Cong nghiep to Viet Nam khung hoang tai chinh va suy thoai kinh te toan c^u Trin t& Lao Ddng sd 119 ihdng vita qua, cdc nhd phdn lich cd nhiing lo nggi vi su be tdc cua ngdnh cdng nghiip d td Viet Nam vd cho rdng; muc tiiu "ndi dia hod" chiin luqc phdt triin din ndm 2010, tdm nhin 2020 khdng mdy hy vong Vai luqng d td han 800 nghin dang luu hdnh tren dia bdn cd nuac vd cuoc tranh lugn vi ddng xe chii luc cdn chua ngd ngd, khdng it lo nggi duqc bqc Iq vi gidc ma cdrig nghiep td Viet^ Nam cdn qud xa v&i Di cd cdi nhin khdi quat vi vdn di ndy, bdi viit di cdp den xu thi phdt Iriin cdng nghiip d td thi gi&i, kinh nghiem tie cdc qudc gia khu vuc vd thuc Irgng cdng nghiip d td nu&c nhd \ Xu thi phat trien ciia nganh cong nghiep to the gioi Tfl sy ddi cfla chiec xe chay xang dau tien tren tbi gidi (nam 1885) den nay, cdng nghiep d td toan cau da cd sy phat trien than ky Nhung nam 1890, cdng nghiep san xuat d td dugc hinh tbanb d cac nudc Tay Au; den 1896 phat trien sang My, nam 1903 bang Ford td chuc san xuat tren quy md cdng nghiep va thap nien 1950, Bdngl: 1960 nganh d td da phat trien manh, dat san lugng II trieu chiec vao nam 1970 Sau giai doan phat triln nay, san xuat d td the gidi da chuyin sang lien kit, thiet lap nhflng lien minh tao nhung tap doan cdng nghiep Idn, boat ddng tren pham vi toan cau vdi sd lugng san xuit cfl 10 nam lai tang them hon 10 trieu chiec San lugng xe san xuat 10 nam gan day dugc the hitn irong Bdng I San lu'OTig to the gioi giai doan 1999 - 2008 Dan vi; Trieu chiec Nam 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 San lugng 39,76 41,22 39,8 41,4 42,0 44,6 46,9 49,9 54,9 52,9 Nguon: OICA Corresspondents Survey, 2009 Nam 2009, mac dfl khiing boang tai cbinh va suy thoai kinh te toan cau cd nhiing tac ddng bat Igi, nhung theo dy bao, lugng xe san xuat van d mflc tren 52 Uieu cbilc/nam P u Qudc Thinh, 2009] td va san xuat d td da trd mgt nganh cdng nghiep chfl yeu, nhflng nam diu thi ky XXI, sd d td sfl dyng toan ciu da vugt qua 660 trieu chiec, nghTa.la cu 8.ngudi dan thi gidi da cd mgt d td; lugng d td san xuit nhung nam gin day dudng nhu da dn dinb d mflc tren 50 trieu chiec/nam My va Nhat Ban ludn la nhung nudc 72 san xuat d td dung dau the gidi vdi san lugng mdi nudc chiem khoang 20% Nudc My da lim banh tren 200 trieu xe, chiem 30% tdng sd xe the gidi Tai Nhat Ban, cti 10 lao ddng cd mgt ngudi tham gia tryc tiep va gian tiep vao san xuat d to, ty le d My la 1/7 [Bg Cdng nghiep 2002] Theo cac nha phan tich, mdt xe du lich hien dai cd tu 20 nghin den 30 nghin ehi tiet Thdng ke cbo thay, cdng righiep d td the gidi tieu thu khoang 77% Iugng cao su ty nhien, 67% chi, -Nhdng van de KINH TE VA C H I N H TRj T H ^ ' G I C J I Sd (160) 2009 Cong nghiep d td Viet Nam khung hoang tai chinh 64% lugng gang ren, 50% cao su tdng hgp, 25% lugng thuy tinh va tren 20% vat lieu ban dan Cdng nghiep d td duge coi la ngudn dgng luc phat trien nhflng nganh cdng nghiep khac, nganh da sfl dyng khoang 40% tdng sd may cong cu san xuat cdng nghiep Thyc te ciing cbo thay, cdng nghiep d td the gidi da gdp phan quyet dinh de thflc day phat trien nhieu nganh cdng nghiep khac La nganh san xuat dugc md dun hoa tfl khung, vd xe den eac bg phan cfla dgng co, hop so, cdng nghiep d td ddi hdi nhieu dang cdng nghe tfl CO ban nhu co kbi, luyen kim den nhung cdng nghe cao nbu dien tu, tin bgc Khdng cd nba may nao cd the san xuat hang van loai chi tiet cho mdt ddng xe Do cac bg phan, chi tiet cfla d td dugc tieu chuan boa cao, thong nhat dflng chung cho nhieu ddng xe, lam cho san pham, bd phan va chi tiet dugc chuyen mon boa san xuat hang loat rat Idn It cd loai d to nao ma cac chi tiet, bd phan cbi san xuat d mgt nudc va nba san xuat cfla mdt nudc cung cap Ngay nay, san xuat d td da mang nang tinh toan cau, bi chi phdi ldn bdi nhflng tap doan xuyen qudc gia Cdng nghiep d td the gidi bien CO ngudn vdn luan chuyen tren 2.600 ty USD vdi trieu viec lam tryc tiep, mdi viee lam tryc tiep lai hd trg them it nhat viec lam gian tiep khac Tbeo dd, cd khoang 50 