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MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF TRANSPORTATION NGUYEN SON TUNG RESEARCH ON SCIENTIFIC AND ECONOMIC BASIS OF USING ELECTRIC TRACTION ON VIETNAM RAILERS Specialization: Transport organization and management Code: 984.01.03 SUMMARY OF THESIS HANOI - 2022 The project was completed at: UNIVERSITY OF TRANSPORTATION Science instructor: Prof Dr Nguyen Huu Ha Assoc Prof Dr Nguyen Thi Hong Hanh Review 1: Review 2: Reviewer The thesis was defended in front of the doctoral thesis grading committee at the University of Transport at the time of day, May 20… The thesis can be found at: - Vietnam National Library - Information Center - Library, University of Transport OPENING Reasons for choosing the topic There are many countries with developed railway networks in the world, many railway lines have been electrified, including several high-speed railway lines, with total length of nearly 40,000 km Meanwhile Vietnam has not had any electrified railway line with electric traction For a long time, the use of diesel engine in Vietnam has shown inadequacies: low train speed, low productivity and efficiency, bad impact on the environment, low competitiveness, etc In the coming time, Vietnam will have high-speed, electrified railway lines which uses electric traction There have been studies on the use of electric traction in railway network in Vietnam, however, they have not yet completed the research on economic and environmental benefits In addition, there has not been a full assessment of the shortcomings in the use of diesel engine and the limitations of using electric traction on Vietnam’s railways; Therefore, it is urgent to study the economic and scientific basis of using electric traction on Vietnam Railways to meet the needs of practical and scientific research Research objective The thesis studies the theoretical and economic basis of using electric traction on Vietnamese railways It asnalyze, proposes and completes the model to calculate the benefits of using electric traction; quantifes that economic benefit Research object The research object of the thesis are the issues related to theoretical basis, scientific and economic basis of using electric traction on Vietnamese railways Research scope About the content: the thesis focuses on studying the scientific and economic basis of using electric traction on electrified railway lines and analyzing the limitations of diesel traction; focusing on research on electrical issues gasification of railway, using centralized electrodynamic locomotive, 1435 mm gauge About space: Conduct research on the use of electric traction on railways, limitations of diesel traction, environmental protection and sustainable development issues, calculate the quantification of benefits that electric traction brings when operating on the Saigon - Nha Trang UMRT line (SG-NT) About time: Research on theoretical and economic basis of using electric traction on railways in the past and present Research and quantitative calculation of the benefits of using electric traction on the Saigon Nha Trang railway line in the period 2028-2031 Research question The absorption of research results at home and abroad on the use of traction power on railways; The actual conditions of Vietnam's railways need to be studied in detail, analyzed and evaluated To achieve the research objective, the thesis topic needs to answer the following questions: Theoretical basis of scientific and economic basis of using electric traction on VNR; Economic model calculates and quantifies the benefits of using traction on a particular railway line The inadequacies of using diesel traction at present and limitations of using electric traction on railways; Environmental issues, sustainable development and power supply for traction, reasons for choosing the Saigon-Nha Trang railway line to calculate and quantify the benefits of using traction Research method The thesis use traditional research methods: Luận án dùng phương pháp nghiên cứu truyền thống: Synthesis, analysis, comparison using economic models & economic quantification of the benefits of electric traction Scientific and practical significance of the thesis *Scientifically: (a),Completing the theoretical basis on the scientific and economic basis of using electric traction on Vietnamese railways.(b),Completing the theoretical framework to solve the problems of the thesis on the scientific and economic basis of using electric traction on VNR.(c), Analysis and assessment of impacts on the environment and sustainable development, issues of using fossil fuels for diesel traction on VNR, such as impacts of emissions, locomotive waste oil on the land environment, water, air, and people Disadvantages of using diesel traction and limitations of using electric traction.(d), Completing the economic model, calculating the benefits of using electric traction and quantifying those benefits (e), Proposing the application of the phased optimal investment problem to quantify the benefits of using electric traction on the Saigon - Nha Trang railway *Practically: Researching practical problems, in the context of the necessity of using electric traction on railways with high transport demand, improving train running speed, lowering transportation costs and increasing market share section of the railway Research on the use of traction power on the world's railways and Vietnam's railways in the past and in the future Analysis and assessment of the current situation of using traction on Vietnamese railways Calculating and quantifying the benefits of using traction power on the Hanoi - Nha Trang UMRT line in the expected period of operation 2028-2031; Structure of the thesis In addition to the introduction, conclusions, references, research results of the thesis are presented in chapters: Chapter 1: Overview of research issues on the use of electric traction in foreign and domestic; Chapter 2: Theoretical basis of scientific and economic basis of using electric traction on Vietnam railways; Chapter 3: Research and complete an economic model to determine the benefits of using traction power on VNR; Chapter 4: Quantify the economic benefits of using electric traction on the Saigon Nha Trang high-speed railway Chapter OVERVIEW OF RESEARCH TOPICS OF USING ELECTRIC TRACTION DOMESTICALLY AND ABROAD 1.1 Overview of scientific researches related to the thesis topic abroad In the world, there have been many studies on the scientific and economic basis and the problems of using traction power on railways: - Research by Prof.Dr.-Ing Arnd Stephan, S.R Ditmeter, J.R.Martin, P.E.Olson et al: Gjermund Bjørseth MO, Armands Gravelsins, Claudio Rochas et al; E Lungomesha & A Zulu, Int J Transp ;M.A.M Ali, K Osra and J Siegmann;Svetlana I Makasheva, Alexandr R Mamaev ;V.Kryliuk; According to the authors Hoa Mau Con and colleagues, these studies have generalized the theoretical basis of using traction power and analyzed the physical basis of electric traction (power supply system, substation, ), pointed out the superiority of traction power pulling power in terms of speed, capacity and economic, environmental, and energy benefits for locomotives Using electric traction on railways is the development trend of railways in countries around the world 1.2 Overview of scientific research works related to the thesis topic in the Country In the country, there have been many studies on the scientific basis, economic basis, the need to use electric traction on Vietnamese railways, these studies have been widely published in textbooks and scientific researches studies at all levels, pre-feasibility study reports on UMRT These studies have formed a theoretical system, a scientific basis for the use of traction power on railways Typical in the research works of the authors: Do Viet Dung, Le Manh Viet, Nguyen Van Chuyen, Truong Duy Phuc; Ho Anh Sang et al; Pham Cong Ha, author Nghiem Van Dinh, Nguyen Huu Ha, Tu Sy Sua, Bui Xuan Phong, and TEDI, TRICC Consulting Organizations The above studies are the direction and experience for the author to continue to perfect the research on the scientific and economic basis of using electric traction on Vietnamese railways 1.3 Research gaps in the thesis There has not been a consensus on the process of researching the theoretical basis of the scientific and economic basis of using electric traction on Vietnamese railways Economic calculation models when