⁄ý\?¤ ‹⁄? õHM
QM?gÔ„?Ê&¦? Ê'‹£?«1¦? Ä‹£?Ëç·? Ê? Ê?‹⁄Å‹? ! ?Ë\?¤⁄ ? Ô ? ·ê ? ò‹?£/ ?¤ ?⁄Ö‹?R? ⁄Õ‹£?£ Ó«?PDM RM?s⁄# ?¤ ? ‒Ê&¦?PXTX?‹£Ê# ? \? ⁄ê„?¤⁄ ? Ä‹£? ⁄·?‹⁄ëfi?PD? ⁄ ?Ëç·? Ê? Ê?‹⁄Å‹? Ä‹£?PDK?fi⁄Ó
¦⁄Ä‹£? ⁄# ?¤ ?PXTX L?PXXO?fl·\‹?⁄ö?‹Ò„?ËÔ?¤⁄Õ¦? ‒Ê&¦M
b⁄™‹ ?¥?TD?¦⁄›?«™ ?¤ ó«?Ëÿ‹⁄? Ò?Ê&¦? Ê'‹£M
Trang 10lg PO
bÅ·?PM
PM?gÒ«?⁄ž ?fl· ? ‹£? ⁄óY?dGxNlK?sH?¥?x ?¥ O?J Pl ?J Qs ?J?t
gÒ«?⁄ž ?fl· ?«é·Y Yˆ ¥i ˆ J0 ˆ l ?J1 ˆ s2 GPH
QM?f Õ? ‒ÿ?b⁄ L fl? ‒›‹£?«-¦?c?¦*\? Ó‹£?c \£‹› ¦?G¤ ó«?Ëÿ‹⁄?«-¦?cH
f Õ? ‒ÿ?‹Ò„?ËÊ'¦? ⁄2¦?⁄ ö‹?Ëó?¤ ó«?Ëÿ‹⁄?£ Ó? ⁄ õ
gO?¥?GlÈ?⁄ ‹⁄?£!¦?¦š?fi ?¤⁄È‹£?Ë H
gP?¥?GlÈ?⁄ ‹⁄?£!¦?¦š?fi ? ⁄\„?Ë H
l ò‹? Õ¦? Ž
v ?¥?» Q?¥?‹M Q
c
q K Q?] QGPH? GIH
f Õ? ‒ÿ?b⁄ L fl?ËÊ'¦? þ‹⁄? ?¦È‹£? ⁄1¦?GIHM
Q
fl ¥?QKRRXP
H
P
G
Q ¥ Q GPH
OT
K
O ¥?RKWSP
Q
fl [ QGPH ?v M?b⁄Ê\?¦š?¦É? $? Õ¦? Ž?gOM
jõ ? ·ë‹Y?lÈ?⁄ ‹⁄?£!¦?¦š?fi ?¤⁄È‹£?Ë M
bÕ¦⁄?QY?u ?oL \ ·¡?¥?OKPQU?] ?¥?OKOTM b⁄Ê\?¦š?¦É? $? Õ¦? Ž?gOM
I?s⁄¡›? Ç·?¦⁄·è‹?e
v ?¥?»¢?¥
2
1
1
) ˆ ( Se
ˆ K?¢?] ¢G P K ‹ Q H
¢fl?¥?QKRWXW
H
Q
‹
K
P
G
¢ ¥?SKSX
¢fl?[ ¢G P K ‹ Q H ?v M b⁄Ê\?¦š?¦É? $? Õ¦? Ž?gOM
J?oL \ ·¡?¥?OKPSQ?] ?¥?OKOTM?b⁄Ê\?¦š?¦É? $? Õ¦? Ž?gOM
jõ ? ·ë‹Y?lÈ?⁄ ‹⁄?¦š?fi ?¤⁄È‹£?Ë M
RM?j ó«?Ëÿ‹⁄?«-¦?a
s⁄¡›?„Ç·?¦ç·?¦*\? Ò ? ›Õ‹? \?fi⁄Ó ?¤ ó«?Ëÿ‹⁄?¦åfi?£ Ó? ⁄ õ Y
gOY?G Ö‹£?«È?⁄ ‹⁄?Ë,‹£H
gPY?G Ö‹£?«È?⁄ ‹⁄? \ H
l ò‹? Õ¦? Ž? ÒY
v ?¥?» Q?¥?‹M Q
a