trieu lao ddng dang dya vao cdng nghiep d td [Tran Thuy 2009] Trong nganh d td, thi trudng va phan khuc thi trudng ludn la bai gay sflc ep cfla nhieu nudc Idn; day cflng la "con tin cd gid'' de Bdng 2: giai quyet mau thuan kinh te, chinh tri chua giai quyet dugc bang thuong lugng Nhiing nam dau thien nien ky mdi, cac qudc gia khu vyc Bac My va Tay Au da dat binb quan tfl 1,7 den 2,5 ngudi cd mgt d td; khu vyc chau A, tai An Do 245 ngudi mdi cd mgt d td, Viet Nam 180, Philippin 118 va Trung Qudc 117 ngudi/xe Dudng nhu thi trudng d td tai Au - My da bao boa, chau A dugc dy bao vdi mfl'c tang trudng binh quan 7%/nam, vdi thi trucmg tiem nang la Trung Qudc va An Do [Bg Cdng nghiep 2002] Trong xu the phat trien toan cau, cac tap doan d td Idn phan chia lai tbi phan tbeo budng dan xen vdi nhimg thoa thuan, hiep dinh thuong mai mang tinh qudc gia dong thdi vdi viec chuyen dich manh nha may san xuat sang nhung nudc dang phat trien, nham tan dung nhan cdng va khai thac thi trudng tieu thu tai chd Trong 10 nam gan day, nganh san xuat d td the gidi da cd nhieu bien dgng viec dau tu hgp tac va chuyen dich nba may san xuat de hinh nganb cdng nghiep d td d nhung nudc dang phat trien Tren thyc te , thi trudng d td the gidi bi chi phdi va nam giu bdi sau tap doan ldn la Ford G.M, Daimler Chrysler, Toyota, Volkswagen (VW) va Renault Vao nu'a cudi thap nien 1990, khoang 82% san lugng d td the gidi sau tap doan san xuat; tbi phin vao nam 1999 cfla GM chiem 24,3% toan thi gidi, Daimler Cluysler 15%, Ford 15,3%, Toyota gin 10% va VW tren 9,1% Thi phin d td the gidi va sau tap doan Idn giai doan 1995 1999 the hien Bdng Thj phin to the gidi giai doan 1995 - 1999 Dan vi; Nghtn chiec 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Tdng sd xe 46.782 49.289 50.678 49.803 52.847 Sau tap doan 39.346 41.173 42.140 37.569 43.594 84,3 83,6 83,2 75,3 82,5 Ty le % Nguon: Bd Cdng nghiip Viet Nam, 2002 NhOng van de KINH TE VA CHINH TRj THE GIOI Sd (160) 2009- 73 Cdng nghiep d td Vigt Nam khung hoang tai chinh Do nhu cau phd cap d td, dac biet la d nhiing thi trudng mdi ndi, Quy Tien te Qudc te (IMF) da dy bao lugng d td toan cau den nam 2050 se len khoang ty chiec Nhieu phan tich cho rang, trat ty mdi nganh d td se dugc djiih hinh lai sau khflng hoang tai chinh vdi bdn dai gia Idn la Toyota, Honda, Volk'wagen va Ford [Trin Thuy, 2009] Trong khflng hoang tai cbinh va suy thoai kinh te toan cau, cdng nghiep d td phai ganh chiu nhflng hau qua nang ne Tai My, cae tap doan Idn nhu GM, Ford va Chrysler deu nguy CO pha san, hang tram nba may hoac bang xe duge rao ban Ngugc lai, cdng nghiep d td d nhieu nudc dang phat trien van cd co try vflng Trung Qudc da vuon len trd thi trudng d td hang dau the gidi vao nhiing tbang dau nam 2009; An Do da kha cdng vdi nhung ddng xe dugc san xuat bang cdng nghe ban dia, dua san lugng san xuat hang nam len tren trieu chiec; edng nghiep d td Thai Lan cflng phat trien manh, vuon len nam nhdm 15 nudc san xuat hang dau thi gidi, vdi san lugng 1,5 trieu xe/nam Dudi tac ddng cfla suy thoai kinh tl, nganh cdng nghiep d td thi gidi da phai ddi phd bing chien lugc tai eau trflc budng vao san xuit nhflng ddng xe tilt kiem nhien lieu, gia ca phfl bgp va chuyen dich tbi trudng tieu thy sang chau A Theo gidi nghien cfln, tai ba trung tam ldn la d Bic My, Tay Au va Nhat Ban, cac tap doan d td xuyen qudc gia da di theo xu thi hgp tac toan dien, sfl dyng Igi thi vdn va edng nghe cfla nhung don vi vien nhim giam bdt ngudn vdn diu tu dang bi tham hut Hiu bit eac tap doan deu thyc hien chiln lugc "gidm gid" hudng vao giam thilu mgi chi phi, bgp ly boa san xuat de giam tdi 30% gia san phim Nhieu doanh nghiep da cbo ddi nhflng ddng xe tiet kiem nhien lieu nhu Nano tieu thy tfl den lit nhien lieu/100 km; san xuit nhung loai xe gia re phyc vy nhu ciu ngudi dan cd thu nhap thip vdi gia cbi tfl 2.000 USD din 3.000 USD [Du Qudc Tbinb, 2009] 74 Kinh nghiem rut tir mot so niro'c khu virc Ngoai Trung Qudc va An Do la nhung nudc phat trien manh cdng nghiep d td, tai khu vyc