using electric traction on Vietnamese railways have not been specifically mentioned; The contents of the benefits brought about when using electric traction have not been analyzed, calculated and not fully quantified In building the theoretical basis of the economy using electric traction in the country as well as abroad, the environment and energy security have not been deeply mentioned in specific economic & social conditions 1.4 Determine the problem to be solved in the thesis.The absorption of domestic and foreign research results on the theoretical basis of economic science using electric traction on railways is the basic foundation for the research of the thesis, which should be considered and analyzed in detail when proposed to apply In order to achieve the research objectives, the thesis finds that it is necessary to continue to study and perfect the theoretical basis of the economic scientific basis of using electric traction on the VNR, to complete the calculation model to determine the benefits economic benefits of using traction on VNR, calculate and propose methods to quantify the specific benefits of traction on an electrified railway line, the SaigonNha Trang route 1.5 Research theoretical framework of the thesis The thesis uses a theoretical framework to complete and develop the theoretical basis of the economic scientific basis of using electric traction on Vietnamese railways, that is, the theory of economic science, the organization of transport rail; Theory of Electric Traffic; the theory of managing and manipulating rolling stock; Theoretical foundations of Environment, Environmental protection and Sustainable development; quantitative theory 1.6 Research process.To achieve the research purpose, the thesis conducts a research on a review of documents on the use of electric traction on railways, in the country and abroad; completing the theoretical basis, perfecting the theoretical framework, completing the calculation model, determining the benefits of using electric traction on Vietnam railways On that basis, calculate and quantify the benefits of using electric traction on the Saigon - Nha Trang high-speed railway Chapter THEORETICAL BASIS ON ECONOMIC SCIENCE BASIS USING ELECTRIC TRUCK ON VIETNAM RAILERS 2.1.Economic theoretical basis 2.1.1 Economic theory is the formation of economic models that reflect the relationships between economic variables in order to create testable hypotheses and test these hypotheses by experimental data When a hypothesis is confirmed by factual data, it can serve as a valuable guide in economic policy making 2.1.2 Scientific concepts, scientific and economic bases Concept of Science: Science is a research process to discover new knowledge, new theories, , about nature and society These new knowledge or theories can, for the better, replace the old, no longer relevant ones The concept of scientific basis: Scientists believe that a scientific basis is when three conditions have been met: true data, public disclosure, and reproducibility The economic mechanism is the internal evolution of the economic system in the development process, and there is interaction between the parts, the constituting aspects of the economy in the process of movement of all aspects, each part That creates the movement of the whole economic system Theoretical framework: theoretical framework used to limit the scope of relevant data by focusing on specific variables and defining the specific view (framework) that the researcher will take in the analysis and interpret the data collected It also facilitates the understanding of concepts and variables according to the given definitions and the construction of new knowledge 2.2 Theoretical basis of quantitative management.Quantitative theory is a tool developed by an investigator to test inferences using specific statistical methods: the theory is logically constructed from what is known about the subject, considering the feasibility of measuring concepts or variables in theory 2.3 Use energy economically and efficiently 2.3.1 Some concepts (1),Energy includes fuel, electricity, heat energy obtained directly or through processing from non-renewable and renewable energy resources.(2), Non-renewable energy resources include coal, coal gas, petroleum, natural gas, etc., which are not renewable.(3)Renewable energy resources include water power,wind power, sunlight, and geo heat, biofuel renewable.(4) Fuel is the form of matter used for fuel 2.3.2 Use energy economically and efficiently It is the application of management and technical measures to reduce losses, reduce energy consumption of vehicles and equipment, and at the same time use equipment with high efficiency The contents of economical and efficient use of energy in production, business and transportation activities have been institutionalized into law by the National Assembly 2.4 Theory of electric traffic 2.4.1.Some concepts (1) National railway serves the general transportation needs of the whole country, each economic region and international transport (2) Urban railways serve passenger transport in urban areas and surrounding areas (3) Highspeed railways are designed according to the design speed ranges: ≥ 200 km/h to ≤ 250 km/h; ≤ 300 km/h; ≤ 350 km/h; (4) Traction power: using 25 kV, single phase, frequency 50Hz (5) Dynamic mode: using distributed dynamics mode (EMU) or centralized dynamics (6 ) Concept of electric traction: traction is generated in the process of converting electrical energy into mechanical energy by traction electric motors placed on electric vehicles (7) Electric braking of trains: When electric current is generated is applied to the resistor, which is called resistive braking; When the generated current returns to the power supply, it is called regenerative braking 2.4.2 Power supply system for railway electrification Electrified railway is composed of 02 parts: electric locomotive (or electric tractor unit) and traction grid system: (2) Power supply system for electrified railway: National power source (A) to the traction power substation (C) the output of (C) through the conductor (D) to the contact grid (E) and the locomotive (or locomotive assembly) that needs to draw electricity from the grid to operate (1)Voltage; (2) Current, direct current (DC); Alternating Current (AC); (3)Frequency; Power supply system: Third rail; Fourth railway; Overhead line (leash);Transformer: A transformer is a static electromagnetic device, used to change the voltage of an alternating current system but keep the frequency of the current unchanged Substation: A substation is a part of the power transmission and distribution system; Electrical contact: The point of contact between two conductors, where current can flow from one conductor to another, is called electrical contact Power is taken from the conductive network to the machine head by sliding contact, through the Power Collector lever on the machine head.There are two main types: overhead power supply, third rail power supply (in addition, there are four-rail, two-rail and two-rail power supply) Criteria to choose the form of power supply: (1) Reliability, (2) availability, maintainability, (3) safety and economy 2.4.3 Power supply for locomotive For the electrified railway line: (1) traction stations are supplied with electricity from the respective power stations of the power system, traction stations convert electricity according to the type of current and voltage level to provide for trains using electricity.(2) from the power station pulls the contact line (overhead power supply type) and through the contact rod (need to be energized) sliding along the contact wire will reach the traction electric motors ( for power supply system via overhead contact network) (3) on traction locomotives, there are transformers that reduce voltage, then rectify current to supply traction motors 2.5 Technical economic system of diesel traction 2.5.1 Some common features (1) Diesel locomotives use fossil fuels, so the attached technical facilities are: fueling stations, lubricating oil supply, equipment, waste oil collection In the first operation Diesel machines emit harmful gases and waste oils that are harmful to the environment (2) Diesel locomotives have limitations in terms of: Speed, low traction weight, poor energy efficiency, expensive repair and maintenance 2.5.2.Repair grade of locomotive To determine the number of repair orders of each type of locomotive, it is necessary to calculate and statistic the total running kilometers of each type of work and for each type of locomotive, from which based on the type of repair level (called cycle time) locomotive repair) for each specific running kilometer to calculate repair levels 2.6 Theoretical foundations of environment and sustainable development 2.6.1 Environmental concepts (1) Environment includes natural factors and manmade materials surrounding people.