q K Q?] QG« PH? GIH?G«¥QH
Q
fl ¥?OKXUUPU
H
P
G
Q ¥ Q GPH
OT
K
O ¥?RKWSP
Q
fl [ QGPH ?v M?b⁄Ê\?¦š?¦É? $? Õ¦? Ž?gOM
⁄›å¦
v ?¥?»¢?¥
H P
¤
‹ NG H q P
G
P N H q q G
Q a
Q P Q
a K?¢?] ¢GPK‹ ¤ PH
¢fl?¥?OKVXSOW
H
P
¤
‹
K
P
G
¢ ¥ G P K PS
OT
K
O
¢ ¥?SKU
¢fl?[ ¢G P K ‹ ¤ P H ?v M?b⁄Ê\?¦š?¦É? $? Õ¦? Ž?gOM
jõ ? ·ë‹M?lÈ?⁄ ‹⁄?¦š? Ö‹£?Ë,‹£M
SM?s⁄¡›?„Ç·?¦ç·? Ò ? ›Õ‹? \?fi⁄Ó ? «?¤⁄›Ó‹£? ‹?¦ë„? ! ?Ë\? & ?Ë"? ‹?¦ë„?GPL H?¦⁄›? ⁄\«? ! QM j⁄›Ó‹£? ‹?¦ë„?Ëš? ÒY
?[ ˆ ?Jj ‹ ¤Mr¡Gˆ Hj
¤
‹ ¥ PT
OT
K
O ¥?PKVTR
?[?OKROSTX?J?PKVTR?‚?OKOSOWOV?¥?OKRVUPQT
Trang 11lg PP
jõ ? ỈẽểY?mõỈ? ⁄Ỉ?ể⁄ẽfi?Ỡ\ỷ?⁄Éể? 2?ẹỳể⁄?POO?ẹÉể? ỳ? ⁄ ?ỡ1Ỡ? ẩểẳ? õ ?ẵ öỡ? ! ?ẹ\? ồ?RVK?UPQT ẹÉể? ỳM
TM?s⁄¡ỷ? ẦđỈ?ỠçỈ? ồ ? ỷỏể? \? fi⁄ố ? ỡ? Ê&Ỡ? Ê'ểẳ?ẹ óỡ? ẹ! ? & ?ỡ1Ỡ? ⁄\Ầ?ẹ ? õ ? ẵ öỡ? G ‒Ỉểẳ
ể⁄HM
Gấ òỈ?ểồẦ?Ỡý?ểẳ⁄ý\? ồ?ẵ⁄ ? ⁄Ỉ?ể⁄ẽfi? ẩểẳ? ⁄đỡ?ỡ" ?ẹÉể? ỳ? ồ? ⁄# ?ẳ \ể? ẩểẳ? ⁄đỡ?ỡ" ?ẹÉể? ỳ? ⁄
õ ?ẵ öỡ? ẩểẳ? để? ồ? \ỷ?ể⁄ đỈH
r?ặ Ă J1 Ă ặ?OKROSTX L?OKPWSVU?ặ?OKPPXWR2
jõ ? ỈẽểY?mõỈ?ểẩỡ? JP? ⁄Ỉ?ể⁄ẽfi? ẩểẳ?P?ẹÉể? ỳ? ỷ? & ?ểẩỡ? ? ⁄ ?ỡ1Ỡ? ⁄\Ầ?ẹ ? õ ?ẵ öỡ?G ‒Ỉểẳ
ể⁄H? ồ?OKPPXWR?ẹÉể? ỳM
UM?s⁄¡ỷ?ẳ ố? ⁄ õ ?ẹÔ?Ỡ⁄ỷK?Ỡ⁄ù?Ỡý?ỡẻ?⁄ ể⁄? ồ?ỡẻ?⁄ ể⁄? ỈẦõể? Ẽể⁄? ồ? (ểẳ?ẹó?ẵ óỡ?ẹỳể⁄?ỡẻ?⁄ ể⁄
ẳ!Ỡ?Ỡý?⁄ öể? Ê'ểẳ?ẹ\?Ỡ"ểẳ? ỈẦõể?⁄\Ầ?ẵ⁄ẻểẳM
s⁄¡ỷ?ẦđỈ?ỠçỈ? ồ ? ỷỏể? \?fi⁄ố ?ẵ óỡ?ẹỳể⁄?Ỡạfi?ẳ ố? ⁄ õ Y
gOY?Glẻ?⁄ ể⁄?ẳ!Ỡ?ẵ⁄ẻểẳ?Ỡý?⁄ öể? Ê'ểẳ?ẹ\?Ỡ"ểẳ? ỈẦõểH ?Glẻ?⁄ ể⁄?\?ẵ⁄ẻểẳ?Ỡý?6?ểẳ⁄ý\H ?GqQ?ặ OH