ASEAN: Thai Lan, Malaysia va Indonesia cung la nhirng nudc cd each di rieng md mang, phat trien nganb cdng nghiep quan trgng 2.1 Cong nghiep to Trung Quoc Trung Qudc timg coi d td la mgt bdn try cot quan trgng nbat nen cdng nghiep Phat trien cdng nghiep d td da duge thyc hien theo budng: vfla xay dyng nhung lien doanh vdi nhirng bang ldn tren the gidi, vfla phat trien nganh cdng nghiep vdi 100% vdn nudc Do tam quan trgng cfla nganh, td chuc lien doanh vdi nudc ngoai, phia Tmng Qudc gdp vdn it nhat % , ddi tac nudc ngoai 49%, chu khdng phai ty le 30/70 cfla Viet Nam va mdt sd nudc; day chinh la mdt net dac thfl cfla cdng nghiep d td Trung Qudc Bang chinh sach cfla minh, Tnmg Qudc khdng mudn bien dat nudc tbanh co sd san xuit cfla nhflng hang d td nudc ngoai, ma thflc day mdt nganb che tao d td nudc, vdi myc tieu den nam 2010, trd nudc san xuat d td chfl yeu cfla the gidi vdi thuong hieu rieng Cbinh sach phat trien cdng nghiep d td Trung Qudc dugc cdng bd tu thang nam 1994, da quy dinh cy the viee lien doanh vdi ddi tac nudc ngoai de che tao d td tai Trung Qudc Tbeo do, ddi tac nudc ngoai phai cd patent san phim va thuong bieu da dang ky, phai tu phat triln san pbim va cdng nghe che tao, cd mang ludi ban hang va kha nang tai chinh Idn Cac lien doanh phai cd ke hoach xuat khiu san phim va ddi tac nudc ngoai mudn lya chgn Iinh kien thi phia nudc cung cd quyen quylt dinh tuong duang [Pham Nggc Hai, 2009] Sau nliung cbinh sach phat triln d td ban hanh cd hieu lye, san xuit d td vdi thuong hieu Trung Qude da lien tyc gia tang Theo diiu tra cfla OICA, vao nam 2006, lugng xe san xuit tai Trung Qudc da vugt qua 8,86 trieu chile, nam 2008 lugng xe san xuat, lip rap va ban Uen tbi trudng da dat 10 trieu Trung Qudc bien cd 10 hang xe dflng danh sach 50 hang bang diu tbi gidi vdi san lugng san xuat tu 65 nghin din 690 nghin xe/nam -NhOng van de KINH Tfi'VA CHINH TRj THEGldl So (160) 2009 Cdng nghigp d to Vidt Nam khung hoang tai chinh Trong khung hoang tai chinh va suy thoai kinh te toan cau, dl ctiu nganh cdng nghiep d td, Trung Qude da khdng ap dung each lam gidng My la bom tien vao cac hang che tao, ma tim each khuyen khich ngudi tieu dflng thdng qua tm dai thue va trg gia Theo do, tu thang nam 2009, Chinh phfl da thue tieu thy tfl 10% xudng cdn 5% ddi vdi ddng xe cd dgng co dung tich tu 1,6 lit (1.6) trd xudng, nham thflc diy phat trien nhiing loai xe kich thudc nhd, tiet kiem nhien lieu cao Sy gia tang doanh sd phan khuc thi trudng xe hoi co nhd da giup Trung Qude vugt qua cdt mde quan trgng Lan dau tien lieh sfl, sd xe ban tren thi trudng thang nam 2009 da len 73,5 van chiec, bd xa nudc My vdi 65,7 van, de trd thi trudng tieu thy Idn nhat toan cau [Kieu Oanh, 2009] Trung Qudc dugc bilt den vdi ddng xe Cherry Q.Q gia re khoang 4.000 USD, cdn ddng xe Nano cfla hang Tata An Do dugc trinh lang vdi muc gia chi cd 2.500 USD Nhieu nhan dinb eho biet An Do hoan toan cd co sd de dua nhiing ddng xe cd sflc canh tranh cao so vdi cdng nghiep d td Trung Qudc, bdi hg cd dugc nhung nha san xuat cd kba nang cat giam ehi phi tdi da bang lao dgng va cdng nghe ban dia Vdi nhung ket qua nghien ctiu cdng, cdng nghiep d td An Do cd co sd de che tao nhung ddng xe tiet kiem nguyen lieu den timg chi tiet nhd, cd the giam dugc chi phi tfl ghe ngdi, vai bgc eho den nhiing linh kien, phu tung tinh bang dudng rieng 2.3 Thdi Lan - cu&ng quoc o to & Dong Nam A Khac vdi nhieu nudc hd trg nganh Cdng nghiep d td Thai Lan dugc bat dau tfl cdng nghiep d td, Chinh phfl Trung Qude da gin 50 nam trudc, vao nam 1961, Cbinh phfl khdng hudng vao cac hang nudc ngoai ma tap Hoang gia lap Cdng ty Cdng nghiep O td, tmng cho nhiing nba san xuat nudc Hang bat dau tfl viee lap rap phyc vy nhu cau tieu xe ngi dia la co sd san xuat nhting ddng xe ddng dung nudc CO nhd, dd chlnh la ddi tugng dugc hudng Igi Ciing nhu nhieu nude khu vyc, cdng nhieu nhat cfla viec giam thue Cflng vdi giam nghiep d td Thai Lan da trai qua nhieu giai doan thue, Chinh phfl da no Iyc ho trg cho nha tieu thy tren dia ban ndng