(2) Environment affects life, production, existence and development of humans and organisms.(3) Environmental components are physical elements that make up the environment such as soil, water, air, sound, light, organisms, ecosystems and other physical forms (4) Conservation activities environmental protection means activities to keep the environment clean and beautiful; Limiting adverse impacts on the environment (5) Environmental standard is the allowable limit of parameters of ambient quality, content of pollutant - Legal basis for environmental protection in Vietnam: (1) Legal documents approved by the National Assembly (2) Environmental protection tax 2.6.2 Composition and quality of air in the environment 2.6.2.1 The concept (1) Air is a mixture of many gases, in addition to superheated water vapor.(2) Air has characteristics: nature, temperature of air, relative humidity 2.6.2.2 Regulation of the limit value of substances in the air Ambient air quality is regulated with limits on substances harmful to humans The Vietnamese standard stipulates the limit values of basic parameters, including sulfur dioxide (SO2), carbon (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), ozone (O3), PM10 dust (dust ≤ 10μm),(Pb) in the air 2.6.2.3 Air pollution affects human health and the environment When the air is polluted, substances and particles that exceed the limit will cause great harm to people and the environment Some types of dust (including in the form of particles), appearing in the environment are (1) PM10, PM 2.5, (2) Dust; (3) gases CO2, CO,SO2 NO2 gas 2.6.3 Theoretical foundations of sustainable development At the World Summit on Sustainable Development held in Johannesburg (South Africa) in 2002: "Sustainable development" is a development process with a close, reasonable and harmonious combination of three aspects of development, including: economic development, social development and environmental protection Some criteria of sustainable development (1) Sustainable economic development is fast and safe development, quality (2) Socially sustainable development is assessed by criteria, such as HDI, income equality coefficient, indicators on education, health, social welfare, cultural enjoyment (3) Environmentally sustainable development includes the following basic contents: (a) effective use resources, especially nonrenewable resources (b) development does not exceed the load capacity of the ecosystem (c) reduce emissions, eliminate pollution, Some principles of sustainable development (1) Principle of people's entrustment (2) Principle of equality between generations (3) Principle of prevention: (4) principle of decentralization and authorization; (5) the polluter pays the fine 2.7 Improve train running speed, increase the throughput capacity of the route 2.7.1 Concept of train running chart (1) The train running chart is the movement graph of trains in a day and night, (2) is the basis for organizing train operation, unifying the work of stations, locomotives, wagons, bridges and roads, signal information and parts related to the expressway; (3) the expressway determines the arrival and transit times of the trains in the space, (4) on the basis of the high-speed rail, people make a train schedule The elements of the traffic control are the running time of the train, the distance from the station, standard locomotives and wagons 2.7.2 Train speed: Train running speed is the average speed of the train on the road, excluding the time to stop at the station along the way and the time to decelerate 2.7.3 Technical speed : Technical speed is the average running speed of the train (including the time of deceleration, but not the time of parking along the road) 2.7.4 Capacity : Throughput capacity is the maximum number of trains (pairs of trains) that can pass through a section or route in a certain period of time, under certain technical organizational conditions The passing capacity of a space depends on the type of traffic control for train operation and the magnitude of the factors (1) running time on the space (2) distance from station and distance from chasing; (3) number of lines on stations along the way 2.7.5 Carrying capacity :Carrying capacity is the number of tons of goods (number of wagons) that can be transported across a section or route in a unit of time under certain technical organizational conditions Carrying capacity can be calculated for both directions or for each separate direction of a route Chapter RESEARCH AND COMPLETE ECONOMIC MODEL FOR DETERMINING BENEFITS OF USING ELECTRICAL TRADE ON VIETNAM RAIL 3.1 Analysis of the current situation of using electric traction on Vietnamese railways 3.1.1 The process of forming and developing Vietnam's railway network Vietnam railway network.Vietnam's railway network has a total length of 3.143 km, of which 2.530 km of the main line, including types of gauge: 1000 mm gauge (85%), 1435 mm gauge (6%), track gauge cage 1000 mm & 1435 mm (accounting for 9%) The density of mainline railway reaches 7,6 km/1000 km2 The national railway network has routes: Hanoi - Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi - Hai Phong, Hanoi Dong Dang, Hanoi - Lao Cai, Hanoi - Quan Trieu, Kep - Luu Xa, Kep - Ha Long and some branch lines The length of the VNR network in general relative to population and territory is very low: 35,135 m/1.000 people and 0,008125 km/km2 of territory Means of transport.(1) Regarding locomotives, VNR manages and operates 267 diesel locomotives of all kinds, with branches of Locomotive Enterprises spread along railway lines, along with dozens of fuel supply points to locomotives; (2) Passenger wagons in the whole industry have more than 1000 passenger cars; (3) freight wagons including about 5000 wagons, freight wagons of various types and low loads, about 60% of service life over 25 years; technical speed ≤ 80 km/h; (4) CV-PD wagons with generators installed on passenger trains are 60 cars 3.1.2 Rail transport output and market share.The output of rail transport in the past years (2020-2021, due to the impact of the covid epidemic), passengers on the train has not reached 10 million HK, and the tons of transported goods have not reached million tons In terms of traffic volume: (1) Passenger transport: in 2019 only accounted for 1.37% (2) Freight in 2019 only accounted for 1.17% of the total circulation of modes of transport 3.1.3 Actual situation of using traction power on Vietnamese railways Currently, on railway lines, diesel traction is used, not electric traction is used, because no railway lines have been electrified According to the policy of the Government of Vietnam, it will invest in the construction of a high-speed railway north-south axis, in which priority is given to investment in the Saigon - Nha Trang, Hanoi - Vinh routes, this will be a route using energy The first electric traction in our country on the National Railway 3.2 Sustainability in fuel supply for diesel locomotives 3.2.1 Collecting environmental protection tax through fuel prices According to the environmental protection tax schedule, each kg of diesel oil is subject to 2,000 VND through the fuel selling price; the cost of rail transport that pays environmental protection tax through the price of diesel fuel to run trains accounts for the following proportion: 1.07% in 2018; In 2019 it is 1.07%; In 2020 is 1.14%; In 2021 it is 1.21% of the total fuel cost of the locomotive 3.2.2 Sustainability in diesel fuel supply.The total amount of fossil fuels used in a single year at the end of the twentieth century is equivalent to the amount of fossil vegetation in 422 million years on the earth's surface and ancient oceans In the future this type of fuel will be exhausted due to use because they are not renewable Therefore, this type of fuel for diesel engines is not sustainable 3.3 Power supply for electric traction.According to the Electricity Master Plan, in 2025, 352-379 billion kWh is needed, of which renewable electricity (small hydroelectricity, wind