gPY?Glẻ?⁄ ể⁄?ẳ!Ỡ?Ỡý?⁄ öể? Ê'ểẳ?ẹ\?Ỡ"ểẳ? ỈẦõểH ?Glẻ?⁄ ể⁄?\?Ỡý?6?ểẳ⁄ý\H ?GqQ ?OH
l òể? ỏỠ? Ž? ồY
v ?ặ?ữằ?ặ
H P
ẵ
ể NG H q P
G
H P
ẵ NG q
I Q
I I Q
I K?ằ?] ằGẵI PKể ẵIH
ằfl?ặ
H P
ẵ
ể NG
H
q
P
G
H P
ẵ NG
q
I Q
I
I Q
H P Q PW NG H OXUQR K O P G
H P Q NG OXUQR K O
ặ?PKTXWUS
H
ẵ
ể
K
P
ẵ
G I I
ằ ặ G P K PT H
OT
K
O
ằ ặ?SKTS
ằfl?[ ằG ẵI P K ể ẵIH ?v M?b⁄Ê\?Ỡý?ỠÉ? $? ỏỠ? Ž?gOM
jõ ? ỈẽểM?lẻ?⁄ ể⁄?ẳ!Ỡ?ẵ⁄ẻểẳ?Ỡý?⁄ öể? Ê'ểẳ?ẹ\?Ỡ"ểẳ? ỈẦõểM
bẫỈ?QM
lẻ?⁄ ể⁄?⁄ž ?flỈ Y?h?ặ?¡ OMx PMq QM¡Ỉ
ểh?ặ O??J Pểx?J Pểq
gồỡ?⁄ž ?flỈ ?ỡéỈY
IĂ?ặ 0 1 2 u t
e R
Y
e
h
ể ặ Ă J0 Ă ểxJ1 Ă2 ểq
PM?6?ểẳ⁄ý\?Ỡ*\?ỡẻ?⁄ ể⁄Y
L?uò?ỡạ ?ẵ ể⁄? õY
1
Ă ?]?O?ẵ⁄ ? ⁄Ỉ?ể⁄ẽfi?flỈ!Ỡ? ẫể? ẩểẳ? ⁄ ?ẹçỈ? Ê? ẩểẳM
2
Ă ?[?O?ẵ⁄ ? Ô ? Ỉê ? òể?ẳ/ ? ẩểẳ? ⁄ ẹçỈ? Ê?ẳ ốỡM
L?uò?ỡạ ? ⁄!ểẳ?ẵđY
1
Ă ? ẩểẳ?P?ẹÉể? ỳ? ⁄ ?ẹçỈ? Ê? ẩểẳ?OKXWRRX?ẹÉể? ỳM
2
Ă ? ẩểẳ?P?ẹÉể? ỳ? ⁄ ?ẹçỈ? Ê?ẳ ốỡ?OKPQVOW?ẹÉể? ỳM
lẻ?⁄ ể⁄?Ê&Ỡ? Ê'ểẳ?fi⁄(?⁄'fi? & ? Ẽ? ⁄ỈẦõ ? ồ? ⁄2Ỡ? õM
QM?s⁄¡ỷ?ẦđỈ?ỠçỈ? ồ ? ỷỏể? \?fi⁄ố ? ỡ?ẵ⁄ỷốểẳ?Ê&Ỡ? Ê'ểẳ? ! ? ⁄ óỈ? & ?ẹ"? ể?ỠẽẦ?GPL HặOKXT?Ỡ⁄ỷ
⁄\ỡ? ! QMj⁄ỷốểẳ? ể?ỠẽẦ?ẹý? ồY
?] Ă Lj ể ẵMr¡GĂ Hj
ẵ
ể ặ 29
05
,
0
t ?ặ?PKUXX
fl?ặ
)
Ă
(
Se
Ă
j
*
j
ặ
06068 , 0
0 12708 , 0
ặ LQKOXSR
?] LOKPQVOW L?PKUXX?Ã?GLQKOXSRH?ặ?RKSRPP
jõ ? ỈẽểY?j⁄ ? Ô ? Ỉê ? òể?ẳ/ ?ẳ ốỡ?PD? ⁄ ?ẹçỈ? Ê? Ê?ể⁄ẫể? ẩểẳ? ! ?ẹ\? ồ?RKSRPPDM
RM?s⁄¡ỷ?ẦđỈ?ỠçỈ? ồ ? ỷỏể? \?fi⁄ố ?ẵ óỡ?ẹỳể⁄?Ỡạfi?ẳ ố? ⁄ õ Y