thdn, ehi 730 trieu USD trg gia, phat triln Khdi dau la nhap khau xe nguyen giup ndng dan thay the xe ba banh bang xe tai nhd chiec va xay dyng nhiing nha may lap rap (tu cd dung tich dgng co dudi 1,3 lit Cflng tfl day, 1961 din 1968); nhung nam 1969 - 1977, Nha nhieu hang ndi dia da hudng vao phat trien nhiing nude kiem soat chat cbe cdng nghiep d td, bat dong xe tai nhd cflng vdi viec md rdng mang ludi dau ndi dia hoa; vao giai doan tang cudng ngi dia hoa (1978 - 1986), Cbinh phu cam nhap va ban hang va dich vu tren dia ban ndng thdn ban cbe nhap xe nguyen chiec, nang cao ty le 2.2 Cong nghiep to An Dp - mot cdch di riengndi dia boa, phat trien nhanh cdng nghiep pbu Tren ban cdng nghiep d td the gidi, An trg va cac nha cung cap Tfl 1987 den 1992, Do da trd mdt nhdm 10 nudc bang Thai Lan bit diu xuat kbau d td cflng vdi tang dau, vdi lugng xe san xuat hang nam tfl 2,3 den cudng kiem soat chat cbe chat lugng, ndi Idng 2,5 trieu chiec Khae vdi nhieu doanb nghiep va ty boa san xuat Tu 1992 trd di la giai Tnmg Qude, An Do nhan chuyen giao cdng doan xuit khau, thyc bien chuyen mdn boa cao nghe tu nhiing ddi tac nudc ngoai va phy thudc xu the hdi nhap va toan eau boa vao viec mua day chuyen san xuat cfla cac hang Chinh saeh lip rap d td cfla Thai Lan dugc nudc ngoai Nhflng nam qua, cdng nghiep d td cdng bd vao nam 1972, da quy dinh cac bang An Do da danh nhieu cdng sue cbo nghien ctiu lip rap phai sfl dung 25%) linh kien ndi dia ddi va phat trien cdng nghe rieng cfla minh, khdng vdi xe va 15%) ddi vdi xe tai, xe buyt it cdng ty den da lam chfl dugc cdng nghe Nhim phat trien cdng nghiep d td nude, san xuat quan trgng Gidi phan ticb danh gia, Chinh phfl da thu hflt dau tu nudc ngoai bang khoang 90%) bd phan cfla ddng xe Tata da dugc viee ap dyng mflc thue nhap khau xe nguyen thuc hien bing nhung cdng nghe An Do ty phat chile rit cao Tfl nam 1978, tang ty le ndi dia boa, cim nhap khau nhung ddng xe san xuat triln [Kim Anh, 2009] NhOng van de KINH TE VA C H I N H TRj THE Gl6l So (160) 2009- 75 Cdng nghigp d td Viet Nam khiing hoang tai chinh nudc va danh uu dai ldn cbo nhirng co sd san xuit sfl dyng linh kien phy timg, dgng co, hop sd san xuat nudc Bang nd lye cfla ca nudc, vao dau thien nien ky mdi, Thai Lan da ed 17 co sd san xuat, lap rap d td vdi nang Iyc tren trieu xe/nam, do, 75% cd ngudn goc tfl Nbat Ban Tai tbi trudng d td Thai Lan, nhirng ddng xe thuong mai nhd, ca bin kep phat triln rit manh, chiem tu 55%) den 60%> san lugng d td nude trdng xe ehiem khoang 30% [Bd Cdng nghiep Viet Nam, 2002] Qua qua trinh phat trien cd the thay, su hd trg va xflc tien cdng nghiep d td cfla Chinh phu Thai Lan da cd nhung thay ddi dang ke theo tflng giai doan Thoat dau nang ve bao hg, sau tham gia AFTA, ehinh sacb dugc ty boa, nhieu tap doan da qudc gia nam co bdi md rgng dau tu phat trien cdng nghiep d td tai Thai Lan Trong thdi ky dau, thue nhap khau cdn cao va linh kien nhap khau bi cam, diu tu nude da dugc coi trgng, nhieu hang san xuat da dugc md rgng thdng qua chinh sach thay the nhap khiu Q giai doan thuang mai ty do, cac doanh nghiep san sang chi tao, Cbinh phfl da tap trung cbo nhting cym edng nghiep, tao CO hdi cho doanb nghiep mdi tham nhap sau vao nen kinh te va thi trudng toan ciu [Pham Nggc Hai, 2009] Tai mdt thi trudng cd nhieu loai xe, viee tap trung san xuat ddng xe chiln lugc dat doanh sd cao la viee lam can thilt Ddng xe chiln lugc Thai Lan lya chgn la ddng cd san lugng dfl Idn dl diu tu ndi dia hoa va ba gia tbanh san phim Tu thyc tl phat triln, hg da chgn Pick-up, mdt loai xe ban tai co nhd trgng tai tin, dl tap trung phat triln va thyc hien nhflng chinh sach hd trg qudc gia Chinh sach bd trg cbo ddng xe da dugc thyc hien tu nam 1967, thul ngi dia danb vao xe Pick-up dugc tm dai vdi muc thue suat 3%, thip ban din 10 lin so vdi nhung ddng xe khac Vdi uu dai nay, ddng xe Pick-up phat triln rit nhanh, dua Thai Lan trd mdt trung tam san xuit xe pick-up hang diu thi gidi [Duong Tfl Anh, 2009] 76 Tir chinh sach phat triln linh boat, gan 50 nam qua