power, solar power, biomass power 12.5%; imported electricity 1.54%) By 2030, 506 ÷ 559 billion kWh is needed, of which renewable electricity (small hydroelectricity, wind power, solar power, biomass power ) is 10.7%; According to the report at the end of the 2018 period, the Railway Project Management Board on the pre-feasibility study of the high-speed railway (RRT) 11 The statistics in Tables 3.4 and 3.5 show that over 90% of accidents and deadlocks on the main line are caused by road vehicles and other vehicles that cause railway problems, disrupt train operations, and incur additional costs damage to vehicles and society ΔHTn is the benefit that comes from reducing the amount of time the main line is deadlocked; ΔHTn = etn × ttn (VNĐ) (3.8); (1) etn is the value of one hour of HK (or cargo) circulating in the train, (2) ttn is the main line deadlock time (hour) 3.6.4 Group of benefits for transport businesses 3.6.4.1 Save energy for running trains In the rail transport business: (1) energy costs often account for more than 40% of transportation costs, (2) the average total efficiency when towing the train of electric locomotives is 23.6%, of diesel locomotives is 19%; (3) fuel (energy) cost of singletrack electric traction is 30% lower than diesel traction: (4) lower fuel (energy) cost of electric double-track traction compared to diesel traction 27% 3.6.4.2 Save on machine repair costs For electric locomotives, the major repair cycle (also known as the overhaul level of the locomotive) ranges from 1,600,000 km (diesel locomotive ranges from 700,000 km to 900,000 km), the repair cycle Major repair of electric locomotives is more than times longer than diesel locomotive major repair cycles.Call ΔSsc the benefit brought in repairing computer locomotives through diesel locomotive repair: ΔHsc = esc × (isc%) M (VND) (3.9) Where: (1) esc is the unit price of a diesel locomotive repair period; (2) M is: number of times to repair diesel locomotives (calculated according to the number of running kilometers and specifying the number of kilometers of locomotives for the repair period); (3) (isc%) is: percentage reduction of electric locomotive relative to diesel locomotive 3.6.4.3 Benefits of not having to use lubricating oil for locomotive engines When using electric traction, no amount of engine lubricant is generated, so the benefit brought by electric traction is the cost of using lubricating oil of diesel traction Calling ΔNLdbt the benefit of electric traction ΔNLdbt = e dbt × Ddbt (VND) (3.10) Where: (1) Ddbt is the amount of engine lubricating oil of the diesel locomotive (with the norm of lubricating oil calculated according to fuel consumption (when the diesel locomotive can pull the output of tons km total weight equivalent to tons km total weight) of traction power of electric locomotive); (2) edbt : Is the unit price of lubricating oil, VND/kg; 3.6.4.4.Benefits due to not incurring fuel allocation costs a, Invest in fuel distribution equipment for locomotives Equipment for storing and supplying fuel for diesel locomotives, including: diesel fuel tank, fuel pump (both engine pump and backup hand pump), fuel supply pipeline, call ΔDTb as the initial cost Investment in equipment of fueling stations for diesel locomotives:: ΔDTb = n C Tb mTb (VNĐ) (3.11) Where: (1) CTb is the unit price of each type of equipment (from i to n) for dispensing fuel; (2) mTb is the number of equipment (from i to n) used for dispensing fuel 12 b, Benefits when saving costs for labor and fuel distribution for locomotives Like item a, electric locomotives not need to be fueled, so this cost of diesel locomotives is a benefit when using electric locomotives If ΔDcpnl is called the labor cost of fueling diesel locomotives, then this cost determined by the formula: ΔDcpnl = lcpnl × LDcpnl (VND) (3.12) In which: (1) Lcpnl : salary of fuel distribution workers; (2) LDcpnl: Labor to distribute fuel 3.6.4.5 Benefits when there is no cost of collecting waste oil Call ΔDTgdt the cost of collecting waste oil, which is also the benefit of electric locomotives ΔDTdbt = lgdt × LDdbt (VND) (3.13) (1) ldbt: Wages of collectors; (2) LDdbt: Labor to collect waste oil from diesel locomotives 3.6.4.6 Benefits of reducing the time taken for a single locomotive to receive fuel According to the calculation and statistics of using diesel locomotives, the time the locomotive enters the fuel depot accounts for about 6% of the total operating time of the locomotive; when using electric traction, not waste this time; Therefore, the time consumption of diesel locomotives running in and out of the fuel depot is the benefit of electric locomotives; if we call ΔĐcđ is the benefit when using electric traction, the following formula can be applied to determine ΔĐcđ = n C cđ mcđ ×6% (VND) (3.14) In which (1) Ccdi is the unit price of operating hours of diesel locomotives (calculated for each type of locomotive from i ÷ n); (2) mcdi is the operating hours of diesel locomotives (calculated for each type of locomotive from i ÷n) in the calculation period; (3) 6% is the hourly consumption rate of diesel locomotives (statistics of experience) doing operations (electrical traction is not generated) 3.6.4.7 Benefits of not incurring fuel transportation charges When using electric traction, there is no cost of transporting fuel, if ΔVCnl is called the cost of transporting fuel diesel, then this cost is the benefit that electric traction brings ΔVCnl = enl × mnl (VND) (3.15) In which: (1) enl is the freight for diesel fuel calculated for 01 ton km; (2) mnl is ton km of fuel transported from the place of purchase to the fueling station of the diesel traction management; 3.6.4.8 Benefits of not using generators in passenger trains When using electric traction to pull passenger ships, it is not necessary to invest in generators (MPD), repair and fuel supply, ; so these costs are benefits of electric tractio a, Save the cost of purchasing MPD Let the investment cost of MPD be (ΔMPmp)’ ΔMPmp = emp × mmp (VND) (3.16) Where (1) emp is the unit price of a generator with a capacity consistent with the number of passenger cars built in the train; (2) mmp number of generators on passenger train b, Save on repair costs.Call ΔMPĐsc the repair cost of the power plant, ΔMPĐsc is calculated as follows: ΔMPĐsc = n SC × Mpđ (VND) (3.17) 13 In which (1) SC: unit price for a generator repair period; (2) Mpđ : Number of times (1÷n) repair of the corresponding generator c, Benefits due to no fuel allocation and waste oil collection of MPD; Saving benefit due to not having to supply fuel, collect waste oil of generator, called: ΔMPĐpđ ; ΔMPĐpđ = Lcp × mpđ ×12 (VND) (3.18) In there; (1) Lcp is the salary and wage allowances of laborers who distribute and collect; (2) mpđ is the labor for distributing diesel oil and collecting waste oil of MPD d, Benefits of not having to tow additional CV-PD wagons in passenger trains When using electric traction, there is no need to connect the wagons fitted with MPD in passenger trains, the cost of pulling the generators, which is the benefit of using electric locomotives,this benefit is ΔPĐnl; ΔPĐnl = Nnl ×Dnl (VND) (3.19) In which (1) Nnl is the fuel consumed, calculated from the ton km of the total weight of the CV-PD wagon, and the consumption norm of the diesel locomotive towing passenger trains (2) Dnl is the unit price of 01 kg of diesel fuel 3.6.4.9 Benefits from investing in locomotives Because the purchase price of electric locomotives is only 50% to 70% of the price of diesel locomotives (compared with the same capacity); called ΔĐ is the benefit of saving on investment costs in purchasing electric locomotives ΔĐ = % Đ (VND) (3.20) Where (1) (%) is the percentage of the unit price of an electric locomotive compared to the unit price of a diesel locomotive (2) Đ is the unit price of a diesel locomotive (same capacity) 3.6.4.10 Save travel time of passengers The electric locomotive pulls passenger trains with high speed, the train running time is reduced, passengers save time on the road Call the benefit ΔLk when using electric traction: ΔLk = Ck × Δtk (VND) (3.24) Where: (1) Δtk is the number of hours saved by HK by train; (2) Ck is the value of 01 hour of HK 3.6.4.11 Save the value of goods lying on the road, and increase working capital turnover a, Save the value of goods lying on the road When reducing the time of goods in transit, enterprises can increase cash flow in