cdng nghiep d td Thai Lan da cd nhung budc tiln quan trgng, trd mgt cudng qudc xe hoi khu vyc Nam 2006, Thai Lan san xuit tren 1,23 trieu xe, thi trudng nudc tieu thy 682 nghin chiec, da dting vao nhdm 15 nudc san xuat d td hang dau the gidi Nam 2008, mac dfl khflng hoang tai chinh toan eau va nhung bien dgng chinh tri xay ra, song thi trudng tieu thy van d mtic 615 nghin xe va san xuit cdng nghiep d td dat tren 1,5 trieii chiec Mo hinh phat trien cdng nghiep to Thai Lan la mgt md hinh md cira tham gia vao chudi gia tri toan cau Vdi md hinh nay, cac nha san xuat d td va phy tung -vira la ngudi cung cap, vua la khach hang tieu thy Iinh kien, phu tung cua nhiing cdng ty nudc va d nuoc ngoai Tbeo dd, cdng nghiep phy trg dugc xay dung da san xuat tu chiec ldp, tam tham den cac chi tiet, cym ehi tiet tinh va cac he thdng dong bg bang nhung cdng nghe hien dai, thoa man mgi don hang [Vietime, 2007] Kinh nghiem cua Thai Lan cd the la mdt bai hgc quy phat trien cdng nghiep d td nudc nha 2.4 Indonesia v&i ngdnh cong nghiep to l&n thir Iihu vuc Sau Thai Lan, Indonesia la mgt thi trudng td Idn thfl tai Ddng Nam A Khac vgi Trung Qudc va Thai Lan, tai Indonesia cac hang chi tao td nudc ngoai da chilm tren 90%o thi phin d to ca nudc Dgng thai thi trudng d td cua mgt sd nudc khu vyc dugc thi hien d Bdng Phu hgp voi tap quan sir dung va viec sd hiru d td khdng dugc khuyin khich, khoang 80%) thi phari d td Indonesia thuge vl ddng xe thuong mai va xe da dung (MPV) Trong uu tien chinh sach, Nha nudc da hudng vao ddng xe da dung vdi thul suit 10% (thip hon lin so vdi xe ca nhan ch§ ngdi) nen din nay, Indonesia da ngi dia hoa va xuit khiu dugc mgt phan xe da dyng Ttay nhien, mgt Iugng lon eac nha chi tao va lip rap, san' xuit cho mgt thi truong khdng ldn, lai cd nhilu kilu dang xe cfla nhieu hang nen thi trudng thudng bi phan nhd, khd tieu ehuan boa, da can trd cac nha san xuat lap rap dat dugc quy md kinh te -NhOng viin de KINH T§'VA CHfNH TRj T H e ' c i d l Sd (160) 2009 Cong nghiep td Viet Nam khung hoang tai chinh Bdng 3: Thj tru-oTig to cua mot so nudc Dong Nam A thoi ky 1999 - 2008 Danvi; 1.000 chiic ^\^Nam 1999 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Thai Lan 218 533 587 703 682 650 615 Indonesia 405 481 490,8 460 603.8 Malaysia 288,6 _ 355 483 534 319 400 548 Philippines 94,0 92,3 99 88 97 103 124,5 Viet Nam 7,0 43,0 44,5 43 40,9 80 110,2 Nu'dc ^ \ 552,3 • Nguon: Duang Anh Tu, 2009 Vao giai doan nhiing nam 1970, Chinh phu dieu chinh cbinh sacb, cam nhap khau xe nguyen chiec, danh thue nhap khau cao neu khdng dung linb kien nudc da day cac nha san xuat chuyen dua cac cdng ty nudc nhung dai ly ban d td nhap khau dudi dang CKD Theo dng Pham Nggc Hai, nganh cong nghiep d td Indonesia la ket qua tac ddng qua lai giua cae nhan td nhu cau vdi cac nhan td chinh sacb bi anb budng bdi sy chia cat manh nhieu nhan bieu va kieu dang xe vdi doanh sd cua mdi loai xe rat thap Tfl day, cac nba san xuat kho phat trien va cdng nghiep pbu trg chi phat trien d mflc thap [Pham Nggc Hai, 2009] 2.5 Cong nghiep to Malaysia - mpt md Mnh bao hp toi da So vdi cac nudc khu vyc, tbi trucmg d to Malaysia kbdng nhd, phat trien edng nghiep to vdi cbinh sacb bao bd cao da tao dugc cdng in tugng d giai doan dau, nhung khdng miy kit qua md cfla hdi nhap nhiing nam sau Cdng nghiep d td Malayxia cung bat diu tfl lip rap; nhung nam 1970 ehinh sacb quy dinh ham lugng ndi dia hoa da day manh phat triln san xuit linh kien va phy tung nudc Thdi dilm licb sfl la viec ddi cfla lo^i xe binb dan gia re Proton Saga, dugc san xuat bang day chuyen san xuat nhap tbeo kieu chia khoa trao tay cfla hang Mitsubishi Viec Proton gia nhap tbi trudng d td ndi dia da gdp phan co cau lai nganb cdng nghiep d td chuyen tu lap rap sang san xuat che tao [Vietime, 2007] Dugc bao bd manh me, ddng xe Proton Malaysia dugc uu dai dac biet ve thue Cbinh phfl da ap dyng thul nhap khau va thue tieu thy dac biet cao gip - lan ddi vdi d td nhap khau nguyen chiec; thue nhap khau va tieu thy dac biet cung dugc ap dyng