business and save bank loans; This benefit is determined: let ΔLh be the benefit value of goods traveling on the road, then: ΔLh = Ch × Δth (VND) (3.25) where (1) Δth is the number of hours saved in the transportation of goods; (2) C h is the average value of 01 hour of the goods.b, Saving using working capital When increasing the speed of goods circulation, customers can take the initiative in working capital Call ΔLhld the benefit of saving working capital; ΔLhld = Ch × Δth × % Vld (VND) (3.26) Where: (1) Δth is the number of hours saved in the amount of goods transported; (2) Ch is the average value of 01 hour of transported goods; (3) %Vld is the loan interest rate Chapter QUANTIFYING THE ECONOMIC BENEFITS WHEN USING ELECTRICAL TRUCK ON THE SAI GON - NHA TRANG HIGH-SPEED RAIL 4.1.Overview of the Saigon -Nha Trang high-speed railway line 4.1.1 Reasons to choose high-speed railway from Saigon - Nha Trang 14 a) The section of the Saigon - Nha Trang route located in the North - South highspeed railway line has been prioritized by the Government [31] in the construction investment planning for the period 2021-2030 and the period 2031-2050 b) This is a section of route with high transport demand for both goods and passengers on the North-South axis and especially connecting to Long Thanh airport c) There are relatively complete data related to investment, construction and organization of train operation on the route, and preliminary calculations of highspeed railway infrastructure (vehicle means of transport and other technical bases); basic investment items, total investment, and preliminary assessment of the project's investment efficiency Some information and economic specifications of the Saigon - Nha Trang HSRAccording to the final report of the Vietnam and Japan Consulting Joint Venture (1) Line length: 363 km; there are stations; first station: Thu Thiem (Saigon), last station: Nha Trang; and stations of the line: Long Thanh, Phan Thiet, Tuy Phong, Thap Cham (2) Road gauge: 1435 mm; double track, electrification, automatic train signal (3) Traction power of electric locomotive; (4) high speed up to 200 km/h; (5) Passenger wagon of 1435 mm gauge with capacity of 98 passengers/carriage, selfweight of wagon 52,4 tons/wagon, load 8,9 ton; 26,3 m long; (6) Cargo wagon: 1435 mm track gauge, 61 ton/wagon load, 25 ton/wagon self-weight, 16 m long wagon (7) Locomotive depot: The main depot is located in Thu Thiem, sub-depot is located in Nha Trang.(8) Car depot: The main section is located in Thu Thiem, the sub-depot is located in Nha Trang.(9) Total estimated investment capital: US$14,000 million; (10) The investment implementation scenario follows the following stages: (a) The investment stage reaches a speed of up to 200 km/h, the investment will end; (b) In the initial phase, the investment up to the time of running at 120 km/h is USD 10,970 million (c) During the operation period, continue to invest in each subsequent year to increase train speed, respectively t1 = 1,070 million USD (to reach a speed of 140 km/h), t2 = 960 million USD (to achieve a speed of 140 km/h) reaching a speed of 160 km/h), t3 = $1,000 million to reach a speed of 200 km/h 4.1.2 Demand for passenger and cargo transportation on the Saigon-Nha Trang resettlement railway route 4.1.2.1 Passenger transport demand Based on forecast results: (a) passenger density (hk/day) of sections (1) Nha Trang - Thap Cham: 17,000 ; (2) Thap Cham – Tuy Phong 17.000 ; (3) Tuy Phong – Phan Thiet: 21.000; (4) Phan Thiet - Long Thanh: 27.000; (5) Long Thanh - Thu Thiem: 37.000; (b) The average number of passengers (in and out) of stations per day is as follows: Nha Trang 16,560; Thap Cham 2.884; Tuy Phong 6.220; Phan Thiet 9.344; Long Thanh 15.152; Thu Thiem 37.036 With the above data, it is possible to determine the average daily passenger demand: odd boarding, odd boarding, even boarding, and even boarding at stations.(According to the regulations on the train operation chart of VNR, passenger trains departing from Hanoi bear odd number symbols, routes to Hanoi bear even number symbols).Demand in 2028 is aggregated as follows: 15 Table 4.1 Passenger demand forecast on sections (Passenger/day, 2028) Up – Odd Down – Odd Up – Even Down – Station Way Way Way Even Way Nha Trang 12.050 0.0 0.0 11.570 Tháp Chàm 825 770 700 820 Tuy Phong 680 765 500 800 Phan Thiết 1030 1300 1200 850 Long Thành 5.500 1.400 1.100 6.500 Thủ Thiêm (SG) 0.0 15.800 16.850 00 (Source: Author's compilation from consulting scripts) Annual passenger demand increases from 5% to 6,7% with such an increase, until 2031 when Long Thanh airport comes into operation stably (traffic of 100 million Hk/year, about 10% 15 % use by means of railway), then the daily demand on the route, as follows: Table 4.2 Forecast of passenger demand on sections (Passenger/day, year 2031) Up – Odd Down – Odd Up – Even Down – Even Station Way Way Way Way Nha Trang 24.100 (0)0 0,0 23.140 Tháp Chàm 1.650 1.540 1.400 1.640 Tuy Phong 1.360 1.530 1.000 1.600 Phan Thiết 2.060 2.600 2.400 1.700 Long Thành 11.000 2.800 2.200 13.000 Thủ Thiêm (SG) (0)0,0 31.600 33.700 (Source: Based on the data of Table 4.1, research data of the Consultant, the author's own synthesis) 4.1.2.2 Cargo transportation needs In order to have a basis for a comprehensive review in the use of electric traction on the UMRT line, the thesis chooses a scenario of mixed operation of both passenger and freight trains The freight demand on the North-South corridor (Saigon - Nha Trang section) for transport on the UMRT route is from 3.5 million tons/year to million tons/year 4.1.2.3 Select type of electric locomotive.The thesis calculates and selects the scenario: Electric locomotive towing passenger train weighing over 1000 tons, speed reaching over 200km/h, regenerative braking; Traction electric locomotive: with a capacity of over 5000 kW, speed of 150 km/h to 160 km/h, train weight between 2,200 tons and 2500 tons, using regenerative electric braking 4.1.2.4 Determine the plan of pairs of ships Plan of pairs of ships.Using the daily scenario running types of passenger trains and freight trains, as follows:a, Organize types of passenger trains: Passenger trains throughout Saigon - Nha Trang (SG - NT), with a composition of 15 carriages; 16 passenger train in the Saigon - Nha Trang section, with a composition of 13 carriages; Short-haul passenger train (Long Thanh – Saigon), component of 8-car train b, Organize pairs of cargo ships from Saigon to Nha Trang; c, After 2028, each year on the SG-NT route, an increase of pair of full-time passenger trains, pairs of sectional passenger trains, and pairs of LT-SG shortdistance passenger trains; Number of pairs of ships in each period : cargo ships of pairs / day are stable year by year ; Passenger train ; (1) the year 2028 is 16 pairs; (2) the year 2029 is 21 pairs ; (3) the year 2030 is 26 pairs ; (4) the year 2031 is 31 pairs Plan to use locomotive.Calculation and determination of locomotive parameters: Determine the types of time: (a) parked in Saigon and Nha Trang; each point 1.5 hours ; (b) road running time hours/direction; (c) the number of hours of operation of all passenger trains during a day requires 55 hours ; for passenger ships, the section is 61 hours; for aircraft carriers, it is 26 hours; freight trains are 54 hours; d); each balancing machine operates 20 hours/day; on the basis of the above calculation, the balance of the number of used machines is 14, the number of standby machines is 1, and the total number of machines is 15; Similarly calculate for the years and the specificity of each year when the speed is increased; 16 machines in 2029, 17 machines in 2030; 2031 is 21 machines 4.2 Calculation of transport indicators for each period.For the criteria of passengers a, Passengers on board Let the number of passengers traveling on a train in a year be HK We have: HK = m × I × (i%) × nk ×365 (passenger) (4.1) m: number of coaches in the train ; I: is the number of seats on the wagon; I = 98 hk; nk number of passenger trains in the calculation time ; (i%): efficiency of seat use on passenger car : passenger train is 88%; regional passenger ships are 86%, Long Thanh airport passenger ships are 100%; Applying the above formula to calculate the number of ships and the year 2028 is 12,154,646 hk; 2029 is 15.843,248 hk ; in 2030 is 19,531,850 hk; in 2031 is 23,220,452 hk, b, Passenger km The formula for calculating passenger km ; HKkm = HK × l × t ; in which: HK is the number of passengers on board of ships in the calculation period; l: is the passenger transport distance: km, l = 363 km; t: is the calculation time, 365 days/year; In 2028, the number of passengers km is: 3,285,810,740 hkkm, including: (1) Passenger trains throughout: HKs = 4,721,640 × 363 = 1,713,955,320 hkm; (2) Passenger train section: HKKd = 3,999,086 × 363 = 1,451,668,220 hkm; (3) Long Thanh aircraft carrier: HKLT = 3,433,920 × 35 = 120,187,200 hkm Similarly calculated for the year 2029;2030; 2031: In 2029: the number of passengers km is 5,375,657,254, In 2030 it is 6,339,178,000 hk km, In 2031 the number of passengers km is: 7,242,795,758 hkkm, 17 c, Target gross ton km (abbreviated as Tkm tt) passenger train Ton km total weight of passenger train is calculated by (total self-weight of the carriages in the train plus the total weight of wagon) and multiplied by the running distance of the train.With parameters of weight, self-weight and the number of passenger trains of all kinds running in each year with segment distances, the total weight ton km is calculated as follows: 2028: 3,055,202,300 Tkmtt; The year 2029 is: 3,057,754,000, tkmtt; in 2030: is 3,060,305,000, tkmtt; In 2031: 3,062,857,000, tkmtt For freight transport norms Target of tons of transport goods.This indicator is determined by the sum of the ton km of cargo with the total ton km of self-weight of the train The year 2028 is calculated as 1,659,493,625 Tkmtt, the following years take the same result as 2028 Target ton km ((Tkm) of goods This indicator is determined by multiplying the tons of transported goods by the transport distance The year 2028 is 1,212,329,250 Tkm; the years 2029,2030, 2031 as well as 2028 Indicator Ton km gross tonnage (Tkmtt) of cargo ships This indicator is determined by the sum of tons of cargo kilometers with the total weight of the train Calculating Tkmtt of freight trains (2028): 1,212,329,250 + 447,170.625 (25 wagons × 22.5 tons/car × trips × 363 km × 365 days = 447,170.625 Tkm tt.) = 1,659,493,625 Tkmtt 4.3 Quantify the benefits of using electric traction 4.3.1 The basis of the calculation and selection data can be quantified Based on the formulas to determine the benefits brought by the use of electric traction (collected in Chapter 3), based on the transport criteria calculated in Section 4.3 Some calculated data are gathered from the following sources: Ministry of Industry and Trade (expected electricity price), costs of China's D19 E locomotive and purchase price of diesel, lubricating oil, distribution and collection costs collecting waste oil, fuel consumption norms for train operation, lubricating oil norms (Saigon locomotive branch); tariff schedules, purchase price of generators, cost of collecting and supplying fuel to MPD (Hanoi Railway Transport Joint Stock Company); estimated purchase price of electric locomotive, purchase price of diesel locomotive (referenced from CCP) and websites; CO2 emissions prices are taken from references of (Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment) The data on capital source and investment divergence on Saigon Nha Trang route: conversion coefficient to base year , taken from pre-feasibility studies of domestic and foreign consulting organizations 4.3.2 Specific benefits of electric traction a, The regenerative electric braking benefit of electric traction From ton km total weight of locomotives, determine fuel consumption according to norm, and convert fuel from kg to liter,convert fuel into electricity expected to be stable in years (2008 ÷ 2031) is 2,536 VND/kWh The percentage of current generated when using the electric brake is low (2%) compared to the total power consumption The results are calculated for the years: 2028 is 10,472bil VND, 2029 is 10,52bil VND; in 2030 is 10,534bil VND; in 2031 is 10,541bil VND b, Energy efficiency 18 In order to quantify the saving efficiency of electric traction compared with diesel power, it is necessary to consider the general efficiency of two types of coal and hydroelectric power sources; According to: with hydroelectric power source, the total efficiency of electric traction (25%÷70%), is higher than the total efficiency of diesel traction (33% ÷38%); with the above range of efficiency levels, choose 50% electric traction efficiency; total efficiency of selected diesel traction 35.5%; so the total efficiency of electric traction over diesel is 14.5%; + From ton km total weight of passenger and cargo transport, with fuel consumption norm, and unit price for 01 liter of diesel oil (after converting from kg to liter); can be calculated as follows:2028: Fuel consumption: 20,940,125 liters, equivalent to 206,470,000 kWh; unit price of kWh 2,536 VND The year 2028 is 73,385bil VND; in 2029: 73,699bil VND; in 2030: 73,744bil VND; 2031 is: 73,78bil VND Total: 294,7bil VND.c, Benefits of not emitting CO2.Calculation basis: fuel consumption of diesel locomotives calculated in the above table, emission level 3189 CO2 (g/kg), currency conversion: 1USD = 23,000 VND; calculated in 2028 is: 2,46bil VND; 2029 is 2,47bil VND; in 2030 is 2,472bil VND; in 2031 is 2,473bil VND d, Benefits of not having to pay environmental protection tax (collected through diesel price).Diesel oil pays environmental protection tax at the rate of 2,000 VND/liter; on the basis of the calculated fuel consumption of passenger and cargo ships Annual benefit result: In 2028, it is 41,88bil VND; in 2029 is 42,41bil VND; in 2030 is 42,13bil VND; in 2031 is 42,16bil VND.e, Benefits of not using fuel-based lubricating oil.Already consumed fuel for diesel locomotives (as calculated above), Based on the consumption norm of lubricating oil by fuel (4%) and unit price of lubricating oil (30,000 VND/liter); calculate the results, 2028 is 25,12bil VND; in 2029 is 25,26bil VND; in 2030 is 25,27bil VND; 2031 is 25,29 bil VND f, Benefit from fuel transportation savings for diesel locomotives With the fuel transportation distance from the place of sale to the place where the fueling station for the locomotive is located is 181.5 km (here, this distance is temporarily calculated as 50% of the total distance between the two locomotive fueling stations) The freight cost is 500 VND/tkm The result calculated for 2028 is 1,52bil VND; in 2029 is 1,53bil VND; in 2030 is 1,53bil VND; in 2031 is 1,53bil VND.g, Benefits from locomotive investment The purchase price of an electric locomotive is only 70% of the price of a diesel locomotive of the same capacity; with the results calculated the number of locomotives needed for each year with the unit purchase price of locomotives Estimated investment in traction power: unit price of 01 locomotive with capacity of 5000 kW is 1.4 million USD 2028 investment in 15 locomotives is 21 million US; similarly calculated for 2029 is 1.4 million USD, in 2030 is 1.4 million USD, in 2031 is 5.6 million USD billion USD diesel locomotive; 2029 is 9,2bil VND; in 2030 is 9,2bil VND; in 2031 is 36,8 bil VND h,Benefits due to saving kilometers running between 02 locomotive repair periods Total mileage of locomotive (MS) passenger train + freight train in a year (2028): MS = (l1 ×365) × nt1 + (l2 ×365) × nt2 (km) (4.6) 19 In which, the number of days in the year is 365 days; l 1; l2 is the running distance of locomotives of types and 2; nt1, nt2 number of trains corresponding to the running distance of the train type (called 1, 2, 3); From the train operation plan, the mileage of trains in 2028 is 3,598,170 km; According to the regulations on repair kilometers, the number of repair grades can be calculated; With the unit price of the repair levels, the repair cost in 2028 is 27.0 billion VND; in 2029, due to running all 03 types of passenger trains (whole, section, short), the benefit is 33.15 billion VND; in 2030 is 39.3 billion VND; in 2031 is 45.45 billion VND k, Benefits of not having to invest in and repair fuel supply equipment At the main station of the locomotive, the estimated investment cost is 5bil VND; Substation of locomotive, estimated investment cost is 3bil VND; Initial investment is 8bil VND; Annual maintenance and repair costs are temporarily calculated (according to reality) equal to 15% of investment costs; Thus, these expenditures are: in 2028, an investment of bil VND; In 2029 repair cost: 15% × = 1,2 bilVND; in 2030 is 1,2 bil VND, 2031 is 1,2 bil VND m, Benefits from not having to fuel the locomotive, collecting waste oil from the