ddi vdi d.td dang CKD lip rap d nudc Cbinh sacb quy dinh ty le ndi dia san xuat d td phai chiem tfl 45% den 60%, song cdng nghiep phy trg chua phat trien kip nen cbinh sacb da bi bai bd tfl thang nam 2004 Mac dfl dugc Chinh phu bao hg, nhung ban than hang san xuat d td Proton la mgt doanh nghiep nha nudc, da phai vat ldn vdi nhieu khd khan, klidng tbi diu tu ddi mdi kip thdi nen kba nang canh tranh rat thap qua trinb bdi nhap sau vao nen kinb te khu vyc va the gidi Do vay, Chinh phfl da phai ban di mgt phan cho ddi tac nudc ngoal nham vyc day nganh cdng nghiep Cong nghiep to Viet Nam theo chien lugc va quy hoach den 2010 Thyc hien cuong ITnh phat trien qudc gia, vdi myc tieu trd tbanh nudc cdng nghiep theo hudng hien dai vao nam 2020, thang 12 nam 2002 Thfl tudng Chinb phfl da phe duyet chien lugc phat trien nganh cdng nghiep d td Viet Nam din 2010, tim nhin 2020 va tiep do, thang 10 nam 2004 cd quylt dinh phe duyet quy boach phat trien nganh cdng nghiep d td Viet Nam din 2010 Tbeo dd, cdng nghiep d td duqc coi la ngdnh cdng nghiip rdt quan trqng NhOng van de KINH TE VA CHl'NH TRj THE GlOl Sd (160) 2009- 77 Cdng nghiep d td Viet Nam khung hoang tal chinh cdn uu tiin phdt Iriin di gdp phdn phuc vu cd hiiu qud qud trinh cdng nghiip hod, hiin dgi hod vd xdy dung liim luc an ninh, qudc phdng cua ddt nu&c (Quylt dinh 175/2002/QD-TTg; Quylt dinh 117/2004/QD-TTg) Vai trd cfla cdng nghiep d td ludn dugc khang dinh cd vi tri then ehdt van tai dudng bd Vdi nang lye van tai ca nudc tren 317,3 trieu tan, dudng bd da chiem tren 66,8%>, dudng sdng bien khoang 30%, dudng sit 2,7%i va bang khdng mdi dat 0,3% Theo Cue Dang kiem Viet Nam, dau nam 2008, tong sd d td lun hanh ca nudc da len tren 805,5 nghin chiec, tang gan 23% so vdi cudi nam 2006 Vl lau dai, d td va van tai dudng bd van giu vai trd quan trgng nen kinh te [Vietnam Autoexpo, 2009] Thyc bien nhirng quyet dinh cfla Cbinh phfl, thai gian qua, cdng nghiep d td Viet Nam da cd nhieu chuyen bien Trong bdi canh khflng boang tai chinh va suy thoai kinh tl toan ciu tac ddng manh, myc tieu chfl ylu cfla nganh cflng dat dugc nhung kit qua kba quan Nam 2008 la nam dau tien cdng nghiep d td Viet Nam dat mflc san xuat va tieu thy tren 100 nghin xe/nam Phan tich ddng thai bien ddi tbi trudng d td nudc ta vdng 10 nam gin day cho thiy, giai doan 2003 din 2006 thi trucmg tieu thy ca nudc dao ddng tfl 41 nghin din 44 nghin xe/ nam; nam 2007, cd sy dot biln tang gip gin lan nam 2006, dat tren 80 nghin xe; nam 2008, mac dfl kinh tl gap nhilu kbd khan song lugng d td tieu thy van tang 39% so vdi nam 2007 va nam 2009 dugc dy bao cdn tilp tuc gia tang Cflng vdi so xe lun hanh lien tuc gia tang, lugng xe san xuat lap rap mdi cflng phat triln kba, nam 2006 cd tren 53,8 nghin xe, din 2007 tang len 104,4 nghin, nam 2008 dat tren 110 nghin va dy bao 2009 cflng dao ddng khoang 100 nghin xe/nam Mac dfl cd nhflng kit qua dang kbich le, song so vdi nhung myc tieu chiln lugc xay dyng va nhat la chi tieu ndi dia boa tbi mflc dat dugc cfla nganh dang cdn qua nhilu bit cap Dinh hu&ng sdn phdm chiin luqc phdt triin ngdnh d td Viet Nam din 2010 dd xdc dink tap Irung vdo sdn xudt cdc logi d td ihdng 78 dung vd chuyin diing cd gid cgnh tranh vd phii hqp v&i cdc diiu kiin cua Viet Nam Cy the hoa myc tieu chiln lugc nay, Dieu Quyet dinh 175/2002/QD-TTg, Thfl tudng Chinh phfl ehi ra, vao ndm 2010 phdi ddp img 80% nhu cdu nu&c ve sd luqng vd dgl ty le ndi dia hod 60% doi v&i logi xe phd thdng; dap ieng 60% nhu cdu nu&c ve sd luqng vd dgt ty li ndi dia hod 60% ddi v&i logi xe chuyin ditng (Xe phd thdng dugc hieu la nhiing xe chd ngudi va hang boa bao gdm ca cac loai xe con, xe buyt, xe tai cd sue cbd dudi tan vdi cdng suat ddng CO nhd, tdc thap, tien nghi va ngi that it sang trgng, gia ban phfl hgp vdi sue mua cfla da sd nhan dan) Nham thyc hien chien lugc phat trien nay, Quy hoach phat trien d td den nam 2010, tim nhin 2020 dy kien, den ndm 2010 sdn luqng d td cdc logi phdi dgl 239.000 chiic Trong 70,7%) la xe tai (chu yeu co nhd va tnmg