locomotive The number of employees distributing and collecting waste oil from locomotives at points in Saigon and Nha Trang is 24 employees, with an income of employee 15 million VND/month The cost in 2028 is 4,32 bil VND; the year 2029 is 4,32 bil VND; 2030 4,32 bil VND; 2031 is 4,32 bil VND n, Benefits from generator investment 2028: use 20 generators of type 480 kVA; and generators of 300 kVA type, the cost of MPD is 500 million dong for the 480 kVA machine, and 250 million dong for the 300 kVA machine Calculation results: in 2028 is 13 bil VND; In the years 2029, 2030, 2031, due to the increase in ram of wagons, the number of generators that must be invested more, calculated in 2029 is 2,25 bil VND; in 2030 is 2,25 bil VND; 2031 is 2,25 bil VND o, Benefits of not having to supply fuel, collect waste oil for MPD on passenger cars At stations supplying diesel fuel for generators and collecting waste oil, it is necessary to arrange workers with supply points (Saigon, Nha Trang), the number of workers supplying fuel is 7, the monthly salary for each labor, the cost of the years can be calculated: Benefits in 2028 are: 1,26bil VND; in 2029 is 1,26 bil VND; in 2030 is 1,26 bil VND; in 2031 is 1,26 bil VND p, Benefits from saving on generator repair on passenger trains In 2028, the number of pairs of passenger trains used every day of the year and the travel time of passenger trains, the number of operating hours of the passenger train can be calculated, as follows: (1) The total operating time of the passenger train is 40 hours/day, (2) Passenger train section is 51 hours/day; (3) Long Thanh airport passenger ship 242 minutes/day equivalent to 4.2 hours/day The total operating hours of these types of ships is: 36,500 hours Based on the repair unit price of each level and number of repair levels in hours; Calculating the cost of repairing the power plant in 2028 is 0,626 bil VND; in 2029 is 0,8 bil VND; in 2030 is 0,97 bil VND; in 2031 is 1,142 bil VND 20 q, Benefits of saving passengers' travel timeTo calculate the travel time savings of passengers, first calculate the time saving hours of each type of passenger train (Long Thanh aircraft carrier does not count because the distance is 35 km, the time is short).(1) For passenger trains, in 2029: Technical speed 140 km/h, technical running time 156 minutes, travel time 196 minutes, compared with 2028 (220 minutes) saving 24 minutes; save the years: 2030 is 20 minutes, 2031 is 26 minutes (2) For passenger trains in the segment: 2029: Technical speed of 140 km/h, technical running time of 156 minutes, travel time of 206 minutes, saving 24 minutes compared to the previous year (230 minutes) The same calculation for 2030 saves 20 minutes, 2031 is 20 minutes Benefit calculation: In 2029: is 4,545,240 hours;The benefits of saving travel time for passengers are: 4,545,240 hk hours × 18,378 VND = 83,332,420,800 VND; In 2030 it is 84,472 bilVND, in 2031 it is 130,35 bil VND r, Save time of goods on the road (fast increase capital turnover)The parking time of freight trains at each station is 123 minutes, at stations of Long Thanh, Tuy Phong, Phan Thiet, Thap Cham, and other stops is 23 minutes When shortening train time (due to speed increase), the calculated saving time in 2029 is 35 minutes per trip with a train weight of 1525 tons Value of goods per trip: 18.91 billion VND Assume that the company's working capital turnover time is days (96 hours) = 5,760 minutes; The enterprise saved working capital of 18.91 billion VND/(5,760 minutes × 35 minutes) = 124,322 million VND/trip; per day (6 trips), the amount of capital in a year is: 272.26 billion VND;per day (6 trips), the amount of capital;in a year is: 272.26 billion VND; ; with bank interest rate (6%/year), savings in 2029 will be 16,336 billionVND; in 2030 is 12,133 billion VND; 2031 is 19,137 billion VND i, Benefit from saving the time of locomotive entering the fuel receiving depot As a result of railways using electric traction, electric locomotives save 6% of total operating time by not having to go to the depot to receive fuel If the depreciation period of an electric locomotive is 20 years, one hour of the machine is worth VND 182,650; benefit in 2028 is 1,120,809,000 VND; in 2029 is 1127,550,000 VND in 2030 is 1360,811,000 VND; 2031 is 1600,000,000 VND Benefits of 17 quantified indicators over the years: Table 4.19 Summary of quantified benefits by years and periods No Year (Phase) Benefits (VND) USD exchange (1USD = 23.000 VND) 2028 360.094.663.000 15.656.289 2029 324.071.514.000 14.090.065 2030 331.237.184.000 14.401.616 2031 421.501.254.000 18.326.141 1.436.904.615.000 62.474.111 (62,5 triệu USD Total 4.4 The benefits of electric traction associated with the problem of optimizing investment in electrification of Saigon - Nha Trang railways 21 4.4.1 Describe the optimal investment problem Let i, j be the states of the investment period; when investing in state i to state j, state j is better than state i Let K be the investment cost, of the times of the periods (i, j).After investing to increase the allowable speed of the route from V o to Vi, to further increase it to Vj we have the formula Kij =K0 j – K0 i K i j Sj qk k 1 w 1 Aw d w Si qk k 1 w 1 Aw dw which means Where: Kt,i,j is the total cost to switch from state i to state j at period t, (t = 1,2, ,N), Aw Investment volume by category w at point k dw : Unit price for item w; qk : Number of investment items to raise state i to state j of point k ;Si, Sj: Number of points to invest to raise to level i or j of the whole route Si qk m rt Sj qk Ad A d L Di min ETD = t w w w w i ( E ) t1 k w k w i1 tN (4.7) When quantifying ((m) the benefit of electric traction (ΔL), adding maintenance cost; (Di) and considering the conversion coefficients, price slippage, the thesis proposes a formula to determine the objective function ETD is the total cost of the phase transition plan in the entire investment period, as follows: N is the number of stages of the investment plan, ;1/ ( 1+ΔE)t : The currency conversion coefficient to the original time.rt : is the slippage coefficient ΔE : The cost conversion factor for the year of calculation is usually taken as 0.08 for permanent works However, in the problem of investing to complete in a short time, For simplicity, it can be ignored when considering the investment capital conversion coefficient in the options The value of the ETD objective function must be the smallest of all possible transitions.Binding conditions: The total investment cost Kt,i,j of each stage when switching state is not greater than the mobilizing capacity of each period K t ,and not greater than the total investment capital of all stages (1) Total cost of maintenance The maintenance cost is not greater than the allowable source to be balanced annually (2) Ensure the train speed of the infrastructure in state j > the train speed of the infrastructure in state i, which also means the throughput capacity of the infrastructure in state j is always greater than the throughput capacity of the infrastructure in state i 4.4.2 The data to solve the problem The respective investment stages (1) t0 = year 2028, corresponding to speed V0 = 120 km/h; t1 = year 2029, corresponding to speed V1 = 140 km/h.