binh), xe khach, xe chuyen dflng, xe chilm 29,3% Dang chfl y quy hoach nay, ddng xe tic din chd ngdi cd 10.000 chiic, chi chiim 4,I%o (Quylt dinh 177/2004/QD-TTg) Cho den chua cd nhtmg sd lieu thing ke cbinh thflc cdng bd, mat khac viec danh gia thyc hien quy hoach cbua tiln hanh nen nhflng nhan dinh cdn tbieu thong nhit, nhung bing nhung tu lieu hien cd va dgng thai xay dung nganh cdng nghiep d td thi nhung myc tieu dua chien lugc va quy boach khd cd diiu kien kha tbi, dac biet la vl chi tieu ndi dja hoa Hon 10 nam qua, mac dfl Chinh phfl da ap dyng nhieu chinh sach bao hd hit sflc uu ddi vdi cac lien doanh san xuit d td tai Viet Nam, song den nay, nudc ta van chua ed dugc mgt nganh cdng nghiep san xuit d td dflng nghTa Kit qua kiem tra cfla cac co quan chuc nang cho thiy, day chuyen san xuit lip rap cfla cac lien doanh tai Viet Nam chu ylu van la thfl cdng, ty le ndi dia hoa dat thip (dudi 10%o) va gia d td san xuit dang cdn d muc rit eao [Phan Dinh Tbi, 2009] Cac CO quan truyin thdng gin day cho bilt, nba san xuat se chuyin sang nhap khiu nlu Cbinh phfl khdng dua dugc chinh sacb nhit quan va khuyen khich, ho trg ddi vdi cdng -NhOng van de KINH TE VA CHfNH TRj THE Gidl Sd (160) 2009 Cong nghiep d td Vigt Nam khiing hoang tai chinh nghiep d td Hg eho ring, Chinh phfl nen coi ddng xe tu den cho ngdi la ddng xe chiln lugc cfla Viet Nam dl tap trung phat triln Theo cac nha quan ly cfla Bd Cdng thuong, tieu ehi cho ddng xe chien lugc can dya tren nang Iuc san xuat, kha nang canh tranh qudc gia, kha nang ndi dia hoa, sd thich kbacb bang va cac tieu chi an toan, mdi trudng, can ddi giua ky thuat va kinh tl [Duong Tfl Anb, 2009] Cd le, ly sau xa la ddng xe den cbd ngdi rat phd bien san xuat cfla cac bang ldn tren the gidi, dang la nhiing san pham chfl Iyc, chiem ty trgng cao nhat doanh sd ban hang cfla cac lien doanb nudc ngoai san xuat tai Viet Nam Trong san xuat d td, nhan td quan trgng la thi trudng va quy md san xuat De cd hieu qua kinh te, nha san xuat phai tim mgi each de td chflc san xuat bang loat vdi quy md Idn Mudi nSm trudc day, nghien cfln ve trien vgng cdng nghiep d td d Viet Nam, tbang nam 1998, Timothy J Sturgeon giang vien Dai hgc Masachusetts (My) nhan manb, de tao duge thi trucmg dfl Idn de cdng nghiep d td cd Igi nhuan thi GDP binh quan dau ngudi cfla mgt nude can vugt qua 1.000 USD/nam; mflc thu nhap binh quan len 4.000 USD/nam tbi nen cdng nghiep d td mdi cd the phat trien dugc nbanb Vdi tbu nhap binh quan dau ngudi nam 2008 d mflc 1.000 USD, tbi trudng d td Viet Nam bit dau rgng md; song so vdi cae nude khu vyc dang cdn nhd be va co bdi licb sfl se khdng lap lai nhu mdt sd nudc ASEAN da timg xay dung nganb cdng nghiep tfl 40,50 nam trudc Khdng it nha phan ticb cbo rang, lien doanh lap rap xe nude ngoai d Viet Nam hien qua nhieu so vdi thi trudng xe eao cap cdn nhd; lue ddng xe phd thdng cd nhu cau Idn Iai thieu nha san xuat va cung cap Tfl thyc te dien ra, gidi nghien cfln nhan thay, rat can xay dyng mgt nganb cdng nghiep d td budng vao nhung ddng xe va san pham dac thfl ma nhung nudc khac chua phat trien Con dudng phat triln cfla cong nghiep d td Viet Nam khdng tbi di theo each cfla cac nudc da phat trien, di bang cdng nghe va nhung san pham hg da timg lam de eanh tranh lai vdi chinh bg Hai loai md binh dang quan tam cfla khu vyc ASEAN la bao hg tdi da cfla Malaysia va md cfla tham gia vao chudi gia trj toan cau cfla Thai Lan, vdi Viet Nam hien deu khd van dimg vi licb su da hoan toan ddi khac Cac nha hoach dinh chien lugc nude ta da timg khuyen nghi, edng nghiep d td nudc nha nen di vao san xuat hai loai xe pbd thdng va xe chuyen dflng, cdn nhung ddng xe cao cap nen de cho cae lien doanh cd vdn dau tu nudc ngoai md rdng san xuat [Bd Cdng nghiep 2002] Dang tiec la nhflng khuyen nghi neu dugc van dyng san pham chien lugc quy hoach den nam 2010, nhung chua duge trien khai dflng hudng va cho den nay, van de ddng xe chfl Iyc cdng nghiep d td Iai trd van de ban cai Tren td Tin tflc xa Id mdi day, bai "Cdng nghiep d td van mfl md ddng xe chfl lye", cac nha phan tich cbo rang, dfl da cd 15 nam phat trien, song den cac nba lam cbinh sach nganh d td mdi giat minh trudc cau hdi Ddu la ddng xe chit luc cua Viit Nam? Tai Hdi thao "Dinh hudng ddng xe chfl lye cfla nhdm xe du lieh nganh cdng nghiep d td Viet Nam" td chflc thang nam 2009, van de quan tam, dugc du luan xa bgi dat la, phai chang ddng xe tfl den chd ngdi, dugc san xuat pbd bien d nhung nudc da phat trien se la ddng xe chfl Iyc can dugc uu tien hd trg d nudc ta? Ld trinb giam thue tbeo cac dieu kien cam ket khu vyc va WTO da bat dau cd bieu lye, vdi mflc thue nhap kbau 70% chi cdn den nam 2014 va xudng 0% vao nam 2018, nhung nhung dudng hudng de phat trien cdng nghiep d td nudc van chua rd rang Dan ldi cua nhung nha quan ly tai ehinh qudc gia, vdi nhung lo lang cdng nghiep d td Viet Nam di vao khflng hoang, ngudn tin tfl td Lao Ddng cbo rang, vdi qua nhieu uu dai, nhung sau mudi may nam ke tfl lap cac lien doanh san xuat, cac doanb nghiep mdi chi NhOng van de KINH TE VA CHfNH TRj THE GICJI Sd (160) 2009- 79 Cdng nghiep d td Viet Nam khung hoangjai chinh thilt lap dugc cdng nghiep lip rap thay vi xay dyng mdt nganh cdng nghiep san xuit d td cdng nghiep d td nhu cam ket phat tnen lau dai [Ketoantruong.com, 2009] Nhieu chuyen gia den da nhan rang, viec thyc hien cac chinh sach uu dai cfla Viet Nam da tao -ra nhu'ng tac dyng ngugc va doanh nghiep da lgi dyng bien Igi nhuan trudc mit ma khdng xay dyng nganb Jhuc trang cin dugc suy ngam mgt each ^j^^^ j ^ o dl tim giai phap thilt thyc viec (jjgu chinh bd sung va thyc hien quy hoach cdng nghiep d td cho nam cdn lai 2010 va ehuan bi cho giai doan mdi vdi tam nhin 2020* Tdi lieu tham khdo: Quyet dinh cfla Thfl tudng Chinh phfl phe duyet Chiln lugc phat trieii nganb cdng nghiep d td Viet Nam din nam 2010, tim nhin 2020 Quylt dinh sd 175/2002/QD-TTg 03 tbang 12 nam 2002 Quyet dinh cfla Thfl tudng Cbinh phfl vl viec phe duyet Quy hoach phat trien nganh cdng nghiep d td Viet Nam din 2010, tim nhin din 2020 Quylt dinh so 177/2004/QD-TTg 05 tbang 10 nam 2004 Bd Cdng nghiep Viet Nam (2002): Chiin luqc phdt Iriin ngdnh cdng nghiip d td VietNam dfc'w 2(}70 ('Dy thao) Ha Ndi, thang •' Du Qudc Thinh (2009); Ngdnh cdng nghiip d td Irong khung hodng kinh li todn cdu Ha Ngi, tbang Duong Tfl Anh (2009): Lua chqn ddng xe chiin luqc chuan bi cho giai dogn Motorization, Ha Ndi, tbang 6 wvvw.ketoatruong.com.vn: Cdng nghiip cap nbat 03 thang nam 2009 d td Viet Nam bdt ddu cupc khung hodng? , ,^ Kieu Oanh (2009): Cuu ngdnh d td kieu Tnmg Quoc, Vn Economy thang i.-f Kim Anh (2009): O td gid re, cude cgnh tranh khdc Hit, Dat Viet Online 14 thang Phan Dinh Tbi (2009): Phdi chdng chinh sdch thui cd ldc ddng t&i dinh hu&ng phdt triin ngdnh cdng' nghiip d td Viet Nam ndi chung vd cdc ddng xe chu luc ndi rieng Ha Ndi, thang 10 Pham Nggc Hai (2009): Bdi hqc kinh nghiim cua cdc nu&c Irong phdt Iriin cdng nghiip d Id, Ha Ndi, thang ngdnh 11 Tran Thuy (2009): Ngdnh cdng nghiip d td se di vi ddu, Vietnamnet.com, 03 tbang 12 bttp://vvww.vietime.com (2007): Ngdnh cdng nghiip d td Viil Nam: Bi tdc, 03 thang 13 http://www.vntrades.com (2009): Gidc ma vi ngdnh cdng nghiep d ^d.ngay 10 thang 14 Viet Nam Autoexpo (2009): Ndng luc van chuyin hdng hod cdc logi phuang tiin giao thdng tgi Viil Nam, Ha Ndi, tbang " Le Thanh Y Hpi thong tin vd tu lieu Khoa hgc cong nghe Viet Nam 80 -NhOng van de KINH TEVA CHINH TRj THE Gidl So (160) 2009 ... nghin xe/ nam; nam 2007, cd sy dot biln tang gip gin lan nam 2006, dat tren 80 nghin xe; nam 2008, mac dfl kinh tl gap nhilu kbd khan song lugng d td tieu thy van tang 39% so vdi nam 2007 va nam 2009... nghin din 690 nghin xe /nam -NhOng van de KINH Tfi''VA CHINH TRj THEGldl So (160) 2009 Cdng nghigp d to Vidt Nam khung hoang tai chinh Trong khung hoang tai chinh va suy thoai kinh te toan cau, dl... qua kba quan Nam 2008 la nam dau tien cdng nghiep d td Viet Nam dat mflc san xuat va tieu thy tren 100 nghin xe /nam Phan tich ddng thai bien ddi tbi trudng d td nudc ta vdng 10 nam gin day cho