(2) t2 = year 2030, the speed V2= 160 km/h ; t3 = year 2031, corresponding to speed V3 = 200 km/h Table 4.20 Investment capital in stages No Investment Items Total Initial Remaining Phase Phase Phase 100 100 investments Railway tracks 1.100 1.000 22 Construction Information & signals Station locomotives, passenger, goods Land clearance Electricity projects Total 3.300 1.150 1.900 1.000 3.100 850 1000 600 200 300 9.000 400 70 50 500 100 60 100 200 150 100 150 200 150 2.000 3.500 14.000 2.000 2.400 10.970 1.100 3.030 350 1070 350 960 400 1000 Source: Staged investment scenario, compiled and calculated by the author - Limited investment capital every year (with an annual maintenance cost of $10 million): 2028 = $1,070 million, 2029 = $960 million, 2030 = $1,000 million; 2031 = $1,050 million Investment plans in different stages Phase 1: To increase the speed from 120 km/h to 140 km/h, there are options,with a total investment of ;$ 1,200 million ; $ 1,100 million ;$ 1,070 million ; Phase 2: To increase the speed from 140 km/h to 160 km/h, there are options, with Phase 3: To increase the speed from 160 km/h to 200 km/h, there are options,, with a total investment of ;$ 1,200 million ;$ 1,000 million 4.4.3 Solving the optimal investment problem Investment until 2028 is E0 = $10,970 million, for convenience of calculation, the thesis calculates each cluster of parameters of the problem, then gathers them together, which are parameters: (optimal investment level for each period) , the benefits of using traction have been quantified for each period (table 4.19) Since the periods are years, the conversion of costs to the base year is not considered; price slippage is not considered: investment benefits, economic benefits maintenance and investment costs.Choose the method to solve the problem in the opposite way From 2031 onwards, no investment is required (average train speed has reached 200 km/h); Each year, each option has 10 million USD in maintenance cost Benefits of using traction power in 2028 will be brought about by investments in previous stages In 2030, invest in increasing the speed from 160 km/h to 200 km/h; Consider the total investment and maintenance costs of the two options: Method (2030) =$ 1,210 million ; Min ($1210 million +0) = $1,210 million -18.3 million (benefit of using SKD) = $1,191.7 million Method (2030) = 1,010 million USD; Min ($1,010 million +0) = $1,010 million -18.3 million (electrical traction benefit) = $991.7 million.The optimal solution is Method (2030) with a total investment of $991.7 million In 2029, consider the total investment of 03 options: Method (2029): Min ($ 1,010 million + $ 991.7 million) = $ 2001.7 million - $14.4 million = $ 1,987.6 million Method (2029): Min ($970 million + $ 991.7 million) = $1,960 million $14.4 million = $1,945.6 million Method (2029): Min ($ 990 million + $ 991.7) = $ 1,981.7 million - $14.4 million = $ 1,967.3 million Choose the optimal solution out of options: Min ($1,987.6 million ; $1,945.6 million; $1,967.3 million ) = $1,945.6 million (which is option (2029)); In 2028, consider the total investment of three options.Method (2028): Min ($1,210 million +$1,945.6 million ) = $3,155.6 million - $14.1 million = $3,141.5 million Method (2028) Min ($1,110 million + $1,945.6 million) = $3,055.6 million -$14.1 million = $3,041.5 million Method (2028) ;Min ($1,080 million +1,945.6 million) = $3,025.6 million - $14.1 23 million = $3,011.5 million : Choose the optimal solution of the alternatives in this stage: Min ($3,141.5 million; $3,041.5 million; $3,011.5 million) = $3,011.5 million selected as Method (2028) This is also the optimal total investment of the stages.The results of selecting the optimal investment options according to the options taking into account the benefits of using electric traction for the objective function are: ETD = $3.011.5 million Total investment capital of the Saigon – Nha Trang UMRT line is (E0 is the total initial investment capital) Eo + ETD = $ 10,970 million + $ 3,011.5 million = $ 13,981.5 million CONCLUSIONS, RECOMMENDATIONS (i) Conclusion Investment in railway electrification using electric traction, is a development trend of countries because of its advantages; The world is entering an era of sustainable and global economic development, in which environmental protection, increased labor productivity, and optimal use of natural resources are common goals The railway network of our country has existed for hundreds of years now, the infrastructure is still outdated, not at the technical level, fossil fuels used for traction are still the mainstay, competitiveness in modes of transport is still limited The research and investment in the North-South high-speed railway has been studied by domestic and foreign consultants for many years and has been approved by the Government of the railway network master plan for the period of 2021 - 2030, with a vision to 2020 2050.Electric traction goes hand in hand with the electrification of railways, for the benefits of which the socioeconomic and mining businesses use with far greater potential than diesel traction Stemming from those requirements, in the thesis the author focuses on perfecting the theoretical basis of the economic scientific basis of using electric traction on Vietnam railways and making new contributions: First: Systematize and clarify the theoretical and economic basis for the use of electric traction on Vietnamese railways.Second: Proposing and perfecting the theoretical framework in building an economic scientific basis using electric traction on VNR: (1) Theoretical foundations of economics, economics, macroeconomics and microeconomics; concept of economic mechanism, theoretical framework Theoretical foundations of quantitative management Use energy economically and efficiently Theoretical foundations of environmental protection and sustainable development Electric traffic theory: Concept of electric traction, railway electrification system, components of electrified railway The voltage levels used for traction The economic and technical system of using diesel traction and the limitations of diesel traction in railway transport operations.(2) Theoretical basis for improving train running speed, increasing throughput capacity of the route (3) Inadequacies in using diesel traction on Vietnamese railways Third: Analysis and assessment of the impact on the environment and sustainable development of the use of fossil fuels in diesel traction on Vietnamese railways, such as: impact of locomotive emissions, impact of waste oil locomotive to the 24 environment of land, water, air, animal, plant and human life.Fourth: Proposing and perfecting an economic model that identifies the benefits of using electric traction on Vietnamese railways.Fifth: Calculating the benefits of using electric traction on the Saigon - Nha Trang electrified high-speed railway.Sixth: Integrating the benefits of using electric traction into the optimal investment problem by phase, the Saigon Nha Trang electrified railway line - The thesis has researched on the ability to provide and secure energy for the use of traction power on Vietnamese railways In the future, the use of renewable energy sources will be more stable and safer The results of the thesis research will contribute to the research process of investment in RRT using traction on VNR (ii) Request a,Proposing to the State to soon approve the pre-feasibility study report on the investment of the North-South axial resettlement railway line; Prioritize the early construction of two sections of the Hanoi-Vinh electrified railway line and SaigonNha Trang b,Recommendation to Vietnam Railway Corporation Actively develop a plan to propose to the Government on the implementation of research on electrified railways, using electric traction on northern lines There is a roadmap to gradually reduce diesel traction with low power and high fuel consumption (iii) Limitations of the thesis Although the research objectives have been achieved, there are still limitations in this study, which is not fully quantifying the benefits that electric traction brings with the models proposed to be completed in chapter (iv) The next research direction of the thesis Based on the research results of the thesis, continue to study other benefits when using electric traction can bring PUBLISHED SCIENTIFIC WORKS I Articles published in the journal Transport 1.1 Authors (2021) "Reducing environmental impact caused by the operation of railway vehicles" Transport Magazine, April 2021, page 134 1.2.The authors (2021) "Scientific and economic basis of the use of electric traction on Vietnamese railways and the problem of optimal investment in railway electrification" Journal of Transport, May 2021, page 158 II Participating in scientific research projects and topics 2.1 Project on environmental impact assessment of rolling stock waste oil and pilot solution for collection and treatment Participated in a scientific research project at the Ministry of Transport, 2012 ... The total investment cost Kt,i,j of each stage when switching state is not greater than the mobilizing capacity of each period K t ,and not greater than the total investment capital of all stages... quality, content of pollutant - Legal basis for environmental protection in Vietnam: (1) Legal documents approved by the National Assembly (2) Environmental protection tax 2.6.2 Composition and... National Railway 3.2 Sustainability in fuel supply for diesel locomotives 3.2.1 Collecting environmental protection tax through fuel prices According to the environmental protection tax schedule, each
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